Welcome to Baird's Profile Page

Baird

Recent Comments Publishings (0) Following (0) Followers (0)

Baird's Recent Comments

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
4 day(s) 22 hour(s) ago

@JRO60 - I tried to do a few simple searches looking back 10 years but some obvious issues emerge with algorithms...

bye week in between 3 road games - count?
international "home" game which is really a road game - count?

I guess I could grab all the games over 10 years, narrow columns to simple home vs away and highlight 3 away in a row. Take those and make a pivot table for W/L result on 3rd game. Maybe tomorrow, too hazy tonight.

AI and computers are inherently stupid and require exact specifics which makes it difficult to analyze. Maybe Walt or someone here knows a better way?

FWIW... The last NFL team to win three consecutive road games was the Detroit Lions in the 2024 season

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 4 day(s) 22 hour(s) ago
Prop builder... Mason Taylor 31+ KC win only NE win only Chig 21+ Judkins 77+ Jacory 49+ Addison 3+ rec Bijan 58+ Allgeier 12+ .8 to win 6.2U Add Kelce 3+ rec .4 to win 3.8U 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
6 day(s) 21 hour(s) ago

LAR W Puka 12-5
w/o Puka 2-4

Look ahead...
My main look ahead is CAR. They surprised ATL in the home opener, beat the amazing Dolphins and ran over Dallas' tough run D. Ok, I'm being a smartass but they have the junky Jets coming up and if they win their 1st road game then all the talking heads are going to be praising them @ 4-3... And then the schedule gets real. I'm all for playing the win total under if they beat NYJ.

CAR < win total IF they beat NYJ and things get inflated (even if slightly inflated)

Side note... I just heard Rattler get questioned and explain why he was benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. Maybe he brings a little extra this week because of that? But CHI just played on the road in the rain so they'll be ready at home in the rain; NOleans wont. IDK

PHI vs MIN = no thanks

Finally, I cant wait to watch WAS@DAL (hopefully everyone plays). TB@DET is enticing (Campbell said Alim McNeil "is friggin playin"! Thats awesome! Cant wait! Um, but who on the backend is playing? Also, what TB players are going to suit up? Too many question marks at this time.)

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
6 day(s) 21 hour(s) ago

Walt - it sounds like your backing off of prop bets or at least saying "if it wasn't for them...". I think there are some layup props this week so stick w it, but why not add teasers? You used to do 2-gamers and hit - why quit? This week seems tough spread-wise, but teasers look good...

KC -12 to -6 I agree this could easily be a 10-11 pt win and possible backdoor cover, but KC is hitting their stride, feeling confident and playing at home in a div game. They stop the run well which gives LVR limited scoring options. KC will get a big lead and let off. Rice back should be good practice and less than a TD seems $. Aside from Maxx, whats scary from LVR? Answer = not Jeanty or Geno

IND +1.5 to +7.5 Over a TD with the great playing Colts in a conference game = YES. I root for the SD Chargers, but c'mon LA isn't blowing out a stacked Ind team.

Other options...
Cle +3.5 I really like your simple breakdown of 4 pieces and CLE's D is by far the best. I think Judkins and Fannin have good games as well as the obv CLE D. As log as Gabriel doesn't blow it, I dont see MIA playing well in the elements vs that D.

ATL +8 SF getting offensive pieces back AND playing at home is scary. ATL came off bye to play a prime time home game and showed up = OBV LETDOWN (plus dome to road). But, Warner out is the final domino on SF's D. ATL should be able to control TOP and keep it close w MVP Bijan & that O-line vs Huff only.

NYG@DEN tease - pick a side. I like DEN to win, but either side is appealing... NYG +13 OR DEN -1
Just remember, NYG switched to Dart (huge get up) & beat LAC on a letdown in NJ. They went on the road in a natural letdown & lost to the winless Saints - lost to the winless Saints. They came back to NJ and beat div rival/SB champ PHI on a short week. See the trend? This is a natural travel away from home letdown spot for NYG with PHI up next. Nix has been junk but if the D can limit the run then Dart will have too much on his shoulders (Bonito leads league in sacks). Wandale has been great, but McMillan is #3 in slot and we arent even bringing up Surtain. I like ~~Tim Patrick~~ Troy Franklin to have a weird stat line... 3-120-2.

