@The Champ 

No doubt LT is in play for the Rams. I imagine it would be Mims or Guyton. I can't see any of Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fauga, Latham being on the board at 1.19.

I just wonder what they'll do about EDGE then. Maybe Marshawn Kneeland in the 2nd? Maybe he could play that Elephant OLB role opposite Byron Young. Chris Braswell? They really need more pass-rushing juice with no Aaron Donald and no Raheem Morris manufacturing pressure with smoke and mirrors.

I just noticed that IND's odds of drafting a TE first went from +425 to +250 overnight, while the Jets odds for drafting a TE actually went from +130 to +135, with O-line now at -105. Colts trade up for Bowers?

@Mr. Bitter The Colts have been aggressive before, so that's within the realm of possibility, sure.  I still doubt that the Jets are going to go OL, but maybe Douglas has more job security than I think.  (If they do trade back to 15, that could still put them in the range of Brian Thomas Jr.)  

I agree that it's unlikely that Latham is there at 19 for the Rams, and I'm not sure that they would take more of a RT guy like Fuaga if he happened to be there.  I'm kind of going back and forth on my Rams pick with this Schrager stuff out there.  It may not be offense, but if it is, I think I might be between Thomas Jr., Mims, or Guyton, if all 3 are there.  And I do think that a trade down is a definite possibility, because Snead loves to work the board during drafts.  

@The Champ 

If the Jets don't make the playoffs in '24, Douglas/Saleh are gone. No doubt in my mind. A trade down for BTJ makes sense. I think he's relatively unrefined and it's questionable whether he would make an instant impact, but not all agree with that assessment.

I think the Giants would take Odunze over Nabers. As you suggested, Odunze would better diversify the WR corps, and I think the character concerns with Nabers could be a sticking point with an organization as conservative as the Giants.

There is a surprise faller or two in every draft. IMO, the most likely candidates this year are Turner, Nabers and Bowers. Guys that could go much higher than their position O/U: Murphy II, Mims, Chop, Latu.

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, for possible fallers I'm going with Bowers and Turner.  John Daigle just released a mock where he had Turner in the 20's, and he had the most accurate mock in the industry last year, I believe. 

I'm going to go with Newton as a potential riser going much earlier than expected.  He could really be this year's Kancey (who went 19th last year).  The league has told us that DT is a premium position, and Newton is awesome on film.  He could be someone that I have moving up between now and draft day.  I don't think he gets out of the 1st Round; I think that's easy money.  

What you say about the Giants has logic, and it wouldn't surprise me.  That said, I think that most teams have Nabers higher than him and I even buy the talk that many have him over MHJ, so if he happens to be on the board at 7, the Titans are going to get a lot of calls.  However, I still think that they would pick Alt in that scenario, and then Atlanta could trade out of 8 with all sorts of teams likely wanting Nabers.  CHI, NYJ, ARZ/LAC (whichever team ends up at 11 after trading down with MIN), IND, JAX, LAR, PIT, DAL, and BUF all come to mind.  (Think of how much they could potentially get out of some of those teams picking later if they were willing to move down that far.)  I really feel like the WR3 is going to go at #8, with a team trading up.  I don't think Atlanta would have given $26MM guaranteed to Mooney if they knew that one of the top 3 WR's were still very likely to be on the board at 8.  Hell, maybe they'll still pick the WR.  That ATL offense would be a hell of a lot of fun, that's for sure.  

@The Champ 

I don't know about you, but I'm currently chin-deep in draft scenarios/puzzle solving. So much fun. Truly the most wonderful time of the year.

Bill Belichick recently stated that everything draftniks hear this time of year is agent-fed, and only what you hear 12 hours or less before the draft can be trusted. I don't think that's 100% true, but I'd say it's about 90% true. About a week out is when I go into "chaos mode". That's when I heavily filter the rumors and speculation, take a step back from all the comfortable consensus, and really try to sniff out the uncomfortable and not-yet-thought-of picks/trades that would initially shock, but then make you think, "Yeah, that actually makes sense". Because that's what happens in the real draft.

Last year around this time I started kicking around the idea of HOU drafting Stroud then trading up for Will Anderson. (I can't remember if it was you or NoHeroes, but I bounced the idea off of one of you guys in the comment section for a day or two.) I was convinced the trade was going to happen and made it a permanent part of my mock, but like a moron I deferred to Lance Zierlein's faulty Texans intel at the very last moment and removed the trade from my contest mock. I don't want to make the same mistake this year. That's why I pick your brain. (Probably too often. Sorry.) You think logically but outside the box. So many mocks just copy the media consensus. Those mocks are always wrong, so why do people keep going down that road?

