Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?
My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.
@Mr. Bitter You make a good point on Coleman, and in thinking about it, Fontenot loves freak athleticism, at least in the 1st Round. Coleman can make highlight-reel plays and data suggests that he reaches top speeds when he runs, but the 40 time may simply be a disqualifier for Fontenot. And there are some concerns about separating as well.
Regarding Mitchell, it was just the way the mock played out, and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes as CB1 before Arnold, meaning he could be in play at any time after #10, really. If the Rams don't come away with a CB1 solution during free agency (either by a signing or with a trade), perhaps Mitchell would be the pick over Latu at #19 if both were on the board. I think Latu would be a great pick for them but perhaps the prior medical history would sway them to take Mitchell instead. (And I know you think Chop will go very high, and he may, but I might be too high on him in this mock.)
I'm also really toying with the idea of Penix landing with Seattle, due to the Grubb connection and the fact that Seattle certainly isn't tied to Geno Smith beyond this year. I'm also wondering if the Giants, armed with two 2nd Round picks, do something to try to secure a QB in this draft.
I have a feeling SEA will find a way to come out of this draft with a QB, hell or high water. It's time. Penix makes total sense with the UDub connection, but I wonder if 1.16 is too rich, and there's no guarantee he'll be there for them if they trade down. I mean, if Penix is their guy they should just take him at 1.16, but I also wonder if - with UM guys Macdonald and Harbaugh on the staff - SEA could have intel that makes them just as likely to move up for McCarthy. I'm thinking McCarthy would make even more sense than Penix, as Penix is pretty much maxed out and McCarthy is only 21 and generally regarded as a prospect that may need to sit for a year. The SEA brain trust have kinda made it obvious that they kept Geno Smith around as a 1-year bridge QB. Can't help but think something's brewing. I could see SEA moving up to 1.5 or 1.7 for McCarthy. Total boom-or-bust, but SEA can't just remain in QB limbo forever.
I would love to see Ladd McConkey in ATL's new scheme. He just fits Robinson's offense like a glove and is exactly what they need to complement London and Pitts. Almost feels too obvious with McConkey being a GA Bulldog and all.
I don't know a lot about what Chris Shula's schematic tendencies are, but from what little he offered up in his presser I'm guessing the LAR defense will look about the same next season. That makes Q. Mitchell a good fit, as the Rams were very zone-heavy and Mitchell played exclusively zone at Toledo. Like, he has NO man to be found on tape other than a handful of reps at the Senior Bowl. He looked fine in man at the Senior Bowl, but man-heavy teams may want a bigger sample size. I gotta think he and Arnold pop off in the top-16 (along with my guy Chop lol).
Can't wait for free agency to kick off so we get more clarity. Looking forward to more Champ mocks when the free agency dust settles a bit.
As for the Giants, they definitely should be looking to move on from Daniel Jones. It's just that everyone in the world seems to know that but the Giants. Schoen/Daboll are on the hot seat and I'm not sure if they have a long enough leash for a reset. I could be wrong, but I'm guessing they just sign a veteran retread to challenge DJ. (They're reportedly already sniffing around Russell Wilson. Bad sign.) Sadly, I think this may just be the classic scenario where GM/HC stay loyal to the QB that eventually gets them fired.
@Mr. Bitter Obviously, major news today. With Cousins officially to ATL, we can obviously rule them out for McCarthy or any other QB in the draft. And with Minshew to the Raiders, the landing spots for Justin Fields are close to nil. Minnesota doesn't make sense for a variety of reasons (not a scheme fit, plus unlikely Chicago would risk trading him in the division), and if New England goes QB at 3 (which I think they will), trading for Fields doesn't make sense, either, because you don't give up meaningful draft capital for a one-year rental. (And they can't exercise his fifth-year option if they are taking a QB at 3.)
I think this increases the likelihood of Minnesota trying to make an aggressive move up the board for JJ McCarthy, and I continue to think that a deal with the Chargers at 5 makes the most sense. Quite simply, moving up to 5 should mean that the Chargers wouldn't entertain the thought of Denver or the Raiders moving up into that spot.
Yeah, your MIN/LAC/J.J. McCarthy scenario is looking good after today's FA action. Nice call. Great point about the Chargers being unlikely to do their division rivals any favors, too.
