That DAL/Graham Barton pick makes so much sense it hurts.
I get that the SEA/Mims pick is more about getting Mims in his proper value range and driving home the point that SEA needs to start making premium investments in the trenches. However, I have a hard time imagining Abe Lucas at guard. Such a high-cut, upright player. He's about the purest of RTs that I can think of. Still, his availability going forward seems to be a quiet concern in SEA, so Mims could be the pick in your scenario. Ultimately - like you - I anticipate Guyton and Mims will rise as the predraft process unfolds. I'm guessing neither will make it to SEA at 16.
The Seahawks are in an awkward spot given their needs: Smack dab in the middle of the 1st round - out of potential franchise QB range, and perhaps a little too high for a non-Latu defender. I suppose Fautanu would be a solid (if uninspiring) pick as a plug n play guard, but it just feels like SEA needs to think bigger. Perhaps a trade down to recoup a 2nd rounder, with the targets being Barton in the late 1st and a 2nd round swing on Penix/Nix?
@Mr. Bitter Seattle is tricky for the reasons you state. They need LB and S the most; this is amongst the worst linebacking classes I've ever seen, and although I still like him as a top-40 pick I've cooled on Kinchens a bit. I might even be optimistic at #23 (we'll see whether teams are bothered by his hot and cold 2023 season).
Funnily enough I considered Troy Fautanu but came down to Mims vs. Fautanu and went with Mims because of his upside. Fautanu seems a prime player to rise into the top-20 like Zion Johnson in 2021, so perhaps by the draft Fautanu at No. 16 wouldn't be considered a reach.
Yeah, the Seahawks were regularly gashed up the gut this season. Thing is, I think SEA fans may riot if they continue sinking disproportional resources into LB and S at the expense of the trenches. That philosophy obviously isn't working.
It's a miserable LB crop. Payton Wilson and Edgerrin Cooper are the only LB prospects I find intriguing, and Wilson's injury red flags make Round One unlikely.
It's a meh crop of defensive prospects in general. A decent selection of Day 2 DL and DB values, but I'm not seeing any surefire top 10 guys.
I like Turner, Latu and Newton, but I don't think Turner is the Will Anderson-tier prospect some suggest, am terrified of Latu's medical history/athletic testing, and anticipate Newton will get the Calijah Kancey treatment throughout the process. (Especially when Day 2 could offer discount versions of Newton like Michael Hall Jr. and Howard Cross.)
I think two darkhorses to be the first defender off the board are Bralen Trice and Cooper DeJean. I see similarities with young Justin Smith with Trice. Love him. He's going to rise. DeJean is an elite performer as well as an elite athletic tester, so - other than the stigma that shall not be mentioned - I'm not sure why we aren't seeing him regularly slotted in the 8 to 12 range as a plug n play CB.
Not a big Kinchens fan. Day 2 guy for me. Beau Brade could be a late riser. Versatile and should shine at the Combine. He's the only safety I see even sniffing the 1st round.
@Mr. Bitter I am a fan of Latu, but his medical could render him a top-10 or a late round pick; really hope its the former. I like Turner, too, think the EDGE class falls off a cliff then and don't think either are real blue-chip prospects.
In the next tier I have Verse, Trice, Braswell and Chop(falling) presently. I think Trice is a solid late 1st pick; wouldn't mind my 49ers taking him if the best OL prospects are gone. I have him 34th on my big board so he only just missed my 1st round mock. Healthy, I think he goes top-40.
A surprise I could could knock the door of the 1st round is Chris Braswell too. He's in the running I really like his skill-set and think he is a bit underrated because he's paired up with Dallas Turner. He's raw but not insanely so, and I he's probably got the highest upside of this class. The 8 sacks aren't a fluke; he had 49 pressures. Really like him, nearly mocked him late 1st.
DeJean will almost certainly go Round 1 because he can sort of do everything and is an incredible athlete. He's a better prospect than Brian Branch who should have gone 1st round in 2023. I think he could go as high as No. 13 if a QB isn't in play for Vegas
You're absolutely right about the top-heavy EDGE crop. After Turner/Latu/Verse/Chop/Braswell/Trice it's slim pickings. EDGE-needy teams that don't address the position during free agency will have to act quickly in the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if all six guys go in the 1st round.
It's a top-heavy draft in general. Feels like a serious drop-off in quality beyond early/mid 3rd round. Has me wondering if we'll see more trade action than usual.
I can appreciate the time you spent on this mock and the amount of detail in your write ups. Well thought out. Even the "out of the box" selections make sense.
Every year a team drafts someone much higher than what the media suggests. For example, I think a player like a Tyler Guyton could absolutely be picked high. He's similar to a Kolton Miller who was considered a reach at the time but he continued to grow and improve and is now considered one of the best at the position.
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That DAL/Graham Barton pick makes so much sense it hurts.
I get that the SEA/Mims pick is more about getting Mims in his proper value range and driving home the point that SEA needs to start making premium investments in the trenches. However, I have a hard time imagining Abe Lucas at guard. Such a high-cut, upright player. He's about the purest of RTs that I can think of. Still, his availability going forward seems to be a quiet concern in SEA, so Mims could be the pick in your scenario. Ultimately - like you - I anticipate Guyton and Mims will rise as the predraft process unfolds. I'm guessing neither will make it to SEA at 16.
The Seahawks are in an awkward spot given their needs: Smack dab in the middle of the 1st round - out of potential franchise QB range, and perhaps a little too high for a non-Latu defender. I suppose Fautanu would be a solid (if uninspiring) pick as a plug n play guard, but it just feels like SEA needs to think bigger. Perhaps a trade down to recoup a 2nd rounder, with the targets being Barton in the late 1st and a 2nd round swing on Penix/Nix?