Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team.
@Mr. Bitter If they love him, then they should take him, yes. Ward is the favorite to go 1st, so if they stick and pick, it very well could be him.
I'm struggling with McMillan. In theory, you could make an argument for him at 6 (Raiders), 7 (Jets), 8 (Panthers), 9 (Saints), 11 (49ers), 12 (Cowboys), and even 13 (Dolphins). But I think those teams have more pressing needs, and if he doesn't go top-13, then I think there could be a bit of a fall. I could also see some teams preferring Golden or Egbuka as the WR1.
I wouldn't be shocked if McMillan went late 1st/early 2nd. I have him as WR4 behind Golden, Burden and Egbuka. Not running a 40 at the Combine did him no favors as far as easing concerns about his speed/separation, and there's talk from his camp that he won't run a 40 at his Pro Day, either.
Shedeur Sanders is another guy that could slide. There's a ton of talk that a lot of teams are very annoyed with the way Sanders has handled the pre-draft process. Sanders seems to be approaching it as if a top-2 spot is guaranteed, when the reality is that he has no outstanding traits and might be behind Dart on some draft boards.
Perhaps McMillan is comfortable with not running because he knows he's going relatively high, so there's no reason to risk anything. As for Sanders, sure, I could see him slipping. That's always possible. However, if Ward does go #1 to the Titans, it's hard for me to imagine Sanders not going #2 to the Browns. As Adam Schefter has pretty much guaranteed, they seem like they have to take a QB. And I'm just guessing that Andrew Berry is not going to be turned off by Sanders' alleged attitude problems.
No doubt the Browns will want a young QB - I'm just not convinced it will be at 1.02 if Ward is off the board. I'm beginning to think - with the way things are trending with Sanders - that the Browns may be able to draft Carter or Hunter at 1.02 then trade into the late 1st for Sanders. I guess I just see the Sanders/top-5 assumption as more media-driven than scouting-based and think he will be a late 1st/early 2nd pick. I could be wrong, but there's buzz (McShay, Berry, etc.) that he won't go as high as most think.
Quick question: Assuming Ashton Jeanty (Feldman Freak) puts on a show at his Pro Day, do you think there's any chance he could go to the Pats or Jags at 4 or 5? I'm really struggling with NE at 1.04 (assuming Carter and Hunter are gone), and wonder if the Pats might simply see Jeanty as the last remaining blue chip and just take him - position value be damned.
@Mr. Bitter Regarding Jeanty, I guess you can't rule it out if Mike Vrabel has heavy influence and wants his new Derrick Henry, so to speak. But if I were them, I'd probably just pick Mason Graham if I couldn't trade down, or Membou if I were convinced he was a true stud tackle. I wouldn't pick Campbell at #4 because of the short arm length. As for whether or not he could go to the Jaguars at #5, I suppose we have to ask ourselves what new GM James Gladstone is likely to do or think. Of course, we have no history to go on, but we do know that he comes from the Rams front office. And while the Rams haven't had a lot of 1st Round picks recently, they have clearly prioritized the OL and DL from a team-building perspective. Therefore, my guess is that the Jags go in that direction with their pick, but who knows. It is true that Walker Little and Anton Harrison are quality young bookend tackles, so drafting a guard at #6 (to replace Brandon Scherff) doesn't really have value. And if Graham is gone, the next-best DT probably doesn't either. It would be a tough position to be in, for sure.
1.04 and 1.05 are tough spots. I'd be very surprised if 1-2-3 wasn't some combination of Ward/Carter/Hunter. Carter, Hunter and Jeanty are the only legit blue chips in this draft IMO and I think most team boards will reflect that. Beyond Ward and those three, boards will vary wildly. Trading out of 1.04 and 1.05 will be extremely difficult for NE and JAX.
I'm not sure about Mason Graham in the top-10. The film and metrics obviously speak for themselves, but the sub-300 weigh-in and alligator arms are a concern. Add to that the quality DT depth that will be available on Day 2 and I wonder if Graham slides. I think he'd be great in the middle of the JAX D-line to complement Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, but with Arik Armstead moving back to his natural DT spot and guys like Tyliek Williams, Walter Nolan, Alfred Collins, Derrick Harmon, etc. potentially there for JAX at 2.36, is Graham the best value for JAX at 1.04?
Priority One for both NE and JAX will be affording their young QBs every opportunity for success. While "when in doubt, draft O-line" is usually a solid philosophy when building around a QB, I don't like the value of Membou (LT only in theory) or Campbell (arm length would make him a historic LT outlier) over the value the impact of a potential LaDainian Tomlinson/Saquan Barkley-type like Jeanty could provide. Tackle-breaking ability is the most stable metric for predicting NFL success for a RB prospect, and Jeanty's yards after contact is just insane. He would be a QB's best friend and immediately establish an offensive identity.
@Mr. Bitter I still think that Sanders will go 2nd overall if Ward goes first to any team other than the Browns. The Browns just can't know for sure that they can get a QB either at 33 or by trading back up. Heck, the QB3 of this draft (likely Dart) could conceivably go as high as #18 to Seattle or #21 to Pittsburgh. (I doubt we'll see that player go much earlier to a team like the Jets or Saints in the top 10, but stranger things have happened!) And there is a massive drop-off after Dart this year. Massive. Jalen Milroe is AWFUL, sorry. Will Howard and Riley Leonard are clipboard holders at the next level. Ewers has no arm strength. The only guy with potential to me is Shough, and he's going to be 26 by the start of the season, so I don't see the analytically-driven front office of the Browns picking him 33rd, nor should they.
I just don't think Sanders goes that high with what the film shows and what I've been reading lately. We just disagree on that. But I will admit - if any team is going to take Sanders over Hunter/Carter, it's the Browns.
Just so many red flags with Sanders. I'll admit that he has a consistency and toughness to his game, but beyond that there's not a lot to like. Even his pretty accuracy % is misleading, as he led the nation in passes at or behind the LOS. Watching deep dives into his game, I haven't seen much more than short layups to targets schemed wide open by Shurmur. When Sanders does push it downfield, it's almost always to Hunter, who contorts his body and makes lemonade out of lemons because he's a badass like that. Also: Sander's self-created pressure rate/sacks caused numbers are astronomical. That's rarely something that improves at the next level. His mind writes checks that his marginal athleticism can't cash.
I think the character concerns are well beyond alleged. Just in the last season, he's pushed a referee, tried to poke a Colorado State defender in the eye, and ruthlessly threw his O-line under the bus in a post-game presser. Nearly every NFL draft insider has reported that his team interviews have been shit shows. "Entitled" and "disinterested" are the words being thrown around most often. Deion even called in on interviews, which is...weird. Teams might be willing to ignore all the noise if Sanders had elite traits, but he doesn't.
It's just baffling to me that the media (especially ESPN) keeps pushing the narrative that Sanders is a top prospect in this draft. I'm beginning to wonder if it's a long-game setup to an "unexpected" draft day slide for Sanders. Dramatic TV. I'm not even kidding.
)