The only potential monkey wrench I foresee is the possibility of Drake Maye slipping. There's a ton of smoke right now about Maye being very overrated by the media, and NFL evaluators seeing him as a mid-1st prospect. I can buy it. He's very erratic, a suspect processor, generally didn't show up in big games, and his athleticism is kinda overrated.
I have a feeling the Pats might do something unexpected at 1.3, whether it's opting for McCarthy over Maye or passing on a QB at 1.3 and trading down. I haven't disqualified NE from the Justin Fields destinations list either. It would be an awful decision, but the Pats are making a flurry of awful decisions right now.
I pretty much crossed Vegas off the list of potential Justin Fields destinations the minute they hired OC Luke Getsy. It's been clearly established that Fields in Getsy's scheme is a square peg/circle situation. It's too bad, because I'm curious to see if Fields could blossom in a dome/warm weather division.
I can't shake the feeling that the Bears won't want to sit at 1.9 and hope that Odunze falls to them. Ryan Poles has been nothing but proactive since taking over as GM. He has shown a knack for smelling blood in the water and fleecing desperate, poorly run organizations (CAR/Young, WAS/Sweat). The Pats currently qualify as a poorly run organization. I have a hunch that Poles could go for the kill shot and trade up to 1.3 for MHJ. The Bears could offer NE 1.9, their 2025 1st-rounder, the 2025 2nd-rounder acquired from CAR, and maybe even Fields.
If MHJ pops off at 1.3, then perhaps ARI would be inclined to trade down. That would open the door for DEN and LV to move up, but even in that scenario, MIN could have the upper hand as they could conceivably offer the Cardinals Justin Jefferson in a trade.
@Mr. Bitter I would be pretty shocked if New England turned to Fields; I think signing Brissett is a clear indication that they want to pick a rookie QB at 3 and have him be the bridge guy. If the move was trading for Fields, I don't think you sign a veteran backup like Brissett, and you don't make them compete. You'd be getting Fields to see what he can do. To me, they would have just kept Zappe in the backup role. I do agree with you that the Pats continue to make curious moves, but it just doesn't line up logically to me. I truly have no idea where Fields may end up. If the Giants bite the bullet on Jones and cut him, maybe, as Drew Lock probably wouldn't be much of an impediment (he only got $5MM). Even still, I find that as a longshot. Denver to me is a longshot because it's such an awful scheme fit with Sean Payton, worse than Russell Wilson was, actually. I really think he may end up on some team as a backup. I also think that it would be a mistake by Chicago to bring him into training camp or even OTA's, because any energy NOT spent going to developing Caleb Williams will be to Chicago's detriment.
Speaking of the Bears, I absolutely could see them trading up for one of Nabers/Odunze, particularly if either of them are still there at #7. As long as the Titans don't want either of those guys for themselves and are eyeing, say, Joe Alt, the Titans could reasonably move to 9 and still get Alt because it's unlikely that Atlanta, at 8, would take him. (Of course, there's always the chance that a team could trade up to 8 for Alt, and that Atlanta could trade down.) On the other hand, the Bears only have 5 picks in this draft, and they clearly won't be getting a premium pick or picks for Fields. As such, I could also see them trading DOWN from 9.
Your speculation on the offseason QB movement has been spot on, and you're right (again) about Brissett. Classic bridge QB. Gotta be a QB at #3.
I grossly overestimated the market for Fields. I figured at least one QB-desperate team would bite on his "upside". Whiff. I should have known that a QB with 38 fumbles, 30 INTs, 135 sacks and a 60% completion rate in 30 career starts doesn't fit ANY system. As you said, he's probably going to need to rehabilitate his stock as a backup somewhere. No idea where that might be.
You're probably right about the Bears being as likely to trade down. I assumed they would address EDGE during FA to free up their 1st round options, but with the few available top shelf EDGE guys already ransacked, it appears they will need to get the EDGE during the draft. (Unless they get crazy and trade for Joey Bosa or Haason Reddick or something.) I'm currently leaning CHI sticking and picking Dallas Turner (if ATL passes on him) or Jared Verse at 1.9, or trading down a bit for my guy Chop Robinson. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears kick the tires on Tee Higgins, either.
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Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?
My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.