Player Prop: David Montgomery to Score First Touchdown +850 (0.5 Units)
Detroit Lions (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Lions by 2. Total: 45.
Thursday, Sept. 28, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
Week 3 Analysis: It's hard to ever feel bad about a 12-4 week, but we suffered some big losses. I'll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:
49ers, 3 units (win): The 49ers didn't play their best, as they left some points on the table. Yet, they still prevailed by 18.
Patriots, 4 units (win): Things got scary at the end, but Bill Belichick's mastery of crappy quarterbacks continued.
Broncos, 5 units (loss): I had way too many units on the Broncos, as it was a mistake to bank on the Dolphins taking the game lightly. To be fair though, there was a ton of sharp money on Denver, so the professional bettors thought the same thing.
Falcons, 5 units (loss): I almost want to send Arthur Smith an invoice for this loss. Why did he not run the ball nearly as much as he usually does? Why did Bijan Robinson get one touch in the fourth quarter? What a terrible game plan.
Colts, 3 units (win): It's always great to have an underdog of more than six when the game goes to overtime. This was a game the sharps also bet heavily.
Panthers, 8 units (loss): This broke the week, as a win here would have put me in the black. I think it's important to be fair when analyzing picks because knowing the difference between poor luck and poor handicapping could be a big difference in future profits or losses. I think we got unlucky in this game. The Panthers were leading in the third quarter as six-point dogs. They lost their top linebacker (Frankie Luvu) and best safety (Xavier Woods) to injury, which completely depleted their defense because they were already missing Shaq Thompson. After Luvu and Woods left the game, the Seahawks went from sputtering offensively to being unstoppable. I think we had the right side, as Seattle and its crappy defense didn't deserve to be such big favorites over a team with a quality defense.
If you haven't visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we've finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.
Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It's $7.99 per month, but you'll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don't want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!
DETROIT OFFENSE: One of the main reasons I faded the Lions last week was because I didn't expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to be healthy because he was dealing with a turf toe. Everyone said that it was a four-week injury, so it seemed like he would be ineffective as he pushed to return early. That clearly was not the case, as St. Brown dominated Atlanta's secondary.
St. Brown should thrive if the Packers are short-handed once again. Jaire Alexander was sidelined on Sunday, so he could miss this game because it's just four days later. The Packers' pass rush will need to disrupt this as best as possible, and they'll have a chance because the Lions were down two offensive linemen on Sunday.
However, Detroit should be able to pound the ball very effectively to negate the pass rush. The Packers continue to be weak to the run, so it's possible that Jahmyr Gibbs could have a break-out performance.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Like the Lions, the Packers were missing two offensive linemen last week. This seemed to affect them early on against the Saints because they failed to score until they were down 17-0, but they eventually overcame the absences of David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins.
The Lions are better equipped to take advantage of missing offensive linemen than the Saints are. Their pass rush is superior, as Desmond Ridder discovered in last week's loss. Aidan Hutchinson and company will create problems for "No Cookie" Jordan Love in this game if Bakhtiari is sidelined again.
While the Lions will be able to run on the Packers, Green Bay won't be able to do the same thing versus Detroit. It's not even clear if Aaron Jones will play, but if he does, Detroit has done a great job of clamping down versus the rush; it has held Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson in check the past two weeks.
RECAP: The Packers won last week despite missing so many key players. It was an impressive victory, but doing so once again will be difficult unless they get some pieces back from injury.
It's difficult to handicap this game at the moment because we don't know who will be playing for the Packers. If it's status quo from last week, then the Lions will look appealing because this spread won't make any sense. The Saints were -1 in Lambeau, so this would be saying that Detroit and New Orleans are even, which is something I would strongly disagree with.
I'm going to pencil in the Lions right now, but we'll have to see the injury report. If the Packers are suddenly fully healthy, I'll have interest in them as a home underdog.
Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow
@walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers inactive list is going to be interesting. They could have plenty of key players sidelined, which would create a decent betting opportunity with the Lions. Of course, Detroit has injury worries of its own. Check back around 7:30-7:45 Eastern for my final thoughts.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are welcoming back key players, with Taylor Decker returning for the Lions and Aaron Jones and Christian Watson playing for the Packers. However, both teams are still missing some key talents. Detroit will once again be without three defensive backs, while Green Bay won't have Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, and De'Vondre Campbell. I think this favors the Lions, but I'm not too confident about that. The sharps aren't either because they haven't touched this game. I won't either, but I'm picking Detroit. If you want to bet the Lions, the best line is -2 -110 at Bookmaker. Also, I think I'm going to bet first touchdown scorer, so I may have that in a bit if I find something.
PLAYER PROP: I tweeted out,
Who will score the first touchdown tonight? Charlie Campbell gave me David Montgomery, which I like, so I'll bet it. The question is, can we get a good number on it? The answer is yes, with the help of
OddsShopper, which has data like this:
Some sportsbooks list it at 5/1, but DraftKings has +850 available! That's a steal compared to +500. I'll bet a half unit on that. You can
sign up for OddsShopper here!
