Site Comments
10 Comments (last 3 days):
)
|
|
|
I completely agree with you, Walter. The Bills are the slightly better team, however, the officiating worries me. Clete Blakeman has made several controversial calls that cost me a bet. It also seems like every time I bet against Mahomes, he finds a way to win the game. I'll have to think about this one.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Why'd you abandon giving bets on the over/under totals? Was your record that abysmal? :)
|
|
|
|
|
|
for someone who pretends to be such a sharp, you sure lose a lot by waiting until game day to bet. you do realize the market is at it's most efficient on game day right? quit being a []
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter Good on you to comment on hear. In the recap it didn't sound like Walt was gloating too much about it. That he acknowledged the Ravens lost it as much as the Bills won it. Good stuff. |
|
|
|
|
AFC Championship Prediction: Xavier Worthy gets loose for 100+ yards and 2 TDs. The entire fourth quarter will be Romo and Nantz talking about what a mistake it was for BUF to let KC move up in the draft for Worthy.
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
Would be nuts to see Colston Loveland fall to the Chiefs. I'd think Den or SD would look to get more help for their QB's rather than draft D in first round.
|
|
|
|
|
|
For all my statistical digging, I overlooked the simple fact that the Lamar Jackson-era Ravens can't help but shoot themselves in the foot in the playoffs. Congrats on a great week, Walt. Enjoy the inevitable Chiefs three-peat brought to you by State Farm, Pfizer and playoff referees.
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Karensman Thanks. The Rams and Ravens have been good to me recently. (Although this is my stop on the Rams.) Full disclosure: You'll almost never see me delve into prop bets, O/Us, teasers and such, and that's by design. The job I've worked at for close to a decade now has been doing a weekly NFL SU picks pool since I've been there. I basically won the pool every week for the first few years of my employment, and this was noticed by the owner - a wealthy, old-school ponies guy that was only a casual football fan but always has an eye open for action. He pulled me aside and proposed a money man/idea man arrangement where all I had to do was give him my weekly NFL picks ATS weighted by confidence, let him do his thing, and get my cut. No teasing, no props action, just straight down the list ATS. Anything else has to be on my dime. He's okay with eating some loss as long as it's a profitable venture overall. However, he keeps track of my team-by-team record and alerts me when a pattern suggests I'm not reading a team correctly. Forces me to constantly reevaluate teams, and has taught me that formulas like Walt's Group A/Group B stuff are nearly useless, as it's almost never about where a team is from - it's where a team is at. Especially this time of year. I don't think Jerks of the Week, the TV Commentators shtick, etc, will be going anywhere any time soon. Hate to play amateur psychologist, but Walt is obviously a guy who is very resistant to change. Not a big deal because we're all like that to some degree, but his stubbornness sometimes gets him in trouble when handicapping. His current "Ravens are overrated" ride is a perfect example. He still talks about BAL as if they're the same team from a few months ago that was enduring the rookie growing pains of Roger Rosengarten and Nate Wiggins (now emerging stars), Justin Tucker's yips, and still starting Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams at safety. Instead of reevaluating and adjusting accordingly, he'll just go down with the ship. |
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter : Glad to hear you've been doing well, keep it up. Making money on the NFL is tough. I couldn't pull the trigger this week although I would have hit the under on the Hou-Kc game. I'm with you as far as Walter, I enjoy reading his matchup writeups and analysis although I don't always agree with his opinion. If I don't have a bet on a game, I will usually root for Walter's team. I have some advice that I think would really help Walter : Spend more time and money handicapping the over/under. I broke into the Race & Sports wagering business in 1982 working at a small casino in North Las Vegas . Down the street was the Delmar Race & Sportsbook which was run by Bill Dark who was the acknowledged Bookmaker that started posting lines on Over/Unders for most sports. I'd like to make one point about over/unders : why are the limits so much lower on Total bets ? Although a lot has changed on sports wagering over the years , the gap on limits between totals wagers and wagers on the sides remains high. Both wagers usually employ the -110 line so the juice for the house remains the same. I firmly believe that Walter's win percentage would improve and he might even be able to go back to posting his picks for free rather than have us subsidize his losses. And like many of his readers, I don't read or pay any attention to his comments on Monday Night Football announcers or Jerks of the Week, I would rather focus on the games. I actually find that the opinions of you and Baird among others are better than Walter's. Good luck to all
|
|
|
|
|
|
I know trades aren't in yet. But as a Titans fan.... PLEASE trade back, take the best available OL in the first round. And take Jackson Dart in the 2nd if he's still available. I believe he is good enough to go first round. But not 1 overall. So get your picks and build pleaseeeee
|
|
|
|
|
|
@smartone1986 couldn't agree more. There's not a single player in this draft that screams #1 overall. And as a Titans fan.... please trade back
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Osmodiar i agree. I believe Dart is definitely a first round QB with all the skills needed to be a good NFL QB out the gate
|
|
|
|
|
|
"...Milroe needs to improve his ability to read coverage, his knowledge of defenses, his communication, and develop his football I.Q." Sounds like an effing disaster, and waste of a pretty high pick to me. |
|
|
|
|
|
BAL is my only bet this weekend, but I have a nagging feeling I'm leaving $$ on the table by laying off HOU. Hate this matchup for the Chiefs. Three-peat pressure, while HOU is playing with house money. The HOU defense is running hot, and the state of the KC O-line is giving me SB 55 vibes. Thuney starting at LT seems more an indictment of D.J. Humphries than absolute confidence in Thuney. Even when playing LT, Thuney plays like a guard - immediate engagement and getting up in those pads, with little traditional kickstep action to be seen. Great guard, but he needs help on the edge. Anderson and Hunter could be a serious problem for Mahomes. Another serious problem is Mike Caliendo at LG. He sucks. Just makes me even less confident in a KC run game that has looked meh anyway. (Pacheco is not right. Maybe the extended layoff helps him?) Especially against a HOU run defense that is #2 in adjusted line yards and top-10 when Fatukasi and Al-Shaair are healthy. That said, KC is at home in 20 degree conditions vs. a dome team. With Jaylen Watson back the KC defense could pitch a shutout. For those less afraid than me and are betting HOU, I salute you. GL to all. |
|
|
|
|
|
I am not much of a trends guy. I like to take the team that comes in hot down the stretch. That being said the Chiefs are 13-5 ats in playoff games with Mahomes . It would be hard to bet against that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
SATURDAY NOTES: Kevin Zeitler is out, while Taylor Decker will play. I still like the Redskins for a few units with the back-door potential. Something else that hurts the Rams is that Alaric Jackson was DNP on Friday. If he’s going to be sidelined, Matthew Stafford will be in trouble in the pocket What? ?? Who's playing who |
|
|
|
|
|
I don't see the Ravens taking Isaiah Bond, as they should be very happy with the performances of Flowers and Bateman, not to mention also having Andrews and Likely be consistent pass catchers in their offense. OLB and OL are much more pressing positions of need, especially OLB as Oweh will hit free agency in 2026 and the rest of the pass rush room outside of KVN are developmental pieces that have not shown anything of substance.
