Ravens at Browns Week 4 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Line: Ravens by 2. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: No team in the NFL has a better defense than Cleveland at the moment. The Browns rank first in defensive EPA, as their monstrous front has crushed the opposition in every regard. Myles Garrett and company put immense pressure on quarterbacks and also stuff the run.

The Browns have a great matchup edge in this contest if the Ravens can't welcome back their two injured offensive linemen. Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum have missed multiple games now, so if they're both out again, this will make life extremely difficult for Lamar Jackson. It also should be noted that even if at least one of them returns, there's no guarantee that they'll be healthy.

Lamar Jackson has been sloppy with the football this year. He fumbled several times in both Weeks 1 and 3. One is an accident, but two is a trend, so this is something that could continue in this game. Making matters worse for Jackson, the Browns have done a great job of defending tight ends, so Mark Andrews could be limited.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If you remove quarterback from every team, you could make the case that the Browns have the best roster in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is really the only question mark on his team, so it's extremely encouraging that Watson performed well for the first time last week.

Then again, this should have been expected because the Titans have a miserable secondary. The Ravens ordinarily don't, but as with the offensive line, they've been missing multiple starters, as Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams have been sidelined. Even if one returns, there's no guarantee he'll be 100 percent. Humphrey's absence has been especially harmful for the Ravens, as the rest of the cornerbacks have struggled mightily.

The cornerbacks aren't the only injured players, as the team's top edge rusher, Odafe Oweh, was sidelined last week as well. Oweh is the Ravens' only viable edge rusher, so if he misses action again, Watson won't have to worry about any sort of pass rush.

RECAP: I'm not sure what to make of this game at the moment because the Ravens have so many injuries. They were down tons of key players against the Colts, which ultimately cost them a victory. If they get some of them back, they should be more competitive. Then again, there's no guarantee that the returning players will even be 100 percent.

What we do know is that Cleveland's defense is legit. The Browns have the No. 1 defensive EPA in the NFL. They have the second-ranked pass rush, which will be a problem for the Ravens if they're missing multiple linemen again. Cleveland is also third versus the run, so the Baltimore backs won't get much.

All of this makes me sound like I want to pick the Browns, and I do. However, I just don't trust Watson enough to wager on his team. Watson had a great game against the Titans, but was going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Then again, the Ravens won't be able to do much versus the pass if they're down two important defensive backs once more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens are still missing plenty of players, but Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum both returned to Wednesday's practice, which should give the Ravens a better chance to block Cleveland's stellar front.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to Cleveland -1.5 in some places because there's a chance Deshaun Watson could be sidelined. I personally view this as a positive because the Cleveland players will be trying 110 percent with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting. Also, the Ravens have so many more injuries. Tyler Linderbaum and Marcus Williams could return, but Baltimore will still be without Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Odafe Oweh, and now Rashod Bateman. I'm going to pencil in two units on Cleveland right now, but stay tuned for future updates.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I've been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Zay Flowers Longest Reception Under 20.5 -110. The Browns' dominant defensive line will make it difficult for Lamar Jackson to throw deep passes. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Deshaun Watson is out, so Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start for the Browns. I actually like Cleveland here, as backing a good team playing its backup quarterback is often a great strategy. The Browns will give 110 percent, while the Ravens are more banged up than I thought because Marcus Williams is out. This will be a three-unit bet. The best number is +2 -104 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven't taken either side.