- Walt's Weekly NFL Picks | View on site → 323 comments 128 users
- 2026 NFL Mock Draft - by Walt | View on site → 70 comments 128 users
- Charlie's 2026 NFL Mock Draft | View on site → 42 comments 128 users
- Walt's NFL Power Rankings | View on site → 38 comments 128 users
- NFL Game Recaps: 2025 Playoffs | View on site → 25 comments 128 users
-
Mr. Bitter 116
-
WFDevTeam 44
-
Billl2021 36Top posts: NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2025 - Early Games (36)
-
Baird 34Top posts: NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2025 - Early Games (34)
-
iEatCrayons 26Top posts: NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2025 - Early Games (26)
-
42yardline 21
-
broncoselway 14
-
JRO60 13
-
j_oliver_23 11
-
Mr. Football 10
I think these teams are pretty evenly matched in terms of player talent and both coaches are talented as well but I'll go with the Patriots because I think their staff has the edge due to Vrabel and McDaniels experience.
Vrabel has been great at game management and handling a gauntlet of tough defenses this playoffs. The Seahawks, OTOH, have beaten up an injury riddled 49ers and nearly gave away the Rams game numerous times.
I’d rather the Ravens take P.Woods over K.Faulk.
While we're waiting until next week for Walter's SB picks, I guess I'll go first. I expect this will be a field goal game, so I'm a bit surprised Seattle is -5.
I'll take the Seahawks on the money line, and I'm leaning slightly on the game being under 45.5 points.
Many of this year's playoff games have been close, and I'm hoping that trend will continue. Good luck to you all, but most of all enjoy this game - we won't see another until September.
Excuse my English, LBLD
I can't comment in hiring and firing grade page... walter, you're fucking idiot... as ravens fan. He's just shitty motivational and CEO HC. When coordinators mess up so gawkbaugh(yes I insulted "greatest ravens HC" and fuck gawkbaugh lovers) blame them for didn't follow his gameplan when his gameplan is shit... gawkbaugh didn't think of anything for counter when Mike tomlin knew lamar jackson since he scouted lamar before draft 2018 which 3-7 for lamar... gawkbaugh trust lamar too much. And gawkbaugh is one who hired worst of all OL coaches in nfl history. Check warhop coach history... he got his own teams in 4th for division... even warhop helped texans got higher overall pick to draft QB CJ... you can research that if true or not... so how i view gawkbaugh as tier? Tier 3 or lower... if not for legendary D in 2008 then flacco will be bust and gawkbaugh will be firing in 2010 or 2011... before disagree with me... did lamar save his ass in 2018? He was about being firing... and why GM didn't firing him yet? Cause owner Steve is one who have power to decide, not GM so now GM EDC(nickname) have power to get new HC or firing since gawkbaugh is gone. When I saw Mike tomlin step down and stoolers hired new HC. I was like ??????????????????????????????
They didn't trust Tomlin! Tomlin is CEO but schemer which he can let his DC know about lamar weakness. So tomlin is gone, stoolers will NEVER sweep ravens AGAIN until lamar injured or leave or minter out of ravens
LAR at SEA really comes down to if you think LAR seeming drop in play is real...they peaked early...or not versus if you think SEA's strong finish was the sign of a team getting better, or just variance. I'm leaning on the LAR peaked early, SEA got better, side but can easily imagine being proven wrong here. Great matchup for sure.
Meanwhile, I think Stidham comes in and plays like its the Casino's money and the result is they win outright. Good luck to all. Stay within your means.
“Branch (5-10, 180) flashed with the Bulldogs in 2024 with 47 receptions for 503 yards and a touchdown. He was capable of producing more, but Georgia dealt with streaky quarterback play with Carson Beck.”
Branch was on USC in 2024
@DoctorJ
You will notice that Parent Comment Deleted always refers to Broncoselway. My guess is that if you don't agree with him he responds with inappropriate language that Walter deletes so that his website is not filled with profanity by idiots.
NFL Conference Championship Picks:
Take Seattle -2.5 over the Rams (tough choice)
Take New England -5.5 over Denver (easy choice)
Denver + 4-
Over Den 42-
La Rams +2-
Under La Rams 47-
@Mr. Bitter And I will guess that Minnesota ends up trading for Mac Jones. They still have a championship-level defense and they cannot possibly go into next season with McCarthy as the starter. Jones has some Darnold-esque qualities and would be taking on almost the exact same path that Darnold did. Yeah, they'll likely have to part with a 2nd/3rd Round pick (and maybe an additional later pick) to acquire him, but Adofo-Mensah has to be on the hot seat because they chose to not only draft McCarthy, but then chose not to make a serious offer for Darnold, and look where Seattle is now. If they don't make the playoffs next season, I believe he's going to get fired. As such, I don't think he stakes his job on hoping that Kyler Murray rebounds, not to mention that his cap hit would be a lot higher. Jones' isn't, which allows them to keep paying their defense and offensive skill positions.
As to where Murray winds up, I truly have no idea. Maybe the Steelers? I could see them in the Willis business too, and if that did happen, then maybe Murray would make some sense for the Jets. But I really do like the Mac Jones fit for Minnesota. Would just seem to fit the KOC system really well and because he's under contract cheaply he fits their roster structure of a win-now, highly paid defense. (And Justin Jefferson.)
Has anyone else noticed that when Broncoselway makes a comment he always gives himself a "thumbs up"? Check all of his comments.
That is such a Bush League move. He must be very insecure - don't you think?
@broncoselway
No one cares.
@Billl2021
Maybe that is where Walt is getting his picks!
@broncoselway
I just found out Pete Prisco is on the Broncos. He like Walt is 1-9 in the playoffs. Good luck on your ace!
Brother, outside of Tet McMillan look at who Bryce has to throw to. Now look at the Texans roster and get back to me.
@broncoselway
You probably haven't bet since 2014 when the Broncos got beat in the superbowl 43-8. I heard they are bringing Peyton back for this superbowl run!
Since most of us don't bet in-game, I wish you would separate the computations between in-game and pregame. It is disheartening to take a bath on your picks, only to have you say, "But I was awesome in-game!" When we take a bath, we want to think you are asking for the soap, as well. Long-time reader.
&l <
@broncoselway
It is at 5.5 WTH are you talking about? Broncos just won their Superbowl beating the Bills. (with refs help) The luck is about to run out with your team. Better get Uncle Rico in to save the day!
@broncoselway
Past season results mean nothing, Brady and Elway are long retired.
I'm hoping for another close playoff game - but I just don't see it. Stidham hasn't played in 2 years, and he has predominately been a career backup in the NFL. If he can hold Denver to just a 7 point loss it will be a big feather in his cap.
I believe it will be a 10-14 point NE victory. By the way, its now Monday night and the Patriots are favored by 5.5 points. Watch that spread continue to rise as the week goes on.
@42yardline
The Rams would have been my pick to win it all a few weeks ago. They aren't the same team that dominated the regular season.
@broncoselway
You better go get Uncle Rico to play QB for your Broncos.
@JRO60
Thanks for the heads up. It wasn't Charlie. Something went wrong with my process in pushing his latest version up. Its fixed now.
@42yardline
AJ Brown wouldn't be able to deal with being WR2 in NY. First things first: Our inevitable overpay for Malik Willis or trade for Mac Jones or Kyler Murray.
Saturday's Predictions
BUF +1
The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.
SEA -7
I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.
@Billl2021
Darnold basically said it isn't a big deal, but I've got my eye on the injury reports and for any indication that the sharps smell blood.
@broncoselway
Is everyone in Denver as ignorant as you? Calling the Bills a losing franchise and the Broncos winners is just pure, unadulterated gibberish.
Let's talk about FACTS:
Since 2018 the Bills have won 89 games while Denver has won 62. That's 67.4 % for the Bills and 46.6 % for the Broncos.
My friend, perhaps some day you will learn that FACTS tell the true story.
No commenrs on Darnold’s oblique or Collins’ concussion. An update would be nice.
Must be Walt’s day off.
@Mr. Bitter
Sound logic on your Saturday Divisional pcks, I agree. Also, your Jets have some money to spend and the need is there- should the Jets trade for A.J. Brown or do you think he would be reading too much Grisham and Baldacci while on the bench?
@WFDevTeam
RJ Harvey sure doesn't run mean. He runs tentatively and inefficiently. I don't think DEN will be able to fully take advantage of BUF's greatest weakness.
@WFDevTeam
SEA has been so consistent under MacDonald. I thought SEA -7 was on the nose for a bit, but then I figured that SEA beat SF by 10 in Frisco, and now SEA is rested and at home. Also: SEA gets back Cross, while SF loses Kittle. Unless Darnold implodes, I just see SEA giving SF a workmanlike beating.
@broncoselway
I get paranoid by made up stories in my head such as 'doesn't the league want Josh Allen to win this game?'
@Mr. Bitter
Walt's take away from the Broncos Packers game isn't the same as mine. At the beginning of that game I remember the Broncos getting into the Packers faces about something. They strike me as a 'mean' team. Its not my favorite look in sports but usually teams with a streak of mean to them fair well. Enough for me to not want to touch that game.
I do think SF is around because the Eagles offense self-destructed. SEA has shown they won't do that. The number looks on the money though. Wouldn't be surprised if SEA wins by 7 on the dot.
Josh Allen is a beast in the playoffs. Great playoff games so far this weekend. But Lawrence was no match for Allen (although it was a back and forth game). Lawrence at home threw 2 picks while Allen completed 80% with no picks.
Allen has said he wants to play for a very long time. I'm sure his future opponents don't want to hear that. Get him a couple of good receivers (or even one) and the Bills will be a major player for quite a few years to come.
Sorry Bills haters, but this is just the truth.
@Mr. Bitter
Good one, Bitter. You always have a timely comment.
@broncoselway
Jax killed your Broncos, and we just beat Jax. Do the math.
@broncoselway
Fortune cookies are wrong all the time.
my pick of the Divisional round:
10 degrees, 10-20 mph winds, Stafford's bad finger, Rams playing in weather they are not used to.
Under 48.5
@Billl2021
Just my view, but I see no value in factoring stats from previous seasons to make picks on what is going on this season. The past is the past.
Don't mean to knock you for picking Pitt over Hou in the Wildcard round, but Pitt's Monday night record of 38-10 over the years is not a valid reason to pick them - this year is this year.
@broncoselway
If anyone is going to do the smoking its the red-hot Josh Allen. Bo Nix vs, Allen - are you kidding me?? Walter said it best- Denver barely wins against weak opponents - he picked Buffalo for 8 units in this weekend's Divisional games.
I'll bet you the world famous Buffalo wings against whatever Denver is known for (unbreathable air) ?
Just one whiff ATS so far this weekend, and -of course - it was my lone money game. (Thanks, Eagles. Jesus.) I'm with Walt tonight and like PIT to win SU.
I know PIT should have lost to BAL. I know about Anderson and Hunter screaming off the EDGE. I know about Stingley and Lassiter at the boundaries. The thing is - and as Walt described - the PIT offense will be attacking the HOU LBs and safeties with quick shots to Gainwell and the TEs...and the HOU LBs and safeties can be had in coverage. (Especially To'oTo'o, a miserable coverage LB.)
I'm not sold on the Texans, and this is a spot (home dogs, MNF, getting disrespected a lil' bit-type game) where PIT traditionally cashes. Unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will drag HOU into a low-scoring brawl in which the Steelers and their formidable front seven will gain confidence by the minute. PIT by a Boswell FG.
PIT 20 HOU 17
@petermwb
Word is that Miami (FL) is trying to lure Ty Simpson back to college after losing out on Sam Leavitt.
its kind of a thin quarterback draft. it looks like one quarterback deep, with a lot of pretend type quarterbacks. here is the list.
1 fernando mendoza--this guy looks like the 2nd coming of peyton manning. a total stud with a great accurate arm. great player.
2 dante moore--was exposed vs indiana as a guy not ready for prime time. has the skill set, not a NFL starter yet, his draft stock should have dropped after the terrible game vs indiana, but the desperate jets, jets, jets will take him in round one.
3 ty simpson-nice arm, great athlete who is a very good runner. but not ready for prime time. be lost to indiana 38-3. three points will not cut it. needs another year of college football, but the dope already declared, will go in top 10 picks since the qb draft is so weak.
4 garrett nussmeier- this guy has a nice arm, not strong but is accurate. he is too small, not ready for NFL and injury prone. will be career back-up type.
5 john mateer--very good athlete but is primarily a running type quarterback. cannot make a living in the pocket, so he nfl career not too promising.