Side note - why isnt Lil Jordan on any NYG depth chart? He's the biggest threat.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 18 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago - hide
@Bitter - I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it Thats the kind of thing I need to hear cause I dont watch college. Flores > Gabriel should be an easy decision, but Wentz doesnt instill confidence vs Cle's D. I got 0.5U on a 6-game w/ Min+2.5 just cause Walt sees something - GL 0 0

	Billl2021 • 11 Posts (3 ) • 15 day(s) 8 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Clevelands coaches cost them that game. Way to conservative when they had the lead 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 18 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago
@Bitter - I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it Thats the kind of thing I need to hear cause I dont watch college. Flores > Gabriel should be an easy decision, but Wentz doesnt instill confidence vs Cle's D. I got 0.5U on a 6-game w/ Min+2.5 just cause Walt sees something - GL 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 18 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - "why are you out on HOU/BAL?" Henry has owned the Texans so there's that angle, but Lamar, Roquan, Awuzie, Madubiuke & Humphrey out w banged up Stanley, Oweh is too hard to cap. Yes, this is do or die for Bal, they are at home and have owned Hou in the past, but I cant calculate all the variables. 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 18 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago - hide
@Mr. Bitter - "why are you out on HOU/BAL?" Henry has owned the Texans so there's that angle, but Lamar, Roquan, Awuzie, Madubiuke & Humphrey out w banged up Stanley, Oweh is too hard to cap. Yes, this is do or die for Bal, they are at home and have owned Hou in the past, but I cant calculate all the variables. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
18 day(s) 10 hour(s) ago

@Baird

If the Ravens were playing a team with a functional passing game, I wouldn't touch them given all the injuries in the secondary. But HOU hasn't been able to throw the ball for a while.

I still believe the Ravens are an elite team that will round into form as they get healthier, so I wanna get out ahead of it. BAL could really get into a lather Weeks 8 through 14 (lotta cupcakes) and I'm gonna bet a small wager that tomorrow's game will be an early springboard into that. Kinda my contrarian pick of the week.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 18 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago - hide
@Bitter - I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it Thats the kind of thing I need to hear cause I dont watch college. Flores > Gabriel should be an easy decision, but Wentz doesnt instill confidence vs Cle's D. I got 0.5U on a 6-game w/ Min+2.5 just cause Walt sees something - GL 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
18 day(s) 10 hour(s) ago

@Baird

MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen.

One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 18 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter That game was hard to watch. The 1st quarter QB sneak while Rams d-line talks about what they are doing after the game & quick passing TD to Tonges wide open in red zone. Fumble, drop, fumble, missed extra point, missed FG - jeez I hate to lose money, but gladly stand by my 5.75U + 5.75U Rams bets. They should have covered -2.5 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
20 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago - hide

I did well last week on PHI ML, NE & Den teasers plus the obvious Sea, Ind +9.5, Jags 9.5, Hou -1 & Chi/LVR over. I lost w Bal failing to show up (12.75 ML loss) and the GB tie (I had -0.5). I lost 4U on GB, but they closed teasers & opportunity cost was 27U- ouch! It happens.

I hit the look ahead line last week for a small 1U...
2-game 1U = LAR +3 & Ind 0 (wish I went bigger)

I still like that bet w updated line and will go bigger tomorrow AM.

I plan on teasing...
LAR -1 + Ind -1: 5.75 to win 4.6U
*OMG, Ind just dropped 1/2 point - what am I missing? Stokes hurt, Jeanty trucked a JV squad = wont happen this week. Ind coming off loss + @home & no look ahead. Can LVR win this game or is Vegas giving back after destroying the public? I DONT GET IT - should be 8.5+
LAR -1 + Buf -2: was going to hit same 5.75 but I like NE +14 now so will mix both
*NE +14, will have to check Buf KR & PR D. NE has been killing it on returns.
Ind -1 + Buf -2: 5.75 to win 4.6U, but may go lower &/or add NE a little

Looking to add Det -4 in a 6-game and maybe pair w all 3 above in 2-game teasers for 1.25U each

I want to like...
TB +9.5
NO +4.5 (fade NYG in dome w letdown)
**If you have doubts, just know winless NO is favored over the team that beat LAC - C'mon man
NYJ +8.5 - NM, I do like NYJ. This is Dal letdown + a Hall/Fields rumblin, bumblin, stumblin game
Was +9

I dislike...
Den @ Phi
Ten @ Ari
Hou @ Bal

RB props should be good this week... Hall, Montgomery & Achane overs

Trying to find the right KC/Jags play and will mix that a bit. GL all!

P.S. @ Bitter... TB @ Sea is supposed to be uniform game of the century :) GL brotha

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
20 day(s) 8 hour(s) ago

@Baird

Out of curiosity, why are you out on HOU/BAL? I've been sniffing around BAL as the media is currently driving nails into their coffin. I have a hunch that - even with the horrifying injury list - Harbaugh will rally the remaining troops, lean on Derrick Henry (HOU susceptible vs. the run) and find a way to cover/maybe win. My biggest concern with BAL is the season-ending injury to Madubuike, but if the rest of the team gets healthy and DeCosta swings a trade for a high-quality DT (Jeffery Simmons?), I still like BAL in the AFC North.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
20 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
20 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago

