Ouch ! Thanks to Baird & Mr. Bitter for the quick response. I'm also aware that Walt thinks this game may be his best bet. I guess that I don't disagree but really don't like either team. I also don't know about the coaching situation. Is the interim coach for NO any good ? [ Probably unlikely ] . Is the coach for Cleveland solid/good ? [ I think he is overrated and not as good as most people think ] . Who's the best offensive player on the field ? Alvin Kamara. No other major weapons on either team. Who's the best QB ? Dennis Carr [ not saying much ]. If I believe correctly wasn't Winston the backup for Carr when he was injured and missed some games last year ? Like I said you guys are probably correct, I 'm just uncomfortable on being on either side of what I consider bad teams. Out of curiosity : what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night ? Was that a complete one off or are they finally starting to play up to expectations ?
Stefanski is a solid coach, IMO. No coach would have succeeded in the situation management forced upon him with the Watson signing.
I don't know much about Darren Rizzi, but I know this: Teams almost always get a pronounced one-game bump upon an in-season coaching change. Even with that bump, the Saints still would have lost at home to an obviously flat ATL squad had it not been for some last-minute clock mismanagement by the Falcons and three missed Younghoe Koo FGs. Like Marquez Valdez-Scantling's stat line, that victory was an obvious fluke.
Kamara may be the best offensive weapon in this matchup, but beyond him, it's crap like MVS, Foster Moreau and some guy called Mason Tipton for the Saints. I'll take Njoku, a healthy Chubb/Ford RB tag team, and the Tillman/Jeudy/Moore WR trio over what the Saints are trotting out any day. (Small sample size, but since CLE traded Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman is second only to Ja'Marr Chase by many WR performance metrics.) The Saints - already down C Erik McCoy - may also be without the left side of their O-line for this one. The NO offensive depth chart is a disaster.
As for MIA - I'm not sure how legit Monday's win was. Not sure if a game vs. a team as untalented and poorly-coached as LV will provide us any clarity, either. Kinda wait-and-see with MIA. Tua isn't pushing the ball downfield, Tyreek is obviously hurt, and the Austin Jackson injury means a RT Kendall Lamm vs. LDE Maxx Crosby glaring mismatch. A Raiders win wouldn't shock me, but I'm not touching that game.
Simple for me. CHUBB preseason came 3 weeks ago vs CIN, then he battled 2 great run Ds in BAL (#1 ypc) & LAC #1 Rush TD allowed. He should keep the chains moving vs #31 ypc D (Saints @ 5.1). Carr had all the time in the world to throw w/ ATL zero pass rush (I watched the 30 min condensed replay & it was obvious), coach firing, blocked FG and missed FGs. TNF would normally be a worry, but not off a bye. I think the trajectory of CLE since Watson injury, SB vs BAL and letdown VS a good LAC team + BYE is a perfect setup for this week. Public has not caught up - THIS IS NOT D. WATSON Browns. JO-K is a big loss though.
Like I said, Chubb should keep the chains moving, Tillman is coming on strong, Moore is getting more rec, Carr wont have time, Njoku is healthy and CLE has 1 small chance for playoffs (plus pride?). I think Walt is good w/ 24-17 final. I'm thinking further apart. GL
@KM what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night
As a (an before A doesnt sound right). As uh Anaheim Rams fan, I teased 6U+ on MIA +8.5 with the understanding that I have 3U on LAR > 6.5 wins. I lost 1U on the over - same as tonight.
As a Rams fan, how do you like their WC chances? I'm having trouble getting a read on them. Unprepared and mistake-prone was what I expected from MIA, not the Rams. Just feels like there's some angle I'm missing that might have them overvalued right now. Youth? So many of their key contributors are 1st/2nd year guys...
I think the Havenstein injury could be a real problem vs. the Pats. Keion White and Deatrich Wise are a quietly dominant tag team at LDE.
@Mr. Bitter - good call on TB/HOU covers (even w Collins out). You guys were spot on w/ Ind for a while, but BUF is for real. I do like IND next week knowing Jets season is done. Wish I stuck to my HUGE bet idea on AZ. Oh well, teasers still came through.
