Greetings Mr. Bitter and good luck this year. I'm curious where you found out that Carolina will be wearing white jerseys. I'm a firm believer that wearing dark uniforms on a warm, sunny day is idiotic. I live in the Southwest and will never buy a vehicle that isn't gray or white. The Jaguars over the last 2 years have indicated to me that they were not serious about winning because they always wore their dark uniforms at home. There was a reason why the Cowboys always wore white jerseys at home before they started playing indoors. At least Miami always wears white at home !
The Gridiron Uniform Database constantly updates uniform matchups as uni announcements are released. Has all the historic uniforms, too. Fun little site.
Why, oh why, won't the Lions wear those sweet silver pants??
I admit to being a huge Bear fan. But Walter did not really discuss how a [ rookie QB ] can go on the road and win his first game as a favorite against a divisional opponent ? Am I nuts for thinking J.J. McCarthy will struggle in his actual first NFL game on the road ? I also think that the Vikings were incredibly lucky last year and that this year the luck factor will even out. Good luck to Walter and the rest of the bettors - be careful of opening week as strange results are not unusual. For some reason I also like the Colts but that may be more of a fade against Miami than liking the Colts.
SEA +1.5 McCaffrey is washed. Trent Williams may be too, and the rest of the O-line is mediocre save for RG Puni. Defensively, the days of Armstead, Buckner, Hargrove, Greenlaw and Hufanga are over; the depth chart is now Bosa, Warner and a bunch of question marks. The SF STs are putrid. Until SF is valued correctly, they're an auto-fade for me. SEA wins SU.
CIN -5.5 Narrative changer. CIN will jump out 14-0 before CLE knows what's happening. CLE might hang around a bit as Flacco attacks CIN's weak LBs and Ss with a healthy dose of Njoku, but CIN pulls away in the 2nd half behind Chase Brown and some Flacco TOs.
MODERATE
DET +2 Until GB proves they can beat the big boys, I gotta fade them vs. the big boys. Lost amid the Parsons talk is the fact that DET returns Hutchinson (along with about half their defensive starters). Toss into the mix a battered GB WR corps and QUESTIONABLE Nate Hobbs, and I like the fully healthy Lions to quiet the "new coordinators" talk with a divisional road win. </p>
SMALL</strong>
TB -1 As long as Vea plays, the Bucs have the advantage in the trenches. I anticipate the ATL O-line without Dalman and McGrady will be more problematic than anticipated. (Penix's pressure/no pressure splits were alarming last year.) TB should be able to establish Bucky Irving vs. a weak ATL DT group. WR2 Darnell Mooney (3 TDs vs. TB last season) trending OUT doesn't help ATL's cause.
DEN -8.5 I'm not sure if we've seen TEN fully bottom out yet. (I'm not sold on Cam Ward.) When you're talking about the addition of LT Dan Moore like it's a good thing, you're f*cking low, man.
BAL -1 Running game and defense travels, especially early-season. I don't trust the BUF defense to contain MVP snub-motivated Lamar Jackson, who will toss 3 TDs and rush for one more.
No disrespect to Walter, but he has lost his edge. He use to be a great picker, however he spends so much time on the fantasy crap, Prop Bets and Fanduel that it has cost him. Walter use to spend a lot of time on his NFL picks, but no more. You can tell that his handicapping is AI generated. I wish he would get back to the basics like he use to do. I see Fandual and other giant sites have gotten control of Walter and are destroying him. What happened to all the reports of sharp action? I believe that Walter sadly has been bought off just like Don Best Sports was bought off. Nice 0 and 2 start Walter. GET BACK TO THE BASICS
First off... Congrats Walt on preseason - you killed it. I
wish I joined outside of BAL, but I see an evenness going into this season so
I'm gun shy. Nonetheless, BRAVO on a great start. You dissected all 1s, 2s
& 3s perfectly – keep it up.
I've been tempering my expectations and have backed off a few bets + going
smaller on DK the 1st week.
I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say
otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as
a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??
I love DEN and have to say you forgot to
put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible
odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.
DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M
Resort last wkend)
ARI was my next big ML bet, but
ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure,
the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the
2 series with starters (sans 3rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like
Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year,
on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the
iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML
and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs
SEA. I love SEA.
I think the talking heads have been hanging
too hard to SF’s schedule. Don’t get me wrong…. I love the schedule & them
to make the playoffs; I love Salah back; I love the best O coordinator/HC in
the game; I love… that’s it. I wanted to hate Darnold and call him a 1 hit
wonder until I saw Kubiaks scheme. I have to trust what I saw in preseason from
that offense. Yes, I know, PRESEASON. But! I cant help but think about SF
losing a few pieces… Hargrave on the front, Greenlaw in the middle, Hufunga
back & Ward on the side. Also, to hear SEA is going to incorporate Milroe
into the fold + homefield + everyone thinks SEA sucks = I went BIG teasing SEA +8.5 *Full disclosure: Cross is a stud + high-ranking rookie next to him, but rest
of O-line sucks. However, SF is starting 3 rookies on defense (see loses above).