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Zay Flowers is doubtful. Yet, the Ravens are still favored because of the mania surrounding this team." During Flowers' career, BAL is 13-0 SU (including 2-0 SU in the playoffs) in games in which Flowers was inactive or targeted less than 5 times. Just more two-TE sets, more targets for Bateman, Likely and Hill, and more Ricard/6 OL jumbo sets. (Smallish BUF defense ranked 31st vs. jumbo sets, BTW.) The Ravens aren't favored because of mania. The Ravens are favored because they are a matchup nightmare for the Bills and can beat you in a dozen different ways right now. |
|
|
|
|
|
"I like both Buffalo outside receivers against Baltimore's crappy cornerbacks" I get that this statement is likely more double-down and feather-ruffling than anything else at this point, but - again - it's wrong. If you want to say that Brandon Stephens is crappy, fair enough. Stephens has allowed nearly 1,000 yards and 5 TDs in coverage. He cannot get his head around on deep shots for the life of him. What I wanna know is this: Do you think Nate Wiggins is crappy? If so, you haven't payed attention since roughly midseason. BAL's rising defensive EPA and #1 EPA vs. the pass since Week 11 despite Stephens' struggles is largely due to a pronounced increase in top-end help from Kyle Hamilton on Stephens' side to mitigate damage. Why has BAL been able to employ this tactic? Because Nate Wiggins is emerging as a lockdown boundary corner on the other side. Following some very normal early-rookie season hiccups and some yanking in and out of the lineup, Wiggins has fully blossomed since mideason.
If you want to say something along the lines of "Wiggins' inexperience is bound to catch up to him in the postseason", I could kinda buy that. But to say he's currently a crappy CB is objectively wrong. |
|
|
|
|
|
@WFDevTeam I was going to post about PIT/BAL earlier in the week but didnt want to seem like I was piling on. I did well on that game so I dont mind what side anyone took, but I
feel like Walt was trying to see something that wasnt there. The short of it is... PIT played exactly like they did the previous 4 games (bad) and BAL did the same (great). The writing was on the wall & everyone in the comments seemed to see it. To me he missed both sides - PIT was worse & BAL better than his opinion of both teams. |
|
|
|
|
|
@WFDevTeam Can only speak for myself, but here's what I think: The "BAL's secondary is weak" angle is incorrect. Has been for a while. Boundary CB Brandon Stephens alone is the weak link - maybe on the entire team. Walt's "The Bills are better than the Ravens" take - while defiantly bold - is untrue. It's untrue by every offensive and defensive metric, and it's untrue if you simply look at the roster talent position-by-position. And this is all before factoring in John Harbaugh's historic road playoff record (#1 in road playoff wins and road playoff win % in NFL history), BUF's recent trouble TCB at home in the divisional round, and the fact that BUF's run-funnel, light box defensive scheme is the exact opposite of what you want to contain Jackson/Henry. The Ravens are an awful schematic matchup for the Bills defense and it's hardly mentioned in his writeup because he's too busy with Group A/Group B hocus pocus. Walt's BUF>BAL play is largely based on that Group A/Group B stuff - which is inherently flawed because what teams are good on any given week is totally fluid, and it's too easy to leave out pertinent facts that don't fit your argument. (Such as the fact that BAL is 8-3 against playoff teams and would be 10-1 had it not been for Justin Tucker missing three kicks in two of those games. I can go a step further in that "what if" game: BAL would have entered the playoffs 15-2 had Tucker just been his usually reliable self and had Kyle Hamilton not dropped a sure game-ending Jameis Winston INT that hit him between the numbers vs. CLE back in October.) Sure, Walt could eventually be right about a BAL opponent winning by targeting and burning Stephens, but that only happens if Stephens is matched up against a reliable boundary deep threat. BUF is actually an easier matchup for Stevens than PIT in that regard because Wilson-to-Pickens deep stuff is largely how PIT won through the air, whereas BUF is more about efficient over-the-middle feeds to Shakir/Samuel/TEs and a healthy dose of Superman stuff from Josh Allen. (This actually plays right into the R. Smith/Humphrey/Hamilton strength of BAL's defense.) Basically, you're banking on Keon Coleman and/or Mack Hollins to step up and give Stephens the business. Possible, but a very shaky bet. One also has to assume that opponent controls the BAL ground game, which even the best run defenses haven't been able to do all season. Like, not at all. PIT wasn't the team to do it, and neither is BUF. Milano's presence won't change that. Milano is obviously compromised and has been mostly awful since his return. His 56.6 PFF run D grade is 148th/189 LBs, and his 48.0 overall LB grade is 161st/189 LBs, and all that is after his 86.3 grade vs. DEN - a game where Milano's role was almost purely to spy Bo Nix. If BUF uses Milano to spy Lamar Jackson, Jackson is going to break Milano's ankles and rush for 100 yards. |
|
|
|
|
|
What is the consensus in this comment section on the primary reason Walt missed on his Pit Bal pick last week? Was he more wrong about Pit or Bal? I think he may still be proven right about the Ravens defense and Pit just simply wasn't the team do it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can we start a petition to have Aaron Rodgers hop on over to the Giants for next season? Am I the only one that wants the Aaron Rodgers in NY experience to be completed in this way?
