This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.
My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.
Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.
I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.
I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)
And as always, it's TravisHunternomatterwhat for the Titans. I will die on this hill.
The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.
@Mr. Bitter I actually think that Sanders fits Callahan's scheme better than Ward does, too, but I think this is a Borgonzi pick. He probably has visions of a bigger Jayden Daniels in his head and doesn't care who the coach is and just wasn't willing to fire him after the one year. I'm guessing he'll be willing to fire him after this next season if it doesn't go well and if he doesn't show that he can adapt to whatever Ward does best. Perhaps similar to what the Patriots did with Maye and then firing an in-over-his-head Jerod Mayo. Maybe they figure, just get the franchise QB and don't worry about who the coach is, as he can pick his guy next year.
Fair point. If the coaching staff can't coach to the strengths of the best players provided, then maybe they're just not a very good coaching staff.
Still, the notion that Ward is leaps and bounds better than any other QB in this crop is a fallacy. Sanders is likely above Ward on a few draft boards. Ward is like Sanders and Dart - a 2nd RD value inflated into the 1st RD due to the NFL's desperation for QBs. Ward just happened to have a super-clean pre-draft process and rode that helium all the way to #1 overall. For me, there is no way to justify taking Ward over Travis Hunter, no matter how desperate you are at QB. The Titans are almost guaranteeing that they'll be the NFL version of the Portland Trailblazers selecting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan because Portland NEEDED a center.
I know that you're just speculating on what Borgonzi might be thinking, but Ward is nowhere close to Daniels as a decision-maker or as an athlete. Should Ward maximize every ounce of potential he has, he's maybe Tony Romo. Ward's game features subtle escapability, various arm angles, the off-platform stuff...I think Borgonzi - coming from KC - might be squinting hard enough to see Patrick Mahomes.
I find it interesting that Jaxson Dart's draft position O/U is comfortably at 24.5, a bit to the under. That's MIN's pick, and almost definitely a trade down spot. None of the teams picking 25 through 32 need a QB, so that trade up for Dart would be coming from the top of the 2nd RD.
@Mr. Bitter Yes, Ward is not as good of a prospect as Daniels is. I was just trying to say that I'm sure the Titans hope that he has that type of impact, where even if they don't win right away, it's clear he's a franchise QB. Perhaps Drake Maye would have been the better comp as far as that goes, since we all think he can play despite the terrible surroundings he had last year. I do think it helps Ward that he is highly experienced, and the NFL just saw Bo Nix succeed with a similar resume.
MIN is an obvious trade-down team for sure. I like the 24.5 O/U number, and as he's -1000 to go in the 1st, I'd probably take the under there. He could certainly go to PIT at 21, a team could trade into 24 for him, and the Rams at 26 have been connected to him as well. (And the Rams could trade down for sure, given the lack of a 2nd rounder.) Washington is the other obvious trade-down team near the end of Round 1, without 3rd and 5th rounders.
I just don't see Dart as a fit in PIT. His arm would not play well in AFC North weather or in a deep-passing scheme. Dart is a sunshine boy. I think Charlie Campbell had a blurb about how PIT doesn't value Dart as a 1st-rounder.
The Rams should have interest in Sanders or Dart. I just don't know if LA would move up for a QB given their lack of draft currency and needs in the secondary. It's tough to say what they'll do because Stafford's age calls for "win now" moves, yet Stafford's age also calls for locating an heir at QB.
For what it's worth, I think the Rams would be the best NFL fit for Shedeur Sanders. The way the OVER odds on Sanders' draft position O/U number keep bloating, a deep slide looks very possible.
@Mr. Bitter Just keep in mind that Dart has met with Pittsburgh on a top 30 and that Milroe hasn't. At least, not yet. Much more often than not, the Steelers have top 30's with their eventual 1st Round pick. So I'll be watching there to see if that changes. I don't see Dart's arm strength being a problem, personally, and it's certainly no worse than Pickett's arm, right? (I have other concerns with Dart, of course, but that's another story.)
Totally agree that Sanders' best landing spot would be the Rams. I think he is actually good and behind a good OL and great coach with good weapons around him, yeah, I think he would be very interesting there in 2026. They'd have to trade up for him, as I find it hard to believe that he would get past the Steelers at 21. I could see the Panthers at 8 being a trade-up spot for Sanders, to jump the Saints at 9. And here's a darkhorse candidate to take a QB: Seattle. Darnold's contract is effectively a 1-year deal if they want it to be, and John Schneider made public comments that pushed back on the notion that this year's QB class is underwhelming. After watching Atlanta take Penix last year after giving a QB a $100MM guarantee in free agency, I can't say that Seattle taking a QB would surprise me in the least.
100% agree on SEA, even after the whatever Drew Lock signing. Schneider is coming out of this draft with a developmental QB. With all that Day Two currency, the Seahawks should be able to easily work the board for their target QB, whether it's Sanders in the 1st, Shough or Howard later on, whatever. Sanders/SEA feels like a super-obvious match that everyone is willfully ignoring for some reason.
I've come around on Sanders a bit. He's obviously over-hyped, but when you ignore the noise, temper expectations and just concentrate on his on-field strengths, it's easy to see him thrive in a Shanahan-tree, rhythm/YAC system. Sanders is undeniably tough as hell, too. That's no small factor for a QB.
Another sneaky Sanders spot to watch out for is 1.07 and my Jets. I'm not buying the "we're all in on Justin Fields" stuff. He's freakin' Justin Fields. NY's new OC just came from DET and built a scoring machine around Jared Goff, whose game is comparable to Sanders'.
I'm completely baffled as to what CLE's plan is at QB. Flacco/Pickett reeks of TANK JOB, but you don't give Myles Garrett that bag if you're planning on tanking. I've (kinda) given up on the TEN/CLE/Ward trade thing, so now I have no idea what the Browns will do at QB. Maybe JAX trades up to 1.02 for Travis Hunter, then the Browns mega-reach for Dart at 1.05? Just no clue.
@Mr. Bitter Sanders could do what Tua is doing for Miami quite easily. The Dolphins are so scared of Tua taking another hard hit and being out for his career that they just throw everything as fast as possible. You're telling me Sanders couldn't execute that? I know that's just one team, but yeah, I feel like he can come in and play right away for someone. And despite speculation, I don't see the Saints full-on tanking. It's just not how they have operated, and there isn't a strong team in that division. Playing .500 football has given you a chance to win that division for 3-4 years in a row, and it just so happens that it's Tampa Bay that has pulled it off. If Loomis sees Drew Brees-lite, he's going to take him.
And I, too, wouldn't rule out Sanders to the Jets, I suppose. I will not predict it unless there's significant smoke for it, however.
That's the thing about the draft - the picks that ruin everyone's mocks are the ones that had zero smoke. (ATL/Penix) We get so caught up in filtering out worthwhile nuggets from the constant stream of pre-draft speculation that we forget to consider what's not being said.
This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.
My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.
Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.
I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.
I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)
And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.
The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.