Site Comments
7 Comments (last 3 days):
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@Baird & Mr. Bitter : It's been a struggle for me to find a matchup I like [ power underdog ] the last few weeks and this week is no exception. My number #1 play this week sounds like your write up: I like the KC/Houston game Under 42. No need for any more explanation - you covered the reasons for the under quite well. I'm also going with the Jets-Rams game OVER 46. After watching A. Rodgers the last 2 weeks it looks like they are committed to the quick passing game to keep ARod upright and he has 2 great receivers in G. Wilson & D. Adams. Just like the Rams have 2 great receivers Kupp & Nakua. Both teams have solid RB's - B. Hall vs. K.Williams. Neither team's defense stands out. I like to play 3 teams [ 2 team RR parlays ] and on my 3rd pick I took a flyer on SF - Miami Over 45. Being a Bears fan I refuse to bet the Bears but I wouldn't be shocked if they give the Lions trouble. The Lions injuries are really adding up and I think the loss of D. Montgomery is Huge for the Lions. First game at home for the Bears after Sh-tcanning Eberflus, if they are going to put forth some effort it will come this week. Of course, they could sleepwalk through another non-effort also.
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HOU @ KC - dont like it, too many variables. I'd feel like a fool trying to cap this game.
Looks like Thuney moved to LT & Caliendo is at guard so HUNTER & ANDERSON dont destroy Mahomes. Good move KC Edge win rate rankings - 1. Hunter 6. Anderson Jr KC O-line strength? Interior Question: do refs give RT Taylor extra step or call false starts? Prob the biggest deal in this game I'm guessing we see a bunch of Pacheco, misdirection & quick passes = long drawn out drives &/or stalled drives with long field. Hollywood is back, but how much does he really play? Prob just getting ready for postseason. KC is @PIT + @DEN next so they should show up in their FINAL home game. IDK - spags, Jones+Karlaftis & McDuffie should limit HOU's O, but KC isnt exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Chenal's status is big vs Mixon. Spread has been all over the place. I got small on UNDER. PIT vs BAL - Steelers magic is done. PIT continues to trend down even though past stats scream otherwise in this game. I've only teased BAL 0 to -0.5 so far. Side note - PIT's schedule reminds me of CHI (5 div games in 6 weeks) when they battled hard for a big DIV stretch, had an off game and lost big only to come back and fail. Is CHI @ MIN a precursor to this game? |
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@Charles Beagle I get that CHI drafted Odunze to ensure Caleb Williams won't be lacking for quality targets anytime soon, but my God would Chop Robinson or Dallas Turner have looked good opposite Montez Sweat. Pace may have even been able to grab either after trading down with a team desperate to move up ahead of MIN for McCarthy or Nix. Pace kinda blew that one, IMO. |
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The Herbert injury and LA's lack of any real HFA scare me, but this is exactly the type of game recent Chargers editions would lose and Harbaugh was hired to win. The last time DEN played a team with a decent QB was back on Nov. 10 on the road against Mahomes and the Chiefs. DEN lost that game 16-14, and I think we may see a similarly close game tonight. Neither team can run. Courtland Sutton should get his numbers, but he is DEN's only real weapon. Tarheeb Still has stepped up, so the Hart/Molden injuries aren't terrifying. McConkey could have a big game as he avoids boundary-anchored Surtain, and Hayden Hurst might make an impact fresh off the IR. LAC 23 DEN 20 |
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Walter - After reading your analysis and Thursday Thoughts, I've switched my pick from the L.A. Chargers to the Denver Broncos: 1) Justin Herbert's ankle continues to be a concern for me. 2) Chargers will be missing Cam Hart and Elijah Molden. 3) The sharps are on Denver. 4) The Public Money on Denver is 72%. 5) The Chargers have no running game since J.K. Dobbins went out. 6) In the past 3 games, the Chargers offense has only scored 17 points in each game. That's too many red flags to trust the Chargers. Give me Denver and the points. I feel the Broncos will win the Moneyline too. |
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I am a ND guy but Riley Leornard isn't getting taken on Day 2. The funniest thing I've seen on this site in a long time is Leonard has "accuracy." It made my milk come out of my nose. Riley Leonard's future in the NFL is as a Taysom Hill clone. Big enough to be a TE and good enough runner to be a wildcat qb. But I've watched every minute of every ND game this year and Leonard biggest weakness is his lack of accuracy, especially downfield accuracy. I honestly don't know where you folks get your information. |
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Again, you folks really need to do more research! GB is set at LB with Walker, Cooper, McDuffie and Harper. Their first three picks, in no particular order will be (1) CB, 2) OL and 3) DL. I'm not sure what you guys are reading/watching! |
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Wow, you really need to re-do this. The Bears aren't going to take as safety @9. The Bears have two massive needs as follows: 1) OL and 2) OL. Any mock predicting anything else just throwing darts randomly at a dart board. The next biggest need for the Bears would be Rush End.
