Site Comments
18 Comments (last 3 days):
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@Bitter "Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up" Its only a matter of time before he implodes. I felt good about him VS Saints and even thought he was the deciding factor based on taking care of the ball, but joke was on me when he went 395-2-0. |
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Looking ahead: DAL is bad but Lawrence, Bland, Lewis & Cooks are due back soon. I hope they get worked in DC (speaking of DC - Quinn revenge game?). Side note... how'd DAL let Quinn, Armstrong & Biadasz go? 3 great pieces to a div rival. Thinking of betting DAL in the near future - maybe vs DeVito |
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@Karensman Nick Chubb is a month shy of his 29th birthday. That's old relative to RBs, and Chubb is a very old 29. Last season's leg injury was vomit-inducing, and he had an equally gross leg injury in college. Chubb is the heart and soul of the team - so his return has some short-term "good vibes" value - but he just doesn't look the same. Given his age/mileage, I think it would be a miracle if he ever will. As for Stafford - yeah, everyone in the NFL is playing hurt to some degree, but not all injuries are equal. From what I've gathered, Stafford's main issue is his back - and back issues are often career-killers. Stafford is approaching 37. He's still a high-level QB, but It just feels like he's on borrowed time. |
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@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I haven't been watching the Browns games close enough to see how Chubb is playing. If I remember correctly didn't he suffer a catastrophic knee injury last year. The original projection was that they hoped that he would be able to play sometime this year ? What they didn't mention was what level of performance he would reach. Serious injuries take a long recovery time just to be able to play, usually at much less than maximum performance as well as the speed, maneuverability, and recovery period from a physical game all becoming factors. One of the toughest parts of handicapping football injuries is trying to determine whether a player is fully recovered. Most players come back early and are shot up with pain pills that masks the pain but doesn't enhance performance. I'm also leaning towards the Bears but refuse to bet them because I'm a lifelong fan. [ I also hate being at a huge coaching disadvantage ] Also as far as injuries : you always keep in mind that Stafford may be more injured than we think. Doesn't that go for a lot of QB's ? I know Stafford was really brutalized when he played behind a horrible OL in Detroit all those years. When he got a chance to play behind a quality line in LA he won the Super Bowl but hasn't seemed to reach that level of his first year in LA [ mostly because of O-Line ] . |
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@carettirichard Once Doug Pederson is fired, I'm guessing JAX will sell the fan base on the idea that Pederson's awful coaching, a bad O-line and injuries are what have been holding Lawrence back. Pretty sure he gets a fresh start in '25. He just turned 25. I don't think JAX is a long ways from being competitive. (Especially in the AFC South.) They have some talented young building blocks at important positions (WR1, EDGE1 and 2, CB1). With better coaching and some O-line and DT upgrades they could rebound in '25. |
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@Baird The rain/wind should be advantageous for PIT. It only strengthens the Boswell>Hopkins angle. I think Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up for CLE. Harris/Warren were biting off chunks vs. BAL, so running on CLE should be no problem. I'm liking CHI as a home dog. Very often, mid-season coordinator firings are just a case of somebody taking the fall for organization-wide problems, but in the case of Shane Waldron, I think he really was the problem. The Bears should improve going forward, and I don't trust Sam Darnold in this spot. |
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@Karensman - I can see that happening. I do think the BAL game was CLE's big one but this definitely has a playoff feel for them, at home & prime time. Plus letdown for PIT on a short week. A little help for the refs may be all they need. I'm keeping an eye on the weather; it should be windy, maybe rain. |
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@Mr. Bitter - early leans? Still going through the match ups and will throw some thoughts out to get your take. So far, I find myself making points for/against both sides of most game. Hopefully tomorrow's injury report helps. With that said, I started a few teasers last night... |
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@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I watched some of the Browns game and I thought that you guys were in good shape going into the 4th quarter. I have a question about this week though : Doesn't it feel like this week is their Super Bowl game ? At home against a bitter rival, on national tv ? Probably their most important game the rest of the year. It might be time to take out their frustrations on the Steelers who seldom play well when their favored. I have to be careful about saying this but the league [ and by extension the referees ] hope that it will be a close game and go right down to the end. The steelers could easily win but not cover.
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Cowboys got nothing to lose might as well throw Trey Lance out there, if he's worse than Cooper Rush than at least they can lose more games and get a high pick.
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@Baird Yeah, you're right. Hopkins was pretty good for a while after replacing York, but he's gone right back to being the same bad kicker he was before coming to CLE. Meanwhile, Boswell is a machine. Even if Myles Garrett dominates vs. PIT (which he usually does), the game likely comes down to ST. Betting CLE is probably getting too cute. Any early leans? |
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@Mr. Bitter - well said! Freakin Hill & definite letdown spot for PIT. My main worry is Hopkins. His 51-yd miss wasnt too bad, but the 30 yard miss (penalties) & miss again from 20 something is wild. In a game that should be close, Hopkins may be the deciding factor.
