Site Comments
16 Comments (last 3 days):
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I love it when a player comes in with a chip on their shoulder so looking forward to seeing where Sanders goes at this point.
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@Mr. Football How come whenever a draftnik says about their pick "Take it to the bank" they are almost always wrong? |
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Aaaaand of course my Jets drafted the OT with the highest bust potential, IMO. Any idea on what position the Rams are targeting at 2.46? I'm thinking CB. Passing up Travis Hunter to draft Mason Graham top-5 is why the Browns are the Browns. Nice call on CIN/Shemar Stewart. |
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Oh man. If things break this way, if I'm Seattle's GM, I'm taking Higgins in the second right before the Broncos, and Mason Taylor at 52. DK leaving left a hole at X WR, and with Brady Russell moving to FB the team only has two TEs on the roster, one of which, Fant, is on the final year of his deal - can guarantee Seattle takes a TE before the weekend is overm Kubiak loves 2 TE sets.
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Which team is MOST LIKELY to make the 1st HEADSCRATCHING PICK? I believe you can never go wrong saying THE RAIDERS!!
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If the Ravens draft resembles this mock with the exception of a few picks I would be very happy w=with this result
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Bizarre that both Charlie and Walter don't have Sanders being drafted in the first round. I get that his stock has fallen but to think that no one would spend a first rounder on him is insane. Saints, Steelers, Raiders, Colts, Giants, Jets, Browns etc. are all possibilities to draft him where they are or to trade into the late first round and nab him. First round means fifth year option. Tough to take these mocks seriously without Sanders somewhere in the first round.
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It was only week ago that Howie Roseman was asked how the Eagles deal with players who have off-field concerns. He said it is on a case-by-case basis BUT, players with sexual assault or violence against women charges are barred from even being considered by the Eagles. Zero chance Mike Green is even listed on their big board.
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@-Rod- I did have to deploy the debacled site a bit ago which may have caused issues. or it may be a bug in which case I may not be able to fix it until after the draft. Feel free to email me at dfield6091@gmail.com if you want to add more details. |
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So much wrong with this take: 1. No way in hell will the Giants be bad enough to draft Arch in 2026. 2. He didn't even start over Quinn Ewers. 3. He doesn't have nearly enough experience to even think about declaring after the 25 season. |
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Sounds like a cry for help Charlie, "my mock drafts are a projection of what I think teams WILL do and not what they SHOULD do." Perhaps Walterfootball will allow you to do a mock on "what teams SHOULD do". :-) |
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Cleveland has to trade up into slot 22 to take a QB, just because they've had so much success doing that in the past. /sarc |
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At 93 you say Chase Young hit free agency. Not accurate, Saints gave him another contract. Does this change your thinking with that pick? Cam is still set to retire after the year probably.
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Has anyone else noticed that Charlie and Walt are working from different draft orders?
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@The Champ You know what...scratch that about Henderson. Jahmyr Gibbs is a tandem RB and he popped off at 1.12. There are always surprise 1st RD picks and explosive offensive weapons are at a premium. I like Henderson better than Hampton, and Feldman's article suggests that a lot of NFL decision-makers feel the same. I'm finding a spot for Henderson in the 1st RD. |
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If you have access to The Athletic, check out Bruce Feldman's latest article. It's a position-by-position scroll of quotes from NFL scouts and coordinators about prospects that he's heard throughout the pre-draft process. It's similar to the Bob McGinn series, but less mean-spirited and likely more legit. Feldman's 2024 edition was mostly spot on as far as speculation as to where the prospects might pop off.
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@The Champ For what it's worth, the Pewter Report - where Charlie Campbell used to work - like Donovan Ezeiruaka at 1.19 and Demetrius Knight or Jeffrey Bassa in RD 3 or 4 for the Bucs. They've been on Ezeiruaka all along and never seriously considered Jihaad Campbell there. They have historically been pretty sharp with TB's picks. The UNDER on Egbuka's 29.0 O/U (-275) and OVER on the 2.5 total WRs drafted in the 1sr RD (-280) are getting juicier. I think Egbuka is a pretty safe 1st RD bet. I have to agree on TreVeyon Henderson. I love Henderson and his fit in DEN, WAS or even with the Chargers, but he's always been a tandem RB, and a tandem RB is an unlikely 1st-rounder. I'm considering DL or CB for DEN now - Payton could easily like Day Two guys like Kaleb Johnson or D.J Giddens. Be careful how high you slot Josh Simmons. I live in Columbus. Trust me - be careful. |
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Mmmm...IDK about Miami taking a guard at 13, we can get a good one at 48. We need an impact DT, CB, or S at 13
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Regarding the blurb about the Rams at 26, if they went WR, I think it's far more likely that they would be interested in Egbuka over Burden. Egbuka, in addition to the obvious receiving production, is loved by teams for his character, and the Rams really appreciate receivers who block their tail off in the run game. Think Robert Woods here, but better.
