Games between these 2 teams over the last few years have been compelling. Buffalo tends to win in the regular season and KC in the playoffs.
That will change this year. The Bills defensive injury problems earlier this year are now much better with the return of stellar players in LBs Milano & Bernard along with one of the league's best slot corners in Taron Johnson.
Josh Allen (under the tutalage of OC Joe Brady) is using all of his RBs, TEs, and WRs in a ball-control offense while still having his cannon arm if the safties play up (not to mention his great running ability). It will be a close game, but Buffalo will prevail. We will all will be watching a Bills - Eagles Super Bowl.
I completely agree with you, Walter. The Bills are the slightly better team, however, the officiating worries me. Clete Blakeman has made several controversial calls that cost me a bet. It also seems like every time I bet against Mahomes, he finds a way to win the game. I'll have to think about this one.
for someone who pretends to be such a sharp, you sure lose a lot by waiting until game day to bet. you do realize the market is at it's most efficient on game day right? quit being a []
For all my statistical digging, I overlooked the simple fact that the Lamar Jackson-era Ravens can't help but shoot themselves in the foot in the playoffs. Congrats on a great week, Walt. Enjoy the inevitable Chiefs three-peat brought to you by State Farm, Pfizer and playoff referees.
Good on you to comment on hear. In the recap it didn't sound like Walt was gloating too much about it. That he acknowledged the Ravens lost it as much as the Bills won it. Good stuff.
AFCChampionshipPrediction: Xavier Worthy gets loose for 100+ yards and 2 TDs. The entire fourth quarter will be Romo and Nantz talking about what a mistake it was for BUF to let KC move up in the draft for Worthy.
YOU should have ignored Baltimore's "Glaring flaws" when they steamrolled Pittsburg... Who are these people with "inexplicable mania"?... Do Circadian Rhythms affect a WHOLE team and not just an individual?... Does wearing firefighters shirts or having a better ""resume" give you an advantage?
You should get away from these unproven intangibles... your success would improve greatly I am convinced... Logic, Reasonableness are king in any judgement call (Gut feeling can be useful too, sometimes)
As for the Commentators dross,every week!!..Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping... never read once all the years I've followed the site
Been following for many years but other handicappers are providing better analysis... Once great site, slowly losing credence... shame
Eh, it's still a great site. 90% of other sites have a team of prognosticators; Walt has been flying solo on handicapping for two decades. It's impressive if only for the endurance.
Walt's picks are usually solid and he's often out ahead of a lot of angles many other prognosticators miss. He's just lost in the labyrinth of Group A/Group B minutiae right now and has a stubborn blind spot with the Ravens. (These spells are bound to happen when a guy is basically in the midst of a cruel, two decade long, one-man sociology experiment.) His CFB picks have been money in the bank this season, and Charlie Campbell's annual NFL Draft content/predictions are eerily accurate.
Being active in comment sections (beyond just jumping in one time to get your kicks in after a bad bet) is part of supporting a site, and I would like to think I fold a few substantial angles into my weekly dross, as do other core commentors. Hell, we've been trying to get through to Walt about the terrible blunder he's making with Baltimore with stats and angles for weeks...and we do it before the games start.
"...Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping..."
(Mentally read that part with a kinda gay lisp...Sorry, couldn't help it.)
Thanks, but I don't think I could possibly spend any more time handicapping. Getting okay at it, too. Went summer vacation money-heavy on BAL and LAR last week. Feels good.
@Mr. Bitter : Glad to hear you've been doing well, keep it up. Making money on the NFL is tough. I couldn't pull the trigger this week although I would have hit the under on the Hou-Kc game. I'm with you as far as Walter, I enjoy reading his matchup writeups and analysis although I don't always agree with his opinion. If I don't have a bet on a game, I will usually root for Walter's team. I have some advice that I think would really help Walter : Spend more time and money handicapping the over/under. I broke into the Race & Sports wagering business in 1982 working at a small casino in North Las Vegas . Down the street was the Delmar Race & Sportsbook which was run by Bill Dark who was the acknowledged Bookmaker that started posting lines on Over/Unders for most sports. I'd like to make one point about over/unders : why are the limits so much lower on Total bets ? Although a lot has changed on sports wagering over the years , the gap on limits between totals wagers and wagers on the sides remains high. Both wagers usually employ the -110 line so the juice for the house remains the same. I firmly believe that Walter's win percentage would improve and he might even be able to go back to posting his picks for free rather than have us subsidize his losses. And like many of his readers, I don't read or pay any attention to his comments on Monday Night Football announcers or Jerks of the Week, I would rather focus on the games. I actually find that the opinions of you and Baird among others are better than Walter's. Good luck to all
Thanks. The Rams and Ravens have been good to me recently. (Although this is my stop on the Rams.)
Full disclosure: You'll almost never see me delve into prop bets, O/Us, teasers and such, and that's by design.
The job I've worked at for close to a decade now has been doing a weekly NFL SU picks pool since I've been there. I basically won the pool every week for the first few years of my employment, and this was noticed by the owner - a wealthy, old-school ponies guy that was only a casual football fan but always has an eye open for action. He pulled me aside and proposed a money man/idea man arrangement where all I had to do was give him my weekly NFL picks ATS weighted by confidence, let him do his thing, and get my cut. No teasing, no props action, just straight down the list ATS. Anything else has to be on my dime. He's okay with eating some loss as long as it's a profitable venture overall. However, he keeps track of my team-by-team record and alerts me when a pattern suggests I'm not reading a team correctly. Forces me to constantly reevaluate teams, and has taught me that formulas like Walt's Group A/Group B stuff are nearly useless, as it's almost never about where a team is from - it's where a team is at. Especially this time of year.
I don't think Jerks of the Week, the TV Commentators shtick, etc, will be going anywhere any time soon. Hate to play amateur psychologist, but Walt is obviously a guy who is very resistant to change. Not a big deal because we're all like that to some degree, but his stubbornness sometimes gets him in trouble when handicapping. His current "Ravens are overrated" ride is a perfect example. He still talks about BAL as if they're the same team from a few months ago that was enduring the rookie growing pains of Roger Rosengarten and Nate Wiggins (now emerging stars), Justin Tucker's yips, and still starting Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams at safety. Instead of reevaluating and adjusting accordingly, he'll just go down with the ship.
BAL is my only bet this weekend, but I have a nagging feeling I'm leaving $$ on the table by laying off HOU.
Hate this matchup for the Chiefs. Three-peat pressure, while HOU is playing with house money. The HOU defense is running hot, and the state of the KC O-line is giving me SB 55 vibes.
Thuney starting at LT seems more an indictment of D.J. Humphries than absolute confidence in Thuney. Even when playing LT, Thuney plays like a guard - immediate engagement and getting up in those pads, with little traditional kickstep action to be seen. Great guard, but he needs help on the edge. Anderson and Hunter could be a serious problem for Mahomes.
Another serious problem is Mike Caliendo at LG. He sucks. Just makes me even less confident in a KC run game that has looked meh anyway. (Pacheco is not right. Maybe the extended layoff helps him?) Especially against a HOU run defense that is #2 in adjusted line yards and top-10 when Fatukasi and Al-Shaair are healthy.
That said, KC is at home in 20 degree conditions vs. a dome team. With Jaylen Watson back the KC defense could pitch a shutout.
For those less afraid than me and are betting HOU, I salute you. GL to all.
I am not much of a trends guy. I like to take the team that comes in hot down the stretch. That being said the Chiefs are 13-5 ats in playoff games with Mahomes . It would be hard to bet against that.
SATURDAY NOTES: Kevin Zeitler is out, while Taylor Decker will play. I still like the Redskins for a few units with the back-door potential. Something else that hurts the Rams is that Alaric Jackson was DNP on Friday. If he’s going to be sidelined, Matthew Stafford will be in trouble in the pocket
"Zay Flowers is doubtful. Yet, the Ravens are still favored because of the mania surrounding this team."