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@Baird Freakin' Taysom Hill, man. Feels like he's been around since 2002, and he's one of those Mormon mission BYU grads...how is he not like 47 years old? Spends most of his time injured, only popping up to go nuclear when it ruins NO's draft position and absolutely screws me in betting and DFS tournaments. I wish he'd just stop. Just piss-poor special teams and overall tackling from CLE. Rare quiet game from Myles Garrett. I still think CLE was the right side, although I probably underrated the absence of JO-K. He would have come in handy in limiting Hill. I'm probably a glutton for punishment, but I'm sniffing around CLE +4 at home vs. PIT. Feels like a trap game for the Steelers. |
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Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) |
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How is nick nash not even on the radar. He reads defenses so well for a wide receiver since moving from qb. Watch this kids tape or just watch how he played against boise st yesterday.
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If the Jags land the first pick they most likely trade down, but does anyone else think that they should at least consider drafting Shedeur and trading Tlaw? They’re a long ways away from being competitive anyways, might be easier to build around a rookie contract qb than a massively overpaid one. Even with how expensive and disappointing Lawrence has been, I think he still has solid trade value in this qb-hungry league. Food for thought
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I’ve been coming to this site for about the last 15 years or so. I do believe that this is the very first time my Lions topped your power rankings. LETS GOOOO!!! Truthfully I can’t see this team losing any time soon. Not at least until the first seed is clinched, but even then I can’t see Dan Campbell trotting out the backups. Walt, how likely do you think it is that the Lions run the table and go 16-1? |
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@Baird Keep in mind that when I handicap the Rams, the possibility that Stafford is more injured than anyone realizes is always baked in. |
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@Baird As a Rams fan, how do you like their WC chances? I'm having trouble getting a read on them. Unprepared and mistake-prone was what I expected from MIA, not the Rams. Just feels like there's some angle I'm missing that might have them overvalued right now. Youth? So many of their key contributors are 1st/2nd year guys... I think the Havenstein injury could be a real problem vs. the Pats. Keion White and Deatrich Wise are a quietly dominant tag team at LDE. |
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@Baird Everyone is acting as if ATL winning the NFC South is a forgone conclusion. Even with ATL's sweep of TB, I'm not so sure about that. ATL's next three: @DEN/LAC/@MIN TB's next three: @NYG/@CAR/LV The Bucs could easily pull ahead of ATL in the NFC South as soon as early December. |
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A two way player going first in an NFL Draft that I felt was going to be centered around the Sanders family would be pretty fitting.
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@KM what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night As a (an before A doesnt sound right). As uh Anaheim Rams fan, I teased 6U+ on MIA +8.5 with the understanding that I have 3U on LAR > 6.5 wins. I lost 1U on the over - same as tonight. |
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@Karensman Simple for me. CHUBB preseason came 3 weeks ago vs CIN, then he battled 2 great run Ds in BAL (#1 ypc) & LAC #1 Rush TD allowed. He should keep the chains moving vs #31 ypc D (Saints @ 5.1). Carr had all the time in the world to throw w/ ATL zero pass rush (I watched the 30 min condensed replay & it was obvious), coach firing, blocked FG and missed FGs. TNF would normally be a worry, but not off a bye. I think the trajectory of CLE since Watson injury, SB vs BAL and letdown VS a good LAC team + BYE is a perfect setup for this week. Public has not caught up - THIS IS NOT D. WATSON Browns. JO-K is a big loss though. Like I said, Chubb should keep the chains moving, Tillman is coming on strong, Moore is getting more rec, Carr wont have time, Njoku is healthy and CLE has 1 small chance for playoffs (plus pride?). I think Walt is good w/ 24-17 final. I'm thinking further apart. GL |
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@Mr.Bitter - "TB is still undervalued" |
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@Karensman Betting the Browns is icky, but a few things: Stefanski is a solid coach, IMO. No coach would have succeeded in the situation management forced upon him with the Watson signing. I don't know much about Darren Rizzi, but I know this: Teams almost always get a pronounced one-game bump upon an in-season coaching change. Even with that bump, the Saints still would have lost at home to an obviously flat ATL squad had it not been for some last-minute clock mismanagement by the Falcons and three missed Younghoe Koo FGs. Like Marquez Valdez-Scantling's stat line, that victory was an obvious fluke. Kamara may be the best offensive weapon in this matchup, but beyond him, it's crap like MVS, Foster Moreau and some guy called Mason Tipton for the Saints. I'll take Njoku, a healthy Chubb/Ford RB tag team, and the Tillman/Jeudy/Moore WR trio over what the Saints are trotting out any day. (Small sample size, but since CLE traded Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman is second only to Ja'Marr Chase by many WR performance metrics.) The Saints - already down C Erik McCoy - may also be without the left side of their O-line for this one. The NO offensive depth chart is a disaster. As for MIA - I'm not sure how legit Monday's win was. Not sure if a game vs. a team as untalented and poorly-coached as LV will provide us any clarity, either. Kinda wait-and-see with MIA. Tua isn't pushing the ball downfield, Tyreek is obviously hurt, and the Austin Jackson injury means a RT Kendall Lamm vs. LDE Maxx Crosby glaring mismatch. A Raiders win wouldn't shock me, but I'm not touching that game. |
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Ouch ! Thanks to Baird & Mr. Bitter for the quick response. I'm also aware that Walt thinks this game may be his best bet. I guess that I don't disagree but really don't like either team. I also don't know about the coaching situation. Is the interim coach for NO any good ? [ Probably unlikely ] . Is the coach for Cleveland solid/good ? [ I think he is overrated and not as good as most people think ] . Who's the best offensive player on the field ? Alvin Kamara. No other major weapons on either team. Who's the best QB ? Dennis Carr [ not saying much ]. If I believe correctly wasn't Winston the backup for Carr when he was injured and missed some games last year ? Like I said you guys are probably correct, I 'm just uncomfortable on being on either side of what I consider bad teams. Out of curiosity : what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night ? Was that a complete one off or are they finally starting to play up to expectations ?