Walt, 2 things...
1. CLE vs MIN - I'd be careful assuming the body clock is the reason Min wins. I appreciate you dialing it back with a 2-game sample, but I specifically remember the Buf/Jags game because I made money both weeks. Buf played a huge home game vs div rival Mia and crushed them. That was when Mia was good and Buf put 100% into showing up at home. Conversely, they took some hits and I recall a big loss with DaQuan Jones being out, a starting LB getting ko'd and CB issues. I bet Jacksonville as a fade of the Buf letdown & injuries - not body clock. I DONT think the body clock applies this week; however, Flores vs rookie QB looks like money AND I checked out the stadium to see if its grass or turf... "underlying synthetic turf field for NFL games" - how is this not a Min home game? Def favors them unless the refs are biased towards Cle. I dont watch college so I have no clue what Gabriel brings, but Bucky Brooks said... "quick release, can beat you w arm or legs but doesnt have a strong arm". Ok, dink and dunk small ball and let D do the heavy lifting. Either way - I'll join in NOT watching, but will add a small tease for whatever you're seeing. With that said, I'm scared of Judkins, 007 WR & 2 TE sets. Besides, Cam Robinson is shoring up LT and Wentz just lost to the mediocre Steelers.
2. "On the plus side, they’re accumulating some major air mile points so maybe they’ll get a free vacation" - thanks for the laugh. Very well written.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
20 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
20 day(s) 8 hour(s) ago

@Baird

I appreciate the fine tooth comb treatment for CLE/MIN. Non-bet for me, as I don't trust Wentz, yet wonder how long the CLE defense will be happy with doing the heavy lifting while the offense stagnates around a revolving door of bad QBs. (As a pretty dedicated draftnik, I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it.) We've seen even the best of defenses eventually tap out in such situations.

I wouldn't count on the Cam Robinson angle. Washed journeyman who should only be shoring up practice squads.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
20 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago - hide

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 20 day(s) 10 hour(s) ago
@Baird Doug Williams vs. Jim Zorn! 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
26 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago

CAR had their game, bet against.
*I want to love NE, but they have div rival BUF next. I still think they show up at home and CAR brings less. Dont get me wrong 5.5 spread is scary for a slouch offense, but I tease so...

This is that sneaky game we're looking for.

Ok, in Vrabel I trust. Gonzalez should be back vs McMillan. When I first saw the line I was confused, now I understand. NE also brings the #2 run D w 2.8 YPC.

Wk1 - Jeanty 19-38-2.0
Wk2 - Achane 11-30-2.7
Wk3 - Warren 18-47-2.6

I just found my play this week aside from Den. GL all

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Week 1 was great with 15U Den ML, 4U win on Vegas teasers, 11 on teasers w local guy and 0.5 McLaurin under. 30.5U win is much better than my 20U loss to start last season. NYG +12.5 & KC +3 failed to cover.

FWIW - I love AC for DROY but the odds are so baked (+160) that I have to wait to make sure he doesnt get hurt. They cant drop much further, but yes he will win.

Week 3 look ahead - WAS 1st true TNF/short week vs tough GB team = they expectedly looked weak. Before TNF I loved WAS look ahead to bounce back week 3 vs LVR who will be putting full effort into home opener vs LAC on MNF. Extra time for WAS + LVR short week + natural letdown + travel cross country = I loved WAS. BUT, the injuries to Ekeler, Brown and Wise jr are BIG. IF Jaden and Terry can finally get on the same page & if the rookie RB can step up & if LVR suffers some kind of bad luck on MNF then I'm back to loving WAS in week 3. I'm hitting Deebo props either way.

I'll try to post my plays after the fight tomorrow & limit the rambling. My main bet hinges on CAR LT and AZ RG. C'mon Hernandez! Leaning Connor over props either way

*Feeling Tyreek Hill squeeky wheel props + Nico Collins props (Dean size mismatch + said he took pay cut cause he loves TB which tells me he lost a step + HOU home opener). I hope Kirk can suit up to take pressure away.

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
@Baird Love those clean angles in your LV/WAS look ahead. I worry about WAS, too. Daniels is the real deal, but WAS is due some serious luck regression this year. (Which we may already be seeing with the injuries.) Also: While I get the idea of surrounding Daniels with a veteran cast during his rookie contract window, WAS's roster feels too old. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

@Baird

Yeah, Carter's DROY chances look promising. The Dart era could begin as soon as this Sunday for the Giants, which may increase the likelihood that Thibodeaux gets traded, meaning even more snaps/opportunity for Carter.

