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We've decided to create individual NFL Picks pages for each game. These individual NFL Picks pages will not only post Walt's predictions for each game; they'll also contain NFL spread records, trends and a poll where you can vote on which team covers each game. Go here for Walt's NFL Picks page. Week 4 NFL Picks: Choose Game |
Seahawks 24 |
Seahawks ()
at
Giants ()
Mon, Oct 2 at 08:15 PM ET Giants by 1.50 Total: 56 SEA 78.6% NYG 10.7% |
Giants 3 |
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Week 4 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Seahawks 24
Giants +2.5 -105 (0.5 Units) - Caesars
Over 47 (0 Units)
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 47.
Monday, Oct. 2, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, where tonight, the dumb New Jersey Giants take on the Seattle Supersonics. Guys, we had some serious news this week, so let's talk about that game instead. The defensive coordinator guy just had his house raided by the FBI. This guy was my friend, and I even had a lot of sleepovers at his house. The FBI must have had the wrong guy because he was super nice. He even had lots of pictures of kids on his computer. Only nice people have lots of pictures of kids!
Emmitt: Thanks, Sabin. I belief the term you looking for is child photography. I personally like ant photography. I take my photography machine and I hold it up to any ant I seen on the ground. And then I save all the photography I take in my scratch book. And on day when I can't not find any photography of ant, I take photography of aunt, who are lady who have kid but they not their kid but somebody else.
Reilly: I agree, Emmitt, it's great to have a hobby. Whether it's pictures of kids or pictures of ants, or pictures of aunts. But guys, what if the FBI comes to my house and takes my pictures? I have lots of pictures on my computer. When Mother says it's OK to have computer time, which is only an hour in the afternoon, I spend most of the time looking at the pictures
Tollefson: Kevin, you are a bigger fool than I ever imagined. What sort of idiot leaves behind digital evidence? Don't you know how great it would be if I had pictures of my female slaves? I'd love that, but I don't want to get caught. If I get a sniff of the FBI, I throw my female slaves into the ocean, where they belong. Aside from the kitchen, of course.
Reilly: Tolly, I don't have much experience in this. I need help destroying my pictures, as precious as they are. Senator John Feasterman, you're a smart guy who is always on the ball. What should I do?
John Fetterman: To be or not to be, that is the cabbage. Mufasa stopped the baker standing on the pig parker. Jones said that the kettle was bright and full of candlesticks by the bay. Toaster, toaster where is the keyhole in the sink? Wednesday is pizza day, you son of a b*tch!
Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! And speaking of pizza, all of this talk about the game is making me hungry. Hey, Schefter, you're looking at your phone. Can you order a pizza for me? Mother signed a permission slip saying I can have pizza during work.
Adam Schefter: Kevin, I was looking at my phone because we have some breaking news. The pizza you ate at work last week had pubes in it, Kevin. This is from someone who doesn't like you, Kevin, which is pretty much everyone in this building. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go the Pfizer CEO's house and massage his balls. Back to you, Kevin!
Reilly: So you're not going to order pizza for me? What a jerk. Anyway, let's get back to the pictures. Mr. President, will you pardon me if the FBI arrests me?
Joe Biden: Now look here, you intoxicated security camera. I'm Joe Biden and I'm running for Senate re-election, and I have the power to control the FBI. If I say, "Hey FBI agent, arrest that breakfast cereal guy at the pool," he's gonna arrest the breakfast cereal. If I say, "Hey, that little girl with the braids is looking real old, so get her and take her to my shower," he's gonna arrest the breakfast cereal. Now, here's the deal: If there's a problem with pictures on your computer, you gotta tell them that you're going to withhold financial aid unless they fire the prosecutor. I told the guy, you have six hours before I get the plane. If he's not fired by then, you're not getting the money. And here's the kicker, Jack: We're gonna impeach the next president who's not me for the same thing even though he doesn't really do it. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm gonna eat the ice cream, spaghetti, I mean choco-choco chip and then the girl in the shower, I'm gonna drink her blood.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just revealed what I was impeached for the second time, which was a total disgrace and a total disaster, and Sleepy Joe is a total nut job, believe me, I know a lot about nut jobs, more than anyone could ever know about nut jobs, believe me, and Sleepy Joe is the biggest nut job of them all, and everyone agrees the election was totally rigged, not only did the voting machines totally rig it, but it was China, where the China virus came from, I call it the China virus because it came from China, which is very creative, no one has ever thought about it before because I have the best ideas, but China, they made the China virus and they also totally rigged the election, and so did the aliens, the aliens they love Sleepy Joe Biden because they're a total disgrace and they made the alien virus because that's where the virus came from, those aliens, they only send their rapists and drug dealers, if only they sent their best, the aliens would have totally rigged the election my way, but the worst aliens voted for Sleepy Joe.
