Week 1 & 2 2024 were worse,
but I havent lost that much in over a year.
I looked back on why
Det got killed at home in a div game vs a semi rook QB, but Goff does
fold to pressure so bravo BF D.
Ind vs Pit? idk - good on ya for 6
turnovers. Just do that every week and you'll win the SB. KC? Again, idk. I teased KC +4 in a big game = should've
been money, but I get it... Buf 5-0 in last 5 reg season vs KC and KC 4-0 vs Buf in last playoff games.
Look ahead leans...
LVR @ Den = Tucker Props Parker Washington props AZ @ SEA - AZ coming off a big win. I've been high on Brissett, but now that mighty mouse is on IR I think the pressure builds. No run O is tough in Seattle.
NE @ TB - I want to love TB assuming health comes their way. NE has MIA on TNF so TB is the obvious play off a bye. Non-conf helps too.
PIT @ LAC - under Bal @ Min - teasing Min +10 *Min 4 @ home? Something is off with this one. I had BAL winning 6 of 7 after the bye and this was their loss in my mind. But Min @ home teased to +10 = ARE YOU KIDDING? Ok, Min big div win vs Det + Bal, div & @div next. Sandwich AFC in between 3 div games is a big deal. I'm worried BF plays a weak D in a nothing game... Dont play a weak D vs Lamar and Henry!
I want to love CLE w NJ getting rid of their good players, but this has that "everyone show up" feel for NJ. I teased CLE +3.5 a bit , but I'm being cautious.
Lastly, as a Rams fan I love them, but my bookie hasnt posted the line.
Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.
You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.
ATL +6 Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE.
CAR -5.5 No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR.
I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes.
CHI -4.5 I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win.
HOU +1 This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light.
BUF -9.5 Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game.
NYJ +2 Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do.
BAL -4 Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't.
Ind @ Pit: lets quickly look at PIT's schedule... Wk1 - Beat NYJ by 2, but they were losing by 15 and had to score 17 in the 4th to win. Should have lost to Jets! Wk2 - Worked by Sea Wk3 - NE beat themselves w turnovers (a few in the endzone/redzone). PIT should have lost 2-1 at this point but could easily be 0-3 Wk4 - Won vs Min in Spain (Wentz went for 350 & 2tds) Wk5 - Won vs Gabriel in his 1st start Wk6 - Lost to Flacco Bengals (342-3) Wk7 - Lost (beat up by) GB @ home on SNF PIT COULD EASILY BE 2-5 w/ wins vs Wentz in Spain and Gabriel's 1st start.
*In all fairness, Ind plays in Germany next and then a bye. Das German game is vs the non-conference Falcons. I think PIT is a bigger deal regarding playoff seeding.
I'm breaking down the games and can make points for/against most of the close ones. I dont like old trends because of how much the game changed, but recent trends in the right context have meaning. For example... Min is 1-9 vs Det in the last 10 games and the Det home dynamic shows a few double digit wins. Also, Det has won the last 5 in a row vs Min... and now Min is starting a green QB who's been hurt more than he's played. Branch is back, its a div game and Det will be rocking. I dont see how Min wins.
ATL -7 NON-BET I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.
ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover.
CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.
A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.
BUF -7 NON-BET I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.
CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.
For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.
SF +2.5 LIKE This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate?
CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)
@Mr. Bitter - I was going to hit Vegas tomorrow morning and go big on on teasers featuring ATL -1.5, but Im backing off. I have a gut feeling MIA makes it a game. Other than Diablo out, I really dont know why I have a bad feeling - especially since this is MIA's 2nd road game and they have BAL next on TNF. Bijan should ball out. IDK - I'm listening to whatever's giving me pause.
Good to see your seeing the same thing
I'm w you on Buf/Car too. I'm still going to hit small teasers on both sides, but feel like CAR has a small chance to win outright.
I like NE for the same reason I hit CLE last week... of the 4 sides I like their D vs Gabriel the best. Judkins has been carrying the team but not vs NE @ home (#3 run D @ 3.3 YPC). I like NE to win in a low scorer like 20-10, although it could get ugly and end up 27-3.
Yeah, just a hunch on MIA/ATL, and Cousins starting doesn't change anything. I feel like MIA keeps it close in this one, then gets thoroughly demolished by BAL in Week 9. I envision Achane and Bijan taking turns blasting off, and Waddle is way overdue for some numbers, assuming MIA is smart enough to work him in the slot and away from A.J. Terrell.