I still think Malaki Starks is in a great position to rack up some big plays and narrow the lead, and I've got my eye on CIN LB Demetrius Knight Jr., who was flying around everywhere and super-productive Week One. Could be a Shaquille Leonard-type situation where Knight just puts up so many numbers that he forces the voters' hands.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Limmer 27 pass (ouch!), but 89 run block grade As an Anaheim Rams fan, I'm obligated to to rebut w Verse (90) vs Moore Jr (26 pass block). 2, 3 or 4 sacks for Verse? 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
@j_oliver_23 You make good points and I agree with you. Any games you like this week? 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

First off... Congrats Walt on preseason - you killed it. I wish I joined outside of BAL, but I see an evenness going into this season so I'm gun shy. Nonetheless, BRAVO on a great start. You dissected all 1s, 2s & 3s perfectly – keep it up.

I've been tempering my expectations and have backed off a few bets + going smaller on DK the 1st week.

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

I think the talking heads have been hanging too hard to SF’s schedule. Don’t get me wrong…. I love the schedule & them to make the playoffs; I love Salah back; I love the best O coordinator/HC in the game; I love… that’s it. I wanted to hate Darnold and call him a 1 hit wonder until I saw Kubiaks scheme. I have to trust what I saw in preseason from that offense. Yes, I know, PRESEASON. But! I cant help but think about SF losing a few pieces… Hargrave on the front, Greenlaw in the middle, Hufunga back & Ward on the side. Also, to hear SEA is going to incorporate Milroe into the fold + homefield + everyone thinks SEA sucks = I went BIG teasing SEA +8.5
*Full disclosure: Cross is a stud + high-ranking rookie next to him, but rest of O-line sucks. However, SF is starting 3 rookies on defense (see loses above).

*I forgot to mention Deebo is gone, Aiyuk is out and McCaffrey was weak in his 4 games last Dec. If I was a D coordinator like Macdonald, I would shadow Riq’s size w Jennings and let the rest play out. SEA wins 1^st half

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

PHI -1.5 (small pivot/hedge when it went to 8.5 w/ DAL +14.5)
Small PHI/Dal > 41.5
Mix KC/LAC
PIT +3 (thanks Walt for write-up)
IND +7.5 (old) – on a side note, does Mc lose locker room, Hill leave or Tua get floored first? I don’t see MIA lasting
Jax +3 (although I love Hubbard in DK)
LVR/NE (more on <50 + small tease both ways)
NYG/WAS mix *I have a lot to say on this game, but already rambling so… Terry <rec yds (miss long bomb for PI? error in our favor)
CIN/CLE mix (heavier on CLE +11.5 w/ Walt)
ARI 0
DEN -1.5 to -2.5 Obv
*SEA +8.5* may go ML, we’ll see

Hit MIN + BAL 2-3 weeks ago @ +1.5
BAL +7.5 HUGE
MIN +7.5 – might hedge w/ CHI +7.5 now

GL

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
1 month(s) 16 day(s) ago

@Baird

Last thing: With the SF WR corps battered and disorganized, my biggest fear is that the Niners will just kill SEA with a steady diet of George Kittle.

I'm interested to see if the Seahawks employ Nick Emmanwori (my darkhorse to join Malaki Starks, Abdul Carter and draft crush Jahdae Barron in the DROY race) as something resembling a Kittle/McBride-eraser. Emmanwori's skill set is perfect for the job.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 1 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
@Baird And now Christian McCaffrey is QUESTIONABLE with a new calf injury. Predictable. The thing about athletes like McCaffrey (incredibly tightly wound as opposed to good, natural musculature) is that by the time they're 28, every muscle wants to detach. McCaffrey will never be the same and is approaching the cliff. As is Trent Williams. 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 1 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
@Baird Jordan Elliott. Kalia Davis. Dee Winters. Upton Stout. Ji'Ayir Brown. Jason Pinnock. These are current STARTERS on the SF defensive depth chart. Also: If the game is close, the 49ers are at a disadvantage with their historically bad ST units. Ultra-inconsistent Jake Moody is somehow still the kicker, with washed Thomas Morstead at punter. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 1 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
@Baird RT Abraham Lucas isn't bad...he's just always injured. I'm assuming he's healthy for this game since SEA just gave him a 3-year/$46M contract extension on Thursday. If a healthy Lucas with some chip help from A.J. Barner (good blocking TE) keeps Bosa under control, who else on that SF D-line is ready to step up? 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter "..set you chumps straight" - love it! Bosa is my biggest concern. Not cause he's amazing, but the right-side of SEA is so bad. Full disclosure - I dont think Darnold sees ghosts (yet) 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

Notes:

SEA will win SU.

Agree on MIA. House of cards ready to collapse.

Wouldn't touch CLE even at +11.5. I think Walt is misreading this one. The Bengals have heard it all about their traditional slow starts and their piss-poor defense. It's why the starters were out there in preseason. I'm confident Burrow and company come storming out of the gates and Al Golden's new scheme rewrites the crappy CIN defense narrative for at least one week. Bengals in a blowout.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide

I love the write ups (especially PIT since the odds say otherwise) and although I’m tempering, I still have a BIG bet on DEN as well as a few disagreements. Hopefully Bitter can set us straight ??

