Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams?
@Mr. Bitter It would just seem strange to me if both sides weren't motivated to continue this "union", if you will. The Rams were a couple of plays away from beating Philly at their place in a snowstorm in the playoffs. They were the only team that really hung with them. Unless Stafford is just livid with them about wanting to move on from Kupp, but that doesn't make sense because Stafford, you know, wasn't exactly peppering Kupp with targets. They have a good OL, one of the best offensive scheming coaches in the league, and a DL that was ferocious come playoff time and should only continue to get better. It's not a perfect team, but where the hell is Stafford going to go and have a better shot? And ditto the Rams; they can't find someone better than Stafford. I guess stranger things have happened, but it just doesn't seem to add up to me.
You're right - it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. The Rams are a good team and Stafford isn't going to find a better situation.
From what I've read, it's mostly about the Rams wanting to get younger and cheaper on offense (as they did with the defense) while extending their window for contention. They're hesitant to commit to Stafford, who - with his age and injury history - could decline sharply at any time. It's about proactively avoiding getting themselves into a NYJ/Rodgers-type situation. It kinda makes sense from that angle, but like you said - who are the Rams going to find that's better than Stafford?
That's where Darnold comes in. Trading Stafford only makes sense if the Rams plan on signing Darnold, IMO. Darnold is still only 27 and mostly thrived in a McVay-tree system. I have my doubts whether Darnold will ever have another season as good as '24, but playing under McVay would likely give him the best chance. It just seems like the McVay system squeezes every ounce of potential outta QBs.
@Mr. Bitter There definitely seems to be real legs to the possibility of Stafford being dealt away, in looking at the reporting from this week. I still don't understand why he'd want to join the Giants at this late stage of his career, but maybe he's just looking for a strict money grab if he can get, say, another $100MM guaranteed to him, even though he's already earned $364MM in his career according to Spotrac. If the Rams can get a 1st Round pick for him, maybe they are just willing to continue this youth movement. Just feels like it would be against the way that McVay/Snead want to operate, to take a step back, but perhaps they aren't willing to overextend themselves on an aging QB and perhaps another team will give them the 1st that makes them accept a deal.
It's most likely that the Stafford stuff is negotiation tactics and he just resigns with the Rams. But it's fun to speculate just in case it's not. Can't wait for the free agency dominoes to start falling so there's enough clarity to start pumping out some mock drafts.
Giants/Stafford doesn't make sense for either party. Pick 1.03 for Stafford obviously isn't going to happen. Stafford would only make sense for a team that's "a QB away". That's not the Giants and I'm not even sure if that's the Steelers.
I'd love nothing more than for Tyler Warren to end up in Denver, but he isn't making it past Indy at 14. And after Troy Franklin's massively disappointing 2024, where he was outplayed by a 5th rounder from Utah, I don't want any Oregon skill players on the Broncos.
I'm seriously beginning to wonder about Ward and Sanders going in the top-5.
Lance Zierlein just released his prospect grades for Combine participants. I know that his word isn't gospel and that he has tweaked his grading a bit recently, but his grades are usually solidly predictive of a prospect's draft range. He gave Ward 6.39 and Sanders 6.30 - Ward's grade is the same as Bo Nix and Sanders' grade is Desmond Ridder/Malik Willis-level. I get that there's a QB tax on draft day, but top-5 for 6.3ish graded prospects is a serious reach.
Darnold to Tennessee. I don't see him back with Minnesota with McCarthy there. Dranold will want more than a 1-2 year contract. The Vikings pivot to Rodgers on a 2 year deal. He follows in Favre's footsteps... GB, Jets and Vikings while McCarthy has a few years to learn and develop.
Wilson goes to the Jets. He seems to fit with what Glenn and the rah-rah ownership want out of players there. No, he doesn't end up in Las Vegas. Wilson tried to get PC fired and Wilson isn't a Chip Kelly type of QB.
Cousins goes to the Steelers. They want a QB who can move the ball adequately and manage games. Fields won't be back with Pittsburgh either. He's a backup type. Maybe Cleveland? Dallas to backup Prescott?
