Site Comments
12 Comments (last 3 days):
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Can World play RT? Patrick Paul is Miami's starting LT and the only o-lineman that is playing well for us.
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Walt: Expect the Cowboys to continue their tour of looking like a Super Bowl Bound Contender against mediocre teams on Sunday. The real test regarding the Cowboys offensive line- will come against the Commanders with former Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn returning. Expect the Cowboys to dominate the Panthers this Sunday
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@Mr. Bitter Clevelands coaches cost them that game. Way to conservative when they had the lead |
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That Packers -14.5 makes no sense. Should the Packers be 5 points higher that what the Lions spread was vs the Bengals?
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looking at this I guess the Browns' O-line will suck and be hurt again next year.
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Browns need O-linemen, like Mauigoa. Their O-line is either old (Bitonio, Teller) or beaten to an injured pulp (everyone else) They do not need a first round WR. Between all their 2 TE formations and receiving RBs, and a borderline first round WR talent they just got for free (Bond) |
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Please stop projecting the Niners to draft another CB in the 1st or second round. They have their starters set for the next few years because the paid Lenoir, drafted Green in the 2nd round in 2024 and Stout in the 3rd round in 2025. If you want to project them drafting a safety, fine, but please stop with CBs. For a 2nd round, they will go with either a TE (eventual replacement for Kittle), interior OL or a RB(eventual replacement for McCaffrey) or Safety. They could even go DE Depending if they think Bosa will return and be reliable.
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Typical horrible take on the Bucs and Baker Mayfield. He is the MVP leader right now, hands down. Bucs also are better then the Chargers and Rams easily. If the Bucs were 5-0, you would have them at 9 probably. You hate the Bucs...always have and your bias shows all the time.
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The Texans are still an awful team, regardless of what happened against Baltimore. People are suddenly pretending that Baltimore hasn’t been slated wirh injuries all over just to try and make it sound as if Houston is back. I’m wagering that Seattle and San Francisco will blow out the Texans.
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Mina Kimes DEI hirecomment is unfair. Do not get caught up in the moment this fervor will pass and a lot of people will look foolish. |
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@Baird If the Ravens were playing a team with a functional passing game, I wouldn't touch them given all the injuries in the secondary. But HOU hasn't been able to throw the ball for a while. I still believe the Ravens are an elite team that will round into form as they get healthier, so I wanna get out ahead of it. BAL could really get into a lather Weeks 8 through 14 (lotta cupcakes) and I'm gonna bet a small wager that tomorrow's game will be an early springboard into that. Kinda my contrarian pick of the week. |
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@Baird Kyle Shanahan has to be frontrunner for NFL Coach of the Year, but the Rams are better than the 'Niners and should have won that game. |
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@Baird MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen. One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial. |
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@Bitter - I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it Thats the kind of thing I need to hear cause I dont watch college. Flores > Gabriel should be an easy decision, but Wentz doesnt instill confidence vs Cle's D. I got 0.5U on a 6-game w/ Min+2.5 just cause Walt sees something - GL |
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@Mr. Bitter - "why are you out on HOU/BAL?" Henry has owned the Texans so there's that angle, but Lamar, Roquan, Awuzie, Madubiuke & Humphrey out w banged up Stanley, Oweh is too hard to cap. Yes, this is do or die for Bal, they are at home and have owned Hou in the past, but I cant calculate all the variables. |
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@Mr. Bitter That game was hard to watch. The 1st quarter QB sneak while Rams d-line talks about what they are doing after the game & quick passing TD to Tonges wide open in red zone. Fumble, drop, fumble, missed extra point, missed FG - jeez I hate to lose money, but gladly stand by my 5.75U + 5.75U Rams bets. They should have covered -2.5 |
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Looking like a QB won’t go #1. They all have question marks and some may stay in college to continue development and collect their NIL money.