I love DEN and have to say you forgot to put out the new coach/new QB dynamic in TEN. That wasn’t the thesis for my horrible odds ML bet, but I’ll piggyback on it. Teaser is calling Walt.

DEN ml - 63U to win 15U (Durango & M Resort last wkend)

ARI was my next big ML bet, but ironically I got gun shy after watching Saints starting D vs DEN. Full disclosure, the Saints house was rocking so I’m worried about week 1. They thrashed DEN the 2 series with starters (sans 3^rd w/ a Sutton TD). I want to like Murray in a contract year, Harrison gaining weight, Callais in his final year, on and on and on. I love Taysom sidelined, I love NO weak CB group, I love the iffy QB, but Staley and the starting D has me scared so I backed off $$$$ on ML and decided to go $$$ on teasers.
Lastly, my only real discrepancy is with SF vs SEA. I love SEA.

<;p>----------------------------------------------------------------

Aside from my DEN ml bet, I have big teaser mixes of 2 & 6 games…

GL

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

@Baird

Waiting for official injury reports, weather, etc, then will set you chumps straight.

Until then, I couldn't agree with you more on SF/SEA.

The Niners are being valued as if they're the same team from two years ago. They're not.

Cheap Purdy and expensive Purdy are two different beasts, both from individual pressure and team-building standpoints.

The WR corps and O-line are problematic.

Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be washed.

Other than Bosa and Warner, the defense is nothing but question marks and unproven youngsters. (Right now, SEA has the better defense. As do LAR and ARI.)

There's profit in fading SF until folks catch up.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 8 month(s) 24 day(s) ago
I'm sticking w PHI and have a few +7.5 teasers. Something tells me Barkley doesn't run over KC (KC D only 1 R>40 yds all season). Trying to figure out how the dome plays into this. Im not a fan of Hurts passing game, but have faith in ex-Dal OC. Fangio too. KC #26 vs TE (Goedert over) PHI tied #2 vs TE (Kelce under) 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

Aside from the Det/Goff crumble, the past 6 weeks have been amazing $wise (low 4-figures 5 out of 6 weeks). I wish I could say its all profit, but I got worked in weeks 2 & 3 as well as -12U on ATL not making the playoffs+wins. Hindsight, I should've put more on LAR > 6.5 midseason when I posted. I love this hobby, continue to learn and look forward to 2025.

I'm w/ Walt on PHI this week. Easily the best D, O-line & RB left out of the 4. Isnt that what wins championships? They're the fav to win the SB but what good are stats this deep in the season? For the record, I put a small hedge on WAS to win it all at 7-1 to offset my PHI teasers. However, I feel like its PHI all the way since Vegas has them above KC.

PHIs at home for the 5th straight game w/ this being Commanders 4th roady in a row. Quinn, Wagner, Armstrong, Luvu & Chinn have held the D together. BUT injuries (WAS RT vs Carter- Daniels love to roll right) + Mailata (Armstrong gets stuffed) + Igbinoghene vs Smith & Barkley = this is PHIs game to lose. Hurts is a small concern, but as long as he doesnt blow it I dont see PHI losing.

7.8U PHI teased to 0 (mixed w Ohio St W, Buf +8 & a few others)

BUF @ KC
Just saw a stat I need to verify... Josh Allen 4-1 vs KC reg, 0-3 playoffs.
Does Clete hear the public's concern and overcompensate against KC? Does Douglas continue to struggle & Hopkins smoke him? Does Von jump every time Jawaan steps back early to force a flag? Does Pacheco get more than 6 carries? I'm looking forward to watching this one.
I heard this is Kelce's last home game so he's going to get peppered. IDK

Mahomes has a 6-5 starting record in games that were officiated by Blakeman. That’s his second-worst win percentage (.545) among 20 referees
The Bills have an 11-7 record (.611) in their 18 games with Blakeman as the referee. Notice it does say Allen like the Mahomes stat.

GL

DoctorJ • 14 Posts (10

) •
9 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Baird I read the ESPN article today concerning the officiating. Clete Blakeman has been the referee for 12 Chiefs games since Mahomes was drafted in 2017. KC is 6 - 6 in those games. Blakeman's regular-season crew led the NFL with 18.1 flags per game, but it's worth noting that Blakeman himself only threw 3 flags for RTP, tied for 2nd fewest in the NFL. It appears Blakeman isn't Mahomes' friend.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

	DoctorJ • 14 Posts (10 ) • 9 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@Baird Great observation about J. Daniels loves to roll right. The Eagles D must make an effort to keep him to the left side of the field when he rolls out. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
9 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Baird

Good stuff. Agree with you on PHI - they're built to win in the playoffs. The Nakobe Dean injury doesn't even worry me too much, as Oren Burks is a solid, playoff-tested backup that only needs to hold down the fort on run downs. The versatility of Baun and DeJean also fills in a lot of blanks in the middle of the field.

