I think I'm going to have to make some changes to what I have at the moment. The chatter seems to be that Jihaad Campbell is going to end up on PUP, so I may drop him from 19th to Tampa, a pairing I have had for weeks. I think they see themselves as contenders, so perhaps they aren't willing to use their first pick on a guy who seems destined to have a lingering injury into the season. (Maybe that's a spot for Starks, 19 to Tampa.) Conversely, Josh Simmons seems to have gotten a positive medical evaluation and I'm getting the sense that he will be long gone before 31; he's a legit LT prospect in a draft with virtually none of them. I also really want to find a way to get Egbuka back into Round 1, as this is a proven producer who didn't take a backseat to other outstanding Ohio St. teammates, who interviewed remarkably well with teams, and who is a plus in the run game too because of his well he blocks. I may end up dropping Henderson back out of Round 1 and just slotting Hampton back to Denver, but damn, I really love that Henderson fit for them.
For what it's worth, the Pewter Report - where Charlie Campbell used to work - like Donovan Ezeiruaka at 1.19 and Demetrius Knight or Jeffrey Bassa in RD 3 or 4 for the Bucs. They've been on Ezeiruaka all along and never seriously considered Jihaad Campbell there. They have historically been pretty sharp with TB's picks.
The UNDER on Egbuka's 29.0 O/U (-275) and OVER on the 2.5 total WRs drafted in the 1sr RD (-280) are getting juicier. I think Egbuka is a pretty safe 1st RD bet.
I have to agree on TreVeyon Henderson. I love Henderson and his fit in DEN, WAS or even with the Chargers, but he's always been a tandem RB, and a tandem RB is an unlikely 1st-rounder. I'm considering DL or CB for DEN now - Payton could easily like Day Two guys like Kaleb Johnson or D.J Giddens.
Be careful how high you slot Josh Simmons. I live in Columbus. Trust me - be careful.
You know what...scratch that about Henderson. Jahmyr Gibbs is a tandem RB and he popped off at 1.12. There are always surprise 1st RD picks and explosive offensive weapons are at a premium. I like Henderson better than Hampton, and Feldman's article suggests that a lot of NFL decision-makers feel the same. I'm finding a spot for Henderson in the 1st RD.
If you have access to The Athletic, check out Bruce Feldman's latest article. It's a position-by-position scroll of quotes from NFL scouts and coordinators about prospects that he's heard throughout the pre-draft process. It's similar to the Bob McGinn series, but less mean-spirited and likely more legit. Feldman's 2024 edition was mostly spot on as far as speculation as to where the prospects might pop off.
I'm currently banging out my contest mock and have prioritized pinpointing where the QB prospects are going to go and kinda working around that. Here's what I think I think so far:
Cam Ward/TEN - Mistake, but inevitable.
Shedeur Sanders/PIT - It's simple. Aaron Rodgers wants to start for a contender. PIT is the only realistic option left for him. Rodgers is literally waiting to see if PIT drafts Sanders or Dart, and if they do, he'll retire.
I don't care how bloated the OVER number on Sanders' 9.5 O/U gets or how much smoke there is that he'll tumble out of the 1st RD - if Penix and Nix went as high as they did in a much stronger draft, then Sanders is going in the 1st RD, with 1.21 his absolute floor.
Jaxson Dart/CLE - Whether it's a trade up from 2.33 or at 2.33, I think Dart will be CLE's target. Dart is this draft's QB analytics darling and no team emphasizes analytics like CLE. Dart is also going to be a bust; drafting QB busts is what the Browns do.
I'm getting the feeling that 1.06 could be a sneaky spot for Sanders. Geno Smith is approaching 35 and basically on a one-year deal. O'Connell is on the trading block. Brady has a history with the Sanders family. Sure, if Jeanty pops off at 1.05, the Raiders could pivot to a RT like Membou, Jalon Walker, maybe even Mykel Williams or Tet McMillan, but I think they would consider Sanders just as strongly. The Raiders have quietly been bringing in all the QBs for Top 30s and WOs, too.
The Rams might consider Dart, but it's impossible to say because they do their scouting in-season and meet with prospects virtually. I'm going to assume they ride with Stafford/Garoppolo one more year.
I think SEA will come out of Day Two with Will Howard or Tyler Shough.
If PIT doesn't get Sanders or Dart, then Rodgers signs with PIT and maybe the Steelers grab a Will Howard or Kyle McCord in the 3rd/4th RD.
Chris Ballard will ride with AR/Danny Dimes because he's a drunken idiot.
I really like that ATL/Ersery pick. McGary is a much better run-blocker than pass-blocker, and he's now the blindside protector with the lefty under center. ATL has been scouting OTs heavily during the pre-draft process. I just wonder if Ersery makes it out of the top 40. He's in play for KC and PHI at the bottom of RD 1.
