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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
3 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

End of the season so might as well go big. Its always scary betting against Mahomes (especially in BIG games), but I like the match up edge the Ravens have. I dont think Thuney is huge blow because his backup is decent and KCs issue has been on the edges, but his departure along with Toney & Gay (he was supposed to spy Lamar) as well as Pacheco not being 100% helps Bal.

I bet on Fri @ -205 ML and -3.5 spread
20.5u to win 10u ML
2.4u to win 2u spread
Bal wins 26-18

I'm not confident in the Det/SF game as I can see Det keeping it close, winning or getting blown out. My gut says Det doesnt score more than 24. I mixed up teasers with Det +13 & SF -1 and put a little on Lions spread.

Det +7 (2u)
SF wins 30-24

Lastly, I mixed game props...
Purdy>1.5 pass TDs, McCaffrey<18.5 carries & Bal 1st to 20 points @ +365
.8 to win 2.92

GL to all - lets go Ravens!

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
3 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

End of the season so might as well go big. Its always scary betting against Mahomes (especially in BIG games), but I like the match up edge the Ravens have. I dont think Thuney is huge blow because his backup is decent and KCs issue has been on the edges, but his departure along with Toney & Gay (he was supposed to spy Lamar) as well as Pacheco not being 100% helps Bal.

I bet on Fri @ -205 ML and -3.5 spread
20.5u to win 10u ML
2.4u to win 2u spread
Bal wins 26-18

I'm not confident in the Det/SF game as I can see Det keeping it close, winning or getting blown out. My gut says Det doesnt score more than 24. I mixed up teasers with Det +13 & SF -1 and put a little on Lions spread.

Det +7 (2u)
SF wins 30-24

Lastly, I mixed game props...
Purdy>1.5 pass TDs, McCaffrey<18.5 carries & Bal 1st to 20 points @ +365
.8 to win 2.92

GL to all - lets go Ravens!

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Mr. Bitter • 265 Posts (494 ) •
3 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Baird 

Good stuff. I'm with you on both games, only I think DET might win SU. On paper SF is the right side, but something feels off...like they're kinda in cruise control, while DET is playing with fire in their belly. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I'm scarred by the images of Dontayvion Wicks handling Chase Young as if he was an All-Pro tackle. Just a gut call: DET 31 SF 28

BAL will take care of business. It's their year. I think you're underrating the loss of Thuney. Not because he's absolutely irreplaceable, but because KC's only hope for a championship run was establishing their new downhill running/defense identity on the fly, meaning their O-line absolutely could not afford to be weakened beyond what it already was. Combine that with BAL having a potential Kelce-eraser in Kyle Hamilton, and KC should find it difficult to put up points.

Underrated angle: I love the Mahomes commercials. He could seriously have a post-football future as a comedian. However, that media saturation along with the Kelce/Swift stuff...I dunno, it just feels like KC is fattened up for the kill. Again, maybe I'm overthinking it, but have you seen Lamar Jackson's interviews lately? Dude is focused at a frightening, eye of the tiger level.

BAL 31 KC 20

GL and enjoy your Sunday 

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
3 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

CHI @ GB - It looks like Johnson will be out and Gordon is questionable which hurts CHI's D. Sweat has been a great addition but hes up against a tough RT in Tom whos only allowed 2 sacks in 1,000+ snaps. Add in that Love may finally get all 3 receivers on the field, they're at home and Dillon is out so the better back (Jones) should get more touches/receptions.

I've been riding the Bears train for weeks now and while I really appreciate the $$$$ theyve brought, this is my stop I'm off.

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
4 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@Mr. Football   It'll be interesting to see this weeks Dal/Mia matchup. Dallas struggles on the road and Mia cant beat a team with a winning record. Somethings gotta give
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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
4 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - Nice call
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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
5 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

CIN vs BAL – The Hubbard/Higgins vs Stanley/Humphrey injuries favor Baltimore. The Ravens have a good backup in Mekari and boast one of the league’s top offensive lines – they’ll be fine without Stanley (especially with Hendrickson banged up and Hubbard out). Same with Humphrey as Ya-Sin has been just as good AND is matching up with Irwin instead of Higgins.