The Sam Cosmi injury is a killer. It takes the WAS O-line from "iffy" to "weakness" at the worst possible time.

Honestly, the only way I see WAS winning is if Hurts lays an egg and Daniels has an even higher level in him...a transformative level that allows him to just drag a mediocre cast to a championship.

As for BUF/KC, the Bills definitely have the superior run game/O-line. (Pacheco came back too early for KC. He's not right at all.) KC will have to pass to beat BUF. While Kelce and Worthy should have no problems getting loose in the middle of the field, I wonder if KC's O-line will hold up against BUF pass-pressure that's running hot.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - appreciate the Stiff Little Fingers recommendation. Never heard of them, but always looking for something new. I've tried to trace punk back to origins (Beattles "Helter Skelter" from '68 seems like one of the oldest since its not their usual pop sound), but anything 70's/early 80's peaks my interest.

Check out "Death... for the whole world to see" if you havent. Some brothas in Detroit back in 1971 when Motown was big decided to play garage rock. Very simple stuff, but unique for the time.

Cheers

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 7 day(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

I was going to post about PIT/BAL earlier in the week but didnt want to seem like I was piling on. I did well on that game so I dont mind what side anyone took, but I feel like Walt was trying to see something that wasnt there.

The short of it is... PIT played exactly like they did the previous 4 games (bad) and BAL did the same (great). The writing was on the wall & everyone in the comments seemed to see it. To me he missed both sides - PIT was worse & BAL better than his opinion of both teams.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 12 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter "Jenna Jameson Effect... more comfortable on top than behind. PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team". - comedy genius right there. Thanks for the laugh 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

CLE/BAL - I teased medium on BAL -12.5, but backed off when it shot to 20. I'm liking the idea of Zappe starting and think he, backup TE & backup RBs will give 100%. CLE's WR crew and D? Not so sure. BAL wins easy but I think we see them back off in the 4th and rest all big names. I love BAL -12.5 teasers, but I'm liking the idea of a backdoor and will add small CLE +26 hoping they can score in mid-teens and BAL stops in the 30s.
*Looking for props on CLE WR Michael Woods II. I'm guessing he & Zappe practice together all the time.

CIN/PIT - I could write for/against both sides, but after the DEN game last week I'm liking PIT more at home to try for #5 vs HOU. Long story short, I hit different teasers on everything except the under. I mostly teased PIT 7.5-9 (plus RB props), added CIN +4-4.5 and small on the OVER. I would have went bigger on the over, but temp & kicking FG in PIT is worrisome.

I'm going through Sunday's games and will post more. GL in the final week!

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 21 day(s) ago - hide

I'm going through Sunday's games and will post more. GL in the final week!

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 9 month(s) 20 day(s) ago
@Baird I gave up a while ago on plays of any kind with Harris/Warren. PIT's insistence on feeding Harris so he can not break tackles and plod his way to 3 YPC is baffling. Also, PIT needs to find a chump team to take Pickens off their hands this offseason. Ultra-talented, but the dude is a poisonous moron. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
9 month(s) 21 day(s) ago - hide

I'm going through Sunday's games and will post more. GL in the final week!

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
"plus RB props"... I failed to mention I went bigger on Warren than Harris. Warren 21+ rush (heavy tag, but happily paid) & +31, then splurged for 61+ at over 2-to-1. I hit Harris and rec props but wanted to point out Warren. GL 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Jumping on NYJ +7.5 teaser hoping TT starts at QB. Either way - cold home game + div = pride 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 9 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
@Baird They're insisting Rodgers will start. The dude has this organization held hostage. I have to think the leash will be short though. O-line injuries could be key here. Looks like MIA could be without Armstead and Lamm (IR today). However, DNPs for Moses and AV-T is just as concerning for the Jets. If they can't go, Chop Robinson could one-man wreck the right side of the NYJ O-line. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
Jumping on NYJ +7.5 teaser hoping TT starts at QB. Either way - cold home game + div = pride 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter... "I pride myself on autistically thorough" Put that to work in week 18. Meaningless games w/ gems to be had. Some bad public angles OR big favs resting. Find us some diamonds in the rough. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Jumping on NYJ +7.5 teaser hoping TT starts at QB. Either way - cold home game + div = pride 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@Baird - Ramsey vs Adams (5 games). Looks like 6-83-1.7 Player G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% 1D FantPt Adams 5 47 30 416 13.9 3 8.9 17 59.60 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - sadly, I finished a small 25/150 w/ SF +9.5 simply because. Game means nothing to road team and (hopefully) a lot to home team. Jennings, Kittle & Deebo have really good matchups. Shanna pride? *For the record, I have DET +3.5 next week 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - I have to * the Goedert #s w Brown out, but the others are legitimate. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

After starting 5-1 thanks to a soft schedule, HOU proceeded to go 4-5. Their struggle is easy to see, having been plagued by injuries and better competition. They sit at 9-6 and are pretty much locked into their playoff spot.

