Not a Pats fan (just the opposite - Jets fan), but unless you anticipate NE addressing OT in free agency, I think you're underestimating that need in this mock.
Trent Brown was benched last year and is on thin ice. I think we could see NE trade up to the 8 to 10 range ahead of OT-needy TEN and NYJ for their pick of the OT litter.
Just out of curiosity - why do you think the value isn't there for a tackle at #14, but have Tyler Steen - who Bill O'Brien coached and raved about at Alabama - selected with the very next pick? Personally, I think Charlie and Walt are getting carried away with Steen and he's more of a Day 2 value, but if he does end up being a surprise 1st round pick, the Pats are one of the few teams I can see picking him, given their history of against-the-grain 1st round O-line picks and O'Brien's familiarity with Steen.
@Mr. Bitter I feel the same way about possibly trading up. Could see Skoronski in a more rush-focused offense with Stevenson if we don't add meaningful receivers. I think the OTs, especially after Skoronski and Paris Johnson, will fluctuate all over the place. I think you could get someone in the second round who is around the same skill as Steen, while getting more of an impact player in the first. A big plus for him though like you mentioned is he started at LT for Alabama.
I don't think the Pats will want to overdraft on offensive line like they did with Cole Strange. Strange could end up a great player, but is incredibly raw. He said he never played games with gloves on, but I noticed him wearing them towards the end of the season - it got cold and it's probably hard to block the defense with no hand protection/grip. I think O'Brien needs to gain some more clout (he's coached there before but left for a while) before the Pats give him a first round selection.
The Pats are hard to figure on draft day. We can say that they won't want to overdraft another O-lineman, but I honestly don't think they consider it a reach when they draft somebody like Cole Strange in the 1st because they've been making similarly off-script picks consistently and for a long time. (Going all the way back to Mankins.) Their draft board just seems more scheme-specific than other teams.
Yeah, the OT prospect rankings are up in the air right now. I think as many as 5 different OTs could be OT1 on team's draft boards depending on size thresholds, schematic fit, etc. Some teams may see Skoronski (T-Rex arms) strictly as a G, for instance. Hopefully the Combine will offer some clarity.
One thing I've noticed about NE when they acquire OTs: They like them massive. (Vollmer, Solder, Trent Brown, etc.) Isaiah Wynn was an outlier and hasn't worked out in NE, so I'm wondering if the Pats could be spooked by Skoronski's smallish frame and instead fall in love with a giant like Dawand Jones.
BTW, I'm totally with you on drafting DTs super high. If you're going to make a top 10 investment in a DT, they better have been crazy productive in college. Teams want to see more than just upside before burning a premium pick on a DT. That's why I'm not buying all the Jalen Carter #1 overall nonsense. History says he'll be lucky to go top 5.
Recent elite DT prospects that went top 10 and their final college season stats:
Derrick Brown 2020 #7 11.5 TFL/4 sacks
Quinnen Williams 2019 #3 19.5 TFL/8 sacks
Ed Oliver 2019 #9 22 TFL/ 5 sacks
Aaron Donald 2014 #13* 28.5 TFL/11 sacks (!!!)
Marcell Dareus 2011 #3 24 TFL/11.5 sacks
Ndamukong Suh 2010 #2 20,5 TFL/12 sacks
Gerald McCoy 2010 #3 15.5 TFL/6 sacks
* - Donald would have easily been top 10 if not for size concerns.
No DT without at least one college season of 10.5+ TFL has been drafted in the top 10 since the NCAA began keeping track of the stat around 2005.
Not a Pats fan (just the opposite - Jets fan), but unless you anticipate NE addressing OT in free agency, I think you're underestimating that need in this mock.
Trent Brown was benched last year and is on thin ice. I think we could see NE trade up to the 8 to 10 range ahead of OT-needy TEN and NYJ for their pick of the OT litter.
Just out of curiosity - why do you think the value isn't there for a tackle at #14, but have Tyler Steen - who Bill O'Brien coached and raved about at Alabama - selected with the very next pick? Personally, I think Charlie and Walt are getting carried away with Steen and he's more of a Day 2 value, but if he does end up being a surprise 1st round pick, the Pats are one of the few teams I can see picking him, given their history of against-the-grain 1st round O-line picks and O'Brien's familiarity with Steen.