HOU @ KC - dont like it, too many variables. I'd feel like a fool trying to cap this game.
Looks like Thuney moved to LT & Caliendo is at guard so HUNTER & ANDERSON dont destroy Mahomes. Good move KC
Edge win rate rankings - 1. Hunter 6. Anderson Jr KC O-line strength? Interior
Question: do refs give RT Taylor extra step or call false starts? Prob the biggest deal in this game
I'm guessing we see a bunch of Pacheco, misdirection & quick passes = long drawn out drives &/or stalled drives with long field. Hollywood is back, but how much does he really play? Prob just getting ready for postseason. KC is @PIT + @DEN next so they should show up in their FINAL home game. IDK - spags, Jones+Karlaftis & McDuffie should limit HOU's O, but KC isnt exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Chenal's status is big vs Mixon.
Spread has been all over the place. I got small on UNDER.
PIT vs BAL - Steelers magic is done. PIT continues to trend down even though past stats scream otherwise in this game. I've only teased BAL 0 to -0.5 so far.
Side note - PIT's schedule reminds me of CHI (5 div games in 6 weeks) when they battled hard for a big DIV stretch, had an off game and lost big only to come back and fail. Is CHI @ MIN a precursor to this game?
@Baird & Mr. Bitter : It's been a struggle for me to find a matchup I like [ power underdog ] the last few weeks and this week is no exception. My number #1 play this week sounds like your write up: I like the KC/Houston game Under 42. No need for any more explanation - you covered the reasons for the under quite well. I'm also going with the Jets-Rams game OVER 46. After watching A. Rodgers the last 2 weeks it looks like they are committed to the quick passing game to keep ARod upright and he has 2 great receivers in G. Wilson & D. Adams. Just like the Rams have 2 great receivers Kupp & Nakua. Both teams have solid RB's - B. Hall vs. K.Williams. Neither team's defense stands out. I like to play 3 teams [ 2 team RR parlays ] and on my 3rd pick I took a flyer on SF - Miami Over 45. Being a Bears fan I refuse to bet the Bears but I wouldn't be shocked if they give the Lions trouble. The Lions injuries are really adding up and I think the loss of D. Montgomery is Huge for the Lions. First game at home for the Bears after Sh-tcanning Eberflus, if they are going to put forth some effort it will come this week. Of course, they could sleepwalk through another non-effort also.
The Herbert injury and LA's lack of any real HFA scare me, but this is exactly the type of game recent Chargers editions would lose and Harbaugh was hired to win.
The last time DEN played a team with a decent QB was back on Nov. 10 on the road against Mahomes and the Chiefs. DEN lost that game 16-14, and I think we may see a similarly close game tonight.
Neither team can run. Courtland Sutton should get his numbers, but he is DEN's only real weapon. Tarheeb Still has stepped up, so the Hart/Molden injuries aren't terrifying. McConkey could have a big game as he avoids boundary-anchored Surtain, and Hayden Hurst might make an impact fresh off the IR.
Walter when are you going to learn never bet against my team the Broncos your just going to lose! Your hate for Denver is overwhelming they are just going to get better and better Bo is going to be great get over it.
You're seriously overthinking the Rams/motivation angle.
"If the Rams win this game and the next one....provided SEA beats MIN, which is very possible...I don't know if the Rams will know this..."
MIN beating SEA is also very possible, and I'm sure the Rams are aware that they'll be alone in first place if that happens and they TCB vs. the Jets.
The Jets have done well the past two weeks because Mike McDaniel and Doug Pederson happen to be two of the few HCs that don't have a pronounced advantage over Jeff Ulbrich and company. Sean McVay won't let the Rams walk into an ambush.
The Texans can get to the #3 three with three wins and PIT loses to KC and BAL. Of course, that puts them in the BUF bracket which may not be as desirable as KC but they do have a bit to play for this weekend.
The Detroit Lions will continue their string of bad luck until they do the right thing and wear the silver pants.
Not buying Aidan Hutchinson returning in time for the Super Bowl. No way. That leg was shattered and wrapped around like the snake around the tree in a Garden of Eden painting.
That Pat Surtain injury looms large. The Broncos are going to blow this, aren't they?
When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.
The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.
On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.
Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.
@Mr. Bitter - great info right there! Crazy FG game was odd. Now I'm hoping LAR can win the div & make a playoff run. The last second FG killed my middle, but most of my $ was on Rams so all good.
I want to love TEN this week but Pollards D-D-L is sketchy. Brown, Rankins & the LB crew are out (CIN is starting an undrafted LB so Chig & Pollard could do well). I'm backing off a little awaiting Pollard news.
