We've decided to create individual NFL Picks pages for each game. These individual NFL Picks pages will not only post Walt's predictions for each game; they'll also contain NFL spread records, trends and a poll where you can vote on which team covers each game.
Week 4 NFL Pick: Jaguars 24, Falcons 17 Jaguars -3 -118 (3 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$300 Under 43 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0 Player Prop: Christian Kirk to Score First Touchdown +1100 (0.5 Units)
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 9:30 AM
at London
The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.
My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!
ATLANTA OFFENSE: Where was the running game on Sunday? Arthur Smith often gives his two runners 30-plus carries, but Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier barely handled the ball in the loss to Detroit. In fact, Robinson had just one touch in the fourth quarter. That's not an ideal way to utilize a talented top-10 pick!
Going back to the run will be difficult in this matchup because the Jaguars have a pass-funnel defense. Jacksonville has been excellent versus the run thus far, though it's not like they've gone against elite rushing attacks. They've stopped Deon Jackson, Isiah Pacheco, and Dameon Pierce, so perhaps Robinson and Allgeier can crack this defense.
Desmond Ridder will have opportunities to beat a struggling Jaguars secondary that just allowed several big plays to C.J. Stroud. However, Ridder just had a similar opportunity versus a Lions defense missing three defensive backs, and he proved to be a disappointment. Ridder just doesn't seem equipped to take advantage of such liabilities despite having Drake London and Kyle Pitts at his disposal.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars couldn't stop shooting themselves in the foot against the Texans. Multiple drops, fumbles, and penalties negating big plays were the catalysts for the loss.
I don't expect the Jaguars to be so sloppy again. They were likely flat as a result of the loss to the Chiefs, but now that they're 1-2, they'll have to bounce back. They'll be able to do so on Trevor Lawrence's arm, as Atlanta allowed some big plays to the Lions last week, particularly on Jared Goff passes to Sam LaPorta. The Jaguars have a talented tight end of their own who will be able to exploit the Falcons' linebacking corps.
Not everything will work for the Jaguars. Travis Etienne doesn't project well, given that the Falcons have been stout against the run thus far in 2023. They're ranked seventh in rush defense EPA after clamping down on Miles Sanders, A.J. Dillon, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
RECAP: At first thought, I was going to back the Falcons. My reasoning was that this line is too large. I have the Jaguars as a half-point better than the underrated Falcons. Giving Jacksonville a half point for being at "home," I would make this line -1. Yet, the Jaguars are favored by three, so we're getting four key numbers with the Falcons. I initially thought the most likely results are the Jaguars and Falcons winning by three, so we'd get a win and a push by selecting Atlanta.
However, after thinking about this game some more, I decided that I'd go with the Jaguars, and the more I think about it, the more I like them. A couple of things: First, all the Falcons can do offensively is run the ball, while Jacksonville excels at stopping the run. This was the case in the Atlanta-Detroit game last week, and we saw the Lions coast to an easy victory. The same thing could happen here. Second, the spread should have moved as an overreaction to the Jaguars' embarrassing loss to the Texans. Everyone has moved Jacksonville way down in their power rankings as a result, but if that defeat was just the byproduct of Jacksonville being flat after losing to the Chiefs, then that was a mistake.
However, despite the harsh, negative sentiment toward the Jaguars - ProFootballTalk moved them from eight to 18 in their power rankings - the line of -3 is exactly what the advance spread was. What gives? Well, just look at the sharp action. There's heavy pro money on the Jaguars, likely because of the matchup and also the overreaction element.
I hate going against value, but I don't think we're getting anything better than -3 for a good reason. I'll be betting at least three units on Jacksonville.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm concerned with the Jaguars' offensive line, which may not even have Anton Harrison in this game with an ankle injury. If the Jaguars are down another offensive lineman, they'll be difficult to back.
SATURDAY NOTES: My one fear for the Jaguars was Anton Harrison being ruled out, but he's questionable after being limited in practice all week. My plan is to still bet Jacksonville for three units.
SATURDAY NOTES II: In this Saturday notes video...
...I said I was going to lock in the Jaguars -3 with the vig rising. I pointed out that the best line was -3 -115 at FanDuel and BetMGM. Well, both books have risen the vig to -120. The best line is now -3 -118 at Bookmaker. There's a real chance this moves to -3.5 by kickoff, so I want to make sure we get the -3. I'm locking in the Jaguars for three units.
PLAYER PROP: I'm going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I'll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. For instance, Christian Kirk is 11/1 on FanDuel, but 9/1 in many other places. I like Kirk because he's going to play way more with Zay Jones sidelined. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!
FINAL THOUGHTS: Looks like we were right to lock this in at -3 -118. This line has risen to -3.5 in most books, due to sharp action on Jacksonville. You can still get -3 -120 at FanDuel if you haven't bet this yet. Oh, and f**k you, Roger Goodell, for these 9:30 a.m. games.
