Like you said, some reputable sources - including Charlie - have suggested that MHJ/Nabers is closer to a WR1a/WR1b situation than WR1/WR2, with Nabers possibly even ahead of MHJ on a few boards. This begs the question: If things got weird at #4 and ARI opted for Nabers, do you think the Chargers would take MHJ over Bowers at #5? I do, and I think most would agree. Assuming MHJ and Nabers have similar grades, why is the idea of of the Chargers taking Nabers at 1.5 not as "obvious"? Mike Williams is as good as gone and there's no guarantee that Keenan Allen or Quinton Johnston will be rostered by '25.
While I don't disagree that Harbaugh values the TE in his scheme, I think the primary schematic goal is to achieve run/pass balance, with an emphasis on overall physicality. I don't think that necessarily makes WR a lesser priority.
During his relatively short run in SF, Harbaugh - even with 2009 1.10 pick Michael Crabtree at WR1 and Frank Gore the established offensive fulcrum - annually made aggressive moves in an attempt to level up the passing attack, including everything from burning a 2012 1st-rounder on A.J Jenkins, to contracts for vets Mario Manningham and Anquan Boldin, and even luring Randy Moss out of retirement for a cup of coffee in 2012. In contrast, the only TE transaction made during Harbaugh's tenure was 2013 Day Two pick Vance McDonald, a 6-4/267, physical successor to Vernon Davis who was more serviceable than star.
Even at Michigan, Harbaugh was a balanced recruiter and annually signed 4 and 5-star WR preps and transfers. Roman Wilson, A.J. Henning, Tyler Morris, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, Cornellus Johnson, etc., were all blue-chip recruits. 2017 signee Donovan Peoples-Jones was generally ranked as WR1/WR2 overall in his class.
I don't disagree that Harbaugh would love Bowers, but I think he could love a Day Two prospect like Ben Stinnott just as much if not more, as he would come at a more reasonable value range, would bring more physical in-line blocking and is closer to the physical TE profile Harbaugh has traditionally sought (6-4 to 6-6/255ish).
@Mr. Bitter I personally agree that Bowers will be valued less than Nabers and, actually, Odunze too. However, my latest mock has Minnesota trading up to #5 (and giving up #42) for McCarthy and Bowers lasting until #11...to the Chargers, which would make a lot of sense.
I'm not convinced that the ATL/Cousins reports aren't just being put out there as negotiation leverage. It's becoming more and more common for guys like Rapoport, Florio, King, etc, to be utilized in that capacity. It's naive to think otherwise.
I'm still confident MIN resigns Cousins. What's being kinda forgotten in the excitement for a potential QB landscape shakeup is just how much Cousins was thriving in O'Connell's system before the injury. He's a great culture and system fit in Minnesota. To give that up and trade precious draft assets to move up for a maybe like Maye or McCarthy at 1.5 is basically saying to '25 free agent Justin Jefferson (who loves Cousins) "we're packing it in for a while". It just doesn't make sense - unless the plan in MIN is to just blow it up and rebuild.
I do agree that 1.5 is an obvious trade down spot though, especially with JJ McCarthy's stock taking on so much helium lately. I have to think Hortiz/Harbaugh are just itching to rebuild the O-line and defense. Thing is, they currently have the worst cap situation in the NFL and no extra draft picks. They have to find a way to get more '24 Day Two dart throws and maybe even some extra '25 draft ammo. With Tuipulotu ready to start, I'm guessing either Mack or Bosa is traded, which could fetch a Day Two pick, but more is needed.
Unless they are absolutely in love with Nabers or Bowers, or have one particular OT graded much higher than the rest of the pack, I think the Chargers would be good trading down as far as 1.16, where at least one of the similarly graded, physical RTs (Alt, Fuaga, Mims, Latham) could still be available. Even one or more of Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu or Byron Murphy II could still be on the board.
I think SEA is the most likely team to sell the farm and trade up to 1.5 for Maye or McCarthy. Not because they're the most QB-desperate team, but because they're the team most ideally situated to let Maye or McCarthy sit and learn for a while. They also offer a buffet of offensive talent for when that QB is ready to enter the lineup. Giving up the premium picks it would take to jump up that high would sting for SEA, but now would be the time to do it. They have an ideal bridge QB, and their most pressing needs are at S, LB, IOL - positions that can be addressed with mid-round picks or even a few savvy, buy-low cap casualty pickups.
@Mr. Bitter I think the Vikes coaching staff is interested in having Cousins back, sure. But Adofo-Mensah is an analytics guy. I just have the sense that he's not willing to offer more than 1 guaranteed year this time. And that he wants to try the whole "QB on a rookie deal and build up the rest of the roster" thing. And I'm confident that ATL will offer more than 1 guaranteed year. I think they are tired of losing in a winnable division, the roster is actually in decent shape, and the scheme is perfect for Cousins because it's essentially going to be the same offense. They'll be the clear favorite in that division with him.