Both teams lost on late field goals last week, but luckily for Bal they’re not playing one of the leagues best Ds and unluckily for Cin they’re not enjoying the confines of home vs an average opponent. Give me the home team on a short week. While I don’t think this will be a blowout like Bal vs Det or Sea, I do think Bal establishes the lead and never gives it up.

On a side note, Keaton Mitchell has been very Devon Achane-esque in that he can go to the house anytime he touches the ball. Its no surprise that both runners have a PFF grade of 93-94 (albeit a small sample size). None the less, Harbaugh has said Mitchell will be more involved this week which should be a huge boost to the Ravens as the rookie comes to the game with fresh legs.

Mitchell > 38.5 RY (1U)
Mitchel +15 ½ RY vs Mixon total (.5U)
Bal -190 ML (2U)
*Fully transparency, I started (2) teasers cards with Cin +9 ½ and (2) others with Bal +2 ½. I’m hoping the 4 cards stay live with a 28-20 type final.

GL


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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
5 month(s) 29 day(s) ago

TEN vs PIT - The Titans have been great at home, going 3-0 and scoring 27, 27 & 28. Conversely, they're 0-4 on the road scoring 15, 3, 16 & 16. This makes me lean Pit’s way, but Ten has been good vs the run and Pit doesnt have a run game so Pit will have to rely on their receivers & D to win the game.

The Titans should be able to establish Henry and limit the burden on Levis, but there is a chance Heyward plays which will help a bit. With that said, Ten’s O-line took a hit w Hubbard in concussion protocol. If he cant go, that puts Petit-Frere against Watt (huge mismatch). The other side of the line isn’t much better either as Highsmith has a great matchup against Dillard (46.4 pass grade). If the ground game stalls, Levis will be in for a long night.

I’m not confident w either side but lean with the home team as Pit has a much better turnover differential, are penalized less & have home advantage on TNF.

With that said, I do like…
Highsmith > 0.25 sacks
Robinson > 1.5 rec (good matchup in slot & SM-B should limit his side of the field forcing Pickett to look elsewhere)

I may also go Watt > 0.75 sacks (if Hubbard is out) and possibly Levis < 201.5 passing

GL</span>


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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
5 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide

TEN vs PIT - The Titans have been great at home, going 3-0 and scoring 27, 27 & 28. Conversely, they're 0-4 on the road scoring 15, 3, 16 & 16. This makes me lean Pit’s way, but Ten has been good vs the run and Pit doesnt have a run game so Pit will have to rely on their receivers & D to win the game.

The Titans should be able to establish Henry and limit the burden on Levis, but there is a chance Heyward plays which will help a bit. With that said, Ten’s O-line took a hit w Hubbard in concussion protocol. If he cant go, that puts Petit-Frere against Watt (huge mismatch). The other side of the line isn’t much better either as Highsmith has a great matchup against Dillard (46.4 pass grade). If the ground game stalls, Levis will be in for a long night.

I’m not confident w either side but lean with the home team as Pit has a much better turnover differential, are penalized less & have home advantage on TNF.

With that said, I do like…
Highsmith > 0.25 sacks
Robinson > 1.5 rec (good matchup in slot & SM-B should limit his side of the field forcing Pickett to look elsewhere)

I may also go Watt > 0.75 sacks (if Hubbard is out) and possibly Levis < 201.5 passing

GL</span>


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Mr. Bitter • 265 Posts (494 ) •
5 month(s) 23 day(s) ago

@Baird 

Nice call. Rock solid handicapping.

