I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA.
Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place.
Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom.
@Mr. Bitter The bye is a doubled edged sword, it works great if you are coming off a loss or multiple losses. Gives you time to get things in order.
Doesn't work so hot if it kills your momentum and are on a win streak like the Cards were.
To say that a team isn't good/great because they lost against a good divisional team (that you yourself view as under rated) is a little short sighted and nothing for the Cards to hang their head about.
Also Kyler didn't have a good game vs a Seattle defense that's pretty good, but before that during their 4 game win streak there are plenty of articles and opinions that he's been playing his most efficient football of his career.
Cards will win outright and expose the Vikings this week.
With the exception of Budda Baker and maybe Garrett Williams, there isn't a player on this depth chart that would start for the MIN defense. Gannon/Rallis have done a remarkable job of overcoming injuries and scheming to the strengths of what they have to work with, but schematic smoke-and-mirrors can mask such a glaring lack of talent for only so long.
ARI would have lost to SEA - bye or no bye - because their recent success isn't sustainable. The Chargers are the only team ARI has beaten that likely makes the playoffs, and ARI's only convincing pre-bye wins were at home over CHI and NYJ - teams that were at-or-near rock bottom and can't stop the run.
Six years into the career of a former #1 overall pick, "efficient" shouldn't be okay. Especially when efficient really just means dump-offs to Trey McBride when the running game is clicking. Where is that Murray dual-threat action? Where is the connection with MHJ? We've only seen flashes, so why should I assume Murray will just turn it on when teams bottle up Conner, as SEA did and MIN will likely do?
All that said...you could easily be right about ARI winning. As you suggested, the Vikings are kinda fraudulent, too, and Sam Darnold is never to be trusted. (For what it's worth, the Ivan Pace Jr. injury and rock-the-boat signing of Daniel Jones has me leaning ARI ATS.) But a win over MIN wouldn't convince me that ARI is a great or even good team, and only push them that much more into overrated - not underrated - territory, IMO.
The Steelers might be underrated, as crazy as that might sound. Nobody believes in them, and I’m convinced that they were sleepwalking against the Browns. Their defense is still elite.
How are the Jets considered overrated. All but the most ardent Jets fans and Aaron Rodgers believers view the entire organization as a raging dumpster fire. Are you implying that even those basement level evaluations of the team are overrating it?
Ardent Jets fan here. You are 100% right. The Jets are receiving nothing but negative press right now. If/when Rodgers is benched or injured, the switch to Tyrod Taylor might actually push the Jets toward underrated territory. Even at 35, Taylor probably still has functional mobility - which Rodgers absolutely doesn't anymore.
I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.
OVERRATED San Francisco 49ers
Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.
Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.
Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.
Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.
The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.
This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.
UNDERRATED Seattle Seahawks
Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.
First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.
I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.
As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.
I'm guessing they lose @DET Monday night. Just too many injuries along that defensive front 7 right now. But Week 5 at home vs. the Giants should be a get-right spot, and that will be the first of four home games in their next five going into their bye week, with a very winnable @ATL the only away game. SEA could easily be 7-2 going into their Week 10 bye.
It's time to take the Cowboys off the overrated list- after the Cowboys will dominate the Ravens on this coming Sunday. And the my reasoning is that after a week of receiving negative criticism from all the talking heads on the sports networks- and Jerry speaks during the week from his radio program. Expect the Cowboys to be focused and blow up the overrated Ravens. Expect Lamar to be under tremendous pressure all day long in front of the overzealous Cowboys fans. Cowboys 37 Ravens 14- take it to the bank!
The Cowboys are in trouble. The league-wide safety shell trend is making running the ball/stopping the run more important than we've seen in decades. DAL can do neither. Like, not at all.
I don't think it's fair to say that the Bucs were exposed vs. the Broncos. Coming off the big win vs. DET and with a big game vs. PHI ahead, Week 3 was a classic trap game. The Bucs were also rolling with a gutted defense.
Not saying the Bucs are SB contenders, but they're definitely capable of winning the NFC South. Mayfield is (somehow) the best QB in the division, the offense will improve as Goedeke gets healthy and Bucky Irving settles in at RB1, and the defense will be fine once Vea, Kancey, Winfield are healthy.
You can't omit the Jets from any over rated list. How many talking heads have them going to the Superbowl? This after missing the playoffs for thirteen years! How about we win a wildcard game first?
I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.
Performance-wise, Watson has clearly checked out after getting paid, and with the new sexual assault accusations it seems just a matter of time before he's benched and/or released. That's demoralizing, season-killing stuff, and Joe Flacco is no longer around to give CLE a short-term boost.
Chubb and Conklin will probably never be the same, and Jedrick Wills hasn't been good since his rookie season. With the Njoku injury, points will be hard to come by and we could see a very frustrated Browns defense before long. The whole situation in CLE points more toward a spiral than improvement.
@Mr. Bitter: Totally agree on your assessment of the Browns potential downward spiral. Watson clearly has/is? walking the path to personal/self destruction. It has happened to a lot of athletes across the sports spectrum and seems to be directly attributed to a rough/horrible upbringing. Some of these gifted athletes find a way to overcome, sadly, many can't/won't.
I just think the NFL is all about getting it right at QB and Walt will grow old waiting for CLE, CAR and TEN to turn the corner unless those teams make a change under center.
The QB situations in CLE and CAR are catastrophic when factoring in the investment prices. I mean, the Panthers passed on C.J. Stroud and basically traded the foundation of a playoff team to CHI to draft a QB that is simply too small and plays scared. Walt says the Panthers are bound to improve because they upgraded the O-line; so what? What good is an improved run-blocking unit when the opposing defense can just stack the box because they know the QB is atrocious?
Watson, Young nd Levis suck, and every member of their organizations top-to-bottom know that. There's a ripple effect. CLE, CAR and TEN are just spinning their wheels and should be auto-fades until those QBs are benched.
Amazing to see my Falcons continue a horrible trend of scoring a few to Zero points in second half of football games. Lost a decent sized teaser play (3tm. 10 pt.) with them at +6.5. Argg. Good news is, I have a decent sized three team par ongoing/ending with the Niners at -4 tonight. Plan on a decent sized straight hedge play with the Jets at +4. Gut tells me that Niners when this by at least 7, but way to early in the season to put a "win win game"' tonight, in peril. Good luck to all tonight. Good to be back on Walter s site and good to be back with the veterans of this site. Also "hello," to any new folks on site.
TEN's success hinges on whether Levis is the guy at QB. If he's not, TEN won't win many games. Judging by what we saw today, Levis has not improved from last season. I don't think his penchant for back-breaking turnovers is going to just go away.
I don't think anyone expects the Saints to be good this season.
Raiders are overrated. Antonio Pierce is a complete unknown and his late-season interim Ws came against teams that had given up. His schemes/philosophies are outdated. He's an inexperienced, rah rah player's coach; the track record for such coaches is not good once the initial feel-good vibes fade.
Their defense is mediocre beyond Crosby and Wilkins. Robert Spillane is arguably their best back-7 starter. That's not good. Jimmy Lake was a very questionable DC hire.
The offensive line is mediocre beyond Kolton Miller, and O-line guru Carmen Bricillo is no longer around to extract lemonade from those lemons. (Very underrated loss.)
The running game - which Pierce hopes will be LV's bread and butter - looked completely ineffective in the preseason. The Raiders might have the least-talented RB room in the NFL.
The QB situation is right there with PIT for worst in the AFC, but at least the QBs that the Steelers will be yo-yoing in and out of the lineup have some talent and upside.
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I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA.
Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place.
Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom.