Open Rants by strafro

Hello everyone,

As a little background on myself, I am a lifelong fan of college basketball and have a highly analytical mind. The last two seasons I have come up with methods for ranking teams (won my personal NCAA bracket challenge last year using this method) and making picks. I won't go into too many details on the methods behind it but I'll share my top 50 and some comments.

1. West Virginia Mountaineers- The Mountaineers simply put bury teams early and don't give them an inch on the offensive end. Their only loss is to a solid Temple team and they've won at Virginia this season. Simply put they are a quality team and make life difficult for their opponents. I already have a national championship future on them at 35/1.

2. Kentucky Wildcats- Another team that I feel is somewhat underrated because of media infatuation with record. Kentucky has 2 losses by a combined 8 points to top 12 teams. They have other quality wins and are a team that typically peaks as the season goes on because of their youth.

3. Villanova Wildcats- Villanova is the defending national champion and undefeated this season, they have several mid-tier quality wins (Purdue, Wake, Temple, ND, Creighton) but they don't put teams away like WV and UK do. They will rack up wins, but I don't like them as much as those 2 at the moment.

4. Virginia Cavaliers- Virginia is a style of team that I value highly, they are smart, do the little things, value their possession and focus on efficiency. They have two home losses, which sting but one is to my #1 team and the other was a 2 point loss to an underrated FSU squad. They have a very impressive win at Louisville as well.

5. Baylor Bears- Another team that is slightly overrated due to being undefeated but a quality squad nonetheless. Baylor has moved up my rankings pretty much every week as they continue to pick up quality wins. They have several impressive home wins on their resume but their biggest test will be next week when they go on the road to West Virginia.

6. Kansas Jayhawks- The Big 12 is loaded at the top this year with three quality teams that all have a legitimate chance of taking first place in the conference. Kansas has only one loss in the season opener, but they have lacked many quality opponents since their first 2 games of the year, we'll see if the lack of non conference SOS knocks them off the Big 12 pedestal.

7. Louisville Cardinals- The Cardinals had controversy surrounding the team but it hasn't effected their play on the court. Strong defense and quality wins over Purdue, Kentucky and Indiana outweigh losses to Baylor and Virginia. They'll be competitive in a strong ACC.

8. Duke Blue Devils- Coach K's leave of absence is a huge story to track over the next couple weeks. However, I feel that Duke is a strong program that won't skip a beat despite missing the best coach of all time. Their play on the court hasn't been as dominant as the past couple years and that influences their rank more than missing Coach K.

9. Gonzaga Bulldogs- Another undefeated team that's slightly overrated because of it, they actually have an OK shot of running the table in the WCC this year but I'll predict they lose one game to St. Mary's an slip up somewhere else. They have some quality wins over Florida and Arizona but that lacking figure will limit them to a 2-seed in March.

10. Florida Gators- I love the Gators this season. The have 3 losses but all are against quality opponents, they've played one of the toughest schedules in the country so far and continue to perform at a high level. They have the best shot of any SEC team to take down Kentucky.

11. North Carolina Tar Heels- Bad loss to Georgia Tech has slightly devalued this team, I disagree.

12. UCLA Bruins- A team that gets by on name value, they're riding a huge win over Kentucky and will continue to be overvalued.

13. Purdue Boilermakers- Currently slightly ahead of the others as best in the B1G, it'll be fluid all season though.

14. Wisconsin Badgers- Another team that people don't pay attention to because they slow it down and play boring basketball.

15. Cincinnati Bearcats- This is a quality team that can score in bunches and simply bury an opponent and run away.

16. Florida St. Seminoles- This is a team I think can make some noise in a crowded ACC this year, they keep racking up quality wins and I see more coming.

17. Arizona Wildcats- Arizona is a team that can run a little too hot/cold for my liking. Their thrashing of Stanford opened my eyes some.

18. Butler Bulldogs- This team is so consistent year over year at staying relevant, I just don't think they'll ever be what they were with Brad Stevens ever again.

19. Xavier Musketeers- No bad losses but no quality wins that jump out, Xavier is a solid squad that won't be involved in too many surprise results.

20. Creighton Bluejays- These Big East squads will sort themselves out behind Villanova as the season goes on.

21. Clemson Tigers- I thought this team was underrated last season, they played everyone tough but couldn't win close, they've improved in that regard this year though.

22. Oregon Ducks- The Pac 12 isn't as strong as some people think. Oregon is playing well but is not the team they were last year. Win over UCLA not as impressive as some believe.

23. Wichita St. Shockers- A perenially underrated team out of the MVC, they never get the respect they deserve and seem to outperform expectations every season.

24. Indiana Hoosiers- Another up/down team, they can beat anyone in the country (Kansas, UNC) or lose to anyone in the country (IPFW, Nebraska) on any given night.

25. Saint Mary's Gaels- Another quality mid-major but one that gets too much respect this time. Making up for their snub from the NCAA tournament last season.

26-30: Notre Dame, Iowa St., SMU, Texas Tech, TCU

31-40: Michigan, Miami FL, Minnesota, Oklahoma St., Houston, Virginia Tech, Marquette, South Carolina, Northwestern, Dayton

41-50: Kansas St., Arkansas, Wake Forest, Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Georgia, Illinois St., Michigan St., UNC-Wilmington, California

I'll try to update these weekly and post some daily picks when possible, here are two games I like tonight (took Canisius -2 earlier but didn't post this yet):

UT-Arlington -14.5 vs. Appalachian St. - Arlington is a quality team that I have ranked 60th, I have this game off by 4.5 points and will jump all over that value.

Arkansas St. -10 vs. UL-Monroe: Arkansas St is not a household name by any means but they are a top 100 team that isn't valued as such, they should be able to easily take care of UL-Monroe.