Open Rants by Young Harry

AFL trends which may also work for the NFL (let me know if you see anything similar in the NFL)

I have studied trends in the AFL (Australian Football League or USAFL here) for many years. AFL is similar to the NFL in that both are football, both play approx one game per week and both have four quarters.

THE DIFFERENCES: the AFL is less about power and more aerobic. Players typically cover over 7 miles in a game.  The ground is bigger and oval shaped. And a typical total score (both teams combined) would be 180.  The only two scores in the game are 6 (for a goal) and 1 (for a behind – a narrow miss).  The AFL currently has 18 teams and no divisions.  Despite the differences, some trends that work in the AFL may be transferrable.

INJURIES: the team with lots of injuries this year will be more likely to have lots of injuries next year.  When a lowly team gets a star player back after a significant absence, the team often underperforms that week. 

PLAYER / COACH INTERVIEWS POST GAME: When a player or coach specifically mentions the next opponent without being prompted, it means that the next game is big for that team and there is a chance they might outperform expectations.  When a team has a great win and the interviewee (coach or player - immediately after the game) cannot name their next opponent, expect the team to underperform the following week. 

When a middle of the road team (in NFL maybe ranked 9-24) wins after four or more losses in a row, they often start well the week after the win and exceed expectations.  When a team has a courageous win despite suffering injuries on the day, they often underperform the following week.

ATS RELEVANCE TO TEAMS: Remember that teams think about winning and crucial games against key opponents more than the week to week ATS.  So if a team is 1-10 ATS after the bye and each time they win after the bye (eg win by 3 as 5 point favorites), then their bad ATS record won’t be that important to them.  However if they lose matches after the bye as favourites, it will draw attention. 

TRENDS AND LOGIC:  If you are relying on a trend to continue, there needs to be some sort of logical reason for it.  EG the Bills are 13-27 ATS after playing the Dolphins in recent decades. In many of these seasons, the Bills and Dolphins were vying for a wild card chance (at least at the time when these games occur) behind the Patriots.  So, the above trend makes some sense.  If you discover, for example, that the 49ers are 20-5 ATS when it is raining in Toronto, then that is probably a statistical anomaly which cannot be relied upon to continue. 

ATS IS NOT ENOUGH INFO: As well as knowing the ATS record, I also like to know the average. If a team is, say, 1-9 ATS then that sounds significant and a good trend line worth taking into consideration.  But I also want to know the average and the variation.  I’ll give two examples to illustrate. Let’s say a team is 7-point favorite in those ten games that yielded the 1-9 result. If their winning margins are 6,6,5,5,6,5,4,6,5 and their win is by 32 points, then their average is about +1.  Further, because the team’s underperforming ATS is so narrow (missing the spread by mainly 1, 2 or 3), then I won’t feel all that comfortable that the trend will continue.  However, let’s say that that same 7-point favorite team has the following margins (with a – meaning a loss): 6,5,-2,-8,-9,2,3,-3,-5 and 8.  Then the average is about -7 and they actually lost 5 of the ten games as a strong favorite.  So the second scenario is, to me, a much stronger lead than the first – even though they are both 1-9 ATS.

GOOD WEEK, SHOCKER, THEN NEXT WEEK PHENOMENON:  If a team wins and exceeds expectations by 20 in the AFL (= approx a TD in the NFL), then loses the next week and underperforms expectations by 20 in the AFL (= approx a TD in the NFL), then what happens in the following week?  Here’s what I discovered.  Dividing the rankings into top, middle and bottom (in the NFL maybe 1-8 for top, 9-24 for middle and 25-32 for bottom, but it can vary a bit) and the following patterns generally occur:
First third of season (= weeks 1-6 in the NFL): top teams and bottom teams exceed expectations significantly, middle teams underperform expectations
Middle third of season (= weeks 7-12 in the NFL): top teams exceed expectations significantly, middle teams underperform expectations, bottom teams meet expectations
Last third of season (= weeks 13-18 in the NFL): top teams meet expectations, middle and bottom teams greatly underperform expectations.

REVENGE FACTOR: I am not generally bullish on revenge games if the revenge aspect is obvious (EG Superbowl or Playoff teams meeting the next season).  In the AFL, the Grand Final (Superbowl) replay often results in a win for Grand Final winner.  The revenge games work better when the revenger catches the opponent by surprise. Let’s say you are a young insurance salesman who goes away for a team bonding weekend with other young insurance salesmen. Day 2 will include boxing. On night 1, one salesman gloats about ripping off some old woman in selling her insurance.  As you hear the story, you realize that the woman is your grandmother.  Question: next day you are scheduled for 3 x 3 round matches and one of your opponents is the guy who ripped off your grandmother. In which of your 3 matches will your intensity be the greatest?  That, in a nutshell, best describes the surprise revenge match.

Would like to see stats on teams playing staying east (or west) for back-to-back away games and how they perform ATS.