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The Titans have had a remarkable off-season, despite how they had the outlook of an NFL team that was on the verge of quitting a few months ago. I still don’t know if Callahan can be trusted, along with the new coordinators. I would have kept Mike Vrabel, maybe demoting him to being a linebacker’s coach or something.

The offense should be better, but I am not sold on Levis. On top of that, Tennessee has a brutal schedule.

@giantclashofclansking  Ridder moved to Arizona a while back.

Projecting Spencer Rattler to AZ was bad enough yesterday, but to do it again today with their 1st pick in Rd 4, tells me that your source for Arizona was blowing smoke up your butt all weekend, and more importantly, you weren't doing your research.  As I told you, at the end of Day 3, Arizona never came close to spending draft capital on a QB, because that would make no sense.  You're ignoring the combo of Kyler's Salary and the Cap hit they would suffer if he's gone, plus who much Gannon actually likes Kyler. The 2025 draft class has Deion Sanders kid, who sounds like he'd be a head case, and nothing else.  Monti was never moving off MHJ, unless the Chargers were going to be willing to trade with AZ to get back to 5 and not steal everything in the pantry, which is what Harbaugh wanted to do.  I liked how Monti moved down and grabbed more picks.  MHJ and more bodies was the prescription for this year.  May 20 is the 1st day MHJ can catch passes from Kyler.  I assume they'll have a really good idea how good MHJ is by training camp.  As for the other 10 picks, the free agent pickupa and other additions, might not be until mid-season, and it might even be next year before a realistic grade can be given to Monti for picking groceries.  Grabbing MHJ and not doing anything stupid like wasting a pick on a QB, means the fan base will come into the season very optomistic, very willing to give Gannon & Monti more time.

@42yardline 

the bills seem to be very thin at wide receiver, however, keon coleman was a great pick, but they need more.

the team that is the biggest off season loser is the vikings. they let their franchise quarterback, kirk cousins walk out the door, and got zero compensation for this. then, they followed up that mistake by making a 2nd mistake by drafting the 20 yr old JJ maccarthy who is nowhere near ready to play in the NFL, lacks arm strength, and in my opinion will be a monumental bust in pro football. 

No way is Arizona taking a QB unless it's really late (6-7) when they need so much help elsewhere, with the draft being deep where they have need (WR, CB.  Really happy about Monti taking MHJ, who has Superstar written all over him.  But they need more help at WR, preferrably a burner, or semi-burner like Troy Franklin or Ladd McConkey, but I also like Keon Coleman & Jacob Cowling.

@42yardline 

I just feel if anything the Chiefs should have to pay a tax of losing a player like Hill every season they have Mahomes.  Its just not fair.

@Mr. Bitter Same to you!  I kind of stopped working on this one in the last 2 days and just worked on my contest mock.  We'll see how it goes!  

I see 2 pick 17s, same player, two different teams.

"The Falcons can’t possibly go into the 2024 season with Desmond Ridder as the starter again. However, this is too early to draft J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix."

You remember they have Kirk Cousins, right?

It's been fun. Good luck!

Love Cooper Dejean to the Seahawks, but I feel like theyre more likely to trade down than most.

Good draft though ??

@The Champ:  The latest from Monti is the Cards trade No. 4 and screw over Minnesota who pays for the privilege.  At the same time, the Cardinals trade some of what they got from Minnesota (No. 11 & No. 23) to the Chargers at No. 5 so they can draft Marvin Harrison.  The Minnesota deal only takes place if the Cardinals are able to make a deal with the Chargers, which leaves them with Minnesota's No. 1 in 2025.  Arizona might throw in something else to entice the Chargers, but not too much.  If Monti can pull that off, everyone in Arizona will be happy.

The latest from Monti is the Cards trade No. 4 and screw over Minnesota for the privilege, while at the same time, the Cardinals trade some of what they got from Minnesota (No. 11 & No. 23) to the Chargers at No. 5 so they can draft Marvin Harrison.  The Minnesota deal only takes place if the Cardinals are able to make a deal with the Chargers, which leaves them with Minnesota's No. 1 in 2025.  If Monti can pull that off, everyone in Arizona will be happy.

@jtrapp1962 

Oh and "No," the Raiders ain't picking Penix.  O'Connell, a 4th round pick last year, was very good his last four games (8 TDs, 0 INTs, and 3 wins).  They also signed Minshew to a starter salary contract.  Maybe they draft Rattler later, but Penix in the 1st?  Why?  Did Al Davis dig himself out of his grave?  And if so, why isn't he drafting Xavier Worthy?

Working backwards:

7th Round:  Wiley and Jaden Hicks would be the steals of the draft if they went this late.

6th:  Way too late for Javon Baker.  I also have Jordan Travis going to the 49ers here.  He makes sense as a backup to Purdy.

5th:  Matt Lee (like most of UM players in the draft), would have been drafted higher last year.

4th:  You're spot on about Lovett.  I think teams who don't like Fiske's measurables and run defense in the middle, like Lovett for the opposite reasons.  35"+ arms, zero missed tackles last year.

What happened with Michael Hall?  You had him as a 1st rounder for months.

3rd:  Tampa and Nubin would be steals here.  I like DBs who can tackle.

2nd:  Miami needs a run defender at DT, and drafting Newton in the 1st and then drafting an OL here makes more sense.  Maybe a better strategy would be to draft to OLs, then get Lovett or Maason Smith at pick 158.

Either Verse or Turner can slip this far, but I think it's Turner.

1st:  JC Latham at the 5th pick??? OK, let's ignore Alabama's terrible record at developing OTs for the NFL in the past 10 years and super reach for the guy who is 5th OT, at best, on most boards.  This is the same guy as the last guy, who was the same guy as before.

I agree that ATL picks Latu as a "Win Now" guy.

KC is not in "develop a raw OT prospect mode" as they were in 2013.  They need to protect Mahomes, not get him killed while Kingsley learns to block.

Arizona fan base is going to riot if Monti trades out (as they should), and passes on MHJ, thinking Rome is going to make anywhere near the same kind of impact.  Since he was a Sophomore in HS, MHJ has stood head-and-shoulders above all other WRs and almost all other prospects. At the top of the draft, taking LEGENDS is always the smart play.  Minnesota's 11 & 23 and their 2025 No. 1 is nowhere near enough for AZ. For Minnesota, it makes no sense giving up more picks when Minnesota can get the McCarthy (who has bust written all over him in my book) by trading with the Chargers at 5, and giving up less.  While AZ finished at the bottom, the on-field product was much improved, so it bought some time with the fan base.  AZ has 10 picks in this draft, more than enough to juice up the talent level.  MHJ is a marketing ideal, the best possible face to put on the AZ franchise.  Picking MHJ means they're guaranteed to get one right. The big challenge is going to be hitting on the other 9.

Charlie doesn’t like Latu as first defensive player taken anymore?

@dcalvertconsulting You could be right, but allow me to play devil's advocate for a moment.  Let's say that you're right, and that it's Arizona's intention to not move off MHJ unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer.  Wouldn't it then make sense to leak that you LOVE him and project that it would take a gigantic haul for you to move off that player?  Instead, they have very clearly sent signals that the pick is open for business.  To me, that could mean a couple of things.  One, that they actually do love all 3 WR's, as Jurecki has flat-out stated.  And two, that maybe, just maybe, they already have a wink-wink agreement with a team (almost certainly either MIN or NYG) and they are projecting that the pick is open because they are willing to see if any other team will present them with an even better offer when they are on the clock.  

It's true that Harrison is still the huge betting favorite to be the first WR chosen, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Arizona will pick him.  For example, if they trade out of 4 and a QB goes in that spot, for all we know, the Chargers could absolutely pick Harrison at 5.  

Arizona is nowhere near being 1 player away.  As great as MHJ is, consider the roster building possibilities over the next 2 years if you could get Minnesota to cough up 11, 23, and a 2025 1st.  Arizona would then have three 1st's this year (in what's considered to be a loaded class), a high-2nd at 35 overall, and three 3rd's, two of which are high atop that round.  And then two 1st's next year.  You can totally re-shape the roster over the next 2 seasons.  And they'd have such a war chest of assets that it could be entirely possible to move back up from 11 to secure one of the top 3 WR's.  If I'm Ossenfort, this would be my preferred route.  