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Walter when are you going to learn never bet against my team the Broncos your just going to lose! Your hate for Denver is overwhelming they are just going to get better and better Bo is going to be great get over it.
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You're seriously overthinking the Rams/motivation angle. "If the Rams win this game and the next one....provided SEA beats MIN, which is very possible...I don't know if the Rams will know this..." MIN beating SEA is also very possible, and I'm sure the Rams are aware that they'll be alone in first place if that happens and they TCB vs. the Jets. The Jets have done well the past two weeks because Mike McDaniel and Doug Pederson happen to be two of the few HCs that don't have a pronounced advantage over Jeff Ulbrich and company. Sean McVay won't let the Rams walk into an ambush. |
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The Texans can get to the #3 three with three wins and PIT loses to KC and BAL. Of course, that puts them in the BUF bracket which may not be as desirable as KC but they do have a bit to play for this weekend.
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Teams like Green Bay and San Francisco you will make excuses for why they lost, bring up injuries and say things like "if this team didn't do this fluky thing GB or SF would have won" but teams like Minnesota and Denver you never talk about their injuries, make excuses for the teams they just beat and say things like "they only won because they did this fluky thing" or the team they played against only lost because the refs did this or " they might have won by 20 points but they played against a bad team that made mistakes". You remind me of a 12 year old making a power rankings for a class project. Hahaha
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A WIN IS A WIN NEED TO GET OVER YOUR HATE ON DENVER, THEY BEAT TAMPA AT THEIR PLACE, A BLOCKED FIELD GOAL FROM CHIEFS, YOU HAVE 49ERS RANKED AHEAD OF THEM LOL WHAT A JOKE RANKING. WASHINGTON BARELY SURVIES NEW ORLEANS AND YOU HAVE THEM TOP TEN
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Week 15 notes:
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Tyler Warren in the 3rd RD is nuts. Probable top-25 pick, high-2nd RD floor. Where is Josh Simmons? Easy to forget because of the injury, but might be the only pure OT prospect worthy of top-15 consideration in this draft. (Campbell and Banks profile as guards.) Can't see Jihaad Campbell still on the board mid-2nd RD. Absolute monster. |
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Walt you are just a Broncos hater good teams know how to win ugly and you hate it when they win period!
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@Mr. Bitter Your take on WAS/NO may be right. Saints O-line is healthy and could grind out a close game. Kool-aid may shadow McLaurin & Ekeler is out so it could easily be a grinder game. As long as WAS wins I'm good. I also like... |
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Walt I hope you don't bet against my Broncos because you will lose i'm giving you fair warning. Someday you will give the Broncos there dues.
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It's obvious which teams you like and which ones you don't because the teams you like you always bring up their injuries and make excuses for their losses and narrow victories and the teams you don't like you hold their narrow losses against them and never bring up their injuries. I totally get a power rankings should not just be the same as the standings but wins and losses matter a lot more than you give them credit for. I'll give you credit though because you get me to click on your power rankings every single time to see what the biggest joke of a power rankings said this week. |
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Cleveland should blow up the team and start over in the offseason. Get 2-3 first rounders for Garrett, and get whatever they can for Njoku. JOK may never play again.
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Cleveland needs the best OT. Theirs are either beat up (Conklin, Jones), terrible, or both (Jedrick Wills). They should draft another OT in the second round too lol. They also need a RB - Nick Chubb is done, sorry to say.
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@Baird For what it's worth, I think the Rams win out and take the NFC West. It all points to that SEA/LAR Week 18 game, which I think the Rams win (assuming they stay healthy). McVay kinda owns the Seahawks. I like SEA, but they're inconsistent and I gotta go with a dialed-in Stafford over Geno in a for-all-the-marbles game. I like the vibe the Rams have going right now. They're balanced and efficient. I was worried that their young defensive front seven might fade, but then it occurred to me that Verse, Fiske, Turner, Young are grown men. Very smart of Snead/McVay to target mature, experienced prospects in the draft during their on-the-fly defensive rebuild. Side notes: Turner is a stud. Elite interior pressure metrics. His matchup vs. the SF interior D-line (good zone run-blockers, bad in pass pro) was another big reason I liked the Rams over SF. Kinda liking that All-Kam safety duo you got going. Kinchens was a steal. |
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@Baird This seems like a gift. Could easily be the type of game script where Henry and Hill feast for 3 quarters and even Keaton Mitchell gets in there in the 4th quarter and gets 15 yards and a TD. |
