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This is Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog, where he'll talk about the NFL Draft, anything that has to do with football and whatever else is on his mind.
Send Matt an e-mail here: mmcguire5@gmail.com.
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Posted July 19, 2009
Predicting Future Needs
Can we predict future needs? I have heard from multiple people online that it is pointless to make a 2010 NFL Mock Draft because it is so far away in time.
Granted, predicting the players today is certainly not even close to accurate as compared to early April, but I think projecting the needs of NFL teams is more predictable than we might think.
To back up what I am saying, let's look at the 2009 NFL Draft and predict if we thought these would have been needs back in mid-2008.
1. Detroit: Quarterback (Daunte Culpepper/Dan Orlovsky) - YES
2. St. Louis: Left tackle (Orlando Pace - will be 33 with back injuries) - VERY POSSIBLE
3. Kansas City: 5-technique (Coaching change) - NO
4. Seattle: Outside linebacker (Leroy Hill - contract year) - VERY POSSIBLE
5. NY Jets: Quarterback (Brett Favre/Kellen Clemens/Brett Ratliff) - VERY POSSIBLE
6. Cincinnati: Right tackle (Stacy Andrews - contract year) - YES
7. Oakland: Wide receiver (Javon Walker/Johnnie Lee Higgins) - YES
8. Jacksonville: Left tackle (Khalif Barnes) - NO
9. Green Bay: Defensive tackle (Justin Harrell/Cullen Jenkins) - YES
10. San Francisco: Wide receiver (Josh Morgan/Isaac Bruce) - YES
11. Buffalo: Defensive end (Aaron Schobel/Chris Kelsay) - YES
12. Denver: Running back (Selvin Young/Michael Pittman) - VERY POSSIBLE
13. Washington Redskins: DE/OLB (Jason Taylor/Marcus Washington) - YES
14. New Orleans: Defensive back (Mike McKenzie/Josh Bullocks) - YES
15. Houston: Outside linebacker (Morlon Greenwood/Zach Diles) - YES
16. San Diego: Outside linebacker (Shawne Merriman/Shaun Phillilps) - NO
17. Tampa Bay: Quarterback (Jeff Garcia) - YES
18. Denver: Defensive end (Crowder/Moss/Dumervil) - YES
19. Philadelphia: Wide receiver (Curtis/Brown/Jackson) - NO
20. Detroit: Tight end (Michael Gaines) - YES
21. Cleveland: Center (Hank Fraley) - NO
22. Minnesota: Wide receiver (Rice/Berrian/Wade) - NO
23. Baltimore: Right tackle (Adam Terry) - VERY POSSIBLE
24. Atlanta: Nose tackle (Grady Jackson) - YES
25. Miami: Cornerback (Will Allen) - YES
26. Green Bay: Rush linebacker (Coaching change) - NO
27. Indianapolis: Running back (Joseph Addai) - NO
28. Buffalo: Center (Melvin Fowler) - YES
29. NY Giants: Wide Receiver (Burress/Smith/Hixon) - NO
30. Tennessee: Wide receiver (Justin Gage/Roydell Williams) - YES
31. Arizona: Running back (Edgerrin James) - YES
32. Pittsburgh: Defensive end (Brett Keisel/Aaron Smith) - NO
In conclusion, here is the breakdown: Yes (17/32 = 53%), VERY POSSIBLE (5/32 = 16%), and NO (10/32 = 31%). I understand that from year to year it will change somewhat, but we could have guessed one of each team's biggest needs 69 percent of the time a year in advance.
Scouting is getting better and better, and teams continue to fill needs with second- and mid-round picks. I think we can do a better job than we think in determining future needs based on the 2009 NFL Draft.
In the near future, I will post my preliminary top three needs for each team for the 2010 NFL Draft, then we will see how well I did a year from now.
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Matt McGuire's
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Walt's
NFL Picks
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings
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Send Matt an e-mail here: mmcguire5@gmail.com.
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: wpc112@gmail.com
Posted July 19, 2009
Predicting Future Needs
Can we predict future needs? I have heard from multiple people online that it is pointless to make a 2010 NFL Mock Draft because it is so far away in time.
Granted, predicting the players today is certainly not even close to accurate as compared to early April, but I think projecting the needs of NFL teams is more predictable than we might think.
To back up what I am saying, let's look at the 2009 NFL Draft and predict if we thought these would have been needs back in mid-2008.
1. Detroit: Quarterback (Daunte Culpepper/Dan Orlovsky) - YES
2. St. Louis: Left tackle (Orlando Pace - will be 33 with back injuries) - VERY POSSIBLE
3. Kansas City: 5-technique (Coaching change) - NO
4. Seattle: Outside linebacker (Leroy Hill - contract year) - VERY POSSIBLE
5. NY Jets: Quarterback (Brett Favre/Kellen Clemens/Brett Ratliff) - VERY POSSIBLE
6. Cincinnati: Right tackle (Stacy Andrews - contract year) - YES
7. Oakland: Wide receiver (Javon Walker/Johnnie Lee Higgins) - YES
8. Jacksonville: Left tackle (Khalif Barnes) - NO
9. Green Bay: Defensive tackle (Justin Harrell/Cullen Jenkins) - YES
10. San Francisco: Wide receiver (Josh Morgan/Isaac Bruce) - YES
11. Buffalo: Defensive end (Aaron Schobel/Chris Kelsay) - YES
12. Denver: Running back (Selvin Young/Michael Pittman) - VERY POSSIBLE
13. Washington Redskins: DE/OLB (Jason Taylor/Marcus Washington) - YES
14. New Orleans: Defensive back (Mike McKenzie/Josh Bullocks) - YES
15. Houston: Outside linebacker (Morlon Greenwood/Zach Diles) - YES
16. San Diego: Outside linebacker (Shawne Merriman/Shaun Phillilps) - NO
17. Tampa Bay: Quarterback (Jeff Garcia) - YES
18. Denver: Defensive end (Crowder/Moss/Dumervil) - YES
19. Philadelphia: Wide receiver (Curtis/Brown/Jackson) - NO
20. Detroit: Tight end (Michael Gaines) - YES
21. Cleveland: Center (Hank Fraley) - NO
22. Minnesota: Wide receiver (Rice/Berrian/Wade) - NO
23. Baltimore: Right tackle (Adam Terry) - VERY POSSIBLE
24. Atlanta: Nose tackle (Grady Jackson) - YES
25. Miami: Cornerback (Will Allen) - YES
26. Green Bay: Rush linebacker (Coaching change) - NO
27. Indianapolis: Running back (Joseph Addai) - NO
28. Buffalo: Center (Melvin Fowler) - YES
29. NY Giants: Wide Receiver (Burress/Smith/Hixon) - NO
30. Tennessee: Wide receiver (Justin Gage/Roydell Williams) - YES
31. Arizona: Running back (Edgerrin James) - YES
32. Pittsburgh: Defensive end (Brett Keisel/Aaron Smith) - NO
In conclusion, here is the breakdown: Yes (17/32 = 53%), VERY POSSIBLE (5/32 = 16%), and NO (10/32 = 31%). I understand that from year to year it will change somewhat, but we could have guessed one of each team's biggest needs 69 percent of the time a year in advance.
Scouting is getting better and better, and teams continue to fill needs with second- and mid-round picks. I think we can do a better job than we think in determining future needs based on the 2009 NFL Draft.
In the near future, I will post my preliminary top three needs for each team for the 2010 NFL Draft, then we will see how well I did a year from now.
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Matt McGuire's
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Walt's
NFL Picks
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings