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@Baird 

I'm going heavy on SEA. For me, it's all about fading Rivers. I'm not gonna wait to see how he fares when all logic points toward a disaster right from the jump. Gonna get out ahead of it. If I'm wrong on Rivers, then so be it. But I don't think I will be.

SEA definitely has one eye toward the Rams, so I'd lay off if Riley Leonard was starting. At least he's functional and can do some things with his wheels. Rivers is just a sitting duck vs. that swarming SEA front seven. I'm with Walt - to expect anything but disaster for Rivers is fairy tale land. 

Not too worried about Taylor vs. an elite SEA run D that recently folded Jarran Reed back into the mix. Taylor has faded since Indy's problems at QB began anyway.

For what it's worth, SEA is 10-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in games I deemed "flat" spots. MacDonald has them playing consistent ball. That said, I'm on the Rams -1 on TNF. LA has SEA's number.  

@Mr. Bitter - I hope youre right. I went against myself and threw down bigger than I wanted on SEA -7 (6.5 teasers + ML parlays).

I cant get past INDs O-line+Taylor and the big TNF game SEA has. I'm over thinking it.

@42yardline 

I'm w you on the Jags game. They're one of my top plays on teasers this week, but I'm skeptical on Seattle.

Dont get me wrong, I'm going to hit a few 6.5 teasers w SEA, Jags, PIT, NYG, etc... All the games that the extra 1/2 point make sense. I dont know if its the flooding in Seattle or the LARs game on TNF for the div lead but I'm sure we're not going to see a 100% effort from the Seahawks.

If they go up by 2 scores late in the 4th do they pull players for the real game on Thurs?

They're playing a non-conference opponent with no QB - how jacked are they going to be? Buckner may be back, but I cant get past the fact that Ward just went on IR and Sauce prob wont play. JSN should shine... BUT in the rain?

I'm going to tread lightly on SEA (6.5 teasers and ML parlays) - GL

@42yardline 

Giants fans are spoiled rotten compared to us Jets fans. Our only comfort is watching SB III on Youtube.

I'm interested to see how the Giants play for Kafka. I've always liked him as an assistant. Maybe NY has stumbled upon a decent HC.

@42yardline 

The old Costanza method.

@42yardline 

For the Jets, my approach to the draft would be completely different than how Mougey and Glenn will approach it because they appear to be committed to Justin Fields at QB. Fields greatly limits what you can do on offense and isn't going to lead us to the playoffs. So the answer to your question is Shedeur Sanders.

@The Champ 

For sure. Watts especially. Geno Stone is a cap casualty waiting to happen. Watts is going to be coveted by FS-needy teams looking to win now. After Malaki Starks, Watts is the only FS prospect ready to start.

@Mr. Bitter

Halleluia if Will Johnson falls to the Bills. That would be a big and welcome draft day surprise.

Speaking of Draft Day - that movie was on TV the other night. I never get sick of seeing that (especially when it is on a week or two before the real draft.

@Mr. Bitter

I've always wanted the Bills to take DT Grant, but they would have to move up to get him. Tyleik Williams would be my next choice - great run stuffer (which Buffalo needs badly) and he can put pass rush pressure up the middle to get into Mahomes and other quarterbacks faces.

The Bills do need to get another starting CB relatively early. Christian Benford was a great find in the 6th round a few years ago but the other starting CB spot is a concern. Even if they were to resign Rasul Douglas again he would only be a stop-gap. He did not have a good season last year, and he is not getting any younger. There should still be some good CBs available near the end of round 2. You can't expect to catch lightning in a bottle again if you wait until late in the draft.

@42yardline 

I think the Bills will go D-line with their first pick. BUF needs to get over that KC hump. They saw what the Eagles did to the KC offense. AFC contenders are going to copy that blueprint.

The Bills have got to get a young, Jordan Davis-type run-stopper and an EDGE that can contribute immediately as high-quality insurance for Bosa. (Preferably a bendy EDGE screamer to complement the power games of Rousseau, Bosa and Hoecht)

Kenneth Grant is exactly what they need. With two 2nd-rounders, maybe BUF trades up if Grant starts slipping?

