Player Prop: Nico Collins Under 53.5 Receiving Yards -113 (0.7 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Steelers. 
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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It's amazing what a great matchup will do for a struggling player. Kenny Pickett looked like a total disaster through two weeks, but had the misfortune of battling two top-four defenses (49ers, Browns). Pickett had the luxury of taking on the 31st-ranked defense last week, and the results were great, as Pickett easily had the best performance of his season thus far.
Pickett's matchup here isn't as easy, but it's still far more favorable than his first two opponents. The Texans are 22nd in defensive EPA, though much of that come with their struggles against the run. They're somewhat better versus the pass, but are still in the bottom half of the NFL in that regard. They could be better, but they've suffered multiple injuries to the secondary, so this is a matchup where George Pickens could shine.
If the Steelers used the proper personnel, they could take advantage of the Texans' bottom-five ground defense. However, offensive coordinator Matt Canada insists on running Najee Harris into the ground, which has been a huge blunder. Harris wasn't so bad last week, but he won't be able to take full advantage of the Texans' weakness. Jaylen Warren would obviously stand a better chance of doing so.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: I was puzzled when the Panthers decided on Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud. Not only did I deem Stroud to be the better prospect, but the Carolina coaches did as well. Management wanted Young, however. It's still early to make a full determination, but it appears as though they've made the wrong decision thus far. While Young has struggled, Stroud has thrived. In fact, he hasn't thrown an interception yet!
Stroud's interception-less streak may come to an end in this game, however. The Steelers have a ferocious pass rush that could give Stroud some problems, especially if Laremy Tunsil is sidelined again. Tunsil's absence didn't hurt last week because the Jaguars were too busy shooting themselves in the foot to take advantage of it. The Steelers certainly will.
Pittsburgh is weaker to the run than the pass at the moment because Cameron Heyward is injured. I'd say the Texans could take advantage of this with Dameon Pierce, but the second-year running back hasn't performed well this year. Perhaps that'll change this week.
RECAP: This spread makes no sense. The Steelers closed as three-point underdogs at Las Vegas, yet they're three-point favorites in Houston. This is saying the Raiders are six points better than the Texans, which is complete nonsense. I'd argue Houston is better than Vegas!
I don't think the Steelers' offense is playing well enough to warrant the team surrendering four key numbers in this matchup. The defense has been great, but if Tunsil returns to action - he was close last week - then Houston will have a decent enough offensive line to give Stroud a chance.
Another reason to consider backing the Texans is that the Steelers could be distracted by next week's game against the Ravens. This was already a bad spot for Mike Tomlin, as his teams have historically struggled as road favorites following a victory. I'm not a big trend guy, but it must be noted that the Steelers are 14-29 against the spread as road favorites coming off a win under Tomlin.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's some sharp money on the Texans, but not nearly as much as I thought there would be, considering the illogical point spread that we have.
SATURDAY NOTES: I'm switching my pick to the Steelers, and I'm even going to bet them. The Texans have so many injuries, it's ridiculous. Their offensive line is especially in shambles, with the entire left side of the line out. This is going to be devastating against Pittsburgh's pass rush. The offensive line didn't matter last week because the Jaguars constantly shot themselves in the foot. It'll matter against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
NFL PLAYER PROP: I've been using
OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Nico Collins under total receiving yards is 53.5 -113 at FanDuel. The Texans are going to have trouble sustaining an offense with their blocking issues versus the Steelers. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can
sign up for OddsShopper here!
SATURDAY NOTES II: I'm going to bet a couple of units on the Steelers. The Texans' win last week was very fluky, and I don't know how they're going to block the Steelers. Also, the advance spread was Pittsburgh -4.5, so we're getting great value.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm going to buy the half point. Bookmaker is offering -2.5 -120, so I'll bet that for two units. The sharps haven't taken a side.
After two wins, the Steelers have this easy game before battling the Ravens.
