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Name the five teams better than the Ravens.

Bucs at 17?? Someone is obviously butthurt thier team got an ass woopin lmao what a joke! Baker leads the league in Tuddies moron 

Looks like Walter is going to have a good weekend of football, congrats man.  I see that you are a proponent of hedging closing teasers with straight play hedges.  As a a big ol' teaser player myself over the last 4 decades or so, I would like to know if you have any records on those plays, either positive or negative. I have found in my straight hedge teaser plays,  that when I straight hedge a teaser play, I find that I rarely get a "middle" result and way more times than not,  I find I shouldn't have hedged my teaser play at all. So in my world, for the last 20 years or so,  I personally don't  hedge against  ANY  teaser play front end or closing end.  To each their own.  Again,  congrats today.

UPDATE:

On Thursday, Browns DE Za'Darius Smith was asked by a reporter about the possibility of being traded to Detroit.

"I didn't even know about it. I'm trying to stay positive; but now that you say that, Detroit might be a good look, a good feel for me...hopefully we can get a win this week and get back on the right track...But if I was to go to Detroit, I would like it"

I tell ya, these Browns seem absolutely focused like a laser on their upcoming Super Bowl vs. the Bengals.

@Karensman 

With you on the LAC/ARI OVER.

We know about ARI's defense, but they also happen to be the worst defense vs. explosive runs, and JK Dobbins just happens to be near the top of the league in explosive run %...with Slater and Alt now healthy. The Chargers will run at will.

On the other side, LAC are near the bottom in explosive passing plays allowed, and might be without their top 3 CBs and likely without LOLB Joey Bosa to take advantage of ARI's O-line weak link at RT. Murray is overdue an eruption. I think that 44 gets dusted.

@raindoggg 

Waitress shaming. Tsk tsk. DO. BETTER.

@Karensman 

Not a comedian, just find humor to be a more fun and effective way of making a point than the usual antagonistic dialogue seen online.

Baker Mayfield is the QB I'm talking about. CLE did him dirty upon signing Watson.

Mayfield is the best QB in the NFC right now. Mahomes and Allen are commonly at the top of MVP race lists, but Mayfield has been more productive by every metric. I get that there's more to winning the MVP than raw numbers, but check this out:

Mayfield leads the NFL in TD passes (15) by three. (Mahomes has 10 TD passes, Allen has 6.)

Mayfield is 4th in the NFL in completion % at 70.9. (Mahomes 69.4, Allen 62.8)

Mayfield is 2nd in the NFL in QBR. (109.4, just behind Joe Burrow's 110.2 - Mahomes 88.9, Allen 106.8)

But what about the stuff Mahomes and Allen can do with their legs/off-platform?

Mayfield is averaging 6.5 Rushing YPC, with 2 rushing TDs. (Lamar Jackson is averaging 6.3 YPC with 2 TD, Allen 5.1 YPC, Mahomes 3.6 YPC. Mayfield is behind only Kyler Murray's ridiculous 8.7 in YPC)

Mayfield's stats aren't just empty calories. He's coming up big in clutch moments and winning games, often despite an injury-wrecked defense and ineffective running game. It's not a fluke - his improvement over the last two seasons has been easily observable. Basically, his career arc is the direct opposite of Watson's, adding one more to the scroll of reasons the Watson signing has been catastrophic for the Browns and made them an unwagerable team.

Sorry, but I'm hoping Flacco starts. Got Josh Downs FLEXing on my fantasy team. Looks like it'll be Richardson though. GL on your end.

@Karensman I think he's a waitress actually.  

@Mr. Bitter: I'm short on time so I have to make this quick but are you a comedian or joke writer for one ? Not only is your analysis very informative but I spilled my coffee this morning laughing because it was hilarious. I have one quick question though : who is the QB that Cleveland kicked to the curb that is a candidate for MVP ? Are you talking Flacco ? BYW, I'm hoping that the Colts go back to Richardson this week. 

@Baird : Obviously my best bet this week was Denver, there is nothing that really stands out for the rest of the games, but I have Denver in a parlay with the Dolphins + 3, and also with Arizona Over 44. Arizona can't stop anyone [ Defense is atrocious ] and Herbert and Murray scream shootout although Harbaugh will try to run the ball and eat clock. Also, I haven't read anything lately but in the last few years the over has been very strong [ roughly 60% ] when teams are playing out of conference [ AFC vs. NFC ] . The thinking is that the teams only play on a semi-occasional basis so the offense has the advantage over the defense. As far as the Dolphins, I'm probably going against my own advice [ Colts head coach > Dolphins head coach ] but Colts injuries are staggering and I expect a close game. Dolphins coming off a bye and Huntley had to be helped by 2 weeks to learn offense, get in game shape, etc. but I don't like the bet enough to make any serious bet.     