I think the Giants might like Milroe, too. There's the Bama connection, and while the Giants aren't winning the SB with that Wilson/Winston QB room, it's the kinda QB situation that suggests a project rookie QB that might need a redshirt season. That seems to point more toward Milroe than Sanders/Dart. Milroe's raw, rushing threat/bazooka-but-inaccurate arm skill set has parallels to early Josh Allen, who Daboll was instrumental in refining in BUF.
Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.
Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?
"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the
Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025
before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"
The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.
"...Booker is a plug-and-play
starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"
This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.
Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.
@Mr. Bitter Yeah, I thought his mock was strange for sure. I saw him on an Establish The Run podcast yesterday with Adam Levitan and Anthony Amico, and he kept saying that there's no difference between pick 5 and 40 this year. Look, while this year it seems like there are fewer true 1st Round grades on players, it's not THAT bad. Like, Mason Graham is not going at pick #40 lol.
I did like much of Amico's thought process. And after some further intel from the likes of he, Scott Smith, and Jeremiah, I'm going to make further changes to the mock today. Golden back at #12 over McMillan, for one. Dart back into the 1st Round, for another. Might move Barron up as well; just think he's too "safe" in a draft with fewer sure things.
Yeah, I don't see it with Dart. (Then again, evaluating QBs isn't my strong suit...or the strong suit for some NFL decision-makers going by draft history.) But too many dialed-in guys are guaranteeing Dart goes in the 1st RD. Seems inevitable at this point.
Not buying the Tyler Shough stuff for a second, though. That's a 3rd-4th rounder.
I'm surprised at how down some experts are on Kelvin Banks. I've been going back to the film over the last few days just to kinda reset after absorbing so much media speculation over the last few weeks, and Banks' LT skill set is as good as any in this class. I like him better than Campbell, honestly. Campbell definitely does the job, but in a very upright, sort of lumbering fashion. Banks' footwork makes Campbell look stuck in the mud by comparison, and I see a lot more getting in that chest and guiding with Banks than with Campbell, who gets away with some catch-and-hug because his anchor is so strong. Just can't figure out why guys have Banks going in the late 1st. Banks' current O/U is 13.5 to the UNDER, but I'm still worried that I'm missing something.
Rewatched Shemar Stewart's film. A lot better than you would think. His motor runs hot. He could be a monster. I think he's gonna go higher than people think.
@Mr. Bitter Oh, you're right about Banks. And the sense I have is that he's going to go pretty high. I have had him 11th to the 49ers for a while, and in looking at the intel I can gather, he seems to have a chance to go as high as 7th to the Jets, as they could reasonably prefer him to Membou. (New England just seems set on Campbell.) Hell, maybe even 6th to the Raiders if they pass on Jeanty. 6, 7, 9, and 10 could be possibilities for him as well; the Saints at 9, especially, seem to be a total wild card. I don't see him getting past the 49ers at 11, and certainly not past the Dolphins at 13. From what I can gather, the 49ers are looking hard at Banks (or Membou, if he slips) at OL, along with Stewart and Mykel Williams for DL. I'm guessing that Banks has priority for them.
As for Dart, I can understand why QB-needy teams like him. Despite playing a lot of college football, he doesn't turn 22 until May. He has a good arm along with good mobility, too. Yes, the offense he played in is probably a concern, given that what he was asked to do was limited. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that he can't process well or couldn't run a more pro-style offense. I like the match with the Steelers now because Rodgers is leaving them in the lurch, they can't think that Mason Rudolph is going to be their starter for the whole season (and hopefully not in Week 1, ha), and from what I gather, the Sanders meeting with them was terrible.
Derek Carr is obviously trying to force his way out of New Orleans. I mean, 1.09 has to be a QB, right? (Rattler sucks.) Jeremiah and Albert Breer have both said that they're hearing teams flat-out don't like Sanders in the 1st RD. (Jeremiah literally said, "It's not a rumor, it's a fact".) Dart at 1.09?
I watched some Membou film along with Campbell and Banks. I'm not sure if he can play LT. That Combine-verified athleticism shows on tape, but really only when he's moving forward, getting out on the run to block - not in pass pro. It's more like watching a really nimble pulling guard than an OT. He makes sense for the Raiders and Jets as a plug-n-play RT, but so do Aireonte Ersery, Ozzy Trapilo and Emery Jones on Day Two. I wonder if Membou might slide a bit.
My issues with Dart go beyond the Kiffin-system stuff. I know it sounds weird, but I get that kinda privileged, Zach Wilson vibe from Dart. The kind of QB personality that doesn't get taken seriously in an NFL locker room and rubs guys the wrong way.