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I think I'm going to have to make some changes to what I have at the moment. The chatter seems to be that Jihaad Campbell is going to end up on PUP, so I may drop him from 19th to Tampa, a pairing I have had for weeks. I think they see themselves as contenders, so perhaps they aren't willing to use their first pick on a guy who seems destined to have a lingering injury into the season. (Maybe that's a spot for Starks, 19 to Tampa.) Conversely, Josh Simmons seems to have gotten a positive medical evaluation and I'm getting the sense that he will be long gone before 31; he's a legit LT prospect in a draft with virtually none of them. I also really want to find a way to get Egbuka back into Round 1, as this is a proven producer who didn't take a backseat to other outstanding Ohio St. teammates, who interviewed remarkably well with teams, and who is a plus in the run game too because of his well he blocks. I may end up dropping Henderson back out of Round 1 and just slotting Hampton back to Denver, but damn, I really love that Henderson fit for them.
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@Walt Vegas odds now have Jeanty over Graham as the favorite to go at #5. You may want to mention Jeanty as a possibility at that spot. |
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I'm currently banging out my contest mock and have prioritized pinpointing where the QB prospects are going to go and kinda working around that. Here's what I think I think so far: Cam Ward/TEN - Mistake, but inevitable. Shedeur Sanders/PIT - It's simple. Aaron Rodgers wants to start for a contender. PIT is the only realistic option left for him. Rodgers is literally waiting to see if PIT drafts Sanders or Dart, and if they do, he'll retire. I don't care how bloated the OVER number on Sanders' 9.5 O/U gets or how much smoke there is that he'll tumble out of the 1st RD - if Penix and Nix went as high as they did in a much stronger draft, then Sanders is going in the 1st RD, with 1.21 his absolute floor. Jaxson Dart/CLE - Whether it's a trade up from 2.33 or at 2.33, I think Dart will be CLE's target. Dart is this draft's QB analytics darling and no team emphasizes analytics like CLE. Dart is also going to be a bust; drafting QB busts is what the Browns do. I'm getting the feeling that 1.06 could be a sneaky spot for Sanders. Geno Smith is approaching 35 and basically on a one-year deal. O'Connell is on the trading block. Brady has a history with the Sanders family. Sure, if Jeanty pops off at 1.05, the Raiders could pivot to a RT like Membou, Jalon Walker, maybe even Mykel Williams or Tet McMillan, but I think they would consider Sanders just as strongly. The Raiders have quietly been bringing in all the QBs for Top 30s and WOs, too. The Rams might consider Dart, but it's impossible to say because they do their scouting in-season and meet with prospects virtually. I'm going to assume they ride with Stafford/Garoppolo one more year. I think SEA will come out of Day Two with Will Howard or Tyler Shough. If PIT doesn't get Sanders or Dart, then Rodgers signs with PIT and maybe the Steelers grab a Will Howard or Kyle McCord in the 3rd/4th RD. Chris Ballard will ride with AR/Danny Dimes because he's a drunken idiot. The Saints use 3.71 or 3.93 on Quinn Ewers. |
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I really like that ATL/Ersery pick. McGary is a much better run-blocker than pass-blocker, and he's now the blindside protector with the lefty under center. ATL has been scouting OTs heavily during the pre-draft process. I just wonder if Ersery makes it out of the top 40. He's in play for KC and PHI at the bottom of RD 1. I think the Giants might like Milroe, too. There's the Bama connection, and while the Giants aren't winning the SB with that Wilson/Winston QB room, it's the kinda QB situation that suggests a project rookie QB that might need a redshirt season. That seems to point more toward Milroe than Sanders/Dart. Milroe's raw, rushing threat/bazooka-but-inaccurate arm skill set has parallels to early Josh Allen, who Daboll was instrumental in refining in BUF. |
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Nice mock. Only real quibble is that I don't see the Texans going with the specific OL that is Simmons because they seem committed to going for high-character OL's only who offer leadership. I'm thinking of Booker, Zabel if he falls, or maybe Donovan Jackson or Conerly Jr., assuming they go OL. Could see them pivoting to Egbuka (if available) if Booker and Zabel are gone.
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@Mr. Bitter My new mock has Warren going 9th to the Saints instead of Will Johnson, but that is a really difficult pick to pin down because the Saints have so many needs and I don't think they are going to pick a QB. Regardless of who is available at 10, I absolutely think that the Jags should trade down with the Bears and pick up #39 if they can. Graham is not a blue-chipper and it's as simple as that. I don't hate it if they take Jeanty, though. But as I said, I like the current bet of Jeanty +300 to go #5 overall. The odds of his drafted team being the Jaguars is also +300, but I like the odds for him being the #5 pick much better. This is because you'd have two chances to win the bet, one if the Jags just take him, and two if the Bears (or someone else) trades up. Can't win the bet if someone trades up! A couple of other notes: Schrager tweeted tonight that two players that will go earlier than mock consensus are Mykel Williams and Colston Loveland. I already have Williams 11th to SF and Loveland 14th to Indy, so I'm not inclined to change anything right now, but it's worth noting for sure. |
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@pinballer3 I did this exercise to break out of the media regurgitation/groupthink rut that you mentioned. Every year around this time it's the same: All the legitimate information that can be gathered has been gathered, so all that's left for the media is rumor, speculation and flat-out disinformation that gets repeated so often that everyone just kinda accepts it, leading to the top 6 to 8 picks in every mock draft looking exactly the same. And every year, the actual draft looks nothing like the consensus and everybody gets like six to nine 1st RD picks right. I don't want to do that this year. "1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell 5. Graham 6. Jeanty 7. Membou 8. Walker" just isn't how it's going to go down. So I decided to tune out the media stuff until the eve of the draft and focus on going back to the tape, team needs and where the value pockets are for those needs. Because that's exactly what NFL decision-makers are doing right now. |
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@pinballer3 Banks' current 13.5 O/U is poised to drop. The UNDER is getting hammered. I'm not surprised at all. On tape, he's the cleanest LT prospect in the draft. I never understood why he ever dropped outside of the top-10 in mocks. Maybe prospect fatigue...I dunno. He's just so good, clean and consistent that it's boring. I think he's in play for the Jets at 1.07 and wouldn't be shocked if the Pats just picked him over T-Rex at 1.04. Membou at LT is pure projection. I mean, he might be able to, but I see no evidence of it on tape. He plays like a guard. That would be a risky pick for SF if Membou slides. Campbell plays so upright. I don't see him at guard. He'll lose the leverage game in there. I doubt he gets out of the top-10 though. I was on the SF/future LT at 1.11 train for a while, but I'm off it now. Just really think that the 49ers can't afford to f*ck around. They absolutely have to address the DL early and often in this draft. Bosa is all alone. You put that DL out there against the Rams OL, and Stafford eats that defense alive. |
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Well played. Mocks that make you think are more interesting than media regurgitation. I'm now staring at my mock pick of Banks at 11 for SF, wondering if T-REX might fall there. I picked Banks for SF due to his high value OT position, assuming that a pretty good DL/E pick would be there for them in round 2. FanDuel has both OL and DL/E at +180, no help. Hmm...I think Banks is still a good bet, as Graham probably doesn't make it past the Saints. But then, every logical argument is like Swiss cheese. I look forward to your updates.
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@The Champ I mean, if we are going to assume that the new JAX regime is going to just sweep out unproven recent 2nd-rounders drafted by the former regime, then why is nobody talking about JAX trading down and drafting Tyler Warren to replace Brenton Strange? It's not like Trevor Lawrence doesn't need all the help he can get. |
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JAX/Graham is also iffy because Graham is a 3T, not a nose. The Jaguars already have Maason Smith and Arik Armstead at 3T. Sure, Smith was drafted by the former regime, but that was a 2nd RD investment and he's only 22. How do we know for sure that the new Jags coaching staff doesn't like his potential? And it's not like Armstead is a bum. He was miscast as an EDGE last season and will be better back at his natural spot. It's also a nearly $20M dead cap hit to release him, so he's probably not going anywhere soon.
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@The Champ The 1.05 JAX/Graham chalk has always been kinda iffy to me. He's good, but not that good. When I watch the tape of a DT prospect projected to go top five, I expect to see a Suh/Quinnen Williams-type that is consistently pressing the iOL into the QBs lap or on the QB's ass. Graham is not that guy. He's a scrappy, assignment-sure technician that fits the run and creates piles at the LOS, but when you watch the tape, it's Kenneth Grant right next to him that is actually splitting double times and puncturing the backfield more times than not. |
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@Mr. Bitter It really does just make all the sense in the world. They have the extra 2nd, from the fleecing of the Panthers. Graham is not a blue-chipper and someone you stand pat for. If you're Gladstone, this is a gift. I could even see a scenario where Graham drops all the way to 10 for the Jags, though it has to be unlikely. But no matter, if the Jags like the idea of beefing up the DT position, they can just pick Harmon in a draft like this and still have 2 picks high in the 2nd Round.
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Absolutely the WORST mock I've seen for the Eagles. I can buy Simmons in the first, but the Eagles nist oressubg needs are DT (lost Milton Williams) and edge (lost Sweat and Graham). Then there is TE since they're trying to moveon frm Goedert who gets injured every year and safety where they traded Gardner-Johnson WR is not a need and RB is not a need - they're wasted picks. Better TE's available in the 3rd than Fannin. This is a terrible effort.
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It sounds like the Texans may not in favor of Conerly. mostly because of a perceived lack of core strength, which is a need for a tackle and can not necessarily be built over time.