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@Karensman - I'm w Bitter as my top play is CLE. I was lucky to tease them before SNF @ +8.5 and continued to add at +7. I have 10.6U on teasers with CLE getting a TD+. I'm going to hit the ML on Sat and will prob go 5-8 units getting near even money. |
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@Karensman Almost forgot: KC/BUF - Leaning KC but probably just gonna sit back and enjoy. The media consensus seems to be that KC has smoke-and-mirrored their way to 9-0 and their fun stops Sunday. Fair, but I wonder if that narrative is just enough blood in the water for Reid/Mahomes. Also not liking BUF possibly down Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid in an all-hands-on-deck game. |
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@Karensman Regarding the CIN/LAC spread - I think bettors are still leaning hard into the "this is a must-win for the Bengals" angle. It's an obvious and fair take, but it can be argued that CIN has been close to (or even in) must-win territory for weeks now, yet they continue laying eggs. Expecting this week to be the week the Bengals suddenly flip the switch is starting to feel like definition of insanity from a betting perspective. Joe Burrow is playing as well as can possibly be expected, yet CIN keeps coming out flat and losing. The CIN O-line sucks, the defense is a one-man show (Hendrickson), and Zac Taylor just can't light a fire under his team while being a miserable in-game manager. All the evidence says that CIN just isn't very good, yet bettors are falling into the trap of valuing them by what they should be instead of what they are. My top play is CLE. I think the Browns win SU - maybe even comfortably - so getting any points is a gift. The Saints used up all their "We finally fired our crappy coach!" mojo last week and will come down to earth. Matchup wise, all signs point to a "Good Jameis" game (CLE offense getting healthy, gutted NO secondary) and domination from Myles Garrett (injured/weak NO tackles). I'm passing on BAL/PIT. Always tight rivalry game that could easily hinge on some in-game injury or suspect calls (as you suggested). However, I'm not comfortable with the recent Russell Wilson hype and could see him fade a bit, not unlike Justin Fields' early-season rise and fall. Just a hunch - not bettable just yet. |
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After taking a week off, I'm back to make a fool of myself. I have 2 teams I like this week, so I'm quite interested in both Baird & Mr. Bitter's top play this week to fill out my Round Robin Parlay. [1] I'm on the Steelers + 3 at home in a big divisional rivalry game. I assume both teams had circled this game earlier in the year and I expect maximum effort from both teams. Although the home field edge is not as strong as it used to be, it still accounts for something [ referee bias ? ] Anyway, I probably would have played the Steelers at - 1 and maybe - 2 so getting + 3 is a bonus. [2] Why are the Chargers favored by only 1 1/2 against the Bengals at home ? This is a huge Coaching Mismatch. The Bengal defense quit in the second half against the Ravens last week and I prefer to wager on the team with a better running game and a much superior defense. Once again, I would have taken the Chargers up to - 3, so 1 1/2 somewhat reduces the chance of a backdoor cover. There are a lot of games that I wouldn't touch this week as there are some matchups and lines that don't make sense. I hate playing big favorites and I hate playing bad teams. KC - Buff should be a great game to watch but I'm not betting it and I think the line is right and I don't see any advantage for either team. Best of luck to all this week. |
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I would agree with Walter on his Bengals pick; however, I prefer the Chargers' coach to the Bengals' coach quite a bit. For example, it was inexplicable to me why the Bengals did not attempt a single field goal against the Ravens when they had a multitude of opportunities. Had they done so, I believe they would have won.
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One question that keeps popping up for me, and I feel like I missed something. Many times when Jordan Love's name is mentioned, you preface it with "No Cookie". What does that mean?
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Only 2 problems with this mock are the Titans would definely move up for a different QB rather then pick carsom beck whos a 2nd rounder at best in the top 10. Jaguars and patriots would likely be teams trying to move down. Also Tyler Warren is definitely going in the 1st round.
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Cardinals have clapped some of the best defenses, and lately even some of the offenses in the NFL.