6 carson beck--this guy is a mutt, very below average athlete, and throws a lot of picks. whoever drafts this guy will regret the decision and wonder why they drafted him.
7 trinidad chambilss--not ready for prime time, too short at 6' 0". will just fade away in the pros, good college player, but not an nfl quarteback.
8 drew allar--a bust at the college level, so what are the chances he makes it in the NFL? answer, no chance, zero, a waste of a draft pick.
9 cade klubnik--a small guy, very average type player, career back-up at best.
&a
&am
Browns took themselves out of QB range, unless they're idiotic and use more picks to trade up.
Give Shedeur another year, with Watson as backup. Gabriel should not be on the roster next year.
Have Shedeur sit down with Deion in the offseason and rewatch his games multiple times, with Deion giving him analysis/feedback from a Hall of Fame DB's point of view.
Draft offensive line with the first 2 picks, even the first 3 picks. The tackles are beat up, Bitonio might retire, and Teller is gettting older.
It's impressive to see the Niners go as far as they have gone with the injuries they've endured. It's like a boat with several leaks still managing to win races.
Losing Kittle yesterday HURTS bad. No matter how far they go, it won't be the same without Kittle. Luckily he's got those Little Ceaser's ads.
For the Browns (01/12/25A) @6 no to Proctor. He's another lazy Alabama bust waiting to happen. Tate would be my pick here as he is available.
Then @24 A DE that will be available in the 3rd. World would be my pick.
@woo hoo
#1 reason not to take teams with with to much money on them. That game was controlled by the refs. Everytime Eagles would get going they were getting hit with a holding call. Then the PI late in the game was BS. Just my take.
Best Pick for Wildcard Weekend?
PHI -3, I got this earlier in week and pounded it. SF is beat up and got physically beaten last Sunday - down 2 more LBs and others - I mean is Purdy ok vicious last play hit. PHI basically had a week off and players coming back.
I do like LAR but -10 is much. I did bet FT/HalfTime LAR though with PHI ML.
@Mr. Bitter
Jacksonville gave that game away. They could have run the ball on the outside the whole game. They were picking up 8 yards a carry on the outside. Also after Allen was hurt they never pressured him. I would of put pressure on him every play. Oh well onto the next one.
@Mr. Bitter
I actually think in order the priority would be to get rid of
1. Hurts
2. AJ Brown
3. OC/HC
4. Barkley
@WFDevTeam
You know your team well.
@iEatCrayons
A.J. Brown for sure has gotta go.
I can't get over how lethargic PHI looked on offense at times.
@WFDevTeam
Damn Sorry about PHI here. I really think Hurts just got low football IQ and also coaches not helping him out. Time to clean house.
@broncoselway
a bit premature. 4 games to go. No matter what its a bit surprising both games went the way the betting public's way yesterday. Let's see how today goes.
@Billl2021
I get the splits and I don't trust the BUF defense at all. (Although news that Van Lanen is OUT may create more wiggle room for Rousseau and Bosa.) I just envision a healthy Allen and Cook going wild and simply outscoring JAX. Non-bet, though.
@Billl2021
Thanks. I figured the Bears would keep the 4th quarter magic going vs. GB. That ride is over, though. The Bears are going to get Saquan Barkleyed to death next weekend, especially with T.J Edwards OUT.
@Mr. Bitter
In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills' defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home).
@Mr. Bitter
Great job on both games yesterday. That Bears game was one for the ages!
@Mr. Bitter
McDermott is 0-5 in road playoff games. And home teams are 10-3 in wildcard playoffs the past year.
@woo hoo
Coen was a great hire. But this is his first playoff game, and I can't shake the feeling that the Jags peaked too early - and against a cupcake stretch of schedule.
I love the young, foundational pieces along the JAX front seven, but Allen/Cook present a challenge unlike JAX has seen.
This is not to say I'm confident that the Bills will win. It's all predicated on Allen being healthy, and that's not a given. I also don't like a BUF defense that may need to put an extra man in the box just to help their weak LBs vs. Etienne, which would open up the JAX passing game. Hell, I don't even like that JAX has such a pronounced advantage at kicker.
All I know is this: If healthy, Allen could easily put the Bills on his back. The Bills went over 26.5 points in all three of their playoff games last year, and have done so in 7 of their last 9 playoff games. The Jags haven't had to worry about a QB that can put up those kinda points for an eternity.
@woo hoo
I kinda have agree here. Not saying Jax Run D isn't good but there a good Risk/Reward on Cook on this game. Jax hasn't faced good QB/RB combo since the bye, atleast nothing close to Allen/Cook. They played bad QBs (as Mr.Bitter noted) and then blew out bad teams, that is a big contribution to their leading Run D.
Tough betting today... but do think Cook will Cook.
Cook +80 RushYds, +105 Combo Yards, +18.5 attempts
(Also got Barkley +80 RushYds)
I think the Bears game is a trap. I don't get why the Bears aren't favored. Or that the line hasn't moved to favor them. There are games with lines that feel obvious to me and then in retrospect felt like a trap. Something is up here.
I with Walt on the Rams. That line makes sense. Wouldn't surprise me if it ends up a push at 10. But I think the Rams make a statement they should be the favorites to win it this year. Not the Seahawks.
@mcklbrown_1
point taken. I may even do something about it over the next week.
@Mr. Bitter
Regarding CHI, I have similar view about CHI RUN. The weird thing is CHI finished in TOP 5 in 2025 for rushing attempts... past 3 games bottom 4, and also factoring Ben Johnson style, their OL, WR injuries, etc. CHI seem to move away from their run game. I dunno...
I feel CHI will (hope) Run today and win.
My Bets today
CHI ML
LAR HT/FT + CHI +6.5
Puka +89.5 Yds
<
Saturday Predictions
I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.
CAR +10.5
We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.
All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy.
Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense.
LAR 31 CAR 24
CHI +1.5
Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.
Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.
Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.
CHI 24 GB 21<
;
m>
&
@Mr. Bitter - Great write-up
I teased Jags on the opening +1.5 line to get +7.5 and that felt like a gift. Now that the Bears are +1.5 in a windy home game I feel the same way. Anything can happen but teasing CHI +7.5 is a big money play for me. GL
@Billl2021
Hmmm. Allen's foot?
I'm not sold on the Bills or anything, but Allen is beast in the playoffs when healthy. And I like BUF's O-line/running game better than JAX's. My point with my original post about JAX was that their level of competition since their bye may have as much to do with their winning streak as Jakobi Meyers and Cole Van Lanen. Talk that they'll come out of the AFC seems a bit much, especially with all the drops at WR and Brian Thomas Jr. still MIA.
@Mr. Bitter
Money is coming in on the Jags. They have moved to -1.5 now
@Mr. Bitter
Jags are a solid home team and the Bills struggle on the road. Plus Bills OC Joe Bradley has been talking to teams about head coaching positions. I remember Ben Johson doing the same last year during the playoffs and the Lions got embarrased.
@WFDevTeam
Speaking of trends...C.J Stroud in the cold and PIT's MNF record are more reason to think the Steelers might win SU. Trends are flimsy, but unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will only gain confidence as long as the game is close.
Arthur Smith has Rodgers getting rid of the ball and out to the RBs and TEs so quickly that it might mitigate the damage Anderson/Hunter can do.
The AFC is wide open and there needs to be a feel-good, playoff narrative...why not old man Rodgers making one last playoff run?
@DoctorJ
I can't see Rodgers having a good day and Houston's defense has the swagger of a defense that can carry a team to the Super Bowl. But the Steelers are a team I'm wary of. They are consistently inconsistent. Will lose when it seems they shouldn't. Will win when it seem they shouldn't. I'm talking not just this year. Now they haven't made it past the first round since 2017...but like all trends...does that mean they are due to win one? I'm leaving that one alone.
@DoctorJ
PIT's D-line is pretty good, too. They're just behind HOU in D-line WAR and are the only team with 4 players in PFF's top 30 pressure rankings. HOU's Anderson/Hunter are the best EDGE duo in the NFL, but Watt/Highsmith are up there, too. EDGE3 Herbig would start for some teams, Heyward is playing out of his mind right now and Harmon is coming on. I agree that the HOU DL will be a problem for PIT, but I could see the PIT front - finally healthy -dominating HOU's O-line. Could easily be a low-scoring slop-fest...a game script the Steelers love.
@iEatCrayons
As I'm an Eagles fan I almost never would choose their game as the one I like the most. I do like in Walt's analysis how he notes the 49ers offense may be overrated based on what it can do against weaker defense. Defense is a place where its easy to underrate its impact. Good to be on the side that has the edge there.
I feel best about the Jags. A team on the rise against what feels like a known commodity. But seems like the public is already aware of this.
For the record I don't gamble. I participate in the FadeBackContset and am content simply making predictions and seeing how I do. The league has so many unpredictable results some of which only seem to make sense when you look at the line. Some of which are injuries in the game type stuff that there is no way to account for it. On top of the players having good games and bad games.
The Rams game feels good to me. I now the spread is big but I can't see LA easing up here unless they get up by 20 and even then I could see stafford doing enough to keep Carolina out of reach
@Qb1frink
The mocks get more accurate as the draft gets closer and more information becomes available. Walt and Charlie will hone in as fast as other experts do as it does.
Media at large is a tough business. Think how many sites have come and gone over 20 years. The Pittsburgh Gazette is shuttering from what I saw. Many of the websites that are nicer are smaller parts of larger companies. Not a word of content Walt or Charlie produces is made exclusive behind a paywall. We do offer all this content available here ad-free, and on out subdomain ad-free for $8 a month. And we're not thriving but more treading water here.
@WFDevTeam
I hear you... i fully agree that PHI offense is bad but my opinion they will (slightly) turn it up - Hurts/Barkley running more on a backup LB team.
Now for SF - williams and pearsall not practicing. Is Kittle fully healthy? Is Purdy? Yikes. Remember PHI held Buf@Home for 12 pts.. Buf scored an AVG of 31.6 in last 5 games outside of vs PHI.
@WFDevTeam --- if this isn't your best bet for weekend, what is your best bet? Curious...
Flu is apparently making its way through the NE locker room.
Any Super Bowl predictions?
@WFDevTeam
PHI's problems are nothing the return of Lane Johnson can't cure. (PHI 18-28 in games Johnson hasn't played.)
I'm with IEatCrayons - PHI is rested and should TCB. With the loss of Tatum Bethune, the 'Niners are down to practice-squadders Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow at LB. The injury-ravaged SF front seven will be dominated by the PHI O-line.
The Chargers had more interceptions than passing TDs allowed yet their CBs are weak?
Second team all pro CB, two great second year ones, decent safety unit.
Interior OL is the need.
@42yardline
That's not boring Walt has been doing it all season and he is up. I can't see past the 33 -10 record Steelers have on Monday nights. Best of luck!
@WFDevTeam
Nice Call here.. didn't give enough credit to PIT.
1. That poor BAL K, damn that is rough.
2. Glad CAR got in, that ATL-CAR game was one of the worst officiated game I ever saw. I gotta think back but it was terrible
@WFDevTeam
The Darnell Washington injury is big. His blocking was crucial to the run game and the passing offense was leaning on him more by the week. But who knows...maybe Freiermuth emerges from exile with a big game.
BAL by a FG feels exactly right, but I worry about Lamar. We keep waiting for the Lamar we all know to show up and it hasn't happened all year. Non-bet for me.
@iEatCrayons
That seems to be the consensus. Its a shame I have a bias for aging QBs. I think I'm going to take the points for my FadeBackPick selection but its a case where I clearly know why I'll be wrong if I end up on the wrong side.
@WFDevTeam
I've had BAL since early week at -3, even at -3.5 I take BAL maybe buy the Pts.
PIT offense is ugly w/o DK (and Wash). They need a run game but BAL Run D is good lately and can stack box vs PIT. Added to BAL Run is so much easier to rely on.
AFC North games are always kinda weird, even though I think BAL has a sizeable advantage game can be close so tempered my betting here, although I did bet -6.5 BAL for a few.
Best Player Incentives Week 18 to Play
Justin Jefferson: 53 receiving yards for 1,000
Dawson Knox: $100K with 6 receptions, $100K with 1 TD
Hunter Henry: $250K with 5 receptions
Stefon Diggs: $500K with 30 yards, another $500K with 130 yards, $500K with 8 catches
I did bet JJ (+66 RecY and Henry (+5/+46 Recs/RecY).
I'll probably also bet ATTD Dawson, and Diggs 60Yrds later today.
Alex Wright has played well and will be the other DE across from Myles Garrett. Evidently Walt does not watch or read anything about the Browns. They may even have JOK back next year, which would be a great LB core with Schwesinger.