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I like your trade ideas. If Carter somehow slips a bit or if JAX passes on Graham I could see the 'Niners making a move up for one of them. The Giants packaging 2.34 and Thibodeaux to move up into the 1st RD for Sanders makes a lot of sense, too. Just so you know, there's actually a late round/UFA DE prospect from Mizzu in this draft named Johnny Walker Jr. lol |
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@The Champ Yeah, very little can be gleaned from the Combine, Pro Days, where every movement made and every word said has been mapped out by handlers and rehearsed ad nauseam. Teams have to get these QBs in their rooms, on the white board, throw concepts and verbiage at them, really get under the hood. It would be insane to invest in a QB without that baseline of information. Agree with you on the 49ers. (My exercise really did set me straight in a few spots.) SF went from that Bosa/Buckner/Armstead/Jones wrecking crew to Bosa and practice squad guys. That's not gonna stand. Pick 1.11 simply has to be earmarked for D-line. Underrated factor: SF DL coach Kris Kocurek. Stewart, Williams and Nolen are upside prospects in need of refinement. Kocurek is arguably the best in the business. Mason Graham is now 5.5 O/U -110 to the OVER. I'm convinced that CHI is moving up to 1.05 for Jeanty. When you look at how aggressively Poles knocked out the need at EDGE and revamped the O-line during free agency...the two high 2nd rounders...it all points toward a bold Day One move up the board. |
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@The Champ Hopefully Ballard sobers up and comes to his senses. Indy could be dangerous with Sanders under center. |
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I also think this exercise is a good example of why the 49ers really might go DL instead of OL, even though I think Banks (or another OL) would be a perfectly logical fit for them. But the OL is much more functional than the DL, at this time, and since the 49ers probably still see themselves as contenders, and since the DL need is more dire, I'm really starting to think that guys like Stewart/Mykel Williams/Harmon/Nolen will be the pick. And I really don't see Will Johnson being the guy, despite the need at CB also. The 49ers just really seem to prioritize the trenches, and last year the DL was uncharacteristically terrible. They used top 30's on Stewart, Williams, and Nolen. I think my final mock is going to have one of those three guys at 11, unless some strong intel comes out to change my mind.
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Really like this exercise. I especially like it because I couldn't possibly agree with you more that the Colts should take Shedeur Sanders if he's there at 14. Forget everything else. You have a horrific QB situation and Daniel Jones should be a backup. And AR can't throw the ball functionally. Sanders completes passes. You have to do that to have any shot of advancing in the playoffs. AR is the type that can get you a #7 seed because he may not turn the ball over, but you aren't going anywhere against good teams with good defenses if you can't complete passes to keep your offense on schedule. But on the site here, the only QB's that Indy appears to have spent Top 30's on were Ewers and Shough. As I note on my mock about the Saints being highly unlikely to pick Sanders, teams just don't draft 1st Round QB's that they don't meet with. I'm stunned, frankly, that Ballard is staking his job on AR and Jones. And it's why he's going to get fired. And that means a new GM will likely want a new head coach, unless Irsay poaches someone from the Philly front office. |
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Why do you hate the Texans so much. Are you Colts or Jags or worse yet, Titan fans?
Connerly is not a bad selection for the Texans in round 1, if you're not paying attention to the team, they're going interior OL in round 1. They'll make do this year at tackle with Howard, Fisher, Robinson, Brown and Deculus. The Texans can't run the ball between the tackles (Mixon consistently has to jump-cut to the exterior), their interior play has been horrible...they're going to use the run to help the pass, to help the current tackles...they're going to upgrade the interior first. If things go well with their selections in the interior this year and if Fisher (last years 2nd round pick from ND at T) proves he can play adequately or better, going into next year they'll really only need to address 1 T position via free agency or draft. At pick 58 you have the Texans taking a DE to "upgrade the position"??? Over Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter??? Lawrence Taylor would be an upgrade, but not the guy you have at 58 despite him playing in College Station, just up the road. Do you even follow the Texans, at all? At pick 79, despite Nick Caserio, just this past week or so telling the media that at WR they look for separation skills, you have the Texans selecting Beck but write "Beck has separation issues". I see. Wow, just wow. And at pick 89 you have the Texans going LBer. Again, wow, just wow. On a team that might have the best defense (certainly in the discussion) in the NFL but has serious issues at OL and WR you have them taking a T instead of the more pressing area of IOL (despite only 1 IOL off the board at the time, Booker), a WR who can't separate despite the GM saying that separation skills are the first trait he looks for, and the Texans going after 2 defensive players who won't see much playing time because their D is stacked with high quality and depth. Been a big fan of your site for many years but you've obviously dedicated 0 time to the Texans. |
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@42yardline I just don't believe Ward is that much better than Sanders. Neither are transcendent talents, so their NFL success could easily hinge on what kind of situation they're drafted into. TEN is drafting Ward to start immediately...in an offense where Calvin Ridley is the only viable target and Dan freakin' Moore is considered an upgrade for the O-line. Beyond the excellent Sweat/Simmons DT duo, TEN's defense is swiss cheese. If Ward was a lift-all-boats-level QB prospect like Manning/Luck, that would be fine...but he's not. He's not even close. The Titans are setting Ward up to fail. Now let's say Sanders slides and gets drafted by the Rams. In that system, with that supporting cast and the luxury of learning under McVay and behind Stafford for a stretch, I'd be willing to bet mucho cabbage that Sanders would have a more successful career than Ward. As for why I think the Jets should go QB but TEN shouldn't - that's easy. It's because Travis Hunter isn't an alternative for the Jets. Hunter is going to be a truly generational superstar. |
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@Mr. Bitter Clearly, Bitter, you know your football. Just one question: You said you would like your Jets to pick Sanders to replace Fields. Yet you said the Titans should take Hunter #1 overall when they have an incompetent QB in Levis. Why? There is no guarantee that Tennesee can get a legitimate QB in the second round when other QB needy teams can trade into the mid - late first round to get their guys. And, almost certainly, Ward is the best QB option in this draft. |
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@Mr. Bitter Yeah,I never really saw Jeanty dropping to, say, 10. Just too elite of a prospect in a draft without any blue-chippers apart from Hunter and Carter. You were pounding the table for Jeanty to go as high as 4th overall, and while I don't see that (they just really seem committed to fixing their God-awful OL), I wouldn't be shocked in the least if he goes 5th overall. Perhaps the Jags just take him for themselves, if they think there's very little difference between Graham and the DT's that could be there in the early 2nd. Or, perhaps more likely, the Jags are willing to move down and a team comes up to take Jeanty, sniping him away from the Raiders. The Bears obviously come to mind, given that they have two early 2nd Round picks. The other could be Denver, though they'd have to give up a lot more than Chicago would. As for Milroe, sure, I can't say it would surprise me if Pittsburgh took him at 21. It seems like he's not going to drop below either the Browns or Giants in the early 2nd, so who knows. But he's nowhere near pro ready, like, NOWHERE NEAR. So that would mean you run the risk of Mason Rudolph starting for you all year if Rodgers doesn't come. For that reason, I do think they would be more likely to draft Sanders or Dart, if available. (And I think at least one of them will be.) |
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Also: You probably already know, but Ashton Jeanty's draft position O/U went from 9.5 to 6.5 today, still juiced to the UNDER. Mason Graham - whose 5.5 number was like U -250 a week ago - is now EVEN at 5.5.
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@The Champ Think there's any chance the Steelers shock the world and stick-n-pick Milroe? |
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@Mr. Bitter I don't think the Saints are going to go with a QB at 9. If they weren't going to with Carr thought to play the season, if he doesn't now, why would that change anything? They'd only take a guy if they loved them, and at 9, I don't see them liking Dart more than any non-QB. Despite my thoughts that Loomis might really like Sanders because of his accuracy and processing skills, the fact is that they never met with him, and it would be unheard of to take a 1st Round QB that you never met with. It just doesn't work like that. The Steelers met with Dart (and Sanders) and they almost always draft a player they met with on a 30 visit, and with the Rodgers uncertainty, one of those guys is going to be a Steeler, most likely. If it's not Sanders and if he slips as far as, say, 24, that's a perfect trade up spot for the Browns to reunite him with Hunter, and it wouldn't even cost that much to trade up from 33 to 24. If Sanders goes 21st to the Steelers, then a team could trade into 24 for Dart (Browns or Giants, possibly, with the other team then looking at Milroe, perhaps). You could also see the Steelers try to trade up (15?) for one of Sanders/Dart.
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@The Champ Derek Carr is obviously trying to force his way out of New Orleans. I mean, 1.09 has to be a QB, right? (Rattler sucks.) Jeremiah and Albert Breer have both said that they're hearing teams flat-out don't like Sanders in the 1st RD. (Jeremiah literally said, "It's not a rumor, it's a fact".) Dart at 1.09? I watched some Membou film along with Campbell and Banks. I'm not sure if he can play LT. That Combine-verified athleticism shows on tape, but really only when he's moving forward, getting out on the run to block - not in pass pro. It's more like watching a really nimble pulling guard than an OT. He makes sense for the Raiders and Jets as a plug-n-play RT, but so do Aireonte Ersery, Ozzy Trapilo and Emery Jones on Day Two. I wonder if Membou might slide a bit. My issues with Dart go beyond the Kiffin-system stuff. I know it sounds weird, but I get that kinda privileged, Zach Wilson vibe from Dart. The kind of QB personality that doesn't get taken seriously in an NFL locker room and rubs guys the wrong way. |
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@Mr. Bitter Oh, you're right about Banks. And the sense I have is that he's going to go pretty high. I have had him 11th to the 49ers for a while, and in looking at the intel I can gather, he seems to have a chance to go as high as 7th to the Jets, as they could reasonably prefer him to Membou. (New England just seems set on Campbell.) Hell, maybe even 6th to the Raiders if they pass on Jeanty. 6, 7, 9, and 10 could be possibilities for him as well; the Saints at 9, especially, seem to be a total wild card. I don't see him getting past the 49ers at 11, and certainly not past the Dolphins at 13. From what I can gather, the 49ers are looking hard at Banks (or Membou, if he slips) at OL, along with Stewart and Mykel Williams for DL. I'm guessing that Banks has priority for them. As for Dart, I can understand why QB-needy teams like him. Despite playing a lot of college football, he doesn't turn 22 until May. He has a good arm along with good mobility, too. Yes, the offense he played in is probably a concern, given that what he was asked to do was limited. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that he can't process well or couldn't run a more pro-style offense. I like the match with the Steelers now because Rodgers is leaving them in the lurch, they can't think that Mason Rudolph is going to be their starter for the whole season (and hopefully not in Week 1, ha), and from what I gather, the Sanders meeting with them was terrible. |