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@Baird You got lucky with KC - I got lucky with TB. I'll take it, but - honestly - I stuck with my "TB is still undervalued" angle that had been profitable all season one week too long. SF should have won that game by double digits. I still think the Bucs could be a thorn in other teams' sides down the stretch, but I'm off them for a while (especially with the Wirfs injury). SF looks poised to get a lather going, but I still don't believe they're quite what they're cracked up to be. Placekicker is a serious problem, the right side of their O-line is weak and that defensive depth chart is thoroughly mediocre beyond Warner and Bosa. They feel like a playoff upset victim waiting to happen. IND was my least-confident play. I knew there was a good chance that Flacco may have already fallen off the cliff, and it appears he has. I mistakenly ignored that hunch while leaning too hard into the BUF look-ahead angle. BUF is just so well-coached. McDermott/Allen seem to have a poor man's Belichick/Brady thing going where they can plug anybody into auxiliary roles and just keep rolling along. I just flat-out whiffed on the Jets (and Cardinals). AGAIN. Both teams have been radioactive for me all year, yet I keep flushing money down those toilets. As a Jets fan, I should have known that they won't beat a decent team until it's later in the season and it's in a situation that will knock them out of draft position to finally get a franchise QB. It's just what they do. Still not sold on ARI. Their success isn't sustainable given the talent level on that defensive depth chart. I'll die on that hill. They won't finish ahead of the 49ers or Rams, and I'll very likely be heavy on SEA in Week 12. Yeah, Conner is RB2 on my fantasy team and I figured his numbers would begin to even out, especially with Benson inevitably getting more run regardless of game script. Your CLE lean looks rock solid. It's common for teams to get that initial bump from an in-season coaching change, especially when the axed coach was thoroughly hated and the interim coach is a likeable rah-rah type like Pierce/Rizzi. The Saints will undoubtedly come right back down to earth. Taliese Fuaga was injured and Trevor Penning sucks in pass pro; the Falcons simply don't have rushers capable of taking advantage, but Myles Garrett will take turns on both edges and wreak havoc. Always appreciate your input and congrats on a nice week. GL going forward. |
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The Texans were dreadful against the Lions, and Detroit gifted them with five turnovers. Everybody is going to be saying that the Texams should have won, even though Detroit heavily outgained them.
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@Mr. Bitter - good call on TB/HOU covers (even w Collins out). You guys were spot on w/ Ind for a while, but BUF is for real. I do like IND next week knowing Jets season is done. Wish I stuck to my HUGE bet idea on AZ. Oh well, teasers still came through. Hope you made money this week. I got lucky w/ KC and lost a few on Conner. Overall +9.4 today Looking ahead - teasing CLE 8.5 vs Saints. I looked back to Antonio Pierce in 2023 after they showed up vs NYG |
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Walt ive tried to stick with you, and i have for a long time. But im sorry, you are terrible, im giving up on you. Jesus , youd make a FORTUNE fading your picks
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PIT, IND win SU. LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts. Feeling TB and HOU covers. Happy hunting, gentlemen. |
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@carettirichard I retract the “much better competition” statement because levis was playing SEC football. What i meant was Howard is playing much better against similar elite competition
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Also the vanderbilt kid needs some love, he’s one hell of a competitor and a gunslinger
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Why isn’t will howard taken more seriously as a prospect? I haven’t watched much OSU football but each time i do i come away impressed by this kid. The size is legit, he’s one of the biggest dudes on the field. But he seldom he uses that size. He can extend plays with his legs and throw on the run, make some big time throws. I think he’s a better prospect than Will Levis was two years ago, albeit Levis has the stronger arm. But Howard is up against much better competition. I see him as a late first to mid second day prospect. I bet there are teams that would like to develop him and possibly make him a competent starter.
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@Walt - You have PIT as a great teaser leg (me too), but no bet? You also have MIN as a top play @ -7. Why not PIT+9 paired w/ MIN-1 for a few? Cmon dude, add some PIT and enjoy the fresh D-line vs a rookie QB w/ PHI on Thurs. Also SF 0 &/or LAC -1.5. Seems like a great weekend.
PIT +3 (1.2 to win 1) PIT+9/LAC-1.5 (2.2 to win 2) PIT+9 spread out (5.6 to win a mix) Golfing tomorrow so prob wont post again & felt like I'd get my notes out to revisit Sun AM. Teaser leans... ATL +2.5 - hated this game w/ coach firing, home field and div - felt like Saints. BUT something tells me this means a lot to ATL to fully clinch div (DEN & bye next). *The game I was looking for last week was NO/CAR where -7 teased to -1 failed. Maybe I'm Bitter this week PIT +9 SF - LAC -1.5 PHI -1 (why does this worry me, its Copper Rush) MIN -1 KC-2 Sorry for all the posts - notes to keep me honest & appreciate feedback. GL |
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Odds on J.Bosa sack? I cant find any Sack in week 1 & 2. Only played 2 snaps in week 3 and got hurt. Played limited week 8/9 and now has the best mismatch of the week vs Watson. |
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AZ - I really wanted to like AZ this week (and still do a bit going into their bye), but my hope of CHI showing up last week failed and we have a desperate NY team coming to town. I'm on the fence on betting AZ ML, but have a few +7.5-8 on teasers and love James Conner in this w/ Mosley out. Conner 80+ & 1TD (1U to win 1.97) Hoping the first hits and I freeroll the second. GL |
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On what planet is Tyler Warren the best Tight end in the draft, not in your first 2 round??????????
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Walt mu upset special- the Cowboys upset the iggles on Sunday afternoon at Jerry 's World- expect the Cowboys to play keep away- keeping hurts on the sideline by running the football and winning the time of possession. If the Mike McCarthy commit to the run game and have Rush throw 25 times- Cowboys will have a chance. If the Cowboys defense can keep the iggles offense with 3 and outs and force hurts yo commit a turnover. This will help Parsons to feast on hurts- especially have if Cowboys has the lead
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@Walt Wasn't there something about betting on bad teams esp vs good teams. Jax to win vs Min? and to a lesser degree Ind to cover vs Buf NO to cover vs Atl I agree with most of your insights but I think your validating some story angles a little too much. In the end, these good teams will just not allow it to happen |
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Can't see the Deadphins drafting a QB, when they have all that money invested in Tua Concussionvaiola
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TBF, pretty much every corner and a few linebackers have limited Harrison JR. This year, that's not all that impressive.