And the list of Thursday night injuries just gets longer and longer, never taking a week off. 

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

@Droford 

I loled.

Patriots, 4 units (loss)

Raiders, 3 units (loss)

Panthers, 5 units (loss)

Jets, 8 units (loss)

"I don't know what I did to deserve this horrible luck, but it's been killing us since the beginning of last season. if anyone has any ideas on how to reverse my fortune, please let me know!"

It's almost like directionless, crappy teams with crappy coaches and crappy QBs tend to pile up penalties and turnovers and stuff. It's crazy.

My suggestion to Walt to recoup those losses is to back the Browns because the ghost of Nick Chubb might play. He'll surely hit the ground limping behind Michael Dunn and Zak Zinter into a CIN D-line that's finally fully healthy after returning half it's rotation from injury over the last few weeks. It doesn't matter that the Bengals will stack the box because Deshaun Watson has no viable weapons and can't throw a rock into the ocean anyway. It's Nick Chubb!

Also, CIN is 2-4 and must win to keep playoff hopes alive. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been down this road before, having overcome slow starts to make two recent AFC Championship games and nearly making the playoffs behind Jake Freakin' Browning. So there's no doubt CIN will come out flat against a CLE squad that's gotta be totally fired up after scoring that one offensive TD three weeks ago and trading away their only reliable offensive weapon.

Also also, Watson is the worst QB in the NFL and hated by his teammates, but will remain the starter by ownership decree. Meanwhile, the CLE QB that teammates actually liked that was kicked to the curb in favor of Watson is now arguably the best QB in the NFC and a fringe MVP candidate. Nothing but good vibes in Cleveland! The Browns are pumped and will totally beat the Bengals, who have nothing to play for because Nick Chubb and CIN/CLE home/road history overdue to even out! Easy money!

;

;

<em>;gt;

Dudes,

I'm a Longhorns fan.  Dad played for them one season in the early 50's before breaking his leg.  So, I bleed orange blood.

However, seeing this draft with Texas QB Quinn Ewers going to the Raiders at #7 makes me feel the pain for Raiders fans.

Ewers isn't even the best QB on the Longhorns team right now.

Closing a two team 6.5 teaser from last week with the Bills -2.5 this Sunday.

@Karensman 

You make some great points. Any plays you like this week?

"I'm not picking bad teams anymore"

goes on to pick the Browns, Giants and Dolphins just in early games.

@Karensman 

I don't think that Amari Cooper was ever really a game-changer. Like Walt said, his value lies in route-running/efficiency/reliability; a Henry Ellard/Isaac Bruce-type that remains an effective starter even at 33-34 years old. I don't think he's slipped this season - I think he was just done with waving at Watson's inaccurate passes. (He was visibly frustrated the last few games.)

Reliability is exactly what Josh Allen needs at WR. It was good of CLE to trade Cooper to a contender that will feed him properly. It was also a clear indication that they know the season is lost. Laying cabbage on a team that has packed it in and is led by a very expensive Zach Wilson just doesn't seem like a good idea. DEF/ST TDs aren't going to happen every week.

I shudder to think what the CLE offense will look like now. A million Jerry Jeudy wind sprints broken up by the occasional dropped pass I guess. Elijah Moore...I don't even bother to check if he's active or inactive during DFS research anymore because it really doesn't matter. The Browns better hope Njoku stays healthy. (He won't. The downside of being an Adonis is that you're also a pulled muscle waiting to happen.)

What you said about recognizing and getting ahead of the curve on teams that are improving/trending in the right direction is such an important aspect of betting. Foundational, really. I always try to sniff out the dog with a sustainable plan/direction vs. the directionless favorite.

A couple of observations : I agree with Mr. Bitter that teams don't trade their best offensive weapon [ although I'm not certain that Amari Cooper is much of a game changer ] in mid-season if they are a serious contender. I would also agree that with Watson at QB the Browns have a crappy offense and should be shunned for wagering purposes. And for Mr. Baird; yes, there was a reversion to the means after this week's results, although I'm not certain a weekend with most favorites and overs winning is 'normal'. According to the column by Todd Dewey in the LV-Review Journal the books in Vegas got absolutely' killed' this weekend. All 4 afternoon games finished favorite and over which the 'squares' love to bet blindly in parlays. However, don't cry for the books because they have been having a fantastic year so far. 