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@Baird I started the week on the right foot with small plays on the Rams and the UNDER. (Weather, sketchy SF offense without Trent Williams.) Not sure why so many were on the Niners in that spot - the Rams and Niners are plainly going in opposite directions. Been mostly fading SF and ARI for a while now. Been thinking for a few months that the NFC West would come down to LAR and SEA. Don't have a feel for CIN/TEN. Shootout potential if Pollard plays, but rain/wind might be factors. Calvin Ridley vs. Josh Newton screams mismatch, but that's assuming Levis doesn't lay an egg. He's overdue. No reason why BAL won't give the Giants a snot-bubble beating. My gut says the Saints give WAS a game. I'm worried WAS's bye week may have derailed that little bit of momentum they got back after dropping three straight. Then again, it also allowed Daniels more time to heal up. Kamara and Kendre Miller should be able to bit off chunks behind Erik McCoy and keep the game low-scoring and tight. Daron Payne is QUESTIONABLE and Jer'Zhan Newton is putrid vs. the run. I also worry that the effectiveness of the Kingsbury scheme will continue it's annual pattern of late-season fades. Will probably give my plays tomorrow. GL |
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@Mr. Bitter - great info right there! Crazy FG game was odd. Now I'm hoping LAR can win the div & make a playoff run. The last second FG killed my middle, but most of my $ was on Rams so all good. I want to love TEN this week but Pollards D-D-L is sketchy. Brown, Rankins & the LB crew are out (CIN is starting an undrafted LB so Chig & Pollard could do well). I'm backing off a little awaiting Pollard news. My biggest tease is WAS -1 and next is BAL -8.5. I cant imagine the Saints kill me like they did vs CLE, but any given Sunday. GL |
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When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs. The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8. On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0. Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without. Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest. |
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@Baird That is so embarrassing. Might be 6-0. Then again, the Jets need their annual late-season/meaningless win that ensures they drop out of range for a decent QB in the draft. |
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@Baird Hey, don't give DET too much credit. It was Eberflus that beat CHI by 3. I'm with Walt. BUF wins SU. |
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Ok, last one for now... Justice Hill (BAL) Over 12.5 Rushing Yards |
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AZ @ CAR (WK16)- Walt, I hope you're right on ARI>NE. Would love to see AZ get a big dome win. Dont care about DAL @ CAR (small tease on CAR), but would love to go big next week w/ AZ outdoors, season lost, on the East coast vs a stout O-line. Love CAR next week. TEN - Walt's write-up is spot on; love TEN +11 this week. Made $$$ teasing Dal last week and will keep it going. This is assuming Sweat, Awuzie & Boyd (revenge) are a "GO". So mad NFL flexed off CLE vs CIN TNF - would have been perfect. Titan's D-line vs CIN O-line is scary. Also, Latham vs Hendrickson is a wash (not like Guyton). Gibbens still out tho = big deal. LB Wilson out, Bachie Doubtful = Pollard finally getting a TD? |
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Im a fan of LAR so I teased bigger on 8-8.5 & small SF +3.5 only. Hate the game after LAR win vs BUF + Durant out + Hufunga healthy & possibly Bosa back. As an Anaheim Rams fan I have a skewed view. GL
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@Mr. Bitter - Hey, they beat CHI by 3, HOU by 3 and GB by 3 (I'm not counting that fluke TD). They did destroy the Colts, Jags & Titans so... watch out BUF. I went small on BUF +7.5 & 8
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@DoctorJ My only beef with this analysis is the defensive stats angle. DET's defensive stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt now that their front seven has been decimated by injury. I mean, Glenn's scheming is top-notch, but when you're down to starting guys like Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O'Connor, Jonah Williams, Ezekial Turner...that's gotta catch up to you. |
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I have to disagree with Walter on his prediction of BUF 27, DET 24. The Bills are playing back-to-back road games against playoff teams while the Lions are home both games. Buffalo is weaker on D in every category on most defensive categories (Total D Run Yds. Allowed, Total TDs Allowed, 3rd Down Pct. Allowed and Red Zone D Allowed. The Bills are coming off a hard-fought game w/the LA Rams that they lost while the Lions played on TNF so have an added 3 extra days of rest and time for a better game plan. Yet he picked the SF 49ers to win 31 - 24 over the LA Rams for that very reason.
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I know I will seem like a South Dakota State homer but no Adam Bock or Gus Miller is just purely criminal.
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"They’ve beaten no winning teams since losing Christian Darrisaw." Weren't the Cardinals 6-5 when they faced off against the Vikings? Technically, could say Vikings have not lost to any winning teams after losing Darrisaw too. |
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@xndrshadow who says that wentz wins the SB if healthy? The way that his backup Foles played it would've been difficult to match him. I agree Wentz was on an MVP pace but Foles was fresh and fired up. He was a terrible starter but that stretch of games he was pure magic. Oh and I'm from same town as Wentz so I'm no Hater. Sucked to see his career fall apart because of injuries. It's crazy to think he and Goff went 1-2 and Goff is better than ever while Wentz is out of the league. Some guys just are injury prone while some take hut after hit and never miss a game.
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@will33sx then they'd take a 220 lb pasa rusher with umanmilean sitting there, Deone Walker over Walter Nolen or Derrick Harmon who has the size to play nose and 3 tech. Walker had the one season with 7.5 sacks while the other 2 combined for 2.5 I believe. Which tells me that he had a fluky season and is supposed to be rather weak for his size. I'm glad you're not the Bears GM though he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire.