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@The Champ Yeah, I don't see it with Dart. (Then again, evaluating QBs isn't my strong suit...or the strong suit for some NFL decision-makers going by draft history.) But too many dialed-in guys are guaranteeing Dart goes in the 1st RD. Seems inevitable at this point. Not buying the Tyler Shough stuff for a second, though. That's a 3rd-4th rounder. I'm surprised at how down some experts are on Kelvin Banks. I've been going back to the film over the last few days just to kinda reset after absorbing so much media speculation over the last few weeks, and Banks' LT skill set is as good as any in this class. I like him better than Campbell, honestly. Campbell definitely does the job, but in a very upright, sort of lumbering fashion. Banks' footwork makes Campbell look stuck in the mud by comparison, and I see a lot more getting in that chest and guiding with Banks than with Campbell, who gets away with some catch-and-hug because his anchor is so strong. Just can't figure out why guys have Banks going in the late 1st. Banks' current O/U is 13.5 to the UNDER, but I'm still worried that I'm missing something. Rewatched Shemar Stewart's film. A lot better than you would think. His motor runs hot. He could be a monster. I think he's gonna go higher than people think. |
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@Mr. Bitter Yeah, I thought his mock was strange for sure. I saw him on an Establish The Run podcast yesterday with Adam Levitan and Anthony Amico, and he kept saying that there's no difference between pick 5 and 40 this year. Look, while this year it seems like there are fewer true 1st Round grades on players, it's not THAT bad. Like, Mason Graham is not going at pick #40 lol. I did like much of Amico's thought process. And after some further intel from the likes of he, Scott Smith, and Jeremiah, I'm going to make further changes to the mock today. Golden back at #12 over McMillan, for one. Dart back into the 1st Round, for another. Might move Barron up as well; just think he's too "safe" in a draft with fewer sure things. |
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Some thoughts a week out: For my fellow draft prop odds watchers, am I the only one noticing some weirdness with Armand Membou? There's a lot of recent smoke that the Raiders will take Membou at 1.06 thanks to John Spytek's history of going hard and heavy on the trenches while at TB (including Wirfs, a similar prospect to Membou) and Dane Brugler's newest mock that pairs LV/Membou. Yet Membou's 6.5 O/U odds continue to bloat to the OVER and are currently at -400. If Membou makes a ton of sense for the Jets, then why doesn't he make a ton of sense for the Raiders? Or has Membou been overrated all along and is poised to slide? Some predictions: JAX will take Jeanty at 1.05. BPA. It's all about helping out Trevor Lawrence for the new regime. I get that Mason Graham is a tidy fit, but there should be good DT value available to JAX at 2.36. (Walter Nolen, Tyliek Williams, Alfred Collins, T.J. Sanders, maybe even Kenneth Grant or Derrick Harmon.) Shemar Stewart goes top-10. CAR opts for Mason Graham, Mykel Williams or Shemar Stewart over Jalon Walker, or trades down with a team looking to jump NO for a QB. Walker drops to the teens, perhaps to ARI to join Deone Bucannon, Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins in their line of 1st RD 'tweener busts. If the Broncos go RB in the 1st RD, they'll opt for TreVeyon Henderson over Omarion Hampton. Darkhorse options for DEN: Walter Nolen and Derrick Harmon. If Hampton slides to the Chiefs at 1.31, they'll take him. The Colts will not draft a TE at 1.14. They'll draft Grey Zabel or Shedeur Sanders. PHI will select Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Mason Taylor or Nic Scourton. The recent Tyler Shough buzz fizzles out as he slides to Day Three. |
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Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect. Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth? "...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft" The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early. "...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle" This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL. Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.
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@42yardline For the Jets, my approach to the draft would be completely different than how Mougey and Glenn will approach it because they appear to be committed to Justin Fields at QB. Fields greatly limits what you can do on offense and isn't going to lead us to the playoffs. So the answer to your question is Shedeur Sanders. |
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@Mr. Bitter Nice quote Bitter. I hope by the end of round 2 Bill's owner Terry Pegula is saying "We had a great day." So, Bitter, who do you want your Jets to pick in round 1? Will Campbell? Armand Membou? |
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@The Champ For sure. Watts especially. Geno Stone is a cap casualty waiting to happen. Watts is going to be coveted by FS-needy teams looking to win now. After Malaki Starks, Watts is the only FS prospect ready to start. |
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@The Champ If MIA goes CB, I'm guessing it would be Johnson over Barron. Barron's lack of length will likely keep him mostly in the slot in the NFL. MIA just re-signed slot CB Kader Kahou a few days ago, and while he's not great, he's the best corner MIA has assuming Ramsey gets traded. They'd have nothing at boundary CB. Drafting Will Johnson almost makes too much sense for Grier. He gets weird when drafting corners (Cam Smith, Noah Igbinoghene, Cordrea Tankersley). Beginning to wonder if Will Johnson could tumble. No forty at his workout yesterday, and was reportedly clocking 4.59ish during training. Straight-line speed is a serious issue. |
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@Mr. Bitter It just occurred to me for the first time today that Al Golden is the new DC for the Bengals, so I wonder if Watts and Morrison could be 2nd Round targets for them. You know, the obvious Golden/Notre Dame connection. That could be right in range for both of those guys.
