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@Nagurski : I would tend to agree with you about not trying to Handicap the referees. It's not like the NBA where there are only 3 on the floor and serious fans know their tendencies as well as their names. I believe there are 8 [ or more ] officials for NFL playoff games and the Head Referee seldom calls the penalties with the exception of roughing the passer. The other officials pretty much labor in obscurity - does one referee [ back judge for example ] tend to call more pass interference or 'tend to let the boys play' ? After each quarter these referees switch with the field position meaning they are in each team's backfield for half the game. 

 I don't know if any teams have a coach that monitors all NFL referees - grading them on the number of calls and frequency the penalties are called. In baseball, professional handicappers keep grades and charts on umpires when they work home plate - lists are accumulated of umpires that call more/less strikes or balls. If at the end of the year one umpire has a 13-3 record of games going over the total and also called less strikes than balls it would be easy to classify the umpire as an over umpire. I believe most teams keep charts on all the umpires so no team really has a significant advantage. Whether the individual teams do an effective job of communicating this information to the players is debatable when you look at the batting statistics for most players. Also, all players when batting react to the pitch location according to their individual strike zone. They don't change their batting style each game because of a scouting report. The coach's can provide charts to the batters showing zones or locations that the umpire calls a higher percentage of strikes [ low and outside for example ] but most batters seldom adjust to this. However, the top Managers can make significant adjustments by knowing an umpire's tendency to call more balls - he can give more take signals, or if he knows the umpire calls more balls, he can call less steals and make the pitchers throw more pitches and wear out the other team's bullpens.

 Instead of trying to handicap the referees in the playoffs, I would pay more attention to the coach's. Is there a reason that Sean Payton's teams always seem to over achieve or that Matt Eberflus's teams don't know how to win close games ? I think we all know the answer. In the final 2 matchups Reid is the obvious best Head Coach but how would you rate the other 3 ? Quinn took an overachieving team to the Super Bowl [ Atlanta ] but blew the big lead and game against Brady and never seem to recover from that fiasco. Is this his year of vindication ? Sirianni can be strange but has an excellent record and took one team to the Super Bowl and lost a lead late to the Chiefs although he received little criticism for his team losing ? Sean McDermott has a career 86-45 overall record but always seems to come up short ? If history repeats itself, it would suggest that the Chiefs have the best chance to advance to and win the Super Bowl, but I don't think the gap between these head coaches is that huge this year and I wouldn't count on it for handicapping purposes. If you think one coach is significantly better, that is an angle to consider. Good luck