Wolfley: DONALD MONK, I FEAR I HAVE CAUGHT THE ALIEN VIRUS. SHOULD I INJECT MYSELF WITH AN UNTESTED VACCINE EVEN THOUGH ALIEN VIRUS HAS A 99.98-PERCENT SURVIVAL RATE UNLESS YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT PHONE BOOTHS WITH TOOTHPICKS FOR ARMS, AND THEN THE NUMBER DROPS TO 71.9 PERCENT?
Reilly: Shut up, idiots, what do I do about the pictures on my computer? I'm gonna be arrested like my defensive coordinator friend who had lots of sleepovers at my house!
Jay Cutler: No one cares about your Nick Foles pictures, dude.
Reilly: But what about the Nick Foles picture I have in my bikini! I even carry that one in my wallet!
Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you're discussing things people have in wallets, Kevin. Let's begin with Nick Foles bikini pictures, Kevin. That's pretty weird, Kevin. How about photo IDs, Kevin? Then there's cash, Kevin. Everyone has cash, Kevin, especially loser adults like you who still get an allowance from their mother, Kevin. Another thing in wallets are credit cards, Kevin. Then there's insurance cards, Kevin. Don't forget AAA cards, Kevin. Then there's pictures of loved ones, Kevin. I imagine no one has a picture of you, Kevin, because no one loves you, Kevin.
Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, MOTHER TOTALLY HAS A PICTURE OF ME, AND SO DOES NICK FOLES, I SENT A PICTURE OF ME IN A BIKINI SO HE COULD PUT IT IN HIS WALLET! We'll be back after this!
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants had a dreadful offensive showing last Thursday. The score made the game look closer than it really was because New York generated just 150 net yards of offense.
Of course, the Giants were missing their two best offensive players: Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley. It's unclear if they'll be able to return this week, but Thomas likely has a good chance. He'll be needed because the Giants have a miserable offensive line. Seattle doesn't get after the quarterback consistently, but New York's offensive line is so bad without Thomas that the Seahawks will be able to rattle Daniel Jones.
Speaking of Jones, it'll be nice for him that he'll get a reprieve from the tough schedule. He has battled the Cowboys and 49ers in two of the three games. Both defenses rank in the top four of EPA. He had more success against the Cardinals (20th), while the Seahawks are 27th. Seattle does nothing well on this side of the ball, so Jones will move the chains more consistently.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: As bad as the Giants' offense is, the defense is even worse. The "stop" unit ranks 30th in defensive EPA, as the unit is like Seattle's in that it doesn't do anything well.
The Seahawks are coming off a game in which they exploded in the second half. A big part of the reason was that the Panthers lost two top defenders, so things opened up for the Seahawks after they were a bit stagnant in the first half. The running game was especially strong, as Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet picked up big chunks of yardage. This should happen again with the Giants ranking 24th versus the run.
New York is even worse against the pass, ranking 30th in that regard. Geno Smith also had a big second half against the Panthers, and that should continue as he'll be able to locate all of his talented receivers.
RECAP: My first instinct was to back the Giants. They're 1-2, but their two losses have been to the 49ers and Cowboys. They could get Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas back from injury. Oh, and Seattle has a miserable defense. The Seahawks' defensive EPA is 27th, so the Giants should be able to move the ball easily against Seattle.
However, I then recalled how bad the Giants are defensively, ranking 30th in that regard. The Seahawks should be able to have their way with the Giants as well. Also, the EPA numbers suggest that the Seahawks should be favored by far more. The EPA line is Seattle -5!
There's too much of a conflict here for me to wager on either side. I'm going to side with the Giants for now because there's sharp money headed in that direction, but I could be talked into Seattle at the moment as well. Hopefully we'll get some data from the injury report to make this selection clearer.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven't seen an injury report yet, so I wonder if the Seahawks will be healthier this week. They haven't been penalized for their injuries yet, but that's bound to happen soon.
SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to bet the Giants if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley returned. Both are out. I'm going to be on the Seahawks, but I won't be betting this game because they have injury issues as well.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update since last night. I don't think I'll be betting this game, as both teams are fades for me.
MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I'm going to bet a half unit on the Giants because a win will take me over $500 for the week. Also, I think this line movement is unwarranted. The Seahawks are not a good team and shouldn't be favored in this spot. I would have more enthusiasm for the Giants if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley were playing, but the Giants can get by without them versus this poor Seattle defense. Speaking of which, this is the softest defense the Giants will have played so far after enduring the gauntlet of Cowboys and 49ers to start the year. I'm looking for a +3, but the best number we have right now is +2 -108 at Bookmaker.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Seahawks. The sharps are on the Giants. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a viable +3 line. The best spread I see is +2.5 -105 at Caesars.