My biggest tease is WAS -1 and next is BAL -8.5. I cant imagine the Saints kill me like they did vs CLE, but any given Sunday. GL
I started the week on the right foot with small plays on the Rams and the UNDER. (Weather, sketchy SF offense without Trent Williams.) Not sure why so many were on the Niners in that spot - the Rams and Niners are plainly going in opposite directions.
Been mostly fading SF and ARI for a while now. Been thinking for a few months that the NFC West would come down to LAR and SEA.
Don't have a feel for CIN/TEN. Shootout potential if Pollard plays, but rain/wind might be factors. Calvin Ridley vs. Josh Newton screams mismatch, but that's assuming Levis doesn't lay an egg. He's overdue.
No reason why BAL won't give the Giants a snot-bubble beating.
My gut says the Saints give WAS a game. I'm worried WAS's bye week may have derailed that little bit of momentum they got back after dropping three straight. Then again, it also allowed Daniels more time to heal up.
Kamara and Kendre Miller should be able to bit off chunks behind Erik McCoy and keep the game low-scoring and tight. Daron Payne is QUESTIONABLE and Jer'Zhan Newton is putrid vs. the run.
I also worry that the effectiveness of the Kingsbury scheme will continue it's annual pattern of late-season fades.
For what it's worth, I think the Rams win out and take the NFC West. It all points to that SEA/LAR Week 18 game, which I think the Rams win (assuming they stay healthy). McVay kinda owns the Seahawks. I like SEA, but they're inconsistent and I gotta go with a dialed-in Stafford over Geno in a for-all-the-marbles game.
I like the vibe the Rams have going right now. They're balanced and efficient. I was worried that their young defensive front seven might fade, but then it occurred to me that Verse, Fiske, Turner, Young are grown men. Very smart of Snead/McVay to target mature, experienced prospects in the draft during their on-the-fly defensive rebuild.
Side notes: Turner is a stud. Elite interior pressure metrics. His matchup vs. the SF interior D-line (good zone run-blockers, bad in pass pro) was another big reason I liked the Rams over SF.
Kinda liking that All-Kam safety duo you got going. Kinchens was a steal.
@Mr. Bitter Your take on WAS/NO may be right. Saints O-line is healthy and could grind out a close game. Kool-aid may shadow McLaurin & Ekeler is out so it could easily be a grinder game. As long as WAS wins I'm good.
I also like... KC/CLE under Phi +0.5 Pacheco > props Added more to Justice Hill > 12.5 rush
This seems like a gift. Could easily be the type of game script where Henry and Hill feast for 3 quarters and even Keaton Mitchell gets in there in the 4th quarter and gets 15 yards and a TD.
I have to disagree with Walter on his prediction of BUF 27, DET 24. The Bills are playing back-to-back road games against playoff teams while the Lions are home both games. Buffalo is weaker on D in every category on most defensive categories (Total D Run Yds. Allowed, Total TDs Allowed, 3rd Down Pct. Allowed and Red Zone D Allowed. The Bills are coming off a hard-fought game w/the LA Rams that they lost while the Lions played on TNF so have an added 3 extra days of rest and time for a better game plan. Yet he picked the SF 49ers to win 31 - 24 over the LA Rams for that very reason.
My only beef with this analysis is the defensive stats angle. DET's defensive stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt now that their front seven has been decimated by injury. I mean, Glenn's scheming is top-notch, but when you're down to starting guys like Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O'Connor, Jonah Williams, Ezekial Turner...that's gotta catch up to you.
@Mr. Bitter - Hey, they beat CHI by 3, HOU by 3 and GB by 3 (I'm not counting that fluke TD). They did destroy the Colts, Jags & Titans so... watch out BUF. I went small on BUF +7.5 & 8
AZ @ CAR (WK16)- Walt, I hope you're right on ARI>NE. Would love to see AZ get a big dome win. Dont care about DAL @ CAR (small tease on CAR), but would love to go big next week w/ AZ outdoors, season lost, on the East coast vs a stout O-line. Love CAR next week.
TEN - Walt's write-up is spot on; love TEN +11 this week. Made $$$ teasing Dal last week and will keep it going. This is assuming Sweat, Awuzie & Boyd (revenge) are a "GO". So mad NFL flexed off CLE vs CIN TNF - would have been perfect.
Titan's D-line vs CIN O-line is scary. Also, Latham vs Hendrickson is a wash (not like Guyton). Gibbens still out tho = big deal.
LB Wilson out, Bachie Doubtful = Pollard finally getting a TD?