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@carettirichard DET's coaching staff is operating at another level right now. I thought the Hutchinson injury would take the wind out of their sails...nope. I thought the Branch ejection would swing the game in GB's favor...nope. DET doesn't do excuses. Such a tough-minded team. |
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The Lions manhandled the Packers in Lambeau without Jameson Williams (suspension) and without Brian Branch for most of the game (ejected). Statement win. Best team in the NFC and it isn’t particularly close.
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I think walt should get a blindfold and 6 darts and the weekly football schedule and let the darts fly. You might have more than 1 winning week. And the best is i pay for this service. I think that helen keller would have done better. so my new formula is to just bet the opposite |
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Lucky for the push with the crappy Titans, Walt. Is there anything more "Titans gonna Titan" than Rudolph fumbling the snap at the 5 yard line with a chance to close the game in OT? When are you going to follow your own advice and stop betting on garbage teams?
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Carson Beck is literally dogwater, he should go lower than where Stetson Bennett went in 2023. You cannot tell me with a straight face that this guy is an NFL QB after watching him play. He's also hideous but that's not really relevant for scouting purposes
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@Mr. Bitter I appreciate the feedback. I dont like the AZ game this week either - just hoping CHI shows up so AZ looks bad and the line next week is a little softer w NYJ coming off a win. You could be on to something with the BUF motivation angle, but I expect more of a letdown to come from them next week (after MIA & before KC/bye). Im w you on PHI and love it on teasers @ -1.5; however, there is also the letdown angle as they are coming off a blowout win and have DAL/WAS next. Plus Hines-Allen vs whoever is at LT is a prob. GL today |
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Three team par with: Denver +9.5, Indy +5.5, Chiefs -9.5. As it turns out, all of these games are easily timed spaced between each other, makes for easy progressive hedge plays as I go along. Risking 1 unit to win 6 units. Three team 10 point Total teaser with: DN/Balt game OVER 36.5, Wash/NYG game Under 54 at this time, holding off to see if I can get a half point involved as ties in my ten point teaser constitute a loss. NOR/CAR OVER 33.5. Risking 1 unit to win less. Finally, a 4 team 13 point teaser with: Packers +15.5, Raiders +20, Wash +9, Chargers +12. Again, holding off on all whole number lines to see if I can get half point lines. Risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit. GLTA tomorrow and Monday.
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@Baird I think BUF is most likely to be the weird one that loses. The Bills are no doubt the better team with better coaching, but the Dolphins just plain score a lot of points when Tua is under center. This is also must-win time for MIA, whereas BUF is so comfortably ahead in the AFC East that there may already be a need to manufacture motivation. The true QUESTIONABLE tags for Amari Cooper and Christian Benford are also concerning if you're on BUF. I can't back ARI with any confidence, even with all of the O-line problems and defensive injuries for CHI. The ARI defense is just so untalented. While their 4-4 record is commendable considering their SOS, it still feels like a flimsy 4-4. That defense will start hemorrhaging points at any moment. Tough slate. I could go either way on most of the games this weekend. The most solid bets are ATL -3 and PHI -7.5, IMO. I'm kinda liking CLE as a home dog and definitely liking DET as a road favorite. (DET is a tough-minded team built to control the LOS, so the "Goff/dome team" angle as overblown, IMO. DET could easily dominate the trenches in what is shaping up to be a slop fest, especially with GB center Josh Myers DOUBTFUL.) |
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What am I missing this week? It feels like the perfect TEASER weekend which also feels wrong. There has to be something I'm missing.
I loved DAL +9, but all the OUT injuries have me spooked (not a Halloween pun). ATL is the rightish side, but +3 isnt enough after the TB game and neither is DAL +9. I still like Dak/Lamb vs 0 pass rush (plus best kicker in the league **prob dif in the game indoors) and dare I say Dowdle starting. But I went too big on DAL early in the week and now regret it. Learning leasons every week. Leans with all current info... Buf - (is this the weird one that loses? No way, maybe. Why only 6 & not 8.5?) IND +11.5 PHI -1.5 Dal +8.5-9 (now regret), adding ATL +3 to slightly balance Saints -1 (why is this stuck at 7 w/ Carr & Hill back and Young starting? Hubbard kills it? IDK) KC -2.5 LAR +4.5 (AJ Barner DK $2600) Secondary Mix Den 15.5 & Bal 3.5 - who has Den beat? Lets not forget Bal went to KC (great D is my point) and lost by a Likely inch. Of course TNF is the issue - wait, doesnt DEN have KC next? Mix LVR +13 & CIN -1 - hate this game but trying to middle. Mix Chi/AZ *If AZ faces 100% of Chi's D (like a tough game to get 20 points) I'm going huge ML on AZ vs NYJ the next week, before their bye and before SEA, X, SEA. **Prob - lead in the Div has to have AZ pumped this week (Hail Mary has CHI deflated? Or chewed out & focused?, 2nd road game) Please give insight on CHI VS AZ cause I want to bet HUGE on AZ ML vs NYJ next week. LAR/SEA > 42 LAC/CLE < 48.5 NE/TEN < 44 I love this week teaser-wise which cant be a good thing. WAS vs NYG?? GL-Baird |
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Yes the Jets won. But a "fumble" (dropped ball at the 1), and a couple of other early touchdouwn cellies around the 5 to 10 yard line that could have resulted in other dropped balls. If I'm the coach, I'm benching anyone (including Adams) who doesn't secure that goddam ball until it's over the goal line.