Anyway, here are my two candidates to be the agents of chaos that throw everyone's 2024 top 10 into disarray:

1) The Patriots at 1.03.

I'm pretty sure Williams/Daniels go 1/2, and I believe Charlie Campbell when he says NE would prefer Daniels to Maye/McCarthy but be "okay" with QB3. But I still have my doubts whether the Pats like Maye/McCarthy better than MHJ or even Joe Alt.

For me, drafting Maye/McCarthy over MHJ or Alt is a pretty healthy reach. I get that standard rules go out the window when you desperately need a QB, but the Pats also desperately need a WR1 and LT. If I was a Pats fan, I think I would be more excited about -- let's say -- MHJ or Alt at 1.03 and a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Penix than Maye/McCarthy at 1.03 and Kingsley Suamataia at 2.34. or a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Tyler Guyton. I still think QB-QB-QB-MHJ is most likely, but I'm getting less comfortable with it by the day.

2) Joe Alt/Teams that need a LT

I just don't think the 1.07 TEN/Alt chalk is going to happen. It almost seems like when folks are creating their mocks, they're inking that pick in first then working around it. There are just too many plausible scenarios that take Alt off the board by then.

Alt to NE at 1.03. Extreme longshot, but possible.

Alt to LAC at 1.05. VERY possible. Hortiz is a Ravens guy. (I don't need to reel off examples...you know how highly BAL values O-line on draft day.) I also don't need to tell you how perfectly Alt fits the profile of a Harbaugh OT...or how the Ravens and Harbaugh have historically built their team identity through a dominant O-line/defense, etc, etc.

Alt at 1.06. This seems an obvious scenario to me, but I've never seen a single mock with a team trading right ahead of TEN for Alt. Alt (or MHJ) is arguably the cleanest blue chip in this draft; teams are going to want to move up for him, and they all know where they need to go to get him.

I think you're on to something with your CHI/Fashanu pick. Braxton Jones has surprised, but if you're Ryan Poles and in range for a perennial Pro Bowl LT, you go for it without a second thought to Jones. I say why not take it one step further? With Caleb Williams and that defense, the Bears aren't going to be in range for a LT of Alt's quality for a long time, and franchise LTs simply don't reach the open market. (While Pro Bowl WRs are traded constantly and high-quality WR draft prospects seem increasingly plentiful by the year.) Why not use that extra '25 2nd -rounder from CAR, move up to 1.06 for Alt and ensure Caleb William's edge protection is air-tight for the next decade? At 1.09, the Giants could draft Brock Bowers. Darren Waller is finished, and it seems every organizational move the Giants make lately just mimics what the Buffalo Bills did yesterday. The Giants could run their offense through Bowers just as BUF will run theirs through Dalton Kincaid. 

The Saints could also move up to 1.06 for Alt. They've made their bed with Derek Carr, and he has no chance without vast and immediate OT upgrades. The Saints currently don't have a viable LT option on their roster. There's no guarantee Fashanu makes it to them at 1.14 and Fashanu is far from a sure thing anyway. There will be O-linemen popping off like crazy in the teens, but Troy Fautanu is the only one ready to man LT and he may not meet NO's size standards.

@Mr. Bitter For me this is truly the most wonderful time of the year.  There's just nothing like it.  All of the possible scenarios you throw out there aren't without logic, and anything can happen.  Still, I just think we're going to see the QB's go 1-2-3, with no one trading back.  I think in most years, the top 3 guys (assuming McCarthy is QB4) would be the #1 overall pick.  If you're Washington and New England, you just have no idea if you are going to have access to a QB like this again.  It could take 10, 20 years.  The position is, essentially, everything.  So even though players like the top 3 WR's and Alt clearly have much safer floors (as well as great ceilings), ultimately, they aren't QB's.  So I don't see the top 3 teams trading back.  

At 4 is where it starts to get interesting, for me.  I've been projecting that Arizona will trade down with Minnesota for weeks, and I still absolutely believe it makes the most sense.  However, of course it's possible that Minnesota didn't actually get a promise (especially if Schefter is correct, though I sometimes doubt his draft-related reporting because he's ultimately working for the network that's televising the event), and if that's the case, it could mean that Arizona will stick and pick a WR for itself, or, of course, they could still trade down with another team that wants to come up for the QB, with the Giants making the most sense there (allowing Arizona to still get one of the top 2 WR).  