This stuff is so exciting to consider.  We'll see how it all plays out.  Just over 14 hours to go!  

solid picks

I put Caleb in his own class.  Like McCarthy, Jayden Daniel's stats are inflated by playin with a much better supporting cast.  Jayden and McCarthy both have really fragile bodies, which typically don't play long in the NFL  I rate Drake Maye much better because of the offensive line he had to play behind, and because his size and strength

Write it down in black magic marker: Cardinals taking MJH at 4, whom them have rated as the highest player on their board by far, their highest grade on a player ever. Monti has done a great job in year 1, but Monti has also been blowing smoke for a month now.  He'll only move for a Kings Ransom, and no one has come close or likely will. He knows he screwed up last year missing out on Will Anderson, DPOY to gain a meaningless pick at 27.  Monti can't afford to let the 2025 OPOY slip from his fingers. While they're both good, neither Nabers or Odunze is in his class. Nabers is going to struggle to get off press coverage.  Odunze reminds me of a faster Q. Boldin, but not as tough.

ROUND 3:

65.   CAROLINA PANTHERS – WR JALEN MCMILLAN, WASHINGTON

66.  ARIZONA CARDINALS – OG DOMINICK PUNI, KANSAS

67.  WASHINGTON COMMANDERS – OT ROGER ROSENGARTEN, WASHINGTON

68.  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – WR JERMAINE BURTON, ALABAMA

Burton has the tools and ability of a first-round receiver, but character concerns push him down to the third round here. It’s a worthy flier to take for New England, because if they can keep him in check, he’ll be a phenomenal weapon for Drake Maye to utilize.

69.  LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – LB JUNIOR COLSON, MICHIGAN

How many Michigan players will Jim Harbaugh take in this draft? Probably more than one, but he’ll start it here with Junior Colson. He could go higher than this, but it’s tough to tell how the NFL rates this weak linebacker class.

70.  NEW YORK GIANTS – RB TREY BENSON, FLORIDA STATE

71.  ARIZONA CARDINALS – EDGE JALYX HUNT, HOUSTON CHRISTIAN

72.  NEW YORK JETS – QB BO NIX, OREGON

Like Penix, I’m not buying that Bo Nix is going to be a round one pick, either. Here in the third round, it’s a value for the Jets–Nix is an older prospect, but he won’t need much development before he sees the field, and he won’t be sitting for long behind Aaron Rodgers. Nix will give them the opportunity to not be forced into a QB solution after Rodgers retires.

73.  DETROIT LIONS – CB CAELEN CARSON, WAKE FOREST

74.  ATLANTA FALCONS – S CALEN BULLOCK, USC

75.  CHICAGO BEARS – DT KRIS JENKINS, MICHIGAN

The Bears will consider DT at #9, and should be ecstatic here to land Jenkins in the third. He’s not a dominant player on the interior, but he does a great job at filling up space in the middle of the defensive line.

76.  DENVER BRONCOS – TE BEN SINNOTT, KANSAS STATE

77.  LAS VEGAS RAIDERS – CB D.J. JAMES, AUBURN

78.  WASHINGTON COMMANDERS – CB KRIS ABRAMS-DRAINE, MISSOURI

79.  ATLANTA FALCONS – QB SPENCER RATTLER, SOUTH CAROLINA

Rattler managed to steady his career at South Carolina, and though he has major consistency issues and some questionable on-field decision-making, Atlanta is a good situation for him to go sit for a little bit and develop with the hopes of one day becoming an NFL starter.

80.  SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – LB PAYTON WILSON, NC STATE (VIA CINCINNATI)

81.  SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – OC SEDRICK VAN PRAN-GRANGER, GEORGIA

82.  INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – WR BRENDEN RICE, USC

83.  LOS ANGELES RAMS – LB CEDRIC GRAY, NORTH CAROLINA

84.  PITTSBURGH STEELES – OT BLAKE FISHER, NOTRE DAME

The Steelers will definitely consider tackle in Round 1, but they land a prospect with great potential here in Round 3. He’ll need some development, but Fisher has the fools and athleticism to eventually become a clear upgrade over current starter Dan Moore Jr.

85.  CLEVELAND BROWNS – WR JOHNNY WILSON, FLORIDA STATE

86.  HOUSTON TEXANS – OT KIRAN AMEGADJIE, YALE

87.  DALLAS COWBOYS – LB TREVIN WALLACE, KENTUCKY

88.  GREEN BAY PACKERS – OT MATT GONCALVES, PITTSBURGH

89.  TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – WR MALIK WASHINGTON, VIRGINIA

90.  ARIZONA CARDINALS – OG CHRISTIAN MAHOGANY, BOSTON COLLEGE

91.  GREEN BAY PACKERS – CB RENARDO GREEN, FLORIDA STATE

92.  TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – OG MASON MCCORMICK, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

93.  BALTIMORE RAVENS – S JAVON BULLARD, GEORGIA

94.  SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – EDGE BRALEN TRICE, WASHINGTON

95.  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – LB TYRICE KNIGHT, UTEP

96.  JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – OT JAVON FOSTER, MISSOURI

97.  CINCINNATI BENGALS – OG ZAK ZINTER, MICHIGAN

98. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – DT MAASON SMITH, LSU

My favorite prospect-to-pro comparison of this entire cycle comes from Brett Kollman: Maason Smith is Stephon Tuitt. The Steelers still haven’t fully recovered from Tuitt’s unfortunate retirement, and Smith will have the opportunity to develop a little bit behind Cam Heyward before eventually getting the opportunity to succeed him.

99. LOS ANGELES RAMS – CB JARRIAN JONES, FLORIDA STATE

100.  WASHINGTON COMMANDERS – RB AUDRIC ESTIME, NOTRE DAME

@SteelCityLJ Almost there, good luck!

@jpmccormick22 Agreed on the trade front. From all the research I've done, the Jags don't seem married to any one single prospect at the moment. Like you alluded, it really depends on how the board falls. I'm sure no one in Jacksonville would complain if Quinyon Mitchell fell or someone crazy dropped out of the top-10 like Odunze, haha. Thankfully, the wait will be over soon!

I hope Mitchell falls to the Cowboys in the first. The issue is we did lose Smith and Biadasz and will need OL help. Whatever, I can dream and whatnot.

@Longinus - The Cowboys got Pollard in 2019 in the 4th round. Of course he's not a bust of a draft pick. He was a bust as a starter however as he ran far better and for more yards as a backup behind Elliott which your stats bear out. That's why he's not getting big money and the Cowboys need to look in the draft for someone who will be a much better starter....unless he turns it around this year.

Appreciate the insight! The more I think about it I am leaning toward McKinstry now. Think it could be a spot someone will move up for a receiver too, that is if Jacksonville thinks they will still be able to grab their guy somewhere in the 20s.

"Tony Pollard was a huge bust" might be one of the more dunce football takes I've ever seen. Oh no, the Cowboys only got 3621 rushing yards (4.8 Y/A) and 1319 receiving yards and 28 TDs over 5 seasons from a 4th round pick, what a bust - said no one ever. But Walt, apparently.

@jpmccormick22 Don't get me wrong, Arnold could still very well be the pick. However, a lot of offenses nowadays have figured out that not every team has two Tyson Campbells (big 6'0-plus corners who can lock down a no. 1 receiver), so you'll typically see teams with two big receivers that can win contested balls, and then one slot guy. If Baalke wants a second Tyson Campbell-type guy, it'll be McKinstry. If he thinks Darby is already that guy (which I'm not convinced) then he'll take the leaner Arnold to cover the route running receivers.

@jpmccormick22 Thank you for the kind comment! You're correct about JAX's GM, he tends to go for guys with physical intangibles. Walker is the best example of that. Hutchinson was arguably more polished, but Baalke took Walker for being a straight up "physically athletic freak" type of guy. Not that Arnold isn't special or an outlier, but the "body test" is a good benchmark for the Arnold v. McKinstry debate. Looking at the guys side-by-side, although they are both physically imposing and play like a couple bulldogs, Arnold looks half the size of McKinstry at times.

