Saquan Barkley and Jalen Carter have been the best offensive and defensive players this postseason. They're both in a lather. However, I could see Mahomes and Chris Jones stepping up to remind everyone that they're still the best at their respective positions. As another commenter said: It's a toss up.
As with any toss up game, I'm looking for that one weakness that tips the scales. Some are predicting that the inexperience of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be that exploitable weakness, but Vic Fangio consistently puts them in the best positions for success and both have performed like Pro Bowl vets all season. I don't see why that would stop now.
The Eagles are the more balanced team. There are no glaring weaknesses to exploit. I'm guessing that KC's ineffective run game and iffy O-line catches up to them. (Specifically the gross Carter vs. Caliendo mismatch and the not-exactly-nimble OT duo of Joe Thuney/Jawaan Taylor vs. the speed and bend of Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith.)
PHI 23 KC 21
No way I'm betting this game, as I could be underestimating Reid/Mahome's three-peat motivation. There's also the possibility that penalties/turnovers go KC's way and the game ends with a Kelce walk-off TD, immediately followed by his retirement announcement and proposal to Taylor Swift. (I'm only half-kidding.)
I didn't know the Eagles SOS was 30th. That and the flue going around means I think it can go anyway but I still think the Eagles get the job done here.
Its a toss up. But Eagles SOS was 30th. Chiefs have been taking every team it plays best shot since 2018. Bullseye on its back. Last year everyone picked against them too. I have to be believe Mahomes will find a way to exploit two rookie corners. The defense will play lights out. Chiefs 31-27.
Brother, as a communist, I can assure you BLM is not a front for us. We hate identity politics more than any Republican or Democrat given it's all they ever wanna talk about. When you wanna talk about restoring power to the people and workers' rights, call us. Until then, keep our name out of your mouth. For the record, we probably agree on more things than I would with the average Democrat. It's wild to me how little Americans know what communism actually is after decades of Red Scare propaganda.
Excellent analysis Walter! If Cam Jurgens or Landon Dickerson are healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see Saquon Barkley rush for 150+ yards. If so, Barkley should win the SB MVP as well as the NFL MVP.
I'm sticking w PHI and have a few +7.5 teasers. Something tells me Barkley doesn't run over KC (KC D only 1 R>40 yds all season). Trying to figure out how the dome plays into this. Im not a fan of Hurts passing game, but have faith in ex-Dal OC. Fangio too.
KC #26 vs TE (Goedert over) PHI tied #2 vs TE (Kelce under)
Buffalo needed four downs to consistently move the ball or extend drives. The mark of a desperate, not a superior team. It would not have been as close as it was without the 4 down risk taking that ultimately backfired. Ultimately, Buffalo defense was simply no match for Chiefs and Mahomes. No pro bowl, no first team, no big point scoring differential. Doesn’t matter. Now have to listen to Hurts being oversold for the next two weeks. Allen was ten times better than Hurts. Bills left it all on the field. Ultimately gave Chiefs all the could handle. And it still wasn’t enough. Theres one mission left, stop Barkley. Force Hurts to beat you. Live with the results.
@broncoselway I'm old enough to remember when having the better run game and D meant your were the favorite. But sadly as for long as I could remember the Eagles were never the team with the better run game and D and the Eagles were almost always the underdog. Somehow now that its the Eagles they are still the underdog and while usually underdogs are treated as plucky, and the hero of so many movies, somehow these Eagles while being the underdogs are also the villains in the way of Kelce-Swift fairy tale ending. I wouldn't have it any other way.
WAS +6 Gut call here. All logic says PHI easily controls the trenches, and Carter and Barkley dominate in an easy Eagles victory...but WAS has been proving me wrong all season. Also, I don't fully trust Sirianni/Hurts in this spot. WAS comes up one miracle short of the SB but cover. PHI 31 WAS 26
KC -2 Good-guy Josh Allen finally beating the villainous Chiefs is a solid narrative, but there is no more profitable narrative than KC in the SB a win away from a three-peat. Big game from Xavier Worthy, and Mahomes outperforms Allen. KC 27 BUF 23
No bets. Just gonna sit back and enjoy. GL to all.
