While we're waiting until next week for Walter's SB picks, I guess I'll go first. I expect this will be a field goal game, so I'm a bit surprised Seattle is -5.
I'll take the Seahawks on the money line, and I'm leaning slightly on the game being under 45.5 points.
Many of this year's playoff games have been close, and I'm hoping that trend will continue. Good luck to you all, but most of all enjoy this game - we won't see another until September.
LAR at SEA really comes down to if you think LAR seeming drop in play is real...they peaked early...or not versus if you think SEA's strong finish was the sign of a team getting better, or just variance. I'm leaning on the LAR peaked early, SEA got better, side but can easily imagine being proven wrong here. Great matchup for sure.
Meanwhile, I think Stidham comes in and plays like its the Casino's money and the result is they win outright. Good luck to all. Stay within your means.
Past season results mean nothing, Brady and Elway are long retired.
I'm hoping for another close playoff game - but I just don't see it. Stidham hasn't played in 2 years, and he has predominately been a career backup in the NFL. If he can hold Denver to just a 7 point loss it will be a big feather in his cap.
I believe it will be a 10-14 point NE victory. By the way, its now Monday night and the Patriots are favored by 5.5 points. Watch that spread continue to rise as the week goes on.
It is at 5.5 WTH are you talking about? Broncos just won their Superbowl beating the Bills. (with refs help) The luck is about to run out with your team. Better get Uncle Rico in to save the day!
@broncoselway Your comparison of the Broncos vs Patriots playoff record needs perspective. You're stating games that were played in 1987, 2006, 2014 and 2016. That's completely irrelevant to the teams playing today. The Broncos home record is 9 - 1 (With Bo Nix), however the Patriot's road record is 8 - 0. The big difference will be Jarrett Stidham vs Drake Maye so I'm betting on New England.
@broncoselway If Bo Nix wasn't injured, you might be right. However, Stidham is starting and if he was as good as you believe his is, he'd be a QB1 with the Patriots, Raiders or some other NFL team. I play the Moneyline and was 67.2% for the season, 4 - 2 in the W/C Round and 4 - 0 in the DIV Round. Good luck following Walt's picks.
@42yardline I agree. Walt's prediction is NE 23, DEN 20. Right now, the Patriots D is better than the Broncos. I'm predicting this game will be something like NE 27, DEN 10. BTW - Does anyone know why the "Parent Comment Deleted" is showing up in the comments?
You will notice that Parent Comment Deleted always refers to Broncoselway. My guess is that if you don't agree with him he responds with inappropriate language that Walter deletes so that his website is not filled with profanity by idiots.
Walter, I enjoy your site. But I have to wonder why you are still betting on games that, after magic ending after magic ending this season, appear to be as legit as Pro Wrestling.
This thought has come to me more than once but I can't tell how bad it is. I think most of the time the fields are tilted a bit but I'm not convinced the outcomes are fixed. There isn't a need for them to outright fix the final outcomes given the play the point spread gives them. 'them' being some combination of those who want best for the league and ratings and the biggest sportsbooks.
Since most of us don't bet in-game, I wish you would separate the computations between in-game and pregame. It is disheartening to take a bath on your picks, only to have you say, "But I was awesome in-game!" When we take a bath, we want to think you are asking for the soap, as well. Long-time reader.
@broncoselway…he did it! Walt did it! He won a playoff game with the pats. Now if he can win the rams that would be 2 in a row and thats what we call a winning streak! Is he back?
Has walt won a playoff game yet? Its actually pretty impressive…its hard to lose every game. Trying picking the loser in every game, you have to get lucky once in a while, right? I am kind of shocked…
The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.
SEA -7
I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.
Walt's take away from the Broncos Packers game isn't the same as mine. At the beginning of that game I remember the Broncos getting into the Packers faces about something. They strike me as a 'mean' team. Its not my favorite look in sports but usually teams with a streak of mean to them fair well. Enough for me to not want to touch that game.
I do think SF is around because the Eagles offense self-destructed. SEA has shown they won't do that. The number looks on the money though. Wouldn't be surprised if SEA wins by 7 on the dot.
SEA has been so consistent under MacDonald. I thought SEA -7 was on the nose for a bit, but then I figured that SEA beat SF by 10 in Frisco, and now SEA is rested and at home. Also: SEA gets back Cross, while SF loses Kittle. Unless Darnold implodes, I just see SEA giving SF a workmanlike beating.