Tyliek Williams could be this draft's consolation prize for run-stopper needy teams that miss out on Kenneth Grant. He wouldn't surprise me at 1.30.

Green, Donovan Ezeiruaku and James Pearce are all candidates to slip to BUF and would have to be considered.

I have a hunch the Bills will come out of the 2nd RD with Xavier Watts. He's the ball-hawking FS BUF needs and he's pro-ready.

@Mr. Bitter 

Despite the arms he did a good job against Marvin Harrison (not too shabby). If my Bills don't pick DT / DE  in the first round, I would be happy with Morrison there. 

@42yardline 

the bills seem to be very thin at wide receiver, however, keon coleman was a great pick, but they need more.

@42yardline 

I just feel if anything the Chiefs should have to pay a tax of losing a player like Hill every season they have Mahomes.  Its just not fair.

@42yardline 

1 KC

2 BAL

3 HOU

4 BUF

5 CIN

Then it's the Jets in a scrum with JAX, IND, MIA, CLE, PIT, LAC and maybe LV for the last two playoff spots...and that's IF Rodgers, Hall, M. Williams and T. Smith stay healthy. Long odds.

My biggest fear is that the Jets are a year too late with the all-in approach. It should have began the minute they signed Rodgers and decided to put all of their eggs in that basket. Now Rodgers is coming off a major injury and approaching 41, an age when even the greatest of the all-time great QBs (save for Brady) saw their performance fall off a cliff.

At least there's YouTube, where I can find comfort in Al Toon highlight videos and watching Matt Snell run wild over the Colts for the hundredth time in SBIII.

@Mr. Bitter 

The 3 way trade certainly makes a lot of sense. However, I wouldn't count out Sean Payton making some noise on that front. He is desperate to get "his guy" to get rid of the bad taste in his mouth that Russ Wilson left.

If Payton offers the moon to some team, obviously they would have to look at it.

@42yardline 

Six QBs could easily go in the 1st RD. After the top six guys, there's a huge fall off. Spencer Rattler is the only prospect after the top six with a chance of going before the 5th RD, IMO.

I don't think QB-needy teams are ever too concerned about what might be available in future drafts. It drives me nuts when I see mocks that have a QB-needy team passing on QB to "wait for Sanders or Ewers". First of all, if Sanders and Ewers are that good, there's no guarantee teams at the top of the '25 draft won't just want them for themselves. Secondly, for all we know the whole Colorado/Prime Time thing could implode next season and Sanders transfers again, and Ewers could continue to struggle with inconsistency and lose his job to Arch Manning. There's just so much unknown involved. It wasn't that long ago that mock drafts were suggesting QB-needy teams should "wait until next year for Spencer Rattler". NFL teams don't operate like that.

QBs at 1-2-3-4 could happen. I buy what Monti Ossenfort is selling when he says he's open for business at 1.04, but at the same time I'm still convinced ARI wants MHJ.

More than anything, ARI is about affording Kyler Murray every opportunity for success. I think an All Pro WR is what they want, not more late-1st/Day 2 picks (of which they already have plenty). Even with all that cap space, the Cardinals have done basically nothing to address their WR depth chart. Teams almost always sign a reasonable hedge or two at need positions to allow for more draft day flexibility. The Cardinals have done nothing. This suggests two things:

1) ARI knows QBs are going 1-2-3.

2) They want MHJ at 1.04 and only a ridiculous king's ransom will get them to trade any lower than 1.05.

The Champ's proposed three-way deal could be exactly what we see happen.

@42yardline I've had the QB's going 1-2-3-4 as soon as I heard Daniel Jeremiah saying on a podcast (the day of the trade where Minnesota moved up to get #23, I believe) that this would be the case.  His theory was, simply, that you don't make that move unless you have a promise from a team in the top 4 that they would take a deal where you procured them a second 1st Round pick.  And if the promise came from the Chargers or Giants, let's say, you have no way of knowing that Arizona couldn't trade out of 4 and foil your plan, if you're Minnesota.  So yes, I believe that at the very least, Arizona has assured them that they would accept 11 and 23 for 4.  