TL;DR, Baalke - even back to his days in SF - seems to prefer guys who don't typically play like their size or body type might suggest. I think Etienne is a good underrated example: shorter and built bulky (5'10, 215lbs) but plays very shifty and catches well out of the backfield. You typically see 5'10 200+ guys bulk up another 10-15 pounds and become downhill, 3rd-and-short type backs.

This is some damn good work here.

Just curious what you mean by Baalke doesn’t draft guys in Terrion Arnold’s mold. Wouldn’t you say Travon Walker was sort of like that? Or do you mean he just goes by his own board sort of thing?

#1 Who the hell do you think you are speaking to anyone like that you don't even know them? 

#2 You are crying about the fact he doesn't edit word for word like anyone who has as much content and features you can't find anywhere else. I'm not telling you anything that you don't know, look at how you use his shit incessantly. I mean over and over and you add nothing but snide negativity in comments all over this site.

You are crying yet again about him 'Shilling" for monyletly like this is a free enterprise and your bitching about him advertising on his own property? Are you POSSIBLY that ignorant to ask something stupid like that or are you running out of things to complain about to actually make a new type of point that makes any sense and this is all you can come up with?

#3 what are the odds that Charlie or Walt even have your comments unblocked? I'm thinking 0% because who would ever want to give someone as toxic as you the time of day to do anything but flip you the bird? It means the only ones reading this can see it and you add NOTHING for the reader who might want to read from smart sports fans to make a good point on a subject Not some bipolar whine fest. 

#4 I've used this site for over a decade to hive me insight on college players I'm not familiar with, I use it for fantasy purposes and mock drafts to not only familiarize myself with good players I wouldn't otherwise know about but also what other teams needs and so forth. I only just now created this account to reach out to you specifically to request you not post your shitty hate unless you can at least be funny instead of judt obnoxious and stupid. You are lucky they don't block you're IP address. So if you don't like this website then go use someone else's or make one your damn self. 

End of rant

you absolutely suck at your job. Weaknesses: inconsistent but not listed for Arnold. Arnold got benched in a game this year and last year. Kool-Aid was the model of consistency on Alabama these last two years. You've have been getting worse at this job for the last 4 years, get it together

There’s less words written every year for each pick and a lot of it is copy/paste. Why?

On top of that, you’re shilling for a hand-out on every single page now. You knew the site was garbage for the last 10 years or so but now you want readers to hand you cash. You have no one to blame but yourself.

Is this trolling 49er fans??? 3 straight Dline when the Oline is the weakest link, and they still need an outside corner.... they signed 4 dline in F/A and they werent 1 year camp body type deals.

@The Champ 

There's been some schizophrenic odds on the EDGE prospects. Some mixed messages on Verse right now.

You appear to be right about Turner slipping. Something weird is going on with ATL. Almost overnight, their first position drafted odds went from DL/EDGE -225 and OL +1100 to DL/EDGE -180 and OL +525 (!!). With Cousins now hogging up all that cap, could ATL be looking to take advantage of the bountiful OL crop and get cheaper at OT by drafting Fashanu or Latham to replace McGary at RT and then perhaps Matthews at LT a few years down the line? That scenario has crossed my mind a few times. McGary is overpriced and a very Arthur Smith-specific RT.

@The Champ 

Yeah, Trey Pipkins shouldn't be starting. (Jamaree Syler, either.)

My thinking with the hypothetical Slater trade is LAC would receive Jonathan Allen along with WAS's 2.36 or 2.40. (Slater is just 25 and Allen is 29/expensive, so I think the compensation is fair.)

With one of WAS's 2nd RD picks to go along with their native pick at 2.37, I'm guessing the Chargers would be able to net Kingsley Suamataia for RT, or perhaps even Tyler Guyton in a moderate trade up into the late 1st RD. At the very worst, they could still come out of Day 2 with an upside RT prospect like Rosengarten, Brandon Coleman, etc. A cheap, risk/reward one-year bridge like slobberknocker Jack Conklin could easily be added, allowing Suamataia to ease in at RG for a season. There are options.

Bottom line: Harbaugh has a very specific vision and wants his kinda guys to build around Herbert. (Also, there's no way Harbaugh goes into next season without an interior DL linchpin.) My approach to the LAC draft is that NO starter from the prior regime is safe, especially if they're expensive or about to become expensive. They're tradeable assets. Hell, Keenan Allen was Herbert's one-and-only security blanket and Hortiz/Harbaugh banished him without hesitation.  

I'm no QB expert, either. I played a little and like to think I've learned a thing or two having spent an unhealthy amount of hours over the years soaking up QB-specific breakdowns from evaluators I respect, but there are mechanical nuances that I'm still iffy on. More importantly, I'm not privy to interviews/whiteboard sessions. So much of QB success is dependent on the prospect's character and whether or not the environment he's drafted into is optimal for his development. It's a crapshoot. The historic bust rate for 1st RD QBs reflects that.

With all that said, I'll add this: While I have my doubts about Drake Maye (plus arm/mobility - not elite, IMO. Not Josh Allen. Questionable accuracy/decision-maker, poor on-target % from clean pocket), Daniels is even riskier. Your critique of Daniels was being kind, as you didn't even mention his frame or his hesitance/lack of anticipation when working the middle of the field. I'm familiar with the Daniels/sack rate under pressure info, and it's alarming. It also totally checks out on tape. With Daniels, it's so often look-look, eyes down and dip. Often right into a sack. Sure, sometimes he works his way through the backfield congestion and into the open field for a highlight run, but that won't happen as often in the NFL, and when it does, he will be severely punished if he doesn't learn to protect himself. He's so skinny. Reports say he sometimes played at 190 last year. That's absolutely terrifying. He's approaching 24 and not likely to get much bigger. His Pro Day was almost sad. He's skinny, he knows he's skinny and he was obviously trying to hide it.

So yeah, high bust potential with both Maye and Daniels, which is why I'm not absolutely convinced NE won't take MHJ at 1.03 then target Penix or Nix later on.

What I find very odd is that - for all of Daniels' red flags - it's Maye that's constantly given the fine-tooth comb treatment from the media, while Daniels' even more alarming concerns go relatively unmentioned. The media just hums along as if Daniels at 1.02 is a given. I'm not sure that it is.

Something else I've noticed, regarding the possibility of Worthy to the Rams:  he's dropped all the way down to +1400.  That opened at something like +7000.  Earlier in the week it was +4000, and it was +3000 just yesterday.  

@Mr. Bitter Your thoughts on Alt/Slater are interesting, but I'm all aboard the MHJ train and MIN trading into 4, as you know.  If they trade Slater, they are still short a RT (Pipkins is terrible).  I think the idea would be to pair Slater with Alt, if they took him.  

Among the top 4 QB's, my biggest concern from a scouting standpoint (and I say this not claiming to be a scouting guru, as I am more of a mock draft guru) is actually with Daniels.  I could totally see Maye busting, don't get me wrong.  But he has the physical tools and I do see some Josh Allen in him; Allen was also considered to be inaccurate coming out of Wyoming.  But in getting back to Daniels, his sack rate under pressure is over a certain threshold where almost every QB has busted over the past 10-15 years.  Fields and Malik Willis were on this list recently, but there have been so many others.  I can't remember what the exact percentage is, but yes, Daniels was over the threshold, and, again, it's not just the number of sacks taken, it's the percentage of the sacks when there's actually pressure.  This might be the best predictor of busting that I've found.  It may suggest that you won't process or see the field well at the NFL level, when you're much less likely to have a clean pocket for as long as you do in college.  

One more thing.  I noted that I thought it was odd that Turner's O/U was 9.5 with no juice to either side, yet he was still -225 to be a top 10 pick.  Well, that has now normalized, because he's dropped to just Even money to be a top 10 pick now.  

@The Champ 

I've seriously considered Worthy for the Rams. They still need that speed element. He could be everything Tutu Atwell was supposed to be and then some.

BUF and KC are still the betting favorites for Worthy, but I don't see it. The Bills need more size at WR and KC signed Hollywood Brown. I think Worthy is destined for CIN, LAR, IND, CAR or SF, with MIA the dark horse. (If/when they pay Tua, one of Hill or Waddle will have to go. Keeping both won't be financially feasible.)

