Bijan. The closer we get to draft day, the more I'm convinced Bijan Robinson will - somehow, some way - go top 10. Just such a clean, talented prospect. I get the RB devaluation angle, but if you're a win-now team like DET, ATL, or PHI, an All-Pro RB that puts you over the top may be considered worth the investment even if he's not on the roster beyond his fifth-year option.
An underrated aspect to Robinson's value is his receiving prowess. I've seen a few mocks recently that force Smith-Njigba to ATL at 1.8 because the Falcons have patched up most of their obvious holes along the depth chart save for the need for an explosive slot weapon. I think there's an argument that if Bijan was scouted purely as a slot receiver, he would top that prospect list along along with RB.
I realize that Allgeier had a nice rookie year and Patterson is still hanging around, but c'mon. Patterson is 32 and "Why would ATL draft Bijan? Allgeier is just fine" sounds a lot like "Why would ATL draft Kyle Pitts? Hayden Hurst is just fine".
Patriots/Devin McCourty replacement. First off, I don't buy the "Jalen Mills at free safety" talk for a second. Like you, I've been tempted to slot Brian Branch at 1.14 because - as you suggested - he just seems like such a Belichikian prospect and clean replacement for McCourty. Versatile, aggressive and consistent in run support, the 'Bama/Saban connection...all the Patriots DB boxes seemed to be checked. Then I dug a bit deeper.
The Pats value versatility and solid run support when scouting DBs and don't seem to mind below-average height/length. However, while studying the testing results of DBs drafted by the Pats going back nearly 15 years, a trend emerged. The Pats definitely value the DB speed/quickness/explosion trinity of sub-4.55 forty/sub-7.00 three cone/36"+ vertical. Branch (4.58 forty/no three cone test/34.5"V) is below NE's DB athletic standard. Not to suggest there's "no way" NE will draft Branch, but I'd be surprised - especially as high as 1.14.
A prospect that has "Patriots DB" written all over him is Jartavius Martin. Check out Martin's draft profile compared to McCourty's 2010 profile:
McCourty
Pros: Deep safety/boundary/slot versatility. Aggressive/consistent in run support and at catch point. Plus ball skills. Senior leader. Special teams standout. Senior Bowl standout.
5-10/193
9" hand/32" arm
4.38 forty
6.70 three cone
1.53 ten yard split
36"V
10'6" broad jump
16 bench repst;
<p>Martin:>
Pros: Deep safety/boundary/slot versatility. Aggressive/consistent in run support and at catch point. Plus ball skills. Senior leader. Special teams standout. Senior Bowl standout.
5-11/194
9 5/8" hand/31 1/8" arm
4.46 forty
No 3 cone test
1.47 ten yard split
44" V
11'1" broad jump
15 bench reps
I'm willing to bet that Martin is higher on NE's board than any other team.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting Martin is an option at 1.14, but if the Pats do their "trade down a ways and draft an obscure tester/scheme fit" routine, Martin is a guy to watch out for.
Also, I'm with you and Charlie on Zay Flowers if the Pats stick and pick at 1.14. Too much smoke to ignore and an ideal fit.
@Mr. Bitter Bijan absolutely should go top-10. I don't think the Eagles will do it, but it fits Atlanta's M.O. under Fontenot (Kyle Pitts, Drake London).
If Will Anderson Jr. and Tyree Wilson are off the board in the top-5, I think Detroit should take him and its the best fit in the 1st round IMO. They need one more boundary corner to finish that group, but this is a deep corner class; someone like Deonte Banks makes sense at No. 18, or Emmanuel Forbes in a trade-down scenario. On Day 2, DJ Turner, Cam Smith, Tyrique Stevenson, Kelee Ringo or Darius Rush all make sense. Unless they are enamoured with Witherspoon and Gonzalez at No. 6, I'd take a generational prospect, running back or not.
I've retracted off mocking that in recent weeks as it's a pretty risky pick which could ruin my top-10, but hoping for some insight from Charlie as to whether Detroit have a favourite. I've heard Tyree Wilson is someone they like, but I think Tyree Wilson is 50/50 to go top-5 at this point.