  I would like to make one point that Walter should probably take a little more into account; lean towards wagering on the better head coach in a matchup. Example this week Sean Peyton returns to N.O. where he was a fixture for years and he's going up against one of the worst in the league, Dennis Allen. This game may be Denver's Super Bowl, the organization understands they are not contenders this year but are improving and trending the right way. How badly do you think that Peyton wants to win this Thursday night game on national tv ? Probably more than the game last Sunday vs. the Chargers. Walter did take the Broncos which I think is the right side. Just my opinion. Good luck to all    

 

"This is Cleveland's Super Bowl"

Teams don't trade their best offensive weapon right before the Super Bowl.

The Bengals/Giants game was NY's Super Bowl (Daboll went for it on seemingly every 4th down), yet CIN - in a flat spot off an OT heartbreaker to BAL - still managed to cover. At 2-4, CIN is still in must-win mode while CLE is already trading vets in preparation for a post-Watson rebuild.

The CLE offense hasn't scored 20 points or reached 300 yards in any game this season. The offense has scored once in it's last 29 drives. Until Watson is benched, the Browns ARE crappy.

Cardinals will draft an OL theirs is injury prone AF

The defensive backfield is currently the deepest position on the Bears.  They may want some young depth behind Byard, but it's not happening in the first round.   

The only are of real concern is the offensive line. They may well have 4 new starters next year, so they are likely to spend 1-2 early picks there.  They also haven't gotten as many sacks from Sweat this season as expected, and it's clear that Flus wants another elite pass rusher to round out the line.  Beyond those two groups, you could make an argument for a WR to replace Keenan Allen; but with them just having extended Moore and spent 9 overall on Odunze, they can afford to address it a bit later in the draft.  LB is a bit of a darkhorse.  An elite sideline-to-sideline backer is typically key in Flus's system and, while they've gotten good play out of their vets, an upgrade in the middle might be something they'd look at.  The right player probably has to fall to them to justify passing on greater positions of need, but it would make more sense than a safety. 

"Deshaun Watson just played his best game of the season"

Watson had 47 yards at halftime and didn't lead a TD drive in the game. Again. His QBR was 34.6, somehow his 2nd highest of the season.

That 11-for-11 3rd-quarter completion streak was just fluky momentum-riding from the Myles Garrett/Rodney McCloud blocked FG/TD that made the halftime score 10-10 instead of PHI up 13-3...and possibly halftime locker room threats from Garrett, who is likely tired of the defense carrying the team.

"Watson had both of his starting tackles on the field for the first time all season"

Like it matters. Watson still took 5 sacks and 10 knockdowns. He's taken 5+ sacks in 4 of 6 starts and 31 sacks this season; 10 more than the next highest number. He took 4 sacks p/game last season with a healthy interior O-line and Wills Jr. in the lineup. He hasn't accounted for even 200 yards or more than one TD in any game this season.

Wills Jr. sucks. He has since his rookie season. He had two false start penalties (including 4th-and-goal) and a 42.4 PFF grade vs. PHI. This is typical Wills Jr. stuff when he's not injured. He was PFF's 56th-ranked OT last season. (51.3)

Conklin (57.9 PFF) is a shell of his former self, just as high-mileage Nick Chubb will assuredly be when he returns from a horrific knee injury and has to run behind the likes of Michael Dunn and Zac Zinter (41.6 PFF).

Fun stats:

The CLE offense (13.5 PPG) is last in the NFL by every imaginable metric, including a 13.8% 3rd-down conversion rate. The offense hasn't scored in it's last 29 drives.

Through six games, Watson is last in the NFL in EPA, QBR, sacks taken and pocket success rate. (Behind Will Levis, mind you.) His pocket success rate (33.3%) is ahead of only David Carr, Josh Rosen, Akili Smith, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell this millennium.

Since 2006, of 566 passers graded through weeks 1-6, Watson is ranked:

QBR - 558th

Yards p/drop back - 565th

1st Down Rate - 566th

Three seasons into his 5-year contract, Watson has never thrown for 300 yards and has accounted for 2+ TDs twice.

The Watson signing was a catastrophic blunder and his coaches and teammates know it. (Amari Cooper has 100% checked out.) Watson is absolutely broken and I'm not sure if Anthony Munoz and Jon Ogden would make a difference at this point. Until Watson is benched, this is a bottom-5 team.

The Bills had as many penalties as the Jets. Tyler Bass missed a FG and an XP.

BUF has an injury-depleted defense, a hodgepodge of crap like Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel at WR and a backup RB, yet would have beat the Jets by double digits on the road if not for a Hail Mary.

Risk/reward offseason signings (Mike Williams, Tyron Smith, Haason Reddick, Javon Kinlaw) that the Jets were counting on to patch up weaknesses along the starting lineup have been more detriment than asset. 

