I still believe that JJ is going 4th overall, and that Arizona will trade back. I got in a Twitter conversation with Mike Jurecki yesterday, and he said that Arizona would absolutely be interested in a trade back with the Vikings, especially if they can get future draft capital in addition to 11 and 23 this year. And honestly, it makes sense, especially if they can get Minnesota's 1st or 2nd rounder next year. They would have 11, 23, and 27 in the 1st this year in an extremely talented draft class, a pick at 35 that's very high in the 2nd, and 3 picks in the 3rd, two of which are early picks in that round. And while there's no guarantee that they could trade back up to, say, the top 9 to get one of the top 3 WR's, they certainly would have ample draft assets to do so. And even if they don't get one of the top 3 guys, they can plug the obvious holes they have on the roster with all these picks, and there will be good WR's in their range at 23, 27, and 35.
I also can't shake the feeling that it would have made sense for Minnesota to get a promise from a team in the top 4 (which means Arizona, because the top 3 teams are sticking and picking), because the simple fact is that, if they are counting on making the deal at 5 with the Chargers, there's a relatively simple trade that could take place where the Giants jump to 4 to take McCarthy (or Maye if McCarthy is the shock pick at #2), which allows Arizona to still get one of the top 3 WR's. I think Minnesota knew all this beforehand, and I think it's highly likely that Arizona is OK with trading down and getting the haul that they would undoubtedly get.
One final thing that Jurecki said: the Chargers would "rush to the podium" for MHJ is he's there at 5. Not Alt, and not a trade down. I know some don't think Harbaugh will want a premium WR, and they point to his lack of procuring a 5-star WR recruit in college, but I'd push back on that a little bit. First off, we know that he did try to recruit MHJ to Michigan. Second, he saw firsthand how great he was on the field against his Michigan team that was scheming to try and stop him. And lastly, the need is just so dire. There will still be good OL options at #37, and while that's also true for the WR's, the Chargers may believe (with good reason) that MHJ is literally the best player in the draft, and that the gap between MHJ and the WR's at 37 compared to Alt and the OL's available at 37 is greater.
Yeah, I can easily see him going to the Giants, Bears or Jets (as I said in each of their write-ups). But if four QBs and both Turner & Verse go in the Top 10, Bowers or Odunze should make it to #11.
@Warrior Verse seems like a longshot to go in the top 10, though you can get that at +275. Interestingly, Latu has slightly better odds to go top 10 at +250. But yeah, in getting back to Odunze, I just can't see Chicago passing on him if he's there at 9. Keenan Allen could just be a 1-year thing and I think they'd load up on talent for Williams. -1800 is a really, really strong indicator that he's seen as a total blue-chip talent. I don't think Verse is seen quite in that way. I think that Latu might be, but the medical stuff makes him obviously risky. Still, based on the odds that are out there on Latu (he has the second-best odds of being the first defensive player chosen, quite a bit ahead of Verse), I may have to re-think my mock that has Latu going 19th to the Rams. I was just having a hard time slotting him somewhere ahead of that, though. IMO, I don't see a lot of teams between 11-18 looking at edge rushers. Perhaps Denver and Seattle, but I feel like Denver is going to trade down and look at Nix. Seattle is a bit of a wild card since this is Schneider's first year having final say over the roster, but DL/Edge is the second choice for their pick among oddsmakers (behind OL).
Getting back to Odunze though, I believe we will see 4 QB, 3 WR, Alt, Turner, and Bowers go top 10. I feel much more confident that Bowers could slip out of the top 10 as opposed to Odunze, though; Bowers has Even odds of being a top 10 choice. The only team that I think could take Bowers in the top 10 is the team at 10, the Jets, and although he's surely a great talent, he didn't really test at all, and I don't view that the same way that I view MHJ not testing. TE isn't considered a premium position, and I could see the Jets going elsewhere, or trading down. I do think Indy could end a possible Bowers slide at 15, but Ballard is a pretty strict RAS guy, so without testing...I don't know. If there is a "name" player most likely to drop on draft day, I'm going with Bowers.
I don't like predicting trades; I only made an exception this year because it appears blatantly obvious that the Vikings are looking to trade up. Honestly, Odunze to the Chargers felt like the safest move, as I could see him falling to #11 (as I explained) or the Chargers trading back up to get him after trading down (like the Dolphins did a few years ago with Waddle).
I know Verse might be a little high, but I could see the Bears going offense/defense like the Texans did last year with their two 1sts (all the more so when the Bears had a private visit with him). Actually, I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears fall back a few slots and select a Verse or Latu, as they only have four total picks at the moment.
A correct pick in my eyes is accurately predicting the player-to-team, so sometimes the draft slot won't make much sense since I don't normally forecast trades on paper. I don't think DeJean will fall to #29 either, but my gut is telling me the Lions are going to go after him. Basically predicting a trade in my head, if that makes sense. Already difficult enough making mock drafts without executing trades, really only did one for JJ McCarthy because it seems like 100% the Vikings, Broncos or Raiders will jump up and nab him (and the domino effect will change accordingly).