I think the Chargers would pick MHJ over Alt (I agree with Jurecki), but it's not like anyone could be shocked if they chose Alt.  Now, if MHJ goes at 4, my strong belief is that the Chargers would trade back with Minnesota.  Alt is the OT1, but I think Harbaugh would love Fuaga or Latham as his RT at 11, and then they'd have another pick at 23 (and another one at 37) to open their draft.  It would also give them the option to try to trade back up for the WR3 at 8, should they pursue that option, as there should still be viable RT's on the board at 23.  

The Giants trading back and then taking Bowers is sound logic.  I like it, actually.  I'm probably not going to mock it, but I do like it.  I also like the thought of Chicago leaping the Titans to pick Alt at 6, I really do.  As I stated in my blurb about them going with Fashanu, I think they are committed with the first 2 picks on going offense.  Of course an edge rusher would help, but the defense is already going to be really good.  A top-tier WR or a top LT make all the sense in the world for them.  My only question is wondering if CAR's 2025 2nd is enough for the Giants, but it's probably fair on the trade chart.  I wonder if the Giants would rather take something like #75 this year and, say, a 2025 Bears 3rd rounder.  In any case, I could see Chicago and the Giants agreeing to this if the Giants aren't absolutely sold on one of the top 3 WR; they'd have to think that Bowers is pretty close to them, obviously.  

I'd be surprised if the Saints moved up.  They don't have enough draft capital as it is, and I still think they'll have a fine blocker there at 14.  Especially with Ramcyzk's issues, I'm not sure that it would be a blow to them to take a RT.  And Latham may be there and I think he might be able to play LT.  

One last thing:  the more I think about it, I think the Rams will end up with Mims, Worthy, or Guyton.  

@The Champ 

I've seriously considered Worthy for the Rams. They still need that speed element. He could be everything Tutu Atwell was supposed to be and then some.

BUF and KC are still the betting favorites for Worthy, but I don't see it. The Bills need more size at WR and KC signed Hollywood Brown. I think Worthy is destined for CIN, LAR, IND, CAR or SF, with MIA the dark horse. (If/when they pay Tua, one of Hill or Waddle will have to go. Keeping both won't be financially feasible.)

I agree that CHI's need for an EDGE is being somewhat overstated. Sweat is obviously EDGE1 and making EDGE1 money, and in Eberflus' scheme the second DE spot has always been a run-contain/DPR platoon. A Day Two prospect like Jonah Ellis could work in that DPR role to complement DeMarcus Walker. If the Bears trade down, my guy Chop Robinson would be picture perfect in that DPR role. Chop will never be an edge-setting 4-3 DE, but if you're looking for a guy to just pin his ears back and run at the QB, he's that guy. If Chop can develop an inside counter or two instead of just running the arc, he'd be absolutely lethal in that role.

As for the QBs at 1-2-3, we might just disagree on Drake Maye. I just don't see it with him, and the transferable metrics are unkind. The Herbert/Allen comps seem extremely generous to me. Charlie Campbell's hot press report that teams see Maye as being closer to Daniel Jones/Will Levis than Herbert/Allen sounds about right, IMO. I obviously won't let my personal bias prevent me from slotting Maye in the top 3 if Vegas odds suggest that's the way the wind is blowing, but I'll probably be skeptical right up until the draft.

I'm going to set aside a bit of time this weekend to thoroughly analyze the veteran trade market and each team's salary allocation and how that might impact the draft. I think people too often forget that some of these premium picks will be traded for vets, and that teams often pass on filling obvious needs in order to draft BPA at premium positions as a hedge against incumbents on the verge of becoming very expensive. (Especially for teams with a high-salary QB. Financial flexibility at premium positions is crucial for them.) This kinda overlaps with my LAC/Alt argument. I think Hortiz/Harbaugh could trade Rashawn Slater during this draft. I really do. Slater is a dependable LT, but he's going into his contract year and hasn't been the same since a season-ending ruptured biceps tendon in WK 3 of the '22 season and ensuing high ankle sprain issues. Are we sure that Hortiz/Harbaugh/Roman will be okay on resetting the OT market with Slater considering his downward career arc, substandard size and '23 PFF run-blocking grade of 59.5? I could see the Chargers draft Alt then trade Slater to WAS for DT Jonathan Allen and more Day 2 ammo.