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 47.
Monday, Oct. 2, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, where tonight, the dumb New Jersey Giants take on the Seattle Supersonics. Guys, we had some serious news this week, so let's talk about that game instead. The defensive coordinator guy just had his house raided by the FBI. This guy was my friend, and I even had a lot of sleepovers at his house. The FBI must have had the wrong guy because he was super nice. He even had lots of pictures of kids on his computer. Only nice people have lots of pictures of kids!
Emmitt: Thanks, Sabin. I belief the term you looking for is child photography. I personally like ant photography. I take my photography machine and I hold it up to any ant I seen on the ground. And then I save all the photography I take in my scratch book. And on day when I can't not find any photography of ant, I take photography of aunt, who are lady who have kid but they not their kid but somebody else.
Reilly: I agree, Emmitt, it's great to have a hobby. Whether it's pictures of kids or pictures of ants, or pictures of aunts. But guys, what if the FBI comes to my house and takes my pictures? I have lots of pictures on my computer. When Mother says it's OK to have computer time, which is only an hour in the afternoon, I spend most of the time looking at the pictures
Tollefson: Kevin, you are a bigger fool than I ever imagined. What sort of idiot leaves behind digital evidence? Don't you know how great it would be if I had pictures of my female slaves? I'd love that, but I don't want to get caught. If I get a sniff of the FBI, I throw my female slaves into the ocean, where they belong. Aside from the kitchen, of course.
Reilly: Tolly, I don't have much experience in this. I need help destroying my pictures, as precious as they are. Senator John Feasterman, you're a smart guy who is always on the ball. What should I do?
John Fetterman: To be or not to be, that is the cabbage. Mufasa stopped the baker standing on the pig parker. Jones said that the kettle was bright and full of candlesticks by the bay. Toaster, toaster where is the keyhole in the sink? Wednesday is pizza day, you son of a b*tch!
Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! And speaking of pizza, all of this talk about the game is making me hungry. Hey, Schefter, you're looking at your phone. Can you order a pizza for me? Mother signed a permission slip saying I can have pizza during work.
Adam Schefter: Kevin, I was looking at my phone because we have some breaking news. The pizza you ate at work last week had pubes in it, Kevin. This is from someone who doesn't like you, Kevin, which is pretty much everyone in this building. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go the Pfizer CEO's house and massage his balls. Back to you, Kevin!
Reilly: So you're not going to order pizza for me? What a jerk. Anyway, let's get back to the pictures. Mr. President, will you pardon me if the FBI arrests me?
Joe Biden: Now look here, you intoxicated security camera. I'm Joe Biden and I'm running for Senate re-election, and I have the power to control the FBI. If I say, "Hey FBI agent, arrest that breakfast cereal guy at the pool," he's gonna arrest the breakfast cereal. If I say, "Hey, that little girl with the braids is looking real old, so get her and take her to my shower," he's gonna arrest the breakfast cereal. Now, here's the deal: If there's a problem with pictures on your computer, you gotta tell them that you're going to withhold financial aid unless they fire the prosecutor. I told the guy, you have six hours before I get the plane. If he's not fired by then, you're not getting the money. And here's the kicker, Jack: We're gonna impeach the next president who's not me for the same thing even though he doesn't really do it. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm gonna eat the ice cream, spaghetti, I mean choco-choco chip and then the girl in the shower, I'm gonna drink her blood.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just revealed what I was impeached for the second time, which was a total disgrace and a total disaster, and Sleepy Joe is a total nut job, believe me, I know a lot about nut jobs, more than anyone could ever know about nut jobs, believe me, and Sleepy Joe is the biggest nut job of them all, and everyone agrees the election was totally rigged, not only did the voting machines totally rig it, but it was China, where the China virus came from, I call it the China virus because it came from China, which is very creative, no one has ever thought about it before because I have the best ideas, but China, they made the China virus and they also totally rigged the election, and so did the aliens, the aliens they love Sleepy Joe Biden because they're a total disgrace and they made the alien virus because that's where the virus came from, those aliens, they only send their rapists and drug dealers, if only they sent their best, the aliens would have totally rigged the election my way, but the worst aliens voted for Sleepy Joe.