I'm not as concerned about the Jurgens injury since Dickerson was a top center in college and could easily slide over to take his spot and the loss of Daron Payne negates the Commanders advantage anyway.
For the Commanders, however, the injury to Cosmi is brutal since it kills a potential advantage they might've had with Nakobe Dean being out. Jayden Daniels will be forced into passing from the pocket a lot where he'll have to deal with Jalen Carter vs a backup guard.
UPDATE: Benford apparently traveled with the team to KC. Not 100% on this, but I don't think a concussed player can travel unless they've already been cleared by an independent neurologist.
Aside from the Det/Goff crumble, the past 6 weeks have been amazing $wise (low 4-figures 5 out of 6 weeks). I wish I could say its all profit, but I got worked in weeks 2 & 3 as well as -12U on ATL not making the playoffs+wins. Hindsight, I should've put more on LAR > 6.5 midseason when I posted. I love this hobby, continue to learn and look forward to 2025.
I'm w/ Walt on PHI this week. Easily the best D, O-line & RB left out of the 4. Isnt that what wins championships? They're the fav to win the SB but what good are stats this deep in the season? For the record, I put a small hedge on WAS to win it all at 7-1 to offset my PHI teasers. However, I feel like its PHI all the way since Vegas has them above KC.
PHIs at home for the 5th straight game w/ this being Commanders 4th roady in a row. Quinn, Wagner, Armstrong, Luvu & Chinn have held the D together. BUT injuries (WAS RT vs Carter- Daniels love to roll right) + Mailata (Armstrong gets stuffed) + Igbinoghene vs Smith & Barkley = this is PHIs game to lose. Hurts is a small concern, but as long as he doesnt blow it I dont see PHI losing.
7.8U PHI teased to 0 (mixed w Ohio St W, Buf +8 & a few others)
BUF @ KC Just saw a stat I need to verify... Josh Allen 4-1 vs KC reg, 0-3 playoffs. Does Clete hear the public's concern and overcompensate against KC? Does Douglas continue to struggle & Hopkins smoke him? Does Von jump every time Jawaan steps back early to force a flag? Does Pacheco get more than 6 carries? I'm looking forward to watching this one. I heard this is Kelce's last home game so he's going to get peppered. IDK
Mahomes has a 6-5 starting record in games that were officiated by Blakeman. That’s his second-worst win percentage (.545) among 20 referees The Bills have an 11-7 record (.611) in their 18 games with Blakeman as the referee. Notice it does say Allen like the Mahomes stat.
Good stuff. Agree with you on PHI - they're built to win in the playoffs. The Nakobe Dean injury doesn't even worry me too much, as Oren Burks is a solid, playoff-tested backup that only needs to hold down the fort on run downs. The versatility of Baun and DeJean also fills in a lot of blanks in the middle of the field.
The Sam Cosmi injury is a killer. It takes the WAS O-line from "iffy" to "weakness" at the worst possible time.
Honestly, the only way I see WAS winning is if Hurts lays an egg and Daniels has an even higher level in him...a transformative level that allows him to just drag a mediocre cast to a championship.
As for BUF/KC, the Bills definitely have the superior run game/O-line. (Pacheco came back too early for KC. He's not right at all.) KC will have to pass to beat BUF. While Kelce and Worthy should have no problems getting loose in the middle of the field, I wonder if KC's O-line will hold up against BUF pass-pressure that's running hot.
@Baird Great observation about J. Daniels loves to roll right. The Eagles D must make an effort to keep him to the left side of the field when he rolls out.
@Baird I read the ESPN article today concerning the officiating. Clete Blakeman has been the referee for 12 Chiefs games since Mahomes was drafted in 2017. KC is 6 - 6 in those games. Blakeman's regular-season crew led the NFL with 18.1 flags per game, but it's worth noting that Blakeman himself only threw 3 flags for RTP, tied for 2nd fewest in the NFL. It appears Blakeman isn't Mahomes' friend.
Making officiating part of the handicapping process is a bad idea. There are so many complexities affecting the outcome of a game, that the quality and influencee of the officiating overall would seem impossibly difficult to calculate. TMI IMO.
