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Mr. Bitter 362 Posts (453 )
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

Great mock. My only nitpick is Miami/Simpson at 2.51. I have to think that protecting Tua is far-and-away the top priority for the Dolphins. In your scenario, Bergeron would make sense to plug one of the holes at LG or RT.

You're right about Skoronski being a prospect that Douglas would have high on his draft board. Instant contributors will be targeted as we go all in on Rodgers next season. I hope Skoronski is still there at 1.13.

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The Champ 80 Posts (19 )
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

@Mr. Bitter Fair point on Bergeron/Miami.  As it relates to Rodgers and the Jets and the Packers, I've seen some rumors making the rounds that the Packers are extremely high on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and that the Rodgers trade is basically done.  Essentially, if JSN makes it to the Packers' scheduled pick at #13, the rumor is that the two teams would swap picks at #13 and #15 so that the Packers could take JSN, and then one of the 2nd Round picks will be heading to the Packers as has been widely speculated.  Or, I suppose, the Jets could technically take JSN and then the Packers would take whomever the Jets want at #15 and then the trade could get announced afterward, but you get the idea.  

Some other tidbits I've seen floating out there:

--Carter is not getting out of the top 10.  While I can't see Detroit, Seattle at 5 could happen, the Bears at 9 would be very likely to happen, and he wouldn't fall beyond Philly at 10.  

--Seeing some rumblings of Darnell Wright to the Bears at #9.  If Carter is gone and they want to go OT, he could get the call over Johnson or Skoronski or any of the others.  They really like their LT, and Wright might be seen as a great RT by them who is more ready to play than Johnson/Jones.

--Darnell Washington has a shot to go in the late 1st and in doing some dot connecting, Dallas met with him privately, and Dallas almost always meets its eventual 1st Round picks on an official 30 visit.  Notably, Dallas did NOT meet with Kincaid or Mayer.  Just something to file away for sure.  

--Daniel Jeremiah thinks it's better than 50/50 that Hooker ends up in the 1st Round.  

--Josh Norris is convinced that Emmanuel Forbes and Anton Harrison will be picked in the 1st Round.  

--There's been a media blitz of negative stuff on Stroud.  We heard about the alleged "hard to coach" stuff last week, though there was some pushback by locals on that.  But since then, it's come out that he ghosted the Manning Academy when he was supposed to appear, and also that he did terrible on the S2 test, which you can prepare for, of course.  Is he the second coming of Bo Callahan?  Ha, I kid, I kid.  

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The Champ 80 Posts (19 )
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide
@The Champ I misspoke when talking about the JSN theory, of course it is the Jets currently scheduled at #13, not the Packers.  But the basic jist of it would be that the two clubs would swap picks if JSN is there, as New England would be a threat to take him at 14.  
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Mr. Bitter 362 Posts (453 )
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

@The Champ 

So much to chew on right now. So many sources that I respect saying they're "hearing" that such-and-such player is definitely going in the 1st round, etc. Thing is, just because they're hearing something doesn't necessarily make it true. (See: Tony Pauline basically guaranteeing the Chargers would move up for Jordan Davis last year, and a thousand other examples.) I mean, if you total up the prospects rumored to go on Day One, it would be around 40 guys for 31 slots. Some of these experts are obviously going to have egg on their faces. We just have to keep level heads and decide which rumors pass the sniff test.

That GB/NYJ/Smith-Njigba rumor makes sense. Could explain why the over odds on JSN's 12.5 O/U have bloated a bit recently.

I'm not convinced CHI will go OT at 1.9. They seem to like Braxton Jones' potential at LT, and 1.9 seems rich for a pure RT, especially when that D-line needs a complete rebuild and Pace's background is with organizations that traditionally address O-line outside the 1st round and through free agency. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if CHI goes Tyree Wilson (if slipping) or Myles Murphy. (Murphy just put up Travon Walker-level numbers at his workout. He's going top 15.) Gonzalez and Witherspoon are potential value plays.

I honestly have no idea where Jalen Carter will land. I think the "guaranteed top 10" stuff is more masterful media manipulation by Drew Rosenhaus than anything else. Carter is still a bust you can see coming from a mile away and teams know it. if he goes top 10, my best guess is PHI at 1.10. Howie Roseman has a long leash in Philly and is playing with house money with that pick. He's the only GM in the top 10 that can afford a true swing and miss, IMO.

I still think Michael Mayer goes 1st round. Such a clean prospect. I'm guessing late 1st teams like DAL, BUF, and CIN quietly love that Mayer's stock is "falling".

I still think Stroud is a solid bet at 1.2. It could be a situation where ownership steps in and demands it. That fan base isn't having another season of Davis Mills. Even if the Texans trade down, it could easily be with a team like ATL moving up for Stroud.

It's worth noting that over the last 24 hours, Will Levis' odds of going #2 overall have dropped from +1000 to +250, ahead of Stroud (+350) and right there with Will Anderson.

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