Site Comments
18 Comments (last 3 days):
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The Buffalo game isn't meaningless, regardless of what happens with NE this week. Even if NE wins, if BUF wins both of there last 2 games and NE loses next week, BUF takes the division. And if they take the division in that way and Denver loses next week, BUF actually gets the #1 overall seed. The only reason they wouldn't have something to play for this week is if NE wins and they assume that NE will beat Miami next week. That's not a bad assumption, but it seems crazy to make decisions about who is playing based on an assumption, no matter how good the assumption seems. Of course, Allen's injury could be bad enough that the chance of aggravating it isn't worth it even knowing that sitting him could ruin their chances at the #1 seed, but that's different than saying the game is meaningless to them.
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Best Bets for BAL vs GB (In order) GB-2.5 - Not sure, but I've seen GB with willis its smart, tight, calculated. BAL with Hundley has to be coached and managed but Henry does scare me if he gets going but I think he is over the hill. Overall, GB plays a smart game and wins.. I feel the GB WRs is gonna sneak a long play here and there. |
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Damn Hubert is a beast... seriously. He's a top 3 QB. Lucky my bet survived, the run game (and Penalty) came through enough at the end. |
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@WFDevTeam I got HOU on this one but lightly... main thing 2 things for me is In a Defensive game, these are gonna be the difference, pts off TOs - Hou can Run better to mostly avoid these higher risk situations. |
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@WFDevTeam I'm thinking the same. A lot is being said about Anderson/Hunter vs. that banged-up LAC O-line. More should be said about Mack/Tuipulotu vs. that banged-up HOU O-line. HOU's showing vs. the Raiders scares me. The Texans can be had vs. the run. If Ashton Jeanty can run all over HOU, so should Omarion Hampton. LAC 20 HOU 17 |
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What's the thinking for HOU vs. LAR? HOU hasn't done well against teams that can play defense is my thinking
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@iEatCrayons Yeah, I'm probably overthinking this. The Jags are in a lather. Think I'm still reeling from the wallet-draining bet I made on SEA/IND, where I assumed Rivers would lay an egg. That loss was more about me underestimating the flat spot for SEA than anything Rivers did though. It's looking like the Colts could be without Raimann along with Bortolini. This might be the week Rivers gives us the turnover/sack fest I anticipated vs. SEA. Rivers will need to get it out quick, so I expect Josh Downs to have a productive day in the slot. (Garbage time/no Jourdan Lewis) |
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@Mr. Bitter I hear you about IND BD injuries, not insignificant but overall younger DBs (Jones) can do well. Key is JAG D even without Lewis is much better (much) than SF D missing 3-4 stars with like 0 pass rush. They are last in Sacks (18) the 2nd last place has (25 Sacks) 38% more sacks. Admit Rivers played very well but I think that is a 1 off. 1st half crazy stats. 2nd H back to normal 58 QB rating. Add IND D is terrible (Buckner also out now - but Sauce back hmmm), JAG #1 Run D. Win by less than TD. Sign me up - multiple times. |
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@iEatCrayons Rivers should have picked a softer part of the schedule to carry out this come back of his.
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“ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes” why was this attack necessary??? It added nothing to the post! This was blatantly racist!!
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@iEatCrayons Was sniffing around JAX, but the injuries in their secondary have me hesitant. Rivers has been more competent than I anticipated. CIN feels like a clean play. There's always a chance Brissett/McBride go nuclear and we see a full-on shoot-out including the back door, but ARI's depth chart is just so decimated. The Cardinals may have already checked out. |
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@iEatCrayons CAR +7.5 Just such a lousy spot for SEA coming off that fluky W vs. LAR and the Niners on deck Week 18. Last time SEA played LAR, they only beat TEN by 6 the following week. CAR may be overrated and inconsistent, but they're better than the Titans. (Wins vs. LAR, GB, TB.) I feel like 5.5 - 6 should be the number here. CAR is 9-4 ATS as home dogs under Canales, and 4-2 SU their last six at home. CAR is no great shakes defensively, but they match up well w/SEA, as CAR is 1st in the NFL vs. play action and 1st in play action yards allowed. SEA's passing game is predicated on play action (#1 in the NFL). Jaycee Horn - while inconsistent - is capable of keeping JS-N relatively under control. Bryce Young has been inconsistent, but has stepped up in difficult matchups this season, especially late-game. He has 10 TDs to 2 INTs over his last 5 contests, and has an 8:1 TD-to-INT rate, 102.5 passer rating and 5-0 record vs. teams with top-10 pressure ratings this season. SEA 24 CAR 20
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Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes should be in the hot seat next season, if not sooner. The former’s schtick ain’t working, and the latter has had less than stellar drafts, especially trading up for reaches, and now has to navigate through cap Hell for some of the overpays he’s given.