@Mr. Bitter I don't think the Saints are going to go with a QB at 9. If they weren't going to with Carr thought to play the season, if he doesn't now, why would that change anything? They'd only take a guy if they loved them, and at 9, I don't see them liking Dart more than any non-QB. Despite my thoughts that Loomis might really like Sanders because of his accuracy and processing skills, the fact is that they never met with him, and it would be unheard of to take a 1st Round QB that you never met with. It just doesn't work like that. The Steelers met with Dart (and Sanders) and they almost always draft a player they met with on a 30 visit, and with the Rodgers uncertainty, one of those guys is going to be a Steeler, most likely. If it's not Sanders and if he slips as far as, say, 24, that's a perfect trade up spot for the Browns to reunite him with Hunter, and it wouldn't even cost that much to trade up from 33 to 24. If Sanders goes 21st to the Steelers, then a team could trade into 24 for Dart (Browns or Giants, possibly, with the other team then looking at Milroe, perhaps). You could also see the Steelers try to trade up (15?) for one of Sanders/Dart.
Also: You probably already know, but Ashton Jeanty's draft position O/U went from 9.5 to 6.5 today, still juiced to the UNDER. Mason Graham - whose 5.5 number was like U -250 a week ago - is now EVEN at 5.5.
@Mr. Bitter Yeah,I never really saw Jeanty dropping to, say, 10. Just too elite of a prospect in a draft without any blue-chippers apart from Hunter and Carter. You were pounding the table for Jeanty to go as high as 4th overall, and while I don't see that (they just really seem committed to fixing their God-awful OL), I wouldn't be shocked in the least if he goes 5th overall. Perhaps the Jags just take him for themselves, if they think there's very little difference between Graham and the DT's that could be there in the early 2nd. Or, perhaps more likely, the Jags are willing to move down and a team comes up to take Jeanty, sniping him away from the Raiders. The Bears obviously come to mind, given that they have two early 2nd Round picks. The other could be Denver, though they'd have to give up a lot more than Chicago would.
As for Milroe, sure, I can't say it would surprise me if Pittsburgh took him at 21. It seems like he's not going to drop below either the Browns or Giants in the early 2nd, so who knows. But he's nowhere near pro ready, like, NOWHERE NEAR. So that would mean you run the risk of Mason Rudolph starting for you all year if Rodgers doesn't come. For that reason, I do think they would be more likely to draft Sanders or Dart, if available. (And I think at least one of them will be.)
This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.
My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.
Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.
I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.
I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)
And as always, it's TravisHunternomatterwhat for the Titans. I will die on this hill.
The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.
@Mr. Bitter I actually think that Sanders fits Callahan's scheme better than Ward does, too, but I think this is a Borgonzi pick. He probably has visions of a bigger Jayden Daniels in his head and doesn't care who the coach is and just wasn't willing to fire him after the one year. I'm guessing he'll be willing to fire him after this next season if it doesn't go well and if he doesn't show that he can adapt to whatever Ward does best. Perhaps similar to what the Patriots did with Maye and then firing an in-over-his-head Jerod Mayo. Maybe they figure, just get the franchise QB and don't worry about who the coach is, as he can pick his guy next year.
Fair point. If the coaching staff can't coach to the strengths of the best players provided, then maybe they're just not a very good coaching staff.
Still, the notion that Ward is leaps and bounds better than any other QB in this crop is a fallacy. Sanders is likely above Ward on a few draft boards. Ward is like Sanders and Dart - a 2nd RD value inflated into the 1st RD due to the NFL's desperation for QBs. Ward just happened to have a super-clean pre-draft process and rode that helium all the way to #1 overall. For me, there is no way to justify taking Ward over Travis Hunter, no matter how desperate you are at QB. The Titans are almost guaranteeing that they'll be the NFL version of the Portland Trailblazers selecting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan because Portland NEEDED a center.
I know that you're just speculating on what Borgonzi might be thinking, but Ward is nowhere close to Daniels as a decision-maker or as an athlete. Should Ward maximize every ounce of potential he has, he's maybe Tony Romo. Ward's game features subtle escapability, various arm angles, the off-platform stuff...I think Borgonzi - coming from KC - might be squinting hard enough to see Patrick Mahomes.
I find it interesting that Jaxson Dart's draft position O/U is comfortably at 24.5, a bit to the under. That's MIN's pick, and almost definitely a trade down spot. None of the teams picking 25 through 32 need a QB, so that trade up for Dart would be coming from the top of the 2nd RD.
@Mr. Bitter Yes, Ward is not as good of a prospect as Daniels is. I was just trying to say that I'm sure the Titans hope that he has that type of impact, where even if they don't win right away, it's clear he's a franchise QB. Perhaps Drake Maye would have been the better comp as far as that goes, since we all think he can play despite the terrible surroundings he had last year. I do think it helps Ward that he is highly experienced, and the NFL just saw Bo Nix succeed with a similar resume.