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Fiesta off the Beads need help in both trenches so the answer is a safety? Will Campbell and especially Abdul Carter are available and they take a safety? I guess it does sound like a Poles thing to do but if he does he should lose his job.
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@Mr. Bitter the sad thing is Arch couldn't beat Ewers out for the job. At least he's not like most of these kids and transfer when they lose the competition. They all want to star immediately and even though they've been paid they leave,because they're just a bunch of entitles children. The portal and NIL has made college football a professional league. I'm surprised they have to go to school ,i suppose alot don't and that's why they love the SEC with their extremely low academic standards.
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@richardkenny21 I've watched a bit of Milroe and in thr loss at Tennessee with a chance to make a comeback and Milroe couldn't even get the ball within 5 yards of his receivers. I'd say hard pass in the 1st for Milroe unless they traded up for him at 32. Sewers in the 1st is a joke as well and having 4 QB's in the top 7?! I'd bet there won't be 4 in the 1st rd.
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No walter nolen or did I miss him,because you have the Bears taking Capehart who has done nothkng and you pass on Wlarer Nolen Nad Derrick Harmon who are much better players . The Bears could use Omarian Hampton since they can get out of Swifts deal after this season and Roschon offers nothing but blocking. They need a big tackle breaking back who as we can see from his stats is also a special receiver,he'd be the perfect back for Caleb and the terrible offensive line and for a season he could split time with Swift. Also in the first round id rather they take Williams the edge from Georgia over Will Campbell since the depth st tackle snd guards mich better. They could get a guy like Ersery,Savaiianea or Booker and then grab Monheim at center in the 3rd if available that is.i like Egbuka but just prefer Hampton who would do more for Caleb and the offense as a whole. The DT selection is just a head scratcher especially since you didn't give then an edge and there are some solid options along with the 2 tackles I mentioned above. Even Deone Walker would be a better choice. Just a cluster F*** of a draft and I'd cry if that's the DT they chose.
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If the Bears use their first 2 picks on defensive players and not the offensive line, then Poles should be fired immediately after the draft.
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YOU SURE PUT OUT A LOT OF INfo to be so bad at picking these games.I could bring up a bunch of examples ,but I will use the bears game only.San Francisco was my favorite play i put 5 units on them.The bears are horrible and the 49ers are a good team at home.If i looked right i didn't see a lot of correct picks,I do enjoy the content and will continue to read each week even though I don't always agree.
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shedeur sanders is going to the raiders. take that to the bank. deon will not let any other team have him. the raiders will trade up, down, or sideways to get shedeur sanders. done deal.
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after watching the SEC championship game it is clear that both carson beck and quin ewers are both garbage. i have seen these 2 quarterbacks mocked in the 1st round. their draft stock took a giant sized hit. now, would not expect either of them to go any higher than round 5.
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Love the Bears at +4 this week and give a little love to the money line while you are at it
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Having Skattebo #14 is downright disgusting. Damn walterfootball, i thought i trusted you. Clearly you are t watching the Sun Devils.
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@Karensman I don't think you're mistaken. Walt's assessment of CIN/DAL is pretty spot-on. The Bengals just aren't a good team. That opening CIN -6 line is nuts to me. The only explanations I can think of are: DAL has been complete dogsh*t at home vs. any team with a pulse this season, or... ...Vegas anticipates a "pride" performance from CIN (which I might buy if CIN hadn't been so flat when it actually mattered and Zac Taylor wasn't such an ineffective HC), or... ...Vegas thinks bettors might ignore all the factors that make DAL the right side and boil it all down to "Burrow is so much better than Rush". Pissed-off Burrow going nuclear while Rush lays an egg is definitely on the table, but Burrow has been going nuclear all season and the Bengals still lose. Like Walt said - CIN has almost nothing positive going on beyond Burrow/Chase/Higgins, while a lot of positive stuff is going on for DAL right now relative to their record. DAL will probably have Diggs and Bland back at CB...Orlando Brown Jr. is DOUBTFUL just as Parsons is getting into a lather...Lamb staying positive and gutting it out...Brandin Cooks coming back...Jake Ferguson coming back just as Logan Wilson goes on IR...DeMarvion Overshown emerging as a stud...hell, even Mazi Smith has been grading out well lately. I gotta think DAL stays within a FG. I'm kinda liking SF to cover vs. your Bears. Even with all the injuries, one of those aforementioned pride games is something I could see from SF in this one, especially off two humbling road losses. Just can't see a Shanahan team quitting. The Bears are also pretty banged-up themselves. If the Niners can run on anybody right now, it's CHI, and if SF can control any team's run game right now, it's CHI. (De'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are trending OUT.) I'm thinking a back-to-basics, 23-17ish win for SF behind a strong performance from Isaac Guerendo. |
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@Baird LV absolutely can't run the ball. They shouldn't even waste their time trying vs. TB. I imagine Irving/White/Tucker will find success from jump, so O'Connell should be flinging it early and often. The TB pass D is susceptible. The Bucs are awful defending the slot. If Tykee Smith is OUT again, Meyers could practically be running against air. Bowers will do his usual Bowers things, so there's real shootout potential in this one - assuming LV puts forth a little effort. I don't see why they wouldn't - it's not as if they're coming down from anything. They were never in contention to begin with. Pierce and his staff are awful, but the players like them, so I can't imagine LV just full-on rolling over. I'm sniffing around an O'Connell/Meyers/Bowers stack for DFS tournaments, maybe with an Otton runback. (Two-TE uniqueness/Mike Evans hurt, QUESTIONABLE). I'm with you on the Giants emerging with the #1 pick. Miserable vibes in that locker room. Drew Lock is now operating behind 3rd-string OTs...that's going to get really ugly. Schoen and Daboll feel like dead men walking. |
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I get Walt's GB pick but it feels like its Detroit's year. Now some would say then why didn't they handle Chicago? Well it was Thanksgiving and of course that would be made into a close game. I think Detroit makes a statement tonight despite the injuries. Scratch 'think' I feel. Which I know to people picking games they'd rather it be pure objective analysis. We'll see how it goes.