Cleveland drafts Ward at #2, although Sanders is a better QB. They don't want to risk having Sanders hold out. Cleveland seems to be a QB wasteland anyway. Sanders goes to the Giants at #3. The Raiders wait until the 2nd on Dart. The other QB's after that... not sure they go higher than the 3rd or 4th rounds.
Chip Kelly seems relatively adaptable as far as working with different styles of QB. (He's had success with Michael Vick, Nick Foles and every style in between.) But you're right - Kelly would likely prefer a QB with better mobility and ability to layer the middle of the field than Wilson. Gonna rethink that one. Wilson to the Colts, maybe?
I've heard the stories about Wilson sabotaging Carroll in SEA. I've also heard that they've since mended fences. Truth might be somewhere in the middle. Not sure. All I know for sure is that - so far - Tom Brady's hires seem more "big name" than guys that would be best for an earnest rebuilding job, which is what the Raiders really need. The Raiders are the current betting favorites to sign Darnold, and it makes perfect sense...another splash signing not best for the long term.
Christ, I pray you're wrong about NYJ/Wilson. I don't see it. The Jets have an all-time bridge QB in Tyrod Taylor that the locker room loves.
@Mr. Bitter I thought about Wilson to the Colts too. I really think Ballard is on the hot seat there and as a result, they need to do better than AR. Not only is he not a functional NFL QB with the woeful inaccuracy, but when he tapped out on a drive last year, I believe it permanently damaged his standing in the locker room with most of the vets. In short, they have to do something there. I projected Fields there, but Wilson also makes sense. Sure, he has his warts, but he hasn't been awful in the past 2 seasons. Thoroughly mediocre, I would argue. But that might be good enough to get the Colts to the playoffs in what is a bad AFC South.
I forget which week it was (late season), but I watched an IND game shortly after Richardson said something along the lines of "I can barely walk". Richardson was sidelined, but the cameras caught him in street clothes before the game, pumping up his teammates and such. I swear he was running full gallop, doing that jumping back bump thing with teammates, etc. I'm no doctor, but I thought it was odd. Not exactly a gamer, I suspect. Colts management already seems pretty frustrated with him.
@Mr. Bitter That's part of why Wilson's likely not a good fit in Vegas, Kelly wants a more mobile QB and the Raiders are rebuilding. I see Sanders and Ward off the board by the 6th pick, so if Dart's there in the 2nd, I'm guessing he's their pick with Jeanty in the 1st. Dart has a good arm and he's mobile so it's logical. And I don't like the Raiders.
I thought about Cousins and maybe it's not Pittsburgh, but Indy. He's an upgrade over Flacco and he has a few good years left. On the radio today a former NFL player said Rodgers will definitely start next year in a QB needy league. I was surprised he said Pittsburgh, but again, a player paid with dead cap money for his salary.
Assuming the chalk Raiders/Darnold marriage happens, Jeanty to LV at 1.06 makes so much sense it hurts. He's exactly what Pete Carroll wants at RB. Jeanty is a freak athlete that will tear up the Combine, so I don't think it would be considered a reach by draft day.
@Mr. Bitter The Raiders have the 2nd most cap space. They could sign Darnold and still have space to add significant help. Sign Darnold, already have Bowers, draft Jeanty. That'd seem like a solid core.
Agree. Jeanty is a better value than McMillan or Burden at #6, IMO. I see so many mocks forcing one of those WRs to the Raiders, saying "the Raiders get their #1 receiver". For me, the Raiders already have their #1 receiver - he just happens to be a TE.
--Sam Darnold to the Steelers. I agree with Mr. Bitter that the team has floundered in the QB mediocrity (or worse) since late career Big Ben. I think Darnold could have been a one-year KOC miracle, one that flamed out in the final 2 games, but Pittsburgh has to take an upside swing on a QB.
--Kirk Cousins to the Browns. The Stefanski connection at play here. And this doesn't necessarily preclude the Browns from picking a QB.
