Penn State

It's a safe assumption that Trey Hendrickson will be traded, which would leave career backup Joseph Assai (76th-ranked pressure rate) and bust Myles Murphy (only 658 snaps with no sacks through two seasons) as my EDGE starters tomorrow. Finally, a spot for Abdul Carter.

North Dakota State

Current LG Sataoa Laumea is a former 6th-round pick that allowed the highest pressure rate among qualifying guards last season. Current RG Anthony Bradford was ranked 86th in pressure rate allowed among qualifying guards. Sam Darnold falls apart under pressure. Zabel is a perfect system fit. This one was easy-peasy.

Texas

In reality, the value here will probably be an EDGE to groom behind LOLB Haason Reddick, but Reddick is still starter-quality and had a juicy 15.9% pressure rate for PHI only two seasons ago, so while he's likely in decline, he's not yet a liability. This exercise is about replacing starters that are glaring liabilities.

The Bucs have a mostly solid projected starting lineup, but with NCB Tykee Smith expected to move to safety full-time this season, trouble could be brewing at the slot, where former undrafted FA Christian Izien (and his 55.3 PFF coverage grade) is projected to start. Barron offers a vast upgrade as a plug-n-play nickel whose proven ability to bounce all over the secondary would provide insurance for oft-injured starters Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield.

North Carolina

Jaleel McLaughlin. Audric Estime. Tyler Badie. This one was a layup.

Hampton would be fine in DEN's wide zone scheme, but I would have preferred TreVeyon Henderson's receiving and pass-pro chops as an even better scheme fit. However, with Hampton currently at -1200 odds to go in the 1st RD and Henderson at +125, I gotta play by the rules.

Ole Miss

I question Dart's fit in PIT and whether he's even worth a 1st RD investment, but unless Aaron Rodgers puts pen to paper before the draft, rules are rules.

Note: I almost cheated a bit here. Keeanu Benton is currently the starter at PIT's sneakily important 3-4 NT spot, but he's not a run-clogger and really should be moved to 3-4 DE. Should that happen, there wouldn't be a warm body available at NT. Kenneth Grant - who is the next DT in line according to Vegas odds - would be a hand-in-glove fit.

Michigan

This one was surprisingly close. Given LA's struggles vs. the run last season (25th in YPC allowed, 28th in yards allowed after contact, 26th in negative runs forced) and the loss of Poona Ford, I had Kenneth Grant locked and loaded here. Then I did my due diligence and dug into the position-by-position metrics.

As weak as LA's 3-4 D-line was (individually and as a unit) last season, newly acquired one-year stopgap RB Najee Harris may have been even worse. The numbers are not kind:

Out of 46 qualifying RBs, Harris ranked:

34th in EPA per rush
42nd in success rate
30th in runs that failed to gain yardage
40th in rates of runs that result in FD or TD
34th in yards before contact
31st in yards after contact

Honestly, Najee Harris is a tumbleweed. A 1st RD pedigree tumbleweed, but still a tumbleweed. Jim Harbaugh craves a dominant rushing attack. Harris isn't nearly enough.

Last season, Chargers RBs were 29th in explosive rush rate, 27th in pass-catching efficiency and 31st in pass pro efficiency. Najee Harris does nothing to change any of that, but do you know who would? TreVeyon Henderson.

Henderson is widely regarded as this draft's top receiving and pass-pro RB prospect. His 17.7% explosive run rate was 4th in college football. Basically, he's exactly the offensive weapon the Chargers need to complement Harris.

It was a dead heat between Grant and Henderson here, with Grant winning by a nose due to positional value. (It wasn't a Michigan/OSU thing, I promise. It just sucks to be a RB.) However, I won't be surprised at all if the Chargers choose Henderson on Day One.

