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2 Comments (last 3 days)
Most Recent 5
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ATL +6 Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE. CAR -5.5 No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR. I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes. CHI -4.5 I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win. HOU +1 This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light. BUF -9.5 Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game. NYJ +2 Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do. BAL -4 Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't. |
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@Actionedge Should be good now |
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@Mr. Bitter - as you say "weekend of the backup RB". I think I found something w/ GB... Montgomery 11-25-2.3 |
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I got worked last weekend. It happens. Week 1 & 2 2024 were worse, but I havent lost that much in over a year. I looked back on why Det got killed at home in a div game vs a semi rook QB, but Goff does fold to pressure so bravo BF D. Ind vs Pit? idk - good on ya for 6 turnovers. Just do that every week and you'll win the SB. KC? Again, idk. I teased KC +4 in a big game = should've been money, but I get it... Buf 5-0 in last 5 reg season vs KC and KC 4-0 vs Buf in last playoff games. Look ahead leans... NE @ TB - I want to love TB assuming health comes their way. NE has MIA on TNF so TB is the obvious play off a bye. Non-conf helps too. PIT @ LAC - under I want to love CLE w NJ getting rid of their good players, but this has that "everyone show up" feel for NJ. I teased CLE +3.5 a bit , but I'm being cautious. Lastly, as a Rams fan I love them, but my bookie hasnt posted the line. GL all |
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View rest of comments over last 3 days
@Baird
Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.
You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.