MIN is an obvious trade-down team for sure. I like the 24.5 O/U number, and as he's -1000 to go in the 1st, I'd probably take the under there. He could certainly go to PIT at 21, a team could trade into 24 for him, and the Rams at 26 have been connected to him as well. (And the Rams could trade down for sure, given the lack of a 2nd rounder.) Washington is the other obvious trade-down team near the end of Round 1, without 3rd and 5th rounders.
I just don't see Dart as a fit in PIT. His arm would not play well in AFC North weather or in a deep-passing scheme. Dart is a sunshine boy. I think Charlie Campbell had a blurb about how PIT doesn't value Dart as a 1st-rounder.
The Rams should have interest in Sanders or Dart. I just don't know if LA would move up for a QB given their lack of draft currency and needs in the secondary. It's tough to say what they'll do because Stafford's age calls for "win now" moves, yet Stafford's age also calls for locating an heir at QB.
For what it's worth, I think the Rams would be the best NFL fit for Shedeur Sanders. The way the OVER odds on Sanders' draft position O/U number keep bloating, a deep slide looks very possible.
@Mr. Bitter Just keep in mind that Dart has met with Pittsburgh on a top 30 and that Milroe hasn't. At least, not yet. Much more often than not, the Steelers have top 30's with their eventual 1st Round pick. So I'll be watching there to see if that changes. I don't see Dart's arm strength being a problem, personally, and it's certainly no worse than Pickett's arm, right? (I have other concerns with Dart, of course, but that's another story.)
Totally agree that Sanders' best landing spot would be the Rams. I think he is actually good and behind a good OL and great coach with good weapons around him, yeah, I think he would be very interesting there in 2026. They'd have to trade up for him, as I find it hard to believe that he would get past the Steelers at 21. I could see the Panthers at 8 being a trade-up spot for Sanders, to jump the Saints at 9. And here's a darkhorse candidate to take a QB: Seattle. Darnold's contract is effectively a 1-year deal if they want it to be, and John Schneider made public comments that pushed back on the notion that this year's QB class is underwhelming. After watching Atlanta take Penix last year after giving a QB a $100MM guarantee in free agency, I can't say that Seattle taking a QB would surprise me in the least.
100% agree on SEA, even after the whatever Drew Lock signing. Schneider is coming out of this draft with a developmental QB. With all that Day Two currency, the Seahawks should be able to easily work the board for their target QB, whether it's Sanders in the 1st, Shough or Howard later on, whatever. Sanders/SEA feels like a super-obvious match that everyone is willfully ignoring for some reason.
I've come around on Sanders a bit. He's obviously over-hyped, but when you ignore the noise, temper expectations and just concentrate on his on-field strengths, it's easy to see him thrive in a Shanahan-tree, rhythm/YAC system. Sanders is undeniably tough as hell, too. That's no small factor for a QB.
Another sneaky Sanders spot to watch out for is 1.07 and my Jets. I'm not buying the "we're all in on Justin Fields" stuff. He's freakin' Justin Fields. NY's new OC just came from DET and built a scoring machine around Jared Goff, whose game is comparable to Sanders'.
I'm completely baffled as to what CLE's plan is at QB. Flacco/Pickett reeks of TANK JOB, but you don't give Myles Garrett that bag if you're planning on tanking. I've (kinda) given up on the TEN/CLE/Ward trade thing, so now I have no idea what the Browns will do at QB. Maybe JAX trades up to 1.02 for Travis Hunter, then the Browns mega-reach for Dart at 1.05? Just no clue.
@Mr. Bitter Sanders could do what Tua is doing for Miami quite easily. The Dolphins are so scared of Tua taking another hard hit and being out for his career that they just throw everything as fast as possible. You're telling me Sanders couldn't execute that? I know that's just one team, but yeah, I feel like he can come in and play right away for someone. And despite speculation, I don't see the Saints full-on tanking. It's just not how they have operated, and there isn't a strong team in that division. Playing .500 football has given you a chance to win that division for 3-4 years in a row, and it just so happens that it's Tampa Bay that has pulled it off. If Loomis sees Drew Brees-lite, he's going to take him.
And I, too, wouldn't rule out Sanders to the Jets, I suppose. I will not predict it unless there's significant smoke for it, however.
That's the thing about the draft - the picks that ruin everyone's mocks are the ones that had zero smoke. (ATL/Penix) We get so caught up in filtering out worthwhile nuggets from the constant stream of pre-draft speculation that we forget to consider what's not being said.
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Aaaaand of course my Jets drafted the OT with the highest bust potential, IMO.
Any idea on what position the Rams are targeting at 2.46? I'm thinking CB.
Passing up Travis Hunter to draft Mason Graham top-5 is why the Browns are the Browns.
Nice call on CIN/Shemar Stewart.