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@Baird Out of curiosity, why are you out on HOU/BAL? I've been sniffing around BAL as the media is currently driving nails into their coffin. I have a hunch that - even with the horrifying injury list - Harbaugh will rally the remaining troops, lean on Derrick Henry (HOU susceptible vs. the run) and find a way to cover/maybe win. My biggest concern with BAL is the season-ending injury to Madubuike, but if the rest of the team gets healthy and DeCosta swings a trade for a high-quality DT (Jeffery Simmons?), I still like BAL in the AFC North. |
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@Baird I appreciate the fine tooth comb treatment for CLE/MIN. Non-bet for me, as I don't trust Wentz, yet wonder how long the CLE defense will be happy with doing the heavy lifting while the offense stagnates around a revolving door of bad QBs. (As a pretty dedicated draftnik, I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it.) We've seen even the best of defenses eventually tap out in such situations. I wouldn't count on the Cam Robinson angle. Washed journeyman who should only be shoring up practice squads. |
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"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing" McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt. |
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I did well last week on PHI ML, NE & Den teasers plus the obvious Sea, Ind +9.5, Jags 9.5, Hou -1 & Chi/LVR over. I lost w Bal failing to show up (12.75 ML loss) and the GB tie (I had -0.5). I lost 4U on GB, but they closed teasers & opportunity cost was 27U- ouch! It happens. |
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Walt I was right in regards to the Cowboys- Packers game. The hype of the game actually helped the Cowboys play over their heads- especially Dak Prescott. The Cowboys may over look the next 2 games against the Jets and the Panthers; which both could be trap games for the Cowboys. Imho I think the Jets will cover the spread- but the Cowboys will win the game
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Walt, 2 things...
1. CLE vs MIN - I'd be careful assuming the body clock is the reason Min wins. I appreciate you dialing it back with a 2-game sample, but I specifically remember the Buf/Jags game because I made money both weeks. Buf played a huge home game vs div rival Mia and crushed them. That was when Mia was good and Buf put 100% into showing up at home. Conversely, they took some hits and I recall a big loss with DaQuan Jones being out, a starting LB getting ko'd and CB issues. I bet Jacksonville as a fade of the Buf letdown & injuries - not body clock. I DONT think the body clock applies this week; however, Flores vs rookie QB looks like money AND I checked out the stadium to see if its grass or turf... "underlying synthetic turf field for NFL games" - how is this not a Min home game? Def favors them unless the refs are biased towards Cle. I dont watch college so I have no clue what Gabriel brings, but Bucky Brooks said... "quick release, can beat you w arm or legs but doesnt have a strong arm". Ok, dink and dunk small ball and let D do the heavy lifting. Either way - I'll join in NOT watching, but will add a small tease for whatever you're seeing. With that said, I'm scared of Judkins, 007 WR & 2 TE sets. Besides, Cam Robinson is shoring up LT and Wentz just lost to the mediocre Steelers. 2. "On the plus side, they’re accumulating some major air mile points so maybe they’ll get a free vacation" - thanks for the laugh. Very well written. |
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It might be time to start projecting a QB to the panthers. Things appear to be unraveling in Carolina .
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Glad to see you finally see the light with the Lions! Also Packers "amazing defense" sure looked great against the inept Cowboys - it's almost like Week 1 takes truly don't matter.
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@j_oliver_23 I think the bigger deal with the Lions is Dan Campbell/Brad Holmes proving thenselves as a top HC/GM combo. Replacing guards and coordinators is relatively easy with a strong HC/Front Office in place
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Dear Walter, I've been a loyal paying follower for many years. What attracted me to your services was your ability to pick UNDERDOGS. You have strayed from that practice for the most part over the years and are LOSING your ASS! ANYONE can pick CHALK. My advice is to dig in like you used to and pick some DAWGS........God bless and good luck, Edge |
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@ Walt It amazes me that you thought the team that just got beat by the browns, was going to smoke the Cowboys! |
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LOVE DET -10 To control Myles Garrett, Sewell and Decker is about the best OT duo you could ask for, and even the best of defenses eventually tap out when there's no support from the offense. CLE's win vs. GB will be a blip on the radar of another lost season that will result in the (unfair) firing of Stefanski. For DET, Morton's offense is in a lather, while the defense should be able to contain Judkins. I just don't see an "on switch" for the CLE attack in this spot. Aidan Hutchinson vs. a CLE 3rd-string RT called "KT Leveston" and LT Cornelius Lucas reeks of a game-wrecking situation. I anticipate double-digit DET wins vs. CLE and Week 5 vs. CIN. MIN -2.5 Vibes are good in MIN. Prepare for louder "should Wentz remain the starter" chatter following this one. This is what Kevin O'Connell does, and the Steelers have been far more lucky than good this season. I'm concerned that D.K. Metcalf may be able to light up MIN's suspect secondary, but given that Aaron Rodgers was 30th in QBR and 33rd in YPA vs. the blitz in '24, I doubt the Flores defense will allow the immobile Rodgers the time to locate Metcalf. |
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CAR had their game, bet against.