During Flowers' career, BAL is 13-0 SU (including 2-0 SU in the playoffs) in games in which Flowers was inactive or targeted less than 5 times. Just more two-TE sets, more targets for Bateman, Likely and Hill, and more Ricard/6 OL jumbo sets. (Smallish BUF defense ranked 31st vs. jumbo sets, BTW.)
The Ravens aren't favored because of mania. The Ravens are favored because they are a matchup nightmare for the Bills and can beat you in a dozen different ways right now.
"I like both Buffalo outside receivers against Baltimore's crappy cornerbacks"
I get that this statement is likely more double-down and feather-ruffling than anything else at this point, but - again - it's wrong.
If you want to say that Brandon Stephens is crappy, fair enough. Stephens has allowed nearly 1,000 yards and 5 TDs in coverage. He cannot get his head around on deep shots for the life of him. What I wanna know is this: Do you think Nate Wiggins is crappy? If so, you haven't payed attention since roughly midseason.
BAL's rising defensive EPA and #1 EPA vs. the pass since Week 11 despite Stephens' struggles is largely due to a pronounced increase in top-end help from Kyle Hamilton on Stephens' side to mitigate damage. Why has BAL been able to employ this tactic? Because Nate Wiggins is emerging as a lockdown boundary corner on the other side.
Following some very normal early-rookie season hiccups and some yanking in and out of the lineup, Wiggins has fully blossomed since mideason.
Wiggins has been thrown at 67 times, and has allowed a 59.7 passer rating.
Since Week 12, Wiggins has settled in as a 90% snap share starter after typically playing 30-60% in the early season.
Wiggins' TD allowed last week vs. PIT was his first of the season. He has as many TD scored as TD allowed.
Wiggins is #1 in the NFL in target separation allowed, #5 in catch rate allowed, #6 in passer rating allowed, and #16 in pass breakups.
Wiggins hasn't allowed more than 3 catches or 49 yards since Week 13, despite games where he shadowed A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers and Nico Collins.
If you want to say something along the lines of "Wiggins' inexperience is bound to catch up to him in the postseason", I could kinda buy that. But to say he's currently a crappy CB is objectively wrong.
What is the consensus in this comment section on the primary reason Walt missed on his Pit Bal pick last week? Was he more wrong about Pit or Bal? I think he may still be proven right about the Ravens defense and Pit just simply wasn't the team do it.
Can only speak for myself, but here's what I think:
The "BAL's secondary is weak" angle is incorrect. Has been for a while. Boundary CB Brandon Stephens alone is the weak link - maybe on the entire team. Walt's "The Bills are better than the Ravens" take - while defiantly bold - is untrue. It's untrue by every offensive and defensive metric, and it's untrue if you simply look at the roster talent position-by-position. And this is all before factoring in John Harbaugh's historic road playoff record (#1 in road playoff wins and road playoff win % in NFL history), BUF's recent trouble TCB at home in the divisional round, and the fact that BUF's run-funnel, light box defensive scheme is the exact opposite of what you want to contain Jackson/Henry. The Ravens are an awful schematic matchup for the Bills defense and it's hardly mentioned in his writeup because he's too busy with Group A/Group B hocus pocus.
Walt's BUF>BAL play is largely based on that Group A/Group B stuff - which is inherently flawed because what teams are good on any given week is totally fluid, and it's too easy to leave out pertinent facts that don't fit your argument. (Such as the fact that BAL is 8-3 against playoff teams and would be 10-1 had it not been for Justin Tucker missing three kicks in two of those games. I can go a step further in that "what if" game: BAL would have entered the playoffs 15-2 had Tucker just been his usually reliable self and had Kyle Hamilton not dropped a sure game-ending Jameis Winston INT that hit him between the numbers vs. CLE back in October.)