The Jets are already on their second HC for chrissake. Ulbrich seemed in over his head vs. BUF. So NY replaced one "good DC, shouldn't be a HC" with another one. Wonderful. 

The Jets shouldn't be in the top-15 right now, let alone the top-10.

If I remember right you called the falcons overated and picked agaisnt them weekly during their superbowl run 

I was in danger of losing not only my par play with the Eagles -9 screwing around (as usual) but my important hedge play against my now defunct par was in jeopardy. I had the Browns +15 start up win hedge teaser early and had the Falcons at pick to hopefully alleviate my par loss. Falcons (pick)  finally come out of their coma in the first half and realized who they were playing and took care of business.  Leaving me with a net loss of .5 units.  Could have been worse. Had the Jets as my third spot par play early last week but of course that's now dust in the wind.  Probably going with a 2 team 6.5 point teaser starting tonight with the Jets at +7.5 with one open. Risking 1.20 units to win 1.  GLTA  tonight.

What a great week! Finally, reversion to the mean after 5+ point dogs killed it earlier this season. I havent seen an NFL weekend this normal in a long time.

• NE - bottom 3 team with a rookie QB making his 1st start lost by 20
• CAR - bottom 3 team missing key players lost to a div rival by 18
  On a side note: this was the final leg of ATL's 3-game division run. I think we see a letdown from them next week. Oh, ATL has TB after they play SEA too (4 div games in 5 weeks). I'm on the Seahawks
• AZ - won the Superbowl last week then came out flat, on the road vs a superior team and lost by 21
• WAS - stepped up in competition and showed their defensive liability
• PIT - played against a backup QB missing starting RB, star WR, #2 WR & RT. Held em to 13 points
• DET - came off bye and destroyed an inferior team missing key players. Cant wait to see them vs Min next week (too bad Hutch is done).

On to Monday night...

How much time will they spend talking about the Saleh firing? The MNF team should be talking about how important this game is in the AFC East race. NE isnt winning it; MIA isnt either - this game means so much to both teams and I expect a dog fight.

The teams seem pretty even to me and Saleh getting fired wont make AR suddenly play better. The Jets had to travel back from London, but they do get home field advantage. Another thing to note is this is BUF's 3rd road game in a row.

I dont like this game from a spread standpoint and can easily see either team winning but think it will be close - what QB makes the least mistakes? With that said, I have (2) live teasers being closed with NYJ +8.5

I'm starting another teaser with NYJ +7, SEA +9 and WAS -2.

GL to all

Kendal daniels has the potential of a Chancellor!! He needs the right backing !! 

The injury report confusion mentioned in the IND/TEN write-up is becoming too common. It's getting old. I get that teams manipulate the injury report to create uncertainty for their opponents, but you'd think the league would want to minimize uncertainty for bettors/fantasy players considering how huge those markets are to the NFL's financial success. The league has to figure out a way to tighten this up.

@Walt

You're overestimating the impact Wills Jr. and Conklin might have on what's going on in CLE. Wills isn't very good and Conklin is an aging, walking surgery scar who's likely washed. Lack of continuity on the O-line is obviously going to be an issue for any team, but the performance drop off from Wills Jr./Conklin to James Hudson III/Dawand Jones hasn't been the problem it's made out to be. The problem is Deshaun Watson. Don't feel like a noob for fading CLE; the noob thing would be to assume Watson will suddenly do anything but suck.

That said, the +9 worries me. This could easily be the game where the Browns get behind a few scores early and finally yank Watson for Winston. Winston is obviously no savior, but he can fling it and provide enough spark for a backdoor.

The Giants are a better team than their record indicates, so I agree about them being underrated. Jones looks like a franchise quarterback now

Thanks for joining in on the contest.  I half made this one for myself but hope the WF community warms up to it. 

Good call on Deebo. I thought Yuk would have the benefit lining up out left but Deebo's big TD was to the left. Bravo on the wheel/grease. Often that art supersedes stats

Walt:

I have to agree with your assessment of the Cowboys- Stealers game. If the Stealers would have had any effect passing game from Fields- the Stealers win- but with Fields hit and miss passing- it gave the Cowboys the opportunity to steal a game on national TV.

With Dak Prescott new contract- handcuffing the Cowboys for the next 4 years. It'll be rough sailing from here on out. Even when Lawrence and Parsons return-it won't be enough- because of no genuine depth on the roster. 

The Ravens  don't  draft fsu players  the vast majority  of Florida state players turn out to be complete bust  in the nfl 

Seems like Tre Harris should be somewhere on this list? Speed, size and production

Hey Walt. Love reading your write ups each week. Sunday morning updates are great. Just wanted to let you know you're gonna lose 3 units betting on those sorry Forty Whiners. I will be cashing 5 units taking the division home dog.

