Los Angeles Rams (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
Line: Rams by 1. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Colts. 
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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It's hard to imagine Anthony Richardson not playing this game, as he'll be two weeks removed from a concussion. If so, the Colts will be hoping that he can last a full game, which hasn't occurred yet in his very brief NFL career.
Richardson has a nice matchup edge in this game. The Rams have poor linebackers who don't stand a chance against Richardson and his scrambles. The Rams are pretty poor when it comes to defending the run, ranking 22nd against it, so like Richardson, Zack Moss will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.
There's also a decent chance that the Colts are able to move the ball well aerially. Richardson has a very favorable matchup in that regard, as the Rams are dead last in coverage rankings. This wasn't much of an issue Monday night because Joe Burrow was too injured to throw downfield, but Richardson will be able to connect with Michael Pittman Jr. early and often.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams had an extremely ugly showing on this side of the ball in the Monday loss to the Bengals. Matthew Stafford had no chance behind his offensive line, especially when Alaric Jackson and Joe Noteboom were knocked out of the game. He took six sacks, as his offense was limited to only nine points until garbage time.
Stafford will face the same issue in this matchup if Jackson and Noteboom can't return on a short week. The Colts rank eighth in pressure rate, so they'll put plenty of heat on Stafford, forcing more sacks and careless throws. Stafford will still have some completions to Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee, but keeping drives alive will be a problem.
The Rams made the mistake of not running very much on Monday night despite battling a defense that is below average at defending the rush. Kyren Williams won't be able to take advantage of such opportunities in this contest because the Colts are eighth versus the run.
RECAP: This seems like a good matchup for the Colts. Indianapolis, as mentioned earlier, has the eighth-ranked pass rush in the NFL, so the team will be able to pressure Stafford, who was battered against the Bengals after two starting blockers exited the game. Meanwhile, the Rams' dreadful linebacking corps will struggle to contain Richardson, provided that he's able to return from his concussion.
Despite these advantages, this is a near-pick 'em spread, which seems incorrect. All the metrics say that the Colts are the better team. Why, then, aren't the Colts favored by more than a single point when they're at home and have more time to prepare for this game, as opposed to the Rams, who are playing an early 1 p.m. start game following a Mondya night affair? I made this line Indianapolis -3, so there's definitely value available with the host.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson had a full practice Wednesday, so he's ready to return. But what about the two Rams offensive linemen who suffered injuries on Monday night? The Rams haven't practiced as of Wednesday, so it's impossible to know their status at the moment.
SATURDAY NOTES: I was excited to bet the Colts if the Rams were going to miss Alaric Jackson. That appears to be the case, as Jackson hasn't practiced all week. However, this line didn't move, and that's because the Colts have their own injuries. The Rams will be down two offensive linemen - Ryan Kelly, Bernhard Raimann - and DeForest Buckner is unlikely to play. I'm not going to bet this game after all, which is a bummer.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams are favored for some reason. The Colts are missing two offensive linemen, but two of their questionable players - Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner - will be active. I still like the Colts, but this is a 50-50 game for me.