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

You reference Pits win vs Bal but I think that was a facade. The Ravens played 3 ROAD games vs div opps in 4 weeks and had to fly to UK following the following week. A bit of a letdown, but the kicker was Moses out so Watt caused issues on the right side of the line. Many other BAL players were out too so not as impressive of a win as it seemed.

Cam Robinson should limit Highsmith and if Little can play, the left side will be shored up. The mismatch Ridley & Kirk have over Wallace/Sullivan is ridiculous. Also, Jags run game vs Pit run D > Harris vs Jags run D (I cant believe Warren isnt getting 80%+ of the touches). Lets even throw in extra rest for Jax.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

GL

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter 

Yes, it looks like all practiced today except Jones who is the least impactful of the bunch IMO. I'm hoping the line doesnt move too much (ML is up to -145 now).

I appreciate the confirmation on Jax - GL

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 7 day(s) ago

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

You reference Pits win vs Bal but I think that was a facade. The Ravens played 3 ROAD games vs div opps in 4 weeks and had to fly to UK following the following week. A bit of a letdown, but the kicker was Moses out so Watt caused issues on the right side of the line. Many other BAL players were out too so not as impressive of a win as it seemed.

Cam Robinson should limit Highsmith and if Little can play, the left side will be shored up. The mismatch Ridley & Kirk have over Wallace/Sullivan is ridiculous. Also, Jags run game vs Pit run D > Harris vs Jags run D (I cant believe Warren isnt getting 80%+ of the touches). Lets even throw in extra rest for Jax.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

GL

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

You reference Pits win vs Bal but I think that was a facade. The Ravens played 3 ROAD games vs div opps in 4 weeks and had to fly to UK following the following week. A bit of a letdown, but the kicker was Moses out so Watt caused issues on the right side of the line. Many other BAL players were out too so not as impressive of a win as it seemed.

Cam Robinson should limit Highsmith and if Little can play, the left side will be shored up. The mismatch Ridley & Kirk have over Wallace/Sullivan is ridiculous. Also, Jags run game vs Pit run D > Harris vs Jags run D (I cant believe Warren isnt getting 80%+ of the touches). Lets even throw in extra rest for Jax.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

GL

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Mr. Bitter • 265 Posts (494 ) •
6 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Baird 

I think rain would likely favor the Jaguars. JAX has the superior rushing attack, assuming PIT doesn't suddenly give Warren the vast bulk of carries (which they just refuse to do against all logic).

Then there's the whole Kenny Pickett/small hands thing...

The Jaguars are likely to have Tyson Campbell, Walker Little, Zay Jones and stud run-clogger DaVon Hamilton back in the lineup. JAX is absolutely the right side in this one.

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

You reference Pits win vs Bal but I think that was a facade. The Ravens played 3 ROAD games vs div opps in 4 weeks and had to fly to UK following the following week. A bit of a letdown, but the kicker was Moses out so Watt caused issues on the right side of the line. Many other BAL players were out too so not as impressive of a win as it seemed.

Cam Robinson should limit Highsmith and if Little can play, the left side will be shored up. The mismatch Ridley & Kirk have over Wallace/Sullivan is ridiculous. Also, Jags run game vs Pit run D > Harris vs Jags run D (I cant believe Warren isnt getting 80%+ of the touches). Lets even throw in extra rest for Jax.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

GL

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 7 day(s) ago

I forgot the biggest mismatch...
Josh Allen (89.8 PFF) vs Dan Moore (27 pass block grade)

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Baird • 9 Posts (2 ) •
6 month(s) 19 day(s) ago

A friendly nudge Walt -

ATL isnt lighting up the scoreboard and although they play well at home, they grind the clock & dont win by much (unless your the crappy Panthers w rookie QB making his 1st start). WAS just got blown out and had extra time to rest/prep. I agree with you that ATL should win but I expect WAS to be focused and keep it close.

Why not go through the key numbers and start a teaser w WAS +8.5

Ditto with SEA +9 - GL

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