I don't think we have to worry about tge Chargers "looking ahead" given the muddled AFC Wild Card picture. They have a similar record to Buffalo/KC/Houston/Jacksonville/Pittsburgh and can't afford to slip, especially an "easy" game
Vikings, 4 units (loss): Wow. J.J. McCarthy sucks. I thought the Vikings would have a huge edge with their receivers against Chicago’s injury-ridden secondary, but it doesn’t matter when the quarterback is absolute garbage. I can’t bet the Vikings again unless they’re large underdogs or battling another terrible quarterback.
PIT +3 CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU.
BAL -13.5 Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.
DET -13.5 Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.
NE -7.5 Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.
TEN +12.5 Coming off the Rams and with Darnold revenge game vs. MIN on the horizon, I don't like this spot for SEA. TEN D controls the SEA run game while Ward kills clock w/short stuff to TEs and RBs vs. SEA's backup LBs. Titans lose but keep it close.
MIN +6.5 Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.
IND +3.5 The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.
ARI +2.5 Like the home dog here. JAX is down some cornerstone players for this one and their O-line is abysmal.
CLE +3.5 Rock bottom game for the Raiders. Sanders isn't an NFL QB, but I'm guessing a healthy dose of Judkins and CLE's pronounced advantage in the trenches will be enough to hide him vs. the horrid Raiders. CLE SU. Myles Garrett gets 3+ sacks and Geno Smith commits more TOs than Sanders.
ATL +2 Wouldn't touch this game. Just taking the points.
DAL +3.5 Love the good vibes/shaky vibes dynamic here, along with divisional rivalry/must-win for DAL angles. Prescott is dialed in and the Cowboys can score with anybody, while I love the defensive facelift on the fly with Clowney, Williams and Wilson, along w/the return of Hooker and Overshown. I anticipate a legit Wild Card push for DAL. Cowboys by an Aubrey FG.
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Jerry O •
0 Posts (107 )
• 9 day(s) 11 hour(s) ago- hide
Might want to look at the pitt record @ chicago. BEAR DOWN
After rereading I see the confusion... DET 2.2 YPC = loss vs GB WAS 3 YPC = loss vs GB CLE 5.2 = win CAR 5.2 = win
My thought process was/is it doesnt matter if your team sucks (CLE/CAR) or has stud RBs (DET) if you can run the ball vs GB then you'll prob win. Obviously, Barkley's 2.7 tonight says different.
I see what you are saying. I feel it is more they play down to their competition. We will see against the Giants this week. Giants are decimated by injuries and you can't trust Wilson at QB. That being said most teams play harder for a new coach, and that line opened at 8.5 so their is already money coming in on the Giants
"I feel it is more they play down to their competition"
Bingo.
With their inconsistency and injuries quietly piling up on offense, GB is giving me FADE vibes for the next two weeks. ("Easy" game @ NYG followed by vs. MIN in a game where the Vikings could be in must-win mode.)
Wow Walt you are not very good at handicapping you should give it up. The only good thing about you is your stats and information but your picks and power rankings suck! Your addiction to gambling is very bad you should seek help I feel sorry for your family.
NE -13 Walt handicapped this one pretty thoroughly, and I'm going big on the Pats. Now that the Jets have dinged their draft positioning with that predictable, fluky win vs. CLE, they'll get their asses handed to them by NE. Without Garrett Wilson, this isn't a fair fight. But will NE be focused? In Vrabel I trust.
Expect another huge game from TreVeyon Henderson vs. NY's saloon-door D-line. Henderson is perfectly situated for a dominant three-game run vs. NYJ, CIN and NYG.
I am not a NYG fan (thank God), but their decision makers clearly don't have a clue. Dabell lasted an eternity, three and a half years, compared to his 3 predecessors. Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmer, and Joe Judge all lasted only 2 years or less.
I think we can all agree that this is no way to run an NFL francise. Not being familiar with the Giants situation, I can only assume that the Mara family gave final approval to all of the hirings above.
They should hire a highly qualified and successfully proven football executive to become their President to correct the mess that the Mara family has created. Only then will there be a glimmer of hope for the future of the franchise,
My faith in TB was them getting healthier and bringing the #4 YPC run D... then Henderson went for 147 & 2 tds. Cant count on that every weekend.