I might change my mind on CHI/BAL. The Bears are down to practice squad CBs. My main concerns are that Lamar isn't fully healthy, and that CHI has the weapons to keep up if the game becomes a race to 35, which is quite possible.
@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I don't post very often and when I do post my pick tends to backfire. I also seldom bet GB games as I'm a died in the wool Bear fan and hate GB, BUT In my opinion Pitt. getting a field goal at home is an automatic bet. Tomlin's record as an underdog [ especially at home, highly motivated, and coming off a loss ] is impossible to ignore. With the Ravens struggles, and no other decent team in their division, the Steelers should cruise to the division title. I expect a close game and getting a field goal is huge [ although 3 1/2 would be better ] . Good luck with all the other games !
I remember when this comment section was a gold mine of old head degenerate gamblers offering up angles aplenty. Not sure why they all bailed, but I would like to see that happen again. Lately it seems like it's me and Baird doing all the heavy lifting, with a few others only jumping in after the fact and piling on when I whiff. (Which happens often because that's the nature of this beast.) Any thoughts or angles you have are appreciated.
The metrics hate the Steelers tonight. Offensive and defensive EPA, success rate, EDP yards per play...it all comfortably favors the Packers. Individual matchups lean Packers too; Parsons vs PIT's OTs (3rd-lowest pass-blocking grade) with Rodgers only QB28 under pressure, Jordan Love top-3 in comp % between the numbers, vs. man coverage, and vs. the blitz (basically custom-built to dissect the PIT defensive scheme), etc.
But then there's Tomlin's 21-7-3 record as a home dog, which is hard to ignore - but I will. Probably somewhat foolishly, I've leaned less and less into trends over the years, preferring to focus on matchups, injuries, etc. The way I look at it, it's like "big deal - now Tomlin will be 21-8-3". GB is also 0-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. Now they'll be 1-4. I like GB. I also like CIN, so cue the media's unrealistic "Flacco will lead the Bengals past the Steelers and into the playoffs" narrative.
McCaffrey's ballin out and Kittle is back to block so SF looks good. Plus Saleh has that young D amp'd up - well at least vs ATL on the road in a letdown game. Penix looked pretty lost outdoors under the bright lights. To top it all off Nico & Kirk are out + Hou's run game is crap so how will they score? SF must be the side...
And then I looked at Hou's D - the front 4 is one of the best, front 7 legit and Lassiter + Pitre lock up the left side. Surprisingly, the only weakness is Stingley. Bourne seems like the only option outside of McCaffrey, but Hou brings #5 run D in terms of YPC @ 3.8 so he may not lay it down like he did vs a Diablo less D.
Hou @ home - lost to a healthy TB team by 1 point and beat Ten 26-0 (not legit; should have been 6-6 at half, but still 26-0). This is only their 3rd home game and I feel like Higgins and Noel show up vs #111 out of #112 CB Stout & Green 42.8 coverage. Lets not forget Schultz 9-10-98 last week.
***The clincher is Huff and Gross-Matos out***
I LOVE teasing the UNDER: 47.5 is so key in a real game, but I dont see this as a real game w/ NFC SF coming off a primetime blowout to play a stuggling AFC team. Neither team hits 20 pts.
You've convinced me. That 'Niners defensive depth chart is looking pretty grim. Like the Lions, SF wears their ability to overcome injuries like a badge of honor - a factor I feel sometimes isn't fully baked into the line for SF and DET - but there comes a point where the hits are too much to overcome. If HOU's offense can't get right in this one...
@Walt. No concern here? The whole Lions secondary is gone and no worries because they are group A?
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Buccaneers will have Mike Evans and Lavonte David, and there’s a chance Emeka Egbuka will play. The Lions, meanwhile, won’t have their top three cornerbacks and their two safeties. Despite this, the sharps have bet the Lions up from -5.5 to -6.
Your take was logical, but Dan Campbell's ability to overcome a rash of injuries is something that may need to be baked into handicapping the Lions going forward. Every coach uses the "next man up" cliche, but they take it seriously in Detroit. They did it last season, and now they're doing it with the secondary this season. It's nuts.
Nobody gets up to play the jets. Is why they look like they’re sticking around. The bungles on the other hand are on a high and they just might feast on a team since they’re so desperate to win.
