We've decided to create individual NFL Picks pages for each game. These individual NFL Picks pages will not only post Walt's predictions for each game; they'll also contain NFL spread records, trends and a poll where you can vote on which team covers each game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1) Line: Saints by 4. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Saints.
Video of the Week: I love Steamed Hams clips. This time, Steamed Hams is LOST.
That's perfect. The black smoke monster, the flashbacks, the music. I miss that show so much. Reboot time!
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Much can change over the week, but reports indicate that Derek Carr won't be able to play against the Buccaneers. If so, it'll be Jameis Winston attempting to get revenge against his former team. While that narrative is appealing, it must also be noted that the Saints didn't score a single point after Winston entered the game versus the short-handed Packers.
Then again, it's not like Carr was lighting up the scoreboard, as he was responsible for just 10 points, with the other seven coming on a punt return. The offensive struggles would continue here if there weren't a special circumstance in this game, as the Buccaneers should have the advantage in the trenches with their pass rush beating up on a New Orleans offensive line that can't pass protect very well.
There is a special circumstance, however, and that would be Alvin Kamara's return from suspension. The Saints are a completely different team with Kamara, who looked like his pre-2022 explosive self in the preseason. The Buccaneers just allowed some big gains to D'Andre Swift, so they could have issues defending Kamara.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Saints won't have such problems defending Tampa's ground attack. Rachaad White is a pretty poor runner, and the Saints are excellent when it comes to putting the clamps on the run, as evidenced by their ability to limit Derrick Henry in Week 1.
It'll all be up to Baker Mayfield, who finally faced some adversity Monday night. Mayfield had the luxury of taking on two of the weaker secondaries in the NFL to start the season. He predictably faltered versus the Eagles, and he'll have similar problems against the Saints, who can erase Mike Evans with Marshon Lattimore.
Mayfield will also have to deal with the Saints' pass rush, which has improved markedly this season. Carl Granderson has taken a big step, while Bryan Bresee has been stellar despite being a rookie. The Buccaneers have a poor offensive line, so Mayfield will constantly be under pressure.
RECAP: I'm disappointed in myself for not betting against the Buccaneers on Monday night. They were obvious 2-0 frauds. I'm not a big fan of the Saints either, but they at least have a potent weapon joining the team in Kamara. Plus, their defense seems legit, although they've battled some weak competition.
I have interest in the Saints with Kamara returning, but I'm not crazy about this number. Asking a mediocre team to win by four or more versus an opponent that isn't terrible is a tough request. I also don't like that the Buccaneers are getting sharp money, but perhaps that'll change during the week.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Derek Carr missed Wednesday's practice. It sounds like Jameis Winston will start, but the "good team with backup quarterback" dynamic doesn't apply because I don't think I'd deem the Saints to be a good team.
SATURDAY NOTES: It was suspected that Derek Carr would be out, but he got in a limited practice on Friday and is questionable. If Carr plays, I'll have interest in betting the Buccaneers at +3.5. Stay tuned for updates!
FINAL THOUGHTS: Derek Carr will play, so the Saints are a fade because he's probably not 100 percent. I have the urge to switch to the Buccaneers, but it's too late to do that. There's been a bit of sharp money on the Buccaneers.