HOU beat: IND (twice), CHI, BUF, JAX (twice), NE, DAL & MIA
HOU lost: MIN, GB, NYJ, DET, TEN & KC

Its easy to see where BAL fits.

HOU's depleted WR group & Mixon's tough matchup = not many scoring opportunities. BAL will get up for this game with a chance to take back their division (especially if KC beats PIT). Ryans is an amazing D coach, but the Al-Shaair suspension is HUGE in this one and Ward/Pitre out on the backend doesnt help. Lastly, Kyle Hamilton moving back to a truer safety spot instead of his usual Polamalu type position should help vs Nico Collins.

Teasing BAL +0.5

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - just read this and you make a ton of convincing points. I'm backing off my U count, but still stubbornly putting a smaller amount on Saints. GL 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - appreciate the confirmation 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 9 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
Started a long one (ML/prop parlay)... SEA Charbonnet (SEA) 51+ Rush LAC LAR TB Rachaad White (TB) 20+ Rush *sub for Bucky 61+ on another card BUF IND Courtland Sutton (DEN) 54+ Rec 0.5 to win 7.9 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - very well said on circumstantial-side of Saints D vs TEs & thanks for diving into the TE #s. Looks less appealing w the thought of Bowers killing it and Abdullah giving them a viable running game. I cant get past the feeling that Rizzi will have this team playing 100% vs LVR maybe 75%? New Orleans will be rocking and I think both O&D lines for the Saints will be the difference... plus getting a TD on teasers after that egg vs GB feels right.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Baird

DEN +9 looks comfy. Agree with all of your angles, and I'm just getting the sense that the ride ends here for CIN. No team with a defense that putrid gets a Hollywood ending - they're more likely to get a season-ending, mundane home L that encapsulates everything that was wrong from the beginning.

Also: Courtland Sutton is in a serious smash spot vs. a CIN defense that hemorrhages vs. WR1s. Nix-to-Sutton alone could keep DEN within a score.

(Side note: Hubbard, Rankins, Wilson injury availability could change things, but I'll be surprised if any one of them plays - especially Hubbard.)

To answer your rhetorical question: The Saints bet is very scary. You've definitely got marbles.

Rattler is comically bad. I can kinda see a scenario where the Saints uglify the game with some clock-killing Kendre Miller action, but Miller's complete no-show vs. GB is concerning, as are the injuries to Lucas Patrick and Erik McCoy. I get that the Saints were outclassed from the jump @GB and game script was never in Miller's favor, but he just didn't look good at all.

I'm hearing Olave may play. I'd be shocked. So many concussions in a relatively short time...you almost have to shut him down, right?

NO vs. LV is crap vs. crap - so anything is possible - but my gut says it may just be a "team with the best player wins" type-game and Bowers goes nuclear.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

Other current bets + leans...
small mix on KC/PIT
LAC 0-+2 (I teased this early in the week thinking it would rise. Why's it dropping? I killed it w NE +20 last week, but that was situational. They are not good. LAC should win by TD+ vs NE's O-line & WR crew. Dobbins may come off IR. Small note: NE hosts BUF next)
DEN +9
*CIN has been on a tear lately; they hit a road block this week. The celebration is over. I understand they lost a tough DIV game vs PIT a few weeks back, but hey, they beat DAL, TEN & DT-R since.
**Remember when Burrow was taking all those hits? Look at Den D vs Cin O line matchup. Surtain vs Chase. Higgins Q, but even if he plays Moss should be back w help from Jones (#4 ranked safety). I'm monitoring Rankins & Hubard injuries (Wilson IR). DEN +9 is too much.
LAR -0.5 (Both OTs out for AZ vs LAR D-line = YES. Also, this is basically win-and-in for the Rams. They should/can rest the SEA game next week. Also, maybe small revenge for that week 2 debacle? Lastly, Puka should kill it.. 9-110-1)
TEN +7 (maybe Jax 1st half & TEN 2nd side bet - note: look into TEN vs TE now that EJ went to SEA)
TB -2 (must win)
IND -2 (Lock is starting; hopefully Tracy is hurt)
SAINTS +7 (How scary is this bet? I might lock this in before it drops. How much pride will NO have at home? How hard will LVR tank for draft position?)

Secondary...
BUF -3.5 (move to primary if injuries look good)
PHI -3.5
Cleveland weather? I want to like MIA -0.5, but prob no
WAS +2 (yes, ATL D showed up but Penix was less than impressive. WAS letdown game though after PHI? I have to look at what WAS is playing for cause I know ATL is do-or-die from here on out)

Tertiary...
DET +3 (odd feeling about this one. Like TB@DAL MNF)

Merry Christmas, good luck if you're w/ me (bad luck if not) and have a kick ass New Year!