Sure, Walt could eventually be right about a BAL opponent winning by targeting and burning Stephens, but that only happens if Stephens is matched up against a reliable boundary deep threat. BUF is actually an easier matchup for Stevens than PIT in that regard because Wilson-to-Pickens deep stuff is largely how PIT won through the air, whereas BUF is more about efficient over-the-middle feeds to Shakir/Samuel/TEs and a healthy dose of Superman stuff from Josh Allen. (This actually plays right into the R. Smith/Humphrey/Hamilton strength of BAL's defense.) Basically, you're banking on Keon Coleman and/or Mack Hollins to step up and give Stephens the business. Possible, but a very shaky bet.
One also has to assume that opponent controls the BAL ground game, which even the best run defenses haven't been able to do all season. Like, not at all. PIT wasn't the team to do it, and neither is BUF. Milano's presence won't change that. Milano is obviously compromised and has been mostly awful since his return. His 56.6 PFF run D grade is 148th/189 LBs, and his 48.0 overall LB grade is 161st/189 LBs, and all that is after his 86.3 grade vs. DEN - a game where Milano's role was almost purely to spy Bo Nix. If BUF uses Milano to spy Lamar Jackson, Jackson is going to break Milano's ankles and rush for 100 yards.
I was going to post about PIT/BAL earlier in the week but didnt want to seem like I was piling on. I did well on that game so I dont mind what side anyone took, but I
feel like Walt was trying to see something that wasnt there.
The short of it is... PIT played exactly like they did the previous 4 games (bad) and BAL did the same (great). The writing was on the wall & everyone in the comments seemed to see it. To me he missed both sides - PIT was worse & BAL better than his opinion of both teams.
Taylor Decker's wife just had a baby that's why he's away - He's playing. Christian Mahogany is the backup Guard and he was had a tremendous first start grading out highly. He will also be sandwiched between the best center and RT in the game so I think he'll be all right
"We had a losing week, but a winning one if the Pick of the Month never happened"
This kind of mental gymnastics is impressive even for you. You lost a 10 unit play!! so if you ignore a pick you had the MOST confidence on, it was a winning week?? Clearly it was a losing week unless you somehow could've decided to not bet your MOST CONFIDENT play of the month. insane. Steelers were nowhere close to the right side.
I realise Walt puts in endless hours on handicapping which is appreciated... my comment, if you read it in full, was concerning the time putting together the poor parody on the CBS Commentators rather than what this site is designed for... NFL INSIGHT
As for the Commentators dross,every week!!..Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping... never read once all the years I've followed the site
The site still has a value for me as a follower of NFL since 1981
Yeah, agree about the commentators stuff. At this point it's just done out of tradition and goes unread. It's this site's equivalent of a holiday fruitcake.
"...there's an inexplicable mania surrounding the Ravens..."
This is like saying there was an inexplicable mania surrounding the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. The '24 Ravens are 2nd only to those '99 Rams in offensive EPA in the SB era.
People are bedazzled by Henry because they should be. He's arguably the best post-season RB in history and is running possessed. He's been a steamroller the entire season, even against PHI and TB withVea. His Wildcard performance had nothing to do with a lack of effort by PIT - what you witnessed was a defense that got it's soul crushed by Henry and a dominant BAL O-line.
Your BUF pick is built off the assumption that BUF will contain Henry this time around, just as you assumed PIT would contain Henry in your picks last week. Good luck with that.
BUF's run defense is...just okay? (4.5 YPRA). BAL's run defense is the best in the NFL by a wide margin.
BUF's rushing attack is good. BAL's rushing attack is historically elite.
Henry is currently running with a "IF YOU GET IN MY WAY I'LL F*CKING KILL YOU" determination. Now is his time to get a ring. This is '82 playoffs John Riggins-type stuff.
)
Games between these 2 teams over the last few years have been compelling. Buffalo tends to win in the regular season and KC in the playoffs.
That will change this year. The Bills defensive injury problems earlier this year are now much better with the return of stellar players in LBs Milano & Bernard along with one of the league's best slot corners in Taron Johnson.
Josh Allen (under the tutalage of OC Joe Brady) is using all of his RBs, TEs, and WRs in a ball-control offense while still having his cannon arm if the safties play up (not to mention his great running ability). It will be a close game, but Buffalo will prevail. We will all will be watching a Bills - Eagles Super Bowl.