@scaredmoney - I agree completely. Flacco hitting Chase for like 14-16 passes? + Higgins getting the game clinching pass must be a wake up call for every Bengals player... "hey, we have a chance"
I think they all get up & give 100% this week with their win over div rival/leader PIT last week & a new found hope. The home field crowd should help.
The CIN victory over PIT definitely felt like a springboard game. Maybe even kept Hendrickson in Cincy. I don't anticipate Flacco keeping it up and saving CIN's season, but there's no reason why they shouldn't TCB vs. my Jets. The Jets are a hot mess, and Tyrod Taylor might be playing hurt if he starts.
I know it's early, but Aaron Glenn already has a good coordinator/bad head coach vibe.
It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.
The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.
I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.
CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13
I agree on CAR's upswing and bet them to beat NY. I was ready to bet CAR win total under after they beat NJJ but now Im holding off. I like Dalton better than Young and CAR's D has been playing decent (JC Horn's 2 picks were both amazing) so I'm NOT betting the under win total... yet
With that said, Walt is on Milano being out to mess with BUF's run D but Ed Oliver was a big part as well.
Something not mentioned... Larry Ogunjobi is coming back after a 6-game PED suspension. That should help to cycle players vs run. If Hubbard was still out I'd like Dowdle to carry them, BUT this game means too much to a Bills team coming off a BYE and succeeding the div lead to NE.
I'm teasing BUF a little thinking they get close to 30 pts. I still like home field (3-0), Dalton & Dowdle so I'm treading lightly.
Side note: I just saw a graphic of Josh Allen 20+ yard passing TDs...
2020-23 = 27 2024-25 = 1
Shaq Thompson revenge game lol McMillan vs White favors Panthers (White has been a big liability this year). I also like McMillan to get his 1st game over 100 yards. Count it!
Yeah, I don't anticipate a look ahead for BUF. Not when they're looking up at the Pats in the AFC East. Also - betting Dalton over Allen coming off a bye seems insane.
That 20+ TD stat for Allen is crazy. Guess that's why Gabe Davis is back in the fold lol.
Feels like CB2 has been a problem spot for BUF forever. Curious to see how Hairston looks once he's activated.
What's your take on Milano these days? I think Walt may be overstating his impact, as the injuries are piling up and age is creeping in. It's starting to feel like a Sean Lee-type situation where injuries caught up all at once and he was terminally QUESTIONABLE until having to hang em up.
I know it's not ideal to make picks based off trends, but something else in Pittsburgh's favor is Hall of Fame QBs in "Revenge Games." Montana beat the 49ers, Brees beat the Chargers, Favre beat the Packers, Manning beat the Colts and Brady beat the Patriots in their 1st meeting. For what it's worth, Rodgers won his "Revenge Game" against the Jets Week 1.
Brett Favre (lost to the Packers with the Vikings), Kurt Warner (lost to the Giants and Rams with the Cardinals), and Peyton Manning (lost to the Colts with the Broncos)
Week 7 is the Patriots third road game in a row. They have won the first two and it is not common for a team to win all three. Maybe Walt can access some detail on this.
@JRO60 - I tried to do a few simple searches looking back 10 years but some obvious issues emerge with algorithms...
bye week in between 3 road games - count? international "home" game which is really a road game - count?
I guess I could grab all the games over 10 years, narrow columns to simple home vs away and highlight 3 away in a row. Take those and make a pivot table for W/L result on 3rd game. Maybe tomorrow, too hazy tonight.
AI and computers are inherently stupid and require exact specifics which makes it difficult to analyze. Maybe Walt or someone here knows a better way?
FWIW... The last NFL team to win three consecutive road games was the Detroit Lions in the 2024 season
In the Overrated/Underrated page, you list the Denver Broncos as underrated, noting they "could be 6-0." In their write-up against the Giants, however, you call the Broncos "a fraudulent 4-2," choosing to focus on the weak competition in their wins. So which is it??
Look ahead... My main look ahead is CAR. They surprised ATL in the home opener, beat the amazing Dolphins and ran over Dallas' tough run D. Ok, I'm being a smartass but they have the junky Jets coming up and if they win their 1st road game then all the talking heads are going to be praising them @ 4-3... And then the schedule gets real. I'm all for playing the win total under if they beat NYJ.