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Walt, in last week's recap you lamented betting on garbage teams, and that you weren't going to do it anymore. But here in the first Sunday game of the week, you plan to bet the garbage Titans. I understand the Patriots might suck worse, but still... As a Dodgers fan, when we were trailing the Padres in the final series of the season, my buddy said, "Remember, Padres gonna Padre," and he was right, they imploded. In the World Series, the same could be said about the Yankees: "Yankees gonna Yankee." It's no different in football, which you astutely pointed out last week. I'm not one of your haters, Walt. I follow you and bet with you every week for good and bad. Here, the Patriots are gonna Patriot, and the Titans are gonna Titan. How can you justify a bet, going against your statement just last week, when it seems you're just hoping one of these teams (Titans) sucks less?
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Even before Collins got injured, the Texans offense had plenty of issues. The Jets managed to expose a lot of them, sacking Stroud a total of 8 times! Yes, the Texans outgained the Jets, but a lot of those yards came in garbage time. With that being said, Stroud only went 11 for 30, so the offensive line isn’t the only issue. |
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Surprised we haven't seen anything from Walt regarding Stefon Diggs being out for the year.
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I can't believe the Jet's aren't going to find a way to string their fan base on a little be longer. Losing tonight would be too easy as far as NFL fandom torture goes.
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@Karensman IND/MIN jumped out at me too - especially with the Darrisaw injury - but I've hesitated knowing the Vikings might get Blake Cashman and T.J. Hockenson back. There's serious potential for a "last team with the ball wins" game with Flacco replacing Richardson, and it feels like I'm usually on the wrong side of those games. I saw the Richardson benching coming about the time he checked himself out of the game vs. HOU, and just went with the OVER on 45.5. Could easily clear 50, IMO. I'm going to continue to fade the Jets until it's not profitable. Every "Which Teams Will Turn Their Season Around In The Second Half?" article I've read this week has the Jets at the top of the list, which tells me that the public still can't wrap their head around the idea that the Jets are no more than exactly what they appear to be. There's still meat on that bone. The (hostage) situation with NYJ/Rodgers is similar to CLE/Watson was in that everything is predicated on the QB holding up his end of the bargain, otherwise everything falls apart. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign all of Rodgers' BFFs and every 2019 NFC Pro Bowler - if Rodgers is drastically compromised by age/injury (which is becoming more apparent by the week) then the season is lost, especially with Rodgers apparently resisting treatment in favor of "cayenne and water' home treatment. (Wish I was kidding.) |
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Originally I only liked 2 games this week. There is no way that N.O. should be favored by 7 over another NFL team with a rookie QB on the road and the league's worst head coach. However, I can't stomach taking the points with the Panthers because of their overall ineptness and muddled QB situation. I liked the Colts vs. the Vikings, anything over 3 points is a must play on the Colts. But I was reluctant to wager on Richardson who can run but not throw. Then this afternoon I find out that Carr is expected back for N.O. making a Panthers wager lose any value and turning it into a 'no play'. And the Colts announced they were turning to Flacco at QB instead of Richardson. That instantly turns the Colts into a must wager - I agree with Walter, just a little surprised it's not his play of the month but it is still be early in November with a lot of football to play. I have a great deal of respect for Steichen, one of the sharpest new coaches whose teams always seem to overachieve or at least put forth a consistent effort. The move to Flacco tells me that he thinks that the Colts are serious playoff contender and that the organization owes it to the players that the team is willing to do what it takes to win. Richardson may or may not be the answer to the future [ I tend to doubt that he is ] but Flacco gives them a much better chance to win now. I'm not sure that Steichen is a better coach than the Vikings but he is every bit as good and I would not expect him to make a bone headed mistake. Go Colts !
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@Mr. Bitter the only explanation I have is that Walter is from the Philadelphia area (if I remember correctly) so anytime he praises the Eagles it gets interpreted as a hometown bias. But like you said, those of us who have been here a while know that Walt has no Eagles bias. As recently as last year he was knocking them, and that was before they started falling apart. What you’re saying about the Bucs makes sense and I agree. 27 is ridiculously low for a team that is objectively very good at full strength. Yes, they’re nowhere near full strength right now but there’s no indication that they won’t return to full strength before the season is over. Plus they have the benefit of playing in the NFC South. They could easily finish 9-8 and sneak into the playoffs again, and they could be a tough matchup for whoever sees them in the first round. |
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@carettirichard Yeah, I've been here forever and I've never seen evidence of Eagles bias. It's weird that it keeps getting mentioned. I'm guessing the rash of injuries on defense and at WR is Walt's main reason for TB's low ranking, and that's fair. Still, having the Bucs at 27 - below CLE, JAX and NO - is nuts. The Bucs have beaten DET, WAS and PHI for chrissakes. They'll likely drop their next two (KC, SF), but their schedule to close out the season is Charmin-soft. (NYG, CAR twice, LV, NO, DAL) Assuming they get Evans and a few DBs healthy for the stretch run, the Bucs are still a competitive team capable of a winning record. |
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@christinaolive I think the Bucs are heavily underrated too but it’s not because Walter is upset over the Eagles game. I have been following this site for over a decade now, Walt treats the Eagles like any other team. In fact I have seen him trash the Eagles at times when the mainstream media was drooling over them. I’d like to know why he’s so low on the Bucs but that’s not it.