As a Bears fan I could definitely see them more likely take an o lineman or D lineman then a safety in the 1st round.

Im looking for some Trade Advice. I have RB’s (CMC, Jordan Mason, tony Pollard, JK dobbins, rachad white, joe Mixon, zach chab., and Najee Harris. I need a good TE or WR. I have tyler conklin for TE and George Pickens, Davante Adams (out), Cooper Kupp (bye/out) and Jalen Tolbert. I was thinking of trading joe mixon for Trey Mcbride or Drake London. Also seeing trade options for Tucker Kraft and Christian Watson. Should i hold tight or make some trades. Anyone outside of who i mentioned that i should trade for?

I know Teasers are a sucker bet but 49ers +3.5 and Over 41.5 on a 7 point teaser seems safe to me. 49ers should win if they loose, it will be by likely be by a field goal. Neither of these teams have much of a defense the score should go 42. Under 55.5 is also a good bet. The niners will score between 24 and 31. The Seahawks 21 and 27. I don't expect much punting

One play for this NFL weekend: Three team par with:  Eagles -9 (-105),  Panthers +6,  NYJ +2.5.  Risking 1 unit to win 6.15 units.  If I'm lucky enough to get to the Monday night game, I of course will be hedging.  Good luck to all going forward.

Almost got the trifecta in wins this past NFL weekend but I lose my 3 team 10 point Total play. It came down to  LV/DN  game going Under 45.5 and after 3 quarters there was a total of 30 points. I had 15 points to give and it looked reasonably favorable. Then the forth quarter started and gave up 22 points and I was sunk.  If I had the same circumstances same time and same  match-up,  I'd make the same play again. Stuff happens. On the good side of things,  I win another 5 team 14 pointer and way better,  I win my three team par with 1 unit being risked.  Hope all did well.  Air traveling this week,  so I might have some early plays to post for this weekend. 

The 49ers are hot ass trash without CMC. The cardinals Defense is better than anyone thinks. Brock Purdy got exposed to the tune of 2 INTs. Both dumb choices by him too. Sometimes taking a sack is better than throwing a pick. Let alone 2. Nobody is to blame for the SF loss except Fumblitis HB and Purdy "Bullets intercepted" the defense kept Kyler busy. And locked up MHJ. There's not much they could do though. 

The Jets shouldn't sniff the top ten. I was a cautiously optimistic fan going into this season, but only under the assumptions that we'd finally have a relatively injury-free season, Haason Reddick would be signed, the run defense would improve, and Rodgers wasn't washed and the offense would gel by this point. None of that has happened, and assuming any of it will looks like a bad bet at this point.

Also: The Jets are poorly coached. They're inconsistent and unfocused, and have given Rodgers too much influence over the offensive scheme. A team that gets the Broncos at home on ten days rest only to lay an egg shouldn't be in the top ten.

you want proof that justin jefferson is the MVP and not Sam Darnold look at some (not all) of the penalties called against the Jets dbs and compare that to the roughing the passer no call on Sam Darnold.  

Please Walt keep betting against my Broncos I love it!

Swiss Cheese undisciplined O-Line, and somehow taking Hunter is higher priority than actually keeping Maye alive in the backfield...

Thirty six (total) rushing yards for the Jets this week.  Even if your last name is  Manning,  Brady or even Rogers,  this is a  "No  Bueno" situation going forward.  Also three "picks" for Rogers in this game.    Again......."No  Bueno."

Getting a chance to post this week on my selections. Let me just say that after 4 weeks of the NFL this is where I generally stand:  All of my teaser plays (combined) I'm hitting at right around 70 percent.  Yes,  I know that "number" can not stay at that level, but I am still enjoying the ride while it lasts. To balance that out my constant 3 team pars so far are hitting about 20  percent. I do hedge every selection in my three team pars so the actual  OW! factor on these,  is somewhat diminished. Okay for this week: Three team par with: Lions -4 (last Monday) Winner,  Redskins -3 and closing with KC -5.5. Wagering 1 unit to win 6, with of course small straight hedges along the way. Three team 10 point teaser with:  BUFF/TX Over 37.5,  MIAMI/NE Under 46.5 and  LV/DV Under 45.5.  Finally a 5 team 14 point teaser with: TB +16.5 (last Thursday,) Winner,  Niners +6.5,  Pittsburgh +11.5,  Denver +11 and finally  Chiefs +8.5.  There we have it.  GLTA  today and Monday!!!

Houston Texans are Sharp vs. BUF

Thought you would've noticed. 

Even Cowherd can see it.  

Drafting Sanders overall #1 would be the Browniest thing ever.

All this talk about Washington not facing a top defense like the Browns....Browns are only ranked that high because they've played a week schedule. Browns opps in offensive EPA: 19th, 23rd, 22nd, and 27th. If they were the top defense everyone pretends they are, they'd be ranked top 3 in EPA vs these opponents (Dal, NYG, Jax, LV). Washington has played weak defenses but they've played good offenses so rank their defense higher. Their opps in offensive EPA are 9th, 22nd, 4th, and 10th.

What is the "no cookie" Jordan Love reference?  I tried to Google this and don't find anything.  Thanks.

this dude saw georgia alabama and was like yeah Beck is a top 3 pick. Has Falcons taking WR with EDGE1 on the table. This dude Walt never fails to make me crack up, what a clown

Not sure I agree with the assessment of Bucs run D...

"Bucs have one of the top run defenses in the NFL" - maybe last year, but they're giving up 5 ypc (tied for 27th) and have allowed 7 rushing TDs (only DAL & AZ are worse w 8)

"Vea returned last week and helped his team put the clamps on Saquon Barkley" - Barkley had 8.4 ypc (10 for 84). I get that he did have a long run to help the stats, but with Brown and Smith out its not like the D had to focus on the pass game.

With that said, I am teasing TB +7.5 but dont want to get complacent thinking TB will easily shutdown Robinson & Allgeier - GL

carson beck and quinn ewers are nothing special, and will be career backups, kind of like carson wentz types. on the other hand, shedeur sanders is a special talent, will be a C J stroud type QB in the NFL.

Walt..as someone that has seen every Bucs snap for the past 20 years, I think you have this one wrong.  I'm the first guy to say when the Bucs are overrated but I'm just not seeing it this year.  They've been decimated by injuries on defense (Kancey, Winfield, Vea) and haven't had their RT for the past three weeks and yet they've pulled off some big wins.  Mayfield looks great, Liam Cohen's offense is the real deal, and Bucky Irving is a difference maker.  If they can get fully healthy, they can play with any of the top teams in the league.  Time will tell but my gut tells me you've got them too low.

"They’re in the top 10 versus the rush despite missing multiple linebackers, so they should be able to handle Derrick Henry."

Just a bit outside...

You have Houston with 2 second round selections. They traded one of those to Buffalo as part of the Stefon Diggs trade.

EARLY GAME STUFF:

NO +2.5   I liked ATL -1.5, but the one-point bump in a game for which I have no solid feel has me spooked. The Saints have a battered O-line, but so do the Falcons. (Storm Norton vs. Carl Granderson could be a serious problem for ATL.) I could see one of those silly Taysom Hill-fueled Saints Ws here just as easily as a Younghoe Koo walk-off FG. Taking the points.

CIN -4.5   I'm wondering if the Bengals are broken and should be faded until we see evidence of the switch being flipped. I'm very tempted to get out ahead of that possibility here.

LAR +3   Coaching mismatch and another Kyren Williams smash spot.

GB -2.5   Jordan Love is an assassin vs. the blitz. I'm counting on negligible rust from Love, and for Sam Darnold to start showing signs of turning back into a pumpkin.

HOU -5.5   The Jags might come out with a little fire in their bellies and keep it close in the first half behind a healthy dose of Etienne, but HOU will eventually pull away with a 2nd half air show. There's also a strong possibility that JAX should simply be faded until Pederson is canned.

IND +2.5   Going contrarian here. In a bizarre turn of events, Fields finally commits a few TOs and Richardson finds moderate, efficient success behind some Jonathan Taylor chain-moving.

The PIT O-line is an underrated weakness. No Kwity Paye hurts IND, but I think Laiatu Latu steps up to menace Fields into a few mistakes.

PIT wins on a Boswell FG, but only by two. Then next week they'll destroy the Cowboys.

NYJ -8   I anticipate no letdown for the Jets here. They are well-rested and focused.

The Jets and new WR2 Mike Williams are owed some good karma. This is the season they get it. With Garrett Wilson erased by Pat Surtain, Williams steps up for a 2 TD day. Breece Hall rolls for 100+ and the defense confounds Bo Nix on the way to a workmanlike 27-13 W.

TB +1   As long as Vita Vea plays and isn't too compromised by that sprained knee, I like the home dog here.

Happy hunting, fellas.

@WFDevTeam 

I'm guessing they lose @DET Monday night. Just too many injuries along that defensive front 7 right now. But Week 5 at home vs. the Giants should be a get-right spot, and that will be the first of four home games in their next five going into their bye week, with a very winnable @ATL the only away game. SEA could easily be 7-2 going into their Week 10 bye.