|
|
|
|
|
|
This WR list is ridiculous. Pat Bryant from Illinois will be drafted 3rd or 4th round and you don't even have him top 40? He was #2 or #3 in all major receiving categories in the Big Ten (excluding the playoffs which have skewed Smith's and Warren's numbers). Big catch after big catch all season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Bucs are not wasting a 2nd round pick on OT. They have 2 of the best in the league. Solid swing tackle too. Needs are ILB, OLB, CB and DT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Taylor Decker's wife just had a baby that's why he's away - He's playing. Christian Mahogany is the backup Guard and he was had a tremendous first start grading out highly. He will also be sandwiched between the best center and RT in the game so I think he'll be all right
|
|
|
|
|
Walt,
Do You ever update "most bet teams" during the week or before gametime. They are different the following week during your recap section Thanks |
|
|
|
|
|
@COVID69 just want to double down on how ridiculous this was. you said this on a 3 pick week lmao.
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter Walt does a lot of stuff to just make himself laugh. its the only explanation because it is nowhere close to being funny to anyone else. |
|
|
|
|
|
@lewseyrich Oops. Misread and feeling defensive. Apologies. Yeah, agree about the commentators stuff. At this point it's just done out of tradition and goes unread. It's this site's equivalent of a holiday fruitcake. |
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr Bitter I realise Walt puts in endless hours on handicapping which is appreciated... my comment, if you read it in full, was concerning the time putting together the poor parody on the CBS Commentators rather than what this site is designed for... NFL INSIGHT As for the Commentators dross,every week!!..Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping... never read once all the years I've followed the site The site still has a value for me as a follower of NFL since 1981 |
|
|
|
|
|
@lewseyrich Eh, it's still a great site. 90% of other sites have a team of prognosticators; Walt has been flying solo on handicapping for two decades. It's impressive if only for the endurance. Walt's picks are usually solid and he's often out ahead of a lot of angles many other prognosticators miss. He's just lost in the labyrinth of Group A/Group B minutiae right now and has a stubborn blind spot with the Ravens. (These spells are bound to happen when a guy is basically in the midst of a cruel, two decade long, one-man sociology experiment.) His CFB picks have been money in the bank this season, and Charlie Campbell's annual NFL Draft content/predictions are eerily accurate. Being active in comment sections (beyond just jumping in one time to get your kicks in after a bad bet) is part of supporting a site, and I would like to think I fold a few substantial angles into my weekly dross, as do other core commentors. Hell, we've been trying to get through to Walt about the terrible blunder he's making with Baltimore with stats and angles for weeks...and we do it before the games start. "...Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping..." (Mentally read that part with a kinda gay lisp...Sorry, couldn't help it.) Thanks, but I don't think I could possibly spend any more time handicapping. Getting okay at it, too. Went summer vacation money-heavy on BAL and LAR last week. Feels good. |
|
|
|
|
|
YOU should have ignored Baltimore's "Glaring flaws" when they steamrolled Pittsburg... Who are these people with "inexplicable mania"?... Do Circadian Rhythms affect a WHOLE team and not just an individual?... Does wearing firefighters shirts or having a better ""resume" give you an advantage? You should get away from these unproven intangibles... your success would improve greatly I am convinced... Logic, Reasonableness are king in any judgement call (Gut feeling can be useful too, sometimes) As for the Commentators dross,every week!!..Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping... never read once all the years I've followed the site Been following for many years but other handicappers are providing better analysis... Once great site, slowly losing credence... shame |
|
|
|
|
|
"...there's an inexplicable mania surrounding the Ravens..." This is like saying there was an inexplicable mania surrounding the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. The '24 Ravens are 2nd only to those '99 Rams in offensive EPA in the SB era. People are bedazzled by Henry because they should be. He's arguably the best post-season RB in history and is running possessed. He's been a steamroller the entire season, even against PHI and TB with Vea. His Wildcard performance had nothing to do with a lack of effort by PIT - what you witnessed was a defense that got it's soul crushed by Henry and a dominant BAL O-line. Your BUF pick is built off the assumption that BUF will contain Henry this time around, just as you assumed PIT would contain Henry in your picks last week. Good luck with that. BUF's run defense is...just okay? (4.5 YPRA). BAL's run defense is the best in the NFL by a wide margin. BUF's rushing attack is good. BAL's rushing attack is historically elite. Henry is currently running with a "IF YOU GET IN MY WAY I'LL F*CKING KILL YOU" determination. Now is his time to get a ring. This is '82 playoffs John Riggins-type stuff. |
|
|
|
|
|
Walt is obviously mad at the Rams for making him look foolish and now he is going to lose another $500 of monopoly money on the Eagles. But they beat them 2 times by 9 and 15. You really need to give up on trends and previous games.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Best Browns scenario now: Deion becomes the Raiders coach, Browns trade #2 to them for #6 and more picks. Raiders take Sheduer #2.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I have the strongest confidence in Ravens over Bills. John Harbaugh absolutely owns Josh Allen. Take a look at Allen's passer ratings in his 5 career games against the Ravens: 73.9 64.8; 62.6 56.0< Rushing numbers aren't any better. He has only 21, 70, 9, 3, and 26 yds with only 1 TD run in those meetings. He doesn't even look like a pro QB against the Ravens. The only times the Bills have beaten them in the past is when the Ravens lacked the offense. That won't be the case this time. Furthermore, the Ravens have the matchup advantage in rough weather since they have both a dominant run offense and defense. |
|
|
|
|
|