I think Detroit will make a bold move on Draft Day. The NFC is there for the taking, and they aren't likely to be in blue chip range again any time soon.
The DET/Witherspoon chalk at 1.6 makes perfect sense from a need/culture fit standpoint, but I don't think it's going to happen. I love Witherspoon, but he was thoroughly mediocre until last season and has no elite physical traits. He's nothing close to a Sauce Gardner-type value, IMO.
I'm in the minority, but Joey Porter Jr. is my CB1. (Followed by Banks, Witherspoon, Gonzalez, and Turner.) Netting Porter or Banks at 1.17 is entirely possible and would be infinitely better value for DET than Witherspoon at 1.6, IMO.
Everyone seems convinced that if a team trades up to 1.3, it will be for Anthony Richardson. I'm not so sure. Richardson, for all his physical upside, is thoroughly inaccurate. That can't just be glossed over.
Assuming Young and Stroud go 1.1 and 1.2, I could see DET - armed with extra draft capital this year and next - trade up to 1.3 for Will Anderson. Anderson is the guy the Lions need. Arizona simply needs more picks to flesh out the depth chart, and at 1.6 they could have Tyree Wilson, Christian Gonzalez, Witherspoon, or (gulp) Jalen Carter.
On Tyree Wilson: I don't see it. Overaged Big12 defender who still hasn't tested predraft. Slow off the snap. No bend. I'm not buying the top 5 buzz. I'm guessing 6 to 12 range.
)
Top notch, as always.
Two notes:
Bijan. The closer we get to draft day, the more I'm convinced Bijan Robinson will - somehow, some way - go top 10. Just such a clean, talented prospect. I get the RB devaluation angle, but if you're a win-now team like DET, ATL, or PHI, an All-Pro RB that puts you over the top may be considered worth the investment even if he's not on the roster beyond his fifth-year option.
An underrated aspect to Robinson's value is his receiving prowess. I've seen a few mocks recently that force Smith-Njigba to ATL at 1.8 because the Falcons have patched up most of their obvious holes along the depth chart save for the need for an explosive slot weapon. I think there's an argument that if Bijan was scouted purely as a slot receiver, he would top that prospect list along along with RB.
I realize that Allgeier had a nice rookie year and Patterson is still hanging around, but c'mon. Patterson is 32 and "Why would ATL draft Bijan? Allgeier is just fine" sounds a lot like "Why would ATL draft Kyle Pitts? Hayden Hurst is just fine".
Patriots/Devin McCourty replacement. First off, I don't buy the "Jalen Mills at free safety" talk for a second. Like you, I've been tempted to slot Brian Branch at 1.14 because - as you suggested - he just seems like such a Belichikian prospect and clean replacement for McCourty. Versatile, aggressive and consistent in run support, the 'Bama/Saban connection...all the Patriots DB boxes seemed to be checked. Then I dug a bit deeper.
The Pats value versatility and solid run support when scouting DBs and don't seem to mind below-average height/length. However, while studying the testing results of DBs drafted by the Pats going back nearly 15 years, a trend emerged. The Pats definitely value the DB speed/quickness/explosion trinity of sub-4.55 forty/sub-7.00 three cone/36"+ vertical. Branch (4.58 forty/no three cone test/34.5"V) is below NE's DB athletic standard. Not to suggest there's "no way" NE will draft Branch, but I'd be surprised - especially as high as 1.14.
A prospect that has "Patriots DB" written all over him is Jartavius Martin. Check out Martin's draft profile compared to McCourty's 2010 profile:
McCourty
- Pros: Deep safety/boundary/slot versatility. Aggressive/consistent in run support and at catch point. Plus ball skills. Senior leader. Special teams standout. Senior Bowl standout.
- 5-10/193
- 9" hand/32" arm
- 4.38 forty
- 6.70 three cone
- 1.53 ten yard split
- 36"V
- 10'6" broad jump
- 16 bench reps
t;
&I'm willing to bet that Martin is higher on NE's board than any other team.