Browns need OL, OL, OL, .... and a WR.
NO/ATL
With the Falcons coming off a short week and a big, turnover-aided win, I agree that the Saints are the right side. My concern: Without Olave, how are the Saints going to score?
With Saints interior defenders Bresee and Shepherd trending OUT, there's a good chance Bijan and Allgeier will eat well. Who will the Saints lean on to keep up? Juwan Johnson? ATL is 3rd-best vs. tight ends. The ghost of Taysom Hill? Audric Estime? Practice-squadder who could be running into stacked boxes. I like Shough and he should perform well with OROY within reach, but expecting guys like Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis to rise to the occasion feels like a reach.
Side note: Bijan and other Falcons are talking about how they'd like to knock the Bucs out of the playoffs. Could ATL be more motivated than we think?
@Karensman
I also got this as a Top 3 pick this week. I feel like DET OL been toughing it out for the last couple of games and will just sit/barely play. If Amon sits that's a bonus + Burden full practice, moved this into my top 3
Top Picks
CHI -3
CAR +3
BAL -3
First of all : Happy New Year's everybody ! Hopefully we can all have a healthy, productive, and enjoyable year in 2026. I confess to being a huge 'homer' for the Chicago Bears. I was delighted last year when they drafted Caleb Williams with the number 1 pick only to see them completely fall apart with the most inept coaching in the NFL. Segue to this year with a top notch coach and it has been a pleasure to watch their games this year. I'm assuming that Johnson figured out that his young, talented QB needed a big physical offensive line and he addressed that in free agency. The Bears played Detroit in Week 2 in a game that saw Detroit healthy and the Bears still working to get their veteran O-Line into a solid unit. The Bears were also coming off a devastating 4th quarter collapse against the Vikings and were on a short week. Not surprisingly the Lions demolished the Bears 52-21. I won't say that the Lions deliberately ran up the score on the Bears, but they didn't take their foot off the accelerator and Campbell's post game comments weren't very flattering about the Bears and his ex-coordinator Ben Johnson. After the game I made the decision that I would only bet the Bears 1 time this year [ didn't want to jinx them ! ] and it would be the last game of the year against the Lions. We have seen the Lions collapse this year [ injuries as well as coaching decisions ] especially down the stretch and do not have anything to play for. In the meantime, the Bears have been consistently good all season [ although the defense has not been good ]. Before the line came out, I expected the Bears to be favored by at least 7 1/2 and was prepared to bet them at that line. The Bears at either 2 1/2 or 3 is my best bet of the year. Why:
1] Even a blind person can see a 'revenge angle' to this game.
2] I won't say the Bears weren't trying to win against the 49ers but the defense called no blitzes against the Niners, and the only trick/gimmick play was the 'hook and Ladder' on the next to last play.
3] What exactly does the Lions have to play for ? This is a solid veteran team that was a Super Bowl contender that can no longer make the playoffs. I'm guessing they are more focused on next week's tee times then giving maximum effort in a useless game.
4] I suggest that if anyone has any doubts, look at Goff's record against the Bears at Soldier Field in late season weather. He is more efficient indoors. Go all the way back to when he was with the Rams on their Super Bowl team that lost to the Bears in December at Soldier field by a score of 15-6.
5] The Lions completely s--t the bed against the Vikings last week when they still had a shot at the playoffs and they have really faltered down the stretch. Why will they suddenly play their best game of the year ?
gt;
"The Giants don’t have much at receiver outside of Malik Nabers"
Respectfully, Wan'Dale Robinson was a top 12 receiver for 2025. He outperformed a dozen receivers ranked higher.
Rams vs Falcons does affect seeding. If the Rams win their final two games against the Falcons and Cardinals, they will secure the No. 5 seed. Losing to the Falcons but beating Arizona could drop them to the No. 6 seed if the 49ers beat the Seahawks.
For people losing their minds over the DEI hire comment, Miles admitted it. DYOR
Besides, it was hilarious.
And, Sage Steele was a DEI fire. No room for non-libs at that company.
Even though I won like 75% of my picks, I barely won cause too heavy on Half/Full Jax. Oh well... that is gambling life.
I did cash out my LAR as they might now be motivated.
Win vs NFC South (Likely - still depends on other games)
Lose Vs PHI. (Likely - still depends on other games)
I think they are resting, but ATL is out nevertheless too. Unsure how to bet this game but leaning that LAR doesn't cover -7.5
@dave_2 Because she herself even admitted it.
Soo many whiney trolls. The person is entitled to their opinion.
Go find another site to cry on
@iEatCrayons
I'll skip that game then. Thanks
@iEatCrayons
JAX O-line is banged up. I dunno...I can see the Colts keeping it close.
@Mr. Bitter
Tetairoa set to play so you seem good but I laid off this game (for now)
I cashed out my PIT Parley/Teasers as too many on offense is out.
For CIN, I did Half/Full instead of the -7 spread.
Damn, Jax is now -4.5... something funny happening in vegas.
@iEatCrayons
Nice call. I forgot about Perryman. GL on JAX/IND. Eat up those Josh Downs props.
@WFDevTeam
Yeah, there's a reason Vegas stays in business. Luckily, I had no interest in betting HOU/LAC. Post-Xmas funds, tight lines and all the backup QBs have me taking it easy this week.
Only large play is CAR +7, but apparently Tet McMillan woke up with the flu and is now questionable, so that may be a no-go. Some cabbage on CIN -7.5. All logic says CIN scores at will, but I can't shake the feeling Trey McBride gets three TDs and ARI finds the back door. My fantasy league team is in the championship with Burrow, Chase Brown and Chase starting, so I'm going all in on the Bengals. Small play on TEN as home dogs, too.
Sniffed around PIT -3 (win-and-in), but I think it's priced perfectly and can see CLE relishing the spoiler role. Garrett may go nuclear, while PIT is very banged up and without Metcalf. I don't like that CLE offense without Judkins though.
Henry really got me last night oh well, i was afraid of that but my gambling urge got the best of me. Nevertheless, Willis 40+ yds was a bigger bet, so not all bad.
Sharps on IND - now +5. Damn I really thought it would go the other way. I'm thinking Rivers, Taylor doesn't play a full game esp if down a lot / unsuccessful in 1st half. I didn't increase my already heavy JAX bets but did add
Taylor under 19.5 carries, under 75.5 yds, under 14.5 long rush
Rivers under 206.5 yds
@Mr. Bitter
Well, read that one wrong. I was having a couple good weeks but back to reality. NFL games be hard to predict.
Best Bets for BAL vs GB (In order)
Willis +32 Yrds -- I think this is easy. 40+ IMOP
GB-2.5 - Not sure, but I've seen GB with willis its smart, tight, calculated. BAL with Hundley has to be coached and managed but Henry does scare me if he gets going but I think he is over the hill. Overall, GB plays a smart game and wins.. I feel the GB WRs is gonna sneak a long play here and there.
Damn Hubert is a beast... seriously. He's a top 3 QB. Lucky my bet survived, the run game (and Penalty) came through enough at the end.
As a bonus, IND now is eliminated. Hmm tank? I seriously bet too much on JAX vs IND. Good luck to me.
@WFDevTeam
I got HOU on this one but lightly... main thing 2 things for me is
1. Perryman out and el Woody runs consistently enough to move the chains.
2. Herbert got 4 games of 4+ Sacks (4,5,6,7) and Stroud zero. Also, Herbert 12 INT vs Stroud 6 INT. Both played about the same # of games.
In a Defensive game, these are gonna be the difference, pts off TOs - Hou can Run better to mostly avoid these higher risk situations.
I got
Hou ML
Hou +6 with 2-3 teasers (like Jax, Cin)
Marks 50+ Yds
@WFDevTeam
I'm thinking the same. A lot is being said about Anderson/Hunter vs. that banged-up LAC O-line. More should be said about Mack/Tuipulotu vs. that banged-up HOU O-line.
HOU's showing vs. the Raiders scares me. The Texans can be had vs. the run. If Ashton Jeanty can run all over HOU, so should Omarion Hampton. LAC 20 HOU 17
@iEatCrayons
Yeah, I'm probably overthinking this. The Jags are in a lather. Think I'm still reeling from the wallet-draining bet I made on SEA/IND, where I assumed Rivers would lay an egg. That loss was more about me underestimating the flat spot for SEA than anything Rivers did though.
It's looking like the Colts could be without Raimann along with Bortolini. This might be the week Rivers gives us the turnover/sack fest I anticipated vs. SEA. Rivers will need to get it out quick, so I expect Josh Downs to have a productive day in the slot. (Garbage time/no Jourdan Lewis)
JAX vs IND. Same story as last week with SF. JAX will score and IND can't keep up esp with a much better JAX D. Plus, Rivers is gonna feel wore down week after week (+ short week) and IND D is overrated not that most think it's good but public does know how it's bottom 5 D now.
Since I didn't like many other games, I probably overbet this one... but did have some on CIN-7, PIT -3, LAR -6
@WFDevTeam
Rivers has like ten kids. He obviously prefers life on hard mode.
@Mr. Bitter
I hear you about IND BD injuries, not insignificant but overall younger DBs (Jones) can do well. Key is JAG D even without Lewis is much better (much) than SF D missing 3-4 stars with like 0 pass rush. They are last in Sacks (18) the 2nd last place has (25 Sacks) 38% more sacks.
Admit Rivers played very well but I think that is a 1 off. 1st half crazy stats. 2nd H back to normal 58 QB rating.
Add IND D is terrible (Buckner also out now - but Sauce back hmmm), JAG #1 Run D. Win by less than TD. Sign me up - multiple times.
@iEatCrayons
Was sniffing around JAX, but the injuries in their secondary have me hesitant. Rivers has been more competent than I anticipated.
CIN feels like a clean play. There's always a chance Brissett/McBride go nuclear and we see a full-on shoot-out including the back door, but ARI's depth chart is just so decimated. The Cardinals may have already checked out.
@iEatCrayons
CAR +7.5
Just such a lousy spot for SEA coming off that fluky W vs. LAR and the Niners on deck Week 18. Last time SEA played LAR, they only beat TEN by 6 the following week. CAR may be overrated and inconsistent, but they're better than the Titans. (Wins vs. LAR, GB, TB.) I feel like 5.5 - 6 should be the number here.
CAR is 9-4 ATS as home dogs under Canales, and 4-2 SU their last six at home. CAR is no great shakes defensively, but they match up well w/SEA, as CAR is 1st in the NFL vs. play action and 1st in play action yards allowed. SEA's passing game is predicated on play action (#1 in the NFL). Jaycee Horn - while inconsistent - is capable of keeping JS-N relatively under control.
Bryce Young has been inconsistent, but has stepped up in difficult matchups this season, especially late-game. He has 10 TDs to 2 INTs over his last 5 contests, and has an 8:1 TD-to-INT rate, 102.5 passer rating and 5-0 record vs. teams with top-10 pressure ratings this season.
SEA 24 CAR 20
Finally, Sheila needs to prove she’s a real owner and not a rubber stamp like her father was, and demand accountability for this regression. I wouldn’t mind one iota if she cleaned house after next week’s inevitable defeat.
@iEatCrayons
Can you believe Walt lost 3 units on this trap game. LOL
Also, J.Taylor 104.5 yds? Damn that seems 20 yards too high with Rivers, box is stacked. Under all the way.
Good luck to all.
Hi Walt,
Long time lurker, have been a part time Debacled member since the site problem, and probably 17 of your 22 years.
After Saturday, you were up 1980 units. 6 of that was ATS. (BTW, I locked in at -1.5 Thurs), but I digress.
I look at your prop bets and live bets after the fact, I would love to see a similar recap of your thought process for +3 wins and losses. You absolutley nailed Saturday, and yet you ended up 11 on ATS (+5 more) and yet ended +6. Would love to see commentary?
@Billl2021
I'm staying far away from this game. Not touching this at all. Was just noting the line movement in like 10 days.
This game was available for betting like month(s) in advance. These KC fans yikes.
@iEatCrayons
Be careful with that chiefs game. Broncos have to play the Chargers for home field the following week. If the Chargers beat the Texans. Sounds trappy, maybe throw in a teaser with Jags.
@Billl2021
Admittedly, Rivers played much much better then I would of imagined. I didn't think a 44 year old, poor mobility with weak arm could have so much success vs SF DB. No Pass Rush is one thing, Rivers barely needed to move. Although, Rivers + WR quickness surprised me, in the end as I thought IND needed a "perfect game" to cover.
That being said I bet before the MNF game - JAX vs IND. Took the Half/Full on JAX. I'm betting on 44 year old hurting after not playing for 5 years - on shorter week + JAX will actually make him run/throw.
