This sucker is mind-blowing. Thorough and excellent.
My two nitpicks:
BUF/Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is a better talent than James Cook, but it still feels redundant. (Similar to your Gibbs/Tony Pollard take, with Cook a poor man's Pollard.)
I've read reports that Buffalo's offseason focus is on becoming less reliant on Josh Allen. I'm guessing that means prioritizing upgrades in the trenches on both sides of the ball and establishing a power running element beyond Allen. The less Allen has to run and is tempted to go deep-ball hunting, the less chance for those back-breaking hero ball turnovers.
I've been consistently mocking Drew Sanders, Jack Campbell, or Trenton Simpson to BUF at 1.27, but I'm done with that. (I fell into the dreaded "reach to fill an obvious need" trap.) I'm now thinking BUF will go D-line. Watching Buffalo's season go down the drain as Cincinnati's depleted O-line embarrassed Buffalo's front four surely haunts Sean McDermott.
Ed Oliver is rumored to be on the trading block. DaQuan Jones is upgradeable. Von Miller is injured and approaching twilight. Basham and Epenesa aren't developing as hoped. I'm guessing the Bills target Mazi Smith or Keion White on Day One, perhaps unless Darnell Wright slips into their range. (RT Spencer Brown is in over his head as a starter.)
Houston won't pass on a QB at #2. I agree that Peter King is overrated as a source. (I'll also add that he's a big ol' goof who has been coasting off his SI journalism career for years while drunk on sanctimony and overpriced, hipster microbrewery swill. But that's just me.) However, other sources have suggested HOU could go defense at 1.2, including (and most importantly) Lance Zierlein.
Zierlein is wired into all things Texans, and when he opines on Houston's draft intentions it almost always carries weight. (He nailed the Derek Stingley and Kenyon Green picks in his final mock last year, FWIW.)
Zierlein suggests that HOU has had Bryce Young alone in QB tier one all along, with Stroud/Richardson/Levis clustered substantially below in tier two. I don't think that's far-fetched.
Don't get me wrong - you're probably right about HOU going QB at 1.2. But the idea of passing on the non-Bryce Young QBs at 1.2 isn't outlandish, IMO. Let's not forget that the Texans have pick 1.12 and are swimming in '23 and '24 draft capital, so if they have similar grades on Stroud/Richardson/Levis, they may think they can go Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson at 1.2 then swing a trade up from 1.12 for their QB. Rebuild cornerstones for both offense and defense.
A prearranged trade with ARI for 1.3 would actually make some sense. Having used 1.2 to draft ARI's possibly preferred 1.3 no-trade fallback option, Caserio could get on the horn with Ossenfort (familiarity from their days in New England) and talk business.
I completely understand both points. Ed Oliver has been a disappointment and i think i mocked them a DT in a few mock interstions lack year, can't remember precisely, but it makes sense as hes entering contract crunch time. Gibbs feels like an awesome fit but that logic is probably right.
Texans, well it would be a huge shock but I think Zierlein is a good guy so im less dismissive now its not just coming from King. I'd really feel for Texans fans if this is true.
They'll come to their own conclusions, and I'm a nobody behind a keyboard, but Young and Stroud seem like really quality potential franchise QB options, and you can never guarantee you be "bad enough" to be able to target a top-QB next year. They aren't trading up the farm for a QB like my Niners did in '21 (that hasnt oanned put well, but the ramifications could have been worse) so it wouldn't set their franchise back 5 years if they do make the wrong call (e.g. the Jets and Zach Wilson isnt devastating for their future IMO - they just got it wrong).
I am still 80% confident they are taking a QB. Hopefilly Charlie digs a bit and finds something.
Yeah, Charlie's the man. As the '22 draft was unfolding, I sincerely thought for a moment that he was going to nail every pick in the top 15. Walt is lucky to have him on board.
Another angle on the Young/Stroud intrigue: Since the secret is out that HOU covets Young, perhaps the sudden CAR/Young rumors are a smokescreen to lure HOU to 1.1 and net Stroud (who the Panthers preferred all along) at 1.2 along with more draft capital. (I find it very odd that Shefter and others were reporting that CAR was "open for business" almost immediately after they traded up to 1.1. There has to be some meat on that bone.)
Obviously, trading up to 1.1 would be a "bad look" for the Texans, but if they truly believe Young is the only franchise QB in this crop, they should go get him. Nobody will remember the embarrassment of trading up if Young becomes a perennial Pro Bowler.
Ultimately, I agree with your 80% certainty. The Texans will most likely just call Carolina's bluff and be content with Young or Stroud.
