Open Rants by Young Harry

Improving and analyzing the NFL

I am an amateur AFL Football analyst (Australian Rules Football – not soccer, not rugby) and have become quite taken by NFL football in recent years. As a compulsive analyst, I have some suggestions to improve the game.

It took a while to realise that everything is in reverse in the NFL.  The home team is listed second (team A at Team B) and, when a team attacks, they go into the territory of the other team. That’ll never change, I guess, but it’s a pity.

DOWNS

The downs information needs drastic improvement. Something like 2nd down and 8 tells us something but not enough.  To keep it simple, it should say, for example 2nd down and 8/23 = 23 yards to go for a touchdown. Isn’t that what we all want? 

SCORES

Next, it is verging on criminal to jump the gun on giving a score.  You are watching your team fight for a Wild Card and see that your main competitor just get scored against.  You see the score go from 20-19 to 20-25 in the last minute.  You are cheering happily – only to see the score reversed.  Best solution is to use a color code (or underline or something – anything) for an interim score before it is official (or 19+6TBC).  If that cannot be done, then do nothing until the score is official.

ANALYSTS

A word on analysts and how well they perform. Let us assume (many don’t) that all officials are on the level and totally competent.  They will have several “line ball” calls to make each game (and the occasional horror mistake).  Each instance could lead to, or prevent, a touchdown = approx 25% of a team’s average total score.  One bad call can make all the difference – much more so than in basketball, as an example. Then there are injuries that occur in game; plus last minute surprises on team selection.  It’s a tough job.

However, if an analyst can get it right 55% of the time in a “double your money” type pick for, say, 8 games a round, he can make you 68% profit on your investment in one season (investing 5% of the original “bank” each game). It’s easy to take pot shots when someone’s predictions fail, but remember the variables listed above.

CHANGING THE RULES

I’m happy for QBs to kneel at the end of Q2, but I hate it at game’s end.  New rule – after the 2 minute warning Q4, the leading team has to gain 1 yard (decided by officials without video replay) to move the clock; if not, the clock gets reset.  That way, teams wouldn’t be able to kneel away the final minute or so; would make for better finishes and not much extra time taken. Next rule – on kick-off at start or after a score, have a bigger penalty for landing the ball first bounce in the end zone or beyond; maybe the receiving team starts at 35 or 40; it would bring back a bit more of a skill factor into that kick.  I am not “picking on the NFL”; I have plenty of suggested improvements for the AFL also – and the AFL could learn some things from the NFL (especially training and injury reports).

HOW TO ANALYZE NFL

If I had the time and knowledge, I’d keep a spreadsheet of every player, their ranking (0 for development players to 4 – maybe a higher number? - for stars) and keep notes on when they play, are injured or are playing not at 100%.  This is my main reason for reading Walter’s picks and recaps.

In the AFL, I assign an injury quotient to each team – noting when players were “healthy” but not ready to play or playing injured. In the NFL, player injuries by position are much more important – due to the difficulty of players switching roles.

Two key points to remember – firstly, believe what you see (don’t just ignore a totally unexpected result); next, don’t believe what you see. Review games, read between the lines when coaches / players talk (eg” our next 3 weeks will define our season” shows how they are focused); learn to pick a “false lead” result. Review hard; admit errors and find out why the result went as they did.

TRENDS

A trend needs a reason why it works to be worth considering. Occasionally, negative trends disappear as teams become aware of them and make adjustments accordingly. Some trends are statistical anomalies only – like KC winning the toss the first 9 weeks in 2018.

Some trends miss the point. A study decades ago found that kids who sucked their thumbs were less susceptible to tooth decay. That was irrelevant. It transpired that these kids were also less likely to eat candy!

I haven’t done all the homework, but here are trends which work well in the AFL and I think are worth considering:

A. Teams that pull off heroic wins despite incurring injuries on match day often underperform the following week

B. Half decent teams (but not totally useless) who lose 4 or more in a row and then win – they will often follow up the win with another win and/or beat the spread; they will often start well.  This works because the succession of losses casts a gloom over the underperforming team. A win (even a narrow win over a horrible team) lifts that gloom and they play the next week with more freedom.

C. Never get too excited about a very poor team winning – even if they are hosting an even worse team

D. Playoffs: teams with recent play-off experience should do well against those without such experience – especially in divisional play-off games.

Young Harry, Melbourne, Australia