I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.
CAR +10.5
We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.
All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy.
Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense.
LAR 31 CAR 24
CHI +1.5
Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.
Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.
Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.
@Mr. Bitter - Great write-up I teased Jags on the opening +1.5 line to get +7.5 and that felt like a gift. Now that the Bears are +1.5 in a windy home game I feel the same way. Anything can happen but teasing CHI +7.5 is a big money play for me. GL
Regarding CHI, I have similar view about CHI RUN. The weird thing is CHI finished in TOP 5 in 2025 for rushing attempts... past 3 games bottom 4, and also factoring Ben Johnson style, their OL, WR injuries, etc. CHI seem to move away from their run game. I dunno...
I feel CHI will (hope) Run today and win.
My Bets today CHI ML LAR HT/FT + CHI +6.5 Puka +89.5 Yds
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen.
Jags are a solid home team and the Bills struggle on the road. Plus Bills OC Joe Bradley has been talking to teams about head coaching positions. I remember Ben Johson doing the same last year during the playoffs and the Lions got embarrased.
I'm not sold on the Bills or anything, but Allen is beast in the playoffs when healthy. And I like BUF's O-line/running game better than JAX's. My point with my original post about JAX was that their level of competition since their bye may have as much to do with their winning streak as Jakobi Meyers and Cole Van Lanen. Talk that they'll come out of the AFC seems a bit much, especially with all the drops at WR and Brian Thomas Jr. still MIA.
Walter thinks PIT will beat HOU, but I feel the Texans defense will be the difference. Their athleticism and physicality limited opponents to 17.4 PPG (Ranked 2nd) and 277.2 YPG (Ranked 1st). The Texans' D-Line has a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 1.057 combined with 29 Takeaways. The Steelers were lucky to escape with a win against the Ravens by Lamar Jackson being absent until mid 4th quarter and a missed 44-yard FG.
PIT's D-line is pretty good, too. They're just behind HOU in D-line WAR and are the only team with 4 players in PFF's top 30 pressure rankings. HOU's Anderson/Hunter are the best EDGE duo in the NFL, but Watt/Highsmith are up there, too. EDGE3 Herbig would start for some teams, Heyward is playing out of his mind right now and Harmon is coming on. I agree that the HOU DL will be a problem for PIT, but I could see the PIT front - finally healthy -dominating HOU's O-line. Could easily be a low-scoring slop-fest...a game script the Steelers love.
I can't see Rodgers having a good day and Houston's defense has the swagger of a defense that can carry a team to the Super Bowl. But the Steelers are a team I'm wary of. They are consistently inconsistent. Will lose when it seems they shouldn't. Will win when it seem they shouldn't. I'm talking not just this year. Now they haven't made it past the first round since 2017...but like all trends...does that mean they are due to win one? I'm leaving that one alone.
Speaking of trends...C.J Stroud in the cold and PIT's MNF record are more reason to think the Steelers might win SU. Trends are flimsy, but unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will only gain confidence as long as the game is close.
Arthur Smith has Rodgers getting rid of the ball and out to the RBs and TEs so quickly that it might mitigate the damage Anderson/Hunter can do.
The AFC is wide open and there needs to be a feel-good, playoff narrative...why not old man Rodgers making one last playoff run?
PHI -3, I got this earlier in week and pounded it. SF is beat up and got physically beaten last Sunday - down 2 more LBs and others - I mean is Purdy ok vicious last play hit. PHI basically had a week off and players coming back.
I do like LAR but -10 is much. I did bet FT/HalfTime LAR though with PHI ML.
@iEatCrayons I have fears of the Eagles offense going 3 and out for half the game or so while the 49ers slowly figure out the Eagles defense. But maybe I'm a week early on what seems to be the inevitabe ending to the Eagles' season.
PHI's problems are nothing the return of Lane Johnson can't cure. (PHI 18-28 in games Johnson hasn't played.)
I'm with IEatCrayons - PHI is rested and should TCB. With the loss of Tatum Bethune, the 'Niners are down to practice-squadders Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow at LB. The injury-ravaged SF front seven will be dominated by the PHI O-line.
I hear you... i fully agree that PHI offense is bad but my opinion they will (slightly) turn it up - Hurts/Barkley running more on a backup LB team.
Now for SF - williams and pearsall not practicing. Is Kittle fully healthy? Is Purdy? Yikes. Remember PHI held Buf@Home for 12 pts.. Buf scored an AVG of 31.6 in last 5 games outside of vs PHI.
@WFDevTeam --- if this isn't your best bet for weekend, what is your best bet? Curious...
