Open Rants by gabeljm

Ok, so the 12-3 Raiders aren't exactly in need of "fixing". They do, however, need some re-tooling to be a consistent competitor playing in arguably football's toughest division. As it sits, Oakland will have $45.7 million in cap space to play with during the 2017 off-season.

Existing Roster Decisions

On offense, Oakland should look to bring back unrestricted free agent OT Menelik Watson. The talented but off-injured Watson has all the tools of a starting-caliber NFL Left Tackle, but is fully capable on the right side until Donald Penn regresses. He's a great candidate for a 1 year prove-it deal, somewhere in the $2 million with incentives range. Cutting OT Austin Howard would save GM Reggie McKenzie & Co. $3.6 million, bumping the cap space to about $47.3 million. Fortunately, the Raiders have gotten experience for young backups Denver Kirkland and Vadal Alexande at both guard and at tackle. Andre Holmes will likely get a bigger offer elsewhere, but is a key special teamer and occasional big catch guy. Hey internet guy, what about RB Latavius Murray? I full expect "Tay Train" to get overpaid by a team hungry for a running game (see Chris Ivory, 2016). Murray has quality tools, especially in short yardage situations, but he still has issues with vision and feel that make me uneasy about a $5 million/year deal. Plus, the coaching staff like what they see out of rookies Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. Look for the ERFA tag (one year, ~$600k) to be exercised on sneaky good WR Seth Roberts. This is also the off-season to negotiate a six-figure contract extension with QB Derek Carr. Cap Remaining: $46.7 million.

On defense, the Raiders have a few remaining plug-gap veterans who need the plug pulled on them. This starts with Pro Bowler S Reggie Nelson. Despite his notoriety and veteran presence, Nelson has lost more than a step this year and has no business being anywhere near the single-high safety (because sometimes, even when it's his assignment he's nowhere near it). Cutting him would save $2.75 million and allow for a younger safety with potential to get time across from 2016 first round pick S Karl Joseph. LB Malcolm Smith plays with hustle but gets washed out against the run and isn't good around the ball in coverage despite being around the ball often. Did I mention CB D.J. Hayden yet? Here's another probable one year prove-it deal (~$3 million, part incentives) to see if the adequate slot corner can ever learn how to look for a ball in the air. MLB Perry Riley has been a stabilizing force in the middle, and deserves a 2 to 3 year deal worth $3 million per (front loaded, of course). McKenzie will rush to the fax email machine to slap a 2nd round RFA tender (~$2.75 million) on underrated DT Denico Autry. If it is discovered that OLB/DE Aldon Smith still hasn't gotten his act together, Oakland can save $5.75 million with no dead cap. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Cap Remaining: $40.7 million.

Key special teamers LS Jon Condo, S Brynden Trawick and LB Darren Bates should command about $3.5 million amongst them. Cap Remaining: $37.2 million.

Free Agency & The Draft

After mostly hitting on last year's free agency period and striking gold in recent draft classes, the Raiders should be less active in this year's spending period. For the first time under Reggie McKenzie, both sides of the ball should see some much-needed continuity in the starting lineup. That doesn't mean Oakland won't be active in acquiring depth and competition, especially with flexible, front-loaded deals before Carr, Mack, and Cooper start to hit the cap bigly. Secondary help, OLB (coverage) and DT talent are needed to improve a defense that has struggled at covering tight ends and getting consistent interior pressure. S Tony Jefferson would be a great in-the-box presence across from the rangy Joseph. He'll be our one splurge at 5 years, $31.3 million, with $8.3 million counting in the first year. One year deals for Stacy McGee and Malcolm Smith could be had for $3.5 million. Cap Remaining: $25.4 million.

Oakland picked three defensive players in a row to start the 2016 NFL Draft, and that should be repeated in 2017. A divisional round loss thanks to the devastating injury to QB Derek Carr would net Oakland the 23rd or 24th pick. CB Sidney Jones, LB Jarrad Davis, and wildcard WR John Ross are difference-makers I like in this range. Rounds 2-4 should focus on getting stouter and more explosive in the interior of the defense. At a total cap hit of about $6 million, the 2017 class needs to be a single or double to keep the franchise on its upward trajectory. Cap Remaining: $19.4 million.

Outlook

The silver and black lining to Derek Carr's injury (I have to think this way to keep the tears in control) is that this young core is going to get critical playoff experience without its leader. This allows for Oakland to evaluate soon-to-be free agents OG Gabe Jackson & DT Justin Ellis, and current high-priced acquisitions CBs Sean Smith and David Amerson in high-pressure situations. If Derek Carr recovers fully from a broken fibula and these tweaks to the roster are made, the Raiders should see a return to the playoffs and could enter a period of sustained success.

To the Raiders fans concerned about our cap in the next few years, I say R-E-L-A-X. McKenzie structured his free agent contracts to be very easy to step away from if needed, and his talent scouting group has proven it can find talent early (Carr, Mack, Cooper), late (Murray, Roberts, Richard/Washington) and off the scrap heap (Amerson, Riley, Crabtree). Good teams find a way to pay the quarterback plus five or so core players. Now is the time for McKenzie to prove his worth as a GM.