@Nagurski : I would tend to agree with you about not trying to Handicap the referees. It's not like the NBA where there are only 3 on the floor and serious fans know their tendencies as well as their names. I believe there are 8 [ or more ] officials for NFL playoff games and the Head Referee seldom calls the penalties with the exception of roughing the passer. The other officials pretty much labor in obscurity - does one referee [ back judge for example ] tend to call more pass interference or 'tend to let the boys play' ? After each quarter these referees switch with the field position meaning they are in each team's backfield for half the game.
I don't know if any teams have a coach that monitors all NFL referees - grading them on the number of calls and frequency the penalties are called. In baseball, professional handicappers keep grades and charts on umpires when they work home plate - lists are accumulated of umpires that call more/less strikes or balls. If at the end of the year one umpire has a 13-3 record of games going over the total and also called less strikes than balls it would be easy to classify the umpire as an over umpire. I believe most teams keep charts on all the umpires so no team really has a significant advantage. Whether the individual teams do an effective job of communicating this information to the players is debatable when you look at the batting statistics for most players. Also, all players when batting react to the pitch location according to their individual strike zone. They don't change their batting style each game because of a scouting report. The coach's can provide charts to the batters showing zones or locations that the umpire calls a higher percentage of strikes [ low and outside for example ] but most batters seldom adjust to this. However, the top Managers can make significant adjustments by knowing an umpire's tendency to call more balls - he can give more take signals, or if he knows the umpire calls more balls, he can call less steals and make the pitchers throw more pitches and wear out the other team's bullpens.
Instead of trying to handicap the referees in the playoffs, I would pay more attention to the coach's. Is there a reason that Sean Payton's teams always seem to over achieve or that Matt Eberflus's teams don't know how to win close games ? I think we all know the answer. In the final 2 matchups Reid is the obvious best Head Coach but how would you rate the other 3 ? Quinn took an overachieving team to the Super Bowl [ Atlanta ] but blew the big lead and game against Brady and never seem to recover from that fiasco. Is this his year of vindication ? Sirianni can be strange but has an excellent record and took one team to the Super Bowl and lost a lead late to the Chiefs although he received little criticism for his team losing ? Sean McDermott has a career 86-45 overall record but always seems to come up short ? If history repeats itself, it would suggest that the Chiefs have the best chance to advance to and win the Super Bowl, but I don't think the gap between these head coaches is that huge this year and I wouldn't count on it for handicapping purposes. If you think one coach is significantly better, that is an angle to consider. Good luck
I feel better about my PHI Eagles pick now that Jalen Hurts looks better. However, Cam Jurgens, the Center has a back injury. DNP = Wed., DNP = Thurs., Limited = Fri. If he's unable to play Sunday or taken out of the game then Landon Dickerson will move to C. and they'll bring in Tyler Steen at OLG. That's concerning.
Internet meme humor to "fascist!" is quite the extrapolation. May want to tone the hysterics down - it doesn't seem to help on Election Day.
Woody Guthrie - aside from being an unbearably boring musician - was an unabashed Stalinist. The same Joseph Stalin whose kill count makes every historic fascist look like a rank amateur.
If you want an actual anti-fascist band with some giddyup, I recommend Stiff Little Fingers.
@Mr. Bitter - appreciate the Stiff Little Fingers recommendation. Never heard of them, but always looking for something new. I've tried to trace punk back to origins (Beattles "Helter Skelter" from '68 seems like one of the oldest since its not their usual pop sound), but anything 70's/early 80's peaks my interest.
Check out "Death... for the whole world to see" if you havent. Some brothas in Detroit back in 1971 when Motown was big decided to play garage rock. Very simple stuff, but unique for the time.
Death are great. Keep On Knocking is a gem. Death...Stooges...MC5...Bob Seger System...lotta good stuff was coming outta Motown back in the day.
I always found it surprising that it was McCartney - and not Lennon - who wrote Helter Skelter. John seemed the more piss 'n' vinegar-type of the two. Helter Skelter was quite the departure for Paul; most of his tunes had that crooner, even vaudevillian vibe. Still, I think Helter Skelter's sound is more heavy than punk.
For me, the earliest and most obvious foreshadowing to the late '70s punk sound and spirit was My Generation ('65). Aggressive, super-loud, super-simple riff...manic drumming...snotty, kinda nihilistic lyrics...even purposely stuttering vocals to add another layer of offensiveness.