Note: That KC/DEN game was -4.5 for KC 2 weeks ago, -5.5 DEN 1 hr before Sunday kickoff. Now -13 DEN. wow.
@iEatCrayons
Good call on 49ers and Taylor. It is always hard to go against line movement, but I figured Rivers already had his magical day against the Hawks.
TEN +3
The Raiders are destined to bat leadoff in the '26 NFL Draft, meaning both the Giants and Titans will win one of their remaining games. NYG will beat LV next week, while TEN will beat KC straight up today.
I know that TEN sucks, but KC is staggered right now. The O-line is in tatters, they have no running game, and the only viable passing targets for Minshew are (bust?) Xavier Worthy and the ghost of Travis Kelce. Key injuries are peppered along the KC defensive depth chart. TEN 20 KC 17
Judkins under 66.5 Yds - 2 OL out, Sanders no Pass threat + Bills best DB back, +10 spread/script. I just don't see it.
Titans +7 teaser w many. KC favored on RD? 1-5 this year + Injuries + Minshew + Tank?. TEN 0-7 at home that is why +7
CIN -2.5 teaser w many. Burrows+Chase,Higgins,Brown vs MIA Ewers yikes. Archane can maybe blow this up but I am from Texas, he is scared under pressure. Yeah CIN D isn't great but underrated IMO - 3,4,3 Sacks last 3 weeks.
Many Teasers with SD+6.5, DET -3, IND under 24.5
@Billl2021
Yeah, thought I had LAR ML in the bag. Nevertheless, even though SEA might win division, any rematch - i still see LAR as a much stronger team.
At least my LAR over and LAR teasers are in play.
LAR over 20.5
LAR ML
Also, Teased LAR +3 wCHI +7, PHI ML, Chargers +4 combos
LAR on a heater, Scored 41,45,28,34,21,42,34,35 last 8 weeks but yes no DA has some impact.
Have doubts about SEA D played Rivers, Cousins, Max Bro, Ward. + No best OL Cross, No Run Game, Darnold+LAR pass rush + Suck at being pressured + Windy/Rain day.
Sharps pushing this to SEA -2 today. I must be missing something - Maybe the delayed LAR flight has impact?
Tell me what am I missing.
@iEatCrayons
Sick backdoor win but at least the +1.5 betters got paid. I don;t think Sam saw ghosts last night. He is turning into the real deal.
Wow, I would be so mad with EDC if he passed on Bain at that point in the Draft.
Bain can play the outside and kick inside as a Raven. He has the power to set edge, gets ton of pressures, if he weren’t held so much he’d have another 5+ sacks.
madubuike we’re still awaiting an update on if the neck injury is a career ender.
@Mr. Bitter
That is old Sam. New Sam has a damn good record the last 2 years between Minnesota and Seattle
@iEatCrayons
The line opened Rams -1.5. There was big money put on Seattle to move that line 3 points. That is why it is called gambling!
@Billl2021
Note:
SEA 13-11 in home games last 3 years
We can also pick and choose outliners stats,
Matt -- try to find out how many games of the 330 games he started which he only threw 130 Yards... it's less then that # of 4 INT games for SD
Should be a good game though.... Honestly, Im more of a Seattle fan, I just don't know how this is -2 for SEA. I think LAR wins 6-12 pts. That is why I am asking what does vegas see that I don't. I probably will lose this knowing this.
@iEatCrayons
I'm with you. Rams are the right side, even with Adams OUT. (For what it's worth, Adams only had 1 catch for one yard last time these teams met.)
SEA cannot establish the run. Cross is OUT. Darnold falls apart under pressure, while Stafford is gunning for MVP. The only hope for SEA is a completely dominant defensive performance.
@Billl2021
The thing is, Sam never shows up in big games.
@iEatCrayons
You are missing the 12th man! That place is going to get crazy if the Rams don't keep them quiet by controlling the game. Plus Sam threw four picks in the 1st game and only lost by 2.
"The most accurate mock draft site in the world"
Gotta be joking. This is by far the worst most inaccurate mock draft in the world. Consistently ranking near last in predictions. No wonder no legit press will hire this guy even as a DEI hire.
Fav plays:
BAL/CIN U51.5
CHI -7.5 Proper Sanders implosion incoming. Thuney/Dalman/Jackson will do work against a CLE interior D struggling without Collins, and Graham hurting. Another big game from the CHI RBs.
JAX -12 "We quit" game from the battered Jets, while Jax is getting into a lather. Blowout.
BUF -1 Josh Allen - looking to make his MVP case - in a snow game. Revenge for BUF as Bosa and Rosseau take turns on Vederian Lowe.
DET +6 Just a hunch that this is a FG game. DET's battered secondary is concerning, but we've seen their backups step up before. Goff indoors and Gibbs on a rug allow Lions to keep up.
SEA -13.5 Betting that Indy's Philip Rivers Hail Mary is a disaster from the jump. Four TOs from Rivers sounds about right.
@Baird
I'm going heavy on SEA. For me, it's all about fading Rivers. I'm not gonna wait to see how he fares when all logic points toward a disaster right from the jump. Gonna get out ahead of it. If I'm wrong on Rivers, then so be it. But I don't think I will be.
SEA definitely has one eye toward the Rams, so I'd lay off if Riley Leonard was starting. At least he's functional and can do some things with his wheels. Rivers is just a sitting duck vs. that swarming SEA front seven. I'm with Walt - to expect anything but disaster for Rivers is fairy tale land.
Not too worried about Taylor vs. an elite SEA run D that recently folded Jarran Reed back into the mix. Taylor has faded since Indy's problems at QB began anyway.
For what it's worth, SEA is 10-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in games I deemed "flat" spots. MacDonald has them playing consistent ball. That said, I'm on the Rams -1 on TNF. LA has SEA's number.
@Mr. Bitter - I hope youre right. I went against myself and threw down bigger than I wanted on SEA -7 (6.5 teasers + ML parlays).
I cant get past INDs O-line+Taylor and the big TNF game SEA has. I'm over thinking it.
I agree that Mina Kimes isn't a great evaluator of the QB position but the fact you bring her up week after week anytime you evaluate the Raiders (even when Geno is injured and not starting lol) screams that she lives in your head rent free.
Constantly bringing up the DEI thing also just makes it sounds like your more bothered that she's a Asian woman covering football than her actual analysis and takes. Quit yapping about other media ppl that get more attention than you and focus on football lil bro.
@Baird
I feel confident that SEA will blow out IND. Rivers is starting, which is comically desperate. Coming out of a five-year retirement, he gets to face the best D in the NFL in a potential monsoon and without RT Braden Smith. There may be so many IND turnovers, SEA may cover even if not fully focused. I just have visions of that SEA D running fumbles and INTs into the EZ throughout the game.
@DoctorJ
Counterpoint: 1 to 3 inches of snow and 21 mph winds in the forecast. Josh Allen is reliably beastly in snow games.
@42yardline
I'm w you on the Jags game. They're one of my top plays on teasers this week, but I'm skeptical on Seattle.
Dont get me wrong, I'm going to hit a few 6.5 teasers w SEA, Jags, PIT, NYG, etc... All the games that the extra 1/2 point make sense. I dont know if its the flooding in Seattle or the LARs game on TNF for the div lead but I'm sure we're not going to see a 100% effort from the Seahawks.
If they go up by 2 scores late in the 4th do they pull players for the real game on Thurs?
They're playing a non-conference opponent with no QB - how jacked are they going to be? Buckner may be back, but I cant get past the fact that Ward just went on IR and Sauce prob wont play. JSN should shine... BUT in the rain?
I'm going to tread lightly on SEA (6.5 teasers and ML parlays) - GL
2-game teasers...
LAR -2.5 + TB -2.5 (5U to win 4U)
+ Jags +7.5 (5U)
+ Cin +11.5 (5U)
+ Bal - (5U)
LAR -2.5 + Hou +9.5 3.75U to win 3U
+ Sea -1.0 2.5U to win 2U
+ Den -1.5 2.5U to win 2U
*I mixed the above for 6-game teasers & added in week 15...
Ten @ SF: SF -6.5
GB @ Den: Den +7.5
BUF @ NE: BUF +7.5
I hit ML parlays on the heavy favs and mixed in...
Chase Brown (CIN) 32+ Rush Yards
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) 20+ Rush Yards
Blake Corum (LAR) 14+ Rush Yards
Tyler Warren (IND) 43+ Rec Yards
De'Von Achane (MIA) 21+ Rec Yards
GL all
@Billl2021
Maybe lol. But it'll be difficult for Mahomes without 3/5 of his O-line there to keep Hunter and Anderson off his ass.
@Mr. Bitter
So Chiefs it is?
The Patriots and Packers would both easily beat KC at this point, yet they're both ranked lower for some reason. I personally have KC ranked 17th, which may still be too high!
@WFDevTeam
Interesting. Thanks.
@Mr. Bitter
He had a Hot Press about it here. Scouts have been disappointed
@dave_2
I think it was a quote by her saying Geno Smith was a top 10 QB
The Niners are some lucky sumbitches out there. We win despite struggling to pass, often struggling to run, and our OL can't stop a pack of Girl Scots from charging.
Detroit's need pass rusher more than anything! Frank Ragnow is back (29) Tate Ruttledge 2nd RD pk last year is doing great for a rookie. And they need more depth at corner. In that order
ARI +2.5 Like the home dog here. JAX is down some cornerstone players for this one and their O-line is abysmal.
CLE +3.5 Rock bottom game for the Raiders. Sanders isn't an NFL QB, but I'm guessing a healthy dose of Judkins and CLE's pronounced advantage in the trenches will be enough to hide him vs. the horrid Raiders. CLE SU. Myles Garrett gets 3+ sacks and Geno Smith commits more TOs than Sanders.
ATL +2 Wouldn't touch this game. Just taking the points.
DAL +3.5 Love the good vibes/shaky vibes dynamic here, along with divisional rivalry/must-win for DAL angles. Prescott is dialed in and the Cowboys can score with anybody, while I love the defensive facelift on the fly with Clowney, Williams and Wilson, along w/the return of Hooker and Overshown. I anticipate a legit Wild Card push for DAL. Cowboys by an Aubrey FG.
Early Games:
PIT +3 CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU.
BAL -13.5 Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.
DET -13.5 Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.
NE -7.5 Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.
TEN +12.5 Coming off the Rams and with Darnold revenge game vs. MIN on the horizon, I don't like this spot for SEA. TEN D controls the SEA run game while Ward kills clock w/short stuff to TEs and RBs vs. SEA's backup LBs. Titans lose but keep it close.
MIN +6.5 Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.
IND +3.5 The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.
Late games coming. Leaning DAL to beat PHI SU.
Happy hunting fellas.
@dave_2
His bitterness. Mina is an award winning journalist and an established sports journalist. His comment reeks of resentment and jealousy and that's being kind. What a clown.
@Mr. Bitter
Packers are 1-5 ATS this season against teams with losing records.
Prop builder...
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 2+ Receptions
Tyjae Spears (TEN) 18+ Rushing Yards
Kimani Vidal (LAC) 58+ Rushing Yards
Kyle Monangai (CHI) 55+ Rushing Yards
Kyle Monangai (CHI) 15+ Carries
Treveyon Henderson (NE) 36+ Rushing Yards
ML Win: LAR (NOS @ LAR)
ML Win: DET (MIN @ DET)
ML Win: LAC (LAC @ TEN)
ML Win: GB (CAR @ GB)
100.00 / 725.00
This has to be click bait.
KC ranked #4 … get serious.
denver ranked 11, easily coukd be 11-0 and beat yiur #1 ranked Eagles on the road.
get serious
Panthers should be ahead of Atlanta. They beat them twice!
No, it's past time.
It’s passed time for some editing. Why would the Raiders take Garret Nussmeier in tbe second round because the 49ers need a QB..?
Other errors are peppered throughout the movk as well; it kinda chips away at how serious to take the player grades and choices.
@Billl2021
"I feel it is more they play down to their competition"
Bingo.
With their inconsistency and injuries quietly piling up on offense, GB is giving me FADE vibes for the next two weeks. ("Easy" game @ NYG followed by vs. MIN in a game where the Vikings could be in must-win mode.)
NE -13 Walt handicapped this one pretty thoroughly, and I'm going big on the Pats. Now that the Jets have dinged their draft positioning with that predictable, fluky win vs. CLE, they'll get their asses handed to them by NE. Without Garrett Wilson, this isn't a fair fight. But will NE be focused? In Vrabel I trust.