"We had a losing week, but a winning one if the Pick of the Month never happened" This kind of mental gymnastics is impressive even for you. You lost a 10 unit play!! so if you ignore a pick you had the MOST confidence on, it was a winning week?? Clearly it was a losing week unless you somehow could've decided to not bet your MOST CONFIDENT play of the month. insane. Steelers were nowhere close to the right side. |
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter "Jenna Jameson Effect... more comfortable on top than behind. PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team". - comedy genius right there. Thanks for the laugh |
|
|
|
|
|
@WFDevTeam It's all in good fun. Even the best prognosticators are lucky to turn a profit ATS. Walt has put his thoughts and predictions on every game out there for like two decades, knowing there will be whiffs and ensuing ridicule. That takes balls. What really irritates me are the pile-jumpers that never engage beforehand but are always there to call out when someone is wrong after the fact. Like, if you can do better then let's hear it, Jimmy the Greek. |
|
|
|
|
|
@WFDevTeam I dunno - I think it's more playfully gloating than bitter. I've also been waiting a long time for the opportunity to shoehorn my favorite Sopranos line into a comment. Had to go for it. I'm looking forward to his Week 20 picks to see how far off my parody is. I predict there will be suggestion that the 4th-down play would have somehow made a difference, how BAL is overrated and how bad their secondary is. I also predict BAL will beat BUF. The Ravens are perfectly designed to win on the road in the playoffs. |
|
|
|
|
|
If Tyler Warren is not the first TE selected, and he gets to the second round for the Eagles to take and they pass on him... then I'm going to find Howie and kick him in the ball bag!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
@broncoselway You just reveal your own ignorance. PIT was the right side. It was a bad beat. BAL's win had nothing to do with being at home, being more talented at every position, being better-coached or having a historically brutalizing ground game that had PIT LBs and DBs literally running away from contact and crushed what remained of PIT's spirit before halftime. If you knew anything about football, you'd know that the rules state that if you go for it on 4th-down, you get to switch QBs with the opposing team. If PIT would have gone for it on 4th-down at their own 29-yard line in the 2nd quarter instead of stupidly punting it away, Lamar Jackson would have become PIT's QB, and the defense would have suddenly been able to stop Derrick Henry from running at will. So you see, it's not that BAL was the better team - the Steelers just screwed themselves with that decision. The Jenna Jameson Effect also came into play in this game. I wouldn't Google it at work, but let's just say it has something to do with teams being more comfortable on top than behind. You see, PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team, so it's not that BAL was better than PIT, it's just that the Ravens wouldn't stop scoring points and let PIT get in their comfort zone. There was no way to see this coming, except for the facts that PIT had scored zero 1st-quarter points in their last 5 playoff games and BAL is the much, much better team. But I would like to think it had more to do with my bad luck and that God hates me. Also, I had the flu and was tired from staying up with the kids. You're probably stupid enough to think the overrated Ravens and their practice squad secondary have any chance vs. the Bills next week. Sure, BAL ran for 271 yards and beat BUF 35-10 earlier in the season, but Jupiter wasn't aligned with Mars so DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver were distracted. |
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter No worries. I was just busting your balls back. I agree with you most of the time. However, with the Steelers losing 4 consecutive games and the Ravens winning 4 straight games, I just don't see an upset. Especially playing @ BAL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
LAC -2.5 With Denzel Perryman's status still up in the air, I'll assume that both teams will be able to establish serviceable ground games and trade some early-game body blows, so the key questions here are which QB will face more pressure and which defense will be able to contain the opposing offense's best target as the game unfolds. I give the Chargers the advantage at both. HOU's defensive scheme is predicated on consistent edge pressure from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The Chargers are equipt like no other AFC playoff team to contain them with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Conversely, Bosa and Mack will be taking turns on outmatched HOU RT Blake Fisher. With a relatively clean pocket, Herbert will chisel away at the HOU defense with Ladd McConkey. Derek Stingley's shadow duties begin and end along the boundary, so McConkey will very likely see slot coverage from some combination of Myles Bryant, Jeff Okudah and Eric Murray. This just screams 11/120/2 for McConkey. On the flip side, the Chargers will be able to focus completely on containing Nico Collins, and should be successful, just as that historically bad BAL secondary was in Week 17. HOU's only other viable target is Dalton Schultz, and he has flat-out sucked all season. I don't see why he would stop sucking now, especially matched up against two of the NFL's highest-graded TE-erasers in Daiyan Henley and Derwin James. I'm fairly confident the Chargers TCB (especially if Perryman plays), but since this is LA's first playoff appearance under a new regime (often a bad spot ATS, especially as a road favorite), I'll be laying off this game. BAL -9.5 Rashod Bateman fully breaks out with 8/120/1, George Pickens melts down, and the Ravens beat the piss out of the Steelers. I'm betting every dime in the bank and a pinkie finger without hesitation. For more details, scroll down. GL to all |
|
|
|
|
|
@DoctorJ Hey, that hurts. I thumbed-up your comment. I was just busting balls with the crazy thing. Like I said - unreliable. 1 catch for zero yards vs. the Bengals. Just ask any Steelers fan what they think of George Pickens. |
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter George Pickens has been dealing with a hamstring injury since December 6th. Week 14 = DNP; Week 15 = DNP; Week 16 = DNP; Week 17 = 7 Targets, 3 Rec., 50 Yds.; Week 18 = 6 Targets, 1 Rec., 0 Yds. Last year's WC game was a long time ago and isn't really relevant to this season. Yeah, I'm the crazy one.
