NFL Draft: How Often Do Offensive Tackles Bust?

We believe that offensive tackles are the safest position to draft because that's what the media tells us. The media also tells us that quarterbacks are risky picks, yet as proven in a previous article, defensive tackles bust more than quarterbacks.

So, which is it? Are offensive tackles less risky than other positions, or do they, like defensive tackles, bust frequently under the radar? With the debate going on about Ndamukong Suh or Russell Okung being the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, I felt it was important to look at the hit and bust rates of the offensive tackle position so we can compare it to how the defensive tackles fared.

Below is a chart of all of the offensive tackles selected in the top 16* of each NFL Draft from 1993** to 2009.

* Why top 16? I wanted to cover the top half of the first round, and anything below that gets distorted because it becomes unclear what a bust/hit is.

** Why 1993? I didn't want to go back too far because scouting has really changed. In case you are wondering, there were two key hit offensive tackles chosen in 1992, so this data isn't skewed at all.

Offensive Tackle	Draft No.	Year	Hit, OK or Bust	Comment
Jake Long	1	2008	Hit
Orlando Pace	1	1997	Hit
Jason Smith	2	2009	TBA	Didn't play much last year because of concussion problems.
Robert Gallery	2	2004	Bust	Thriving as a guard, but a bust as a left tackle.
Leonard Davis	2	2001	OK
Tony Boselli	2	1995	Hit
Joe Thomas	3	2007	Hit
Chris Samuels	3	2000	Hit
D'Brickashaw Ferguson	4	2006	Hit
Mike Williams	4	2002	Bust	One of the fattest human beings alive right now.
Jonathan Ogden	4	1996	Hit
Levi Brown	5	2007	Bust	Still early, but he looks lost in pass protection.
Andre Smith	6	2009	TBA	Mr. Man Boobs will probably be a bust, but that's still to be determined.
Walter Jones	6	1997	Hit
Bryant McKinnie	7	2002	Hit
Kyle Turley	7	1998	OK
Eugene Monroe	8	2009	TBA
Jordan Gross	8	2003	Hit
Willie Roaf	8	1993	Hit
Levi Jones	10	2002	Hit
Willie Anderson	10	1996	Hit
William Tra Thomas	11	1998	Hit
Ryan Clady	12	2008	TBA	Looked like a hit after his rookie season, but Josh McDaniels could ruin his career.
Jammal Brown	13	2005	Hit
Brad Hopkins	13	1993	Hit	A 12-year starter and 2-time Pro Bowler for the Titans.
Chris Williams	14	2008	OK	Looked pretty solid toward the end of last season.
Kenyatta Walker	14	2001	Bust
John Tait	14	1999	Hit
Bernard Williams	14	1994	Bust	Out of the league in four years.
Wayne Gandy	15	1994	Hit	Started in the NFL for more than a decade.
Shawn Andrews	16	2004	OK	Hard to call him a bust because he played so well for a few years. Injuries and depression ruined his career.

Using the data from the quarterback and defensive tackle bust article, let's make another nifty chart comparing the amount of hits, busts, OKs and TBAs for each position:

Position	No. of Prospects	Hits	Busts	OKs	TBAs
Quarterbacks	29	13	12	2	2
Defensive Tackles	33	15	15	2	1
Offensive Tackles	31	18	5	3	5

You're reading that right. Since 1993, there have only been five busts at the offensive tackle position in the top 16 picks of the NFL Draft.

Now, let's look at the hit and bust rates for each position (remember, these numbers exclude TBAs because they are neither hits nor busts yet):

Quarterback Hit Rate: 48.2%
Defensive Tackle Hit Rate: 46.9%
Offensive Tackle Hit Rate: 69.2%

Quarterback Bust Rate: 44.4%
Defensive Tackle Bust Rate: 46.9%
Offensive Tackle Bust Rate: 19.2%

Pretty insane, huh? Offensive tackles chosen in the top 16 hit 69.2 percent of the time and bust on just a 19.2-percent clip.

There will always be busts at every position in the NFL Draft. There is no such thing as a guarantee when you're giving 21- and 22-year-olds millions of dollars. But offensive tackles are as close to a guarantee as you're going to get.

Go here to see how this relates to the Lions drafting Ndamukong Suh or Russell Okung.