Finally, Sheila needs to prove she’s a real owner and not a rubber stamp like her father was, and demand accountability for this regression. I wouldn’t mind one iota if she cleaned house after next week’s inevitable defeat. |
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Top Picks for the week. I only have 1 game that I really like unlike the previous weeks. Which was a game I was betting on even in the look ahead.
JAX vs IND. Same story as last week with SF. JAX will score and IND can't keep up esp with a much better JAX D. Plus, Rivers is gonna feel wore down week after week (+ short week) and IND D is overrated not that most think it's good but public does know how it's bottom 5 D now. Since I didn't like many other games, I probably overbet this one... but did have some on CIN-7, PIT -3, LAR -6 |
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The Saints have the only secondary in the league who didn't allow a 100 yard receiver this season the last thing they need round 1 is a corner. After trading Shaheed + releasing Cooks it was blatantly obvious they're going WR and now that super rookie Tyler Shough is battling with McMillan for OROY, resulting in wins, the Saints will probably be picking 10,11,or 12. Tyson will most likely be taken so Tate will be a perfect complementary piece to Olave. Both Ohio State Buckeyes by the way.
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Hello Charlie, I’m looking at your list of centers for the 2026 nfl draft. I’m looking for the starting center for the University of Virginia who’s name is Brady Wilson and was the second team all-ACC CENTER. I do not see him on any draft lists. Why is he being overlooked for the draft? Any information you can provide is greatly appreciated. Thanks! |
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Hi Walt, Long time lurker, have been a part time Debacled member since the site problem, and probably 17 of your 22 years. After Saturday, you were up 1980 units. 6 of that was ATS. (BTW, I locked in at -1.5 Thurs), but I digress. I look at your prop bets and live bets after the fact, I would love to see a similar recap of your thought process for +3 wins and losses. You absolutley nailed Saturday, and yet you ended up 11 on ATS (+5 more) and yet ended +6. Would love to see commentary? |
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The Niners have shown they still have some life left in them after their matchup with the Colts. Exactly how well will they fare against a team with a stronger defense will be the question.
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@Billl2021 I'm staying far away from this game. Not touching this at all. Was just noting the line movement in like 10 days. This game was available for betting like month(s) in advance. These KC fans yikes. |
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@iEatCrayons Be careful with that chiefs game. Broncos have to play the Chargers for home field the following week. If the Chargers beat the Texans. Sounds trappy, maybe throw in a teaser with Jags. |
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@Billl2021 Admittedly, Rivers played much much better then I would of imagined. I didn't think a 44 year old, poor mobility with weak arm could have so much success vs SF DB. No Pass Rush is one thing, Rivers barely needed to move. Although, Rivers + WR quickness surprised me, in the end as I thought IND needed a "perfect game" to cover. That being said I bet before the MNF game - JAX vs IND. Took the Half/Full on JAX. I'm betting on 44 year old hurting after not playing for 5 years - on shorter week + JAX will actually make him run/throw. Note: That KC/DEN game was -4.5 for KC 2 weeks ago, -5.5 DEN 1 hr before Sunday kickoff. Now -13 DEN. wow. |
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@iEatCrayons Good call on 49ers and Taylor. It is always hard to go against line movement, but I figured Rivers already had his magical day against the Hawks. |
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Damn... Gotta take SF -4 now. IND lost 4 in a row, SF wins 4 in a row. I feel IND gotta play mistake free to beat -4 with the way SF can score. I think good risk/reward here.
Also, J.Taylor 104.5 yds? Damn that seems 20 yards too high with Rivers, box is stacked. Under all the way. Good luck to all. |
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I can't see Buffalo going through the first 2 rounds without picking a WR. They are so weak at that position. They need to give Josh Allen some help.
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@carlosf19d I agree, and as far as ESPN experts go, she has a lot of reasonable takes. She clearly loves football and puts in some work to develop her opinions. There are far worse ESPN people out there that it's an absurd thing to distract from the analysis, which is why we're all here.
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Why would the Dolphins take a QB with a very weak QB class. They are not going to swallow a $56M cap hit, not in 2026 anyway.