Hope you made money this week. I got lucky w/ KC and lost a few on Conner. Overall +9.4 today
Looking ahead - teasing CLE 8.5 vs Saints. I looked back to Antonio Pierce in 2023 after they showed up vs NYG
You got lucky with KC - I got lucky with TB. I'll take it, but - honestly - I stuck with my "TB is still undervalued" angle that had been profitable all season one week too long. SF should have won that game by double digits. I still think the Bucs could be a thorn in other teams' sides down the stretch, but I'm off them for a while (especially with the Wirfs injury).
SF looks poised to get a lather going, but I still don't believe they're quite what they're cracked up to be. Placekicker is a serious problem, the right side of their O-line is weak and that defensive depth chart is thoroughly mediocre beyond Warner and Bosa. They feel like a playoff upset victim waiting to happen.
IND was my least-confident play. I knew there was a good chance that Flacco may have already fallen off the cliff, and it appears he has. I mistakenly ignored that hunch while leaning too hard into the BUF look-ahead angle. BUF is just so well-coached. McDermott/Allen seem to have a poor man's Belichick/Brady thing going where they can plug anybody into auxiliary roles and just keep rolling along.
I just flat-out whiffed on the Jets (and Cardinals). AGAIN. Both teams have been radioactive for me all year, yet I keep flushing money down those toilets. As a Jets fan, I should have known that they won't beat a decent team until it's later in the season and it's in a situation that will knock them out of draft position to finally get a franchise QB. It's just what they do.
Still not sold on ARI. Their success isn't sustainable given the talent level on that defensive depth chart. I'll die on that hill. They won't finish ahead of the 49ers or Rams, and I'll very likely be heavy on SEA in Week 12.
Yeah, Conner is RB2 on my fantasy team and I figured his numbers would begin to even out, especially with Benson inevitably getting more run regardless of game script.
Your CLE lean looks rock solid. It's common for teams to get that initial bump from an in-season coaching change, especially when the axed coach was thoroughly hated and the interim coach is a likeable rah-rah type like Pierce/Rizzi. The Saints will undoubtedly come right back down to earth. Taliese Fuaga was injured and Trevor Penning sucks in pass pro; the Falcons simply don't have rushers capable of taking advantage, but Myles Garrett will take turns on both edges and wreak havoc.
Always appreciate your input and congrats on a nice week. GL going forward.
I agree completely 1. They have wins against good teams - WAS, DET & PHI 2. The losses arent bad - DEN (letdown game), ATL (should have split) + BAL, KC & SF
The
bye came at the right time - Evans & Tykee should be back by 11/24,
Otton has come on strong and the fight in Mayfield is impressive. The
rest of their schedule is cake, except @ LAC.
Remaining favored - NYG, CAR (twice), LVR, DAL & NO.
After taking a week off, I'm back to make a fool of myself. I have 2 teams I like this week, so I'm quite interested in both Baird & Mr. Bitter's top play this week to fill out my Round Robin Parlay. [1] I'm on the Steelers + 3 at home in a big divisional rivalry game. I assume both teams had circled this game earlier in the year and I expect maximum effort from both teams. Although the home field edge is not as strong as it used to be, it still accounts for something [ referee bias ? ] Anyway, I probably would have played the Steelers at - 1 and maybe - 2 so getting + 3 is a bonus. [2] Why are the Chargers favored by only 1 1/2 against the Bengals at home ? This is a huge Coaching Mismatch. The Bengal defense quit in the second half against the Ravens last week and I prefer to wager on the team with a better running game and a much superior defense. Once again, I would have taken the Chargers up to - 3, so 1 1/2 somewhat reduces the chance of a backdoor cover. There are a lot of games that I wouldn't touch this week as there are some matchups and lines that don't make sense. I hate playing big favorites and I hate playing bad teams. KC - Buff should be a great game to watch but I'm not betting it and I think the line is right and I don't see any advantage for either team. Best of luck to all this week.