I agree that CHI's need for an EDGE is being somewhat overstated. Sweat is obviously EDGE1 and making EDGE1 money, and in Eberflus' scheme the second DE spot has always been a run-contain/DPR platoon. A Day Two prospect like Jonah Ellis could work in that DPR role to complement DeMarcus Walker. If the Bears trade down, my guy Chop Robinson would be picture perfect in that DPR role. Chop will never be an edge-setting 4-3 DE, but if you're looking for a guy to just pin his ears back and run at the QB, he's that guy. If Chop can develop an inside counter or two instead of just running the arc, he'd be absolutely lethal in that role.

As for the QBs at 1-2-3, we might just disagree on Drake Maye. I just don't see it with him, and the transferable metrics are unkind. The Herbert/Allen comps seem extremely generous to me. Charlie Campbell's hot press report that teams see Maye as being closer to Daniel Jones/Will Levis than Herbert/Allen sounds about right, IMO. I obviously won't let my personal bias prevent me from slotting Maye in the top 3 if Vegas odds suggest that's the way the wind is blowing, but I'll probably be skeptical right up until the draft.

I'm going to set aside a bit of time this weekend to thoroughly analyze the veteran trade market and each team's salary allocation and how that might impact the draft. I think people too often forget that some of these premium picks will be traded for vets, and that teams often pass on filling obvious needs in order to draft BPA at premium positions as a hedge against incumbents on the verge of becoming very expensive. (Especially for teams with a high-salary QB. Financial flexibility at premium positions is crucial for them.) This kinda overlaps with my LAC/Alt argument. I think Hortiz/Harbaugh could trade Rashawn Slater during this draft. I really do. Slater is a dependable LT, but he's going into his contract year and hasn't been the same since a season-ending ruptured biceps tendon in WK 3 of the '22 season and ensuing high ankle sprain issues. Are we sure that Hortiz/Harbaugh/Roman will be okay on resetting the OT market with Slater considering his downward career arc, substandard size and '23 PFF run-blocking grade of 59.5? I could see the Chargers draft Alt then trade Slater to WAS for DT Jonathan Allen and more Day 2 ammo.

@Mr. Bitter For me this is truly the most wonderful time of the year.  There's just nothing like it.  All of the possible scenarios you throw out there aren't without logic, and anything can happen.  Still, I just think we're going to see the QB's go 1-2-3, with no one trading back.  I think in most years, the top 3 guys (assuming McCarthy is QB4) would be the #1 overall pick.  If you're Washington and New England, you just have no idea if you are going to have access to a QB like this again.  It could take 10, 20 years.  The position is, essentially, everything.  So even though players like the top 3 WR's and Alt clearly have much safer floors (as well as great ceilings), ultimately, they aren't QB's.  So I don't see the top 3 teams trading back.  

At 4 is where it starts to get interesting, for me.  I've been projecting that Arizona will trade down with Minnesota for weeks, and I still absolutely believe it makes the most sense.  However, of course it's possible that Minnesota didn't actually get a promise (especially if Schefter is correct, though I sometimes doubt his draft-related reporting because he's ultimately working for the network that's televising the event), and if that's the case, it could mean that Arizona will stick and pick a WR for itself, or, of course, they could still trade down with another team that wants to come up for the QB, with the Giants making the most sense there (allowing Arizona to still get one of the top 2 WR).  

I think the Chargers would pick MHJ over Alt (I agree with Jurecki), but it's not like anyone could be shocked if they chose Alt.  Now, if MHJ goes at 4, my strong belief is that the Chargers would trade back with Minnesota.  Alt is the OT1, but I think Harbaugh would love Fuaga or Latham as his RT at 11, and then they'd have another pick at 23 (and another one at 37) to open their draft.  It would also give them the option to try to trade back up for the WR3 at 8, should they pursue that option, as there should still be viable RT's on the board at 23.  

The Giants trading back and then taking Bowers is sound logic.  I like it, actually.  I'm probably not going to mock it, but I do like it.  I also like the thought of Chicago leaping the Titans to pick Alt at 6, I really do.  As I stated in my blurb about them going with Fashanu, I think they are committed with the first 2 picks on going offense.  Of course an edge rusher would help, but the defense is already going to be really good.  A top-tier WR or a top LT make all the sense in the world for them.  My only question is wondering if CAR's 2025 2nd is enough for the Giants, but it's probably fair on the trade chart.  I wonder if the Giants would rather take something like #75 this year and, say, a 2025 Bears 3rd rounder.  In any case, I could see Chicago and the Giants agreeing to this if the Giants aren't absolutely sold on one of the top 3 WR; they'd have to think that Bowers is pretty close to them, obviously.  

I'd be surprised if the Saints moved up.  They don't have enough draft capital as it is, and I still think they'll have a fine blocker there at 14.  Especially with Ramcyzk's issues, I'm not sure that it would be a blow to them to take a RT.  And Latham may be there and I think he might be able to play LT.  

One last thing:  the more I think about it, I think the Rams will end up with Mims, Worthy, or Guyton.  

Seahawks are not going to draft a interior lineman that high in the draft look at John Schneiders comments about interior linemen being over valued. Seahawks will not draft T'vondre Sweat he has had a legal issue and the Seahawks have specifically called out character as a draft board impacting category. They will look to trade back and get more picks if no trade partner emerges look for them to take a player like cooper dejean or reach on a different DT

@The Champ 

I don't know about you, but I'm currently chin-deep in draft scenarios/puzzle solving. So much fun. Truly the most wonderful time of the year.

Bill Belichick recently stated that everything draftniks hear this time of year is agent-fed, and only what you hear 12 hours or less before the draft can be trusted. I don't think that's 100% true, but I'd say it's about 90% true. About a week out is when I go into "chaos mode". That's when I heavily filter the rumors and speculation, take a step back from all the comfortable consensus, and really try to sniff out the uncomfortable and not-yet-thought-of picks/trades that would initially shock, but then make you think, "Yeah, that actually makes sense". Because that's what happens in the real draft.

Last year around this time I started kicking around the idea of HOU drafting Stroud then trading up for Will Anderson. (I can't remember if it was you or NoHeroes, but I bounced the idea off of one of you guys in the comment section for a day or two.) I was convinced the trade was going to happen and made it a permanent part of my mock, but like a moron I deferred to Lance Zierlein's faulty Texans intel at the very last moment and removed the trade from my contest mock. I don't want to make the same mistake this year. That's why I pick your brain. (Probably too often. Sorry.) You think logically but outside the box. So many mocks just copy the media consensus. Those mocks are always wrong, so why do people keep going down that road?

Anyway, here are my two candidates to be the agents of chaos that throw everyone's 2024 top 10 into disarray:

1) The Patriots at 1.03.

I'm pretty sure Williams/Daniels go 1/2, and I believe Charlie Campbell when he says NE would prefer Daniels to Maye/McCarthy but be "okay" with QB3. But I still have my doubts whether the Pats like Maye/McCarthy better than MHJ or even Joe Alt.

For me, drafting Maye/McCarthy over MHJ or Alt is a pretty healthy reach. I get that standard rules go out the window when you desperately need a QB, but the Pats also desperately need a WR1 and LT. If I was a Pats fan, I think I would be more excited about -- let's say -- MHJ or Alt at 1.03 and a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Penix than Maye/McCarthy at 1.03 and Kingsley Suamataia at 2.34. or a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Tyler Guyton. I still think QB-QB-QB-MHJ is most likely, but I'm getting less comfortable with it by the day.

2) Joe Alt/Teams that need a LT

I just don't think the 1.07 TEN/Alt chalk is going to happen. It almost seems like when folks are creating their mocks, they're inking that pick in first then working around it. There are just too many plausible scenarios that take Alt off the board by then.

Alt to NE at 1.03. Extreme longshot, but possible.

Alt to LAC at 1.05. VERY possible. Hortiz is a Ravens guy. (I don't need to reel off examples...you know how highly BAL values O-line on draft day.) I also don't need to tell you how perfectly Alt fits the profile of a Harbaugh OT...or how the Ravens and Harbaugh have historically built their team identity through a dominant O-line/defense, etc, etc.