|
|
|
|
|
|
No mention of rookie RG Mason McCormick's broken hand? McCormick isn't Chris Lindstrom or anything, but he's been a godsend through the Fautanu, Daniels and Seaumalo injuries. The PIT O-line is mediocre, with fragile chemistry and crappy depth. They absolutely cannot lose another starter right now. PIT beat writers seem confident McCormick will be OUT. They're saying the surprise release of WR Scotty Miller yesterday was almost certainly to activate OT Calvin Anderson to replace the depth lost with Spencer Anderson moving in at RG for McCormick. Anderson was horrid in his three games before being benched earlier this season. |
|
|
|
|
|
The last 17 double-digit playoff home favorites are 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS. They average 33.5 PPG. Which WR led the NFL with a 77.3% separation rate and has 4 TDs in his last 4 games? Rashod Bateman. Which secondary allows the highest separation rate, the most receiving yards and 7th-most TDs p/game to outside WRs? The Pittsburgh secondary. Which "washed" TE has a TD in six straight games and has a league-leading average of 2.14 YPRR against single-high coverage? Mark Andrews. Which secondary uses single-high coverage at the highest rate? The Pittsburgh secondary. Isaiah Likely averages 1.77 YPRR against single-high coverage and has already went for 7/104/1 vs. PIT this season. Top-graded 3rd-down back Justice Hill and Nelson Agholor are back from injury this week. Lamar Jackson is #1 in QB EPA. Derrick Henry is #1 in RB EPA. The BAL O-line is ranked #1 in run and pass blocking, and #2 in Win Block % (DEN #1). But no Zay Flowers for a week. How will the Ravens possibly score?? |
|
|
|
|
|
@woo hoo More LAR motivation: McVay has reportedly put printed screen shots in the Rams locker room of Dan Campbell telling Kevin O'Connell "I'll see you in two weeks". |
|
|
|
|
|
@DoctorJ Wouldn't count on Freiermuth doing much. In his two games vs. BAL this season, he has a combined 5 catches for 30 yards. |
|
|
|
|
|
The Steelers have lost 5 straight playoff games with their opponents scoring an average of 40.4 PPG. They've been outscored 66-0 in the first quarter of those games. The Steelers haven't scored more than 17 points in over a month. The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in 11 of the past 14 weeks. Mentioned often: Steelers have won 8 of last 10 vs. BAL. Not mentioned as often: Lamar Jackson was unavailable for 6 of those 10 games. Per PFF, 138 CBs have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season. Cam Sutton is ranked 128th. Donte Jackson is ranked 132nd. Of 223 CBs, Joey Porter Jr. (55.0) is PFF's 160th-ranked in overall grade. Brandon Stephens's PFF grade of 55.8 is the lowest by 15 points in the BAL secondary. (Wiggins 70.7, A. Washington 80.3, Humphrey 81.0, Hamilton 90.1) Stephens would be the highest graded PIT CB. But let's talk about BAL's awful secondary. |
|
|
|
|
|
Do you think CLE would still draft Ward at 1.2 if the rumored Stefanski/Cousins reunion comes to fruition? Even if CLE acquires Cousins, I would still consider QB to be CLE's greatest need without hesitation. Interesting to see Kenneth Grant flirting with the top 10 in your mock. Seems like many are down on him, and I'm not sure why. Athletic freak that should kill at the Combine. Good to see a NoHeroes mock so early in the process. Look forward to more. |
|
|
|
|
|
@woo hoo I think Tomlin is a very good coach. He just doesn't have the horses to hang with BAL, regardless of how much his players may like him. These are two teams going in opposite directions. No defense can stop the BAL offense right now - Flowers or no Flowers. The '24 BAL offense is 2nd-best EPA all-time behind only the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. BAL is 1st in EPA/pass and EPA/rush, while the defense has been 1st in EPA/pass and #1 in total EPA from weeks 11-18. The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL by every metric, and what few early-season weaknesses they had are now strengths. Tomlin squeezed what he could from Russell Wilson, but we all kinda knew reality would set in as far as that goes. I doubt Wilson will just be able to turn that midseason form back on against a focused BAL team that is peaking in all three phases. Pat Freiermuth isn't enough. There's a reason Tomlin is hinting at getting Justin Fields more involved in this game. The Wilson magic has run it's course and isn't returning. Pickens is petulant and unreliable. We're talking about a WR1 with more career unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and fumbles than TDs. I seriously think he's more likely to get frustrated and disqualified than get loose in this matchup. The BAL secondary has been throwing blankets on WR1s much better than Pickens since Week 11. John Harbaugh teams are rarely caught off guard, and I can't see that happening in this spot. Not with the way last season ended vs. KC. The Steelers are likely walking into a buzzsaw, and Vegas knows it. |
|
|
|
|
|
@woo hoo: If the Ravens get caught "unaware" on a Playoff game at Home, then shame on them. I like the Ravens. GL to you going forward.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Since week 3 of the regular season this trend for me has not changed: Pars...No Bueno. Teasers....Muy Bueno. So with that, for tomorrow...Two team 7 pointer with: Houston +10, Ravens -2.5, risking 1 unit (for less.) GLTA tomorrow!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Mr. Bitter Even though I agree the Ravens are the favorites, the Steelers might be playing for Tomlin's job. Even though he's clearly a mediocre coach he's still loved by the players, particularly the veterans on that team. That might catch the Ravens off guard. |
|
|
|
|
|
The Rams have a number of things in their favor. McVay has developed a rep as a strong playoff performer as he's 7-4 and been to two SBs. The Rams pass rush matches up perfectly with the Vikings weaknesses on their OL and Darnold struggling under pressure. Also, even though LA is not known as a great fanbase, the Rams could be motivated to lift the area's spirits due to the fires.