Regarding the CIN/LAC spread - I think bettors are still leaning hard into the "this is a must-win for the Bengals" angle. It's an obvious and fair take, but it can be argued that CIN has been close to (or even in) must-win territory for weeks now, yet they continue laying eggs. Expecting this week to be the week the Bengals suddenly flip the switch is starting to feel like definition of insanity from a betting perspective. Joe Burrow is playing as well as can possibly be expected, yet CIN keeps coming out flat and losing. The CIN O-line sucks, the defense is a one-man show (Hendrickson), and Zac Taylor just can't light a fire under his team while being a miserable in-game manager. All the evidence says that CIN just isn't very good, yet bettors are falling into the trap of valuing them by what they should be instead of what they are.
My top play is CLE. I think the Browns win SU - maybe even comfortably - so getting any points is a gift. The Saints used up all their "We finally fired our crappy coach!" mojo last week and will come down to earth. Matchup wise, all signs point to a "Good Jameis" game (CLE offense getting healthy, gutted NO secondary) and domination from Myles Garrett (injured/weak NO tackles).
I'm passing on BAL/PIT. Always tight rivalry game that could easily hinge on some in-game injury or suspect calls (as you suggested). However, I'm not comfortable with the recent Russell Wilson hype and could see him fade a bit, not unlike Justin Fields' early-season rise and fall. Just a hunch - not bettable just yet.
Almost forgot: KC/BUF - Leaning KC but probably just gonna sit back and enjoy. The media consensus seems to be that KC has smoke-and-mirrored their way to 9-0 and their fun stops Sunday. Fair, but I wonder if that narrative is just enough blood in the water for Reid/Mahomes. Also not liking BUF possibly down Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid in an all-hands-on-deck game.
@Karensman - I'm w Bitter as my top play is CLE. I was lucky to tease them before SNF @ +8.5 and continued to add at +7. I have 10.6U on teasers with CLE getting a TD+. I'm going to hit the ML on Sat and will prob go 5-8 units getting near even money.
I would agree with Walter on his Bengals pick; however, I prefer the Chargers' coach to the Bengals' coach quite a bit. For example, it was inexplicable to me why the Bengals did not attempt a single field goal against the Ravens when they had a multitude of opportunities. Had they done so, I believe they would have won.
One question that keeps popping up for me, and I feel like I missed something. Many times when Jordan Love's name is mentioned, you preface it with "No Cookie". What does that mean?
Walt ive tried to stick with you, and i have for a long time. But im sorry, you are terrible, im giving up on you. Jesus , youd make a FORTUNE fading your picks
@Walt - You have PIT as a great teaser leg (me too), but no bet? You also have MIN as a top play @ -7. Why not PIT+9 paired w/ MIN-1 for a few? Cmon dude, add some PIT and enjoy the fresh D-line vs a rookie QB w/ PHI on Thurs. Also SF 0 &/or LAC -1.5. Seems like a great weekend.
PIT +3 (1.2 to win 1) PIT+9/LAC-1.5 (2.2 to win 2) PIT+9 spread out (5.6 to win a mix)
Golfing tomorrow so prob wont post again & felt like I'd get my notes out to revisit Sun AM.
Teaser leans... ATL +2.5 - hated this game w/ coach firing, home field and div - felt like Saints. BUT something tells me this means a lot to ATL to fully clinch div (DEN & bye next). *The game I was looking for last week was NO/CAR where -7 teased to -1 failed. Maybe I'm Bitter this week PIT +9 SF - LAC -1.5 PHI -1 (why does this worry me, its Copper Rush) MIN -1 KC-2
Sorry for all the posts - notes to keep me honest & appreciate feedback. GL
AZ - I really wanted to like AZ this week (and still do a bit going into their bye), but my hope of CHI showing up last week failed and we have a desperate NY team coming to town. I'm on the fence on betting AZ ML, but have a few +7.5-8 on teasers and love James Conner in this w/ Mosley out.