RJ Harvey sure doesn't run mean. He runs tentatively and inefficiently. I don't think DEN will be able to fully take advantage of BUF's greatest weakness.
@Mr. Bitter Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold was added to the injury report Thursday and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s divisional playoff game against San Francisco with an oblique injury..
Sound logic on your Saturday Divisional pcks, I agree. Also, your Jets have some money to spend and the need is there- should the Jets trade for A.J. Brown or do you think he would be reading too much Grisham and Baldacci while on the bench?
AJ Brown wouldn't be able to deal with being WR2 in NY. First things first: Our inevitable overpay for Malik Willis or trade for Mac Jones or Kyler Murray.
Josh Allen is a beast in the playoffs. Great playoff games so far this weekend. But Lawrence was no match for Allen (although it was a back and forth game). Lawrence at home threw 2 picks while Allen completed 80% with no picks.
Allen has said he wants to play for a very long time. I'm sure his future opponents don't want to hear that. Get him a couple of good receivers (or even one) and the Bills will be a major player for quite a few years to come.
If anyone is going to do the smoking its the red-hot Josh Allen. Bo Nix vs, Allen - are you kidding me?? Walter said it best- Denver barely wins against weak opponents - he picked Buffalo for 8 units in this weekend's Divisional games.
I'll bet you the world famous Buffalo wings against whatever Denver is known for (unbreathable air) ?
Hate to be boring but I'm going with all the favorites on the money line this coming wildcard weekend. Also, Houston is a late Christmas gift at -2.5. They should win easily by at least a touchdown.
Just my view, but I see no value in factoring stats from previous seasons to make picks on what is going on this season. The past is the past.
Don't mean to knock you for picking Pitt over Hou in the Wildcard round, but Pitt's Monday night record of 38-10 over the years is not a valid reason to pick them - this year is this year.
Just one whiff ATS so far this weekend, and -of course - it was my lone money game. (Thanks, Eagles. Jesus.) I'm with Walt tonight and like PIT to win SU.
I know PIT should have lost to BAL. I know about Anderson and Hunter screaming off the EDGE. I know about Stingley and Lassiter at the boundaries. The thing is - and as Walt described - the PIT offense will be attacking the HOU LBs and safeties with quick shots to Gainwell and the TEs...and the HOU LBs and safeties can be had in coverage. (Especially To'oTo'o, a miserable coverage LB.)
I'm not sold on the Texans, and this is a spot (home dogs, MNF, getting disrespected a lil' bit-type game) where PIT traditionally cashes. Unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will drag HOU into a low-scoring brawl in which the Steelers and their formidable front seven will gain confidence by the minute. PIT by a Boswell FG.
PHI -3, I got this earlier in week and pounded it. SF is beat up and got physically beaten last Sunday - down 2 more LBs and others - I mean is Purdy ok vicious last play hit. PHI basically had a week off and players coming back.
I do like LAR but -10 is much. I did bet FT/HalfTime LAR though with PHI ML.
@iEatCrayons I have fears of the Eagles offense going 3 and out for half the game or so while the 49ers slowly figure out the Eagles defense. But maybe I'm a week early on what seems to be the inevitabe ending to the Eagles' season.
PHI's problems are nothing the return of Lane Johnson can't cure. (PHI 18-28 in games Johnson hasn't played.)
I'm with IEatCrayons - PHI is rested and should TCB. With the loss of Tatum Bethune, the 'Niners are down to practice-squadders Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow at LB. The injury-ravaged SF front seven will be dominated by the PHI O-line.
I hear you... i fully agree that PHI offense is bad but my opinion they will (slightly) turn it up - Hurts/Barkley running more on a backup LB team.
Now for SF - williams and pearsall not practicing. Is Kittle fully healthy? Is Purdy? Yikes. Remember PHI held Buf@Home for 12 pts.. Buf scored an AVG of 31.6 in last 5 games outside of vs PHI.
@WFDevTeam --- if this isn't your best bet for weekend, what is your best bet? Curious...
As I'm an Eagles fan I almost never would choose their game as the one I like the most. I do like in Walt's analysis how he notes the 49ers offense may be overrated based on what it can do against weaker defense. Defense is a place where its easy to underrate its impact. Good to be on the side that has the edge there.
I feel best about the Jags. A team on the rise against what feels like a known commodity. But seems like the public is already aware of this.
For the record I don't gamble. I participate in the FadeBackContset and am content simply making predictions and seeing how I do. The league has so many unpredictable results some of which only seem to make sense when you look at the line. Some of which are injuries in the game type stuff that there is no way to account for it. On top of the players having good games and bad games.