Im with you on Hou for two reasons (aside from home field). #1 is Anderson & Hunter vs 2 horrible tackles and #2 is Jax is weak at CB and has the 2 worst rated safties in the league. With that said, Jags play a ton of man and CJ's numbers...

Man 53.7 completion & 90.7 Rating
Zone 67.2 & 104.1

I'm teasing a ton to 0.5

Hope Mixon can go - GL

Sanders at #1?  Really although the Brown's ownership is the worst, can even they be that stupid?  

And 4 Michigan players in the first Round?  From the crop of 6th place or lower finishers in this years BIG?  

Seriously...

@SadisticNobility 

Gotta disagree on Jones. He sucks. He can't complete a pass 20+ yards. He was just doing more check-down compiling last night, only without his usual handful of TOs. He never truly threatens the secondary.

Daniel Jones is suddenly appearing to be a very potent quarterback, thanks to Malik Nabers. I had a gut feeling that teams were making a mistake by passing on Nabers in the draft. Just imagine if the Chargers snagged him instead of Joe Alt.

@Mr. Bitter 

I'll be looking out for Seattle then

@Walt

You've gotta let the TEN dream die. It wouldn't matter if TEN had the '85 Bears defense; backing Will Levis will leave bettors wearing barrel-and-suspenders. 

TEN's defense isn't great. It's just okay. Now Chidobe Awuzie is out and Jeffery Simmons is questionable. Tyler Huntley is likely to start for MIA and I guaranfu*kintee you he outperforms Levis on the way to a watching-paint-dry MIA win.

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED  San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.

Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.

Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.

UNDERRATED  Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.

I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

gt;t;

@Mr. Football  

Love is blind.

The Cowboys are in trouble. The league-wide safety shell trend is making running the ball/stopping the run more important than we've seen in decades. DAL can do neither. Like, not at all.

I don't think it's fair to say that the Bucs were exposed vs. the Broncos. Coming off the big win vs. DET and with a big game vs. PHI ahead, Week 3 was a classic trap game. The Bucs were also rolling with a gutted defense.

Not saying the Bucs are SB contenders, but they're definitely capable of winning the NFC South. Mayfield is (somehow) the best QB in the division, the offense will improve as Goedeke gets healthy and Bucky Irving settles in at RB1, and the defense will be fine once Vea, Kancey, Winfield are healthy.

Walt: you can take this to the bank- the Giants is just the recovery medication the Cowboys need to bring them back to elite status.  The 60 million dollar man Dak Prescott will be teaming up with CD Lamb big time . Expect Lamb to get atleast 3 TD against the Giants poorly defense.  Also expect Daniel Jones to throw a pick six in this game- to extend the Cowboys win streak.  The Cowboys win big 45 the Midgets 10.

@SadisticNobility 

I'm not sure I've noticed the word mollywhopped before.  I hope it doesn't have some dirty meaning to it.

@biskit52250 

He has the Vikings at #4. Can't hate them that much.

@SadisticNobility he hates the vikings and will always have an excuse ready for them getting a win. Just the opposite for the 49ers because he will always have an excuse for their losses

It's just a guess but I'm guessing this guy is a 49ers or a Bengals fan because it never seems to matter if they lose or not because he'll always blame the loss on them being "sleepy" or "not prepared" and he always brings up their injuries and I'm pretty sure he hates the Vikings because every time they have win he will say it's because the other team wasn't good or wasn't ready to play a football game and he never ever brings up injuries to their roster. He doesn't give them any excuses ever. If this guy is 12 years old then I apologize. You keep up those power rankings little guy. Just make sure you have them done before bedtime and eat your vegetables. 

The Ravens aren't "bad". Yeah, they're experiencing some growing pains as the reconfigured O-line establishes continuity, but the Ravens under Harbaugh have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to such things. LT and C are solid, Mekari has always been serviceable when called upon, and new Gs Vorhees and Faalele have upside.

The current BAL O-line situation isn't any worse than those in the rest of the AFC North.

CINs mediocre O-line regularly gets Burrow hurt,

PITs O-line is suspect, with Broderick Jones looking like a bust and Fautanu out for the season.

CLE's O-line is a mess. Jedrick Wills sucks, Conklin will never be the same, and now Wyatt Teller and underrated swing OT James Hudson are injured.

TBF. Kyler had no help from the running game. Conner Sucks. And, he can't do everything himself. The defense was horrid vs the run, so there is that. Not Kylers fault this time. 

"Matt LaFleur has to be the early leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year..."

Well, he certainly looks young enough...

The Texans played a real team today, and they got mollywhopped. 