*I forgot to mention Deebo is gone, Aiyuk is out and McCaffrey
was weak in his 4 games last Dec. If I was a D coordinator like Macdonald, I
would shadow Riq’s size w Jennings and let the rest play out. SEA wins 1st
half
Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 &
6 games…
PHI -1.5 (small pivot/hedge when it went to 8.5 w/ DAL
+14.5) Small PHI/Dal > 41.5 Mix KC/LAC PIT +3 (thanks Walt for write-up) IND +7.5 (old) – on a side note, does Mc lose locker room, Hill leave or Tua
get floored first? I don’t see MIA lasting Jax +3 (although I love Hubbard in DK) LVR/NE (more on <50 + small tease both ways) NYG/WAS mix *I have a lot to say on this game, but already rambling so… Terry
<rec yds (miss long bomb for PI? error in our favor) CIN/CLE mix (heavier on CLE +11.5 w/ Walt) ARI 0 DEN -1.5 to -2.5 Obv *SEA +8.5* may go ML, we’ll see
Hit MIN + BAL 2-3 weeks ago @ +1.5 BAL +7.5 HUGE MIN +7.5 – might hedge w/ CHI +7.5 now
Waiting for official injury reports, weather, etc, then will set you chumps straight.
Until then, I couldn't agree with you more on SF/SEA.
The Niners are being valued as if they're the same team from two years ago. They're not.
Cheap Purdy and expensive Purdy are two different beasts, both from individual pressure and team-building standpoints.
The WR corps and O-line are problematic.
Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be washed.
Other than Bosa and Warner, the defense is nothing but question marks and unproven youngsters. (Right now, SEA has the better defense. As do LAR and ARI.)
Wouldn't touch CLE even at +11.5. I think Walt is misreading this one. The Bengals have heard it all about their traditional slow starts and their piss-poor defense. It's why the starters were out there in preseason. I'm confident Burrow and company come storming out of the gates and Al Golden's new scheme rewrites the crappy CIN defense narrative for at least one week. Bengals in a blowout.
RT Abraham Lucas isn't bad...he's just always injured. I'm assuming he's healthy for this game since SEA just gave him a 3-year/$46M contract extension on Thursday. If a healthy Lucas with some chip help from A.J. Barner (good blocking TE) keeps Bosa under control, who else on that SF D-line is ready to step up?
Jordan Elliott. Kalia Davis. Dee Winters. Upton Stout. Ji'Ayir Brown. Jason Pinnock. These are current STARTERS on the SF defensive depth chart.
Also: If the game is close, the 49ers are at a disadvantage with their historically bad ST units. Ultra-inconsistent Jake Moody is somehow still the kicker, with washed Thomas Morstead at punter.
And now Christian McCaffrey is QUESTIONABLE with a new calf injury. Predictable. The thing about athletes like McCaffrey (incredibly tightly wound as opposed to good, natural musculature) is that by the time they're 28, every muscle wants to detach. McCaffrey will never be the same and is approaching the cliff. As is Trent Williams.
Last thing: With the SF WR corps battered and disorganized, my biggest fear is that the Niners will just kill SEA with a steady diet of George Kittle.
I'm interested to see if the Seahawks employ Nick Emmanwori (my darkhorse to join Malaki Starks, Abdul Carter and draft crush Jahdae Barron in the DROY race) as something resembling a Kittle/McBride-eraser. Emmanwori's skill set is perfect for the job.
Be careful not to overuse the "hipster pick" thing.
I'm also not sold on Bryce Young and predict the Panthers will finish 3rd in the NFC South, but CAR seems to have some direction under Canales, so the idea of the Panthers winning a weak division isn't outlandish if I'm wrong about Young.
CAR has improved their offensive and defensive lines and bolstered the rushing attack over the last two seasons - which is usually a good formula for establishing long-term success. Teams could run at will vs. CAR last season, but the return of Derrick Brown along with FA and draft additions will likely change that. The Panthers might be a tough out.
A "hipster pick" would be the Dolphins to win 11 games or something.
You remain as clueless as you've ever been. I've read the first two games and already can't stand it.
First off, the wALT line of 19.5 on the eagles was insane. Divisional game between rivals but you have 19.5 as the line. Eagles with no motivation which you seem to pretend to care about for other games so much.
Then in the Chiefs game you pretend everyone is down on the Chiefs but 61% of the bets are on KC.
You're falling into the same trap again this year. You have an idea and then focus on confirmation bias. At this point you should realize that you have NO EDGE and that you are picking games at a rate within a variance of a coin flip. Give it up and go start a MAGA podcast before its too late.
Walt- I have to disagree with your assessment of the Cowboys-- Eagles game. The Cowboys will be fired up because of the relief that the team doesn't have to deal with the Parsons issue. Expect the Cowboys to either cover or pull the outright upset on Thursday. The Eagles will not be focused because they will be caught looking towards the rematch against the Chiefs.
Dan Campbell has routinely out-coached LaFleur at every stop and Detroit has the talent advantage is almost every position group. Continually playing the Coordinator card is an easy media trope to jump on but when you dig into it, they actually replaced their coordinators with in-house guy for DC (who A Glenn literally groomed for the role) and an in-house guy in 2022 for OC (Who Dan also coached with in NO).
They've clearly said they aren't changing the offense as it's the top 3 in the NFL already so to use the Eagles as a comparison is a poor choice as it's apples to oranges.
Sure the middle of the O Line is a question but Glasgow is proven at least average at Center and Mahogany graded very highly in his 2 starts last season and Ratledge is next to Sewell the best OT in football. Also you don't even talk about how much improved the Lions Defense is by simply being healthy - Potentially top 5 secondary in the NFL, Hutch is back on a DPOY track, Health LBer room and high end start (Reader) and 1st rd pick in T Williams for DT.
Good stuff. Also: Like everyone, I worry about the DET interior O-line, but it's not as if GB has a game-wrecking DT. With Kenny Clark traded, the GB interior DL may be as big of a question as the DET interior OL.
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