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LVR vs TB - I keep finding myself putting O'Connell, Meyers & Bowers in DK lineups. The price is right on QB at $4,800. Brock is the most expensive TE, but for good reason (TB#27 D vs TE) and Meyers is under-priced at $5,700.
MY POINT? If I keep adding them to lineups shouldn't I expect this game to be close? I mean, LVR put up... 17 vs KC 19 vs DEN 17 vs MIA Those are good Ds. Plus, TB seems like they're in letdown mode - OT win vs div rival, Baker beat-up & prob not going to give full attention to crappy non-conference, 2-10 team. Once again, I didn't learn my lesson and went too big early in the week on TB -0.5; now I like LVR +12.5 Full disclosure: ESPN Bet guy went into detail on why LVR is the front-runner to have the worst record and get #1 draft pick. Maybe he's right and they already gave up. MY NOTE: there are 3 teams vying for #1 pick - NYG, LVR & JAX. Jags go to Vegas wk16 so 1 of those teams get a win. NYG seem like #1 winner. *I cant name a single college player so 1, 2 or 3 draft pick is lost on me. |
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@Mr. Bitter - ATL was def the right side. Cousins single handedly blew that game. How bad is he slumping? Watch him try so hard in MIN (2 picks? 350 yds? IDK). The letdown from LAC was real - they gave up 5 sacks to the weakest pass rush. Luckily I teased +7 so I'm happy, but was hoping for a win cause the div race is getting too close. Now I have to find the right game to close out this teaser...
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I stand by this call. ATL wins handily if Kirk Cousins doesn't perform like he's Earl Morrall/SBIII-level on the take.
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@Mr. Bitter & Baird : Interesting analysis on the Cardinals. To me they look like a team that is a year away [ as does the Chargers ] . M. Harrison Jr. is talented but plays like a rookie and there seems to be a serious problem with quality depth. I noticed from watching the game, especially late in the 4th quarter, that K. Murray seemed reluctant to use his legs to move the chains ? I don't know what to make of that. As a long time Bear fan I hate to bet them but I think that the Bears are the play this week. No Eberflus around to screw up, and the 49ers are decimated with injuries. Frankly they might not win another game this year as it has to be apparent to their veterans that the team is not going anywhere this year. Lately the Bears have been playing everyone close and the 3 1/2 points should be a nice cushion for a team that should be highly motivated to win. I make my own line before the actual lines come out and I made the Bengals - 1 over the Cowboys. I was thinking this might be the time to finally back the Bengals but the line has them favored by - 6 ! If I decide to bet that game I would definitely take the Cowboys. The Bengals defense is atrocious, I can't see them holding a lead late in a close game. I know the Cowboys stink, but they have been getting some of their injured players back and they seemed to have a little bit of momentum. I am seldom that far off on a line, and I'm really confused about the 6 point spread. Am I mistaken ? |
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"The only area in which the Browns should have success is with Winston targeting David Njoku, given that the Broncos can be weak to tight ends."
A few paragraphs below... "We’re also going under on David Njoku (46.5). The Broncos have been outstanding against tight ends recently." Make it make sense! |
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Sharps on the Jets as Ian Rapoport reports Aaron Rodgers won't return to the Jets next season lol. |
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Sharps ALL over SEA Flipped them from Dog to fav NOT NYJ And on CAR +6.5 and TEN +7.5 |
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@Mr. Bitter - the drop off from Dobbins to Edwards cant be ignored and the Harbaugh bowl on MNF naturally leads to a letdown from LA. Playing at home, off a bye screams ATL. I hope you're right because I have a big ticket for ATL to win their div. GL
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@Mr. Bitter - thanks for the input. I decided to avoid the ML as the 9U for 5U risk/reward isnt worth it. I still like MIN and decided to go the teaser route instead, mixing 2-game teasers w/ DEN, LAR, SEA & BUF. GL
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I know magas dislike fact checkers, but there hasn't been a team named the Redskins for several seasons.