CAR < win total IF they beat NYJ and things get inflated (even if slightly inflated)
Side note... I just heard Rattler get questioned and explain why he was benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. Maybe he brings a little extra this week because of that? But CHI just played on the road in the rain so they'll be ready at home in the rain; NOleans wont. IDK
PHI vs MIN = no thanks
Finally, I cant wait to watch WAS@DAL (hopefully everyone plays). TB@DET is enticing (Campbell said Alim McNeil "is friggin playin"! Thats awesome! Cant wait! Um, but who on the backend is playing? Also, what TB players are going to suit up? Too many question marks at this time.)
Walt - it sounds like your backing off of prop bets or at least saying "if it wasn't for them...". I think there are some layup props this week so stick w it, but why not add teasers? You used to do 2-gamers and hit - why quit? This week seems tough spread-wise, but teasers look good...
KC -12 to -6 I agree this could easily be a 10-11 pt win and possible backdoor cover, but KC is hitting their stride, feeling confident and playing at home in a div game. They stop the run well which gives LVR limited scoring options. KC will get a big lead and let off. Rice back should be good practice and less than a TD seems $. Aside from Maxx, whats scary from LVR? Answer = not Jeanty or Geno
IND +1.5 to +7.5 Over a TD with the great playing Colts in a conference game = YES. I root for the SD Chargers, but c'mon LA isn't blowing out a stacked Ind team.
Other options... Cle +3.5 I really like your simple breakdown of 4 pieces and CLE's D is by far the best. I think Judkins and Fannin have good games as well as the obv CLE D. As log as Gabriel doesn't blow it, I dont see MIA playing well in the elements vs that D.
ATL +8 SF getting offensive pieces back AND playing at home is scary. ATL came off bye to play a prime time home game and showed up = OBV LETDOWN (plus dome to road). But, Warner out is the final domino on SF's D. ATL should be able to control TOP and keep it close w MVP Bijan & that O-line vs Huff only.
NYG@DEN tease - pick a side. I like DEN to win, but either side is appealing... NYG +13 OR DEN -1 Just remember, NYG switched to Dart (huge get up) & beat LAC on a letdown in NJ. They went on the road in a natural letdown & lost to the winless Saints - lost to the winless Saints. They came back to NJ and beat div rival/SB champ PHI on a short week. See the trend? This is a natural travel away from home letdown spot for NYG with PHI up next. Nix has been junk but if the D can limit the run then Dart will have too much on his shoulders (Bonito leads league in sacks). Wandale has been great, but McMillan is #3 in slot and we arent even bringing up Surtain. I like Tim Patrick Troy Franklin to have a weird stat line... 3-120-2.
Side note - why isnt Lil Jordan on any NYG depth chart? He's the biggest threat.
)
I got worked last weekend. It happens.
Week 1 & 2 2024 were worse, but I havent lost that much in over a year.
I looked back on why Det got killed at home in a div game vs a semi rook QB, but Goff does fold to pressure so bravo BF D.
Ind vs Pit? idk - good on ya for 6 turnovers. Just do that every week and you'll win the SB. KC? Again, idk. I teased KC +4 in a big game = should've been money, but I get it... Buf 5-0 in last 5 reg season vs KC and KC 4-0 vs Buf in last playoff games.
Look ahead leans...
LVR @ Den = Tucker Props
Parker Washington props
AZ @ SEA - AZ coming off a big win. I've been high on Brissett, but now that mighty mouse is on IR I think the pressure builds. No run O is tough in Seattle.
NE @ TB - I want to love TB assuming health comes their way. NE has MIA on TNF so TB is the obvious play off a bye. Non-conf helps too.
PIT @ LAC - under
Bal @ Min - teasing Min +10
*Min 4 @ home? Something is off with this one. I had BAL winning 6 of 7 after the bye and this was their loss in my mind. But Min @ home teased to +10 = ARE YOU KIDDING?
Ok, Min big div win vs Det + Bal, div & @div next. Sandwich AFC in between 3 div games is a big deal. I'm worried BF plays a weak D in a nothing game... Dont play a weak D vs Lamar and Henry!
I want to love CLE w NJ getting rid of their good players, but this has that "everyone show up" feel for NJ. I teased CLE +3.5 a bit , but I'm being cautious.
Lastly, as a Rams fan I love them, but my bookie hasnt posted the line.
GL all