Expect another huge game from TreVeyon Henderson vs. NY's saloon-door D-line. Henderson is perfectly situated for a dominant three-game run vs. NYJ, CIN and NYG.
"Matt Milano will snap out of his funk at some point"
Sure about that? He's 31 and terminally injured.
@42yardline
Giants fans are spoiled rotten compared to us Jets fans. Our only comfort is watching SB III on Youtube.
I'm interested to see how the Giants play for Kafka. I've always liked him as an assistant. Maybe NY has stumbled upon a decent HC.
I am not a NYG fan (thank God), but their decision makers clearly don't have a clue. Dabell lasted an eternity, three and a half years, compared to his 3 predecessors. Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmer, and Joe Judge all lasted only 2 years or less.
I think we can all agree that this is no way to run an NFL francise. Not being familiar with the Giants situation, I can only assume that the Mara family gave final approval to all of the hirings above.
They should hire a highly qualified and successfully proven football executive to become their President to correct the mess that the Mara family has created. Only then will there be a glimmer of hope for the future of the franchise,
@Baird
The "Patriots haven't beaten anybody" angle felt too mainstream for me. They were yacking about it on ESPN. Vrabel probably put it up on the billboard.
But you're right - nine times out of ten the Bucs are the right side. That's why I didn't touch NE even though I could see them winning. I had a hunch Henderson would erupt. (Just a hunch, even in the face of the TB run D.) Thankfully, I put him in my fantasy lineup (Chase Brown-BYE) after he'd been languishing on my bench all season.
@Bitter - good call on NE
My faith in TB was them getting healthier and bringing the #4 YPC run D... then Henderson went for 147 & 2 tds. Cant count on that every weekend.
My main thesis was the schedule... last 4 NE beat NO, TEN, CLE & ATL (not impressive, but still 4 straight wins in public eye) + TNF vs div opp next + TB coming off a bye.
I always appreciate your feedback, but give me that setup again and I'll gladly put $ on it.
@Baird
I see what you are saying. I feel it is more they play down to their competition. We will see against the Giants this week. Giants are decimated by injuries and you can't trust Wilson at QB. That being said most teams play harder for a new coach, and that line opened at 8.5 so their is already money coming in on the Giants
@Billl2021 - clear as mud no?
After rereading I see the confusion...
DET 2.2 YPC = loss vs GB
WAS 3 YPC = loss vs GB
CLE 5.2 = win
CAR 5.2 = win
My thought process was/is it doesnt matter if your team sucks (CLE/CAR) or has stud RBs (DET) if you can run the ball vs GB then you'll prob win. Obviously, Barkley's 2.7 tonight says different.
@Baird
Where are you going with this?
@Baird
Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.
You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.
I got worked last weekend. It happens.
Week 1 & 2 2024 were worse, but I havent lost that much in over a year.
I looked back on why Det got killed at home in a div game vs a semi rook QB, but Goff does fold to pressure so bravo BF D.
Ind vs Pit? idk - good on ya for 6 turnovers. Just do that every week and you'll win the SB. KC? Again, idk. I teased KC +4 in a big game = should've been money, but I get it... Buf 5-0 in last 5 reg season vs KC and KC 4-0 vs Buf in last playoff games.
Look ahead leans...
LVR @ Den = Tucker Props
Parker Washington props
AZ @ SEA - AZ coming off a big win. I've been high on Brissett, but now that mighty mouse is on IR I think the pressure builds. No run O is tough in Seattle.
NE @ TB - I want to love TB assuming health comes their way. NE has MIA on TNF so TB is the obvious play off a bye. Non-conf helps too.
PIT @ LAC - under
Bal @ Min - teasing Min +10
*Min 4 @ home? Something is off with this one. I had BAL winning 6 of 7 after the bye and this was their loss in my mind. But Min @ home teased to +10 = ARE YOU KIDDING?
Ok, Min big div win vs Det + Bal, div & @div next. Sandwich AFC in between 3 div games is a big deal. I'm worried BF plays a weak D in a nothing game... Dont play a weak D vs Lamar and Henry!
I want to love CLE w NJ getting rid of their good players, but this has that "everyone show up" feel for NJ. I teased CLE +3.5 a bit , but I'm being cautious.
Lastly, as a Rams fan I love them, but my bookie hasnt posted the line.
GL all
ATL +6 Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE.
CAR -5.5 No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR.
I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes.
CHI -4.5 I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win.
HOU +1 This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light.
BUF -9.5 Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game.
NYJ +2 Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do.
BAL -4 Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't.
@Mr. Bitter - as you say "weekend of the backup RB". I think I found something w/ GB...
Montgomery 11-25-2.3
Gibbs 9-19-2.1
GB WIN
Ekeler 6-17-2.1
Daniels 7-17-2.4
Cros-Mer 4-17-4.2
WIN
Judkins 18-94-1 GB LOSS
Brown 9-42-0
Perine 6-16-2.7
WIN
Dowdle 25-130-2 GB LOSS
@Baird
This is shaping up to be the weekend of the backup RB.
@Baird - IND @ pit
6'2" 200+ Jaylon Jones has been activated. Edwards & Blackmon have been weak outside corners. I'm guessing this is to cover Metcalf.
I like Ind even more
Ind @ Pit: lets quickly look at PIT's schedule...
Wk1 - Beat NYJ by 2, but they were losing by 15 and had to score 17 in the 4th to win. Should have lost to Jets!
Wk2 - Worked by Sea
Wk3 - NE beat themselves w turnovers (a few in the endzone/redzone). PIT should have lost
2-1 at this point but could easily be 0-3
Wk4 - Won vs Min in Spain (Wentz went for 350 & 2tds)
Wk5 - Won vs Gabriel in his 1st start
Wk6 - Lost to Flacco Bengals (342-3)
Wk7 - Lost (beat up by) GB @ home on SNF
PIT COULD EASILY BE 2-5 w/ wins vs Wentz in Spain and Gabriel's 1st start.
*In all fairness, Ind plays in Germany next and then a bye. Das German game is vs the non-conference Falcons. I think PIT is a bigger deal regarding playoff seeding.
I'm breaking down the games and can make points for/against most of the close ones. I dont like old trends because of how much the game changed, but recent trends in the right context have meaning. For example... Min is 1-9 vs Det in the last 10 games and the Det home dynamic shows a few double digit wins. Also, Det has won the last 5 in a row vs Min... and now Min is starting a green QB who's been hurt more than he's played. Branch is back, its a div game and Det will be rocking. I dont see how Min wins.
Buf should have lost to Bal wk1 & had to score 22 in the 4th to win by 1. They went on to beat NYJ, Mia, Saints & Car.
Bills have Dolphins next; KC going into bye.
*Big men Jones & Oliver out = I like KC
@Baird
Drake London OUT. I'm on MIA.
ATL -7 NON-BET I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.
ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover.
CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.
A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.
BUF -7 NON-BET I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.
CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.
For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.
SF +2.5 LIKE This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate?
CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)
@Karensman
I remember when this comment section was a gold mine of old head degenerate gamblers offering up angles aplenty. Not sure why they all bailed, but I would like to see that happen again. Lately it seems like it's me and Baird doing all the heavy lifting, with a few others only jumping in after the fact and piling on when I whiff. (Which happens often because that's the nature of this beast.) Any thoughts or angles you have are appreciated.
The metrics hate the Steelers tonight. Offensive and defensive EPA, success rate, EDP yards per play...it all comfortably favors the Packers. Individual matchups lean Packers too; Parsons vs PIT's OTs (3rd-lowest pass-blocking grade) with Rodgers only QB28 under pressure, Jordan Love top-3 in comp % between the numbers, vs. man coverage, and vs. the blitz (basically custom-built to dissect the PIT defensive scheme), etc.
But then there's Tomlin's 21-7-3 record as a home dog, which is hard to ignore - but I will. Probably somewhat foolishly, I've leaned less and less into trends over the years, preferring to focus on matchups, injuries, etc. The way I look at it, it's like "big deal - now Tomlin will be 21-8-3". GB is also 0-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. Now they'll be 1-4. I like GB. I also like CIN, so cue the media's unrealistic "Flacco will lead the Bengals past the Steelers and into the playoffs" narrative.
@Baird
You've convinced me. That 'Niners defensive depth chart is looking pretty grim. Like the Lions, SF wears their ability to overcome injuries like a badge of honor - a factor I feel sometimes isn't fully baked into the line for SF and DET - but there comes a point where the hits are too much to overcome. If HOU's offense can't get right in this one...
McCaffrey's ballin out and Kittle is back to block so SF looks good. Plus Saleh has that young D amp'd up - well at least vs ATL on the road in a letdown game. Penix looked pretty lost outdoors under the bright lights. To top it all off Nico & Kirk are out + Hou's run game is crap so how will they score? SF must be the side...
And then I looked at Hou's D - the front 4 is one of the best, front 7 legit and Lassiter + Pitre lock up the left side. Surprisingly, the only weakness is Stingley. Bourne seems like the only option outside of McCaffrey, but Hou brings #5 run D in terms of YPC @ 3.8 so he may not lay it down like he did vs a Diablo less D.
Hou @ home - lost to a healthy TB team by 1 point and beat Ten 26-0 (not legit; should have been 6-6 at half, but still 26-0). This is only their 3rd home game and I feel like Higgins and Noel show up vs #111 out of #112 CB Stout & Green 42.8 coverage. Lets not forget Schultz 9-10-98 last week.
***The clincher is Huff and Gross-Matos out***
I LOVE teasing the UNDER: 47.5 is so key in a real game, but I dont see this as a real game w/ NFC SF coming off a primetime blowout to play a stuggling AFC team. Neither team hits 20 pts.
GL all
@Baird
Yeah, just a hunch on MIA/ATL, and Cousins starting doesn't change anything. I feel like MIA keeps it close in this one, then gets thoroughly demolished by BAL in Week 9. I envision Achane and Bijan taking turns blasting off, and Waddle is way overdue for some numbers, assuming MIA is smart enough to work him in the slot and away from A.J. Terrell.
I might change my mind on CHI/BAL. The Bears are down to practice squad CBs. My main concerns are that Lamar isn't fully healthy, and that CHI has the weapons to keep up if the game becomes a race to 35, which is quite possible.
@Mr. Bitter - good to see you're off CLE.
I like NE for the same reason I hit CLE last week... of the 4 sides I like their D vs Gabriel the best. Judkins has been carrying the team but not vs NE @ home (#3 run D @ 3.3 YPC). I like NE to win in a low scorer like 20-10, although it could get ugly and end up 27-3.
Teasing NE -1 is the play
@Mr. Bitter - I was going to hit Vegas tomorrow morning and go big on on teasers featuring ATL -1.5, but Im backing off. I have a gut feeling MIA makes it a game. Other than Diablo out, I really dont know why I have a bad feeling - especially since this is MIA's 2nd road game and they have BAL next on TNF. Bijan should ball out. IDK - I'm listening to whatever's giving me pause.
Good to see your seeing the same thing
I'm w you on Buf/Car too. I'm still going to hit small teasers on both sides, but feel like CAR has a small chance to win outright.
@Billl2021
Your take was logical, but Dan Campbell's ability to overcome a rash of injuries is something that may need to be baked into handicapping the Lions going forward. Every coach uses the "next man up" cliche, but they take it seriously in Detroit. They did it last season, and now they're doing it with the secondary this season. It's nuts.
@Walt. No concern here? The whole Lions secondary is gone and no worries because they are group A?
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Buccaneers will have Mike Evans and Lavonte David, and there’s a chance Emeka Egbuka will play. The Lions, meanwhile, won’t have their top three cornerbacks and their two safeties. Despite this, the sharps have bet the Lions up from -5.5 to -6.
@Baird
The CIN victory over PIT definitely felt like a springboard game. Maybe even kept Hendrickson in Cincy. I don't anticipate Flacco keeping it up and saving CIN's season, but there's no reason why they shouldn't TCB vs. my Jets. The Jets are a hot mess, and Tyrod Taylor might be playing hurt if he starts.
I know it's early, but Aaron Glenn already has a good coordinator/bad head coach vibe.
@Baird
Yeah, I don't anticipate a look ahead for BUF. Not when they're looking up at the Pats in the AFC East. Also - betting Dalton over Allen coming off a bye seems insane.
That 20+ TD stat for Allen is crazy. Guess that's why Gabe Davis is back in the fold lol.
Feels like CB2 has been a problem spot for BUF forever. Curious to see how Hairston looks once he's activated.
What's your take on Milano these days? I think Walt may be overstating his impact, as the injuries are piling up and age is creeping in. It's starting to feel like a Sean Lee-type situation where injuries caught up all at once and he was terminally QUESTIONABLE until having to hang em up.