Wolfley: DONALD MONK, I FEAR I HAVE CAUGHT THE ALIEN VIRUS. SHOULD I INJECT MYSELF WITH AN UNTESTED VACCINE EVEN THOUGH ALIEN VIRUS HAS A 99.98-PERCENT SURVIVAL RATE UNLESS YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT PHONE BOOTHS WITH TOOTHPICKS FOR ARMS, AND THEN THE NUMBER DROPS TO 71.9 PERCENT?
Reilly: Shut up, idiots, what do I do about the pictures on my computer? I'm gonna be arrested like my defensive coordinator friend who had lots of sleepovers at my house!
Jay Cutler: No one cares about your Nick Foles pictures, dude.
Reilly: But what about the Nick Foles picture I have in my bikini! I even carry that one in my wallet!
Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you're discussing things people have in wallets, Kevin. Let's begin with Nick Foles bikini pictures, Kevin. That's pretty weird, Kevin. How about photo IDs, Kevin? Then there's cash, Kevin. Everyone has cash, Kevin, especially loser adults like you who still get an allowance from their mother, Kevin. Another thing in wallets are credit cards, Kevin. Then there's insurance cards, Kevin. Don't forget AAA cards, Kevin. Then there's pictures of loved ones, Kevin. I imagine no one has a picture of you, Kevin, because no one loves you, Kevin.
Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, MOTHER TOTALLY HAS A PICTURE OF ME, AND SO DOES NICK FOLES, I SENT A PICTURE OF ME IN A BIKINI SO HE COULD PUT IT IN HIS WALLET! We'll be back after this!
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants had a dreadful offensive showing last Thursday. The score made the game look closer than it really was because New York generated just 150 net yards of offense.
Of course, the Giants were missing their two best offensive players: Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley. It's unclear if they'll be able to return this week, but Thomas likely has a good chance. He'll be needed because the Giants have a miserable offensive line. Seattle doesn't get after the quarterback consistently, but New York's offensive line is so bad without Thomas that the Seahawks will be able to rattle Daniel Jones.
Speaking of Jones, it'll be nice for him that he'll get a reprieve from the tough schedule. He has battled the Cowboys and 49ers in two of the three games. Both defenses rank in the top four of EPA. He had more success against the Cardinals (20th), while the Seahawks are 27th. Seattle does nothing well on this side of the ball, so Jones will move the chains more consistently.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: As bad as the Giants' offense is, the defense is even worse. The "stop" unit ranks 30th in defensive EPA, as the unit is like Seattle's in that it doesn't do anything well.
The Seahawks are coming off a game in which they exploded in the second half. A big part of the reason was that the Panthers lost two top defenders, so things opened up for the Seahawks after they were a bit stagnant in the first half. The running game was especially strong, as Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet picked up big chunks of yardage. This should happen again with the Giants ranking 24th versus the run.
New York is even worse against the pass, ranking 30th in that regard. Geno Smith also had a big second half against the Panthers, and that should continue as he'll be able to locate all of his talented receivers.
RECAP: My first instinct was to back the Giants. They're 1-2, but their two losses have been to the 49ers and Cowboys. They could get Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas back from injury. Oh, and Seattle has a miserable defense. The Seahawks' defensive EPA is 27th, so the Giants should be able to move the ball easily against Seattle.
However, I then recalled how bad the Giants are defensively, ranking 30th in that regard. The Seahawks should be able to have their way with the Giants as well. Also, the EPA numbers suggest that the Seahawks should be favored by far more. The EPA line is Seattle -5!
There's too much of a conflict here for me to wager on either side. I'm going to side with the Giants for now because there's sharp money headed in that direction, but I could be talked into Seattle at the moment as well. Hopefully we'll get some data from the injury report to make this selection clearer.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven't seen an injury report yet, so I wonder if the Seahawks will be healthier this week. They haven't been penalized for their injuries yet, but that's bound to happen soon.
SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to bet the Giants if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley returned. Both are out. I'm going to be on the Seahawks, but I won't be betting this game because they have injury issues as well.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update since last night. I don't think I'll be betting this game, as both teams are fades for me.
MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I'm going to bet a half unit on the Giants because a win will take me over $500 for the week. Also, I think this line movement is unwarranted. The Seahawks are not a good team and shouldn't be favored in this spot. I would have more enthusiasm for the Giants if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley were playing, but the Giants can get by without them versus this poor Seattle defense. Speaking of which, this is the softest defense the Giants will have played so far after enduring the gauntlet of Cowboys and 49ers to start the year. I'm looking for a +3, but the best number we have right now is +2 -108 at Bookmaker.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Seahawks. The sharps are on the Giants. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a viable +3 line. The best spread I see is +2.5 -105 at Caesars.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -5.
The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
Public going against the Giants.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 62% (683,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