Conner 80+ & 1TD (1U to win 1.97) Conner 100+ & 2TD (1U to win 9.5)
Hoping the first hits and I freeroll the second. GL
Walt mu upset special- the Cowboys upset the iggles on Sunday afternoon at Jerry 's World- expect the Cowboys to play keep away- keeping hurts on the sideline by running the football and winning the time of possession. If the Mike McCarthy commit to the run game and have Rush throw 25 times- Cowboys will have a chance. If the Cowboys defense can keep the iggles offense with 3 and outs and force hurts yo commit a turnover. This will help Parsons to feast on hurts- especially have if Cowboys has the lead
@Walt Wasn't there something about betting on bad teams esp vs good teams.
Jax to win vs Min?
and to a lesser degree
Ind to cover vs Buf
NO to cover vs Atl
I agree with most of your insights but I think your validating some story angles a little too much. In the end, these good teams will just not allow it to happen
I think walt should get a blindfold and 6 darts and the weekly football schedule and let the darts fly. You might have more than 1 winning week. And the best is i pay for this service. I think that helen keller would have done better.
What am I missing this week? It feels like the perfect TEASER weekend which also feels wrong. There has to be something I'm missing.
I loved DAL +9, but all the OUT injuries have me spooked (not a Halloween pun). ATL is the rightish side, but +3 isnt enough after the TB game and neither is DAL +9. I still like Dak/Lamb vs 0 pass rush (plus best kicker in the league **prob dif in the game indoors) and dare I say Dowdle starting. But I went too big on DAL early in the week and now regret it. Learning leasons every week.
Leans with all current info... Buf - (is this the weird one that loses? No way, maybe. Why only 6 & not 8.5?) IND +11.5 PHI -1.5 Dal +8.5-9 (now regret), adding ATL +3 to slightly balance Saints -1 (why is this stuck at 7 w/ Carr & Hill back and Young starting? Hubbard kills it? IDK) KC -2.5 LAR +4.5 (AJ Barner DK $2600)
Secondary Mix Den 15.5 & Bal 3.5 - who has Den beat? Lets not forget Bal went to KC (great D is my point) and lost by a Likely inch. Of course TNF is the issue - wait, doesnt DEN have KC next? Mix LVR +13 & CIN -1 - hate this game but trying to middle. Mix Chi/AZ *If AZ faces 100% of Chi's D (like a tough game to get 20 points) I'm going huge ML on AZ vs NYJ the next week, before their bye and before SEA, X, SEA. **Prob - lead in the Div has to have AZ pumped this week (Hail Mary has CHI deflated? Or chewed out & focused?, 2nd road game)
Please give insight on CHI VS AZ cause I want to bet HUGE on AZ ML vs NYJ next week.
LAR/SEA > 42 LAC/CLE < 48.5 NE/TEN < 44
I love this week teaser-wise which cant be a good thing.
I think BUF is most likely to be the weird one that loses. The Bills are no doubt the better team with better coaching, but the Dolphins just plain score a lot of points when Tua is under center. This is also must-win time for MIA, whereas BUF is so comfortably ahead in the AFC East that there may already be a need to manufacture motivation. The true QUESTIONABLE tags for Amari Cooper and Christian Benford are also concerning if you're on BUF.
I can't back ARI with any confidence, even with all of the O-line problems and defensive injuries for CHI. The ARI defense is just so untalented. While their 4-4 record is commendable considering their SOS, it still feels like a flimsy 4-4. That defense will start hemorrhaging points at any moment.
Tough slate. I could go either way on most of the games this weekend. The most solid bets are ATL -3 and PHI -7.5, IMO. I'm kinda liking CLE as a home dog and definitely liking DET as a road favorite. (DET is a tough-minded team built to control the LOS, so the "Goff/dome team" angle as overblown, IMO. DET could easily dominate the trenches in what is shaping up to be a slop fest, especially with GB center Josh Myers DOUBTFUL.)
I appreciate the feedback. I dont like the AZ game this week either - just hoping CHI shows up so AZ looks bad and the line next week is a little softer w NYJ coming off a win.
