Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
Line: 49ers by 14.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: 49ers. 
A reminder that
Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is called Jerks of Las Vegas: The Grass Is Always Greener. I met five girls in Las Vegas who told me their opinion on whether or not I should move there.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Part of the reason why I thought the Cardinals would be the worst team in the NFL heading into the season was because they had no pass rushers on the roster I had ever heard of. Dennis Gardeck, Cameron Thomas and some other players have thrived at generating pressure.
The 49ers, whose right tackle replacement for Mike McGlinchey has been poor, may struggle a bit with Arizona's pass rush. However, it's more likely that Kyle Shanahan will be able to game plan around that. Besides, Brock Purdy will be able to successfully attack the middle of the field, which is what Shanahan likes his quarterbacks to do. The Cardinals have struggled to defend this area for a long time, so that will come back to bite them.
Something else to consider is that the Cardinals are worse versus the run than the pass. In fact, Arizona is 27th against the rush, which obviously bodes very poorly in an impending matchup against Christian McCaffrey.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Joshua Dobbs has also exceeded expectations for the Cardinals. He has been very sharp as a passer and has been able to utilize his legs at key moments. Perhaps it shouldn't be so surprising that Dobbs has succeeded, given that he's a smart player who already had experience in the system.
Dobbs will have his work cut out for him in this matchup, however, because he won't be able to rely on the run or establish the middle of the field, given that the 49ers defend that area so well.
One area Dobbs can exploit is targeting his receivers against San Francisco's cornerbacks. Aside from Charvarius Ward, the 49er cornerbacks have not played all that well this year, so Dobbs can have some nice connections with his receivers as long as he has ample time in the pocket. Of course, Nick Bosa may have something to say about that.
RECAP: Three weeks ago, this seemed like the easiest matchup in the world. How could the 49ers possibly lose to the sorry Cardinals, who cut Colt McCoy in favor of Dobbs? Well, Dobbs has played better than anyone could have imagined, while the defense has also outperformed expectations.
Despite the changes we've seen, there has been no movement in the line. This spread would have been San Francisco -14 three weeks ago, and yet that's still the case. Perhaps the Cardinals will come back down to Earth and regress to the mean, but it doesn't seem right that there shouldn't be any adjustment to the spread.
However, there might be a reason for that. The 49ers are the better team by far, and they'll have extra prep time. Plus, at some point, Arizona's carriage will transform back into a pumpkin. There's a chance the 49ers will look ahead to their game against the Cowboys, but given that this is a divisional game, and the Cardinals just beat Dallas, I think it's more likely that San Francisco will be focused. If so, the 49ers will likely be able to cover this big number.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both of San Francisco's receivers are on the injury report. Deebo Samuel didn't practice Wednesday, but Brandon Aiyuk got in a limited session. If both are out, I'll be on Arizona for sure.
SATURDAY NOTES: Deebo Samuel is likely out this week, but that doesn't bother me because Bradon Aiyuk isn't on the injury report. I'm still on the 49ers for no units.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps like the 49ers. The Cardinals could be the 2023 version of the 2022 Falcons - a bad team that covered the spread a lot early and then became overrated.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I actually thought about betting the 49ers, but the sharps have taken this line to -14.5. I don't see a viable -14 anywhere. If you're wondering why this is important, 14 is the fourth-most-likely result of any football game.
