Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 8:20 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs. 
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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs suffered a scary moment when Patrick Mahomes came up limping just prior to halftime against the Bears. He grabbed his leg in pain, and for a second, Kansas City fans may have realized that any Super Bowl aspirations were finished.
Mahomes, however, came out of the tunnel and engineered a touchdown drive, so he appeared to be perfectly fine. I don't need to tell you what this means for the Jets. New York has some talented defensive backs, but the team really struggles to defend the middle of the field, which is where Mahomes attacks with Taylor Swift's new boyfriend. Travis Kelce will be the latest player to torch the Jets' linebackers.
The Chiefs will be able to run the ball as well. The Jets have a rush-funnel defense, so Isiah Pacheco and the other Kansas City running backs have a bright outlook in this game.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: If this were the Chiefs of about a year ago, Zach Wilson would have a chance to rebound off two horrible performances. Unfortunately for Wilson, these Chiefs are not the same ones we remember from the start of the 2022 season.
The Chiefs are so much better defensively. It began late last year when some of their younger players blossomed. Now, in 2023, they're even better than they were during their playoff run. They're a top-five defense according to the metrics, and they get after the quarterback extremely well with Chris Jones back from his holdout. This is terrible news for the Jets, given how bad their offensive line is at the moment.
The Chiefs are weaker to the run than the pass, but I don't see the Jets establishing the run against them. Breece Hall isn't handling a large number of snaps, so while he could break a long gain, he won't consistently threaten Kansas City on the ground. Dalvin Cook, who looks like a shell of his former self, probably won't have much positive production.
RECAP: Some people were backing the Bears last week because they said that the Chiefs "usually don't blow teams out." While this was true for past performances, it wasn't indicative of things to come. I believe we'll see many more blowouts in Kansas City's favor because the defense has gotten so much better. The Chiefs of old would allow opponents to hang around because of a leaky defense, but that's not the case anymore. We saw a hint of that in the Chicago game.
With that in mind, I like the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game. This line may seem high until you realize that Zach Wilson and his poor offensive line have no chance against the Chiefs' top-five defense. Mahomes, meanwhile, can beat any defense, so this has all the makings of a blowout.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. There's nothing on the injury report, while the line has remained stagnant at -9.5.
SATURDAY NOTES: I have no idea why the sharps are on the Jets. Do they not realize that the Chiefs have an elite defense now and will be blowing teams out often?
SATURDAY NOTES II: I'm going to bet the Jets under points total for this game. I don't see how they reliably score more than 10 points against the Chiefs' No. 4 defense. The best number is 16.5 -115 at Caesars.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm still shocked that the sharps are betting the Jets. Why!?
FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote earlier that the sharps were on the Jets. Well, some late pro money came in on the Chiefs, so that has balanced out. I still like the Chiefs for a couple of units. The best line was -7.5 -106 at Bookmaker, but that disappeared as I was typing this. Now, it's -7.5 -110 at FanDuel and BetMGM.