Alt at 1.06. This seems an obvious scenario to me, but I've never seen a single mock with a team trading right ahead of TEN for Alt. Alt (or MHJ) is arguably the cleanest blue chip in this draft; teams are going to want to move up for him, and they all know where they need to go to get him.

I think you're on to something with your CHI/Fashanu pick. Braxton Jones has surprised, but if you're Ryan Poles and in range for a perennial Pro Bowl LT, you go for it without a second thought to Jones. I say why not take it one step further? With Caleb Williams and that defense, the Bears aren't going to be in range for a LT of Alt's quality for a long time, and franchise LTs simply don't reach the open market. (While Pro Bowl WRs are traded constantly and high-quality WR draft prospects seem increasingly plentiful by the year.) Why not use that extra '25 2nd -rounder from CAR, move up to 1.06 for Alt and ensure Caleb William's edge protection is air-tight for the next decade? At 1.09, the Giants could draft Brock Bowers. Darren Waller is finished, and it seems every organizational move the Giants make lately just mimics what the Buffalo Bills did yesterday. The Giants could run their offense through Bowers just as BUF will run theirs through Dalton Kincaid. 

The Saints could also move up to 1.06 for Alt. They've made their bed with Derek Carr, and he has no chance without vast and immediate OT upgrades. The Saints currently don't have a viable LT option on their roster. There's no guarantee Fashanu makes it to them at 1.14 and Fashanu is far from a sure thing anyway. There will be O-linemen popping off like crazy in the teens, but Troy Fautanu is the only one ready to man LT and he may not meet NO's size standards.

FYI, you have Green Bay trading up to 21 (with the Dolphins), but then Green Bay picking again at 25, their original draft slot.  

Regarding the possibility of the Bengals trading up, they've literally never done that in the 1st Round since Duke Tobin has been in charge.  When they traded up 3 spots in the 2nd round in 2022 to pick Cam Taylor-Britt, it was after this draft that Tobin was quoted as saying, and I'm paraphrasing:  "it pains me to have to give up picks because each pick represents a chance to hit on somebody.  But we felt it was right in this case."  He just flat-out doesn't like to trade up, philosophically.  If anything, he's more likely to trade down.  I mean, never say never, but when mocking I think you have to go with the history when you're in the prediction game.  This is why I'm not mocking a CB to Philly, for example.  But I digress.  

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, for possible fallers I'm going with Bowers and Turner.  John Daigle just released a mock where he had Turner in the 20's, and he had the most accurate mock in the industry last year, I believe. 

I'm going to go with Newton as a potential riser going much earlier than expected.  He could really be this year's Kancey (who went 19th last year).  The league has told us that DT is a premium position, and Newton is awesome on film.  He could be someone that I have moving up between now and draft day.  I don't think he gets out of the 1st Round; I think that's easy money.  

What you say about the Giants has logic, and it wouldn't surprise me.  That said, I think that most teams have Nabers higher than him and I even buy the talk that many have him over MHJ, so if he happens to be on the board at 7, the Titans are going to get a lot of calls.  However, I still think that they would pick Alt in that scenario, and then Atlanta could trade out of 8 with all sorts of teams likely wanting Nabers.  CHI, NYJ, ARZ/LAC (whichever team ends up at 11 after trading down with MIN), IND, JAX, LAR, PIT, DAL, and BUF all come to mind.  (Think of how much they could potentially get out of some of those teams picking later if they were willing to move down that far.)  I really feel like the WR3 is going to go at #8, with a team trading up.  I don't think Atlanta would have given $26MM guaranteed to Mooney if they knew that one of the top 3 WR's were still very likely to be on the board at 8.  Hell, maybe they'll still pick the WR.  That ATL offense would be a hell of a lot of fun, that's for sure.  

Guard is one of the very few positions where DEN is set. Fuaga would only make sense if they plan on releasing McGlinchey -- which would be a $46.5M dead cap hit.

Somehow, someway, the Broncos have to come out of this draft with their QB1. Singular mission.

@petermwb 

No, the biggest question is which prospect will have the cutest girlfriend/sister/mom.

Also: Rakestraw -- One of NE/ATL/DET/CAR/JAX

@The Champ 

If the Jets don't make the playoffs in '24, Douglas/Saleh are gone. No doubt in my mind. A trade down for BTJ makes sense. I think he's relatively unrefined and it's questionable whether he would make an instant impact, but not all agree with that assessment.

I think the Giants would take Odunze over Nabers. As you suggested, Odunze would better diversify the WR corps, and I think the character concerns with Nabers could be a sticking point with an organization as conservative as the Giants.

There is a surprise faller or two in every draft. IMO, the most likely candidates this year are Turner, Nabers and Bowers. Guys that could go much higher than their position O/U: Murphy II, Mims, Chop, Latu.

@Mr. Bitter The Colts have been aggressive before, so that's within the realm of possibility, sure.  I still doubt that the Jets are going to go OL, but maybe Douglas has more job security than I think.  (If they do trade back to 15, that could still put them in the range of Brian Thomas Jr.)  

I agree that it's unlikely that Latham is there at 19 for the Rams, and I'm not sure that they would take more of a RT guy like Fuaga if he happened to be there.  I'm kind of going back and forth on my Rams pick with this Schrager stuff out there.  It may not be offense, but if it is, I think I might be between Thomas Jr., Mims, or Guyton, if all 3 are there.  And I do think that a trade down is a definite possibility, because Snead loves to work the board during drafts.  

@The Champ 

No doubt LT is in play for the Rams. I imagine it would be Mims or Guyton. I can't see any of Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fauga, Latham being on the board at 1.19.

I just wonder what they'll do about EDGE then. Maybe Marshawn Kneeland in the 2nd? Maybe he could play that Elephant OLB role opposite Byron Young. Chris Braswell? They really need more pass-rushing juice with no Aaron Donald and no Raheem Morris manufacturing pressure with smoke and mirrors.

I just noticed that IND's odds of drafting a TE first went from +425 to +250 overnight, while the Jets odds for drafting a TE actually went from +130 to +135, with O-line now at -105. Colts trade up for Bowers?

Just found this in the betting market regarding the Rams' first pick.  DL/Edge was the heavy favorite to be their first pick just 2 days ago, at something like -250 odds.  Then you had Schrager's comments.  Well, OL is now the -130 favorite, with DL/Edge coming in second at Even. WR is the +800 third choice, and QB is +2000 (the 6th choice).  TE comes in at +2500, if anyone thinks that Bowers could slip that far.  With Alaric Jackson on a 1-year deal (for less than $5MM) and with Joe Noteboom clearly showing he wasn't the answer as Andrew Whitworth's successor, I could absolutely see it if Snead and McVay think that this is the time to go after a potential franchise LT.  In most years, I think that any of the top 6 OL would be top-10 overall picks.  This class is just so deep, and I think that perhaps the Rams want to take advantage of it.  

One more thing:  I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.  

the biggest question going into the draft is which team will get rakestraw?

new england had some success with a late round quarterback pick from michigan about 20 years ago. for that reason, the pats will figure JJ mc carthy will become the next tom brady, and take JJ with their 1st round pick in the draft, number 3 overall.  problem is JJ will not be the next tom brady, with the lack of talent on the new england roster, JJ will be just another basket case just like mac jones. he will be more of a trey lance type, than a tom brady type.   

@dcalvertconsulting 

Bowers is a generational college TE, but I don't think he's a generational NFL prospect. He's an exciting, physical and clutch player, but there's zero evidence that he's the kind of one-of-one athlete that goes in the top 10 at a non-premium position. I know I'm alone on this, but I'm not going to go along with consensus when I just don't see it on tape. For me, his likely draft range is 12 to 21.

If I was CIN, I would draft Graham Barton or Troy Fautanu over Bowers at 1.18. Bowers won't make a lick of difference if Burrow is constantly injured. The Bengals don't value TEs much, anyway.

It's funny that your comp for Odunze is Anquan Boldin. My comp for Nabers is a fast Anquan Boldin.

Odunze would be perfect for CHI, but I think the Giants take him at 1.06. Even over Nabers.