@griffin.gentry 

The other two pages updated to the newer version where the first page did not due to a scheduling mistake.  You were reading the first page of the previous version.  Thanks again for the heads up.  

@griffin.gentry 

This isn't on Charlie its on me.  Something went wrong with how my tool processed his mock.  Thanks for the heads up

Wow, Mykel Williams is good enough to go 6 AND 17. Shocking.

The Jets humiliated the Patriots tonight, and I don’t even care what the score says. New England had seven first downs mid-way into the forth quarter, and their defense was carved up. The game is nowhere near as close as the score suggests.

With a decent chance of rain in tonight s game,  I don't want to play this game straight.  So,  a 5 team 14 pointer with" Jets +8, four open.  GLTA  tonight.

Interested in y'alls scouting update on Walter Nolen. Both you and Charlie have moved him from top-10 to bottom of round 2. 

LMAO Shedeur Sanders ..... You cannot be serious.   Deion pay you to say this ?????

LFG this week...!!

Todd Bowles has given a clinic on how to beat the Lions. All of Dan Campbell's wild play calling can't mask the fact that Jerod Goff is a dink and dunk game manager with an average arm. 

You can't omit the Jets from any over rated list. How many talking heads have them going to the Superbowl? This after missing the playoffs for thirteen years! How about we win a wildcard game first?

@stuvian 

I'll have to look into this further when I get the chance.  I'll follow up tomorrow with my status

it doesn't seem like all the flex players are loaded into the fantasy content. There's no players in three figures of salary

Firstly: Eagles/Falcons game was pretty darn good,  albeit my loss at the end. I just have observed the way to frequent "brain farts" with head coaches in the last 2 minutes of very close ball games. It happened last night to the Eagles, when head coach Sirrani(?) in my opinion just screwed the goose and really helped the Falcons cause to ultimately win this ball game. Facing a third and 4,  up by three on the Falcons 8 yard line with 1:48 or so on the clock reason would dictate that he should have just  RAN  the ball into the line get the 1 or two yards and watch the clock run. If he would have done so the field goal is good after taking a 5 yard delay of game penalty and the Falcons and cousins are looking at somewhere around 60  SECONDS to go the distance. He doesn't do this and decides to pass for either the game ending first down or even better a touchdown.  The pass was dropped by Barkley and the Eagles coaching staff  GIFTED the Falcons with at least an extra 40 seconds.  IMO, seriously bad time management and seriously with all the timeouts going on,  Serrianni  had  TONS  of time to figure this this out.  Anyway,  GLTA  in week 3.

Think maybe Drake London just isn't that good.

Walt:

It's time to take the Cowboys off the overrated list- after the Cowboys will dominate the Ravens on this coming Sunday.  And the my reasoning is that after a week of receiving negative criticism from all the talking heads on the sports networks- and Jerry speaks during the week from his radio program. Expect the Cowboys to be focused and blow up the overrated Ravens. Expect Lamar to be under tremendous pressure all day long in front of the overzealous Cowboys fans. Cowboys 37 Ravens 14- take it to the bank!

This guys power rankings have always been comical. If a team he's high on loses he'll always say something like "if you take away this play and that play and they didn't have injuries and the ref wouldn't have screwed them they would have won so I'm just going to ignore the loss" but if a team wins he doesn't like he'll always say something like "they only won because the other team wasn't ready for a football game and the other team had injures and the refs helped them out so I'm going to ignore this win" and he NEVER talks about injures on the team he doesn't like. Mountains of excuses for the teams he's high on and zero excuses for the teams he doesn't like. Always good for a laugh. 

Another losing week for Walt on his picks and his units of play. I sure hope people don't bet there money using his picks he rarely wins.

The Titans are 0-2, yet they’ve outgained both of their opponents. That’s just crazy, and they’re still underrated.

First: GA bulldogs(-7.5) just killed me in stopping a 5 team 14 point win in college ball yesterday.  Argg.  NFL:  Three team par with: Balt -9,  KC -6.5 and will be taking the Texans but waiting to see if I can garnish a half point line on that game. Regardless, I will be on the Texans. Also a 5 team 14 pointer with:  Buff +16.5 (already won,) Dallas +7.5,  Chargers +9.5,  Patriots +17,  Eagles +7.5.  GLTA  today/tonight!!!

Walt -what is your go to website for the most up to date injury reports ?

@mike-gaughan 

Happy JK Dobbins owner here. I would make that move. I'm currently contemplating dropping Chuba Hubbard to pick up Gus Edwards from waivers as a premium handcuff. With Dobbins' injury history and Harbaugh's offensive philosophy, Edwards could bang out some week-winning numbers later on this season.