It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.
The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.
I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.
CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13
@Mr. Bitter - Good call last week.
I agree on CAR's upswing and bet them to beat NY. I was ready to bet CAR win total under after they beat NJJ but now Im holding off. I like Dalton better than Young and CAR's D has been playing decent (JC Horn's 2 picks were both amazing) so I'm NOT betting the under win total... yet
With that said, Walt is on Milano being out to mess with BUF's run D but Ed Oliver was a big part as well.
Something not mentioned... Larry Ogunjobi is coming back after a 6-game PED suspension. That should help to cycle players vs run. If Hubbard was still out I'd like Dowdle to carry them, BUT this game means too much to a Bills team coming off a BYE and succeeding the div lead to NE.
I'm teasing BUF a little thinking they get close to 30 pts. I still like home field (3-0), Dalton & Dowdle so I'm treading lightly.
Side note: I just saw a graphic of Josh Allen 20+ yard passing TDs...
2020-23 = 27
2024-25 = 1
Shaq Thompson revenge game lol
McMillan vs White favors Panthers (White has been a big liability this year). I also like McMillan to get his 1st game over 100 yards. Count it!
@scaredmoney - I agree completely. Flacco hitting Chase for like 14-16 passes? + Higgins getting the game clinching pass must be a wake up call for every Bengals player... "hey, we have a chance"
I think they all get up & give 100% this week with their win over div rival/leader PIT last week & a new found hope. The home field crowd should help.
I'm teasing Cin -0.5 a bunch
@Wesley C - not bad
Brett Favre (lost to the Packers with the Vikings), Kurt Warner (lost to the Giants and Rams with the Cardinals), and Peyton Manning (lost to the Colts with the Broncos)
Walt, always be happy with what you have. You had a winning week so no complaining about what could have been. Good luck this week!
I have waited 5 years to see these results ! Thanks
chiefs, browns, patriots, eagles, panthers, giants!
all winners ATS!
Great job today
It’s passed time for some editing. Why would the Raiders take Garret Nussmeier in tbe second round because the 49ers need a QB..?
Other errors are peppered throughout the movk as well; it kinda chips away at how serious to take the player grades and choices.
@JRO60 - I tried to do a few simple searches looking back 10 years but some obvious issues emerge with algorithms...
bye week in between 3 road games - count?
international "home" game which is really a road game - count?
I guess I could grab all the games over 10 years, narrow columns to simple home vs away and highlight 3 away in a row. Take those and make a pivot table for W/L result on 3rd game. Maybe tomorrow, too hazy tonight.
AI and computers are inherently stupid and require exact specifics which makes it difficult to analyze. Maybe Walt or someone here knows a better way?
FWIW... The last NFL team to win three consecutive road games was the Detroit Lions in the 2024 season
Prop builder...
Mason Taylor 31+
KC win only
NE win only
Chig 21+
Judkins 77+
Jacory 49+
Addison 3+ rec
Bijan 58+
Allgeier 12+
.8 to win 6.2U
Add Kelce 3+ rec
.4 to win 3.8U
If Cleveland is picking 3rd and they take yet another dlineman I think I will lose it.
1st pick: Qb
2nd pick: OL/WR
3rd pick: WR/OL (whichever not chosen 2nd)
@SadisticNobility
Assuming the Ravens get Lamar Jackson and a handful of other key players back from injury following their bye, they're set up for a run that might put them on PIT's tail. BAL might come out of their post-bye CHI, MIA, MIN, CLE, NYJ, CIN, PIT, CIN schedule run 7-7 and in contention.
LAR W Puka 12-5
w/o Puka 2-4
Look ahead...
My main look ahead is CAR. They surprised ATL in the home opener, beat the amazing Dolphins and ran over Dallas' tough run D. Ok, I'm being a smartass but they have the junky Jets coming up and if they win their 1st road game then all the talking heads are going to be praising them @ 4-3... And then the schedule gets real. I'm all for playing the win total under if they beat NYJ.
CAR < win total IF they beat NYJ and things get inflated (even if slightly inflated)
Side note... I just heard Rattler get questioned and explain why he was benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. Maybe he brings a little extra this week because of that? But CHI just played on the road in the rain so they'll be ready at home in the rain; NOleans wont. IDK
PHI vs MIN = no thanks
Finally, I cant wait to watch WAS@DAL (hopefully everyone plays). TB@DET is enticing (Campbell said Alim McNeil "is friggin playin"! Thats awesome! Cant wait! Um, but who on the backend is playing? Also, what TB players are going to suit up? Too many question marks at this time.)
Walt - it sounds like your backing off of prop bets or at least saying "if it wasn't for them...". I think there are some layup props this week so stick w it, but why not add teasers? You used to do 2-gamers and hit - why quit? This week seems tough spread-wise, but teasers look good...
KC -12 to -6 I agree this could easily be a 10-11 pt win and possible backdoor cover, but KC is hitting their stride, feeling confident and playing at home in a div game. They stop the run well which gives LVR limited scoring options. KC will get a big lead and let off. Rice back should be good practice and less than a TD seems $. Aside from Maxx, whats scary from LVR? Answer = not Jeanty or Geno
IND +1.5 to +7.5 Over a TD with the great playing Colts in a conference game = YES. I root for the SD Chargers, but c'mon LA isn't blowing out a stacked Ind team.
Other options...
Cle +3.5 I really like your simple breakdown of 4 pieces and CLE's D is by far the best. I think Judkins and Fannin have good games as well as the obv CLE D. As log as Gabriel doesn't blow it, I dont see MIA playing well in the elements vs that D.
ATL +8 SF getting offensive pieces back AND playing at home is scary. ATL came off bye to play a prime time home game and showed up = OBV LETDOWN (plus dome to road). But, Warner out is the final domino on SF's D. ATL should be able to control TOP and keep it close w MVP Bijan & that O-line vs Huff only.
NYG@DEN tease - pick a side. I like DEN to win, but either side is appealing... NYG +13 OR DEN -1
Just remember, NYG switched to Dart (huge get up) & beat LAC on a letdown in NJ. They went on the road in a natural letdown & lost to the winless Saints - lost to the winless Saints. They came back to NJ and beat div rival/SB champ PHI on a short week. See the trend? This is a natural travel away from home letdown spot for NYG with PHI up next. Nix has been junk but if the D can limit the run then Dart will have too much on his shoulders (Bonito leads league in sacks). Wandale has been great, but McMillan is #3 in slot and we arent even bringing up Surtain. I like Tim Patrick Troy Franklin to have a weird stat line... 3-120-2.
Side note - why isnt Lil Jordan on any NYG depth chart? He's the biggest threat.
And Xavier Chaplin is having hearing issues, Hue Freeze said Monday "We've done some testing on (Chaplin's) hearing, and there's an issue there, That goes back to us, we should've handled the cadence stuff differently for him, but he really struggles to hear in those environments, and we'll make adjustments for that,"
6 penalties in 2 games, 8 quarterback pressures, 5 quarterback hurries and 2 sacks, he wont go in round one, with that kind of tape.
Chaplin continues to have issues with false starts, which some are blaming on a hearing disorder. Sounds like a guard at best and not going to the Texans.
So if you’re so sick and tired of the international games, why post?
see my previous post for motivation by the big chalk.
First, the Packers were sleepwalking. Do you really think the pack is going to get up to face an abysmal team like the bungles.
@chuckster Looking into it now
"RECAP: I personally don’t care if Murray misses this game. If anything, it gives us more points to work with by selecting the Cardinals."
"THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray missed Wednesday’s practice, causing the spread to move to -7. It sounds like Jacoby Brissett may start this game. I think I’d switch to the Colts if Brissett were to be named the starter."
Why didn't you care about Brissett starting on Tuesday, but do now?
Dearest CHALK King WC,
You do realize that ALL of your picks in Week 6 with UNITS are all phuckeen CHALK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WEAK yet again dude. WHY have you gravitated to a PURE CHALK player????
I dont think any logical bettor is considering week 1 or 2 even in their strength evaluation in 2025.
The Chiefs might just be bad. The Jags definitely are not good. 4-1 so be it, but they played the reverse Ravens schedule minus the injuries. Luckily for them their division is a weird ass incest dumpster fire and they might actually win it.
@Walt
You're going to grow old waiting for Matt Milano to play at 100%. Might be washed.
@Walt
Joe Flacco just beat the Packers a few weeks ago. Now he is going to face them with Higgins and Chase. Im going Bengals ML
@Mr. Bitter
Clevelands coaches cost them that game. Way to conservative when they had the lead
@Bitter - I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it
Thats the kind of thing I need to hear cause I dont watch college. Flores > Gabriel should be an easy decision, but Wentz doesnt instill confidence vs Cle's D.
I got 0.5U on a 6-game w/ Min+2.5 just cause Walt sees something - GL
Browns need O-linemen, like Mauigoa. Their O-line is either old (Bitonio, Teller) or beaten to an injured pulp (everyone else)
They do not need a first round WR. Between all their 2 TE formations and receiving RBs, and a borderline first round WR talent they just got for free (Bond)
Mina Kimes DEI hirecomment is unfair.
Do not get caught up in the moment this fervor will pass and a lot of people will look foolish.
@Baird
If the Ravens were playing a team with a functional passing game, I wouldn't touch them given all the injuries in the secondary. But HOU hasn't been able to throw the ball for a while.
I still believe the Ravens are an elite team that will round into form as they get healthier, so I wanna get out ahead of it. BAL could really get into a lather Weeks 8 through 14 (lotta cupcakes) and I'm gonna bet a small wager that tomorrow's game will be an early springboard into that. Kinda my contrarian pick of the week.
@Mr. Bitter - "why are you out on HOU/BAL?"
Henry has owned the Texans so there's that angle, but Lamar, Roquan, Awuzie, Madubiuke & Humphrey out w banged up Stanley, Oweh is too hard to cap. Yes, this is do or die for Bal, they are at home and have owned Hou in the past, but I cant calculate all the variables.
@Baird
Kyle Shanahan has to be frontrunner for NFL Coach of the Year, but the Rams are better than the 'Niners and should have won that game.
"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"
McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.
@Baird
MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen.
One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial.
@Mr. Bitter
That game was hard to watch. The 1st quarter QB sneak while Rams d-line talks about what they are doing after the game & quick passing TD to Tonges wide open in red zone. Fumble, drop, fumble, missed extra point, missed FG - jeez
I hate to lose money, but gladly stand by my 5.75U + 5.75U Rams bets. They should have covered -2.5
@Baird
Out of curiosity, why are you out on HOU/BAL? I've been sniffing around BAL as the media is currently driving nails into their coffin. I have a hunch that - even with the horrifying injury list - Harbaugh will rally the remaining troops, lean on Derrick Henry (HOU susceptible vs. the run) and find a way to cover/maybe win. My biggest concern with BAL is the season-ending injury to Madubuike, but if the rest of the team gets healthy and DeCosta swings a trade for a high-quality DT (Jeffery Simmons?), I still like BAL in the AFC North.
I did well last week on PHI ML, NE & Den teasers plus the obvious Sea, Ind +9.5, Jags 9.5, Hou -1 & Chi/LVR over. I lost w Bal failing to show up (12.75 ML loss) and the GB tie (I had -0.5). I lost 4U on GB, but they closed teasers & opportunity cost was 27U- ouch! It happens.
I hit the look ahead line last week for a small 1U...
2-game 1U = LAR +3 & Ind 0 (wish I went bigger)
I still like that bet w updated line and will go bigger tomorrow AM.
I plan on teasing...
LAR -1 + Ind -1: 5.75 to win 4.6U
*OMG, Ind just dropped 1/2 point - what am I missing? Stokes hurt, Jeanty trucked a JV squad = wont happen this week. Ind coming off loss + @home & no look ahead. Can LVR win this game or is Vegas giving back after destroying the public? I DONT GET IT - should be 8.5+
LAR -1 + Buf -2: was going to hit same 5.75 but I like NE +14 now so will mix both
*NE +14, will have to check Buf KR & PR D. NE has been killing it on returns.
Ind -1 + Buf -2: 5.75 to win 4.6U, but may go lower &/or add NE a little
Looking to add Det -4 in a 6-game and maybe pair w all 3 above in 2-game teasers for 1.25U each
I want to like...
TB +9.5
NO +4.5 (fade NYG in dome w letdown)
**If you have doubts, just know winless NO is favored over the team that beat LAC - C'mon man
NYJ +8.5 - NM, I do like NYJ. This is Dal letdown + a Hall/Fields rumblin, bumblin, stumblin game
Was +9
I dislike...