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TEN +3 The Raiders are destined to bat leadoff in the '26 NFL Draft, meaning both the Giants and Titans will win one of their remaining games. NYG will beat LV next week, while TEN will beat KC straight up today. I know that TEN sucks, but KC is staggered right now. The O-line is in tatters, they have no running game, and the only viable passing targets for Minshew are (bust?) Xavier Worthy and the ghost of Travis Kelce. Key injuries are peppered along the KC defensive depth chart. TEN 20 KC 17 |
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Top Picks for Sunday
Judkins under 66.5 Yds - 2 OL out, Sanders no Pass threat + Bills best DB back, +10 spread/script. I just don't see it. Titans +7 teaser w many. KC favored on RD? 1-5 this year + Injuries + Minshew + Tank?. TEN 0-7 at home that is why +7 CIN -2.5 teaser w many. Burrows+Chase,Higgins,Brown vs MIA Ewers yikes. Archane can maybe blow this up but I am from Texas, he is scared under pressure. Yeah CIN D isn't great but underrated IMO - 3,4,3 Sacks last 3 weeks. Many Teasers with SD+6.5, DET -3, IND under 24.5 |
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@Billl2021 Yeah, thought I had LAR ML in the bag. Nevertheless, even though SEA might win division, any rematch - i still see LAR as a much stronger team. At least my LAR over and LAR teasers are in play. |
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The thing that people keep failing to talk about with the seahawks is rhat they probably have the brst special teams play in the league and they play all the way through those ST plays where a lot of other teams have players quit before the play is over. It has gotten them a lot points this season and won the game last night.
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@iEatCrayons Sick backdoor win but at least the +1.5 betters got paid. I don;t think Sam saw ghosts last night. He is turning into the real deal. |
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Wow, I would be so mad with EDC if he passed on Bain at that point in the Draft. Bain can play the outside and kick inside as a Raven. He has the power to set edge, gets ton of pressures, if he weren’t held so much he’d have another 5+ sacks. madubuike we’re still awaiting an update on if the neck injury is a career ender. |
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@Mr. Bitter That is old Sam. New Sam has a damn good record the last 2 years between Minnesota and Seattle |
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@iEatCrayons The line opened Rams -1.5. There was big money put on Seattle to move that line 3 points. That is why it is called gambling! |
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@Billl2021 Note: We can also pick and choose outliners stats, |
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@iEatCrayons I'm with you. Rams are the right side, even with Adams OUT. (For what it's worth, Adams only had 1 catch for one yard last time these teams met.) SEA cannot establish the run. Cross is OUT. Darnold falls apart under pressure, while Stafford is gunning for MVP. The only hope for SEA is a completely dominant defensive performance. |
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@iEatCrayons You are missing the 12th man! That place is going to get crazy if the Rams don't keep them quiet by controlling the game. Plus Sam threw four picks in the 1st game and only lost by 2. |
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I know this is more speculation than anything, but I think the city of New Orleans would riot if the Saints had an opportunity to draft Arch Manning and pass on him
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@Thethurm Thanks for the heads up. Its working now, at least for me. Let me know if you continue having issues. I think something was wrong with the units or favored team for the game that fixed itself as Walt's picks were reprocessed. |
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My Top Pick of the Week
LAR over 20.5 LAR ML Also, Teased LAR +3 wCHI +7, PHI ML, Chargers +4 combos LAR on a heater, Scored 41,45,28,34,21,42,34,35 last 8 weeks but yes no DA has some impact. Have doubts about SEA D played Rivers, Cousins, Max Bro, Ward. + No best OL Cross, No Run Game, Darnold+LAR pass rush + Suck at being pressured + Windy/Rain day. Sharps pushing this to SEA -2 today. I must be missing something - Maybe the delayed LAR flight has impact? Tell me what am I missing. |
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@acaizon Walt may be a lot of things, but Charlie's mock drafts are consistently among the most accurate you dumbfuck.
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Broncos undefeated at home, 11 game win streak, lol must like losing money. Love laughing at your mistakes picking against Denver . Shows your knowledge of nfl football is 5th grade level
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Oh by the way you are wrong about the Broncos they have everything to play for, and they have the better QB too. If the Jags win, they hold the tiebreaker over Denver if they are tied at the end of the season for the #1 seed you really need to get your facts straight. Why do you hate Bo he is a great QB, and he is proving every week as the season goes on?
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Walt, when it comes to football you should listen to your friend Andy, he is a very smart man.
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Walt, you seem like you are a very slow learner when it comes to the Broncos but that's ok some people never learn. You keep on hating and Denver keep on winning thanks Walt, I love it! Oh, by the way you should listen to your friend Andy he is a very smart man unlike you.