As I'm an Eagles fan I almost never would choose their game as the one I like the most. I do like in Walt's analysis how he notes the 49ers offense may be overrated based on what it can do against weaker defense. Defense is a place where its easy to underrate its impact. Good to be on the side that has the edge there.
I feel best about the Jags. A team on the rise against what feels like a known commodity. But seems like the public is already aware of this.
For the record I don't gamble. I participate in the FadeBackContset and am content simply making predictions and seeing how I do. The league has so many unpredictable results some of which only seem to make sense when you look at the line. Some of which are injuries in the game type stuff that there is no way to account for it. On top of the players having good games and bad games.
The Rams game feels good to me. I now the spread is big but I can't see LA easing up here unless they get up by 20 and even then I could see stafford doing enough to keep Carolina out of reach
Hate to be boring but I'm going with all the favorites on the money line this coming wildcard weekend. Also, Houston is a late Christmas gift at -2.5. They should win easily by at least a touchdown.
I've had BAL since early week at -3, even at -3.5 I take BAL maybe buy the Pts.
PIT offense is ugly w/o DK (and Wash). They need a run game but BAL Run D is good lately and can stack box vs PIT. Added to BAL Run is so much easier to rely on.
AFC North games are always kinda weird, even though I think BAL has a sizeable advantage game can be close so tempered my betting here, although I did bet -6.5 BAL for a few.
That seems to be the consensus. Its a shame I have a bias for aging QBs. I think I'm going to take the points for my FadeBackPick selection but its a case where I clearly know why I'll be wrong if I end up on the wrong side.
The Darnell Washington injury is big. His blocking was crucial to the run game and the passing offense was leaning on him more by the week. But who knows...maybe Freiermuth emerges from exile with a big game.
BAL by a FG feels exactly right, but I worry about Lamar. We keep waiting for the Lamar we all know to show up and it hasn't happened all year. Non-bet for me.
1. That poor BAL K, damn that is rough. 2. Glad CAR got in, that ATL-CAR game was one of the worst officiated game I ever saw. I gotta think back but it was terrible
Justin Jefferson: 53 receiving yards for 1,000 Dawson Knox: $100K with 6 receptions, $100K with 1 TD Hunter Henry: $250K with 5 receptions Stefon Diggs: $500K with 30 yards, another $500K with 130 yards, $500K with 8 catches
I did bet JJ (+66 RecY and Henry (+5/+46 Recs/RecY).
I'll probably also bet ATTD Dawson, and Diggs 60Yrds later today.
With the Falcons coming off a short week and a big, turnover-aided win, I agree that the Saints are the right side. My concern: Without Olave, how are the Saints going to score?
With Saints interior defenders Bresee and Shepherd trending OUT, there's a good chance Bijan and Allgeier will eat well. Who will the Saints lean on to keep up? Juwan Johnson? ATL is 3rd-best vs. tight ends. The ghost of Taysom Hill? Audric Estime? Practice-squadder who could be running into stacked boxes. I like Shough and he should perform well with OROY within reach, but expecting guys like Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis to rise to the occasion feels like a reach.
Side note: Bijan and other Falcons are talking about how they'd like to knock the Bucs out of the playoffs. Could ATL be more motivated than we think?
First of all : Happy New Year's everybody ! Hopefully we can all have a healthy, productive, and enjoyable year in 2026. I confess to being a huge 'homer' for the Chicago Bears. I was delighted last year when they drafted Caleb Williams with the number 1 pick only to see them completely fall apart with the most inept coaching in the NFL. Segue to this year with a top notch coach and it has been a pleasure to watch their games this year. I'm assuming that Johnson figured out that his young, talented QB needed a big physical offensive line and he addressed that in free agency. The Bears played Detroit in Week 2 in a game that saw Detroit healthy and the Bears still working to get their veteran O-Line into a solid unit. The Bears were also coming off a devastating 4th quarter collapse against the Vikings and were on a short week. Not surprisingly the Lions demolished the Bears 52-21. I won't say that the Lions deliberately ran up the score on the Bears, but they didn't take their foot off the accelerator and Campbell's post game comments weren't very flattering about the Bears and his ex-coordinator Ben Johnson. After the game I made the decision that I would only bet the Bears 1 time this year [ didn't want to jinx them ! ] and it would be the last game of the year against the Lions. We have seen the Lions collapse this year [ injuries as well as coaching decisions ] especially down the stretch and do not have anything to play for. In the meantime, the Bears have been consistently good all season [ although the defense has not been good ]. Before the line came out, I expected the Bears to be favored by at least 7 1/2 and was prepared to bet them at that line. The Bears at either 2 1/2 or 3 is my best bet of the year. Why:
1] Even a blind person can see a 'revenge angle' to this game.