*I want to love NE, but they have div rival BUF next. I still think they show up at home and CAR brings less. Dont get me wrong 5.5 spread is scary for a slouch offense, but I tease so... This is that sneaky game we're looking for. Ok, in Vrabel I trust. Gonzalez should be back vs McMillan. When I first saw the line I was confused, now I understand. NE also brings the #2 run D w 2.8 YPC. Wk1 - Jeanty 19-38-2.0 Wk2 - Achane 11-30-2.7 Wk3 - Warren 18-47-2.6 I just found my play this week aside from Den. GL all |
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The Cowboys will shock the world by either covering the spread or upsetting the cheese heads on Sunday Night Football. Be prepared to watch jerruh have a big smile on his face when the cameras scan the owner's box
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Walter! What is the deal with all of the Lions sarcasm? I still think, after the Baltimore win, this season will be a struggle and that there is still a good chance they miss the playoffs. But are you realiy hearing from the national media and from dopes on Twitter that the Lions are unstoppable and the best team in the league? I heard a LOT more people say this team was done and that Campbell was a goon who couldn’t get it done without his elite coordinators after the GB loss. |
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Watch out for Arkansas' Taylen Green. Cam Newton-type upside and could emerge as QB1.
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@Billl2021 To be fair, BAL was without an elite DT (Madubuike) and Van Noy. Replay the game with those two healthy and I doubt DET is ripping off all those 10 yard + runs. But yeah, DET came to play and probably would have won regardless, especially now that Derrick Henry is Mr. Butterfingers. |
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The refs were blatantly on the side of Bal in that game as well (Branch chop block, missed fg?, hit to head of Goff, etc) but it's nice to see that Detroit has gotten good enough to overcome good teams + the refs unlike the past
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@Walter Just imagine when they get everybody back. Scary You don't need great coordinators when you have great talent! |
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@RDGS Yeah they're going 15-2 again even though they lost half their offensive line and both coordinators, and a third of their defense isn't even back from injury yet
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I really hope you recant all your bullshit about the Lions. Please talk about the guards and our coordinators some more…
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Stop calling us the Redskins. You're not even a fan of this team what gives you the right to call us that, or to even be mad about the name change? At this point, our fanbase has embraced the new name because that name means something new now: Jayden Daniels. He was and will never be a Redskin. Get your head out of your ass and take down your confederate flag
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Hey DEI hire, the correct name for Washington is "Commander." Stupid obese white limp dick grampas are useless at everything.
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Walter, the crusty confederate homosexual, is too stupid or still stuck in the 19th century to realize that Washington's team name is "Commanders". Dumb DEI hire.
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Never understood this - since most gamblers lose money betting football, how about gamblers pick their winners and then bet the opposite of what they really think? Comments anyone? |
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WEEK 3 Early Games ATS: ATL, MIN, GB, HOU, IND, LAR, LV, TB, NE Even the best of defenses eventually tap out when they're getting no support from their offense. GB 27, CLE 14 GLTA |
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@Jasonwbantle Wentz and Mason are probably upgrades from McCarthy and Aaron Jones. Darrisaw may play. Meanwhile, CIN will likely be without Shemar Stewart, Cam Taylor-Britt and D.J. Turner. |
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The Chargers feel different this season. Tougher. Meanwhile, Bo Nix has sophomore slump written all over him. The Chargers will win SU and ATS despite the injuries. Jim Harbaugh COTY?
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Bengals aren’t bad. Their defense sucks but blocking is underrated. Not great but not bad. And they have the best wr group in football along with a top ten rb. Also Texans and Bears opened as favorites. |
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“Cincinnati defense had D.J. Reader, Sam Hubbbard, and Chidobe Awuzie. “
Awuzie and Reader were hurt and they let him walk. Hubbard was a liability on defense. |
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walt thanks for the analysis...question: where do you get your "sharp" action and how they are betting?
