If CHI wants to trade up for Jeanty, I'm thinking 1.04 is the spot. I don't see why the Jags wouldn't take Jeanty at 1.05 for themselves. Etienne is on the trade block and the new regime has no loyalty to Tank Bigsby. The Patriots could have interest in Jeanty too, but Rhamondre Stevenson's new contract makes it difficult to move on from him. The Pats could trade down to 1.10 - which would be a more palatable range for Loveland, Warren, Tet or one of the OTs - while picking up 2.39 or 2.41 from CHI.
@Mr. Bitter I wouldn't rule out Jeanty to the Jags, sure. However, it's quite possible that the new GM may want to get extra assets and may think that a RB is simply not the right pick for them, no matter how good he is. I certainly agree that Etienne isn't someone you plant your flag for, nor Bigsby. But they may feel like moving down for, say, one of the Bears' high-2nd Round picks (possibly while giving up one of their own picks much later) is smart business. Something like #5 and #107 for #10 and #41 is close on the trade value chart. Perhaps they could add their top-rated defensive player at 10, and because this draft is so rich with RB talent, they could grab a RB upgrade on Day 2 where they'd have picks #36, 41, 70, and 88. Just a thought.
I think three RBs go in the 1st round. (Jeanty/Hampton/Henderson) DAL's signings of Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders has me wondering if they think that not only will Jeanty be off the board by 1.12, but Hampton too. Hampton is a stud that's kinda being lost in the shuffle right now. I wouldn't be shocked if CHI takes him at 1.10.
DEN has made no effort to upgrade their RB room so far, which makes me wonder if Payton and company might have their eyes on Henderson at 1.20, just as they were very obviously targeting system-fit/"overdraft" Bo Nix last year. Henderson's skill set is about as close to Alvin Kamara's as you'll find.
I think Jeanty will be very appealing to JAX because it's all about making sure Trevor Lawrence maximizes his potential for them. That's their primary focus right now and largely why Coen was hired. A Tomlinson-type workhorse RB would be more valuable in that capacity than a trade down for a DT or CB2 or something and a RD 2 "maybe" like Judkins or Kaleb Johnson, IMO.
I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.
Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.
Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.
I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.
I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.
I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.
Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.
@Mr. Bitter I almost put Zabel at 18 to Seattle and think that could happen if they don't go WR. And hey, they did sign MVS today, though that shouldn't preclude them from picking a WR they love if one is available.
Booker could be a fit if he makes it to the Ravens, sure.
Totally agree with the logic of trading Pickens, as I have no doubt that they don't want to commit to him long-term. As far as Tyreek, I could see that too, but that regime might be on the hot seat, so if they think that trading him hurts their team, I don't know, that might be a tough sell.
I'm going to update my mock and put Tet at #8 to Carolina. I'm getting the vibe that he's the clear WR1 (not counting Hunter), and the Panthers don't have a game-breaker for Bryce Young. McMillan may not have 4.3 wheels or anything, but make no mistake, he's a playmaker and he's been a star since he stepped onto a college field.
I don't think Egbuka would make it to 26, just because of the chatter that he will run in the 4.3's at his Pro Day. If that happens, combined with his production and pedigree (Ohio St. is churning out pro WR's like a mother), heck, I could see him going top 20. As I write in this mock, maybe this is the year that Gutekunst goes against form and finally picks a WR in the 1st, like Roseman did with a CB last year. It's such a clear and obvious need for them.
I'm also going to need to change Loveland going 20th to the Broncos now. The signing of Evan Engram in free agency suggests to me that the Broncos don't think that he will be available there. I will have Hampton going with that pick now, which will have to bump someone from this latest mock.
Tet makes a lot of sense for CAR at 1.08. I question Tet's ceiling; I think the Mike Evans comps are generous...more of a Michael Thomas, maybe Marques Colston-type, IMO. But that's still really good and this draft doesn't have a lot of blue chippers, so Tet could easily be not too far behind the blue chip Carter/Hunter/Jeanty clump on certain team's draft boards.
I have a hunch Loveland will come off the board before Warren. I'm not sure if Warren has the athleticism to do the things he did at Penn State at the pro level. Definite 1st-rounder, but I think he could linger to the late teens/20s.
Hampton would be a nice fit in DEN. Henderson, too. With the way the Broncos are ticking off "need" boxes, I would love to see them move up for Jeanty if he's somehow still on the board in the teens. (But he won't be. All those mocks that force Jeanty to DAL at 1.12 crack me up. I'd bet a pinkie that he won't be there.) Jeanty would be absolute hell on wheels in the DEN scheme.
I've toyed with the idea of CHI moving up a few spots to secure Jeanty. He's what that offense needs.
@Mr. Bitter Yeah, Jeanty would not get by the Bears at 10. (If they were to move up for him, it would have to be to 4 or 5, and I could see either the Pats or the Jags moving down.) I have the Bears actually going with Warren, as I think they've shored up the OL need and maybe Warren's blocking would be something that Johnson really appreciates, in addition to the receiving. Cole Kmet wasn't good last season (PFF grade barely above 60) and would only leave behind a cheap dead cap hit next year, so they could absolutely consider Warren imo.
You also convinced me on Booker being a better fit for the Ravens than Zabel would be. He gets downhill with power, and that's what they want to do in the run game.
I've thought about Loveland or Warren to CHI, but Kmet is still young (just turned 26 a week ago) and could improve in Ben Johnson's TE-friendly system. The Bears also signed Durham Smythe for his blocking and familiarity with Johnson's system from their days together at MIA. Unless CHI plans on trading Kmet, a TE at 1.10 seems unlikely. Not impossible, though.
I think a versatile stud LB (Jalon Walker, Jihaad Campbell) is a darkhorse option for CHI at 1.10. Edmunds and Edwards were Eberflus scheme-specific signings and both could easily be gone by 2026. Walker and Campbell both have the skill set to thrive in the Zack Baun role in Dennis Allen's scheme.
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