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Anybody looking at Holland pierce out of Rutgers? He came a long way and can play at the next level. Loves the game.
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My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably. It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore. For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.) As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense. The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets. Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.) I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.) Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up. |
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@Baird "I suck at betting AZ & NO " Same here. But I think I may have finally figured the Cardinals out. (As for the Saints - they had their little, new rah-rah coach, pre-bye fun. I think the Rams beat them in workmanlike fashion.) ARI GM Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon were great hires. They're establishing culture the right way and the arrow is pointing up for the organization. So when they face teams that are poorly coached (those pre-bye Ws vs. MIA, CHI and NYJ perfect examples), they TCB - especially if the opponent struggles vs. the run. Otherwise, the Cardinals can be had. They just don't have a very talented depth chart (especially on defense) and it catches up to them when they face teams with a good coaching staff. You take away Conner, and the offense becomes little more than McBride-or-bust, as none of the WRS have been able to create separation or YAC this season. Petzing's scheme has grown predictable and has shackled Murray. (One game above 21 rushing yards since Week 5.) The interior O-line is a glaring weakness and was fully exposed by SEA. The Vikings are extremely well-coached and nails vs. the run. ARI doesn't match up well at all. As for the Flores blitz vs. Murray angle, I'm calling for variance. I would bet MIN if not for the Pace injury and my distrust of Sam Darnold.
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@Baird Niners are just decimated, while the Bills are getting Milano back and are near full health (Kincaid). The only pro-SF angles I can muster up are Shanahan's sparkling post-Halloween record, it's must-win time for the Niners (while BUF has the AFC East in the bag), Jaylon Moore has been somewhat decent in relief of Trent Williams at LT, and SF gets a boost with Purdy likely back. (Although Walt's "bet against the obviously injured QB" angle is rock solid.) Niners are always a threat with McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Jennings (although I'm beginning to wonder if McCaffrey's wheels are shot), but BUF just has such a pronounced advantage in the trenches in this one. On top of all that...lake-effect snow. This just might be a lost season for the Niners. Any given Sunday - but it takes a good amount of mental gymnastics to not think BUF is a clean play, especially teased to SU. |
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AZ vs MIN - the Chargers & Vikings are tied for least rushing TDs allowed in the league at 5. This is the 1st home game for Min in 4 weeks. Walt - I appreciate you digging into Murray's blitz #s. AZ has SEA next = SEA, min, SEA. I'm playing the ML... MIN -9U to win 5U
It sucks that Pace Jr. is out cause MIN is #9 vs TE (McBride). At least Cashman is healthy. I would be worried that AZ is #1 in penalties, but MIN is #3. FULL DISCLOSURE: I suck at betting AZ & NO |
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@Mr. Bitter - yes, I'm 100% going off injuries for SF vs CHI. I read about the week 4 fracture + no Greenlaw = LB crew seems to be a lost cause. I'm hoping SF gets worked on the East coast - no LT, LG, RDT, RDE, Lenior (maybe Rock Ya-Sin fills in) but that seems to be a common theme of mine that fails. I love teasing BUF to 0 BUF is coming off a bye, but has @LAR & @ DET next (no conf worries). Maybe they come strong seeing KC eek out a win today. Is it too easy going BIG on BUF0? |
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@carettirichard I'm not sure about Sanders as a #1 overall-type prospect, but we all know about the draft and QB supply-and-demand. I think he'll separate from the pack - I don't think Ward or Milroe won't go as high as currently projected after they get picked apart during the pre-draft process. Pretty sure JAX sticks with T-Law, but you never know, and it's fun to speculate. For what it's worth, I think Mason Graham would be a great fit for JAX. They need an interior difference-maker to complement Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Graham would also be a clean, "culture" pick for the new coaching staff. If JAX gets the 1st pick and can move down a few spots for a bunch of picks and still get graham, that would be tits. |
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Looking at his stats the raiders would be idiots to take Jalen Milroy over ward or ewers.but this is the raiders where talking about so probably. |
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@Karensman Ohio resident here. Seems like the Burrow/wrist quotes are being overblown a bit. He basically just said that - in the past - cold weather has had an affect on his injuries, which is just kinda "duh". He said he "could have been better" throwing in practice, but "I/we could have been better" is his weekly default answer for everything, so I wouldn't read too much into that. |
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@Walt For your MIA/GB PPB & SGP, are you sure there will be enough passing goodness to go around for the RBs, TEs and Watson? Forecast at Lambeau is calling for freezing temps, 10-15mph sustained winds with 25mph gusts. Both teams have been leaning into the run heavily lately and the weather forecast should only turn that up to 11. The MIA pass defense controls lid-lifters (4th-fewest YPPA), while the GB offense over the last four weeks is tops in rush rate in the red zone. Deep passes and RZ jump balls are how Watson makes his money. Just feels like the kinda game script that leaves Watson with one of his 2-20-0 stat lines. |
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@Mr. Bitter & Baird: As a long time Bear fan I doubt that this week will be the Bears Super Bowl but I honestly don't know what to expect. Last year they gave the Lions fits, losing at Detroit due to Eberflus ineptitude [ blew the win late ] but beat the Lions handily at Soldier Field and roughed up Goff who is not the same outdoors in bad weather. I think their 'Super Bowl' will be in a couple of weeks when they play the Lions at home. I do like the Over tomorrow. Has anyone heard about Burrow complaining about his wrist ? According to what I read he is complaining about pain in cold weather and has not been throwing the ball well in practice ? If he is hurting and ready to shut it down, that team has a lot of quit in it.
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@Baird How dare you pooh-pooh the great Dan Skipper! I want so badly to throw some cabbage at CHI. Offense is ramping up a bit since the Waldron firing and return of some O-line starters...Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. those DET CBs...could be CHI's Super Bowl...it all screams back door. Then I remember Campbell vs. Eberflus. And like you said, CHI may be running on fumes. The injuries don't seem to be letting up for SF. New reports say Fred Warner has a fractured ankle (would explain those uncharacteristic missed tackles lately), and Trent Williams was just seen in the SF locker room using a knee scooter. Reportedly, he "can barely walk" and is probably dealing with an Achilles injury. Not good. Both are likely trending more toward trips to the IR than returns to health. Niners are just getting eaten alive by the injury bug. Beginning to wonder if there's something to that Super Bowl Loser Curse stuff. |
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@Baird Hubbard sucks so, so bad. Two starts: 7 pressures allowed to TB, and 12 (!!!) pressures allowed to PIT in WK 8. Parsons is cleared for takeoff. Your UNDER is definitely the play. Could we see a 0-0 tie? |
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@DoctorJ - I take it back. Burns vs Guyton, Lawrence vs Hoffman (Martin out) and NYG strength Phillips vs Lamb. I cant guess the state of the locker room in NY though. Drew Lock sucks but he can scramble. Throwing a little on the UNDER - GL
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CHI vs DET - Det is amazing, they win. The End.
CHI got worked by NE a few weeks ago, but I should have noticed the 3-game division stretch they had ahead of them. So far CHI lost... 20-19 vs GB (should have won) 30-27 vs MIN (lucky to go to OT) CHI fought hard during this stretch - can it continue? Hard to say because of road game on a short week. DET is missing Decker and CDIII. They have 3 great linemen which helps, but Goff's blindside is a liability. The BIG problem is DET's CB group. The drop off from Davis to Dorsey is huge. Not to mention the others are very weak. Thankfully they have #1 & #3 safeties, but CHI's MO lately has been "get the ball out quick". Its hard to trust Willams and da Bears offense, but they are the right side with this inflated line in a div game. I wish this wasnt a short week &/or it was @ Soldier field because this would be a great opportunity. TLDR - teasing 15.5-16 is way more inviting than DET @ -3.5 to -4 Side note: love SF @ home vs CHI next week (assuming the injuries let up) |
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@DoctorJ Amazing news - I was hoping Lock would go. He looked so bad in preseason, there was a reason he's #3 on depth chart. 1 or 2 int? Parsons 2 or 3 sacks vs Hubbard? |
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Adam Schefter reported today that Drew Lock has replaced Tommy DeVito as the QB for the NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys in tomorrow's Thanksgiving Day game. That should shift the Giants as the favorite.
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@akowahl LDE L.J. Collier NT Roy Lopez RDE Dante Stills LOLB Baron Browning WLB Kyzir White MLB Mack Wilson Sr. ROLB Zaven Collins LCB Sean Murphy-Bunting SS Dadrion Taylor-Demerson FS Budda Baker RCB Starling Thomas V NB Garrett Williams With the exception of Budda Baker and maybe Garrett Williams, there isn't a player on this depth chart that would start for the MIN defense. Gannon/Rallis have done a remarkable job of overcoming injuries and scheming to the strengths of what they have to work with, but schematic smoke-and-mirrors can mask such a glaring lack of talent for only so long. ARI would have lost to SEA - bye or no bye - because their recent success isn't sustainable. The Chargers are the only team ARI has beaten that likely makes the playoffs, and ARI's only convincing pre-bye wins were at home over CHI and NYJ - teams that were at-or-near rock bottom and can't stop the run. Six years into the career of a former #1 overall pick, "efficient" shouldn't be okay. Especially when efficient really just means dump-offs to Trey McBride when the running game is clicking. Where is that Murray dual-threat action? Where is the connection with MHJ? We've only seen flashes, so why should I assume Murray will just turn it on when teams bottle up Conner, as SEA did and MIN will likely do? All that said...you could easily be right about ARI winning. As you suggested, the Vikings are kinda fraudulent, too, and Sam Darnold is never to be trusted. (For what it's worth, the Ivan Pace Jr. injury and rock-the-boat signing of Daniel Jones has me leaning ARI ATS.) But a win over MIN wouldn't convince me that ARI is a great or even good team, and only push them that much more into overrated - not underrated - territory, IMO. |
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@petermwb To be fair, Wentz was elite before injuries at least. He was the unanimous MVP in 2017 before getting injured late in the season. Philadelphia does not win the Super Bowl without his efforts to earn them the top seed. Agree with your overall point though
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I don't see it at all with Milroe. He's not the next Jalen Hurts if that's what teams are thinking. He's legitimately a 5th rounder to me at best