|
|
|
|
|
|
@DoctorJ You must be crazy. Pickens is a clutch late-season and playoffs performer. I mean, have you already forgotten his monster 11 TGT/5 REC/50 YD/0 TD/1 LOST FMB performance in PIT's 31-17 loss to BUF in last season's WC? |
|
|
|
|
|
@Osmodiar I agree that they should trade Garrett. They can't fix their OL in one year and it's gone from a major strength to a major liability in just two years. Get a ransom for Garrett, trade down from #2 if you think this year's QB class sucks (it does), and then perhaps consider Abdul Carter after a small move down the board. Also, the thought of Kirk Cousins behind that OL is hilarious.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I have a hard time believing that Tyler Warren lasts until the 60's. I could see him going to the Chargers in the 1st. Ladd, Warren, and a #1 WR (an X) in free agency/trade.
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Pickens over 55.5 receiving yards...Pickens will bounce back in an easy matchup" This feels familiar... From Week 17 picks: "I believe the Ravens are an overrated team because of their poor pass defense, and that poor pass defense could allow the Texans to achieve a back-door cover if needed...Nico Collins over 92.5 receiving yards. Collins is a beast who will be force fed against Baltimore's poor secondary" Nico Collins was the most expensive player on your DFS contest slate Week 17, which was understandable since he was going up against such an awful secondary. It's not like he was going up against a pass defense that features two All-Pros and has been rated first in the NFL since Week 11 or something. Final: BAL 31 HOU 2 Nico Collins: 3/59/0
|
|
|
|
|
|
@petermwb - weak year for QBs, wouldn't be surprised if no QB taken in first 5 picks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I love reading the fans comments than the writers.' Agree with the two previous posts - using the Bears' first 3 picks all for DT is total nuts when the OL is in dire need of help. Another year of 68 sacks is not the way to develop the QB nor to win more games.
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore may be the team missing it's No. 1 receiver" In your analysis of the PIT/BAL matchup, this is the only sentence where I thought, "fair enough". Every other angle is either 7 weeks outdated or the result of getting lost in the labyrinth of that Group A/Group B thought experiment. I believe in being thorough, so I don't find the Group A/Group B tangents as ridiculous as some commenters, but when you start saying stuff like "PIT could have kept it closer if Russell Wilson hadn't fumbled near the GL, thrown that pick-6, etc", you're officially in "can't see the forest for the trees" territory. Lost in your analysis are the simple facts that Wilson is regressing badly and PIT is a team in collapse. Not sure how this is being missed, as late-season lulls and quick playoff exits are nothing new for the Tomlin Steelers. Meanwhile, the Ravens - a team built for January football like no other - is peaking in all three phases at just the right time, as John Harbaugh teams often do. "Pickens will be available this time, which is huge because it allows the Steelers to exploit Baltimore's biggest weakness, which is the secondary" I have tried to get through to Private Pyle, but I have failed. Me and some other commenters have tried to correct you on your "Ravens awful secondary" angle, but that outdated narrative just continues to roll along for some reason, so I'll just leave some stuff here:
You'll argue that BAL's defensive improvement has come against bad teams, but HOU - a team that you are currently suggesting could upset the Chargers and make an '08 Cardinals-type SB run - was just held to zero points by the BAL defense. But "Pickens will be available this time". Yeah, and? Like most things in PIT right now, the Wilson-to-Pickens connection is clearly broken. Pickens hasn't had more than 4 catches or 74 yards in a game since mid-November, and is coming off a miserable goose egg performance. Most importantly: Pickens is the kind of player that - when the going gets tough - is more likely to drop two passes, have a meltdown and get ejected than step up with a huge performance. It's who he is. Is Pickens really the guy you want as a foundational angle to your Pick of The Month? "The Steelers should be better against the run than that. They'll do a better job of limiting Henry" Are you sure about that? PIT gave up 220 rushing yards to BAL two weeks ago. What's changed? Other than Mike Tomlin now hinting at getting Justin Fields in there to try to get something going. (Which would likely just mean even more PIT TOs and BAL clock-killing ground dominance.) The facts are that PIT has been leaky against the run recently and are going up against a historically dominant BAL rushing attack that has routinely gashed top-10 run defenses this season (271 yards vs. BUF, 249 vs. TB with Vea, 166 vs. PHI, etc). BAL doesn't really have a weakness right now. Everything is falling into place at the right time. I mean, even Justin Tucker, who missed 8 FGs and 2 XPs before BAL's bye week, hasn't missed a kick since. BAL 35 PIT 20
|
|
|
|
|
|