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@SadisticNobility the Lions were “heavily outgained” because they consistently had short fields due to turnovers and great kick returns. They capitalized on those short fields with touchdowns. It is true that the Lions didn’t play their best game, and yet they still won by 38 points. You take that observation to mean they’re overrated? Seems to me like you’re box score watching rather than tuning into the game. The Lions dominated them in every way, and it could’ve been even worse
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The Titans heavily outgained the Lions, with it not being a byproduct of garbage time. People are going to be going on about how the Lions managed to score 52 points against the Titans defense, when the stats around the board for Detroit’s offense weren’t impressive in the slightest. I can’t tell if this suggests that the Lions are overrated or if the Titans are highly underrated right now.
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Literally have zero games that I am willing to play straight up (in a 3 team par of course,) so a big ol' teaser is the play for me today. 5 team 14 pointer with: Lions +1, Ravens +6.5, Chiefs +5, Broncos +3 and holding out for a half point line in the Pittsburgh game. By game time Monday one way or the other, I will tease Pittsburgh. Risking 1 unit. GLTA.
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@Karensman Cousins is a good play. Murray has become too unpredictable. ATL/TB has definite shootout potential, even without Godwin/Evans. The Falcons have no pass rush and no Justin Simmons means more room over the middle/downfield. I have a hunch the Bucs paste together an effective passing game with swings to R. White (he's much better in that role than as a rusher) and a ton of stuff over the middle to Otton, McMillan and maybe even Sterling Shepard. (Shepard was Mayfield's security blanket at Oklahoma. They have history.) GL and enjoy |
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@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I understand about showcasing Cooper Kupp for trade purposes but are the Rams really out of contention ? The NFC West looks rather even - with the injuries that SF has, they do not appear dominant. I also think that T.Hill is going to play for Miami on Sunday rather than just dress and sign autographs like he has done since Tua went out. I have no interest in betting the 49ers until McCaffery returns. There is a long history of Super Bowl losing teams underperforming the following year. SF seems to be falling into this pattern. I'm still going with the Eagles, the teams seem to be evenly matched all the way down to mediocre/inept coaches. I like the points and the RB Barkley. I also think that the Seahawks/Bills should be close and the Seahags have the better RB [ Walker ] . I'm not certain that the loss of Metcalf is that severe - Njigbe [ sp ] might surprise everyone. And I did go back and make a play on the Colts [ the more I see of Steichen, he could be the next McVay ! Good luck everyone ! Note : I dropped Stafford from my Fantasy team and replaced him with K. Murray. I was thinking of starting Murray but I put my other QB K. Cousins back in instead. I have a bad feeling about this though, especially when Stafford went off on Thursday. |
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@Baird Still love the Colts. I got them at +5.5, and - unless I'm missing something - would take them in a heartbeat at the current +4.5. I'm with Walt - IND could easily win outright. HOU can be had up the gut, especially now with the injuries at LB and S. I'm assuming the IND coaching staff is smart enough to put designed runs for Anthony Richardson back on the menu. If so, AR and Taylor should be able to control the clock. Worse case scenario is Richardson craps the bed and gets benched for Flacco, in which case Pittman and Downs eat. Either way, the Colts should make it a game. |
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@Baird Yeah, trends don't last forever and every game is different. I only consider trends when I've exhausted every other possible angle and all things are equal. The Parsons/Bland news sobered me up. That, and the realization that DAL - at 3-3 - likely isn't in "must win" mode yet. That could be next week @ ATL. My initial lean just feels a week too early. Should Parsons and/or Bland return @ ATL, I'll probably be on the Cowboys. I still think the 49ers are slightly overrated, but the Cowboys are really hurting. There was talk of Tyler Smith sticking at LT - which I liked - but it looks like DAL will continue to ride out Guyton's growing pains. Bosa could easily go nuclear on Guyton/Steele. A dominant Bosa game, a healthy dose of Jordan Mason (DAL has no answer vs. the run) and a sprinkle of Kittle should be enough for something like a 26-20 SF win. |
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@Mr. Bitter Saw you back off Dal a bit. Obviously Phillips & Parson is a big deal. Looking forward to Bland & Parsons back. Saw 13-3-1 ish McCarthy ATS coming off extra time. Not a fan of trends and backed off the game myself. |
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@Baird Was also surprised by no mention of Gardeck. The ARI defense officially has no pass rush, and - no offense to Dennis Gardeck - the fact that Gardeck was the front seven defender ARI could least afford to lose shows just how little talent they have. Take away Budda Baker and that's little better than a practice squad-quality depth chart. |
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MIA - The cynical side of me cant help but think the Tyreek Hill iffy status is a ploy. He was smiling ear to ear hearing Tua would likely play. Did he get beat up last game or something I missed? I feel like he should be super fresh. Im being a homer and will be all over MIA Sun morning IF both are a go. Also, Gardeck out gets no mention? He's their best pass rusher - huge deal for a mediocre AZ D traveling across the country, outdoors after a big prime time win . I also think MIA's running game gets going (despite or in-spite of what AZ D did last week). BUF - I'm teasing Buf +3 as well. Was waiting for Woolen to come back, but its a wash with Cooper. The weather is the only thing keeping SEA from getting trashed by 10+ at home. SEA should be able to run the ball and shorten the game, but without Metcalf I cant see them sustaining drives. He's a huge missing piece. BUF has MIA next which is the only thing keeping me from going crazy. Note to self: BUF has destroyed middling teams and got worked by better competition. SEA without DK is def the former. |
