Site Comments

@JRO60 

Thanks for the heads up.  It wasn't Charlie.  Something went wrong with my process in pushing his latest version up.  Its fixed now.

@42yardline 

AJ Brown wouldn't be able to deal with being WR2 in NY. First things first: Our inevitable overpay for Malik Willis or trade for Mac Jones or Kyler Murray.

@Billl2021 

Darnold basically said it isn't a big deal, but I've got my eye on the injury reports and for any indication that the sharps smell blood.

@broncoselway

Is everyone in Denver as ignorant as you? Calling the Bills a losing franchise and the Broncos winners is just pure, unadulterated gibberish.

Let's talk about FACTS:

Since 2018 the Bills have won 89 games while Denver has won 62. That's 67.4 % for the Bills and 46.6 % for the Broncos.

My friend, perhaps some day you will learn that FACTS tell the true story.

No commenrs on Darnold’s oblique or Collins’ concussion. An update would be nice.

Must be Walt’s day off.

@Mr. Bitter 

Sound logic on your Saturday Divisional pcks, I agree. Also, your Jets have some money to spend and the need is there- should the Jets trade for A.J. Brown or do you think he would be reading too much Grisham and Baldacci while on the bench?

@WFDevTeam 

RJ Harvey sure doesn't run mean. He runs tentatively and inefficiently. I don't think DEN will be able to fully take advantage of BUF's greatest weakness.

@WFDevTeam 

SEA has been so consistent under MacDonald. I thought SEA -7 was on the nose for a bit, but then I figured that SEA beat SF by 10 in Frisco, and now SEA is rested and at home. Also: SEA gets back Cross, while SF loses Kittle. Unless Darnold implodes, I just see SEA giving SF a workmanlike beating.

@broncoselway 

I get paranoid by made up stories in my head such as 'doesn't the league want Josh Allen to win this game?'

@Mr. Bitter 

Walt's take away from the Broncos Packers game isn't the same as mine.  At the beginning of that game I remember the Broncos getting into the Packers faces about something.  They strike me as a 'mean' team.  Its not my favorite look in sports but usually teams with a streak of mean to them fair well.  Enough for me to not want to touch that game.

I do think SF is around because the Eagles offense self-destructed.  SEA has shown they won't do that.  The number looks on the money though.  Wouldn't be surprised if SEA wins by 7 on the dot.    

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.

SEA -7

I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.

@Mr. Bitter 

Good one, Bitter. You always have a timely comment.

@broncoselway 

Jax killed your Broncos, and we just beat Jax. Do the math.

@broncoselway 

Fortune cookies are wrong all the time.

my pick of the Divisional round:

10 degrees, 10-20 mph winds, Stafford's bad finger, Rams playing in weather they are not used to.

Under 48.5

@Billl2021 

Just my view, but I see no value in factoring stats from previous seasons to make picks on what is going on this season. The past is the past.

Don't mean to knock you for picking Pitt over Hou in the Wildcard round, but Pitt's Monday night record of 38-10 over the years is not a valid reason to pick them - this year is this year.

@broncoselway 

If anyone is going to do the smoking its the red-hot Josh Allen. Bo Nix vs, Allen - are you kidding me?? Walter said it best- Denver barely wins against weak opponents - he picked Buffalo for 8 units in this weekend's Divisional games.

I'll bet you the world famous Buffalo wings against whatever Denver is known for (unbreathable air) ?

Just one whiff ATS so far this weekend, and -of course - it was my lone money game. (Thanks, Eagles. Jesus.) I'm with Walt tonight and like PIT to win SU. 

I know PIT should have lost to BAL. I know about Anderson and Hunter screaming off the EDGE. I know about Stingley and Lassiter at the boundaries. The thing is - and as Walt described - the PIT offense will be attacking the HOU LBs and safeties with quick shots to Gainwell and the TEs...and the HOU LBs and safeties can be had in coverage. (Especially To'oTo'o, a miserable coverage LB.) 

I'm not sold on the Texans, and this is a spot (home dogs, MNF, getting disrespected a lil' bit-type game) where PIT traditionally cashes. Unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will drag HOU into a low-scoring brawl in which the Steelers and their formidable front seven will gain confidence by the minute. PIT by a Boswell FG.