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@Mr. Bitter The bye is a doubled edged sword, it works great if you are coming off a loss or multiple losses. Gives you time to get things in order. Doesn't work so hot if it kills your momentum and are on a win streak like the Cards were. To say that a team isn't good/great because they lost against a good divisional team (that you yourself view as under rated) is a little short sighted and nothing for the Cards to hang their head about. Also Kyler didn't have a good game vs a Seattle defense that's pretty good, but before that during their 4 game win streak there are plenty of articles and opinions that he's been playing his most efficient football of his career. Cards will win outright and expose the Vikings this week. |
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That cardinals loss to Seadderall was a fluke. They had a td negated early in the game. And had another one dropped. Otherwise it was easy Clapps again. Minnesota will get cocky and as a result, will lose
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@Karensman Agreed - tough week. I like KC, TB, BUF and DEN to TCB, but those spreads are right about where they should be. I really want to continue fading ARI (overrated, IMO), but - as you said - MIN is also overrated. MIN just put Ivan Pace, Jr. on I.R. - an underrated blow to that defense. Phillips/Cashman/Pace has been a run defense Bermuda Triangle all season. Interested to see if cracks emerge and Conner finds a little daylight. TEN will probably be my play this week. I know that banking on Levis to string together any amount of mistake-free games is asking for trouble, but I think there is still a little meat on that WAS bone. Daniels seems to be favoring his ribs, and we're at that point in the season where even the best of rookies meet the wall. I'm also not too concerned about TEN's situation at CB, as McLaurin is WAS's only threat at WR and can be doubled. During NFL Draft season, my concern with Daniels as a prospect was that his playing style/lack of body armor would lead to annual injuries and late-season regression. Still believe that to be the case. He's just so skinny. Agree on HOU/JAX. HOU is overvalued, but are we supposed to bet on Mac Jones with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter in his face? |
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@Mr. Bitter : I agree that TEN + 6 appears tempting. I don't know if Daniels is still hurt or that Wash is regressing to the mean, but I'm not interested in wagering on them at this time. Not thrilled with this week's schedule; I couldn't lay 4 points with DAL against a good college team and there appears to be traps all over the place. Are you confident in laying 3 with the RAMS on the road in NO ? I'm leaning towards the Cards + 3 1/2 but that is more a fade against the overrated Vikings than an endorsement of the Cards. The wrong team is favored in the Bengal-Steeler game, and I'm interested in the DOL + 3 1/2 but not at - 3. I'm not confident that the TEXANS should be favored by - 5 on the road but want no part of the Jags without Lawrence. Tough week to lay points and not really a great week to take underdogs. Might be a good week to watch !
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TEN +6 is tempting. Jayden Daniels is injured and struggling, and WAS could be without Andrew Wylie, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler.
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The Steelers might be underrated, as crazy as that might sound. Nobody believes in them, and I’m convinced that they were sleepwalking against the Browns. Their defense is still elite.
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I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA. Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place. Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom. |
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@v2micca Ardent Jets fan here. You are 100% right. The Jets are receiving nothing but negative press right now. If/when Rodgers is benched or injured, the switch to Tyrod Taylor might actually push the Jets toward underrated territory. Even at 35, Taylor probably still has functional mobility - which Rodgers absolutely doesn't anymore. |
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Reminder, the best player drafted this year is Bo Nix. Travis Lawrence is just as good as him. Why does JAX SUCK ? Scheme, coaching and talent around him. Denver has a very good OL giving Nix a lot of time and a lot of guys who can get open due to scheme -- I would fire that JAX coach, trade the 1st pick and start building a real team around Lawrence |
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Travis Hunter has incredible athleticism and he can exploit far INFERIOR talent guarding him in the subpar Big-12 conference. Be interesting to see how he does against SUPERIOR NFL talent. |
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He has and NFL OL and NFL WRs and Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama STILL SUCKS -- I might take a chance on him in the 7th round
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Shedeur Sanders will be a big time BUST -- He has 10 yard windows to throw into in the worst conference in CFB. Those windows don't exist in the NFL and those DL, LBs will eat his ass alive
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How are the Jets considered overrated. All but the most ardent Jets fans and Aaron Rodgers believers view the entire organization as a raging dumpster fire. Are you implying that even those basement level evaluations of the team are overrating it?
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@Karensman - I'm not good enough to take on the Vegas spreads directly so I mostly play teasers. I was lucky to hit the HOU/KC under @ 48.
I like your idea of LAR/NYJ over and your point w/ DET's injuries is definitely valid. Its just so hard to know what CHI team will show up. I teased a small amount on DET -0.5, but nothing crazy. GL this week