@Warrior Understood! Yeah, I'm going to have to get DeJean back into my 1st Round after he showed he's fine at his workout. Green Bay and Detroit certainly make sense for him, as would Arizona with a pick in the 20's. Brad Holmes has had that Iowa pipeline, too, although you could make the argument that they need a pure outside CB a bit more. As for Green Bay, I think DeJean is a slightly better fit there. I have Green Bay trading up in my current mock but I most likely will scrap almost all of my trades for the Contest Mock here on the site, although I will 100% stick with my McCarthy trade up. Regarding Verse and the Bears, I could see them targeting him but more likely via trade down. And as you point out, the Bears don't have much draft capital after the admittedly-great #1 and #9 picks, so if they don't see a blue-chipper there at #9, it could make a lot of sense to trade down.
@The Champ In the mock draft that WalterFootball released today, he has the same thing happening with Rome Odunze (except with the Cardinals). Not sure why so many people think the Vikings will trade up to #4; trading up to #5 will cost them so much less. Plus, Albert Breer reported that the Cardinals probably won't trade out of #4 because they love Harrison that much. Sure, could be a smokescreen, but I've thought all along that Teams 1-4 would stay put. Makes no sense for the Patriots to pass on the chance at Daniels/Maye or the Cardinals to pass on landing Harrison/Nabers.
The ARI/MHJ chalk always made the most sense. The only way ARI moves out of range for MHJ is if they're offered 3 or 4 1st-rounders or Justin Jefferson. They way Vegas numbers are moving recently strongly suggests it's going to be 1) C. Williams 2) J. Daniels 3) D. Maye 4) MHJ.
There's buzz that McCarthy will come off the board in the 7 to 11 range, not top 6. Vegas numbers are indicating a Brock Bowers slide, too. He was a 7/8 O/U for a while, fell to even odds to be drafted top-10 over the last few days, and is now at 12.5 O/U with heavy action on the over. Adam Shefter just said he's hearing Bowers' range is now in the teens.
@Mr. Bitter Yeah, Williams-Daniels-Maye-Harrison has been my Top 4 ever since the season ended, and I doubt anything will see me change that at this point. The McCarthy info is interesting, but I still think the Chargers make the most sense as a trade partner for the Vikings. The fear of the Giants selecting McCarthy at #6 will see the Vikings want to jump them imo. As for Bowers, well, I see his range as 10-15. Nothing against Shefter, but I've read the Jets will likely come down to Bowers or Odunze (depending on which is on the board). The Colts will end any type of Bowers slide.
I can't see Ballard taking Bowers with zero workout numbers. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. A TE like Theo Johnson (9.99 RAS) on Day 2 seems more Ballard's style.
I think we're all overthinking the Chargers. Joe Alt is a Hortiz/Harbaugh LT if there ever was one.
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I still believe that JJ is going 4th overall, and that Arizona will trade back. I got in a Twitter conversation with Mike Jurecki yesterday, and he said that Arizona would absolutely be interested in a trade back with the Vikings, especially if they can get future draft capital in addition to 11 and 23 this year. And honestly, it makes sense, especially if they can get Minnesota's 1st or 2nd rounder next year. They would have 11, 23, and 27 in the 1st this year in an extremely talented draft class, a pick at 35 that's very high in the 2nd, and 3 picks in the 3rd, two of which are early picks in that round. And while there's no guarantee that they could trade back up to, say, the top 9 to get one of the top 3 WR's, they certainly would have ample draft assets to do so. And even if they don't get one of the top 3 guys, they can plug the obvious holes they have on the roster with all these picks, and there will be good WR's in their range at 23, 27, and 35.
I also can't shake the feeling that it would have made sense for Minnesota to get a promise from a team in the top 4 (which means Arizona, because the top 3 teams are sticking and picking), because the simple fact is that, if they are counting on making the deal at 5 with the Chargers, there's a relatively simple trade that could take place where the Giants jump to 4 to take McCarthy (or Maye if McCarthy is the shock pick at #2), which allows Arizona to still get one of the top 3 WR's. I think Minnesota knew all this beforehand, and I think it's highly likely that Arizona is OK with trading down and getting the haul that they would undoubtedly get.
One final thing that Jurecki said: the Chargers would "rush to the podium" for MHJ is he's there at 5. Not Alt, and not a trade down. I know some don't think Harbaugh will want a premium WR, and they point to his lack of procuring a 5-star WR recruit in college, but I'd push back on that a little bit. First off, we know that he did try to recruit MHJ to Michigan. Second, he saw firsthand how great he was on the field against his Michigan team that was scheming to try and stop him. And lastly, the need is just so dire. There will still be good OL options at #37, and while that's also true for the WR's, the Chargers may believe (with good reason) that MHJ is literally the best player in the draft, and that the gap between MHJ and the WR's at 37 compared to Alt and the OL's available at 37 is greater.
My thoughts, anyway. Just 8 days left!