And there's another theory I've seen floated, one that I borrowed on my own mock, which is this:  what if Minnesota, Arizona, and the Chargers have essentially agreed to a 3-way trade?  One where Minnesota comes up to 4 to take McCarthy, Arizona moves to 5 to still get Harrison Jr., and the Chargers get 5 and 35 out of it?  We've seen reports that Arizona loves MHJ, and that the Chargers are interested in moving down if it gets the right offer.  Well, couldn't this be something where all 3 teams get what they want?  Minnesota procured #23 and uses it to get McCarthy.  Arizona still gets MHJ and actually moves up from #35 to #23 in the exchange.  And the Chargers come out well ahead on the trade value chart if they turn 5 into 11 and 35.  

I could see 6 QB's in the 1st, I agree with you, and I think it's a virtual certainty that we will see 5.  

@42yardline 

Have a Genesee Cream Ale for me.

@42yardline

And I hope you don't think I'm disparaging Buffalo in any way. The Bills are a top-notch organization with the best fan base. I was also born in Rochester and am Rust Belt through and through.

@42yardline 

I think the Bills may already be a year late with Diggs.

If you had to guess, how rich do you think trade compensation for Diggs would be?

@The Champ 

It's possible. I'm not reading too much into the brief McDaniel/Worthy exchange. Effusive and humorous is pretty much McDaniel's default setting.

I'm kinda at the other end with what MIA could be targeting on offense. They have plenty of speed. A big, physical WR for Tua to lean on in short yardage/red zone situations is what they need. I think they're doing their due diligence on speedsters like Worthy and Roman Wilson as options at 2.55 because they know keeping both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle won't be financially tenable if/when they pay Tua.

@The Champ 

Worthy definitely could go 1st round. I wouldn't be shocked if he was WR4 and drafted top-20. I'm just arguing his fit for BUF in particular, which may need more of a sure thing at WR - especially if Diggs is traded. I think I'm just more concerned about the weight than you guys are. If you run around on an NFL field at less than 170 lbs you're going to get hurt. If you look at the history of slim reaper WR prospects...Paul Richardson, Terrence Edwards, Snoop Minnis, Dede Westbrook, Tavon Austin, etc, etc...the track record is miserable. DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell are the outliers. I like DeVonta, but he's more deluxe WR2 than WR1 and wasn't worth that 1.10 investment, IMO. Dell is already having problems with injuries.

There are also some concerning underlying analytics with Worthy:

Right off the bat, he has a career catch rate <60%. Not good.

His career QBR when targeted - a solid predictive metric for NFL success - would be the lowest of WRs drafted in the last five seasons.

Worthy - in theory - is that lid-lifting deep threat at the NFL level, but he was really never even that at Texas. Only 23% of Worthy's 1014 REC yards last season were deep yards, while nearly 40% of those yards came on screens.

If I'm being purely predictive, I'm guessing late 1st/early 2nd for Worthy. He just scares me and I personally believe he's becoming an overrated prospect. He's my anti-Chop Robinson lol.

@42yardline 

Thanks, and likewise. You could easily be right. No risk it, no biscuit. Worthy is just so skinny. It's a concern. Especially out there in the cold AFC East with those 6-1/205ish freakish press corners like Sauce, Ramsey, Gonzalez, Fuller...I dunno. Those guys are great athletes in their own right and got Worthy by 35-40 pounds.  Just feels like they would jam Worthy up all day and never give him a bite to eat, especially early in his career. Seems like more of a 2nd round risk/reward investment, but I could be totally wrong.

So what do you think is going to happen with Diggs? It's beginning to feel like an irreconcilable differences-type situation in BUF and he'll be with the Giants, Steelers or Ravens or something before long.

@42yardline 

I agree that BUF needs a WR - especially one that would allow Allen to stretch his arm out. (Also, Stefon Diggs probably isn't long for Buffalo.) If Brian Thomas is available the Bills better be all over that. I worry about Worthy translating, though.

The Worthy/Tyreek comps seem gracious. There's a huge difference between 5-11/165 and 5-8/185. Tyreek is short, but has always had a dense, muscular build and been very strong/physical off the line and in contested catch situations. Worthy is a flat out string bean. For as fast as he is, he's not very quick off the line and will probably always have trouble getting off vs. physical press coverage. I get that 4.21 is still 4.21, but I think Worthy would be a pretty high-risk 1st-rounder.