Den @ Phi
Ten @ Ari
Hou @ Bal
RB props should be good this week... Hall, Montgomery & Achane overs
Trying to find the right KC/Jags play and will mix that a bit. GL all!
P.S. @ Bitter... TB @ Sea is supposed to be uniform game of the century :) GL brotha
@Baird
I appreciate the fine tooth comb treatment for CLE/MIN. Non-bet for me, as I don't trust Wentz, yet wonder how long the CLE defense will be happy with doing the heavy lifting while the offense stagnates around a revolving door of bad QBs. (As a pretty dedicated draftnik, I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it.) We've seen even the best of defenses eventually tap out in such situations.
I wouldn't count on the Cam Robinson angle. Washed journeyman who should only be shoring up practice squads.
1. CLE vs MIN - I'd be careful assuming the body clock is the reason Min wins. I appreciate you dialing it back with a 2-game sample, but I specifically remember the Buf/Jags game because I made money both weeks. Buf played a huge home game vs div rival Mia and crushed them. That was when Mia was good and Buf put 100% into showing up at home. Conversely, they took some hits and I recall a big loss with DaQuan Jones being out, a starting LB getting ko'd and CB issues. I bet Jacksonville as a fade of the Buf letdown & injuries - not body clock. I DONT think the body clock applies this week; however, Flores vs rookie QB looks like money AND I checked out the stadium to see if its grass or turf... "underlying synthetic turf field for NFL games" - how is this not a Min home game? Def favors them unless the refs are biased towards Cle. I dont watch college so I have no clue what Gabriel brings, but Bucky Brooks said... "quick release, can beat you w arm or legs but doesnt have a strong arm". Ok, dink and dunk small ball and let D do the heavy lifting. Either way - I'll join in NOT watching, but will add a small tease for whatever you're seeing. With that said, I'm scared of Judkins, 007 WR & 2 TE sets. Besides, Cam Robinson is shoring up LT and Wentz just lost to the mediocre Steelers.
2. "On the plus side, they’re accumulating some major air mile points so maybe they’ll get a free vacation" - thanks for the laugh. Very well written.
@Baird
Doug Williams vs. Jim Zorn!
Dear Walter,
I've been a loyal paying follower for many years. What attracted me to your services was your ability to pick UNDERDOGS. You have strayed from that practice for the most part over the years and are LOSING your ASS! ANYONE can pick CHALK. My advice is to dig in like you used to and pick some DAWGS........God bless and good luck, Edge
@ Walt
It amazes me that you thought the team that just got beat by the browns, was going to smoke the Cowboys!
LOVE
DET -10 To control Myles Garrett, Sewell and Decker is about the best OT duo you could ask for, and even the best of defenses eventually tap out when there's no support from the offense. CLE's win vs. GB will be a blip on the radar of another lost season that will result in the (unfair) firing of Stefanski.
For DET, Morton's offense is in a lather, while the defense should be able to contain Judkins. I just don't see an "on switch" for the CLE attack in this spot. Aidan Hutchinson vs. a CLE 3rd-string RT called "KT Leveston" and LT Cornelius Lucas reeks of a game-wrecking situation. I anticipate double-digit DET wins vs. CLE and Week 5 vs. CIN.
MIN -2.5 Vibes are good in MIN. Prepare for louder "should Wentz remain the starter" chatter following this one. This is what Kevin O'Connell does, and the Steelers have been far more lucky than good this season.
I'm concerned that D.K. Metcalf may be able to light up MIN's suspect secondary, but given that Aaron Rodgers was 30th in QBR and 33rd in YPA vs. the blitz in '24, I doubt the Flores defense will allow the immobile Rodgers the time to locate Metcalf.
*I want to love NE, but they have div rival BUF next. I still think they show up at home and CAR brings less. Dont get me wrong 5.5 spread is scary for a slouch offense, but I tease so...
This is that sneaky game we're looking for.
Ok, in Vrabel I trust. Gonzalez should be back vs McMillan. When I first saw the line I was confused, now I understand. NE also brings the #2 run D w 2.8 YPC.
Wk1 - Jeanty 19-38-2.0
Wk2 - Achane 11-30-2.7
Wk3 - Warren 18-47-2.6
I just found my play this week aside from Den. GL all
Walter! What is the deal with all of the Lions sarcasm? I still think, after the Baltimore win, this season will be a struggle and that there is still a good chance they miss the playoffs.
But are you realiy hearing from the national media and from dopes on Twitter that the Lions are unstoppable and the best team in the league? I heard a LOT more people say this team was done and that Campbell was a goon who couldn’t get it done without his elite coordinators after the GB loss.
@Billl2021
To be fair, BAL was without an elite DT (Madubuike) and Van Noy. Replay the game with those two healthy and I doubt DET is ripping off all those 10 yard + runs. But yeah, DET came to play and probably would have won regardless, especially now that Derrick Henry is Mr. Butterfingers.
@42yardline
The old Costanza method.
Never understood this - since most gamblers lose money betting football, how about gamblers pick their winners and then bet the opposite of what they really think? Comments anyone?
@Walter
Just imagine when they get everybody back. Scary
You don't need great coordinators when you have great talent!
@Jasonwbantle
The Bengals are most definitely BAD.
Bengals aren’t bad. Their defense sucks but blocking is underrated. Not great but not bad. And they have the best wr group in football along with a top ten rb.
Vikings missing a ton of starters including qb rb s LT
Also Texans and Bears opened as favorites.
WEEK 3 Early Games ATS:
ATL, MIN, GB, HOU, IND, LAR, LV, TB, NE
Even the best of defenses eventually tap out when they're getting no support from their offense. GB 27, CLE 14
GLTA
@Jasonwbantle
Wentz and Mason are probably upgrades from McCarthy and Aaron Jones. Darrisaw may play. Meanwhile, CIN will likely be without Shemar Stewart, Cam Taylor-Britt and D.J. Turner.
Awuzie and Reader were hurt and they let him walk. Hubbard was a liability on defense.
@mazah13
You can get them from Wunderdog website
"The Lions lost to the Packers by two touchdowns, but the gap between the two teams was much wider than that. They went on to crush the Bears, but Chicago is a terrible team that shot itself in the foot repeatedly."
So Chicago shot themselves in the foot multiple times yet allowed a franchise record in YPA and Goff to throw for 5 TDs not to mention exceptional blocking by the OLine that only allowed 2 pressures and opened holes in the running game.
Detroit even though playing not great against GB still won the TOP by a lot which you mention all the time as a reason why another team should have won yet you just choose to ignore that while not giving the same - "shot itself in the foot argument". Honestly it's clear you're hellbent on the Lions being overrated this year when there is no evidence to support that especially this early in the year.
@Karensman
Bone. Not white...bone.
@Baird
Love those clean angles in your LV/WAS look ahead. I worry about WAS, too. Daniels is the real deal, but WAS is due some serious luck regression this year. (Which we may already be seeing with the injuries.) Also: While I get the idea of surrounding Daniels with a veteran cast during his rookie contract window, WAS's roster feels too old.
Week 1 was great with 15U Den ML, 4U win on Vegas teasers, 11 on teasers w local guy and 0.5 McLaurin under. 30.5U win is much better than my 20U loss to start last season. NYG +12.5 & KC +3 failed to cover.
FWIW - I love AC for DROY but the odds are so baked (+160) that I have to wait to make sure he doesnt get hurt. They cant drop much further, but yes he will win.
Week 3 look ahead - WAS 1st true TNF/short week vs tough GB team = they expectedly looked weak. Before TNF I loved WAS look ahead to bounce back week 3 vs LVR who will be putting full effort into home opener vs LAC on MNF. Extra time for WAS + LVR short week + natural letdown + travel cross country = I loved WAS. BUT, the injuries to Ekeler, Brown and Wise jr are BIG. IF Jaden and Terry can finally get on the same page & if the rookie RB can step up & if LVR suffers some kind of bad luck on MNF then I'm back to loving WAS in week 3. I'm hitting Deebo props either way.
I'll try to post my plays after the fight tomorrow & limit the rambling. My main bet hinges on CAR LT and AZ RG. C'mon Hernandez! Leaning Connor over props either way
*Feeling Tyreek Hill squeeky wheel props + Nico Collins props (Dean size mismatch + said he took pay cut cause he loves TB which tells me he lost a step + HOU home opener). I hope Kirk can suit up to take pressure away.
ARI -6.5 I gave Bryce Young one week, and Walt is right - Bryce Young sucks. He has limitations that can't be overcome at the NFL level, and - like last season - I'm betting his poor performance will snowball. I expect the ARI D to get some TOs and Conner/Benson to take turns gashing the CAR D.
I kinda like the Cardinals this year. Yeah, they're probably looking at a 2-0 start vs. two of the worst teams in the league, but ARI's roster is talented and they could easily be 6-1 going into their BYE.
NE +2.5 There's a better chance that Mike McDaniel will be DET's OC in '26 than MIA's HC, and everyone knows it. MIA is a mentally and physically soft team that may have already tapped out. For me, MIA is an AUTO FADE until I see reason for them not to be.
I have my question's about Drake Maye and worry about NE's secondary, but as long as the Pats employ TreVeyon Henderson as RB1 - I'm guessing they will - they should win SU.
NYG +6 If Russell Wilson's Week One performance rolls over to Week 2 - which it easily could behind that Andrew Thomasless O-line and "force-feed Malik Nabers" scheme - then the Dart Era might arrive before halftime. I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but preseason Dart looked like an immediate upgrade from Wilson, and could easily spark the Giants to (at least) a backdoor cover. I'm assuming a lot here, but no risk it, no biscuit.
Note: I don't trust Guyton and Steele vs. Carter and Burns.
@Baird
Yeah, Carter's DROY chances look promising. The Dart era could begin as soon as this Sunday for the Giants, which may increase the likelihood that Thibodeaux gets traded, meaning even more snaps/opportunity for Carter.
I still think Malaki Starks is in a great position to rack up some big plays and narrow the lead, and I've got my eye on CIN LB Demetrius Knight Jr., who was flying around everywhere and super-productive Week One. Could be a Shaquille Leonard-type situation where Knight just puts up so many numbers that he forces the voters' hands.
@Baird
Verse is such a beast. With J.C. Latham OUT, Byron Young should get in on the sack fun too. TEN is going to ruin Cam Ward.
Dotson is playing and Sweat is OUT for TEN. Should be a workmanlike win for the Rams unless they're looking ahead to PHI Week 3. Rams are well-coached, so I doubt that happens.
Limmer 27 pass (ouch!), but 89 run block grade
As an Anaheim Rams fan, I'm obligated to to rebut w Verse (90) vs Moore Jr (26 pass block). 2, 3 or 4 sacks for Verse?
"Week 2 is often known as Overreaction Week because people form wild opinions based on what transpired in one week of football."
Then you proceed to overreact to the Lions Week 1.
I guess Detroit better fire their 2 new coordinators because of "Massive Regression". How about we wait until Week 8 and 9 and see where the team is at before you validate your opinion?
Walter you have Chicago beating Detroit in your game descriptions and picks, but you have Detroit is number eight in your confidence pool.
you also have Indianapolis beating Denver and your descriptions with your pics and you have Denver as number five in your confidence pool
what’s the deal
PS I also put in Baltimore for the survival pool and somehow that’s wiped out and you wish me luck until next year which is fine because I do pay for one and they didn’t erase my pick
cmon man
@Mr. Bitter
Its on hiatus. Things keep getting tighter. Perhaps later this season we'll pick it back up.
@WFDevTeam
DFS Contest?
@j_oliver_23
The Athletic had a newsletter by Chrish Branch that declared the Bills winner of the Super Bowl and Daniel Jones league MVP. So it happens
Here are some stats to combat your opinion on "Massive regression" for the Detroit Lions due to losing their coordinators.
It's a rare occurrence happening to 4 other teams in the past 20+ years + Last record prior to losing coordinators
Phi - 2022 - 14-3 SB Loss
Cin - 2013 11-5 WC Loss
NE - 2004 - 14-2 SB win
SF - 1994 - 13-3 SB Win
The next year following the loss of their coordinators they went
Phi - 11-5 WC Loss
Cin - 10-5-1 WC Loss
NE - 10-6 (won division) DR Loss
SF - 11-5 (won division) DR Loss
So history actually does NOT show that a "massive regression" is what's coming for the Lions who were 15-2 last season rather a slight regression of a game or 2 which was obviously to be expected with their 15-2 record and a much harder SOS. Hopefully facts help with your assessment, along with factoring in that there are rookies playing in the middle of the line, which naturally require an adjustment period rather than they they are overrated and suck.