The Rams game feels good to me. I now the spread is big but I can't see LA easing up here unless they get up by 20 and even then I could see stafford doing enough to keep Carolina out of reach
@iEatCrayons It seemed like Hurts was just improvising out there at times due to bad play calling. Game plan was right to lean on the run but when they had to pass they looked lost. Patullo is definitely gone the offseason.
#1 reason not to take teams with with to much money on them. That game was controlled by the refs. Everytime Eagles would get going they were getting hit with a holding call. Then the PI late in the game was BS. Just my take.
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen.
Jags are a solid home team and the Bills struggle on the road. Plus Bills OC Joe Bradley has been talking to teams about head coaching positions. I remember Ben Johson doing the same last year during the playoffs and the Lions got embarrased.
I'm not sold on the Bills or anything, but Allen is beast in the playoffs when healthy. And I like BUF's O-line/running game better than JAX's. My point with my original post about JAX was that their level of competition since their bye may have as much to do with their winning streak as Jakobi Meyers and Cole Van Lanen. Talk that they'll come out of the AFC seems a bit much, especially with all the drops at WR and Brian Thomas Jr. still MIA.
@Mr. Bitter I get the concern but the Jaguars run defense is legit because of Devin Lloyd and the Bills have been a more run-oriented team this season. The Bills receivers vs Jaguars secondary is a wash. The main reason for optimism with the Jaguars is Liam Coen. The team has fully bought in to him and he has looked like a smart coach so far.
I kinda have agree here. Not saying Jax Run D isn't good but there a good Risk/Reward on Cook on this game. Jax hasn't faced good QB/RB combo since the bye, atleast nothing close to Allen/Cook. They played bad QBs (as Mr.Bitter noted) and then blew out bad teams, that is a big contribution to their leading Run D.
Tough betting today... but do think Cook will Cook. Cook +80 RushYds, +105 Combo Yards, +18.5 attempts (Also got Barkley +80 RushYds)
Coen was a great hire. But this is his first playoff game, and I can't shake the feeling that the Jags peaked too early - and against a cupcake stretch of schedule.
I love the young, foundational pieces along the JAX front seven, but Allen/Cook present a challenge unlike JAX has seen.
This is not to say I'm confident that the Bills will win. It's all predicated on Allen being healthy, and that's not a given. I also don't like a BUF defense that may need to put an extra man in the box just to help their weak LBs vs. Etienne, which would open up the JAX passing game. Hell, I don't even like that JAX has such a pronounced advantage at kicker.
All I know is this: If healthy, Allen could easily put the Bills on his back. The Bills went over 26.5 points in all three of their playoff games last year, and have done so in 7 of their last 9 playoff games. The Jags haven't had to worry about a QB that can put up those kinda points for an eternity.
In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills' defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home).
Thanks. I figured the Bears would keep the 4th quarter magic going vs. GB. That ride is over, though. The Bears are going to get Saquan Barkleyed to death next weekend, especially with T.J Edwards OUT.
I get the splits and I don't trust the BUF defense at all. (Although news that Van Lanen is OUT may create more wiggle room for Rousseau and Bosa.) I just envision a healthy Allen and Cook going wild and simply outscoring JAX. Non-bet, though.
Jacksonville gave that game away. They could have run the ball on the outside the whole game. They were picking up 8 yards a carry on the outside. Also after Allen was hurt they never pressured him. I would of put pressure on him every play. Oh well onto the next one.
a bit premature. 4 games to go. No matter what its a bit surprising both games went the way the betting public's way yesterday. Let's see how today goes.
I think the Bears game is a trap. I don't get why the Bears aren't favored. Or that the line hasn't moved to favor them. There are games with lines that feel obvious to me and then in retrospect felt like a trap. Something is up here.
I with Walt on the Rams. That line makes sense. Wouldn't surprise me if it ends up a push at 10. But I think the Rams make a statement they should be the favorites to win it this year. Not the Seahawks.
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While we're waiting until next week for Walter's SB picks, I guess I'll go first. I expect this will be a field goal game, so I'm a bit surprised Seattle is -5.
I'll take the Seahawks on the money line, and I'm leaning slightly on the game being under 45.5 points.
Many of this year's playoff games have been close, and I'm hoping that trend will continue. Good luck to you all, but most of all enjoy this game - we won't see another until September.