--Russell Wilson to the Titans as a bridge QB, though this still wouldn't necessarily preclude them from taking a QB at the top of the draft.
--Justin Fields to the Colts. Ballard could be feeling the heat, Richardson is awful, and Fields will seem as accurate as prime Steve Young to Colts fans after watching Richardson.
--The Giants come away with Ward in the draft. The Daboll/Schoen regime has still not drafted a potential franchise QB. This draft could give them an opportunity to do so. As a veteran signee to possibly start in Week 1, the G-Men sign Jameis Winston, who at least could get the ball down the field to Malik Nabers.
--The Vikings go with JJ McCarthy as the starter. I believe they really like him and want to see what he can do. They certainly could sign a veteran backup as insurance (Daniel Jones?), but someone with the name and baggage of Aaron Rodgers, yeah, no.
--Speaking of Rodgers, I believe that no one will want him for a starting gig and, thus, I think that he retires.
--The Raiders draft Sanders. While Chip Kelly's presence makes me think that someone like Fields could be a good fit, I think that Tom Brady's influence will take precedence here. My guess is that Brady values accuracy above all else, and Sanders, if he hits, seems like he'd be adept at being a quick processor and decisive, accurate passer.
@The Champ The Steelers don't have the cap space to sign Darnold at about $35 million + and retain Najeh Harris while signing decent free agents. Darnold would take up most of the cap space.
Cousins isn't chasing the money. The Falcons are paying it with their dead cap hit. He's not choosing Cleveland with them being over the cap as of now and with a poor O-line.
In my opinion, Wilson doesn't fit with the direction the Titans want to go in. And the Vikings like McCarthy, but it'd be a few years before he's really ready and the Vikings have a contending team now. JMO. So Rodgers might be the one who fits best considering that, and they have a ton of cap space.
The Steelers absolutely can afford to sign Darnold. You predict TEN will sign Darnold, yet TEN ($44 M) currently has only $3 million more in cap space than PIT ($41 M), and less effective cap space than PIT. PIT will likely cut Larry Ogunjobi, Preston Smith and Cole Holcomb - freeing up another $27 million.
Also: I doubt that keeping Najee Harris around will be a top priority for PIT. He's a committee backfield grinder getting by on 1st round pedigree. PIT could easily find one of those to compliment Warren on the cheap.
100% agree on Aaron Rodgers. In football years, he's old as dirt. His wheels are completely shot. He's a royal pain in the ass. The Jets had talent all over their depth chart, hired Rodgers' preferred OC, and let Rodgers basically hand-pick his receiving targets, yet he still didn't come close to making it work in NY. He's finished.
Not sure about the NYG/Jameis Winston match. I have to think a bridge QB that takes care of the ball will be prioritized after the Daniel Jones experience. Also not sure about Winston mentoring a young QB - especially a QB that needs to rein in his free-wheeling style like Ward.
Hasn't playing QB for the Jets proven impossible for all kinds at this point? Aren't there certain franchises that have something about them that no QB can succeed?
Do you mean "cursed"? C'mon man, I'm trying not to think that way. I know you root for the green team that has its sh*t together like no other, but you don't have to rub it in.
But seriously, I think The Champ is right about Rodgers. I don't see why any team would want him at this point beyond name recognition.
Yeah, the Jets suck at developing QBs, but the Rodgers situation was different. There's no development with a 41-year old future HOFer - everything was set up to his liking so he could hit the ground running. The problem is - while Rodgers will probably be able to spin a pretty ball and dissect a defense in a nanosecond until he's 70 - he can't move at all anymore. He's a sitting duck back there and that isn't going to get better at his age. No mobility=non-starter in the modern game.
I don't think he has value as a bridge QB, either. The ego is too big and the game just always came too easily for him. The best bridge QBs/mentors are always humble, marginally talented vets like Jacoby Brissett for a reason. What advice is Rodgers going to give a young QB? "Hey man, forget about minicamp - what you need to do is hang out in the desert and do stupid hippie sh*t"
I'd like to see Rodgers put together one more good run of play. I think just for the sake of the story lines he might as well go over and play for the Giants for a year. The stories would write themselves not matter how he actually plays.
