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The AFC: Where Parity Doesn't Exist
Published at 1/11/2017
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It appears to be a foregone conclusion that this year's AFC Championship Game will be the Steelers and the Patriots. If so, this would be the third time in the new millennium that they have met in the AFC title game.

This is just one of the few annoyances that come with the conference with possibly the worst parity in all of professional sports, rivaling even the NBA. Since the turn of the millennium, only SIX teams have won the AFC, with five of those six teams winning it at least twice. Those teams? The Ravens (2000, 2012), the Broncos (2013, 2015), the Colts (2006 and 2009), the Steelers (2005, 2008 and 2010) and the Patriots (2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011 and 2014). The only team that has won the AFC that was not one of those five teams? The Raiders, of all teams. In fact, with the exception of the 2002 AFC Championship Game between the Titans and the Raiders, every single AFC Championship Game has featured at least ONE of the five mentioned teams and an astounding ELEVEN of these games have featured at least TWO of these teams.

Compare this to the NFC, during the same timeframe, where eleven different teams have won the conference and as of Wild Card weekend, there has not been a repeat title game. Taking it a step further, comparing the AFC to other conferences across professional sports... (dating back to 2000)

NBA Western Conference, only 5 champions: The Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks, Thunder and Warriors.

NBA Eastern Conference, seven champions.

NHL Western Conference: Nine teams, and this despite the recent back and forth exchange of the Campbell trophy between the Kings and the Blackhawks.

NHL Eastern Conference: Eight champions

MLB American League: Nine champions

MLB National League: Nine champions, despite the recent even-year trend of the San Francisco Giants and the consistency of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Of course, the question becomes how and why is the parity in the AFC so bad? Why is it the same teams in the championship game year after year? How can this trend change? It boils down to one thing: consistency and it's not just consistency in winning football games, but consistency off the field in how one manages their teams. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at how many coaching changes since the 2000-2001 season each of these five teams has had

Baltimore: One, when they fired Brian Billick and replaced him with John Harbuagh.

Pittsburgh: One, when Bill Cowher retired and was replaced by Mike Tomlin. 

New England: None. 

Indianapolis: Three. Tony Dungy replaced the fired Jim Mora, Jim Caldwell replaced Dungy, Chuck Pagano replaced Caldwell.

Denver: Four. Probably the exception to the rule with the post-Shanahan era being a bit turnover happy and one of the coaching changes was a voluntary one with the resignation of Gary Kubiak.

Seeing a pattern? Let's compare this with the rest of the teams in the AFC (not including interim coaches unless they subsequently became the permanent coach)

Kansas City: 5 coaching changes

San Diego: 4 (including the upcoming one to replace Mike McCoy)

Oakland: 8

Buffalo: 6

New York Jets: 4 (note: all 4 have .500 or worse records)

Miami: 5

Cincinnati: 2 (exception to the rule, though it can be argued that Marvin Lewis has had too long of a leash)

Cleveland: 7 (Sad fact: The last Cleveland coach to get more than 2 years is Romeo Crennel)

Houston: 2 (exception to the rule with the franchise starting play in 2002, and does not include the initial hiring of Dom Capers)

Jacksonville: 4 (all with .500 or worse record)

Tennessee: 3 (exception to the rule due to Jeff Fisher)

As you can see, with most of the 11 franchises mentioned, there have been at least FOUR coaching changes since the 2000 season, indicating a lack of continuity. Only two franchises of the bunch, the Bengals and the Titans, have had any true continuity this century though in their cases, Jeff Fisher had far too long of a leash in Tennessee and Marvin Lewis has proven he's not the guy to get Cincinnati over the hump. Both franchises are or were being too conservative. Most of them are not giving their coaches enough time. or are just hiring the wrong people (in the cases of teams like the Jets and the Chargers). Three of the five 'blue blood' teams in the AFC, the perennial contenders, have had one or no coaching changes and even the two that don't apply (the Colts and the Broncos) had at least one retirement or resignation.

Continuity is everything in the NFL. The reason that the AFC lacks parity is because the same five teams winning or contending for the AFC every year are the ones that appear to understand that fact.

 



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