Walter : Good Luck to you this season, I've always enjoyed your information, articles, and selections and have been a fan of yours since I retired from the Race/Sports industry in Nevada over 12 years ago. This will be my last comment and please don't take this the wrong way : I have never paid money for a subscription or a tout service, I enjoy listening to other opinions but I always use my own judgement in regards to wagering. There are other free sites on the internet to find NFL information which is what I will have to resort to. It is somewhat unfathomable to me that someone would pay money to see your selections especially when you have been a loser 2 of the last 3 years.
Anyway let me give you my 2 selections for opening weekend; I like the Giants getting points at home vs. the Vikings [ more of fade of the Vikings who I anticipate will have a bad year ], and I like the Jags with the points [ 3 1/2 ? ] vs. the Dolphins. I will also be making a wager on the Jags to go over their win total, and to win their division, and even the AFC. BTW, if there is any team that will be minimally affected by the heat and humidity in Miami it would be another team from Florida. Thanks once again and good luck to you and everybody else on this site !
Agreed that CHi may be a bit overrated and TEN a bit underrated going into this season, and wouldn't be surprised if the Titans win SU. However, your reasoning for backing the Titans seems kinda flimsy.
The "Caleb Williams couldn't even lead USC to a top-five finish" is a very apples to oranges angle. (And yes, I would say that the Bears have top-end talent, especially at the skill positions. Don't think I've ever seen a rookie QB set up better for immediate success.)
Calling TEN's pass rush "swarming" is generous. Jeffrey Simmons is the only front-7 stud. Harold Landry is perfectly average and Arden Key is JAG. With a solid, experienced O-line and Williams' escapability, Williams should stay mostly clean. The Titans have upgraded the talent level on both sides of the ball, but with brand new schemes and so many new faces (including Latham and Sweat - raw rookie at key positions), we can't assume TEN will come storming out of the gates.
Also - I'm not ready to anoint L'Jarius Sneed as a bona fide CB1 just yet. I could easily be wrong, but I have to wonder if - like the army of late round/UFA CBs that broke the bank in free agency then flopped after thriving in Belichick's Patriots scheme - Sneed's success in KC was partly due to Spagnuolo's scheme, where Spags can seemingly insert any late round/UFA CB and make it work as long as they're long and rangy. I think Sneed could be regarded as another TEN free agency fool's gold overpay in a few years.
Lastly, I'm not sure why the "unknown" of Will Levis is kinda getting the benefit of the doubt while William's "unknown" isn't. Other than Levis' clean debut last season, he was bad; bad on the surface and what looks to be sustainably bad according to underlying metrics.
DAL/CLE
Again, no problem with the CLE pick. The Bland injury and depleted DAL O-line probably makes CLE the right side. (Assuming Deshaun Watson hasn't completely checked out...which is very possible and potentially catastrophic.) My only problem here is leaning on the "DAL can't stop the run" angle, as it may be considered outdated in a few weeks.
Unlike Dan Quinn, Mike Zimmer prioritizes stopping the run. In Quinn's big nickel scheme, the LBs were usually Damone Clark and a safety. With the scheme change and Bland injury, the Cowboys will be susceptible to good passing attacks for a while. But with the additions of Eric Kendricks and DeMarvion Overshown, and the reported offseason improvement of NT Mazi Smith, rushing yards figure to immediately be harder to come by vs. DAL.
LV/LAC
This reeks of a statement game for the Chargers after that 63-21 snot-bubble beating LV gave them to put the final nail in Brandon Staley's coffin. That has to be considered when handicapping this game. Also to be considered: Pierce/Harbaugh is a coaching mismatch until proven otherwise.>
The only chance the 49ers have to win is if they pound away with McCaffrey on the ground, otherwise the 49ers have little chance. That said, Shanahan has a growing track record of giving up on the run at inexplicable times, especially in the postseason. Combine that with the fact that nobody has been able to bring down Mahomes consistently all season (I don't see the 49ers being able to change that) and you have a recipe for another Chiefs win.
Not sure where Tony Romo got his information from but NFL Next Gen stats has Mahomes much better against man, NOT zone coverage. Mahomes had just 7 TDs and 7INTs versus zone coverage this year, and was also elite versus man but not zone in 2022. The fact that the 49ers play mostly zone favors the 49ers, not the Chiefs
End of the season so might as well go big. Its always scary betting against Mahomes (especially in BIG games), but I like the match up edge the Ravens have. I dont think Thuney is huge blow because his backup is decent and KCs issue has been on the edges, but his departure along with Toney & Gay (he was supposed to spy Lamar) as well as Pacheco not being 100% helps Bal.
I bet on Fri @ -205 ML and -3.5 spread 20.5u to win 10u ML 2.4u to win 2u spread Bal wins 26-18
I'm not confident in the Det/SF game as I can see Det keeping it close, winning or getting blown out. My gut says Det doesnt score more than 24. I mixed up teasers with Det +13 & SF -1 and put a little on Lions spread.
Det +7 (2u) SF wins 30-24
Lastly, I mixed game props... Purdy>1.5 pass TDs, McCaffrey<18.5 carries & Bal 1st to 20 points @ +365 .8 to win 2.92
Good stuff. I'm with you on both games, only I think DET might win SU. On paper SF is the right side, but something feels off...like they're kinda in cruise control, while DET is playing with fire in their belly. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I'm scarred by the images of Dontayvion Wicks handling Chase Young as if he was an All-Pro tackle. Just a gut call: DET 31 SF 28
BAL will take care of business. It's their year. I think you're underrating the loss of Thuney. Not because he's absolutely irreplaceable, but because KC's only hope for a championship run was establishing their new downhill running/defense identity on the fly, meaning their O-line absolutely could not afford to be weakened beyond what it already was. Combine that with BAL having a potential Kelce-eraser in Kyle Hamilton, and KC should find it difficult to put up points.
Underrated angle: I love the Mahomes commercials. He could seriously have a post-football future as a comedian. However, that media saturation along with the Kelce/Swift stuff...I dunno, it just feels like KC is fattened up for the kill. Again, maybe I'm overthinking it, but have you seen Lamar Jackson's interviews lately? Dude is focused at a frightening, eye of the tiger level.
Underestimating chiefs defense and Mahomes/Reid championship pedigree. Chiefs will play this like a superbowl. All formations, all new plays. 24-20 Chiefs will get out of Baltimore with a scrappy hard fought victory. Chiefs defense will create a couple of timely turnovers.
Terrific analysis. The lions oline- are they banged up? And I don’t think Purdy will be off as much as last week, and after last year, I think he might be very hungry.
We Dolphins fans here in Miami are disappointed, but proud of the team. We still have a way to go, although injuries ruined us late in the season. I feel positive about 2024. Anyway, must go now to see if the driveway needs to be cleared of snow :)
The Cowboys will demolish the lowly Packers. Expect Dak Attack to be in full butt kicking mode in front of the home crowd. Dak will throw 4 td- CD will exploit the Cheeseheads secondary along with his posse, a- Cooks and Ferguson. Expect Pollard to get 100 yards on the Cheeseheads swiss cheese defense.
The Cowboys defense will be like sharks in a frenzy on the Packers offense. Bland a pick six to the house. Parsons atleast 3 sacks. Final score: Cowboys 47 Packers 17. How About dem Cowboys- Super Bowl bound !
Walter, Been following a long time now, really do enjoy your writings, comedy and even political views....But just about done with the site due to weak handicapping and information. I see many mistakes listed in weekly breakdowns. The biggest issue I have is why you or any handicapper puts so much faith in 20 year old data thinking it is a trend, kind of like .gov and their climate change projections.
Anyway, I agree the NFL has become much harder to handicap than 10-12 years ago but no edge on here anymore. Hope you and your family prosper, be well.
Been a fan for a while, love the in depth analysis and constant updates - tough year with some bad breaks. Curious though where do you get the "sharps" info on which way they are always leaning? And what is main difference between "pro money" and Sharps?
Player props for tomorrow
hardman over 9.5 yards
Likely over 15.5 yards
Carson Steel anytime TD