@Mr. Bitter If Rodgers does continue to play, my best guess is the Titans, actually. There's a connection with their team president, Chad Brinker, who used to be in the Green Bay front office. Rodgers is still better than Will Levis. If the Titans took a QB at #1, they could look to flip Levis for whatever they could get (4th-5th round pick?), and have Rodgers a the bridge QB over Ward or Sanders. And if they pass on a QB, then there's no need to release or trade Levis, unless they could actually get a Day 2 pick for him, in which case they would absolutely be behooved to move him.
The fact that TEN is making it a point to talk up Levis, tell everyone that he'll be working with QB coach Jordan Palmer, etc, seems to me a pretty transparent attempt to muddy the waters and maintain leverage with that 1st pick. I have to think the Titans realize Levis isn't an NFL starter. His turnover/brain fart issues going back to college have only gotten worse in the pros, and he's almost 26 already. He is what he is.
What the Titans do during free agency will be telling. Let's say they aggressively try to sign Darnold...what does that say about Ward/Sanders? That would give credence to the reports that pro scouts don't even see them in a tier with Bo Nix as a prospect, and that media groupthink is the only reason they're anywhere near the top of the 1st round in mock drafts.
@Mr. Bitter Sure, the Steelers can sign Darnold, but that limits what options they otherwise have. Not only is Harris a FA, but Warren is a RFA. They have a few OL's who are free agents. To me, it makes more sense for them to make a play for a WR1. Pickens is a #2 at best. There's no guarantee Burden or Egbuka fall to #21 so maybe they make a play on Higgins or trade for Garrett Wilson.
Tennessee spent the 2nd highest amount in FA last year. Adding Darnold and focusing on the best player at #1 could be their plan. The previous management said they could work with Levis but that's changed. They also mentioned something about drafting a generational talent and that would seem to point to Hunter going #1.
The Titans signing Darnold is an intriguing scenario and not being talked about enough, probably because most assume TEN will just draft a QB 1st overall. That's why I'm eager to see what they do in free agency - pursuing Darnold could indicate pro scouts don't rate Ward/Sanders as highly as the media. We'll see. The Titans have a new GM so their approach to this offseason may not be the same as the last.
I think the "generational prospect" stuff was largely thrown out there by TEN to keep teams guessing as to what they'll do at #1. (Same reason they're talking up Will Levis when they know he sucks.) Teams at #1 do this every draft season. Carter and Hunter are blue chips, but I don't know about generational. They're not quite Micah Parsons and Champ Bailey, IMO.
I just read a report that the Steelers reached out to the Jaguars to inquire about a potential trade for Trevor Lawrence. That's obviously not going to happen, but kinda reaffirms my guess that PIT wants to make a big move at QB, whether it be Darnold, a trade for Derek Carr or an out-of-leftfield trade for Kyler Murray or something. Winning Super Bowls is the standard in PIT, and now they're overshadowed in their own state by the Eagles. A lateral move for Kirk Cousins or something is not going to cut it.
I agree with you on George Pickens. If I'm the Steelers, I'm trading him this offseason. That's not a guy you want to make a long-term investment in, especially for WR1 money. I'd rather get a Day Two pick for Pickens, sign Amari Cooper and draft Egbuka or Golden than wait another season for Pickens to grow up.
I don't think the Jets will trade Garrett Wilson. He's all we currently have in the WR room, and it's rumored that Wilson gave the Jets a "It's him or me" ultimatum regarding Aaron Rodgers. Wilson obviously won that battle. (Not that the Jets probably needed much urging.) We also have only $14 M effective cap space and have to start thinking about new contracts for Sauce, Garrett, AV-T, JJ II, so it's not like we can get in on the Tee Higgins bidding.