My main thesis was the schedule... last 4 NE beat NO, TEN, CLE & ATL (not impressive, but still 4 straight wins in public eye) + TNF vs div opp next + TB coming off a bye.
I always appreciate your feedback, but give me that setup again and I'll gladly put $ on it.
The "Patriots haven't beaten anybody" angle felt too mainstream for me. They were yacking about it on ESPN. Vrabel probably put it up on the billboard.
But you're right - nine times out of ten the Bucs are the right side. That's why I didn't touch NE even though I could see them winning. I had a hunch Henderson would erupt. (Just a hunch, even in the face of the TB run D.) Thankfully, I put him in my fantasy lineup (Chase Brown-BYE) after he'd been languishing on my bench all season.
Week 1 & 2 2024 were worse,
but I havent lost that much in over a year.
I looked back on why
Det got killed at home in a div game vs a semi rook QB, but Goff does
fold to pressure so bravo BF D.
Ind vs Pit? idk - good on ya for 6
turnovers. Just do that every week and you'll win the SB. KC? Again, idk. I teased KC +4 in a big game = should've
been money, but I get it... Buf 5-0 in last 5 reg season vs KC and KC 4-0 vs Buf in last playoff games.
Look ahead leans...
LVR @ Den = Tucker Props Parker Washington props AZ @ SEA - AZ coming off a big win. I've been high on Brissett, but now that mighty mouse is on IR I think the pressure builds. No run O is tough in Seattle.
NE @ TB - I want to love TB assuming health comes their way. NE has MIA on TNF so TB is the obvious play off a bye. Non-conf helps too.
PIT @ LAC - under Bal @ Min - teasing Min +10 *Min 4 @ home? Something is off with this one. I had BAL winning 6 of 7 after the bye and this was their loss in my mind. But Min @ home teased to +10 = ARE YOU KIDDING? Ok, Min big div win vs Det + Bal, div & @div next. Sandwich AFC in between 3 div games is a big deal. I'm worried BF plays a weak D in a nothing game... Dont play a weak D vs Lamar and Henry!
I want to love CLE w NJ getting rid of their good players, but this has that "everyone show up" feel for NJ. I teased CLE +3.5 a bit , but I'm being cautious.
Lastly, as a Rams fan I love them, but my bookie hasnt posted the line.
Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.
You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.
ATL +6 Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE.
CAR -5.5 No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR.
I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes.
CHI -4.5 I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win.
HOU +1 This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light.
BUF -9.5 Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game.
NYJ +2 Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do.
BAL -4 Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't.
Ind @ Pit: lets quickly look at PIT's schedule... Wk1 - Beat NYJ by 2, but they were losing by 15 and had to score 17 in the 4th to win. Should have lost to Jets! Wk2 - Worked by Sea Wk3 - NE beat themselves w turnovers (a few in the endzone/redzone). PIT should have lost 2-1 at this point but could easily be 0-3 Wk4 - Won vs Min in Spain (Wentz went for 350 & 2tds) Wk5 - Won vs Gabriel in his 1st start Wk6 - Lost to Flacco Bengals (342-3) Wk7 - Lost (beat up by) GB @ home on SNF PIT COULD EASILY BE 2-5 w/ wins vs Wentz in Spain and Gabriel's 1st start.
*In all fairness, Ind plays in Germany next and then a bye. Das German game is vs the non-conference Falcons. I think PIT is a bigger deal regarding playoff seeding.
I'm breaking down the games and can make points for/against most of the close ones. I dont like old trends because of how much the game changed, but recent trends in the right context have meaning. For example... Min is 1-9 vs Det in the last 10 games and the Det home dynamic shows a few double digit wins. Also, Det has won the last 5 in a row vs Min... and now Min is starting a green QB who's been hurt more than he's played. Branch is back, its a div game and Det will be rocking. I dont see how Min wins.
ATL -7 NON-BET I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.
ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover.
CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.
A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.
BUF -7 NON-BET I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.
CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.
For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.
SF +2.5 LIKE This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate?
CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)
@Mr. Bitter - I was going to hit Vegas tomorrow morning and go big on on teasers featuring ATL -1.5, but Im backing off. I have a gut feeling MIA makes it a game. Other than Diablo out, I really dont know why I have a bad feeling - especially since this is MIA's 2nd road game and they have BAL next on TNF. Bijan should ball out. IDK - I'm listening to whatever's giving me pause.
