First off, I greatly appreciate the considerable work that you put into this. It's really something, and you obviously know what you're doing. I have three thoughts where I guess I'd disagree with you a little bit, and I hope you don't take this as anything but constructive discussion. First, regarding Denver and their possible plan of attack, I think they are more likely than Minnesota and Las Vegas to come away with a rookie QB. Because Russell Wilson is going to take up a huge dead cap hit, they can't really spend much at the position. And while I agree that not only could Winston come relatively cheaply but that he could serve as a bridge starter in 2024, I still think that a rookie QB is very much in play for Payton. He's in the AFC. He has to realistically know that you have to have a potential upside franchise QB to be able to win 3 playoff games just to get out of the AFC. Winston just isn't doing that. I think Payton knows he has to take a shot on a rookie QB. And if they can't land one of the top 4 QB's somehow, I could see them trying to come away with Penix or Nix.
Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.
And third, I think you're too low on Jackson Powers-Johnson and Penix. JPJ is probably considered the top center and maybe the top iOL after the Senior Bowl, where he dominated. A lot of teams have center/iOL in the 1st and it's difficult to imagine him sliding out of the 1st, at least to me. And as for Penix, I get that he'll turn 24 soon and that there are medical concerns, but this isn't like Latu where he once medically retired, where that was concerning his neck. I'm not saying that I think Penix goes in the 1st Round (though I believe it's possible that a team trades back up into the 1st for Penix or Nix), but it's hard for me to imagine some team not nabbing him in the 2nd. Too many teams need QB's and there will be some still holding their hand out after the musical chairs of free agency and the 1st Round have stopped.
Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.
I appreciate it, and don't mind the criticism at all. I follow your mocks and respect your opinion. I'm open to different perspectives and have been wrong a thousand times. Besides - If we all agreed on everything it would be boring as hell. Disagreement is what makes this fun.
It's obvious to most of us that DEN won't be making any serious noise in the AFC any time real soon, buy I truly question whether Payton thinks that way. The man has an ego on him. He annually overestimates his rosters and stubbornly sticks with his guys and his rigid philosophies instead of embracing young upgrades and fresh ideas. His post-Drew Brees Saints teams were basically just spinning their wheels, all while being financially irresponsible. It's looking like more of the same in DEN. Honestly, I just haven't been impressed with his coaching performance and decision-making post-Brees.
When doing a predictive mock, I try to think like the decision-makers for each team. That's why I have the Rams taking older prospects Latu and Nix, just as they did last year with Byron Young, Nacua, Turner, etc. - they know their SB window is closing fast and want older, immediate contributors. Personally, I wouldn't take Latu, but I'm pretty sure the Rams would. That's why I have Payton skipping on the rookie QBs for Winston - I honestly believe he thinks he can compete with Winston and his guys, because that's all Payton has ever showed me.
You might be right on the WR O/U, and believe me - not giving the Chiefs Troy Franklin killed me. But my thought process was that with the OT, DL and CB crops being so top-heavy, teams will be willing to put WR on hold until Day Two, where there will be a dozen high-quality WR options of varying styles to choose from. Take my JAX/Arnold pick. I instinctively wanted to slot Brian Thomas Jr. there and call it a day. Then I thought, "Wait - the Jags don't have a nickel corner, Darious Williams is almost 31, and Tyson Campbell is a FA after the season. Terrion Arnold is just sitting here at excellent value. I like Brian Thomas Jr., but he's not light years better than comparable Day Two guys like AD Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Brenden Rice, etc. JAX won't find a CB even close to Arnold on Day Two".
As for JPJ and Penix Jr., we just disagree on their value. I actually wasn't overly impressed with JPJ's Senior Bowl reps. They were highlighting instances where he was being pushed into the QBs lap then raving about his last second grapple/recovery. It's like, okay - that was feisty and all, but he was still getting pushed back. I just didn't see the dominator everyone was talking about.
I like Penix. Great arm. His age and medicals aren't even big concerns for me. He's just plain inaccurate under pressure. It's hard for me to get past that.
You're more than right about the QB supply-and-demand. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Penix went in the 1st round. For now I have him as a late 2nd/early 3rd prospect, but I'm open to moving him up depending on what we hear coming out of the Combine.
@Mr. Bitter I do have the Rams taking Latu, ha. Also, Dallas Turner went 4.42 today and Chop went 4.48. Turner also has a long-ass wingspan. Due to his athleticism and Alabama pedigree, I'm guessing he comes off first among the Edge guys. I know you think Chop will be a high pick and he probably helped himself today. Could be the EDGE2 imo, if teams fall in love with the physical package enough. I had him going 30th in my first mock but I think I will move him up when I do my next one.
Yeah, Dallas Turner rocked the Combine. He's a little shorter than I thought but that doesn't really matter with that wingspan. Chop isn't as long as I assumed, but all-time freaky EDGE numbers overall. I'm thinking about swapping Chop and Turner in my mock, but I probably won't once I rewatch Chop's insane first step lol. Turner, Chop and Verse are all gonna come off the board in the top 16. No doubt.
Latu is longer than I expected. Still, those speed/explosion numbers...
I get that Latu wins with technique, but man...after watching tape from Chop, Turner and Verse, Latu looks lumbering in comparison.
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First off, I greatly appreciate the considerable work that you put into this. It's really something, and you obviously know what you're doing. I have three thoughts where I guess I'd disagree with you a little bit, and I hope you don't take this as anything but constructive discussion. First, regarding Denver and their possible plan of attack, I think they are more likely than Minnesota and Las Vegas to come away with a rookie QB. Because Russell Wilson is going to take up a huge dead cap hit, they can't really spend much at the position. And while I agree that not only could Winston come relatively cheaply but that he could serve as a bridge starter in 2024, I still think that a rookie QB is very much in play for Payton. He's in the AFC. He has to realistically know that you have to have a potential upside franchise QB to be able to win 3 playoff games just to get out of the AFC. Winston just isn't doing that. I think Payton knows he has to take a shot on a rookie QB. And if they can't land one of the top 4 QB's somehow, I could see them trying to come away with Penix or Nix.
Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.
And third, I think you're too low on Jackson Powers-Johnson and Penix. JPJ is probably considered the top center and maybe the top iOL after the Senior Bowl, where he dominated. A lot of teams have center/iOL in the 1st and it's difficult to imagine him sliding out of the 1st, at least to me. And as for Penix, I get that he'll turn 24 soon and that there are medical concerns, but this isn't like Latu where he once medically retired, where that was concerning his neck. I'm not saying that I think Penix goes in the 1st Round (though I believe it's possible that a team trades back up into the 1st for Penix or Nix), but it's hard for me to imagine some team not nabbing him in the 2nd. Too many teams need QB's and there will be some still holding their hand out after the musical chairs of free agency and the 1st Round have stopped.
Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.