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Sellers has been a disappointment this season, and now he's QUESTIONABLE for a showcase game at Mizzu. Beginning to wonder if someone like Dante Moore, Fernando Mendoza or Sawyer Robertson will emerge as QB2/3 instead of Sellers.
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Kevin O'Connell is 5-0 with a new starting quarterback in their first game with the Vikings (Cousins, Dobbs, Mullens, Darnold, and McCarthy)
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Kevin O'Connell is 5-0 with a new starting quarterback in their first game with the Vikings (Cousins, Dobbs, Mullens, Darnold, and McCarthy)
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I agree with the selection of Mateer as the surprise number one draft pick. He reminds me of a young Baker Mayfield who also transfer to Oklahoma and eventually won the Heisman. Maybe Mateer will follow in Mayfield's footsteps and be drafted by the Saints and be tutored by Head Coach Moore of the Saints
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The Falcons are underrated. Their biggest weaknesses from last season (pass rush, secondary) look much improved. Even Kyle Pitts is playing like he gives a crap. As long as Penix is an efficient point guard, there is ample explosiveness on offense for ATL to hang tough with anyone.
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K, so Denver is looking like a Group C team, and Indy outplayed them to the tune of 149 yards more offense (or 1.1 more yards per paly). Good observations. Now, explain again why you ranked the victorious Colts 4 ositions lower than the Broncos. Show some backbone!
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Jags got screwed on three "judgement" calls by the refs Sunday. Any one of the three would have changed the outcome of the game. I know that teams need to win nonetheless, but after THREE game-changing bad calls?
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"The Lions lost to the Packers by two touchdowns, but the gap between the two teams was much wider than that. They went on to crush the Bears, but Chicago is a terrible team that shot itself in the foot repeatedly." So Chicago shot themselves in the foot multiple times yet allowed a franchise record in YPA and Goff to throw for 5 TDs not to mention exceptional blocking by the OLine that only allowed 2 pressures and opened holes in the running game. Detroit even though playing not great against GB still won the TOP by a lot which you mention all the time as a reason why another team should have won yet you just choose to ignore that while not giving the same - "shot itself in the foot argument". Honestly it's clear you're hellbent on the Lions being overrated this year when there is no evidence to support that especially this early in the year. |
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Kelce might have been thinking of china patterns for the wedding on that interception.
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@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I found it unusual that the Titans will be wearing the darker jerseys and the Rams the white ones this week. Granted the Titan jerseys are more of a light blue than a solid deep color but a team serious about winning should take advantage of the least little things, especially with a gametime temp forecast of 88. I took the Jags [ white jerseys also ] against the Bengals. The Saints against the Niners. Both games offer the dogs 3 1/2 points and I like another 3 1/2 point dog on Monday night - the Raiders. I seem to remember some bad blood between Harbaugh & Carroll from their college days. I don't think the Raiders are as bad as everyone thinks and Geno Smith is a decent enough QB to keep them competitive in most games. Good luck everyone.