Oh, and I'm watching Seattle for Penix, not to move up for one of the top 4 QB's. You know, the Ryan Grubb connection. I don't think they would necessarily take him at 16, but perhaps a trade down and then still taking him in the late 1st could work.
That's all true about ATL/Cousins. It's all gonna depend on where Cousins wants to be. We'll find out soon enough.
SEA/Penix makes sense. It'll all depend on which QB Schneider is most smitten with. Personally, I think it's time to think big at QB for SEA.
If MIN's plan is to build around a rookie QB, I'm not sure why they're currently doing stuff like banging out a new contract with Justin Jefferson and reworking Marcus Davenport's deal. Jefferson is going to want out if Cousins walks, in which case MIN should already be looking into trading JJ (bumping Jordan Addison to WR1) and stockpiling some of that premium draft currency they know they're going to lose in a trade up to the top five. (They already have no 3rd-rounder as it is.) And dead weight like Davenport should just be cut if Adofo-Mensah is intent on a reset.
Adofo-Mensah better be careful. Cousins was arguably the best QB in the NFC before his injury. Odds are he's not going to get that out of the 3rd or 4th QB off the board. Definitely not in '24, and likely never. I get financial responsibility, but a GM has to find balance and know when to take his shots, otherwise you get stuck in terminal Tampa Bay Rays-style wheel spinning. You lose your stars, and eventually your fan base.
I think you're underestimating Chop Robinson's potential. His Combine numbers weren't just good, they were revolutionary. He posted the best speed/explosion numbers for a 250 lb + prospect since Vernon Davis in 2003. His 4.48 forty, 1.54 10-yd split and 10-8 broad jump are ridiculous for an EDGE, and superhuman at 255 lbs. Chop's Combine numbers were nearly identical to Bijan Robinson's, only Chop is 40 lbs heavier.
I also wouldn't say he was unproductive in '23. More context is needed there. Robinson was battling injuries yet still had stretches were he was so thoroughly dominant from the edge that teams would often take the action away from his side or even abandon the pass altogether. (Even Michigan.) His counting numbers weren't up there with Latu and Verse, but keep in mind that Chop was banged up and is three years younger than those guys. Chop still recorded a 92.3 PFF pass-rush grade in '23 (4th-best among EDGEs, ahead of Verse and Turner) and posted a 92 + PFF pass-rush grade since the beginning of '22 (second only to Latu in college football). In '23, Chop had a 90.8 overall PFF grade (11th out of 836 EDGE players) and nation-best 20.9% pass-rush win rate. PFF rated him 2023's 35th-most valuable player in the nation - regardless of position - in their year end, metrics-weighted top 100 most valuable players list. All this while just 20 years old and battling through injury. I'll be stunned if Robinson isn't drafted in the top-16.
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One more nitpick:
Like you said, some reputable sources - including Charlie - have suggested that MHJ/Nabers is closer to a WR1a/WR1b situation than WR1/WR2, with Nabers possibly even ahead of MHJ on a few boards. This begs the question: If things got weird at #4 and ARI opted for Nabers, do you think the Chargers would take MHJ over Bowers at #5? I do, and I think most would agree. Assuming MHJ and Nabers have similar grades, why is the idea of of the Chargers taking Nabers at 1.5 not as "obvious"? Mike Williams is as good as gone and there's no guarantee that Keenan Allen or Quinton Johnston will be rostered by '25.
While I don't disagree that Harbaugh values the TE in his scheme, I think the primary schematic goal is to achieve run/pass balance, with an emphasis on overall physicality. I don't think that necessarily makes WR a lesser priority.
During his relatively short run in SF, Harbaugh - even with 2009 1.10 pick Michael Crabtree at WR1 and Frank Gore the established offensive fulcrum - annually made aggressive moves in an attempt to level up the passing attack, including everything from burning a 2012 1st-rounder on A.J Jenkins, to contracts for vets Mario Manningham and Anquan Boldin, and even luring Randy Moss out of retirement for a cup of coffee in 2012. In contrast, the only TE transaction made during Harbaugh's tenure was 2013 Day Two pick Vance McDonald, a 6-4/267, physical successor to Vernon Davis who was more serviceable than star.
Even at Michigan, Harbaugh was a balanced recruiter and annually signed 4 and 5-star WR preps and transfers. Roman Wilson, A.J. Henning, Tyler Morris, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, Cornellus Johnson, etc., were all blue-chip recruits. 2017 signee Donovan Peoples-Jones was generally ranked as WR1/WR2 overall in his class.
I don't disagree that Harbaugh would love Bowers, but I think he could love a Day Two prospect like Ben Stinnott just as much if not more, as he would come at a more reasonable value range, would bring more physical in-line blocking and is closer to the physical TE profile Harbaugh has traditionally sought (6-4 to 6-6/255ish).