Player Prop: Hunter Henry to Score First Touchdown +2000 (0.25 Units)
New England Patriots (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
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DALLAS OFFENSE: I ended up betting on the Cardinals first-half line against the Cowboys because Dallas was down multiple offensive linemen, including Zack Martin. It's unclear if Martin and Tyler Biadasz will be able to return this week, or if they'll be 100 percent if they end up playing. If they're out or hindered, this will create a big problem because the pass rush is the best aspect of New England's roster.
We've seen Dak Prescott struggle with mediocre or worse protection in the past. He's the sort of quarterback who needs everything to be perfect to thrive, and that's certainly not the case right now unless Martin and Biadasz can return to action.
I'm sure the Cowboys would love to take the ball out of Prescott's hands and feed it to Tony Pollard, who has gotten elite usage thus far. Pollard, however, will have his hands full against a New England defense that ranks 10th versus the rush.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The two offensive line injuries weren't the only issues for the Cowboys, as Trevon Diggs was missed as well. The Pro Bowl cornerback would have been very useful as Josh Dobbs was slicing through the secondary with ease.
Diggs was the Cowboys' best cornerback by far, as Stephon Gilmore has taken a step backward in effectiveness. This could be a problem against Mac Jones, who has performed much better this year now that he has a real offensive coordinator. It helps that some of his offensive linemen, including Trent Brown, have returned from injury recently.
Speaking of those linemen, they'll be able to blast open running lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas is 18th versus the run, so Stevenson and Elliott should run well to set up Jones with easier passing opportunities.
RECAP: Of all the games on this week's slate, this has the greatest spread disparity between the real line and my calculated spread. The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown, yet I have them only at -2! If you think this is ridiculous, consider that EPA has them at just -3.5.
Anyway you slice it, this spread is too high because everyone wants to bet the Cowboys, especially against a Patriots team that is just 1-2 and doesn't have any sexy players on the roster. However, New England is very underrated. The Patriots gave the Eagles and Dolphins everything they could handle, and they even outgained Philadelphia. I'd say the Eagles and Cowboys are rather close in overall talent, so if the Patriots could outgain the Eagles, they can certainly do the same to Dallas. Now, you may argue that the Eagles were looking ahead to their Thursday game against the Vikings, but the Cowboys seem to be in the same spot because they battle the 49ers next week.
It also should be noted that the Patriots are the healthier team. The Cowboys were down two offensive linemen versus Arizona, and if that's the case once again, the Patriots will be able to take advantage of that liability with their skilled pass rush. New England, meanwhile, has gotten its injured blockers back, so protecting Jones seems like a realistic possibility, even against Dallas.
This is my top play of the week. I love the idea of fading a bloated favorite that could be looking ahead, all while backing an underrated team that is close to being 3-0 right now.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ugh, are all the +7s really gone already? The sharps pounced on the number, perhaps as a response to seeing Dallas' offensive linemen on the injury report with missed Wednesday practices. The best +7 I see is for -120 vig at BetMGM, but perhaps we'll get something better.
SATURDAY NOTES: There's a chance Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz will be out after both being DNP-limited-limited this week. However, there's no telling if they'll be 100 percent, and Tyron Smith will be sidelined. I still love the Patriots.
PLAYER PROP: I'm going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I'll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the
OddsShopper tool to get the best value. Hunter Henry has been a touchdown machine this year. He's been playing in the slot, which has always been a productive position for Bill Belichick. I like Henry at 20/1 on BetMGM. You can
sign up for OddsShopper here!
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is coming in on the Patriots, which is not a surprise because this line is so inflated.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are on the Patriots. They've taken this line down from +7 to +6, and even +5.5 in some sportsbooks. The best line is +6.5 -115 at Bookmaker and BetMGM.