What do you think after week one?
Does not seem like a reach the entire pre-season and through week one. He has been a starter since day one.
@Karensman
The Gridiron Uniform Database constantly updates uniform matchups as uni announcements are released. Has all the historic uniforms, too. Fun little site.
Why, oh why, won't the Lions wear those sweet silver pants??
GL Karensman
LARGE
SEA +1.5 McCaffrey is washed. Trent Williams may be too, and the rest of the O-line is mediocre save for RG Puni. Defensively, the days of Armstead, Buckner, Hargrove, Greenlaw and Hufanga are over; the depth chart is now Bosa, Warner and a bunch of question marks. The SF STs are putrid. Until SF is valued correctly, they're an auto-fade for me. SEA wins SU.
CIN -5.5 Narrative changer. CIN will jump out 14-0 before CLE knows what's happening. CLE might hang around a bit as Flacco attacks CIN's weak LBs and Ss with a healthy dose of Njoku, but CIN pulls away in the 2nd half behind Chase Brown and some Flacco TOs.
MODERATE
DET +2 Until GB proves they can beat the big boys, I gotta fade them vs. the big boys. Lost amid the Parsons talk is the fact that DET returns Hutchinson (along with about half their defensive starters). Toss into the mix a battered GB WR corps and QUESTIONABLE Nate Hobbs, and I like the fully healthy Lions to quiet the "new coordinators" talk with a divisional road win. &l SMALL< TB -1 As long as Vea plays, the Bucs have the advantage in the trenches. I anticipate the ATL O-line without Dalman and McGrady will be more problematic than anticipated. (Penix's pressure/no pressure splits were alarming last year.) TB should be able to establish Bucky Irving vs. a weak ATL DT group. WR2 Darnell Mooney (3 TDs vs. TB last season) trending OUT doesn't help ATL's cause. DEN -8.5 I'm not sure if we've seen TEN fully bottom out yet. (I'm not sold on Cam Ward.) When you're talking about the addition of LT Dan Moore like it's a good thing, you're f*cking low, man. BAL -1 Running game and defense travels, especially early-season. I don't trust the BUF defense to contain MVP snub-motivated Lamar Jackson, who will toss 3 TDs and rush for one more. NON-BET NYG +6 IND -1 CAR +3.5 NE -2.5 NYJ +3 LAR -3 CHI +1 Happy hunting, gentlemen. &l
@Baird
Last thing: With the SF WR corps battered and disorganized, my biggest fear is that the Niners will just kill SEA with a steady diet of George Kittle.
I'm interested to see if the Seahawks employ Nick Emmanwori (my darkhorse to join Malaki Starks, Abdul Carter and draft crush Jahdae Barron in the DROY race) as something resembling a Kittle/McBride-eraser. Emmanwori's skill set is perfect for the job.
First off... Congrats Walt on preseason - you killed it. I
wish I joined outside of BAL, but I see an evenness going into this season so
I'm gun shy. Nonetheless, BRAVO on a great start. You dissected all 1s, 2s
& 3s perfectly – keep it up.
I've been tempering my expectations and have backed off a few bets + going
smaller on DK the 1st week.
I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??
- I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.
DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)
- ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
- Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.
I think the talking heads have been hanging
too hard to SF’s schedule. Don’t get me wrong…. I love the schedule & them
to make the playoffs; I love Salah back; I love the best O coordinator/HC in
the game; I love… that’s it. I wanted to hate Darnold and call him a 1 hit
wonder until I saw Kubiaks scheme. I have to trust what I saw in preseason from
that offense. Yes, I know, PRESEASON. But! I cant help but think about SF
losing a few pieces… Hargrave on the front, Greenlaw in the middle, Hufunga
back & Ward on the side. Also, to hear SEA is going to incorporate Milroe
into the fold + homefield + everyone thinks SEA sucks = I went BIG teasing SEA +8.5
*Full disclosure: Cross is a stud + high-ranking rookie next to him, but rest
of O-line sucks. However, SF is starting 3 rookies on defense (see loses above).
*I forgot to mention Deebo is gone, Aiyuk is out and McCaffrey was weak in his 4 games last Dec. If I was a D coordinator like Macdonald, I would shadow Riq’s size w Jennings and let the rest play out. SEA wins 1st half
<Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…
PHI -1.5 (small pivot/hedge when it went to 8.5 w/ DAL
+14.5)
Small PHI/Dal > 41.5
Mix KC/LAC
PIT +3 (thanks Walt for write-up)
IND +7.5 (old) – on a side note, does Mc lose locker room, Hill leave or Tua
get floored first? I don’t see MIA lasting
Jax +3 (although I love Hubbard in DK)
LVR/NE (more on <50 + small tease both ways)
NYG/WAS mix *I have a lot to say on this game, but already rambling so… Terry
<rec yds (miss long bomb for PI? error in our favor)
CIN/CLE mix (heavier on CLE +11.5 w/ Walt)
ARI 0
DEN -1.5 to -2.5 Obv
*SEA +8.5* may go ML, we’ll see
Hit MIN + BAL 2-3 weeks ago @ +1.5
BAL +7.5 HUGE
MIN +7.5 – might hedge w/ CHI +7.5 now
@Baird
And now Christian McCaffrey is QUESTIONABLE with a new calf injury. Predictable. The thing about athletes like McCaffrey (incredibly tightly wound as opposed to good, natural musculature) is that by the time they're 28, every muscle wants to detach. McCaffrey will never be the same and is approaching the cliff. As is Trent Williams.
@Baird
Jordan Elliott. Kalia Davis. Dee Winters. Upton Stout. Ji'Ayir Brown. Jason Pinnock. These are current STARTERS on the SF defensive depth chart.
Also: If the game is close, the 49ers are at a disadvantage with their historically bad ST units. Ultra-inconsistent Jake Moody is somehow still the kicker, with washed Thomas Morstead at punter.
@Baird
RT Abraham Lucas isn't bad...he's just always injured. I'm assuming he's healthy for this game since SEA just gave him a 3-year/$46M contract extension on Thursday. If a healthy Lucas with some chip help from A.J. Barner (good blocking TE) keeps Bosa under control, who else on that SF D-line is ready to step up?
@Mr. Bitter "..set you chumps straight" - love it!
Bosa is my biggest concern. Not cause he's amazing, but the right-side of SEA is so bad.
Full disclosure - I dont think Darnold sees ghosts (yet)
Be careful not to overuse the "hipster pick" thing.
I'm also not sold on Bryce Young and predict the Panthers will finish 3rd in the NFC South, but CAR seems to have some direction under Canales, so the idea of the Panthers winning a weak division isn't outlandish if I'm wrong about Young.
CAR has improved their offensive and defensive lines and bolstered the rushing attack over the last two seasons - which is usually a good formula for establishing long-term success. Teams could run at will vs. CAR last season, but the return of Derrick Brown along with FA and draft additions will likely change that. The Panthers might be a tough out.
A "hipster pick" would be the Dolphins to win 11 games or something.
You remain as clueless as you've ever been. I've read the first two games and already can't stand it.
First off, the wALT line of 19.5 on the eagles was insane. Divisional game between rivals but you have 19.5 as the line. Eagles with no motivation which you seem to pretend to care about for other games so much.
Then in the Chiefs game you pretend everyone is down on the Chiefs but 61% of the bets are on KC.
You're falling into the same trap again this year. You have an idea and then focus on confirmation bias. At this point you should realize that you have NO EDGE and that you are picking games at a rate within a variance of a coin flip. Give it up and go start a MAGA podcast before its too late.
Notes:
SEA will win SU.
Agree on MIA. House of cards ready to collapse.
Wouldn't touch CLE even at +11.5. I think Walt is misreading this one. The Bengals have heard it all about their traditional slow starts and their piss-poor defense. It's why the starters were out there in preseason. I'm confident Burrow and company come storming out of the gates and Al Golden's new scheme rewrites the crappy CIN defense narrative for at least one week. Bengals in a blowout.
@Baird
Waiting for official injury reports, weather, etc, then will set you chumps straight.
Until then, I couldn't agree with you more on SF/SEA.
The Niners are being valued as if they're the same team from two years ago. They're not.
Cheap Purdy and expensive Purdy are two different beasts, both from individual pressure and team-building standpoints.
The WR corps and O-line are problematic.
Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be washed.
Other than Bosa and Warner, the defense is nothing but question marks and unproven youngsters. (Right now, SEA has the better defense. As do LAR and ARI.)
There's profit in fading SF until folks catch up.
Dan Campbell has routinely out-coached LaFleur at every stop and Detroit has the talent advantage is almost every position group. Continually playing the Coordinator card is an easy media trope to jump on but when you dig into it, they actually replaced their coordinators with in-house guy for DC (who A Glenn literally groomed for the role) and an in-house guy in 2022 for OC (Who Dan also coached with in NO).
They've clearly said they aren't changing the offense as it's the top 3 in the NFL already so to use the Eagles as a comparison is a poor choice as it's apples to oranges.
Sure the middle of the O Line is a question but Glasgow is proven at least average at Center and Mahogany graded very highly in his 2 starts last season and Ratledge is next to Sewell the best OT in football. Also you don't even talk about how much improved the Lions Defense is by simply being healthy - Potentially top 5 secondary in the NFL, Hutch is back on a DPOY track, Health LBer room and high end start (Reader) and 1st rd pick in T Williams for DT.
Detroit vs everybody
@j_oliver_23
Good stuff. Also: Like everyone, I worry about the DET interior O-line, but it's not as if GB has a game-wrecking DT. With Kenny Clark traded, the GB interior DL may be as big of a question as the DET interior OL.
@42yardline
Their best decision since ditching those mid-2000s, CFL-looking uniforms.
@Mr. Bitter
Your statement that Kaiir Elam is Dallas's top outside CB is reason enough to bet the house on Philly in Thursday's game. The Back Judge will be treated for Tennis Elbow after the game for the amount of flags he throws on Elam for holding.
Getting rid of Elam was one of the best decisions the Bills have made in a long time.
You've gotta get Nyck Harbor in the 1st round. Freak athlete that will melt brains at the Combine.
@Sdoc135
I was thinking the same thing - especially with the possibility that A.J. Brown is rusty off that hamstring injury - but now it appears that Trevon Diggs will be OUT for DAL. That leaves Kaiir Elam as DAL's top outside CB. Not good. Still, the Cowboys have backdoor potential against a PHI defense that lost a lot of veteran leaders and is incorporating new, young parts. Probably a non-bet for me.
Agree on the Lions. Last year was their year.
To add to their list of issues: Still no viable EDGE threat opposite Hutchinson. Marcus Davenport is an injury waiting to happen.
DAL/PHI I'm worried about the backdoor cover, too. Not because the DAL offense is a juggernaut, but because the PHI defense is green after losing veteran leaders Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham and Oren Burks.
Youngsters like Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, Kelee Ringo, Sydney Brown are talented, but are going from rotational pieces to starters. Jihaad Campbell, Azeez Ojulari, Josh Uche and Andrew Mukuba are nice additions, but may not be fully acclimated to Fangio's scheme. This defense will look different and there could be a vulnerable transition period.
Interested to see if the loss of Mekhi Becton dings the PHI rushing attack. Becton was a bulldozer for the Eagles last season. Tyler Steen has never graded well as a starter. Landon Dickerson is also banged up to start the season.
Underrated factor: PHI's greatest defensive strength (interior pressure/Jalen Carter) could be subdued a bit by DAL's strong interior O-line.
It also feels like DAL is usually at their best when the least is expected of them.
PHI 31 DAL 24
The Vikings are hard to read. Still, I think this list overvalues them.
O'Connell has a knack for extracting lemonade from lemons at QB, but those were veterans. McCarthy is green and didn't throw too many passes at Michigan. We'll see.
The MIN interior O-line improvements look good on paper, but the Vikes are relying on a rookie and two injury-plagued guys the Colts and other suitors had no interest in overpaying. The situation doesn't feel as dependable as the Thuney/Dalman upgrades to the CHI interior O-line.
I worry about the MIN run defense. After trading Harrison Phillips, there's no real NT to keep blockers off of Cashman and Pace.
The MIN secondary is worrisome. Jeff Okudah is a starter. Not good. And Harrison Smith could become a liability at any second.
Los Angeles Rams: Anthony Evans III, WR, Georgia 
Davante Adams was a nice signing, but he obviously won’t be around forever.
Anthony Evans has flashed some potential. He’s seen as having good upside.
----
Evans was about the 5th best WR on a team with WR issues AND .. he hasn't been a member of the Georgia roster since January lol