@Mr. Bitter It appears the short list for Darnold might be Vegas, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, that is, if Minnesota elects to not offer him a deal and take a comp pick next year. I'd say Indy too but their space may not be enough to match other offers.
The new coach in New Orleans isn't committing to Carr, so maybe a trade to Pittsburgh or Indy could be in play.
If Cousins does hit the market and considering his dead cap salary, do you think your Jets may have interest in him, and should they?
Unfortunately, I think the Jets will have interest in Cousins. There's already talk that they want a veteran, with Cousins at the top of the list and Fields a darkhorse. Cousins makes sense financially and schematically. Looks like another season of good defense/lousy offense, 5 to 8 wins and no playoffs. It just never ends.
Starting to think the Raiders will sign Darnold the second they have the opportunity. They have cap space to burn and neither Brady or Carroll are "rebuild"-type guys. Your TEN/Darnold idea has legs too, depending on how they feel about Ward/Sanders.
A trade for Carr appears to be the most logical move for the Steelers.
Russell Wilson to the Colts.
Still like Fields to the Giants.
Cousins to the Jets or Browns...starting to lean more toward the Jets.
@Mr. Bitter If Rodgers does continue to play, my best guess is the Titans, actually. There's a connection with their team president, Chad Brinker, who used to be in the Green Bay front office. Rodgers is still better than Will Levis. If the Titans took a QB at #1, they could look to flip Levis for whatever they could get (4th-5th round pick?), and have Rodgers a the bridge QB over Ward or Sanders. And if they pass on a QB, then there's no need to release or trade Levis, unless they could actually get a Day 2 pick for him, in which case they would absolutely be behooved to move him.
I can't see Rodgers going to a rebuilding team or accepting anything less than a starting role. He should probably just retire before he has to do his podcasts in a wheelchair.
Mock drafts before free agency are speculative and before the combine and pre-draft workouts, prospect rankings aren't set.
That said, the latest 4 round mock draft is a mix for the Broncos. I agree with Loveland and Hampton in the first 2 rounds. If Warren is off the board, CL's the next TE up. If Hampton's off the.board next up, in my opinion, would be Henderson at RB. No to Kaleb Johnson, his receiving skills are a negative. But what I don't agree with is the 3rd and 4th round picks. Bech is the same type as Vele and Franklin, good size but not the best at separation. If they go WR, it'd be one that can spread the D. Based off of the mock and who's available, and lacking free agency signings, Xavier Watts would make sense in the 3rd. The Broncos need a starting capable free safety more than a backup CB in round 4. Then in the 4th, I'd go with Helm at TE. Yes, double dip.
The Broncos could run 2-TE sets, Warren/Loveland moving around and Helm inline with both very capable pass catchers. Moreover, the opposing D doesn't know if it's pass or run with a serious running back on offense. Payton had Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Schockey so it's not unprecedented. The point is, the Broncos will look to accelerate Nix's growth and give him weapons.
February mock drafts are just pissing in the wind unless they're guided by educated guesses as to how the QB carousel will play out.
PRE-DRAFT:
CLE/Kirk Cousins - Natural system fit and probably the only economically realistic non-rookie QB option for CLE.
NYG/Justin Fields - Schoen and Daboll's seats are white hot. They need an experienced QB capable of providing efficient play and some of the dual-threat elements that are foundational to Daboll's system. Fields makes
sense as a (very) poor man's Josh Allen, and isn't much older than Ward/Sanders.
PIT/Sam Darnold - PIT may just re-sign Fields, but if they had faith in Fields then why didn't they reinsert him into the lineup when Russell Wilson was floundering?
Mike Tomlin is feeling heat. Stability is needed at QB and I think PIT will be aggressive as soon as the free agency market bell rings. Darnold is likely free agency fool's gold, but desperate times/desperate measures.
LV/Russell Wilson - Wilson is by no means the answer at QB for LV, but unless they sign Darnold, his familiarity with Carroll makes him a logical fall-back option to lessen the pressure to reach/trade for Shedeur
Sanders on Draft Day.