My biggest pet peeve when reading mocks is when people suggest such-and-such team should just "wait til next year" to draft a QB. Such flawed logic. Like you said, there's no guarantee the team will be in range, or that the teams that are in range will want to trade down. There's also no guarantee that the future QBs presumed to be superior to what's available now will actually live up to the hype. (See: "Dude, we should just wait until next year and draft Spencer Rattler!")
One more thing to consider: I'm not sure if you're aware, but vague rumors of Stroud being "uncoachable" and "moody" have suddenly popped up. I live in Columbus and am familiar with some of the coaches and players, and I have never heard a single mention of character red flags with Stroud. Just the opposite. (If you're unfamiliar with Stroud's back story, give it a read. Stroud is all perseverance and self-motivation.) Stroud is quiet and even-tempered, which can be twisted into "moody" for nefarious purposes. The rumors reek of fake news leaked by the Panthers to reinforce the idea that they are focusing on Young at 1.1.
I largely agree. It really depends on the team. For example, am fine with teams waiting until the next year if the team is 2-3 years from being ready to compete and possesses a abysmal O-line. For example, I think it would be a horrendous mistake for Tennessee to trade up to No. 3 for a QB this year unless Young/Stroud slips past the top-2. Their roster is dreadful, and anyone they send out would be like a lamb to the slaughter (Levis/Richardson at No. 11 may be a different scenario, because they haven't squandered future capital to protect and equip said QB). Richardson and Levis both have serious flaws.
Mostly, I'm in the same camp that waiting for X QB in the next draft is very flawed logic. You don't know if you'll be bad enough, whether they'll regress, whether they'll have off-field or medical stuff, whether you can trade, all that. For example, if the Titans land the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, and Houston is in the 3-7 range, you really think they're going to engineer a trade to go and take the current "consensus" QB1 Caleb Williams? No chance. They'd likely be in the same position as this year - QB2 or someone else.
)
This sucker is mind-blowing. Thorough and excellent.
My two nitpicks:
BUF/Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is a better talent than James Cook, but it still feels redundant. (Similar to your Gibbs/Tony Pollard take, with Cook a poor man's Pollard.)
I've read reports that Buffalo's offseason focus is on becoming less reliant on Josh Allen. I'm guessing that means prioritizing upgrades in the trenches on both sides of the ball and establishing a power running element beyond Allen. The less Allen has to run and is tempted to go deep-ball hunting, the less chance for those back-breaking hero ball turnovers.
I've been consistently mocking Drew Sanders, Jack Campbell, or Trenton Simpson to BUF at 1.27, but I'm done with that. (I fell into the dreaded "reach to fill an obvious need" trap.) I'm now thinking BUF will go D-line. Watching Buffalo's season go down the drain as Cincinnati's depleted O-line embarrassed Buffalo's front four surely haunts Sean McDermott.
Ed Oliver is rumored to be on the trading block. DaQuan Jones is upgradeable. Von Miller is injured and approaching twilight. Basham and Epenesa aren't developing as hoped. I'm guessing the Bills target Mazi Smith or Keion White on Day One, perhaps unless Darnell Wright slips into their range. (RT Spencer Brown is in over his head as a starter.)
Houston won't pass on a QB at #2. I agree that Peter King is overrated as a source. (I'll also add that he's a big ol' goof who has been coasting off his SI journalism career for years while drunk on sanctimony and overpriced, hipster microbrewery swill. But that's just me.) However, other sources have suggested HOU could go defense at 1.2, including (and most importantly) Lance Zierlein.
Zierlein is wired into all things Texans, and when he opines on Houston's draft intentions it almost always carries weight. (He nailed the Derek Stingley and Kenyon Green picks in his final mock last year, FWIW.)
Zierlein suggests that HOU has had Bryce Young alone in QB tier one all along, with Stroud/Richardson/Levis clustered substantially below in tier two. I don't think that's far-fetched.
Don't get me wrong - you're probably right about HOU going QB at 1.2. But the idea of passing on the non-Bryce Young QBs at 1.2 isn't outlandish, IMO. Let's not forget that the Texans have pick 1.12 and are swimming in '23 and '24 draft capital, so if they have similar grades on Stroud/Richardson/Levis, they may think they can go Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson at 1.2 then swing a trade up from 1.12 for their QB. Rebuild cornerstones for both offense and defense.
A prearranged trade with ARI for 1.3 would actually make some sense. Having used 1.2 to draft ARI's possibly preferred 1.3 no-trade fallback option, Caserio could get on the horn with Ossenfort (familiarity from their days in New England) and talk business.