PIT 20 HOU 17 

@petermwb 

Word is that Miami (FL) is trying to lure Ty Simpson back to college after losing out on Sam Leavitt. 

It's impressive to see the Niners go as far as they have gone with the injuries they've endured. It's like a boat with several leaks still managing to win races. 

Losing Kittle yesterday HURTS bad. No matter how far they go, it won't be the same without Kittle. Luckily he's got those Little Ceaser's ads. 

For the Browns (01/12/25A)  @6 no to Proctor.  He's another lazy Alabama bust waiting to happen.  Tate would be my pick here as he is available.

Then @24 A DE that will be available in the 3rd.  World would be my pick.

@woo hoo 

#1 reason not to take teams with with to much money on them. That game was controlled by the refs. Everytime Eagles would get going they were getting hit with a holding call. Then the PI late in the game was BS. Just my take. 

@Mr. Bitter 

Jacksonville gave that game away. They could have run the ball on the outside the whole game. They were picking up 8 yards a carry on the outside. Also after Allen was hurt they never pressured him. I would of put pressure on him every play. Oh well onto the next one.

@Mr. Bitter 

I actually think in order the priority would be to get rid of 

1. Hurts 

2. AJ Brown

3. OC/HC

4. Barkley

@WFDevTeam

You know your team well.

@iEatCrayons 

A.J. Brown for sure has gotta go.

I can't get over how lethargic PHI looked on offense at times. 

Josh Allen is a beast in the playoffs. Great playoff games so far this weekend. But Lawrence was no match for Allen (although it was a back and forth game). Lawrence at home threw 2 picks while Allen completed 80% with no picks.

Allen has said he wants to play for a very long time. I'm sure his future opponents don't want to hear that. Get him a couple of good receivers (or even one) and the Bills will be a major player for quite a few years to come.

Sorry Bills haters, but this is just the truth.

@WFDevTeam 

Damn Sorry about PHI here.  I really think Hurts just got low football IQ and also coaches not helping him out.  Time to clean house.  

@broncoselway 

a bit premature.  4 games to go.  No matter what its a bit surprising both games went the way the betting public's way yesterday.  Let's see how today goes.

@Billl2021 

I get the splits and I don't trust the BUF defense at all. (Although news that Van Lanen is OUT may create more wiggle room for Rousseau and Bosa.) I just envision a healthy Allen and Cook going wild and simply outscoring JAX. Non-bet, though.

@Billl2021 

Thanks. I figured the Bears would keep the 4th quarter magic going vs. GB. That ride is over, though. The Bears are going to get Saquan Barkleyed to death next weekend, especially with T.J Edwards OUT.

@Mr. Bitter 

 In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills' defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). 

@Mr. Bitter 

Great job on both games yesterday. That Bears game was one for the ages!

@Mr. Bitter 

McDermott is 0-5 in road playoff games. And home teams are 10-3 in wildcard playoffs the past year. 

@woo hoo 

Coen was a great hire. But this is his first playoff game, and I can't shake the feeling that the Jags peaked too early - and against a cupcake stretch of schedule. 

I love the young, foundational pieces along the JAX front seven, but Allen/Cook present a challenge unlike JAX has seen. 

This is not to say I'm confident that the Bills will win. It's all predicated on Allen being healthy, and that's not a given. I also don't like a BUF defense that may need to put an extra man in the box just to help their weak LBs vs. Etienne, which would open up the JAX passing game. Hell, I don't even like that JAX has such a pronounced advantage at kicker. 

All I know is this: If healthy, Allen could easily put the Bills on his back. The Bills went over 26.5 points in all three of their playoff games last year, and have done so in 7 of their last 9 playoff games. The Jags haven't had to worry about a QB that can put up those kinda points for an eternity.

its kind of a thin quarterback draft. it looks like one quarterback deep, with a lot of pretend type quarterbacks. here is the list.

1 fernando mendoza--this guy looks like the 2nd coming of peyton manning. a total stud with a great accurate arm. great player.

2 dante moore--was exposed vs indiana as a guy not ready for prime time. has the skill set, not a NFL starter yet, his draft stock should have dropped after the terrible game vs indiana, but the desperate jets, jets, jets will take him in round one. 