@Mr. Bitter Your thoughts on Alt/Slater are interesting, but I'm all aboard the MHJ train and MIN trading into 4, as you know.  If they trade Slater, they are still short a RT (Pipkins is terrible).  I think the idea would be to pair Slater with Alt, if they took him.  

Among the top 4 QB's, my biggest concern from a scouting standpoint (and I say this not claiming to be a scouting guru, as I am more of a mock draft guru) is actually with Daniels.  I could totally see Maye busting, don't get me wrong.  But he has the physical tools and I do see some Josh Allen in him; Allen was also considered to be inaccurate coming out of Wyoming.  But in getting back to Daniels, his sack rate under pressure is over a certain threshold where almost every QB has busted over the past 10-15 years.  Fields and Malik Willis were on this list recently, but there have been so many others.  I can't remember what the exact percentage is, but yes, Daniels was over the threshold, and, again, it's not just the number of sacks taken, it's the percentage of the sacks when there's actually pressure.  This might be the best predictor of busting that I've found.  It may suggest that you won't process or see the field well at the NFL level, when you're much less likely to have a clean pocket for as long as you do in college.  

One more thing.  I noted that I thought it was odd that Turner's O/U was 9.5 with no juice to either side, yet he was still -225 to be a top 10 pick.  Well, that has now normalized, because he's dropped to just Even money to be a top 10 pick now.  

@The Champ 

Yeah, Trey Pipkins shouldn't be starting. (Jamaree Syler, either.)

My thinking with the hypothetical Slater trade is LAC would receive Jonathan Allen along with WAS's 2.36 or 2.40. (Slater is just 25 and Allen is 29/expensive, so I think the compensation is fair.)

With one of WAS's 2nd RD picks to go along with their native pick at 2.37, I'm guessing the Chargers would be able to net Kingsley Suamataia for RT, or perhaps even Tyler Guyton in a moderate trade up into the late 1st RD. At the very worst, they could still come out of Day 2 with an upside RT prospect like Rosengarten, Brandon Coleman, etc. A cheap, risk/reward one-year bridge like slobberknocker Jack Conklin could easily be added, allowing Suamataia to ease in at RG for a season. There are options.

Bottom line: Harbaugh has a very specific vision and wants his kinda guys to build around Herbert. (Also, there's no way Harbaugh goes into next season without an interior DL linchpin.) My approach to the LAC draft is that NO starter from the prior regime is safe, especially if they're expensive or about to become expensive. They're tradeable assets. Hell, Keenan Allen was Herbert's one-and-only security blanket and Hortiz/Harbaugh banished him without hesitation.  

I'm no QB expert, either. I played a little and like to think I've learned a thing or two having spent an unhealthy amount of hours over the years soaking up QB-specific breakdowns from evaluators I respect, but there are mechanical nuances that I'm still iffy on. More importantly, I'm not privy to interviews/whiteboard sessions. So much of QB success is dependent on the prospect's character and whether or not the environment he's drafted into is optimal for his development. It's a crapshoot. The historic bust rate for 1st RD QBs reflects that.

With all that said, I'll add this: While I have my doubts about Drake Maye (plus arm/mobility - not elite, IMO. Not Josh Allen. Questionable accuracy/decision-maker, poor on-target % from clean pocket), Daniels is even riskier. Your critique of Daniels was being kind, as you didn't even mention his frame or his hesitance/lack of anticipation when working the middle of the field. I'm familiar with the Daniels/sack rate under pressure info, and it's alarming. It also totally checks out on tape. With Daniels, it's so often look-look, eyes down and dip. Often right into a sack. Sure, sometimes he works his way through the backfield congestion and into the open field for a highlight run, but that won't happen as often in the NFL, and when it does, he will be severely punished if he doesn't learn to protect himself. He's so skinny. Reports say he sometimes played at 190 last year. That's absolutely terrifying. He's approaching 24 and not likely to get much bigger. His Pro Day was almost sad. He's skinny, he knows he's skinny and he was obviously trying to hide it.

So yeah, high bust potential with both Maye and Daniels, which is why I'm not absolutely convinced NE won't take MHJ at 1.03 then target Penix or Nix later on.

What I find very odd is that - for all of Daniels' red flags - it's Maye that's constantly given the fine-tooth comb treatment from the media, while Daniels' even more alarming concerns go relatively unmentioned. The media just hums along as if Daniels at 1.02 is a given. I'm not sure that it is.

@The Champ 

There's been some schizophrenic odds on the EDGE prospects. Some mixed messages on Verse right now.