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@Mr. Bitter They should, but we both know that isn't happening because Grier (and McDaniel) don't have that kind of job security. I agree though, this year could be truly ugly for them, especially if Tua misses games again. I don't know how they pass on Will Johnson or Barron now. I'm hoping that Barron falls to my Rams at 26, however.
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Pick #203....JC Davis, OT, Illinois. He isn't even in the draft. Going back to Illinois for his final year of eligibility. |
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@coachcarlvice I forgot that ATL traded up for Ruke. Oof. Onyemata is 32 and would be a painless cap casualty, but your point stands. Ruke is the NT for better or for worse. That's crazy to me, but - like you said - ATL is kind of a mess. Drafting a local prospect in the 1st RD just to appease the fan base would also be crazy, but I could see them doing it. For what it's worth, Stewart is currently at -2000 to be drafted in the 1st RD at DraftKings Sportsbook. |
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For the Eagles i would pick Walter Nolen instead. We can get a developmental tackle in the later rounds.
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Ain't no way San Francisco is picking that late. They have become a complete dumpster fire .
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You're hilarious if you think San Francisco and Miami are going to be picking that late. They'll finish around the 500 mark if they're lucky.
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@Mr. Bitter I stopped thinking about what the Falcons are doing, I don't even think they know at this point. I agree that Grant would be an amazing pick but with Morgan Fox and David Onyemata locked into the 3-4 DE spots. Ruke's only path to playing time is at nose. He was awful last year but Raheem can't bench him. They traded up in the 2nd to take him over Newton, Fiske, and Sweat and that would be even more egg on their face. Their EDGE guys are weak at best. The media pressure here in ATL to take a UGA player and EDGE is immense after the Cousins botch and questionable front office practices. I look for the Falcons to try to smooth over the fanbase with Williams or Walker. Remember the Falcons only have 3 picks in the first 7 rounds. They have to get starters with all 3 because their cap situation is awful and they still have to extend Bijan and Drake. |
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@42yardline Honestly, "Travis Hunter no matter what" is what the Titans should be saying. |
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@Mr. Bitter Halleluia if Will Johnson falls to the Bills. That would be a big and welcome draft day surprise. Speaking of Draft Day - that movie was on TV the other night. I never get sick of seeing that (especially when it is on a week or two before the real draft. |
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I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying. Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD. ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd. |
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@42yardline Revel is already 24 yet still raw, press-man boundary only and has had awful injury luck going back to H.S. I'm not convinced that he sneaks into the 1st RD like some mocks are predicting. Will Johnson didn't run a forty at his workout for NFL scouts yesterday, and there are reports that he was clocking forty times in the high 4.5s during training. He could slide. He'd be a great fit opposite Benford in BUF's zone-heavy scheme. |
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Jalen Ramsey now joining Tyreek Hill on the trading block. Lost veteran leaders Armstead, Campbell and Holland. QB is one big hit away from retirement. The Grier/McDaniel contention window is shut. MIA has sneaky potential to be the worst team in the league this season. They should just tear it down.
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Currently, the Bills only have one starting caliber CB. Since Buffalo is one of the leading Super Bowl contenders in the 2025 season, they need an excellent CB from the college ranks. Shavon Revel (Charlie's choice) suffered a torn ACL 7 months ago. That injury requires a 2 year recovery process before the player is back at full strength. If Revel does play this coming season he will be nowhere near 100%. This would be a poor choice for the Bills this year. |
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This site still has the Jets picking at 92. But the pick belongs to the Seahawks.
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Why is the 2025 site draft contest cutoff on 4/22 at 7:45 pm when the draft is on 4/24?