You could be on to something with the BUF motivation angle, but I expect more of a letdown to come from them next week (after MIA & before KC/bye).
Im w you on PHI and love it on teasers @ -1.5; however, there is also the letdown angle as they are coming off a blowout win and have DAL/WAS next. Plus Hines-Allen vs whoever is at LT is a prob.
Three team par with: Denver +9.5, Indy +5.5, Chiefs -9.5. As it turns out, all of these games are easily timed spaced between each other, makes for easy progressive hedge plays as I go along. Risking 1 unit to win 6 units. Three team 10 point Total teaser with: DN/Balt game OVER 36.5, Wash/NYG game Under 54 at this time, holding off to see if I can get a half point involved as ties in my ten point teaser constitute a loss. NOR/CAR OVER 33.5. Risking 1 unit to win less. Finally, a 4 team 13 point teaser with: Packers +15.5, Raiders +20, Wash +9, Chargers +12. Again, holding off on all whole number lines to see if I can get half point lines. Risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit. GLTA tomorrow and Monday.
I can't believe the Jet's aren't going to find a way to string their fan base on a little be longer. Losing tonight would be too easy as far as NFL fandom torture goes.
Originally I only liked 2 games this week. There is no way that N.O. should be favored by 7 over another NFL team with a rookie QB on the road and the league's worst head coach. However, I can't stomach taking the points with the Panthers because of their overall ineptness and muddled QB situation. I liked the Colts vs. the Vikings, anything over 3 points is a must play on the Colts. But I was reluctant to wager on Richardson who can run but not throw. Then this afternoon I find out that Carr is expected back for N.O. making a Panthers wager lose any value and turning it into a 'no play'. And the Colts announced they were turning to Flacco at QB instead of Richardson. That instantly turns the Colts into a must wager - I agree with Walter, just a little surprised it's not his play of the month but it is still be early in November with a lot of football to play. I have a great deal of respect for Steichen, one of the sharpest new coaches whose teams always seem to overachieve or at least put forth a consistent effort. The move to Flacco tells me that he thinks that the Colts are serious playoff contender and that the organization owes it to the players that the team is willing to do what it takes to win. Richardson may or may not be the answer to the future [ I tend to doubt that he is ] but Flacco gives them a much better chance to win now. I'm not sure that Steichen is a better coach than the Vikings but he is every bit as good and I would not expect him to make a bone headed mistake. Go Colts !
IND/MIN jumped out at me too - especially with the Darrisaw injury - but I've hesitated knowing the Vikings might get Blake Cashman and T.J. Hockenson back. There's serious potential for a "last team with the ball wins" game with Flacco replacing Richardson, and it feels like I'm usually on the wrong side of those games. I saw the Richardson benching coming about the time he checked himself out of the game vs. HOU, and just went with the OVER on 45.5. Could easily clear 50, IMO.
I'm going to continue to fade the Jets until it's not profitable. Every "Which Teams Will Turn Their Season Around In The Second Half?" article I've read this week has the Jets at the top of the list, which tells me that the public still can't wrap their head around the idea that the Jets are no more than exactly what they appear to be. There's still meat on that bone.
The (hostage) situation with NYJ/Rodgers is similar to CLE/Watson was in that everything is predicated on the QB holding up his end of the bargain, otherwise everything falls apart. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign all of Rodgers' BFFs and every 2019 NFC Pro Bowler - if Rodgers is drastically compromised by age/injury (which is becoming more apparent by the week) then the season is lost, especially with Rodgers apparently resisting treatment in favor of "cayenne and water' home treatment. (Wish I was kidding.)
Literally have zero games that I am willing to play straight up (in a 3 team par of course,) so a big ol' teaser is the play for me today. 5 team 14 pointer with: Lions +1, Ravens +6.5, Chiefs +5, Broncos +3 and holding out for a half point line in the Pittsburgh game. By game time Monday one way or the other, I will tease Pittsburgh. Risking 1 unit. GLTA.
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