@biskit52250 im a fan of this site but i must say, Walt has had a weird obsession with the Packers all year long. They’re unimpressive. They’ve been in several dog fights with bad teams and have no real quality wins. As a Lions fan, it has been apparent to me that you guys are the superior team. Even after Sunday night I still respect you guys more than the Lackers. It seems inconsistent to me that Walt knocks some teams for ugly wins and bad records vs good teams while excusing other teams for doing exactly that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I just don't see it with Milroe. Seems like a lot of pundits are reaching because this is a weak QB class. At best he looks like a backup for offenses that utilize a dual-threat QB. I know Jalen Hurts had a similar profile but that's a huge risk in the early rounds for a guy like that and Milroe hasn't even shown any improvement over the years.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tyler Warren's not going past the Eagles in the 2nd round. By Draft Day, he may not get past the Eagles in the first round.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Walt all year you have bet against the Broncos and all year you have lost betting against them and it won't change now Broncos cover the spread and maybe they even beat Buffalo.Good luck your gonna need it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens. George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury. He might be still feeling the effects. Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver. Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now. I'll be betting on them big.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Picking some CB for the Saints while Jeanty and Mason Graham are both available is perplexing
|
|
|
|
|
|
It makes no sense for the Cowboys to take Prather so early. If you really think that they need a WR so desperately, then why not Prather's teammate Tai Felton instead?
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Barnowl1952 Beck and Ewers seem like future NFL backups. Just feels like Day 2 stuff like Colt McCoy, Eric Zeier, Deshone Kizer, Cody Kessler, etc, all over again. If there's any chance Ward or Sanders can develop into a franchise QB, CLE has to choose one. Otherwise, the organization will just continue spinning it's wheels. |
|
|
|
|
|
Hopefully the Browns can trade down a couple of spots (vegas or Jets) and pick up an additional pick or 2. Not sold on Ward after bowl fiasco. Would rather have D tackle from Michigan and possibly Beck or Ewers in 2nd round.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Giving the Chicago Bears a DT in each of the first 3 rounds is just plain stupid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Late Games: SF +4.5 HEAVY I expect Kyler Murray to put up a nice stat line. He will need to run more with all the RB injuries, and earns $750,000 in vidja scratch with 50 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. Also - he will be playing from behind. I've done well fading the overrated Cardinals during the 2nd half of the season and won't stop now. Josh Dobbs can be an efficient PG when the task isn't too large. The ARI defense qualifies. I expect nice games from Guerendo and one of Pearsall/Jennings in a comfortable SF win. KC +11 NO BET I worry a bit about how Nix and a young DEN team will respond in a must-win spot, especially after that draining OT loss to CIN. The Broncos still feel like a "next year" team to me. LAR +7.5 NO BET I know that Geno Smith stands to pocket $6 million with 185 passing yards, a 69.7 completion rate and a win, but I just have a hunch that Garoppolo, Corum and Atwell keep this within 7. Sean McVay likes this type of challenge. LAC -7 NO BET All logic says the Chargers are the right side, but I'm fearful enough of a Bowers eruption to lay off. MIA +1.5 LIGHT Morgan Moses is OUT, while Terron Armstead is playing. Chop Robinson is cleared for takeoff. The Jets are directionless. MIA has motivation and I'm getting points. |
|
|
|
|
|
Another final Sunday of the regular season. As with tradition, I've already donned the black armband and had a moment of silence. The buffalo wings and chili fries are en route. Here's what I got on early games: ATL -7.5 NO BET I was leaning CAR here, as the Panthers have shown periodic spunk under Canales, and the possibility of a blowout in TB could render ATL deflated by the late-3rd quarter. Then I saw CAR's injury report. With Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn ruled OUT, ATL could easily name their score against CAR's practice squad D. With no Hubbard and injuries on the right side of the O-line, peppering Thielen with a million targets probably won't be enough to keep up. Still, I'm not touching this one. DAL +7 LIGHT Was gonna pass here, then the line moved from 4.5 to 7. Weird stuff happens in this rivalry. Much more importantly, I think WAS is overrated. Have for a while. Hail Marys...Hurts going down early...WAS has been very lucky and are a deceiving 11-5, IMO. WAS has nothing but vague seeding to play for, and avoiding PHI may (wrongly) be of little concern having just defeated them. Parsons vs. that banged-up O-line...no Lattimore (ever?)...I wouldn't be shocked if DAL wins SU. CHI +10 NO BET As with WAS, I think seeding motivation will be minimal - at best - for GB. On the road and with zero pressure in a meaningless game, my hunch is we finally see Caleb Williams and those WRs do enough damage for the backdoor cover. However, the CHI run defense is such crap that GB's backup RBs could simply control the game start-to-finish. The "but those CHI WRs!/backdoor" logic has burned me all year, so I'm laying off. JAX +3.5 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER I was sniffing around an IND fade until Josh Hines-Allen was ruled OUT. The IND defense has totally packed it in. I mean, Drew Lock?? That sin is unforgivable. Brian Thomas Jr. - motivated by that Pro Bowl snub - could go nuclear on a rusty JuJu Brents. Still, those angles aren't enough for an ATS wager on a Doug Pederson team. BUF -3.5 LIGHT A scroll of angles favor BUF.