Kentucky

Come Draft Day, I have a hunch that GB will find a way to come out of the 1st RD with Tet McMillan, Matthew Golden or Emeka Egbuka, but for this purpose of this exercise, I can't ignore the miserable coverage grades for the hodgepodge of 7th-rounders and UFAs that will make up the CB depth chart once Jaire Alexander is traded. (Or even if he isn't traded, given that Alexander is terminally injured.)

Maxwell Hairston more than meets the RAS requirements (9.63) Brian Gutekunst usually goes for with premium picks.

Alabama

With Ed Ingram, Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bullard replaced during free agency, LG Blake Brandel is MIN's lowest-graded (55.7 PFF) holdover starter. Tyler Booker (-600 odds to be drafted in the 1st RD) completes the offseason iOL rebuild.

Note: With just four picks, I'd be surprised if MIN doesn't trade down from this spot, but I'm not opening up that can of worms for this exercise.

Ohio State

Cam Robinson allowed a 9.3% pressure rate (92nd) with 13 penalties (94th) with JAX and MIN last season. His contract is basically a 1-year deal with a minimal dead money hit even if he's released this season. Robinson isn't the LT you sign to be your starter in that game tomorrow - he's the LT you sign just in case the rookie LT that you really want to start in that game tomorrow hasn't recovered from his torn patella tendon.

Alabama

I hate this pick (Loveland is still on the board), but the metrics clearly pinpoint LB as LA's weakest position group, and many team defense stats (29th-ranked RB pass efficiency defense, etc.) suggest the same. I'm just not sure if Les Snead values the LB position enough to burn a 1st RD investment, but maybe it's time he considers it.

With -2000 odds to go in the 1st RD, Campbell obviously has to be the pick over Carson Schwesinger (+300) for this exercise, but in reality, I could see the Rams trading down for Schwesinger should they actually decide to attack the LB position in earnest.

UCLA

I'm sure that in reality BAL would go with the value of Mykel Williams, Shemar Stewart or Colston Loveland in this scenario, but - again - I have to follow the rules. While the Ravens don't have a dominant EDGE, they have serviceable options, and Isaiah Likely is a solid starting option even if Mark Andrews is traded.

I'm forced to reach to address the void at the ILB spot alongside Roquan Smith here. '23 3rd-rounder Trenton Simpson has regressed to the point where he was relegated to ST duties by the end of last season. Essentially, BAL has nothing at ILB2.

Georgia

I'm cheating a bit here. The projected 4-3 DE starter opposite Aidan Hutchinson is Marcus Davenport - who will undoubtedly be injured and miss tomorrow's game because being injured and missing games is all Marcus Davenport does.

Ohio State

WAS has a very solid projected starting lineup. RB is the positional group with the most room for improvement. Brian Robinson's 8 TDs were nice, but he was a well-below average starter by every other metric. (Among starting RBs, he was 25th in explosive runs and last in forced missed tackles, while being a complete non-facor in the passing game.) Backfield complement Austin Ekeler is washed. Pairing Jayden Daniels with TreVeyon Henderson would be a level-up move for WAS.

Ole Miss

CB2 - where the ghost of Tre'Davious White currently sits atop the depth chart - is far and away BUF's most pressing need.

Trey Amos is currently at +125 to go in the 1st RD, well ahead of Shavon Revel (+290), Azareye'h Thomas (+800) and Benjamin Morrison (+900). The Bills have met with Amos multiple times during the pre-draft process.

Oregon

Predictably, RT Jawaan Taylor graded out miserably last season. Of 141 qualifying OTs, he was 139th in penalties (17!!), 127th in sacks allowed (7), 125th in total pressures allowed (37) and 121st in hits allowed (6). His run-blocking was no better. (56.6 grade - ranked 96th)

Conerly is next in line at OT according to Vegas, but I could see the Chiefs opting for the mammoth Aireontae Ersery here.

Ohio State

Projected starting RG Tyler Steen had an abysmal 40.6 PFF grade in limited action last season. Not to be outdone, Kenyon Green - who PHI has brought in to compete at OG - was dead last among 66 qualifying guards with a 38.6 PFF grade.