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"The most accurate mock draft site in the world" Gotta be joking. This is by far the worst most inaccurate mock draft in the world. Consistently ranking near last in predictions. No wonder no legit press will hire this guy even as a DEI hire. |
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Sellers is staying at SC. It's been reported last week. This used to be a cool place to gauge where players will be taken, but it seems like they've forgotten their roots and it's just a money grab. Site is way too busy & they're trying to sell too much. Too bad.
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Keep hating on the Broncos all the way to the way to the Super Bowl. Do you know that you are the only analyst that ranks the Broncos out of the top 10 you need to be more open minded when it comes to certain teams until then you will never be popular.
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How is it a look ahead spot for the Bears but not the Packers? If GB beats Chicago next week, they sweep them and own the tiebreaker although the tiebreaker probably doesn't come into play with the Packers having a tie.
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Fav plays: BAL/CIN U51.5 CHI -7.5 Proper Sanders implosion incoming. Thuney/Dalman/Jackson will do work against a CLE interior D struggling without Collins, and Graham hurting. Another big game from the CHI RBs. JAX -12 "We quit" game from the battered Jets, while Jax is getting into a lather. Blowout. BUF -1 Josh Allen - looking to make his MVP case - in a snow game. Revenge for BUF as Bosa and Rosseau take turns on Vederian Lowe. DET +6 Just a hunch that this is a FG game. DET's battered secondary is concerning, but we've seen their backups step up before. Goff indoors and Gibbs on a rug allow Lions to keep up. SEA -13.5 Betting that Indy's Philip Rivers Hail Mary is a disaster from the jump. Four TOs from Rivers sounds about right. |
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@Baird I'm going heavy on SEA. For me, it's all about fading Rivers. I'm not gonna wait to see how he fares when all logic points toward a disaster right from the jump. Gonna get out ahead of it. If I'm wrong on Rivers, then so be it. But I don't think I will be. SEA definitely has one eye toward the Rams, so I'd lay off if Riley Leonard was starting. At least he's functional and can do some things with his wheels. Rivers is just a sitting duck vs. that swarming SEA front seven. I'm with Walt - to expect anything but disaster for Rivers is fairy tale land. Not too worried about Taylor vs. an elite SEA run D that recently folded Jarran Reed back into the mix. Taylor has faded since Indy's problems at QB began anyway. For what it's worth, SEA is 10-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in games I deemed "flat" spots. MacDonald has them playing consistent ball. That said, I'm on the Rams -1 on TNF. LA has SEA's number. |
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@Mr. Bitter - I hope youre right. I went against myself and threw down bigger than I wanted on SEA -7 (6.5 teasers + ML parlays). I cant get past INDs O-line+Taylor and the big TNF game SEA has. I'm over thinking it. |
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Perhaps this racist loser would have as much success as "DEI hire" Mina Kimes, if he spent less of his free time replying to random people on twitter with rightwing brainrot nonsense from 4chan like a 14-year old virgin incel and more time perfecting his craft.
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My Jets will trade for Mac Jones or Kyler Murray or something. A move with a predictably bad outcome is what they do at QB.
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I agree that Mina Kimes isn't a great evaluator of the QB position but the fact you bring her up week after week anytime you evaluate the Raiders (even when Geno is injured and not starting lol) screams that she lives in your head rent free. Constantly bringing up the DEI thing also just makes it sounds like your more bothered that she's a Asian woman covering football than her actual analysis and takes. Quit yapping about other media ppl that get more attention than you and focus on football lil bro. |
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@Baird I feel confident that SEA will blow out IND. Rivers is starting, which is comically desperate. Coming out of a five-year retirement, he gets to face the best D in the NFL in a potential monsoon and without RT Braden Smith. There may be so many IND turnovers, SEA may cover even if not fully focused. I just have visions of that SEA D running fumbles and INTs into the EZ throughout the game. |
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Regarding the Rams, a few weeks ago I would have said that they were extremely likely to use one of their two 1st's on a tackle because of the Havenstein situation. However, Warren McClendon has stepped into his place and been dominant, especially as a run-blocker. And even his pass-blocking has been strong. PFF rates him as their 11th-best tackle this season. As such, my guess is that the Rams try to lock him up to an extension this offseason at a reasonable price. He's under contract next year for one more year on his rookie deal. Anyway, yeah, I feel like this frees the Rams up to simply go BPA with their early picks. I agree with the notion that they could pick a WR early because of Adams' age, even though they like Jordan Whittington internally; recall that they tried to trade up with the Panthers for McMillan and were turned down. I don't think that Tyson would get past them for this reason.