Im a fan of LAR so I teased bigger on 8-8.5 & small SF +3.5 only. Hate the game after LAR win vs BUF + Durant out + Hufunga healthy & possibly Bosa back. As an Anaheim Rams fan I have a skewed view. GL
"They’ve beaten no winning teams since losing Christian Darrisaw."
Weren't the Cardinals 6-5 when they faced off against the Vikings? Technically, could say Vikings have not lost to any winning teams after losing Darrisaw too.
YOU SURE PUT OUT A LOT OF INfo to be so bad at picking these games.I could bring up a bunch of examples ,but I will use the bears game only.San Francisco was my favorite play i put 5 units on them.The bears are horrible and the 49ers are a good team at home.If i looked right i didn't see a lot of correct picks,I do enjoy the content and will continue to read each week even though I don't always agree.
AZ vs MIN - the Chargers & Vikings are tied for least rushing TDs allowed in the league at 5. This is the 1st home game for Min in 4 weeks. Walt - I appreciate you digging into Murray's blitz #s. AZ has SEA next = SEA, min, SEA. I'm playing the ML... MIN -9U to win 5U
It sucks that Pace Jr. is out cause MIN is #9 vs TE (McBride). At least Cashman is healthy. I would be worried that AZ is #1 in penalties, but MIN is #3.
Same here. But I think I may have finally figured the Cardinals out. (As for the Saints - they had their little, new rah-rah coach, pre-bye fun. I think the Rams beat them in workmanlike fashion.)
ARI GM Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon were great hires. They're establishing culture the right way and the arrow is pointing up for the organization. So when they face teams that are poorly coached (those pre-bye Ws vs. MIA, CHI and NYJ perfect examples), they TCB - especially if the opponent struggles vs. the run. Otherwise, the Cardinals can be had. They just don't have a very talented depth chart (especially on defense) and it catches up to them when they face teams with a good coaching staff. You take away Conner, and the offense becomes little more than McBride-or-bust, as none of the WRS have been able to create separation or YAC this season. Petzing's scheme has grown predictable and has shackled Murray. (One game above 21 rushing yards since Week 5.) The interior O-line is a glaring weakness and was fully exposed by SEA.
The Vikings are extremely well-coached and nails vs. the run. ARI doesn't match up well at all. As for the Flores blitz vs. Murray angle, I'm calling for variance. I would bet MIN if not for the Pace injury and my distrust of Sam Darnold.
@Mr. Bitter - thanks for the input. I decided to avoid the ML as the 9U for 5U risk/reward isnt worth it. I still like MIN and decided to go the teaser route instead, mixing 2-game teasers w/ DEN, LAR, SEA & BUF. GL
@Mr. Bitter & Baird : Interesting analysis on the Cardinals. To me they look like a team that is a year away [ as does the Chargers ] . M. Harrison Jr. is talented but plays like a rookie and there seems to be a serious problem with quality depth. I noticed from watching the game, especially late in the 4th quarter, that K. Murray seemed reluctant to use his legs to move the chains ? I don't know what to make of that.
As a long time Bear fan I hate to bet them but I think that the Bears are the play this week. No Eberflus around to screw up, and the 49ers are decimated with injuries. Frankly they might not win another game this year as it has to be apparent to their veterans that the team is not going anywhere this year. Lately the Bears have been playing everyone close and the 3 1/2 points should be a nice cushion for a team that should be highly motivated to win.
I make my own line before the actual lines come out and I made the Bengals - 1 over the Cowboys. I was thinking this might be the time to finally back the Bengals but the line has them favored by - 6 ! If I decide to bet that game I would definitely take the Cowboys. The Bengals defense is atrocious, I can't see them holding a lead late in a close game. I know the Cowboys stink, but they have been getting some of their injured players back and they seemed to have a little bit of momentum. I am seldom that far off on a line, and I'm really confused about the 6 point spread. Am I mistaken ?
I don't think you're mistaken. Walt's assessment of CIN/DAL is pretty spot-on. The Bengals just aren't a good team.
That opening CIN -6 line is nuts to me. The only explanations I can think of are:
DAL has been complete dogsh*t at home vs. any team with a pulse this season, or...
...Vegas anticipates a "pride" performance from CIN (which I might buy if CIN hadn't been so flat when it actually mattered and Zac Taylor wasn't such an ineffective HC), or...
...Vegas thinks bettors might ignore all the factors that make DAL the right side and boil it all down to "Burrow is so much better than Rush".
