It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.
The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.
I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.
CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13
Week 7 is the Patriots third road game in a row. They have won the first two and it is not common for a team to win all three. Maybe Walt can access some detail on this.
@JRO60 - I tried to do a few simple searches looking back 10 years but some obvious issues emerge with algorithms...
bye week in between 3 road games - count? international "home" game which is really a road game - count?
I guess I could grab all the games over 10 years, narrow columns to simple home vs away and highlight 3 away in a row. Take those and make a pivot table for W/L result on 3rd game. Maybe tomorrow, too hazy tonight.
AI and computers are inherently stupid and require exact specifics which makes it difficult to analyze. Maybe Walt or someone here knows a better way?
FWIW... The last NFL team to win three consecutive road games was the Detroit Lions in the 2024 season
In the Overrated/Underrated page, you list the Denver Broncos as underrated, noting they "could be 6-0." In their write-up against the Giants, however, you call the Broncos "a fraudulent 4-2," choosing to focus on the weak competition in their wins. So which is it??
Look ahead... My main look ahead is CAR. They surprised ATL in the home opener, beat the amazing Dolphins and ran over Dallas' tough run D. Ok, I'm being a smartass but they have the junky Jets coming up and if they win their 1st road game then all the talking heads are going to be praising them @ 4-3... And then the schedule gets real. I'm all for playing the win total under if they beat NYJ.
CAR < win total IF they beat NYJ and things get inflated (even if slightly inflated)
Side note... I just heard Rattler get questioned and explain why he was benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. Maybe he brings a little extra this week because of that? But CHI just played on the road in the rain so they'll be ready at home in the rain; NOleans wont. IDK
PHI vs MIN = no thanks
Finally, I cant wait to watch WAS@DAL (hopefully everyone plays). TB@DET is enticing (Campbell said Alim McNeil "is friggin playin"! Thats awesome! Cant wait! Um, but who on the backend is playing? Also, what TB players are going to suit up? Too many question marks at this time.)
Walt - it sounds like your backing off of prop bets or at least saying "if it wasn't for them...". I think there are some layup props this week so stick w it, but why not add teasers? You used to do 2-gamers and hit - why quit? This week seems tough spread-wise, but teasers look good...
KC -12 to -6 I agree this could easily be a 10-11 pt win and possible backdoor cover, but KC is hitting their stride, feeling confident and playing at home in a div game. They stop the run well which gives LVR limited scoring options. KC will get a big lead and let off. Rice back should be good practice and less than a TD seems $. Aside from Maxx, whats scary from LVR? Answer = not Jeanty or Geno
IND +1.5 to +7.5 Over a TD with the great playing Colts in a conference game = YES. I root for the SD Chargers, but c'mon LA isn't blowing out a stacked Ind team.
Other options... Cle +3.5 I really like your simple breakdown of 4 pieces and CLE's D is by far the best. I think Judkins and Fannin have good games as well as the obv CLE D. As log as Gabriel doesn't blow it, I dont see MIA playing well in the elements vs that D.
ATL +8 SF getting offensive pieces back AND playing at home is scary. ATL came off bye to play a prime time home game and showed up = OBV LETDOWN (plus dome to road). But, Warner out is the final domino on SF's D. ATL should be able to control TOP and keep it close w MVP Bijan & that O-line vs Huff only.
NYG@DEN tease - pick a side. I like DEN to win, but either side is appealing... NYG +13 OR DEN -1 Just remember, NYG switched to Dart (huge get up) & beat LAC on a letdown in NJ. They went on the road in a natural letdown & lost to the winless Saints - lost to the winless Saints. They came back to NJ and beat div rival/SB champ PHI on a short week. See the trend? This is a natural travel away from home letdown spot for NYG with PHI up next. Nix has been junk but if the D can limit the run then Dart will have too much on his shoulders (Bonito leads league in sacks). Wandale has been great, but McMillan is #3 in slot and we arent even bringing up Surtain. I like Tim Patrick Troy Franklin to have a weird stat line... 3-120-2.
Side note - why isnt Lil Jordan on any NYG depth chart? He's the biggest threat.
The Rams are staying in Baltimore this week before going to London. They did a similar strategy in 2017 and 2019 when they played in London and won straight up both times. I'm not worried about jet lag for the team, but it sucks for the few SoCal fans the Rams actually have.
I think you're leaning too hard into pressure numbers in the LAC/MIA matchup. MIA has faced some good O-lines this season, especially at OT. There's enough talent in MIA's EDGE unit (Chubb, J. Phillips, C. Robinson and Judon) to take advantage of LAC's current practice squad situation at OT.
"RECAP: I personally don’t care if Murray misses this game. If anything, it gives us more points to work with by selecting the Cardinals."
"THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray missed Wednesday’s practice, causing the spread to move to -7. It sounds like Jacoby Brissett may start this game. I think I’d switch to the Colts if Brissett were to be named the starter."
Why didn't you care about Brissett starting on Tuesday, but do now?
You do realize that ALL of your picks in Week 6 with UNITS are all phuckeen CHALK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WEAK yet again dude. WHY have you gravitated to a PURE CHALK player????
I am a bit confused about the Lions take.. From what I see, they haven't lost anything in the coordinator sacrifice, The Chiefs have lost to good and bad teams already.
I dont think any logical bettor is considering week 1 or 2 even in their strength evaluation in 2025.
The Chiefs might just be bad. The Jags definitely are not good. 4-1 so be it, but they played the reverse Ravens schedule minus the injuries. Luckily for them their division is a weird ass incest dumpster fire and they might actually win it.
Walt is obsessed with "losing coordinators" even though Dan Campbell clearly has proven that it's irrelevant for a top 3 coach in the league. The entire year has been about how bad Detroit was going to regress and he thought he was right after Week 1 and had to eat his words the last 4 weeks. Now it's about discrediting the opponents they've played. Once Det beats KC there will be another reason as to why I'm sure. @jmacphee9
Thats the kind of thing I need to hear cause I dont watch college. Flores > Gabriel should be an easy decision, but Wentz doesnt instill confidence vs Cle's D.
I got 0.5U on a 6-game w/ Min+2.5 just cause Walt sees something - GL
MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen.
One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial.
I have waited 5 years to see these results ! Thanks
chiefs, browns, patriots, eagles, panthers, giants!
all winners ATS!
Great job today