PHI -2 NO BET Same deal here as BUF/NE. PHI's backup O-line and secondary may be better than NYG's current starters, and guys like Calcaterra, Ojomo, etc, could start for NY. From what I've seen of Tanner McKee in preseason action, I would take him over Lock if I was building a team. Still, no bet. Because Malik Nabers. Nabers only needs targets to kill any bet on PHI here, and - motivated by his race with Bowers for those rookie receiving records - he's undoubtedly going to get them. NO +14 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER Pure gut here. Every ounce of pressure is on TB. Given their current RB and interior O-line situation, NO won't even attempt to run vs. Vea and crew. However, I don't trust that banged-up TB secondary - even against Rattler, MV-S, Moreau, etc. - to prevent a backdoor. TEN -1.5 NO BET Obvious 1st half/2nd half appeal here, but also obvious Will Levis, so I'll pass. The Titans have already defeated HOU at full health back in November, and HOU honestly hasn't been very good since then. With Tony Pollard playing and motivated by nearly $500,000 in very attainable bonuses, TEN feels like the right side. Happy hunting fellas. |
|
|
|
|
|
@Baird I gave up a while ago on plays of any kind with Harris/Warren. PIT's insistence on feeding Harris so he can not break tackles and plod his way to 3 YPC is baffling. Also, PIT needs to find a chump team to take Pickens off their hands this offseason. Ultra-talented, but the dude is a poisonous moron. |
|
|
|
|
|
"plus RB props"... I failed to mention I went bigger on Warren than Harris. Warren 21+ rush (heavy tag, but happily paid) & +31, then splurged for 61+ at over 2-to-1. I hit Harris and rec props but wanted to point out Warren. GL
|
|
|
|
|
|
CLE/BAL - I teased medium on BAL -12.5, but backed off when it shot to 20. I'm liking the idea of Zappe starting and think he, backup TE & backup RBs will give 100%. CLE's WR crew and D? Not so sure. BAL wins easy but I think we see them back off in the 4th and rest all big names. I love BAL -12.5 teasers, but I'm liking the idea of a backdoor and will add small CLE +26 hoping they can score in mid-teens and BAL stops in the 30s. I'm going through Sunday's games and will post more. GL in the final week! |
|
|
|
|
|
I forgot to mention that Gervon Dexter and Billings are a formidable one two punch. In a healthy situation they are good. Just need to add depth. I absolutely stick by my statement of o-line as the need. |
|
|
|
|
|
The Bears defensive line needs depth not another starter. The interior was not bad when Billings was in there. When he went down along with Brisker so did the Defense. Thinking this is their biggest need is foolish. They need to rebuild the o line as Kansas City did a few years ago. They can do it with a combo of free agents and draft picks. They should take the top o lineman in round 1 or 2 at the latest. Then spend on replacements from left tackle to right guard. They must have 4 new offensive lineman next year to compete. SMH! |
|
|
|
|
|
So Kurtis Rourke leads Indiana to the CFB Playoff and is ranked #7 or #8 by EVERY other site but doesn't make your top 22? Walter Football is losing it. Sorry.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green Bay is definitely in my opinion overrated. They've had such an easy schedule. They're 3-5 vs teams with winning records. They haven't been able to beat the 2 best teams in their division. Their WRs can't catch, I believe 3 of them are in the top 15 most drops this year with 2 being in the top 10. They're leading these dropped stats with half the number of targets as the other WRs. Love is above avg but he's definitely not a superstar. He makes the dumbest throws sometimes and cant seem to beat goff or bradford. They'll be a threat in the playoffs like any NFC playoff team, but they're not the lions, viking or eagles. They might even struggle against the commanders if they had to play them.
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Baird They're insisting Rodgers will start. The dude has this organization held hostage. I have to think the leash will be short though. O-line injuries could be key here. Looks like MIA could be without Armstead and Lamm (IR today). However, DNPs for Moses and AV-T is just as concerning for the Jets. If they can't go, Chop Robinson could one-man wreck the right side of the NYJ O-line. |
|
|
|
|
|
@petermwb Gotta disagree, Jeanty is a stud and one of the few elite prospects in this draft. PSU - who is much more talented than Boise St. to begin with - totally keyed on Jeanty, and Boise was down 14-0 in the blink of an eye. Hard for any RB to thrive in that scenario. Even so, Jeanty still got 100+ and eventually got into a lather, busting runs of 10+, 20+, and contributing as a receiver. He's a 1st-rounder. Feldman Freak List (6.23 strength-to-body weight ratio, squats 600+ lbs, clocked at over 22 MHP in-game). He's bigger/stronger than Jahmyr Gibbs, who went 12th overall. |
|
|
|
|
|
the colorado buffaloes turned the alamo bowl into a real life shit show. now i here that shedeur sanders rented a strip club in san antonio and invited the whole team for 2 days. sanders is johnny manzeil 2.0. looks like a good party is more important than a football game. look for sanders to be a big time bust in the NFL. |
|
Games between these 2 teams over the last few years have been compelling. Buffalo tends to win in the regular season and KC in the playoffs.
That will change this year. The Bills defensive injury problems earlier this year are now much better with the return of stellar players in LBs Milano & Bernard along with one of the league's best slot corners in Taron Johnson.
Josh Allen (under the tutalage of OC Joe Brady) is using all of his RBs, TEs, and WRs in a ball-control offense while still having his cannon arm if the safties play up (not to mention his great running ability). It will be a close game, but Buffalo will prevail. We will all will be watching a Bills - Eagles Super Bowl.