Player Prop: Gabriel Davis to Score First Touchdown +1600 (0.5 Units)
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Bills.
VEGAS UPDATE: I'll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 5-6 ATS.
Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:
Cowboys -12.5
Chiefs -13
Patriots -2.5
49ers -10.5
The public did well last week aside from losing their top wager.
Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
Broncos -3
Vikings -3.5
Chiefs -9
Bengals +1
Let's laugh at the public for backing two 0-3 road favorites the most!
MIAMI OFFENSE: How can we not begin with the Dolphins' offense? Everything they touched turned to gold against the Broncos in their ridiculous 70-point performance. It seemed like anyone would go the distance whenever they touched the ball. It was a truly remarkable performance.
Well, sort of. The Broncos have the league's worst defense, and not just because of what occurred last week. They also surrendered north of 30 points to Sam Howell and the Redskins the prior week, so they haven't been stopping anyone. In fact, two of the three games the Dolphins have played this year have come against bottom-five defenses, with the Chargers being the other. The lone exception was the Patriots, who held Miami to 24 points.
The Bills are even better than the Patriots defensively, ranking second compared to New England's 11th standing. They have a terrific pass rush, which could cause some problems for Tua Tagovailoa. Buffalo also ranks No. 1 in coverage, so it'll be able to defend Tagovailoa's weapons as well. Tagovailoa and receivers will have to do all the work, by the way, given that the Bills are stout versus the run. They're just two weeks removed from limiting Josh Jacobs to two rushing yards, so they'll handle Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: As great as Miami's offense has been, it's difficult to put them in the top three of my
NFL Power Rankings because of their defense. The Dolphins rank 17th in defensive EPA despite playing two games against the Patriots and Broncos.
Stopping the Bills is a completely different animal. The Dolphins have just the 17th-ranked pass rush, so Josh Allen will have more than enough time to shred a Miami secondary that still hasn't felt the loss of Jalen Ramsey, outside of the Week 1 shootout versus the Chargers. Allen will be able to connect to Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis early and often. This also seems like an opportune time for Allen to utilize his legs.
The Dolphins aren't very good versus the run either. This will obviously benefit both Allen and James Cook, who has been better than expected thus far. The Broncos couldn't run on the Dolphins because they fell behind so early, but Buffalo will be able to pick up some yardage on the ground.
RECAP: I think most people betting this game are wondering how the Dolphins can possibly be stopped after scoring 70 points in a single game. We can tell by the amount of public action coming in on Miami. The spread has moved away from the advance line from +3.5 to +2.5, yet casual bettors continue to pound the Dolphins.
As amazing as the Dolphins have been, it's fair to look at their defensive competition. Both the Chargers and Broncos are in the bottom five of defensive EPA, so it's no wonder that Miami was able to score at will against them. In the other game, the Dolphins were held to 24 points against the Patriots, who are 11th in defensive EPA.
The Bills are second in defensive EPA. They have a ferocious pass rush that can finally crack Miami's offensive line. They have play-makers in the linebacking corps and secondary who can cover the Dolphins and create some turnovers. This is a level of defense Tagovailoa has not battled yet this year, and he'll be tested.
If you couldn't tell I like Buffalo. I like going against big overreactions, and Miami's 70-point outburst certainly qualifies as one. We're also getting great line value with the Bills because the spread moved through three. Oh, and it's still early in the week, but there's a ton of sharp money coming in on the Bills, which is not surprising at all.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Leonard Floyd and Jordan Poyer popped up on Wednesday's injury report. Missing them, especially Floyd, would hurt Buffalo's chances of covering this spread.
SATURDAY NOTES: Leonard Floyd isn't even on the injury report after missing Wednesday's practice. Jordan Poyer is out, but the Bills are deep at safety. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have their top two offensive linemen listed as questionable. If they're out, the Dolphins won't stand a chance to move the chains at all.
SATURDAY NOTES II: I'm locking in the Bills as well. The vig is rising here as well, and I don't want to miss out on all the -2.5s. The best line is -2.5 -118 at Bookmaker.
PLAYER PROP: I'm going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I'll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the
OddsShopper tool to get the best value. Here's a great value: Gabriel Davis is 16/1 on FanDuel. He's 9/1 to 12/1 in other places. I like Davis because I wanted a Buffalo player, given how bad Miami's defense is in relation to the other three units on the field. You can
sign up for OddsShopper here!
FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked in the Bills -2.5 -118 at Bookmaker, which turned out to be the correct decision because the best line is currently -2.5 -120 at BetMGM and FanDuel. The sharps are on Buffalo. Perhaps this is because of the line value, or maybe it's because the Dolphins are down a couple of key players, including Connor Williams.