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@Baird Love those clean angles in your LV/WAS look ahead. I worry about WAS, too. Daniels is the real deal, but WAS is due some serious luck regression this year. (Which we may already be seeing with the injuries.) Also: While I get the idea of surrounding Daniels with a veteran cast during his rookie contract window, WAS's roster feels too old. |
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ARI -6.5 I gave Bryce Young one week, and Walt is right - Bryce Young sucks. He has limitations that can't be overcome at the NFL level, and - like last season - I'm betting his poor performance will snowball. I expect the ARI D to get some TOs and Conner/Benson to take turns gashing the CAR D. I kinda like the Cardinals this year. Yeah, they're probably looking at a 2-0 start vs. two of the worst teams in the league, but ARI's roster is talented and they could easily be 6-1 going into their BYE. |
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NE +2.5 There's a better chance that Mike McDaniel will be DET's OC in '26 than MIA's HC, and everyone knows it. MIA is a mentally and physically soft team that may have already tapped out. For me, MIA is an AUTO FADE until I see reason for them not to be. I have my question's about Drake Maye and worry about NE's secondary, but as long as the Pats employ TreVeyon Henderson as RB1 - I'm guessing they will - they should win SU. NYG +6 If Russell Wilson's Week One performance rolls over to Week 2 - which it easily could behind that Andrew Thomasless O-line and "force-feed Malik Nabers" scheme - then the Dart Era might arrive before halftime. I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but preseason Dart looked like an immediate upgrade from Wilson, and could easily spark the Giants to (at least) a backdoor cover. I'm assuming a lot here, but no risk it, no biscuit. Note: I don't trust Guyton and Steele vs. Carter and Burns. |
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@Baird Yeah, Carter's DROY chances look promising. The Dart era could begin as soon as this Sunday for the Giants, which may increase the likelihood that Thibodeaux gets traded, meaning even more snaps/opportunity for Carter. I still think Malaki Starks is in a great position to rack up some big plays and narrow the lead, and I've got my eye on CIN LB Demetrius Knight Jr., who was flying around everywhere and super-productive Week One. Could be a Shaquille Leonard-type situation where Knight just puts up so many numbers that he forces the voters' hands. |
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@Baird Verse is such a beast. With J.C. Latham OUT, Byron Young should get in on the sack fun too. TEN is going to ruin Cam Ward. Dotson is playing and Sweat is OUT for TEN. Should be a workmanlike win for the Rams unless they're looking ahead to PHI Week 3. Rams are well-coached, so I doubt that happens. |
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@Mr. Bitter
Limmer 27 pass (ouch!), but 89 run block grade As an Anaheim Rams fan, I'm obligated to to rebut w Verse (90) vs Moore Jr (26 pass block). 2, 3 or 4 sacks for Verse? |
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@j_oliver_23 You make good points and I agree with you. Any games you like this week?
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Week 1 was great with 15U Den ML, 4U win on Vegas teasers, 11 on teasers w local guy and 0.5 McLaurin under. 30.5U win is much better than my 20U loss to start last season. NYG +12.5 & KC +3 failed to cover. |
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TEN doesn't have much of an edge rush, but they get interior pressure. The Rams could be without both starting guards and be forced to rely on Beaux Limmer and Justin Dedich to keep Jeffery Simmons off of Stafford. Could have something to do with the TEN love right now.
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Browns need LT and QB with their first round picks. I'd consider getting Caleb Downs with one of the picks also, if he's available.
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@Mr. Bitter Its on hiatus. Things keep getting tighter. Perhaps later this season we'll pick it back up. |
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@j_oliver_23 The Athletic had a newsletter by Chrish Branch that declared the Bills winner of the Super Bowl and Daniel Jones league MVP. So it happens |
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Here are some stats to combat your opinion on "Massive regression" for the Detroit Lions due to losing their coordinators. It's a rare occurrence happening to 4 other teams in the past 20+ years + Last record prior to losing coordinators Phi - 2022 - 14-3 SB Loss Cin - 2013 11-5 WC Loss NE - 2004 - 14-2 SB win SF - 1994 - 13-3 SB Win The next year following the loss of their coordinators they went Phi - 11-5 WC Loss Cin - 10-5-1 WC Loss NE - 10-6 (won division) DR Loss SF - 11-5 (won division) DR Loss So history actually does NOT show that a "massive regression" is what's coming for the Lions who were 15-2 last season rather a slight regression of a game or 2 which was obviously to be expected with their 15-2 record and a much harder SOS. Hopefully facts help with your assessment, along with factoring in that there are rookies playing in the middle of the line, which naturally require an adjustment period rather than they they are overrated and suck. |
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"Week 2 is often known as Overreaction Week because people form wild opinions based on what transpired in one week of football." Then you proceed to overreact to the Lions Week 1. I guess Detroit better fire their 2 new coordinators because of "Massive Regression". How about we wait until Week 8 and 9 and see where the team is at before you validate your opinion? |
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Totally disagree with Ravens being #1. NFl Football is a 60 minute game. Winners don't dominate for 55 minutes only to be able to slack off the last 5 if this game really was played multiple times and the Tavens still snoozed at the end. They would still lose. No bonus points if cant play the whole 60
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