Raiders at Chargers Week 4 NFL Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: There didn't appear to be anything wrong with Jimmy Garoppolo after he got dinged up on Sunday night, as he was able to return to action without missing any time. However, he is now in concussion protocol. There's a chance he'll miss this game, and if he does, the Raiders will go with either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell.

This would ordinarily be problematic for a couple of reasons. First, Hoyer is a washed-up veteran, while O'Connell has no experience. O'Connell would be the better of the two options because he looked terrific in the preseason, so the Raiders can at least hope that they have a Brock Purdy situation on their hands. Second, the Raiders will be battling the Chargers, who are ranked 28th in defense. None of the talented Charger defenders are playing well, including Joey Bosa, who is nursing some injury, and Derwin James, who got hurt versus the Vikings.

The Chargers haven't been able to defend anything, so the Raiders will be able to move the ball even if Hoyer or O'Connell start. Josh Jacobs figures to have his best game yet this year, while Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will be open all day against a miserable secondary.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: James wasn't the only Charger to suffer an injury against the Vikings. Mike Williams tore his ACL, which was especially unfortunate because he was enjoying a stellar season thus far. This injury would have hurt a lot more in the past, but the Chargers took measures to protect themselves, drafting Quentin Johnston in the first round of April's draft. Johnston and Joshua Palmer will allow the Chargers to continue posting incredible numbers.

Of course, Austin Ekeler's return would help, too. Joshua Kelley has struggled as a replacement, but there's a chance Ekeler could be back this week. The Raiders are just 22nd against the run, so Ekeler will perform well if he can take the field once more.

This all sets up well for Justin Herbert, who will continue to torch the opposition. The Raiders are just 27th in pressure rate, so Herbert will have all the time he needs to shred Las Vegas' secondary.

RECAP: It's still unclear who will be quarterbacking the Raiders this week. That makes this game difficult to handicap at the moment. If Brian Hoyer is named the starter, this line will balloon past -7. If it's Garoppolo, the spread will remain about the same.

I would like the Raiders if Garoppolo is able to start. I ordinarily like to back reserve quarterbacks, but only good ones on solid teams. The Raiders don't have a quality NFL roster because of their poor defense and pedestrian offensive line, so this doesn't apply to them. Thus, I'd need Garoppolo to be named starter in order to bet the Raiders at +5.5, which seems like a good price, considering how bad the Chargers have played defensively. Now, perhaps this will change at any time because the Chargers have plenty of talent, but we've seen no evidence of that.

Unless the Chargers suddenly begin playing up to their potential, they have no business being favorites of nearly a touchdown, even against the Raiders. Again, things will change if the Raiders have a quarterback switch, but we don't know what's happening in that regard at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jimmy Garoppolo missed Wednesday's practice. I've seen some reports suggesting that Garoppolo will play, but we'll see. Nothing is set in stone yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Wow, the Chargers' injury report is ridiculous. They're down two of their top three weapons (Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler), their starting center, their top two safeties, and quite possibly Joey Bosa. The only issue right now is Jimmy Garoppolo, who is still in concussion protocol despite being limited Thursday and Friday. If Garoppolo plays, I'll be betting the Raiders heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Jimmy Garoppolo is out, prompting this line to rise to +6 despite so many Chargers being sidelined. I'm going to bet the Raiders if Aidan O'Connell starts. If it's Brian Hoyer, no thanks.

PLAYER PROP: I'm going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I'll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. Jakobi Meyers at 21/1 on FanDuel is insane. The next-best number is 14/1 on DraftKings. I get that the Raiders will be using a backup quarterback, but I like Aidan O'Connell. Plus, Meyers is a stud. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Aidan O'Connell will start, which is music to my ears. I just didn't want Brian Hoyer to play. I'm going to bet three units on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some question about Austin Ekeler and Alohi Gilman playing, but they're both out for the Chargers. The Raiders are starting their backup quarterback, but are otherwise much healthier than the Chargers. I'm betting three units on the Raiders at +7 -115 at DraftKings. The sharps are on the Raiders.