3 ty simpson-nice arm, great athlete who is a very good runner. but not ready for prime time. be lost to indiana 38-3. three points will not cut it. needs another year of college football, but the dope already declared, will go in top 10 picks since the qb draft is so weak. 

4 garrett nussmeier- this guy has a nice arm, not strong but is accurate. he is too small, not ready for NFL and injury prone. will be career back-up type.

5 john mateer--very good athlete but is primarily a running type quarterback. cannot make a living in the pocket, so he nfl career not too promising.

6 carson beck--this guy is a mutt, very below average athlete, and throws a lot of picks. whoever drafts this guy will regret the decision and wonder why they drafted him.

7 trinidad chambilss--not ready for prime time, too short at 6' 0". will just fade away in the pros, good college player, but not an nfl quarteback.

8 drew allar--a bust at the college level, so what are the chances he makes it in the NFL? answer, no chance, zero, a waste of a draft pick. 

9 cade klubnik--a small guy, very average type player, career back-up at best.

  

 

@woo hoo 

I kinda have agree here.  Not saying Jax Run D isn't good but there a good Risk/Reward on Cook on this game.  Jax hasn't faced good QB/RB combo since the bye, atleast nothing close to Allen/Cook.  They played bad QBs (as Mr.Bitter noted) and then blew out bad teams, that is a big contribution to their leading Run D. 

Tough betting today... but do think Cook will Cook.
Cook +80 RushYds, +105 Combo Yards, +18.5 attempts
(Also got Barkley +80 RushYds)

I think the Bears game is a trap.  I don't get why the Bears aren't favored.  Or that the line hasn't moved to favor them.  There are games with lines that feel obvious to me and then in retrospect felt like a trap.  Something is up here.    

I with Walt on the Rams.  That line makes sense.  Wouldn't surprise me if it ends up a push at 10.  But I think the Rams make a statement they should be the favorites to win it this year.  Not the Seahawks.

@mcklbrown_1 

point taken.  I may even do something about it over the next week.

@Mr. Bitter 

Regarding CHI, I have similar view about CHI RUN.  The weird thing is CHI finished in TOP 5 in 2025 for rushing attempts... past 3 games bottom 4,  and also factoring Ben Johnson style, their OL, WR injuries, etc.  CHI seem to move away from their run game.  I dunno...

I feel CHI will (hope) Run today and win.

My Bets today
CHI ML
LAR HT/FT + CHI +6.5
Puka +89.5 Yds

</p>

@Mr. Bitter - Great write-up
I teased Jags on the opening +1.5 line to get +7.5 and that felt like a gift. Now that the Bears are +1.5 in a windy home game I feel the same way. Anything can happen but teasing CHI +7.5 is a big money play for me. GL

Saturday Predictions

I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.

CAR +10.5

We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.

All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy. 

Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense. 

LAR 31 CAR 24

CHI +1.5

Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.

Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.

Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.

CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>

;

m>

&lt;strong>t;&lt;/p>

@Billl2021 

Hmmm. Allen's foot?

I'm not sold on the Bills or anything, but Allen is beast in the playoffs when healthy. And I like BUF's O-line/running game better than JAX's. My point with my original post about JAX was that their level of competition since their bye may have as much to do with their winning streak as Jakobi Meyers and Cole Van Lanen. Talk that they'll come out of the AFC seems a bit much, especially with all the drops at WR and Brian Thomas Jr. still MIA.

@Mr. Bitter 

Money is coming in on the Jags. They have moved to -1.5 now

@Mr. Bitter 

Jags are a solid home team and the Bills struggle on the road. Plus Bills OC Joe Bradley has been talking to teams about head coaching positions. I remember Ben Johson doing the same last year during the playoffs and the Lions got embarrased.

@WFDevTeam 

Speaking of trends...C.J Stroud in the cold and PIT's MNF record are more reason to think the Steelers might win SU. Trends are flimsy, but unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will only gain confidence as long as the game is close.

Arthur Smith has Rodgers getting rid of the ball and out to the RBs and TEs so quickly that it might mitigate the damage Anderson/Hunter can do. 

