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This is Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog, where he'll talk about the NFL Draft, anything that has to do with football and whatever else is on his mind.
Send Matt an e-mail here: mmcguire5@gmail.com.
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Posted Aug. 9, 2009
Vegas Power Rankings
If you haven't checked out my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, then your probably should.
Let's evaluate Vegas' power rankings (and they might be smoking crack), then look at the best buys for the 2009 season. After all, if you had laid $100 on the Cardinals last season, you would have won $2,700.
These odds were taken from BodogLife.com
Key: 5 = 5/1
1. New England: 4
2. Pittsburgh: 9
4. San Diego: 10
4. Philadelphia: 10
5. NY Giants: 11
7. Indianapolis: 12
7. Minnesota: 12
8. Dallas: 15
9. Chicago: 16
10. Tennessee: 20
13. New Orleans: 22
13. Carolina: 22
13. Baltimore: 22
14. Atlanta: 24
15. Arizona: 26
16. Green Bay: 28
17. Washington: 34
19. Houston: 35
19. Jacksonville: 35
21. Miami: 40
21. New York Jets: 40
22. Seattle: 45
24. Tampa Bay: 50
24. Buffalo: 50
26. San Francisco: 55
26. Denver: 55
28. Kansas City: 65
28. Cincinnati: 65
29. Cleveland: 80
30. Oakland: 90
32. Saint Louis: 100
32. Detroit: 100
Let's break this down. I have absolutely no clue how Minnesota and Dallas are so high on this list. Minnesota will be relying on either Sage Rosenfails or Tarvaris Jackson to get them to the Super Bowl. This isn't happening. And Wade Phillips leads his team to a Super Bowl? I have eaten marshmallows that were tougher than Wade Phillips.
McGuire's Best Buy No. 1 has to be the Washington Redskins at 34:1 odds. They added Albert Haynesworth, Brian Orakpo and Jeremy Jarmon to a defense that ranked sixth last season in defensive yards per play and fourth in scoring defense. If they don't have the best defense in the NFL, then it's second-best.
Their defense is too good to be that low on Bodog's power rankings. Therefore, we should buy low.
McGuire's Best Buy No. 2 is the Houston Texans at 35:1 odds. If their defensive line can come around with Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams, they'll have a chance to shock some people in January. If Matt Schaub stays healthy, then this is a great bet. They have the explosive offense to catch some teams off guard and the potential on defense to win in the playoffs.
McGuire's Best Buy No. 3 is the Chicago Bears at 16:1 odds. They added the best young quarterback in the NFL to their offense (and by "young" I mean from the 2005 to 2008 NFL Drafts) along with Orlando Pace. The defense was highly underrated last season. You will hear ESPN and NFL Network analysts say how they were 21st in total defense and 16th in scoring defense.
Unfortunately for you, these six-figure analysts don't do any real research. Based on my Advanced Statistics study, the Chicago Bears were fifth in the NFL in defensive yards per play and 10th in defensive turnover rate. With an offense that can move the football down the field and keep the defense off the field, the defensive line rotation will be more fresh and aggressive this season.
You might be thinking why my choice to win the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints, are not one of my picks at 22:1 odds. Sean Payton is a terrible game manager and he is known for making really stupid play-calling decisions, putting his team in tough spots. I love the Saints, but they don't have the coach to win them a Super Bowl.
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Matt McGuire's
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Walt's
NFL Picks
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings
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Send Matt an e-mail here: mmcguire5@gmail.com.
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: wpc112@gmail.com
Posted Aug. 9, 2009
Vegas Power Rankings
If you haven't checked out my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, then your probably should.
Let's evaluate Vegas' power rankings (and they might be smoking crack), then look at the best buys for the 2009 season. After all, if you had laid $100 on the Cardinals last season, you would have won $2,700.
These odds were taken from BodogLife.com
Key: 5 = 5/1
1. New England: 4
2. Pittsburgh: 9
4. San Diego: 10
4. Philadelphia: 10
5. NY Giants: 11
7. Indianapolis: 12
7. Minnesota: 12
8. Dallas: 15
9. Chicago: 16
10. Tennessee: 20
13. New Orleans: 22
13. Carolina: 22
13. Baltimore: 22
14. Atlanta: 24
15. Arizona: 26
16. Green Bay: 28
17. Washington: 34
19. Houston: 35
19. Jacksonville: 35
21. Miami: 40
21. New York Jets: 40
22. Seattle: 45
24. Tampa Bay: 50
24. Buffalo: 50
26. San Francisco: 55
26. Denver: 55
28. Kansas City: 65
28. Cincinnati: 65
29. Cleveland: 80
30. Oakland: 90
32. Saint Louis: 100
32. Detroit: 100
Let's break this down. I have absolutely no clue how Minnesota and Dallas are so high on this list. Minnesota will be relying on either Sage Rosenfails or Tarvaris Jackson to get them to the Super Bowl. This isn't happening. And Wade Phillips leads his team to a Super Bowl? I have eaten marshmallows that were tougher than Wade Phillips.
McGuire's Best Buy No. 1 has to be the Washington Redskins at 34:1 odds. They added Albert Haynesworth, Brian Orakpo and Jeremy Jarmon to a defense that ranked sixth last season in defensive yards per play and fourth in scoring defense. If they don't have the best defense in the NFL, then it's second-best.
Their defense is too good to be that low on Bodog's power rankings. Therefore, we should buy low.
McGuire's Best Buy No. 2 is the Houston Texans at 35:1 odds. If their defensive line can come around with Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams, they'll have a chance to shock some people in January. If Matt Schaub stays healthy, then this is a great bet. They have the explosive offense to catch some teams off guard and the potential on defense to win in the playoffs.
McGuire's Best Buy No. 3 is the Chicago Bears at 16:1 odds. They added the best young quarterback in the NFL to their offense (and by "young" I mean from the 2005 to 2008 NFL Drafts) along with Orlando Pace. The defense was highly underrated last season. You will hear ESPN and NFL Network analysts say how they were 21st in total defense and 16th in scoring defense.
Unfortunately for you, these six-figure analysts don't do any real research. Based on my Advanced Statistics study, the Chicago Bears were fifth in the NFL in defensive yards per play and 10th in defensive turnover rate. With an offense that can move the football down the field and keep the defense off the field, the defensive line rotation will be more fresh and aggressive this season.
You might be thinking why my choice to win the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints, are not one of my picks at 22:1 odds. Sean Payton is a terrible game manager and he is known for making really stupid play-calling decisions, putting his team in tough spots. I love the Saints, but they don't have the coach to win them a Super Bowl.
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Matt McGuire's
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Walt's
NFL Picks
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings