PIT was the right side. It was a bad beat. BAL's win had nothing to do with being at home, being more talented at every position, being better-coached or having a historically brutalizing ground game that had PIT LBs and DBs literally running away from contact and crushed what remained of PIT's spirit before halftime.
If you knew anything about football, you'd know that the rules state that if you go for it on 4th-down, you get to switch QBs with the opposing team. If PIT would have gone for it on 4th-down at their own 29-yard line in the 2nd quarter instead of stupidly punting it away, Lamar Jackson would have become PIT's QB, and the defense would have suddenly been able to stop Derrick Henry from running at will. So you see, it's not that BAL was the better team - the Steelers just screwed themselves with that decision.
The Jenna Jameson Effect also came into play in this game. I wouldn't Google it at work, but let's just say it has something to do with teams being more comfortable on top than behind. You see, PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team, so it's not that BAL was better than PIT, it's just that the Ravens wouldn't stop scoring points and let PIT get in their comfort zone. There was no way to see this coming, except for the facts that PIT had scored zero 1st-quarter points in their last 5 playoff games and BAL is the much, much better team. But I would like to think it had more to do with my bad luck and that God hates me. Also, I had the flu and was tired from staying up with the kids.
You're probably stupid enough to think the overrated Ravens and their practice squad secondary have any chance vs. the Bills next week. Sure, BAL ran for 271 yards and beat BUF 35-10 earlier in the season, but Jupiter wasn't aligned with Mars so DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver were distracted.
I dunno - I think it's more playfully gloating than bitter.
I've also been waiting a long time for the opportunity to shoehorn my favorite Sopranos line into a comment. Had to go for it.
I'm looking forward to his Week 20 picks to see how far off my parody is. I predict there will be suggestion that the 4th-down play would have somehow made a difference, how BAL is overrated and how bad their secondary is.
I also predict BAL will beat BUF. The Ravens are perfectly designed to win on the road in the playoffs.
It's all in good fun. Even the best prognosticators are lucky to turn a profit ATS. Walt has put his thoughts and predictions on every game out there for like two decades, knowing there will be whiffs and ensuing ridicule. That takes balls. What really irritates me are the pile-jumpers that never engage beforehand but are always there to call out when someone is wrong after the fact. Like, if you can do better then let's hear it, Jimmy the Greek.
@Mr. Bitter "Jenna Jameson Effect... more comfortable on top than behind. PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team". - comedy genius right there. Thanks for the laugh
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens. George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury. He might be still feeling the effects. Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver. Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now. I'll be betting on them big.
You must be crazy. Pickens is a clutch late-season and playoffs performer. I mean, have you already forgotten his monster 11 TGT/5 REC/50 YD/0 TD/1 LOST FMB performance in PIT's 31-17 loss to BUF in last season's WC?
Even though I agree the Ravens are the favorites, the Steelers might be playing for Tomlin's job. Even though he's clearly a mediocre coach he's still loved by the players, particularly the veterans on that team. That might catch the Ravens off guard.
I think Tomlin is a very good coach. He just doesn't have the horses to hang with BAL, regardless of how much his players may like him. These are two teams going in opposite directions.
No defense can stop the BAL offense right now - Flowers or no Flowers. The '24 BAL offense is 2nd-best EPA all-time behind only the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. BAL is 1st in EPA/pass and EPA/rush, while the defense has been 1st in EPA/pass and #1 in total EPA from weeks 11-18. The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL by every metric, and what few early-season weaknesses they had are now strengths.
Tomlin squeezed what he could from Russell Wilson, but we all kinda knew reality would set in as far as that goes. I doubt Wilson will just be able to turn that midseason form back on against a focused BAL team that is peaking in all three phases. Pat Freiermuth isn't enough. There's a reason Tomlin is hinting at getting Justin Fields more involved in this game. The Wilson magic has run it's course and isn't returning.
Pickens is petulant and unreliable. We're talking about a WR1 with more career unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and fumbles than TDs. I seriously think he's more likely to get frustrated and disqualified than get loose in this matchup. The BAL secondary has been throwing blankets on WR1s much better than Pickens since Week 11.