The AFC is wide open and there needs to be a feel-good, playoff narrative...why not old man Rodgers making one last playoff run?

@DoctorJ 

I can't see Rodgers having a good day and Houston's defense has the swagger of a defense that can carry a team to the Super Bowl.  But the Steelers are a team I'm wary of.  They are consistently inconsistent.  Will lose when it seems they shouldn't.  Will win when it seem they shouldn't.  I'm talking not just this year.  Now they haven't made it past the first round since 2017...but like all trends...does that mean they are due to win one?  I'm leaving that one alone.    

@DoctorJ 

PIT's D-line is pretty good, too. They're just behind HOU in D-line WAR and are the only team with 4 players in PFF's top 30 pressure rankings. HOU's Anderson/Hunter are the best EDGE duo in the NFL, but Watt/Highsmith are up there, too. EDGE3 Herbig would start for some teams, Heyward is playing out of his mind right now and Harmon is coming on. I agree that the HOU DL will be a problem for PIT, but I could see the PIT front - finally healthy -dominating HOU's O-line. Could easily be a low-scoring slop-fest...a game script the Steelers love. 

@iEatCrayons 

As I'm an Eagles fan I almost never would choose their game as the one I like the most.  I do like in Walt's analysis how he notes the 49ers offense may be overrated based on what it can do against weaker defense.  Defense is a place where its easy to underrate its impact.  Good to be on the side that has the edge there.   

I feel best about the Jags.  A team on the rise against what feels like a known commodity.  But seems like the public is already aware of this.  

For the record I don't gamble. I participate in the FadeBackContset and am content simply making predictions and seeing how I do.  The league has so many unpredictable results some of which only seem to make sense when you look at the line.  Some of which are injuries in the game type stuff that there is no way to account for it. On top of the players having good games and bad games. 

The Rams game feels good to me.  I now the spread is big but I can't see LA easing up here unless they get up by 20 and even then I could see stafford doing enough to keep Carolina out of reach 

@Qb1frink 

The mocks get more accurate as the draft gets closer and more information becomes available.  Walt and Charlie will hone in as fast as other experts do as it does.

Media at large is a tough business.  Think how many sites have come and gone over 20 years.  The Pittsburgh Gazette is shuttering from what I saw.  Many of the websites that are nicer are smaller parts of larger companies.  Not a word of content Walt or Charlie produces is made exclusive behind a paywall.  We do offer all this content available here ad-free, and on out subdomain ad-free for $8 a month.  And we're not thriving but more treading water here.  

@WFDevTeam 

I hear you...  i fully agree that PHI offense is bad but my opinion they will (slightly) turn it up - Hurts/Barkley running more on a backup LB team.  

Now for SF - williams and pearsall not practicing.  Is Kittle fully healthy? Is Purdy?  Yikes.  Remember PHI held Buf@Home for 12 pts.. Buf scored an AVG of 31.6 in last 5 games outside of vs PHI.

@WFDevTeam --- if this isn't your best bet for weekend, what is your best bet?  Curious...  

Flu is apparently making its way through the NE locker room.

Any Super Bowl predictions?

@WFDevTeam 

PHI's problems are nothing the return of Lane Johnson can't cure. (PHI 18-28 in games Johnson hasn't played.) 

I'm with IEatCrayons - PHI is rested and should TCB. With the loss of Tatum Bethune, the 'Niners are down to practice-squadders Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow at LB. The injury-ravaged SF front seven will be dominated by the PHI O-line.

Best Pick for Wildcard Weekend?

PHI -3, I got this earlier in week and pounded it.  SF is beat up and got physically beaten last Sunday - down 2 more LBs and others - I mean is Purdy ok vicious last play hit.  PHI basically had a week off and players coming back.

I do like LAR but -10 is much.  I did bet FT/HalfTime LAR though with PHI ML.

The Chargers had more interceptions than passing TDs allowed yet their CBs are weak?

Second team all pro CB, two great second year ones, decent safety unit.

Interior OL is the need.

@42yardline 

That's not boring Walt has been doing it all season and he is up. I can't see past the 33 -10 record Steelers have on Monday nights. Best of luck!

@WFDevTeam

Nice Call here..  didn't give enough credit to PIT.