Pissed-off Burrow going nuclear while Rush lays an egg is definitely on the table, but Burrow has been going nuclear all season and the Bengals still lose. Like Walt said - CIN has almost nothing positive going on beyond Burrow/Chase/Higgins, while a lot of positive stuff is going on for DAL right now relative to their record. DAL will probably have Diggs and Bland back at CB...Orlando Brown Jr. is DOUBTFUL just as Parsons is getting into a lather...Lamb staying positive and gutting it out...Brandin Cooks coming back...Jake Ferguson coming back just as Logan Wilson goes on IR...DeMarvion Overshown emerging as a stud...hell, even Mazi Smith has been grading out well lately. I gotta think DAL stays within a FG.
I'm kinda liking SF to cover vs. your Bears. Even with all the injuries, one of those aforementioned pride games is something I could see from SF in this one, especially off two humbling road losses. Just can't see a Shanahan team quitting. The Bears are also pretty banged-up themselves.
If the Niners can run on anybody right now, it's CHI, and if SF can control any team's run game right now, it's CHI. (De'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are trending OUT.) I'm thinking a back-to-basics, 23-17ish win for SF behind a strong performance from Isaac Guerendo.
LVR vs TB - I keep finding myself putting O'Connell, Meyers & Bowers in DK lineups. The price is right on QB at $4,800. Brock is the most expensive TE, but for good reason (TB#27 D vs TE) and Meyers is under-priced at $5,700.
MY POINT? If I keep adding them to lineups shouldn't I expect this game to be close? I mean, LVR put up... 17 vs KC 19 vs DEN 17 vs MIA
Those are good Ds. Plus, TB seems like they're in letdown mode - OT win vs div rival, Baker beat-up & prob not going to give full attention to crappy non-conference, 2-10 team. Once again, I didn't learn my lesson and went too big early in the week on TB -0.5; now I like LVR +12.5
Full disclosure: ESPN Bet guy went into detail on why LVR is the front-runner to have the worst record and get #1 draft pick. Maybe he's right and they already gave up. MY NOTE: there are 3 teams vying for #1 pick - NYG, LVR & JAX. Jags go to Vegas wk16 so 1 of those teams get a win. NYG seem like #1 winner. *I cant name a single college player so 1, 2 or 3 draft pick is lost on me.
LV absolutely can't run the ball. They shouldn't even waste their time trying vs. TB. I imagine Irving/White/Tucker will find success from jump, so O'Connell should be flinging it early and often. The TB pass D is susceptible.
The Bucs are awful defending the slot. If Tykee Smith is OUT again, Meyers could practically be running against air. Bowers will do his usual Bowers things, so there's real shootout potential in this one - assuming LV puts forth a little effort. I don't see why they wouldn't - it's not as if they're coming down from anything. They were never in contention to begin with. Pierce and his staff are awful, but the players like them, so I can't imagine LV just full-on rolling over.
I'm sniffing around an O'Connell/Meyers/Bowers stack for DFS tournaments, maybe with an Otton runback. (Two-TE uniqueness/Mike Evans hurt, QUESTIONABLE).
I'm with you on the Giants emerging with the #1 pick. Miserable vibes in that locker room. Drew Lock is now operating behind 3rd-string OTs...that's going to get really ugly. Schoen and Daboll feel like dead men walking.
I get Walt's GB pick but it feels like its Detroit's year. Now some would say then why didn't they handle Chicago? Well it was Thanksgiving and of course that would be made into a close game. I think Detroit makes a statement tonight despite the injuries. Scratch 'think' I feel. Which I know to people picking games they'd rather it be pure objective analysis. We'll see how it goes.
)
Looks like Thuney moved to LT & Caliendo is at guard so HUNTER & ANDERSON dont destroy Mahomes. Good move KC
Edge win rate rankings -
1. Hunter
6. Anderson Jr
KC O-line strength? Interior
Question: do refs give RT Taylor extra step or call false starts? Prob the biggest deal in this game
I'm guessing we see a bunch of Pacheco, misdirection & quick passes = long drawn out drives &/or stalled drives with long field. Hollywood is back, but how much does he really play? Prob just getting ready for postseason. KC is @PIT + @DEN next so they should show up in their FINAL home game. IDK - spags, Jones+Karlaftis & McDuffie should limit HOU's O, but KC isnt exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Chenal's status is big vs Mixon.
Spread has been all over the place. I got small on UNDER.
PIT vs BAL - Steelers magic is done. PIT continues to trend down even though past stats scream otherwise in this game. I've only teased BAL 0 to -0.5 so far.
Side note - PIT's schedule reminds me of CHI (5 div games in 6 weeks) when they battled hard for a big DIV stretch, had an off game and lost big only to come back and fail. Is CHI @ MIN a precursor to this game?