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How the Miami Dolphins Should Approach the 2020 Draft Published at 4/22/2020
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Team Needs: QB ,OT , IOL ,S , EDGE (The Draft Network)
Picks: 5,18,26,39,56,70,141,153,154,173,185,227,246,251
The Miami Dolphins are an organization that have poorly for as long as I can remember. Since the year I was born (2000), they have yet to win a playoff game. As an avid Dolphins fan and a fan of smart team building in general, I will outline how the Dolphins should approach the 2020 Draft.
Season Recap:
Due to poor drafting and bloated contracts (66 million in dead cap), the team was without talented players and had little financial flexibility to sign them. Smartly, the Dolphins last year were not active players in free agency which caused many to believe they would execute a tanking strategy. This strategy was further committed to when the team trade its two youngest talented players (Minkah Fitzpatrick and Laremy Tunsil) for a boatload of picks. Unfortunately, the Miami Dolphins were one of the most over-performing 5-11 teams in recent memory. Head coach Brian Flores and charismatic gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick rallied the team to improbably win five games. However, these games won were for the most part not quality wins. The Dolphins beat the injury-ravaged Jets, the Bryan Hoyer led Colts, the receiver-less Eagles, the tanking Bengals, and the Patriots for some reason. These wins don't change the fact that the Dolphins entered the 2020 off-season with one of the least talented rosters in the league.
Free Agency:
Free agency proved to be a telling indicator as to what the Dolphins should do during the draft. Before free agency started, I thought there were two potentially effective strategies the Dolphins could pursue. Strategy 1 would be to essentially skip on free agency this year, draft a tackle at 5, and tank again to try to grab all-world prospect Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields next year. Like I said earlier, the Dolphins while being 5-11 had a very fluky season and I thought they could definitely tank next year and be competitive with the Jaguars for the worst team in the league on a talent level. Strategy 2 is to sign players to play to add to the talent-less roster and prepare the team to compete in a year or two with a young quarterback.
Based on what the Dolphins did in free agency this year, it is seems clear to me that they are going for Strategy 2. The Dolphins made many big money signings this offseason. They acquired Byron Jones as the highest paid corner in the league. They also added Kyle Van Noy and Ereck Flowers to expensive contracts along with grabbing youngish players and giving them medium term contracts at above market value.
The Draft:
Pick 5: I have had numerous arguments in the decision over what to do with this pick with my father. His intuition is to go best player available at five which in our case is either Derrick Brown, Isaiah Simmons or a tackle. However, I believe that this reasoning is flawed. If the Dolphins go best available player (ie best non quarterback), I believe they will miss their window to take a highly-graded quarterback. While the Dolphins before this off-season were bad enough to tank for Lawrence or Fields, after the numerous acquisitions they've made coupled with the five picks they have in the first two rounds, I believe they will be scrappy enough to get enough wins to put them too far away from a pick required to be in position for a top quarterback next year. This decision, I believe, would put the Dolphins in a position that they are very accustom to since Dan Marino retired: quarterback hell. Since I was born, the quarterbacks for the Dolphins have been Jay Fielder, AJ Feeley, Gus Frerotte, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick and a whole host of other bums that I can't be bothered to write out. The point is is that when you are in a position to draft a highly-graded quarterback, you do it or else you can end up being on the 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 7-9 seesaw the Dolphins have been on and never be bad enough to grab a top quarterback while never being good enough to make noise in the playoffs. If the Dolphins don't draft a QB here they will likely go back on that seesaw and I could be a lawyer before they win a playoff game again.
The pick: Tua Tagovailoa
As for trading up, the Lions have the Chargers and Dolphins in a prisoner's dilemma so it is hard to judge what to do. If you put a gun to my head, you make the trade up for Tua. However, I have serious doubts the Chargers want to risk it all for a rookie quarterback because their moves suggest they are in win now, which means you would rather a vet like Jameis or Cam if healthy. The Chargers signed Chris Harris Jr., Linval Joseph, as well as Brian Bulaga. These players are all very talented but are aging. I have my doubts that they plan on waiting for a rookie QB when their team is constructed this way.
Pick 18: I would try to trade up here in order to get one of the top tackles. I think its so important to protect the most valuable position on the field especially when it is a young quarterback who has injury concerns like Tua. Ideally I can trade 70 or 56 + 18 to move up a few spots to get a top 4 tackle. If not, I think I would still want to go tackle with Josh Jones unless some stud falls to me at 18. I would be inclined to take K'Lavon Chaisson or Javon Kinlaw if they were to fall to here and I wasn't able to trade up for a top-4 tackle as Miami has a serious need for an EDGE and pressure from the inside.
The pick: Andrew Thomas or Jedrick Wills (trade up)
Pick 26: This pick is very much dependent on what the Dolphins do at 18. If they drafted a tackle already, you go for either Xavier McKinney or AJ Epenesa. Miami has a huge whole at safety and McKinney would be very effective at filling it and giving the Dolphins a formidable DB group. Epenesa is one of my favorite players in the draft to watch as he is very powerful and I think would really excel as a 3-4 DE like Trey Flowers in New England which is how I think is how he would be used in Brian Flores' system. I see a lot of mock drafts projecting D'Andre Swift here and while I certainly wouldn't complain about the pick and think he would be a great fit and would compliment Jordan Howard well, I just see more pressing needs to be filled here and that either him or Jonathan Taylor would be available at 39 or you could take a RB with a late round pick. Josh Jones also would make sense here to
The pick: AJ Epenesa
Pick 39: This is the pick where if D'Andre Swift is available you take him. He projects to be a stud RB who can catch it out of the backfield and would be a tremendous upgrade to a team who's leading rusher averaged 1.9 YPC last year. If the top RBs aren't available, this could be a pick for one of the second tier OTs who have a ton of upside. Isaiah Wilson is massive and could become a solid tackle at the next level and Austin Jackson also has the tools to become a top tackle. Another option the Dolphins could go is drafting an interior lineman here like Cesar Ruiz. However, I think Brian Flores likes newly acquired former Pats center Ted Karras enough to give him a shot at starting center this year.
The pick: D'Andre Swift
Pick 56: In this scenario where I secure a top tackle, I might not have this pick. If I do however, there are a few directions Dolphins could go with it. If they haven't already drafted safety, they could go for Ashtyn Davis or Antoine Winfield. If they havent drafted IOL they could go for Lloyed Cushenberry or Robert Hunt. Or even if they haven't drafted RB yet, JK Dobbins or even Jonathan Taylor could still be available.
The pick: Ashtyn Davis
After this point, it becomes so hard to project picks because they depend entirely on what they draft and who is still available. The last two time the Miami Dolphins drafted this high, they went best player available and drafted Jake Long #1 and Dion Jordan #3. While Dion Jordan sucks, Jake Long didn't earning multiple Pro Bowl appearances before his career was cut short due to injuries. While in a vacuum this is a good pick, the Dolphins took Jake Long two picks before Matt Ryan was picked by the Falcons. It is time they make up for both this mistake and the mistake of passing on Drew Brees because of his injury concerns and draft Tua Tagovailoa. Chances to pick franchise quarterbacks do not come along often, and I hope the Dolphins make good on the chance that they have. I do not want to grow any older and continue not have ever seen my team win a playoff game.
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