@Mr. Bitter - Bowers is a generational talent, who will terrorize, assuming he can stay healthy.  Talent-wise BB is only behind Marvin Harrison, Jr.,  He's Kellen Winslow reincarnated.  If BB would fall to the Bengals, his addition could thrust their offense into the unstoppable category, and push them into the SB.  Don't buy into the hype for Malik Nabers, who was really a 1 year wonder.  Rome Odunze, reminds me of Anquan Boldin.  If he falls to Chicago at 9, he will make Caleb's rookie season so much easier.

All the J.J. McCarthy talk sounds like prototypical "Smoke Screen" that various agents, GMs, etc. throw out there when the draft starts to get close.  It's a fact, there are numerous sports writers who will take money to print something that's completely fabricated.  This is especially true with New York area teams where trades are proposed where those teams absolutely hose their partners and/or where other teams make moronic picks that allow favored players to drop. This year, New York Jets and New York Giants are classic examples.

@Mr. Bitter Yeah I'm with you on Penix.  Are there some concerns?  Sure.  He's an older prospect, though we aren't talking Chris Weinke or Brandon Weeden old.  He's had the two ACL injuries, but at the same time, he's a QB, not a RB or WR, and running a 4.4 certainly shows he's not a statue back there.  Are there some concerns that he doesn't operate as effectively under pressure?  Sure, but you can say that about most QB's, including guys like Jared Goff, who has been to a Super Bowl and a conference title game.  Given how important having a QB is, I think he's worth the shot for any of the QB-needy teams not picking in the top 3.  Denver, really, should take him at 12, because Nix isn't winning you 3 playoff games in the AFC.  At least Penix has that type of upside, which is why I could understand the Raiders doing it at 13.  

@The Champ 

Bo Nix at 1.12 is a fireable offense. Comically low ADOT and when forced out of that comfort zone he's observably anxious. Even at the Senior Bowl.

Some concerning transferable metrics and obviously the injury history, but Lord Almighty does Penix have an arm. Just incredible. How do you not take a chance on him in the 1st RD? Not buying the "elite supporting cast" stuff, either. Even on a woefully outclassed Indiana squad, I remember Penix giving the Buckeyes all they could handle. 

@Mr. Bitter I did see that Schrager's mock last year wasn't good, but that was awfully strong language.  So, I guess we'll see.  I agree that Denver just has to get a QB early.  Taking Nix at 12 would be really gross, however.  I'm guessing that they desperately would like to trade down, and at least if they end up taking Nix in the 20's, let's say, they will have procured another pick out of it.  I already had them trading down to 25 in my mock in a projected trade with Green Bay, but I changed the mock to them taking Nix not with the pick at 25, but with the 2nd round pick they'd get from the Packers at 41.  I believe Penix will go in the 1st, and 6 QB's in the 1st just feels like too much, when I consider everything.  

@The Champ

Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder if CHI will go O-line. Poles is a trenches guy all the way, and doing everything possible to make Caleb Williams' protection airtight will always be a good idea. It all comes down to whether they're confident that Braxton Jones' overachievement is sustainable. If they aren't, Fautanu is a dark horse at 1.09. At worst, Fautanu could be a Joe Thuney-type LG, with Jenkins moving to RG.

You're right about that ATL/CHI/NYJ cluster -- one of those teams is likely to trade out.

I seriously doubt the Jets go O-line. They like '23 3rd-rounder Carter Warren as depth. It's either Bowers or Odunze/Nabers for them. I could see NY trading UP for one of the WRs. There is no tomorrow for the Jets right now.

The Dallas Turner number is interesting, as is Latu and Verse making a late kick to close the gap on Turner at 1.08/First EDGE Drafted. Turner is very similar to Arnold Ebiketie -- perhaps ATL would prefer a more polished EDGE to complement Ebiketie. They're kinda in win-now mode with Cousins.

If DEN doesn't make a move for a QB, I could see Sean Payton liking Bowers as a quasi-Taysom Hill. Pretty sure DEN will make a move for a QB though. They've painted themselves into a corner. If they don't come out of this draft with QB1, what other options are there? Ryan Tannehill? Davis Mills? Blech. If it comes to that, they may as well trade Bolles, Sutton and Surtain and start all over.

Bowers/LAR is very intriguing. The Rams put very little stock into testing numbers and I don't think they're counting on Tyler Higbee going forward. Bowers would be a perfect complement to in-line TE Colby Parkinson in 2-TE sets.

I respect Charlie Campbell and don't doubt that he's sourced, but I think Charlie's NYJ/Bowers/Odunze take is probably just a logical deduction. With Saleh/Douglas on the hot seat, Rodgers nearly 41 and Mike Williams an injury waiting to happen, everyone kinda knows the Jets are all-in and focused on obtaining one more weapon for Rodgers.

I take Schrager's reports with a grain of salt. Check out his late mocks from last year. There were...not very accurate.

Not sure why it was stated that both of the Bucs top WRs are 30+. Sure Evans will be 31 when the regular season starts, but coming off one of his best seasons. Godwin just turned 28 in February. 

A couple of interesting player prop Over/Unders...

Dallas Turner is at 9.5, with more juice (-135) to the Over.  My mock as of now has Atlanta trading down to 11 and passing on Turner, but this would also mean that the sharps think that there's a decent chance that the Bears would pass on him, too.  (If Odunze is not there at 9, perhaps Chicago trades down, or maybe there's really something to the official 30 visits they've had with some of the top OL; maybe they'd seek a LT upgrade.) I don't see the Jets going with defense at 10, so I guess this is accounting for the possibility of each of ATL/CHI/NYJ trading back?  

I think Bowers' O/U of 12.5 is appropriate, with juice to the Under at -145.  I do think that the Jets at 10 is the earliest possible spot he can go in, so it makes sense that his # would be a little bit over that.  Denver would certainly be a possibility if they don't trade down, I still think Indy at 15 makes a lot of sense even without the athletic testing (if they don't go CB, they really want another offensive piece for Richardson), and although Duke Tobin is also an RAS guy, Cincy has lacked a big-time TE for so long that I see that as making sense.  Perhaps his floor is 19 to the Rams, especially with Schrager's eye-opener that McVay is almost guaranteed to get an offensive player with the pick.  I could see McVay using him similarly to how the 49ers use Deebo.  

Regardless of who initiated what, the fact is that the Vikings now have two 1st's THIS YEAR in an outstanding draft, and current 1st's are worth more than future 1st's.  The Vikes have enough to outbid the Giants, Broncos, and Raiders, and they are aware of the Giants, in particular, being able to offer Arizona a pick that still falls in the range of the top 3 WR.  We know Arizona is very much open to moving down.  Still think it makes all sorts of sense.  

I also still think Bowers ends up with the Jets at 10, although if he doesn't go there, it's true that he could go as low to the Bengals at 18, I think.  I buy Charlie's intel that they are targeting either he or Odunze.  The Jets are in extreme win-now mode and after the OL makeover in free agency, I simply do not see them making what amounts to an insurance pick or a pick to fill a starting slot next year with an OL.  They need IMMEDIATE help with an offensive weapon, as Mike Williams is unlikely to be close to his normal self this year.  I suppose I could understand if they traded down and then took one of the other WR's like Thomas/Mitchell/Worthy, but I don't see them going OL like Schefter and some others do.  It's not just Saleh who is on the hot seat this year; Joe Douglas could be, too.  I don't think he can afford to take a projected backup OL this year, not with their first pick when there's a premium offensive talent on the board.  And Bowers was a team captain at Georgia, which Douglas typically goes for in the 1st.  

This week MJ is saying Cards are locked into MJH.  Makes no sense for Cardinals to trade out of 4, when they have a chance to grab a generational talent, who scouts and other experts have listed as can't miss, future Hall of Famer just like his Dad, who trained him.  Last year, Arizona got too cute when they moved back.  It cost them Will Anderson, who looks like he has the Pro Bowl in his future. While I love the other 2 great WRs in this case, both are essentially 1 year wonders, draft busts.  The fan base is expecting MJH, as is Kyler.  While the GM and HC both had great years for AZ, passing on MJH is something that won't be quickly forgiven.  Knowing the Cards are locked into MJH, makes sense for the Minnesota to offer a similar deal to the Chargers at 5

...acquired that extra 1st-rounder*

It's worth noting that Adam Shefter and various MIN and HOU beats have reported that MIN didn't initiate the 1.23 trade with HOU. The Texans called MIN because they needed a 2nd-rounder to trade for Stefon Diggs. The common assumption that the Vikings are dead set on moving up has been extrapolated from the fact that they acquired that extra 2nd-rounder, but the truth is that nobody knows for sure if moving up for McCarthy/Maye is MIN's endgame. It's all speculation. The Vikings are just as likely to target Byron Murphy II at 1.11 then work the board from 1.23 for Penix.