John Harbaugh teams are rarely caught off guard, and I can't see that happening in this spot. Not with the way last season ended vs. KC. The Steelers are likely walking into a buzzsaw, and Vegas knows it.
@Mr. Bitter George Pickens has been dealing with a hamstring injury since December 6th. Week 14 = DNP; Week 15 = DNP; Week 16 = DNP; Week 17 = 7 Targets, 3 Rec., 50 Yds.; Week 18 = 6 Targets, 1 Rec., 0 Yds. Last year's WC game was a long time ago and isn't really relevant to this season. Yeah, I'm the crazy one.
@Mr. Bitter No worries. I was just busting your balls back. I agree with you most of the time. However, with the Steelers losing 4 consecutive games and the Ravens winning 4 straight games, I just don't see an upset. Especially playing @ BAL.
LAC -2.5 With Denzel Perryman's status still up in the air, I'll assume that both teams will be able to establish serviceable ground games and trade some early-game body blows, so the key questions here are which QB will face more pressure and which defense will be able to contain the opposing offense's best target as the game unfolds. I give the Chargers the advantage at both.
HOU's defensive scheme is predicated on consistent edge pressure from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The Chargers are equipt like no other AFC playoff team to contain them with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Conversely, Bosa and Mack will be taking turns on outmatched HOU RT Blake Fisher.
With a relatively clean pocket, Herbert will chisel away at the HOU defense with Ladd McConkey. Derek Stingley's shadow duties begin and end along the boundary, so McConkey will very likely see slot coverage from some combination of Myles Bryant, Jeff Okudah and Eric Murray. This just screams 11/120/2 for McConkey. On the flip side, the Chargers will be able to focus completely on containing Nico Collins, and should be successful, just as that historically bad BAL secondary was in Week 17. HOU's only other viable target is Dalton Schultz, and he has flat-out sucked all season. I don't see why he would stop sucking now, especially matched up against two of the NFL's highest-graded TE-erasers in Daiyan Henley and Derwin James.
I'm fairly confident the Chargers TCB (especially if Perryman plays), but since this is LA's first playoff appearance under a new regime (often a bad spot ATS, especially as a road favorite), I'll be laying off this game.
BAL -9.5 Rashod Bateman fully breaks out with 8/120/1, George Pickens melts down, and the Ravens beat the piss out of the Steelers. I'm betting every dime in the bank and a pinkie finger without hesitation. For more details, scroll down.
No mention of rookie RG Mason McCormick's broken hand?
McCormick isn't Chris Lindstrom or anything, but he's been a godsend through the Fautanu, Daniels and Seaumalo injuries. The PIT O-line is mediocre, with fragile chemistry and crappy depth. They absolutely cannot lose another starter right now.
PIT beat writers seem confident McCormick will be OUT. They're saying the surprise release of WR Scotty Miller yesterday was almost certainly to activate OT Calvin Anderson to replace the depth lost with Spencer Anderson moving in at RG for McCormick. Anderson was horrid in his three games before being benched earlier this season.
The last 17 double-digit playoff home favorites are 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS. They average 33.5 PPG.
Which WR led the NFL with a 77.3% separation rate and has 4 TDs in his last 4 games? Rashod Bateman. Which secondary allows the highest separation rate, the most receiving yards and 7th-most TDs p/game to outside WRs? The Pittsburgh secondary.
Which "washed" TE has a TD in six straight games and has a league-leading average of 2.14 YPRR against single-high coverage? Mark Andrews. Which secondary uses single-high coverage at the highest rate? The Pittsburgh secondary.
Isaiah Likely averages 1.77 YPRR against single-high coverage and has already went for 7/104/1 vs. PIT this season. Top-graded 3rd-down back Justice Hill and Nelson Agholor are back from injury this week. Lamar Jackson is #1 in QB EPA. Derrick Henry is #1 in RB EPA. The BAL O-line is ranked #1 in run and pass blocking, and #2 in Win Block % (DEN #1).
But no Zay Flowers for a week. How will the Ravens possibly score??
The Rams have a number of things in their favor. McVay has developed a rep as a strong playoff performer as he's 7-4 and been to two SBs. The Rams pass rush matches up perfectly with the Vikings weaknesses on their OL and Darnold struggling under pressure. Also, even though LA is not known as a great fanbase, the Rams could be motivated to lift the area's spirits due to the fires.
More LAR motivation: McVay has reportedly put printed screen shots in the Rams locker room of Dan Campbell telling Kevin O'Connell "I'll see you in two weeks".
Since week 3 of the regular season this trend for me has not changed: Pars...No Bueno. Teasers....Muy Bueno. So with that, for tomorrow...Two team 7 pointer with: Houston +10, Ravens -2.5, risking 1 unit (for less.) GLTA tomorrow!!
"Pickens over 55.5 receiving yards...Pickens will bounce back in an easymatchup"
This feels familiar...
From Week 17 picks:
"I believe the Ravens are an overrated team because of their poor pass defense, and that poor pass defense could allow the Texans to achieve a back-door cover if needed...Nico Collins over 92.5 receiving yards. Collins is a beast who will be force fed against Baltimore'spoorsecondary"
Nico Collins was the most expensive player on your DFS contest slate Week 17, which was understandable since he was going up against such an awfulsecondary. It's not like he was going up against a pass defense that features two All-Pros and has been rated first in the NFL since Week 11 or something.
"Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore may be the team missing it's No. 1 receiver"
In your analysis of the PIT/BAL matchup, this is the only sentence where I thought, "fair enough". Every other angle is either 7 weeks outdated or the result of getting lost in the labyrinth of that Group A/Group B thought experiment.
I believe in being thorough, so I don't find the Group A/Group B tangents as ridiculous as some commenters, but when you start saying stuff like "PIT could have kept it closer if Russell Wilson hadn't fumbled near the GL, thrown that pick-6, etc", you're officially in "can't see the forest for the trees" territory.
Lost in your analysis are the simple facts that Wilson is regressing badly and PIT is a team in collapse. Not sure how this is being missed, as late-season lulls and quick playoff exits are nothing new for the Tomlin Steelers. Meanwhile, the Ravens - a team built for January football like no other - is peaking in all three phases at just the right time, as John Harbaugh teams often do.
"Pickens will be available this time, which is huge because it allows the Steelers to exploit Baltimore's biggest weakness, which is the secondary"
I have tried to get through to Private Pyle, but I have failed.
Me and some other commenters have tried to correct you on your "Ravens awful secondary" angle, but that outdated narrative just continues to roll along for some reason, so I'll just leave some stuff here:
Since Week 11 - when Marlon Humphrey returned to health and took over the roaming slot CB role from Kyle Hamilton, with Hamilton replacing the completely washed Marcus Williams at FS, and Ar'Darius Washington taking on the full-time SS role - the Ravens have allowed the league's fewest points and fewest net yards p/game.
Since Week 11, the BAL secondary has allowed an NFL-low passer rating of 75.5 and NFL-low EPA p/dropback.
Since Week 11, BAL's secondary is PFF's highest-graded. Humphrey is the highest graded CB, and Hamilton the 2nd-highest graded S. Both are Pro-Bowlers and All-Pro considerations.
Since Week 11, Wiggins is the 2nd-highest graded rookie CB. He's steadily improved with increasing PT, blossoming from an early-season rotational liability into a 92% snap count corner that blankets Malik Nabers and is a pick-6 threat QBs are learning to avoid.
Since Week 11, Brandon Stephens (the only member of the secondary that can even be considered a "weakness") has been targeted the 5th-most among NFL CBs, and he's held up admirably. His 67.7% catch rate allowed is better than more heralded CBs like Pat Surtain and Jalen Ramsey.
You'll argue that BAL's defensive improvement has come against bad teams, but HOU - a team that you are currently suggesting could upset the Chargers and make an '08 Cardinals-type SB run - was just held to zero points by the BAL defense.
But "Pickens will be available this time".
Yeah, and?
Like most things in PIT right now, the Wilson-to-Pickens connection is clearly broken. Pickens hasn't had more than 4 catches or 74 yards in a game since mid-November, and is coming off a miserable goose egg performance. Most importantly: Pickens is the kind of player that - when the going gets tough - is more likely to drop two passes, have a meltdown and get ejected than step up with a huge performance. It's who he is. Is Pickens really the guy you want as a foundational angle to your Pick of The Month?
"The Steelers should be better against the run than that. They'll do a better job of limiting Henry"
Are you sure about that?
PIT gave up 220 rushing yards to BAL two weeks ago. What's changed? Other than Mike Tomlin now hinting at getting Justin Fields in there to try to get something going. (Which would likely just mean even more PIT TOs and BAL clock-killing ground dominance.)
The facts are that PIT has been leaky against the run recently and are going up against a historically dominant BAL rushing attack that has routinely gashed top-10 run defenses this season (271 yards vs. BUF, 249 vs. TB with Vea, 166 vs. PHI, etc).
BAL doesn't really have a weakness right now. Everything is falling into place at the right time. I mean, even Justin Tucker, who missed 8 FGs and 2 XPs before BAL's bye week, hasn't missed a kick since.
Walt all year you have bet against the Broncos and all year you have lost betting against them and it won't change now Broncos cover the spread and maybe they even beat Buffalo.Good luck your gonna need it.
Another final Sunday of the regular season. As with tradition, I've already donned the black armband and had a moment of silence. The buffalo wings and chili fries are en route.
Here's what I got on early games:
ATL -7.5 NO BET I was leaning CAR here, as the Panthers have shown periodic spunk under Canales, and the possibility of a blowout in TB could render ATL deflated by the late-3rd quarter. Then I saw CAR's injury report.
With Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn ruled OUT, ATL could easily name their score against CAR's practice squad D. With no Hubbard and injuries on the right side of the O-line, peppering Thielen with a million targets probably won't be enough to keep up. Still, I'm not touching this one.
DAL +7 LIGHT Was gonna pass here, then the line moved from 4.5 to 7.
Weird stuff happens in this rivalry. Much more importantly, I think WAS is overrated. Have for a while. Hail Marys...Hurts going down early...WAS has been very lucky and are a deceiving 11-5, IMO.
WAS has nothing but vague seeding to play for, and avoiding PHI may (wrongly) be of little concern having just defeated them. Parsons vs. that banged-up O-line...no Lattimore (ever?)...I wouldn't be shocked if DAL wins SU.
CHI +10NOBET As with WAS, I think seeding motivation will be minimal - at best - for GB. On the road and with zero pressure in a meaningless game, my hunch is we finally see Caleb Williams and those WRs do enough damage for the backdoor cover. However, the CHI run defense is such crap that GB's backup RBs could simply control the game start-to-finish. The "but those CHI WRs!/backdoor" logic has burned me all year, so I'm laying off.
JAX +3.5 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER I was sniffing around an IND fade until Josh Hines-Allen was ruled OUT. The IND defense has totally packed it in. I mean, Drew Lock?? That sin is unforgivable.
Brian Thomas Jr. - motivated by that Pro Bowl snub - could go nuclear on a rusty JuJu Brents. Still, those angles aren't enough for an ATS wager on a Doug Pederson team.
BUF -3.5 LIGHT A scroll of angles favor BUF.
Mayo is a dead man walking in NE. The Pats - looking to finally sever all ties with the Belichick era - will fire him tomorrow, and I'm not even sure if his players like him enough to send him out on a positive note.
NE currently will be able to auction of the 1st pick in the draft for a boatload of much-needed rebuilding ammo, or simply pick a superstar in Travis Hunter. This has to be baked in.
Many of BUF's backups are better than the starters the Pats are currently trotting out. A few of those backups (Von Miller, Dawson Knox) will be motivated by hefty contract incentives.
Ray Davis smash spot. 100% guaranteed.
PHI -2 NO BET Same deal here as BUF/NE. PHI's backup O-line and secondary may be better than NYG's current starters, and guys like Calcaterra, Ojomo, etc, could start for NY.
From what I've seen of Tanner McKee in preseason action, I would take him over Lock if I was building a team.
Still, no bet. Because Malik Nabers. Nabers only needs targets to kill
any bet on PHI here, and - motivated by his race with Bowers for those rookie receiving records - he's undoubtedly going to get them.