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@Mr. Bitter I've always wanted the Bills to take DT Grant, but they would have to move up to get him. Tyleik Williams would be my next choice - great run stuffer (which Buffalo needs badly) and he can put pass rush pressure up the middle to get into Mahomes and other quarterbacks faces. The Bills do need to get another starting CB relatively early. Christian Benford was a great find in the 6th round a few years ago but the other starting CB spot is a concern. Even if they were to resign Rasul Douglas again he would only be a stop-gap. He did not have a good season last year, and he is not getting any younger. There should still be some good CBs available near the end of round 2. You can't expect to catch lightning in a bottle again if you wait until late in the draft. |
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@The Champ That's the thing about the draft - the picks that ruin everyone's mocks are the ones that had zero smoke. (ATL/Penix) We get so caught up in filtering out worthwhile nuggets from the constant stream of pre-draft speculation that we forget to consider what's not being said. |
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@Mr. Bitter Sanders could do what Tua is doing for Miami quite easily. The Dolphins are so scared of Tua taking another hard hit and being out for his career that they just throw everything as fast as possible. You're telling me Sanders couldn't execute that? I know that's just one team, but yeah, I feel like he can come in and play right away for someone. And despite speculation, I don't see the Saints full-on tanking. It's just not how they have operated, and there isn't a strong team in that division. Playing .500 football has given you a chance to win that division for 3-4 years in a row, and it just so happens that it's Tampa Bay that has pulled it off. If Loomis sees Drew Brees-lite, he's going to take him. And I, too, wouldn't rule out Sanders to the Jets, I suppose. I will not predict it unless there's significant smoke for it, however. |
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@The Champ 100% agree on SEA, even after the whatever Drew Lock signing. Schneider is coming out of this draft with a developmental QB. With all that Day Two currency, the Seahawks should be able to easily work the board for their target QB, whether it's Sanders in the 1st, Shough or Howard later on, whatever. Sanders/SEA feels like a super-obvious match that everyone is willfully ignoring for some reason. I've come around on Sanders a bit. He's obviously over-hyped, but when you ignore the noise, temper expectations and just concentrate on his on-field strengths, it's easy to see him thrive in a Shanahan-tree, rhythm/YAC system. Sanders is undeniably tough as hell, too. That's no small factor for a QB. Another sneaky Sanders spot to watch out for is 1.07 and my Jets. I'm not buying the "we're all in on Justin Fields" stuff. He's freakin' Justin Fields. NY's new OC just came from DET and built a scoring machine around Jared Goff, whose game is comparable to Sanders'. I'm completely baffled as to what CLE's plan is at QB. Flacco/Pickett reeks of TANK JOB, but you don't give Myles Garrett that bag if you're planning on tanking. I've (kinda) given up on the TEN/CLE/Ward trade thing, so now I have no idea what the Browns will do at QB. Maybe JAX trades up to 1.02 for Travis Hunter, then the Browns mega-reach for Dart at 1.05? Just no clue. |
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@petermwb The info on Mike Green has been out there for a while now. I'm sure NFL teams vetted the situation months ago. (Except maybe the Bengals...they're so old-school and cheap I'm pretty sure Duke Tobin's draft prep is little more than a Lindy's Draft magazine and a pen.) Green's current draft position O/U is 17.5 to the under. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't go in the 1st RD. Wouldn't be shocked if he went as high as 1.08 to the Panthers. |
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@Mr. Bitter Just keep in mind that Dart has met with Pittsburgh on a top 30 and that Milroe hasn't. At least, not yet. Much more often than not, the Steelers have top 30's with their eventual 1st Round pick. So I'll be watching there to see if that changes. I don't see Dart's arm strength being a problem, personally, and it's certainly no worse than Pickett's arm, right? (I have other concerns with Dart, of course, but that's another story.) Totally agree that Sanders' best landing spot would be the Rams. I think he is actually good and behind a good OL and great coach with good weapons around him, yeah, I think he would be very interesting there in 2026. They'd have to trade up for him, as I find it hard to believe that he would get past the Steelers at 21. I could see the Panthers at 8 being a trade-up spot for Sanders, to jump the Saints at 9. And here's a darkhorse candidate to take a QB: Seattle. Darnold's contract is effectively a 1-year deal if they want it to be, and John Schneider made public comments that pushed back on the notion that this year's QB class is underwhelming. After watching Atlanta take Penix last year after giving a QB a $100MM guarantee in free agency, I can't say that Seattle taking a QB would surprise me in the least. |
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the following under the radar players will become stars in the NFL, not for long league. 1 tai felton wr maryland 2 bhayshul tuten rb virginia tech 3 rj harvey rb ucf 4 harold fannin jr te bowling green |
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@Mr. Bitter i heard that mike green has sexual assult type problems. have no idea if that is real or just made up by some women somewhere, not good news just 2 weeks before the draft.
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which ever team drafts the following players, will regret the pick 1 jaden milroe 2 quin ewers 3 will howard 4 luther burden 5 isaiah bond 6 colston loveland |
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@woo hoo I was just about to say - wasn't Hunter the no.1 overall recruit in his class? The talent is inherent, I hope Cleveland takes him at no.2 |
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After the 3rd round, I wonder what the point is of writing "the Colts get some cornerback depth" or "the Packers get some wide receiver depth" after every pick, since that is obviously what is happening from the pick itself.
It would be actually interesting to read about why players not in the top 400 on the consensus big board are going in your 3rd round (D'Eryk Jackson), or why guys in the consensus top 100 are falling to your 7th round (Dylan Sampson). It will be interesting to see if those picks are close to right, and it does make me want to know if you have information on those guys that most analysts don't have.