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@Mr. Bitter Point well taken. As a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan, I know how ineffective Tua performs in cold, snowy weather. I just switched my pick to Josh Allen and the Bills.
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@DoctorJ Counterpoint: 1 to 3 inches of snow and 21 mph winds in the forecast. Josh Allen is reliably beastly in snow games. |
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Been using this site for 20+ years. Sad to see this guy is losing his marbles. I always appreciated the minimalist look, but I can't get down with a maga clown. Luckily mock drafters are a dime a dozen.
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@42yardline I'm w you on the Jags game. They're one of my top plays on teasers this week, but I'm skeptical on Seattle. |
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In principle I think teams with good defenses tend to get underrated but I agree the Eagles at this point are an exception. Also, defenses will wear down. Its a symbiotic thing, a football team, from what I can tell.
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I like the Bucs. If ATL's coaching is that bad than at some point that team is going to quit on the season. Mayfield means quite the opposite for Tampa Bay. I'll caveat with TNF has proven to be an unpredictable event.
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One game that I believe you may have missed an important detail is Buffalo @ New England. The Patriots will be returning from their Bye Week so they will be well-rested, and Mike Vrabel had more time to develop a game plan. Josh Allen and the Bills just played a physically and mentally exhausting game against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I expect a letdown in this road game.
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Best tease of the year- for week 15 Jax and Sea. Not putting the house on it, but definitely the cottage.
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When Denver beat Green Bay this week, I hope you will put them in the top 5 of your power rankings but I know you won't because you are a hater.
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Week 14: I went HUGE on LAR
2-game teasers... LAR -2.5 + TB -2.5 (5U to win 4U) + Jags +7.5 (5U) + Cin +11.5 (5U) + Bal - (5U) LAR -2.5 + Hou +9.5 3.75U to win 3U + Sea -1.0 2.5U to win 2U + Den -1.5 2.5U to win 2U *I mixed the above for 6-game teasers & added in week 15... Ten @ SF: SF -6.5 GB @ Den: Den +7.5 BUF @ NE: BUF +7.5 I hit ML parlays on the heavy favs and mixed in... Chase Brown (CIN) 32+ Rush Yards Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) 20+ Rush Yards Blake Corum (LAR) 14+ Rush Yards Tyler Warren (IND) 43+ Rec Yards De'Von Achane (MIA) 21+ Rec Yards GL all |
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Last year you had Shadeau Sanders at #3 and I laughed your ass outta the park. 2026 is a new year, let's hope you get it right this time.
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@Billl2021 Maybe lol. But it'll be difficult for Mahomes without 3/5 of his O-line there to keep Hunter and Anderson off his ass. |
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Talk about Cowboy centric. In the description of the Cowboys vs. Lions game 1.5 sentences, out of 3 paragraphs were about Detroit. A little biased reporting?
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For CHI/GB, there should be mention of Devonte Wyatt being OUT. Huge blow to the GB D-line.
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Completely insane that you refuse to drop the Chiefs out of "group A". The Chiefs shouldn't be in anyone's top 10, your bizarre bias towards them makes no sense at this point. Maybe you're taking lessons from Mina Kimes!
The Patriots and Packers would both easily beat KC at this point, yet they're both ranked lower for some reason. I personally have KC ranked 17th, which may still be too high! |
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Wow you dropped them 1 spot you really are a hater they should be in the top 5 minimum. Denver is for real and you need to give them more love. Maybe when Denver wins the Super Bowl this year you will give them some love. Even Nick Wright has been giving them some love and Bo is the real deal he is a top 10 QB. Why so much hate for the Broncos?
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I don't think we can assume that the Chiefs have an on switch this season. There's been no evidence of it and we're in the stretch run. It's hard to justify ranking KC ahead of NE, even with the Will Campbell injury. Will you bump the Texans ahead of the Chiefs after HOU beats KC?
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i understand most people not a fan of G5 but the fact that Byrum Brown is not on this list is a travesty. One of the best QBs in college and i would argue top 10. He is what this site thinks LaNorris Sellers is.. Runs like a Deer 6'4 240 lbs can throw but needs some work on his throwing motion/mechanics. Some one will take a chance on him in the mid rounds 2-4 i believe.
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Walter must be a DEI hire because he still doesn't realize that Washington's football team is called Commanders.
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So, when Philadelphia gets completely dominated, it's because they put "no effort"? Walter you're a dumb DEI hire
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@Mr. Bitter
Well, read that one wrong. I was having a couple good weeks but back to reality. NFL games be hard to predict.