NO +14NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER Pure gut here. Every ounce of pressure is on TB. Given their current RB and interior O-line situation, NO won't even attempt to run vs. Vea and crew. However, I don't trust that banged-up TB secondary - even against Rattler, MV-S, Moreau, etc. - to prevent a backdoor.
TEN -1.5 NO BET Obvious 1st half/2nd half appeal here, but also obvious Will Levis, so I'll pass.
The Titans have already defeated HOU at full health back in November, and HOU honestly hasn't been very good since then. With Tony Pollard playing and motivated by nearly $500,000 in very attainable bonuses, TEN feels like the right side.
SF +4.5 HEAVY I expect Kyler Murray to put up a nice stat line. He will need to run more with all the RB injuries, and earns $750,000 in vidja scratch with 50 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. Also - he will be playing from behind. I've done well fading the overrated Cardinals during the 2nd half of the season and won't stop now.
Josh Dobbs can be an efficient PG when the task isn't too large. The ARI defense qualifies. I expect nice games from Guerendo and one of Pearsall/Jennings in a comfortable SF win.
KC +11 NO BET I worry a bit about how Nix and a young DEN team will respond in a must-win spot, especially after that draining OT loss to CIN. The Broncos still feel like a "next year" team to me.
LAR +7.5 NO BET I know that Geno Smith stands to pocket $6 million with 185 passing yards, a 69.7 completion rate and a win, but I just have a hunch that Garoppolo, Corum and Atwell keep this within 7. Sean McVay likes this type of challenge.
LAC -7 NO BET All logic says the Chargers are the right side, but I'm fearful enough of a Bowers eruption to lay off.
MIA +1.5 LIGHT Morgan Moses is OUT, while Terron Armstead is playing. Chop Robinson is cleared for takeoff.
The Jets are directionless. MIA has motivation and I'm getting points.
CLE/BAL - I teased medium on BAL -12.5, but backed off when it shot to 20. I'm liking the idea of Zappe starting and think he, backup TE & backup RBs will give 100%. CLE's WR crew and D? Not so sure. BAL wins easy but I think we see them back off in the 4th and rest all big names. I love BAL -12.5 teasers, but I'm liking the idea of a backdoor and will add small CLE +26 hoping they can score in mid-teens and BAL stops in the 30s. *Looking for props on CLE WR Michael Woods II. I'm guessing he & Zappe practice together all the time.
CIN/PIT - I could write for/against both sides, but after the DEN game last week I'm liking PIT more at home to try for #5 vs HOU. Long story short, I hit different teasers on everything except the under. I mostly teased PIT 7.5-9 (plus RB props), added CIN +4-4.5 and small on the OVER. I would have went bigger on the over, but temp & kicking FG in PIT is worrisome.
I'm going through Sunday's games and will post more. GL in the final week!
"plus RB props"... I failed to mention I went bigger on Warren than Harris. Warren 21+ rush (heavy tag, but happily paid) & +31, then splurged for 61+ at over 2-to-1. I hit Harris and rec props but wanted to point out Warren. GL
I gave up a while ago on plays of any kind with Harris/Warren. PIT's insistence on feeding Harris so he can not break tackles and plod his way to 3 YPC is baffling.
Also, PIT needs to find a chump team to take Pickens off their hands this offseason. Ultra-talented, but the dude is a poisonous moron.
They're insisting Rodgers will start. The dude has this organization held hostage. I have to think the leash will be short though.
O-line injuries could be key here. Looks like MIA could be without Armstead and Lamm (IR today). However, DNPs for Moses and AV-T is just as concerning for the Jets. If they can't go, Chop Robinson could one-man wreck the right side of the NYJ O-line.
I'm interested to know the success rate for teams that plan to rotate QBs. Two such scenarios this week (CLE - DR-T/Zappe, TEN - Levis/Rudolph). I can't imagine the record is good - rotating QBs is a clear message to the rest of the team that the organization is directionless.
Speaking of directionless...I wouldn't touch IND right now. There's frustration in that locker room and I fear guys are checking out. The lack of tackling effort vs the Giants was jaw-dropping. Defenders were flat-out jogging during those Nabers TDs.
