We've decided to create individual NFL Picks pages for each game. These individual NFL Picks pages will not only post Walt's predictions for each game; they'll also contain NFL spread records, trends and a poll where you can vote on which team covers each game.
Week 4 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Broncos 26 Bears +3 (0 Units) -- Push; $0 Over 46.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50 Player Prop: Roschon Johnson Under 13.5 Receiving Yards -113 (0.9 Units)
Denver Broncos (0-3) at Chicago Bears (0-3) Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
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CHICAGO OFFENSE: I'd like to say that the unit that surrendered 70 points a week ago will play for pride and rebound, but we've seen no evidence that this could happen. The Broncos had a bottom-five defense heading into Week 3, as they surrendered more than 30 points to the Sam Howell-led Redskins. If the Broncos had a veteran-laden defense, I'd say otherwise, but I don't think we'll see any heart from them.
This is good news for Justin Fields, who has been dreadful through three weeks. There is good news here, however, as Fields actually decided to scramble last week. He refused to do so at Tampa, running only twice following the opening drive, but he was willing to use his legs against the Chiefs. Granted, the end result was a blowout loss, but that's because Kansas City has a top-five defense.
The Broncos are dead last in defense. They can't generate pressure on the quarterback or defend the run. This should all benefit Fields, as well as Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Battling a terrible defense for the first time all year, Chicago will have a surprising amount of offensive success.
DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos should do well in the scoring department as well. The Bears would have the worst-ranked defense in the NFL if it weren't for the Broncos, after all.
Like the Broncos, the Bears can't generate any pressure. Russell Wilson's pass blocking has been below average thus far, but he'll have all the time in the world to locate Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who will be going against a group of cornerbacks comprised of Jaylon Johnson and a bunch of scrubs.
Surprisingly, the Bears aren't terrible against the run. They rank 12th in that regard somehow, so those expecting Javonte Williams to join in on all the great offensive production might come away disappointed.
RECAP: In my previous write-up, I discussed how a bad team like the Vikings shouldn't be relinquishing four key numbers. The same can be said here, and yet the Broncos are even worse than Minnesota!
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I like the Bears, and I'm even thinking about betting them. This may sound crazy, but keep in mind that Chicago has battled two teams ranked in the top 10 of net EPA this year (Chiefs, Packers). The Buccaneers are right in the middle of the pack (16th). The Bears have looked terrible, but they've had a brutal schedule. Fields has especially faced tough pass rushes, which has been a recipe for disaster behind his poor offensive line.
Things are much different here, however. Instead of battling a top-15 adjusted EPA defense, Fields will be going against a unit ranked dead last in that department. Fields should look much better in this game, much like Kenny Pickett did versus the Raiders after battling two great defenses. It'll also help that he'll be getting a key offensive lineman (Nate Davis) back from a death in the family.
The Broncos have a decent offense, so they'll be able to move the ball as well. However, they have no business being three-point road favorites against anyone - even the Bears.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears had Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson missing in practice. At first I was concerned, but then I wondered how much worse Chicago's defense can be than it already was.
SATURDAY NOTES: As if these defenses weren't bad enough, both will be missing some key players. The Broncos will be without Josey Jewell, their do-it-all linebacker, while the Bears will be down their top defensive backs, Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson. I'm not a totals guy, but this screams over. As for the side, I still like Chicago because the Broncos don't deserve to be three-point road favorites over anyone. By the way, I finally got an answer as to why Denver had so much sharp money going its way in Weeks 2-3. I asked a professional bettor this question in this video:
NFL PLAYER PROP: I've been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Roschon Johnson Under 13.5 Receiving Yards -113. Johnson has gotten work in the offense, but mostly in garbage time. It's unlikely that there will be garbage time in the Broncos-Bears game. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!
SATURDAY NOTES II: I hate totals, but this one seems way off. I like the over with these teams being terrible. I think this will be a 27-24 game of some sort, so I'll bet a bit on the over.
FINAL THOUGHTS: No real update here. I'm not betting either side, but I have a half unit on the over. The sharps haven't touched this game either.
