@Karensman - I'm not good enough to take on the Vegas spreads directly so I mostly play teasers. I was lucky to hit the HOU/KC under @ 48.

I like your idea of LAR/NYJ over and your point w/ DET's injuries is definitely valid. Its just so hard to know what CHI team will show up. I teased a small amount on DET -0.5, but nothing crazy. GL this week

@Baird & Mr. Bitter : It's been a struggle for me to find a matchup I like [ power underdog ] the last few weeks and this week is no exception. My number #1 play this week sounds like your write up: I like the KC/Houston game Under 42. No need for any more explanation - you covered the reasons for the under quite well. I'm also going with the Jets-Rams game OVER 46. After watching A. Rodgers the last 2 weeks it looks like they are committed to the quick passing game to keep ARod upright and he has 2 great receivers in G. Wilson & D. Adams. Just like the Rams have 2 great receivers Kupp & Nakua. Both teams have solid RB's - B. Hall vs. K.Williams. Neither team's defense stands out. I like to play 3 teams [ 2 team RR parlays ] and on my 3rd pick I took a flyer on SF - Miami Over 45. Being a Bears fan I refuse to bet the Bears but I wouldn't be shocked if they give the Lions trouble. The Lions injuries are really adding up and I think the loss of D. Montgomery is Huge for the Lions. First game at home for the Bears after Sh-tcanning Eberflus, if they are going to put forth some effort it will come this week. Of course, they could sleepwalk through another non-effort also.  

  

 

HOU @ KC - dont like it, too many variables. I'd feel like a fool trying to cap this game.

Looks like Thuney moved to LT & Caliendo is at guard so HUNTER & ANDERSON dont destroy Mahomes. Good move KC

Edge win rate rankings -
1. Hunter
6. Anderson Jr
KC O-line strength? Interior

Question: do refs give RT Taylor extra step or call false starts? Prob the biggest deal in this game

I'm guessing we see a bunch of Pacheco, misdirection & quick passes = long drawn out drives &/or stalled drives with long field. Hollywood is back, but how much does he really play? Prob just getting ready for postseason. KC is @PIT + @DEN next so they should show up in their FINAL home game. IDK - spags, Jones+Karlaftis & McDuffie should limit HOU's O, but KC isnt exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Chenal's status is big vs Mixon.

Spread has been all over the place. I got small on UNDER.

PIT vs BAL - Steelers magic is done. PIT continues to trend down even though past stats scream otherwise in this game. I've only teased BAL 0 to -0.5 so far.

Side note - PIT's schedule reminds me of CHI (5 div games in 6 weeks) when they battled hard for a big DIV stretch, had an off game and lost big only to come back and fail. Is CHI @ MIN a precursor to this game?

@Charles Beagle 

I get that CHI drafted Odunze to ensure Caleb Williams won't be lacking for quality targets anytime soon, but my God would Chop Robinson or Dallas Turner have looked good opposite Montez Sweat. Pace may have even been able to grab either after trading down with a team desperate to move up ahead of MIN for McCarthy or Nix. Pace kinda blew that one, IMO.

The Herbert injury and LA's lack of any real HFA scare me, but this is exactly the type of game recent Chargers editions would lose and Harbaugh was hired to win.

The last time DEN played a team with a decent QB was back on Nov. 10 on the road against Mahomes and the Chiefs. DEN lost that game 16-14, and I think we may see a similarly close game tonight.

Neither team can run. Courtland Sutton should get his numbers, but he is DEN's only real weapon. Tarheeb Still has stepped up, so the Hart/Molden injuries aren't terrifying. McConkey could have a big game as he avoids boundary-anchored Surtain, and Hayden Hurst might make an impact fresh off the IR.

LAC 23 DEN 20