You appear to be right about Turner slipping. Something weird is going on with ATL. Almost overnight, their first position drafted odds went from DL/EDGE -225 and OL +1100 to DL/EDGE -180 and OL +525 (!!). With Cousins now hogging up all that cap, could ATL be looking to take advantage of the bountiful OL crop and get cheaper at OT by drafting Fashanu or Latham to replace McGary at RT and then perhaps Matthews at LT a few years down the line? That scenario has crossed my mind a few times. McGary is overpriced and a very Arthur Smith-specific RT.

@The Champ

Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder if CHI will go O-line. Poles is a trenches guy all the way, and doing everything possible to make Caleb Williams' protection airtight will always be a good idea. It all comes down to whether they're confident that Braxton Jones' overachievement is sustainable. If they aren't, Fautanu is a dark horse at 1.09. At worst, Fautanu could be a Joe Thuney-type LG, with Jenkins moving to RG.

You're right about that ATL/CHI/NYJ cluster -- one of those teams is likely to trade out.

I seriously doubt the Jets go O-line. They like '23 3rd-rounder Carter Warren as depth. It's either Bowers or Odunze/Nabers for them. I could see NY trading UP for one of the WRs. There is no tomorrow for the Jets right now.

The Dallas Turner number is interesting, as is Latu and Verse making a late kick to close the gap on Turner at 1.08/First EDGE Drafted. Turner is very similar to Arnold Ebiketie -- perhaps ATL would prefer a more polished EDGE to complement Ebiketie. They're kinda in win-now mode with Cousins.

If DEN doesn't make a move for a QB, I could see Sean Payton liking Bowers as a quasi-Taysom Hill. Pretty sure DEN will make a move for a QB though. They've painted themselves into a corner. If they don't come out of this draft with QB1, what other options are there? Ryan Tannehill? Davis Mills? Blech. If it comes to that, they may as well trade Bolles, Sutton and Surtain and start all over.

Bowers/LAR is very intriguing. The Rams put very little stock into testing numbers and I don't think they're counting on Tyler Higbee going forward. Bowers would be a perfect complement to in-line TE Colby Parkinson in 2-TE sets.

I respect Charlie Campbell and don't doubt that he's sourced, but I think Charlie's NYJ/Bowers/Odunze take is probably just a logical deduction. With Saleh/Douglas on the hot seat, Rodgers nearly 41 and Mike Williams an injury waiting to happen, everyone kinda knows the Jets are all-in and focused on obtaining one more weapon for Rodgers.

I take Schrager's reports with a grain of salt. Check out his late mocks from last year. There were...not very accurate.

@Mr. Bitter I did see that Schrager's mock last year wasn't good, but that was awfully strong language.  So, I guess we'll see.  I agree that Denver just has to get a QB early.  Taking Nix at 12 would be really gross, however.  I'm guessing that they desperately would like to trade down, and at least if they end up taking Nix in the 20's, let's say, they will have procured another pick out of it.  I already had them trading down to 25 in my mock in a projected trade with Green Bay, but I changed the mock to them taking Nix not with the pick at 25, but with the 2nd round pick they'd get from the Packers at 41.  I believe Penix will go in the 1st, and 6 QB's in the 1st just feels like too much, when I consider everything.  

@The Champ 

Bo Nix at 1.12 is a fireable offense. Comically low ADOT and when forced out of that comfort zone he's observably anxious. Even at the Senior Bowl.

Some concerning transferable metrics and obviously the injury history, but Lord Almighty does Penix have an arm. Just incredible. How do you not take a chance on him in the 1st RD? Not buying the "elite supporting cast" stuff, either. Even on a woefully outclassed Indiana squad, I remember Penix giving the Buckeyes all they could handle. 

@Mr. Bitter Yeah I'm with you on Penix.  Are there some concerns?  Sure.  He's an older prospect, though we aren't talking Chris Weinke or Brandon Weeden old.  He's had the two ACL injuries, but at the same time, he's a QB, not a RB or WR, and running a 4.4 certainly shows he's not a statue back there.  Are there some concerns that he doesn't operate as effectively under pressure?  Sure, but you can say that about most QB's, including guys like Jared Goff, who has been to a Super Bowl and a conference title game.  Given how important having a QB is, I think he's worth the shot for any of the QB-needy teams not picking in the top 3.  Denver, really, should take him at 12, because Nix isn't winning you 3 playoff games in the AFC.  At least Penix has that type of upside, which is why I could understand the Raiders doing it at 13.  

...acquired that extra 1st-rounder*