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woo hoo 3 Posts (3 )
2 month(s) 13 day(s) ago - hide
The only chance the 49ers have to win is if they pound away with McCaffrey on the ground, otherwise the 49ers have little chance. That said, Shanahan has a growing track record of giving up on the run at inexplicable times, especially in the postseason. Combine that with the fact that nobody has been able to bring down Mahomes consistently all season (I don't see the 49ers being able to change that) and you have a recipe for another Chiefs win.
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FootballFish 3 Posts (1 )
2 month(s) 15 day(s) ago - hide
Not sure where Tony Romo got his information from but NFL Next Gen stats has Mahomes much better against man, NOT zone coverage. Mahomes had just 7 TDs and 7INTs versus zone coverage this year, and was also elite versus man but not zone in 2022. The fact that the 49ers play mostly zone favors the 49ers, not the Chiefs
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Young Harry 33 Posts (21 )
2 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide
Help! Looking for the best odds: first TD Taylor Swift

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Baird 9 Posts (2 )
2 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide

End of the season so might as well go big. Its always scary betting against Mahomes (especially in BIG games), but I like the match up edge the Ravens have. I dont think Thuney is huge blow because his backup is decent and KCs issue has been on the edges, but his departure along with Toney & Gay (he was supposed to spy Lamar) as well as Pacheco not being 100% helps Bal.

I bet on Fri @ -205 ML and -3.5 spread
20.5u to win 10u ML
2.4u to win 2u spread
Bal wins 26-18

I'm not confident in the Det/SF game as I can see Det keeping it close, winning or getting blown out. My gut says Det doesnt score more than 24. I mixed up teasers with Det +13 & SF -1 and put a little on Lions spread.

Det +7 (2u)
SF wins 30-24

Lastly, I mixed game props...
Purdy>1.5 pass TDs, McCaffrey<18.5 carries & Bal 1st to 20 points @ +365
.8 to win 2.92

GL to all - lets go Ravens!

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Mr. Bitter 259 Posts (497 )
2 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide

@Baird 

Good stuff. I'm with you on both games, only I think DET might win SU. On paper SF is the right side, but something feels off...like they're kinda in cruise control, while DET is playing with fire in their belly. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I'm scarred by the images of Dontayvion Wicks handling Chase Young as if he was an All-Pro tackle. Just a gut call: DET 31 SF 28

BAL will take care of business. It's their year. I think you're underrating the loss of Thuney. Not because he's absolutely irreplaceable, but because KC's only hope for a championship run was establishing their new downhill running/defense identity on the fly, meaning their O-line absolutely could not afford to be weakened beyond what it already was. Combine that with BAL having a potential Kelce-eraser in Kyle Hamilton, and KC should find it difficult to put up points.

Underrated angle: I love the Mahomes commercials. He could seriously have a post-football future as a comedian. However, that media saturation along with the Kelce/Swift stuff...I dunno, it just feels like KC is fattened up for the kill. Again, maybe I'm overthinking it, but have you seen Lamar Jackson's interviews lately? Dude is focused at a frightening, eye of the tiger level.

BAL 31 KC 20

GL and enjoy your Sunday 

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Nagurski 1 Posts (2 )
2 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide

Can’t help but wonder whether we’ll see the “good” Jared Goff or the “bad” one who can throw a game away all by himself?

Same goes for Jackson, who has a spotty record in post season, and can struggle without good support from his RBs.

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Demondlee1906@gmail.com 0 Posts (0)
2 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Underestimating chiefs defense and Mahomes/Reid championship pedigree. Chiefs will play this like a superbowl. All formations, all new plays. 24-20 Chiefs will get out of Baltimore with a scrappy hard fought victory. Chiefs defense will create a couple of timely turnovers. 
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Dixie Normus 1 Posts (0)
2 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide
Right on Walter...Ravens-Lions both to cover 
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scaredmoney 10 Posts (1 )
3 month(s) 0 day(s) ago - hide
Terrific analysis. The lions oline- are they banged up? And I don’t think Purdy will be off as much as last week, and after last year, I think he might be very hungry.
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scaredmoney 10 Posts (1 )
3 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

Conf final

Bal SF both will cover

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ZootAllures 0 Posts (2 )
3 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide
BUCS +6
BILLS -2.5
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Young Harry 33 Posts (21 )
3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide
We Dolphins fans here in Miami are disappointed, but proud of the team.  We still have a way to go, although injuries ruined us late in the season. I feel positive about 2024. Anyway, must go now to see if the driveway needs to be cleared of snow :)
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Mr. Bitter 259 Posts (497 )
3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

PIT 14 BUF 13

DAL 38 GB 24

LAR 30 DET 27

PHI 20 TB 17 

Happy hunting, fellas.

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Mr. Bitter 259 Posts (497 )
3 month(s) 10 day(s) ago - hide
C.J. Stroud already made his first playoff start in Week 18.
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Mr. Football 5 Posts (4 )
3 month(s) 10 day(s) ago - hide

The Cowboys will demolish the lowly Packers.  Expect Dak Attack to be in full butt kicking mode in front of the home crowd.  Dak will throw 4 td- CD will exploit the Cheeseheads secondary along with his posse, a- Cooks and Ferguson. Expect Pollard to get 100 yards on the Cheeseheads swiss cheese defense. 

The Cowboys defense will be like sharks in a frenzy on the Packers offense.  Bland a pick six to the house. Parsons atleast 3 sacks. Final score: Cowboys 47 Packers 17. How About dem Cowboys- Super Bowl bound !

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scaredmoney 10 Posts (1 )
3 month(s) 11 day(s) ago - hide
Last I heard the weather is the same for both teams 
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Stedydrizl 0 Posts (1 )
3 month(s) 13 day(s) ago - hide

Walter, Been following a long time now, really do enjoy your writings, comedy and even political views....But just about done with the site due to weak handicapping and information. I see many mistakes listed in weekly breakdowns. The biggest issue I have is why you or any handicapper puts so much faith in 20 year old data thinking it is a trend, kind of like .gov and their climate change projections.

Anyway, I agree the NFL has become much harder to handicap than 10-12 years ago but no edge on here anymore. Hope you and your family prosper, be well.

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amo.amadeo 0 Posts (1 )
3 month(s) 14 day(s) ago - hide

Walter, 

Been a fan for a while, love the in depth analysis and constant updates - tough year with some bad breaks.  Curious though where do you get the "sharps" info on which way they are always leaning?  And what is main difference between "pro money" and Sharps?

Thanks,

AA

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Baird 9 Posts (2 )
3 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

CHI @ GB - It looks like Johnson will be out and Gordon is questionable which hurts CHI's D. Sweat has been a great addition but hes up against a tough RT in Tom whos only allowed 2 sacks in 1,000+ snaps. Add in that Love may finally get all 3 receivers on the field, they're at home and Dillon is out so the better back (Jones) should get more touches/receptions.

I've been riding the Bears train for weeks now and while I really appreciate the $$$$ theyve brought, this is my stop I'm off.

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42yardline 19 Posts (0)
3 month(s) 17 day(s) ago - hide
Bills beat Miami by 4 TDs earlier this year. Dolphins have many key injuries now. It won't be 4 TDs this week, but Buffalo will have a convincing win.
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Karensman 10 Posts (2 )
3 month(s) 17 day(s) ago - hide
to Mr. Bitter ; How is TEN supposed to stay close ? D. Hopkins is a capable receiver and T. Spears has some speed as a change of pace RB. IF the Jaguars were healthy, I think it would be a different story. I'm not sure what to expect from Lawrence who is so beat up, they may actually be better with their backup [ can't believe I'm saying that ! ] . I also wonder if the Jaguar players are all in on making the playoffs. In all likelihood they will be one and done once they get in anyway. If they win, they would just be postponing some tee times another week. They have had plenty of chances to wrap up first place and they failed miserably. They are not playing well enough to be favored over any NFL team on the road. BTW, I don't agree with your assessment that Tannehill is damaged goods: this looks like a perfect situation for a veteran QB to show that he is NOT washed up and could have a future as an experienced backup on n NFL  team. He definitely won't have 'jitters' about starting in this game. I would actually like the Jaguars chances better if Levis was the QB for the Titans. Just my opinion and good luck with your bets.    
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Mr. Bitter 259 Posts (497 )
3 month(s) 17 day(s) ago - hide

@Karensman

Not sure why JAX wouldn't be all in on making the playoffs. They seemed pretty focused on their task last week. They tightened up around their backup QB for a clean, workmanlike W. That's what good teams do.

The Jags are a young team who have been dealing with a steady stream of key injuries this season; there were bound to be some inconsistencies. Still, the Pederson Jags usually beat the teams they're supposed to beat (especially in division), and key guys like Robinson, Campbell, Cisco, Kirk, etc, are being folded into the mix after absences. Assuming Lawrence is in one piece, I see no reason why JAX can't avenge that Week 14 road loss to CLE in the playoffs. (Sorry, but Flacco is going to turn into a pumpkin here real soon.)

Ryan Tannehill: 33.3 QBR, 64.7 CMP%, 2 TD/6 INT, sacked 11 times in his last two games. Damaged goods.

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