Bowers' O/U is now at 12.5 with heavy action on the over. Shefter reported that his realistic range is the teens. A TE with questionable size/athleticism who is obviously avoiding pre-draft testing is not going in the top 10.

I still believe that JJ is going 4th overall, and that Arizona will trade back.  I got in a Twitter conversation with Mike Jurecki yesterday, and he said that Arizona would absolutely be interested in a trade back with the Vikings, especially if they can get future draft capital in addition to 11 and 23 this year.  And honestly, it makes sense, especially if they can get Minnesota's 1st or 2nd rounder next year.  They would have 11, 23, and 27 in the 1st this year in an extremely talented draft class, a pick at 35 that's very high in the 2nd, and 3 picks in the 3rd, two of which are early picks in that round.  And while there's no guarantee that they could trade back up to, say, the top 9 to get one of the top 3 WR's, they certainly would have ample draft assets to do so.  And even if they don't get one of the top 3 guys, they can plug the obvious holes they have on the roster with all these picks, and there will be good WR's in their range at 23, 27, and 35.  

I also can't shake the feeling that it would have made sense for Minnesota to get a promise from a team in the top 4 (which means Arizona, because the top 3 teams are sticking and picking), because the simple fact is that, if they are counting on making the deal at 5 with the Chargers, there's a relatively simple trade that could take place where the Giants jump to 4 to take McCarthy (or Maye if McCarthy is the shock pick at #2), which allows Arizona to still get one of the top 3 WR's.  I think Minnesota knew all this beforehand, and I think it's highly likely that Arizona is OK with trading down and getting the haul that they would undoubtedly get.  

One final thing that Jurecki said:  the Chargers would "rush to the podium" for MHJ is he's there at 5.  Not Alt, and not a trade down.  I know some don't think Harbaugh will want a premium WR, and they point to his lack of procuring a 5-star WR recruit in college, but I'd push back on that a little bit.  First off, we know that he did try to recruit MHJ to Michigan.  Second, he saw firsthand how great he was on the field against his Michigan team that was scheming to try and stop him.  And lastly, the need is just so dire.  There will still be good OL options at #37, and while that's also true for the WR's, the Chargers may believe (with good reason) that MHJ is literally the best player in the draft, and that the gap between MHJ and the WR's at 37 compared to Alt and the OL's available at 37 is greater.  

My thoughts, anyway.  Just 8 days left!  

@Warrior 

I can't see Ballard taking Bowers with zero workout numbers. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. A TE like Theo Johnson (9.99 RAS) on Day 2 seems more Ballard's style.

I think we're all overthinking the Chargers. Joe Alt is a Hortiz/Harbaugh LT if there ever was one.

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, Williams-Daniels-Maye-Harrison has been my Top 4 ever since the season ended, and I doubt anything will see me change that at this point. The McCarthy info is interesting, but I still think the Chargers make the most sense as a trade partner for the Vikings. The fear of the Giants selecting McCarthy at #6 will see the Vikings want to jump them imo. As for Bowers, well, I see his range as 10-15. Nothing against Shefter, but I've read the Jets will likely come down to Bowers or Odunze (depending on which is on the board). The Colts will end any type of Bowers slide.

@Warrior 

The ARI/MHJ chalk always made the most sense. The only way ARI moves out of range for MHJ is if they're offered 3 or 4 1st-rounders or Justin Jefferson. They way Vegas numbers are moving recently strongly suggests it's going to be 1) C. Williams 2) J. Daniels 3) D. Maye 4) MHJ.

There's buzz that McCarthy will come off the board in the 7 to 11 range, not top 6. Vegas numbers are indicating a Brock Bowers slide, too. He was a 7/8 O/U for a while, fell to even odds to be drafted top-10 over the last few days, and is now at 12.5 O/U with heavy action on the over. Adam Shefter just said he's hearing Bowers' range is now in the teens.

@The Champ In the mock draft that WalterFootball released today, he has the same thing happening with Rome Odunze (except with the Cardinals). Not sure why so many people think the Vikings will trade up to #4; trading up to #5 will cost them so much less. Plus, Albert Breer reported that the Cardinals probably won't trade out of #4 because they love Harrison that much. Sure, could be a smokescreen, but I've thought all along that Teams 1-4 would stay put. Makes no sense for the Patriots to pass on the chance at Daniels/Maye or the Cardinals to pass on landing Harrison/Nabers. 

@Mr. Bitter ha ha, nice, and of course true

@Walt

Anyone that finds the pairing of peanut butter and jelly anything but totally logical, yummy and American -- while being okay with any mint food product under their roof -- is obviously a Communist.

I think MIN would need to give ARI a king's ransom in a straight trade that moves the Cardinals out of position for MHJ (and possibly Nabers/Odunze). Three 1st RD picks MINIMUM or maybe even a deal involving Justin Jefferson.

It would make more sense for ARI if MIN could incrementally trade up to 1.04 -- something similar to the 2016 PHI/Wentz move -- acquiring 1.05 from LAC to ensure ARI gets Harrison. But we're approaching a week to Day One and there hasn't been a whisper of any movement that points toward such a scenario. I'm beginning to wonder if MIN's plan is to take Byron Murphy II at 1.11 then Penix at 1.23 (or in a small move up/down from 1.23). Penix would be a reach in the 1st RD, but if he's going to hit in the NFL, MIN would be the ideal environment for him to do so.

Trading up for Amarius Mims would be the ideal move for the 49ers. Shockingly easy movement skills at 340 lbs. Mims was made for blocking out in space in a wide zone. Instant upgrade on the right side and potential heir to Trent Williams.

ARI moving out of range for MHJ and settling for BTJ as Kyler Murray's new WR1 and a boom-or-bust 3T feels icky. I think the Cardinals will ultimately stay put, and J.J. McCarthy will come off the board in the 9 to 12 range.

Agree on Nix and Penix. Not 1st-rounders. Nix especially.

@Warrior Understood!  Yeah, I'm going to have to get DeJean back into my 1st Round after he showed he's fine at his workout.  Green Bay and Detroit certainly make sense for him, as would Arizona with a pick in the 20's.  Brad Holmes has had that Iowa pipeline, too, although you could make the argument that they need a pure outside CB a bit more.  As for Green Bay, I think DeJean is a slightly better fit there.  I have Green Bay trading up in my current mock but I most likely will scrap almost all of my trades for the Contest Mock here on the site, although I will 100% stick with my McCarthy trade up.  Regarding Verse and the Bears, I could see them targeting him but more likely via trade down.  And as you point out, the Bears don't have much draft capital after the admittedly-great #1 and #9 picks, so if they don't see a blue-chipper there at #9, it could make a lot of sense to trade down.  

@The Champ Yeah, I can't argue with any of that. 

I don't like predicting trades; I only made an exception this year because it appears blatantly obvious that the Vikings are looking to trade up. Honestly, Odunze to the Chargers felt like the safest move, as I could see him falling to #11 (as I explained) or the Chargers trading back up to get him after trading down (like the Dolphins did a few years ago with Waddle).

I know Verse might be a little high, but I could see the Bears going offense/defense like the Texans did last year with their two 1sts (all the more so when the Bears had a private visit with him). Actually, I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears fall back a few slots and select a Verse or Latu, as they only have four total picks at the moment. 

A correct pick in my eyes is accurately predicting the player-to-team, so sometimes the draft slot won't make much sense since I don't normally forecast trades on paper. I don't think DeJean will fall to #29 either, but my gut is telling me the Lions are going to go after him. Basically predicting a trade in my head, if that makes sense. Already difficult enough making mock drafts without executing trades, really only did one for JJ McCarthy because it seems like 100% the Vikings, Broncos or Raiders will jump up and nab him (and the domino effect will change accordingly).