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Why isn't Will Rogers at Washington in the prospect rankings? So far this year he has a 72.2% completion rate 13 tds only 2 into. Last year he was at Ms st and transferred after Mike Leach passed. |
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Its hard to take any list serious that doesn't have Cam Ward number 1 at this point
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UPDATE: Parsons and Bland are OUT for DAL, with Kendricks questionable. The forecast is now calling for 10-15 MPH winds, so weather shouldn't be too much of a problem. Seriously questioning my DAL pick now, especially after reading a deep dive into DAL's extreme vulnerability to outside zone running schemes. Also worried about Nick Bosa taking turns on DAL's turnstile OTs. |
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@WFDevTeam That's what I mean. As bad as the Patriots are, that +7 at home vs. the Jets is tempting too. |
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@Mr. Football The Prescott Cowboys always seem to play their best when the least is expected of them, and their worst when everyone thinks they've finally turned the corner to "SB contender". |
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@Mr. Football I'm worried there is going to be a lot of contrarian type results this week in general. |
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The Cowboys will upset the 49ers on Sunday Night Football- because of all the negative press- that will be the motivation factor to prove the national press coverage wrong in front of the record breaking national TV audience to see whether the Cowboys will win or lose. Cowboys 23 49ers 20. Putting a smile on Jerry face to give the national talking heads like Stephen A to discuss for a week How about dem Cowboys!
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I put 3U on Rams > 6.5 wins before the LVR game last week (5 wins to go) thinking they would be competitive when healthy. I figured they would give vikings trouble on a short week, coming off a Det battle. Now, I'm concerned hearing all the trade talk. That normally happens when a team mails it in. Also, I was hopeful JJ III would be back to assist on D but Nacua is good surprise. In any case, I'm opening teasers and trying to double tonight with more on Min +3 to +3.5 with small on Rams +9. I also added 1 teaser w/ over 41. Leaving for Vegas Saturday morning to cash tickets and will add teasers and ML parlays. Teaser leans... And will mix in a little Dal +10 for Mr. Bitter's take (& SF injuries). ML parlays to follow - GL |
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Start up three team par with the Vikings -145, two open. Risking 1 unit. Small hedge play with the Rams at +125.
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@Karensman Regarding Cooper Kupp - I think the Rams are trying to maximize his trade value before the Nov. 5 deadline. Get him as healthy as possible for a high-volume showcase game tonight, then sell high. Maybe squeeze a 3rd-rounder from a slot WR-needy team like PIT or something. Yeah, Baker Mayfield's slim MVP chances may have evaporated with the Godwin injury. Godwin's slot role is the fulcrum of Liam Coen's scheme. Huge loss. If any NFC QB will challenge Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes for MVP it's probably Jared Goff at this point. Longshot though. (I'm guessing Lamar gets his third. Feels like he's on a mission.) My favorite plays this week are IND and DAL. I caught IND +5.5 figuring that line would tighten up once/if Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner are cleared to play. Even if they don't, the HOU defense is soft up the middle and severely banged up right now, and the offense is in an awful rut without Nico Collins. IND could easily win SU. Caught DAL +4.5. That line could tighten, too. (Bland, Parsons, Kendricks, Deebo) There's value in fading SF right now, IMO. They're still being priced closer to recent 49ers vintage than what they actually are right now. Their offense is injury-plagued, their defense is susceptible and they have a real problem at kicker. With 25-30 MPH winds in the forecast, Aubrey could give DAL a huge advantage in this one - assuming he doesn't miss the game for jury duty. I still like the LAC's Wild Card chances, especially once their CBs and WRs get healthy. Beyond BUF/BAL/HOU/KC, the AFC is a jumble. I think PIT and DEN will cool down and have seen no indication that Jeff Ulbrich and Aaron Rodgers are capable of turning the Jets around. The Titans just suck. Ran Carthon is making all the wrong decisions, from letting Mike Vrabel go to overpaying for Spagnuolo scheme-specific fool's gold L'Jarius Sneed. |
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@Mr. Bitter: I had forgot that Baker used to be the QB for Cleveland. He was good but not great but the Browns fell in love with Watson and gave up the 'farm' to acquire him and set the franchise back for an extended period of time. Yes, Baker has improved and was having an incredible season, but he just lost his top 2 receivers which will probably kill his MVP chances. If he is as good as I think he is; he could still be a 'wager on' QB until the oddsmakers catch up.
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@Karensman - you're prob right on the Chubb injury. I assumed BAL & LAC were match up issues and the bye was helpful. Takes me back to Mr. Bitter's comment... "the ghost of Chubb will limp" I cant find it below but that was pure comedy and sticks with me. Not that it matters, but when I checked the stats he was 10 for 50 and now he shows 11 for 50. Odd, but 4.5 not 5.0 vs NO.
I dont like the TNF game but I like your take on the refs. I may roll 0.5U on CLE +9.5 to start a 6-game teaser for fun.