Chig Okonkwo to Score First Touchdown +2000 (0.25 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Titans. 
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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I don't think there's any doubt that Joe Burrow should have sat on Monday night. Burrow didn't aggravate his calf injury like he did in Week 2, but he easily could have. Burrow wasn't even needed in the win, as Jake Browning could have dinked and dunked the same way Burrow did.
Burrow is not going downfield at all, which is problematic for the Bengals in this matchup because defending the deep pass is Tennessee's defensive weakness. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins would have great matchups if Burrow were completely healthy, but that's not the case.
The Bengals were able to prevail on the legs of Joe Mixon, who broke free for the game's only offensive touchdown in the second half. Mixon was able to take advantage of the Rams' 22nd-ranked ground defense. He won't have nearly as much success in this contest, as the Titans are seventh against the run.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Bengals won't be able to run the ball very well, the Titans should be able to do so. It was puzzling that Sean McVay didn't attempt to attack the Bengals on the ground, given that Cincinnati is weak to the rush. The Titans will certainly do so with Derrick Henry.
Establishing Henry will be crucial. We just saw what the Bengals did to the Rams' offensive line on Monday night, sacking Matthew Stafford six times. Granted, this was the result of two Rams blockers suffering injuries, but it's not like Tennessee protects Ryan Tannehill well.
If Tannehill is able to operate in favorable down-and-distance situations, he'll have success throwing into a Cincinnati secondary that has not performed well this year. It'll also help that DeAndre Hopkins will have another week of recovery time.
RECAP: I planned on betting the Bengals on Monday night. I assumed Burrow would be sidelined, which would have opened up an opportunity to bet on Cincinnati with a backup quarterback. Instead, Burrow pushed to play and eventually got the nod. Because of this, I switched my selection to the Rams and bet them at +3.5.
This may seem odd for those of you who have never read my picks before, but I like betting good teams with their backup quarterback because the other players often give 110 percent. Conversely, I don't like wagering on injured quarterbacks because the oddsmakers don't adjust to that dynamic enough. No one should have been surprised that Cincinnati's offense was so limited Monday night despite battling the NFL's 26th-ranked defense.
I will continue to fade the Bengals as long as Burrow isn't 100 percent. The Titans have a better defense than the Rams despite their issues in the secondary. That hole would ordinarily be a problem versus a healthy Burrow and his receivers, but that's not the case at the moment. Burrow won't be able to take advantage of the Tennessee's liability. On the other hand, the Bengals 21st-ranked defense will be exposed. Cincinnati can't stop the run at all, so Henry will be able to carry the Titans to victory.
I'm going to bet Tennessee heavily. I think we can get some leverage by fading the Bengals at the moment, and I'm a fan of betting on good coaching coming off blowout losses. Mike Vrabel is 7-4-1 against the spread after losing by 14 or more. Vrabel is also excellent at covering as an underdog, which he is now after a four-point swing from the advance line of Tennessee -1.5.
So, you're telling me that we get to fade an injured quarterback and bet on quality line value, all while backing Vrabel as an underdog along with the sharps? Sign me up for that.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping to get a +3, but the line seems to be heading the other day, with +2 replacing the +2.5 lines from earlier in the week. This is a huge sharp side.
SATURDAY NOTES: Still no +3 line, and nothing major on the injury report. Again, the sharps love the Titans.
PLAYER PROP: I'm going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I'll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the
OddsShopper tool to get the best value. I like Chig Okonkwo at 20/1 on BetMGM. He's listed at 19/1 on FanDuel and 17/1 or 16/1 elsewhere. I like Okonkwo because the Bengals struggle to defend tight ends, and Treylon Burks is out, so Okonkwo could have his best game of the season. You can
sign up for OddsShopper here!
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on the Titans, though the pro action has slowed down a bit later in the week. I'm going to buy the half point because three is such a key number. The best +3 is for -122 vig at Bookmaker.