Missing a key detail. Chiefs pass defense fell off a cliff after Jaylen Watson injury, with Mcduffie the only elite corner covering WR1. We have two top corbers now. And Conner is elite in run support and can shut down Allens runs. Rapp injury really hurts Buffalo. Milano wont be 100% regardless. Chiefs have hungry veterans in Hopkins and Hunt. This us Kelce last home game as a Chief. Expect a show from him a Mahomes as a proper send off gift.
Good points here. Middle-of-the-field coverage is a weakness for BUF, especially if Rapp can't go. Bernard, Milano and D. Williams all have PFF coverage grades below 40.0 and the safety position is a problem.
Games between these 2 teams over the last few years have been compelling. Buffalo tends to win in the regular season and KC in the playoffs.
That will change this year. The Bills defensive injury problems earlier this year are now much better with the return of stellar players in LBs Milano & Bernard along with one of the league's best slot corners in Taron Johnson.
Josh Allen (under the tutalage of OC Joe Brady) is using all of his RBs, TEs, and WRs in a ball-control offense while still having his cannon arm if the safties play up (not to mention his great running ability). It will be a close game, but Buffalo will prevail. We will all will be watching a Bills - Eagles Super Bowl.
@42yardline I filled out an ESPN Pigskin Pick'em Playoff bracket that gave me two choices. I busted the WC round due to some upsets, but for the NFC, I picked the PHI Eagles for both choices. The AFC, my first choice was BUF, second choice: KC. I believe Josh Allen is a better QB this year and will win this time around.
I completely agree with you, Walter. The Bills are the slightly better team, however, the officiating worries me. Clete Blakeman has made several controversial calls that cost me a bet. It also seems like every time I bet against Mahomes, he finds a way to win the game. I'll have to think about this one.
I gotta agree with your skepticism. I've always chalked up conspiratorial NFL takes to sour grapes over a team's success, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore or explain away the kid gloves treatment KC gets from the refs in the playoffs.
The Mahomes/RTP calls are ridiculous. I've heard the "they're just hyper-vigilant about protecting QBs" argument, but I don't know if I fully buy it. During the last few playoff seasons, KC opponents have drawn 5 RTP penalties. The Chiefs have drawn zero. Mahomes automatically gets the flag when he is obviously baiting and barely grazed by tacklers. Every time. He knows he's getting that flag. Yet a helpless Jared Goff takes a vicious shot square in the facemask in the immediate vicinity of two refs and...nothing. I can only speculate whether it's happening consciously or subconsciously, but the refs favor Mahomes.
The penalty timing and type is suspect, too. Drive-extending and non-reviewable almost every time. Then there's there's the absurdly generous spots for KC...short spot for opponents...regular "blind eye" no-calls (KC offsides on HOU FG attempt that everyone in the stadium saw but the refs, etc.)...it almost has to be factored into handicapping a KC game at this point.
BAL or KC vs. PHI has been my Super Bowl pick for a few months now, but even if I liked BUF, I don't think I could pull the trigger with the way KC games are getting called.
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Saquan Barkley and Jalen Carter have been the best offensive and defensive players this postseason. They're both in a lather. However, I could see Mahomes and Chris Jones stepping up to remind everyone that they're still the best at their respective positions. As another commenter said: It's a toss up.
As with any toss up game, I'm looking for that one weakness that tips the scales. Some are predicting that the inexperience of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be that exploitable weakness, but Vic Fangio consistently puts them in the best positions for success and both have performed like Pro Bowl vets all season. I don't see why that would stop now.
The Eagles are the more balanced team. There are no glaring weaknesses to exploit. I'm guessing that KC's ineffective run game and iffy O-line catches up to them. (Specifically the gross Carter vs. Caliendo mismatch and the not-exactly-nimble OT duo of Joe Thuney/Jawaan Taylor vs. the speed and bend of Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith.)
PHI 23 KC 21
No way I'm betting this game, as I could be underestimating Reid/Mahome's three-peat motivation. There's also the possibility that penalties/turnovers go KC's way and the game ends with a Kelce walk-off TD, immediately followed by his retirement announcement and proposal to Taylor Swift. (I'm only half-kidding.)
GL to those taking the plunge.