Good to see your seeing the same thing
I'm w you on Buf/Car too. I'm still going to hit small teasers on both sides, but feel like CAR has a small chance to win outright.
I like NE for the same reason I hit CLE last week... of the 4 sides I like their D vs Gabriel the best. Judkins has been carrying the team but not vs NE @ home (#3 run D @ 3.3 YPC). I like NE to win in a low scorer like 20-10, although it could get ugly and end up 27-3.
Yeah, just a hunch on MIA/ATL, and Cousins starting doesn't change anything. I feel like MIA keeps it close in this one, then gets thoroughly demolished by BAL in Week 9. I envision Achane and Bijan taking turns blasting off, and Waddle is way overdue for some numbers, assuming MIA is smart enough to work him in the slot and away from A.J. Terrell.
I might change my mind on CHI/BAL. The Bears are down to practice squad CBs. My main concerns are that Lamar isn't fully healthy, and that CHI has the weapons to keep up if the game becomes a race to 35, which is quite possible.
@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I don't post very often and when I do post my pick tends to backfire. I also seldom bet GB games as I'm a died in the wool Bear fan and hate GB, BUT In my opinion Pitt. getting a field goal at home is an automatic bet. Tomlin's record as an underdog [ especially at home, highly motivated, and coming off a loss ] is impossible to ignore. With the Ravens struggles, and no other decent team in their division, the Steelers should cruise to the division title. I expect a close game and getting a field goal is huge [ although 3 1/2 would be better ] . Good luck with all the other games !
I remember when this comment section was a gold mine of old head degenerate gamblers offering up angles aplenty. Not sure why they all bailed, but I would like to see that happen again. Lately it seems like it's me and Baird doing all the heavy lifting, with a few others only jumping in after the fact and piling on when I whiff. (Which happens often because that's the nature of this beast.) Any thoughts or angles you have are appreciated.
The metrics hate the Steelers tonight. Offensive and defensive EPA, success rate, EDP yards per play...it all comfortably favors the Packers. Individual matchups lean Packers too; Parsons vs PIT's OTs (3rd-lowest pass-blocking grade) with Rodgers only QB28 under pressure, Jordan Love top-3 in comp % between the numbers, vs. man coverage, and vs. the blitz (basically custom-built to dissect the PIT defensive scheme), etc.
But then there's Tomlin's 21-7-3 record as a home dog, which is hard to ignore - but I will. Probably somewhat foolishly, I've leaned less and less into trends over the years, preferring to focus on matchups, injuries, etc. The way I look at it, it's like "big deal - now Tomlin will be 21-8-3". GB is also 0-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. Now they'll be 1-4. I like GB. I also like CIN, so cue the media's unrealistic "Flacco will lead the Bengals past the Steelers and into the playoffs" narrative.
McCaffrey's ballin out and Kittle is back to block so SF looks good. Plus Saleh has that young D amp'd up - well at least vs ATL on the road in a letdown game. Penix looked pretty lost outdoors under the bright lights. To top it all off Nico & Kirk are out + Hou's run game is crap so how will they score? SF must be the side...
And then I looked at Hou's D - the front 4 is one of the best, front 7 legit and Lassiter + Pitre lock up the left side. Surprisingly, the only weakness is Stingley. Bourne seems like the only option outside of McCaffrey, but Hou brings #5 run D in terms of YPC @ 3.8 so he may not lay it down like he did vs a Diablo less D.
Hou @ home - lost to a healthy TB team by 1 point and beat Ten 26-0 (not legit; should have been 6-6 at half, but still 26-0). This is only their 3rd home game and I feel like Higgins and Noel show up vs #111 out of #112 CB Stout & Green 42.8 coverage. Lets not forget Schultz 9-10-98 last week.
***The clincher is Huff and Gross-Matos out***
I LOVE teasing the UNDER: 47.5 is so key in a real game, but I dont see this as a real game w/ NFC SF coming off a primetime blowout to play a stuggling AFC team. Neither team hits 20 pts.
You've convinced me. That 'Niners defensive depth chart is looking pretty grim. Like the Lions, SF wears their ability to overcome injuries like a badge of honor - a factor I feel sometimes isn't fully baked into the line for SF and DET - but there comes a point where the hits are too much to overcome. If HOU's offense can't get right in this one...
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