2] I won't say the Bears weren't trying to win against the 49ers but the defense called no blitzes against the Niners, and the only trick/gimmick play was the 'hook and Ladder' on the next to last play.
3] What exactly does the Lions have to play for ? This is a solid veteran team that was a Super Bowl contender that can no longer make the playoffs. I'm guessing they are more focused on next week's tee times then giving maximum effort in a useless game.
4] I suggest that if anyone has any doubts, look at Goff's record against the Bears at Soldier Field in late season weather. He is more efficient indoors. Go all the way back to when he was with the Rams on their Super Bowl team that lost to the Bears in December at Soldier field by a score of 15-6.
5] The Lions completely s--t the bed against the Vikings last week when they still had a shot at the playoffs and they have really faltered down the stretch. Why will they suddenly play their best game of the year ?
I also got this as a Top 3 pick this week. I feel like DET OL been toughing it out for the last couple of games and will just sit/barely play. If Amon sits that's a bonus + Burden full practice, moved this into my top 3
Rams vs Falcons does affect seeding. If the Rams win their final two games against the Falcons and Cardinals, they will secure the No. 5 seed. Losing to the Falcons but beating Arizona could drop them to the No. 6 seed if the 49ers beat the Seahawks.
Even though I won like 75% of my picks, I barely won cause too heavy on Half/Full Jax. Oh well... that is gambling life.
I did cash out my LAR as they might now be motivated. Win vs NFC South (Likely - still depends on other games) Lose Vs PHI. (Likely - still depends on other games)
I think they are resting, but ATL is out nevertheless too. Unsure how to bet this game but leaning that LAR doesn't cover -7.5
I'm thinking the same. A lot is being said about Anderson/Hunter vs. that banged-up LAC O-line. More should be said about Mack/Tuipulotu vs. that banged-up HOU O-line.
HOU's showing vs. the Raiders scares me. The Texans can be had vs. the run. If Ashton Jeanty can run all over HOU, so should Omarion Hampton. LAC 20 HOU 17
I got HOU on this one but lightly... main thing 2 things for me is
1. Perryman out and el Woody runs consistently enough to move the chains. 2. Herbert got 4 games of 4+ Sacks (4,5,6,7) and Stroud zero. Also, Herbert 12 INT vs Stroud 6 INT. Both played about the same # of games.
In a Defensive game, these are gonna be the difference, pts off TOs - Hou can Run better to mostly avoid these higher risk situations.
I got Hou ML Hou +6 with 2-3 teasers (like Jax, Cin) Marks 50+ Yds
Yeah, there's a reason Vegas stays in business. Luckily, I had no interest in betting HOU/LAC. Post-Xmas funds, tight lines and all the backup QBs have me taking it easy this week.
Only large play is CAR +7, but apparently Tet McMillan woke up with the flu and is now questionable, so that may be a no-go. Some cabbage on CIN -7.5. All logic says CIN scores at will, but I can't shake the feeling Trey McBride gets three TDs and ARI finds the back door. My fantasy league team is in the championship with Burrow, Chase Brown and Chase starting, so I'm going all in on the Bengals. Small play on TEN as home dogs, too.
Sniffed around PIT -3 (win-and-in), but I think it's priced perfectly and can see CLE relishing the spoiler role. Garrett may go nuclear, while PIT is very banged up and without Metcalf. I don't like that CLE offense without Judkins though.
Henry really got me last night oh well, i was afraid of that but my gambling urge got the best of me. Nevertheless, Willis 40+ yds was a bigger bet, so not all bad.
Sharps on IND - now +5. Damn I really thought it would go the other way. I'm thinking Rivers, Taylor doesn't play a full game esp if down a lot / unsuccessful in 1st half. I didn't increase my already heavy JAX bets but did add
Taylor under 19.5 carries, under 75.5 yds, under 14.5 long rush Rivers under 206.5 yds
The Buffalo game isn't meaningless, regardless of what happens with NE this week. Even if NE wins, if BUF wins both of there last 2 games and NE loses next week, BUF takes the division. And if they take the division in that way and Denver loses next week, BUF actually gets the #1 overall seed. The only reason they wouldn't have something to play for this week is if NE wins and they assume that NE will beat Miami next week. That's not a bad assumption, but it seems crazy to make decisions about who is playing based on an assumption, no matter how good the assumption seems. Of course, Allen's injury could be bad enough that the chance of aggravating it isn't worth it even knowing that sitting him could ruin their chances at the #1 seed, but that's different than saying the game is meaningless to them.
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Saturday Predictions
I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.
CAR +10.5
We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.
All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy.
Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense.
LAR 31 CAR 24
CHI +1.5
Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.
Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.
Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.
CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>
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