This is seriously impressive. I can tell that you're knowledgeable of the type of prospects teams go for -- even into the mid/late rounds. Perfect example: Elijah Jones to KC in the 3rd RD. Jones is the prototypical, long Spagnuolo CB that the Chiefs usually find later in the draft. Great stuff.

The only questionable haul is IND, IMO. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. Bowers has provided no testing numbers, but I understand the need/value match. Lassiter and Estime were disappointing athletic testers. Trends change, but I can't see Ballard not coming out of Day 1 or 2 without at least one RAS monster. This is just nitpicking, though. Overall, this mock is awesome.

@Warrior Verse seems like a longshot to go in the top 10, though you can get that at +275.  Interestingly, Latu has slightly better odds to go top 10 at +250.  But yeah, in getting back to Odunze, I just can't see Chicago passing on him if he's there at 9.  Keenan Allen could just be a 1-year thing and I think they'd load up on talent for Williams.  -1800 is a really, really strong indicator that he's seen as a total blue-chip talent.  I don't think Verse is seen quite in that way.  I think that Latu might be, but the medical stuff makes him obviously risky.  Still, based on the odds that are out there on Latu (he has the second-best odds of being the first defensive player chosen, quite a bit ahead of Verse), I may have to re-think my mock that has Latu going 19th to the Rams.  I was just having a hard time slotting him somewhere ahead of that, though.  IMO, I don't see a lot of teams between 11-18 looking at edge rushers.  Perhaps Denver and Seattle, but I feel like Denver is going to trade down and look at Nix.  Seattle is a bit of a wild card since this is Schneider's first year having final say over the roster, but DL/Edge is the second choice for their pick among oddsmakers (behind OL).  

Getting back to Odunze though, I believe we will see 4 QB, 3 WR, Alt, Turner, and Bowers go top 10.  I feel much more confident that Bowers could slip out of the top 10 as opposed to Odunze, though; Bowers has Even odds of being a top 10 choice.  The only team that I think could take Bowers in the top 10 is the team at 10, the Jets, and although he's surely a great talent, he didn't really test at all, and I don't view that the same way that I view MHJ not testing.  TE isn't considered a premium position, and I could see the Jets going elsewhere, or trading down.  I do think Indy could end a possible Bowers slide at 15, but Ballard is a pretty strict RAS guy, so without testing...I don't know.  If there is a "name" player most likely to drop on draft day, I'm going with Bowers. 

@The Champ 

Yeah, I can easily see him going to the Giants, Bears or Jets (as I said in each of their write-ups). But if four QBs and both Turner & Verse go in the Top 10, Bowers or Odunze should make it to #11.

Odunze is -1800 to go in the top 10.  

"[The Titans] drafted Peter Skoronski to replace Nate Davis".  Except that Skoronski plays left guard and Nate played right.  It might seem like an insignificant detail bc "it's the Titans, so who cares?", but do a little bit of research first.

How is it possible that neither of you have a WR picked for the Browns? Or an offensive tackle/TE? I understand the need they have for defensive line due to some age issues, but this year's WR group as a best player available for the Browns makes way more sense when Cooper is on his way to 30, Moore hasn't shown anything (plus his contract is up), Jeudy who is very shaky at best, and a 2nd year player in Tillman. Also, we have one TE in Njoku, that's it. Our coach loves 2 and 3 TE sets. Jed Wills is in the final year of his rookie deal and coming off a major injury again and so is Conklin (another major injury). Dawand Jones showed promise but he plays at right tackle and also finished the year hurt (plus the Browns didn't sign any rotational tackles in free agency). While they only have 6 picks (considering they just traded another offensive lineman for the 7th round pick), and their lack of depth at tackle, TE, and WR, I don't see how they go against the grain here and not take the best available receiver considering they added depth in free agency across the entire defense. Charlie, they are loaded at safety and cornerback and it would be a minor miracle if they drafted at that position this year.

@The Champ 

I'm guessing that Sweat's ceiling is the 3rd RD now. There were already immaturity/motivation/conditioning concerns with him anyway. I just finished reading Dane Brugler's Beast last night, and his analysis of Sweat based on what he's hearing is not flattering. He now has Sweat as a 4th-rounder. Who knows though -- it only takes one team. (*ahem* BENGALS)

Yeah, street racing and the inevitable hit-and-run seems to be all the rage with the kids right now. It's a real problem in my city. So unbelievably stupid.

@Mr. Bitter I added your analysis about the Rams taking older, more seasoned prospects to my blurbs in both rounds in this mock.  I would add that we've even seen that when they had Goff at QB.  I changed it up and now have them taking Latu at 19 and Sweat at 52; I'll be interested to see if Sweat drops even further after the DWI thing.  But hey, at least he didn't crash his car and leave the scene of the accident and get other people injured, amirite?  

@Thom0909 I don't think anyone else is try to move up there.

Five teams NEED a QB:  Chicago, Washington, New England, Denver, and Minnesota...and New England could (should?) hold off and build their team.

The Raiders DO NOT need a QB this year.  They signed Minshew and liked what O'Connell did last year.

The Giants would like to get a new QB, but they are stuck with Jones for at least another year, and who knows, with some better blocking and receivers, he might not be nearly as bad.  They could probably wait a round or two and pick up Nix or Rattler.

Miami MAY trade Tua to Denver (a better fit) or Minnesota (less likely) for their pick, and then reach for Penix (but at least he's a better fit than Tua).  Without a trade, Miami is stuck forever at 10-7 or 11-6 at best.

The only problem here is the reasoning for pick 1.06. If Plan A fails, then Schoen/Daboll won't be around to pick another QB in 2025.

@The Champ 

I think 1.19 will be Verse or Latu. Older, polished prospects are what the Rams are looking for during the Stafford window.

@Mr. Bitter I mean, if both Verse and Murphy are on the board at 19 for the Rams, it would be like Christmas for them.  Hell, I could even see them taking Latu if they are confident about his medicals.  

I see we both have the Chargers taking Harbaugh's spirit animal at 2.37.

For the Rams, I'm guessing they'll move Kobie Turner off the nose and into his natural 3T role. I could see EDGE at 1.19 and maybe a 5T like Ruke Orhorhoro at 2.52.

@42yardline 

1 KC

2 BAL

3 HOU

4 BUF

5 CIN

Then it's the Jets in a scrum with JAX, IND, MIA, CLE, PIT, LAC and maybe LV for the last two playoff spots...and that's IF Rodgers, Hall, M. Williams and T. Smith stay healthy. Long odds.

My biggest fear is that the Jets are a year too late with the all-in approach. It should have began the minute they signed Rodgers and decided to put all of their eggs in that basket. Now Rodgers is coming off a major injury and approaching 41, an age when even the greatest of the all-time great QBs (save for Brady) saw their performance fall off a cliff.

At least there's YouTube, where I can find comfort in Al Toon highlight videos and watching Matt Snell run wild over the Colts for the hundredth time in SBIII.

Solid season Walt! Been reading your stuff for YEARS! Keep it up :)

Gridiron Grins: Unique and Funny Football T-Shirts

That DAL/Fashanu trade up is spot on.

Walter Football's Team Free Agent Grades section states that if Tyron Smith and Mike Williams are healthy the Jets "have a great shot at the Super Bowl." WHAT??  The Jets will be lucky if they have a winning record.

First of all, Tyron Smith is rarely healthy, and Williams has an ACL which everyone knows is a 2 year injury before a player returns to his normal production.

I hate to say this about Bitter's team (since he brings so much solid analysis and knowledge to the comments section of this website), but the NYJ, although improved, are nowhere near the Super Bowl discussion this year.

 

Great mock.  Like the trades, reasoning and most importantly the compensation.        

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@The Champ Thank you! In my scenario, I would imagine some team would leap back into round 1 to draft Penix Jr. But I agree that there is so much incredible talent in this draft that some very quality prospects will definitely be available for second round.

@jtrapp1962 

Maybe they're trading to get in front of another team that was trying to move up. NYG gets offers from multiple teams.

Agreed.  The MIN/NYG trade is not plausible.  The only reason for MIN to trade up would be to get above NYG, the only team above them who MIGHT draft a QB that high.

Dixon before Rakestraw and TJ Tampa (4th round????) is unlikely.