Also: The fact that signing Wilson would be a crappy decision is baked into my guess here, as LV is currently in a cycle of making crappy decisions.
DRAFT DAY:
TEN/Cam Ward - Not buying the "we might roll with Will Levis" stuff for a second. Ward is obviously a reach at 1.1, but we've all seen the QB supply-and-demand movie before, and I don't think the "generational
prospect" option that TEN floated exists in this draft.
NYJ/Shedeur Sanders - Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins aren't options for the Jets for obvious reasons, so I'm guessing NY will talk-up Tyrod Taylor pre-draft and target Sanders as QBOTF on draft day, maybe even in a trade
up. New OC Tanner Engstrand had great success with a "point guard" QB in DET. Sanders' skill set fits.
POST-DRAFT POSSIBILITY:
IND/Derek Carr - Judging by Chris Ballard's comments, I think IND might already be done with Anthony Richardson.
It's too early to tell if this will be the offseason Saints GM Mickey Loomis finally commits to a proper rebuild, but I'm guessing it will.
Carr's contract situation ensures he'll remain in NO pre-June 1st, but a post-June 1st trade/release is possible. Carr makes sense as the next in that Rivers/Wentz/Ryan/Flacco line of washed-up short-term solutions in IND, while the
Saints could accept Richardson in a trade for a one-year trial under Kellen Moore - which would likely end up with NO in position to draft Arch Manning in 2026.
Hopefully the Browns can trade down a couple of spots (vegas or Jets) and pick up an additional pick or 2. Not sold on Ward after bowl fiasco. Would rather have D tackle from Michigan and possibly Beck or Ewers in 2nd round.
Beck and Ewers seem like future NFL backups. Just feels like Day 2 stuff like Colt McCoy, Eric Zeier, Deshone Kizer, Cody Kessler, etc, all over again. If there's any chance Ward or Sanders can develop into a franchise QB, CLE has to choose one. Otherwise, the organization will just continue spinning it's wheels.
Would you want to deal with the Deion drama for the next several hears? You know it will happen. I might have aggreed on Ward but his ‘quitting’ on his team at halftime leaves a really bad taste.
What is Cleveland's option? Kirk Cousins?? The Browns have to keep swinging until they connect on a QB. Otherwise, they'll just remain in NFL purgatory.
Any drama created by selecting Sanders or Ward would be a walk in the park compared to the drama that was unleashed by the Deshaun Watson acquisition. I mean, this is the Jimmy Haslam Browns we're talking about.
@Mr. Bitter Well now we have the Myles drama, which seems to be getting worse by the day. This organization is a train wreck. Berry says hes not trading Myles. Myles goes to press and is getting angrier by theday. Denzil will walk also if Myles is traded. Maybe more. Unbelievable.
I'm a Jets fan, so I feel your pain. You're talking to a guy who watches Super Bowl III* - a game played well before I was born - at least once a year just to remind myself that "it's possible".
All of CLE's current problems are ripple effect from the decision to go with Watson over Mayfield. Just a catastrophic move. Again, I feel your pain. The Jets put all their eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket while Geno Smith and Sam Darnold go to Pro Bowls.
I hope for your sake that Garrett is just venting frustration - maybe as a loud-and-clear message to CLE management to turn things around ASAP - because Watson's contract makes a proper rebuild nearly impossible. Besides, Berry and Stefanski won't survive a rebuild. I'm guessing Garrett stays and CLE signs Kirk Cousins, but I could be wrong.
* - Super Bowl III was probably rigged and Matt Snell was easily MVP.
You have the Steelers going mostly defense and taking a stretch at QB? I can only assume you expect the Steelers to sign a rental at WR. I get that the D Line needs to improve. I'm fine with them taking a DT in the first round. However, this QB class is trash. They HAVE to get a weapon at WR to play next to Pickens. If they can get any of the 1st Rd predicted WRs I would definitely go WR first, then DT in the 2nd. They have to start building this offense for whomever is the next QB of the future, whether they find out it is Fields or they wait until next year's draft.
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