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@Baird Side note: Olave back? Vs #116 out of 118 CB Richardson 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@Nagurski - is that true? I understand vs PIT w/o Pickens, but what other teams? I gotta look into this "worst-to-1st" pass D claim. If so - thanks for the info. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@DoctorJ - besides the recent sackfest NO's D has experienced, they are #8 vs TEs (Werner, Davis, Gay). Maybe they have pride in their last home game vs a team tanking for draft picks? I made 8U w GB MNF so I get it, but cmon, its not like LVR looked strong at home vs Jacksonville. Saints weak O-line vs LVR's stout D-line is worrisome </s> 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide

HOU @ KC - dont like it, too many variables. I'd feel like a fool trying to cap this game.

Looks like Thuney moved to LT & Caliendo is at guard so HUNTER & ANDERSON dont destroy Mahomes. Good move KC

Edge win rate rankings -
1. Hunter
6. Anderson Jr
KC O-line strength? Interior

Question: do refs give RT Taylor extra step or call false starts? Prob the biggest deal in this game

I'm guessing we see a bunch of Pacheco, misdirection & quick passes = long drawn out drives &/or stalled drives with long field. Hollywood is back, but how much does he really play? Prob just getting ready for postseason. KC is @PIT + @DEN next so they should show up in their FINAL home game. IDK - spags, Jones+Karlaftis & McDuffie should limit HOU's O, but KC isnt exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Chenal's status is big vs Mixon.

Spread has been all over the place. I got small on UNDER.

PIT vs BAL - Steelers magic is done. PIT continues to trend down even though past stats scream otherwise in this game. I've only teased BAL 0 to -0.5 so far.

Side note - PIT's schedule reminds me of CHI (5 div games in 6 weeks) when they battled hard for a big DIV stretch, had an off game and lost big only to come back and fail. Is CHI @ MIN a precursor to this game?

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 10 month(s) 2 day(s) ago
And that's why I usually don't bet crap vs. crap. Penalties, fumbles, drops...JAX is a talented team that Pederson and his staff haven't developed whatsoever. Dinged a clean two-week run for me. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 4 day(s) ago

@Baird

Also decided to go light on JAX+2.5. I usually avoid crap vs. crap, but LV is really crappy. Gotta take the points.

Save for the total meltdown @DET a few weeks ago, JAX has been keeping games close since mid-October. The O-line is healthy, Etienne/Bigsby are showing signs of life, Brenton Strange has actually been an upgrade from Evan Engram, and there's still good, young talent peppered along that JAX defensive depth chart. The Raiders are as poorly coached as JAX, and with Maxx Crosby out for the year, they have absolutely nothing on defense.

I think Brian Thomas Jr. gets loose vs. that awful LV secondary. Tyson Campbell should be able to contain a banged-up Jacobi Meyers, so my only concern is Bowers going off for 150 yards/2 TDs or something and burning me. Possible, but I'm gonna risk it. GL and enjoy

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - I agree on the ATL QB change and think we finally see them look good instead of mediocre. I teased earlier and the week at pick'em and continue to add at the current -3.5. ATL wins 30-17 Good points on Montgomery + Gibbs future outlook. GL today 2 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 4 day(s) ago

@Karensman

I'm with you on DET/Montgomery. I don't think Walt is giving Montgomery enough credit for what he brings to the Lions. Yeah, the Lions can beat you in many different ways and Montgomery is just a RB, but Sonic and Knuckles running behind that O-line is DET's foundational character. Knuckles is a heart-and-soul guy, and while the Lions are incredibly resilient, I don't think it's safe to assume Craig Reynolds just steps in and seamlessly replaces him.

I also think the "that's just more touches for Jahmyr Gibbs" logic is faulty. Gibbs is obviously more talented/explosive than Montgomery, but he's also a 5-9/195ish RB that punches above his weight with his aggressive running style. He's most effective in bursts, which the Lions obviously know because they prioritized signing Montgomery to replace Jamaal Williams as a high-level tag-team partner for Gibbs.

Gibbs may go bonkers today against a CHI front seven that's weak vs. RBs, but I fear increased usage will eventually lead to inefficiency and maybe even Gibb's name being added to DET's scrolling injury list.

CHI +6.5 is the only dog I'm interested in today, and that's only if Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins play. I know the CHI offense has been discombobulated recently, but I just can't ignore that Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. DET CBs mismatch as a backdoor recipe.

Otherwise, I'm just laying the points with ATL and GB this week. I'm all in on the Falcons QB change, and I don't see how NO/GB is anything else but a primetime blowout. GL

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago
@Karensman - I'm not good enough to take on the Vegas spreads directly so I mostly play teasers. I was lucky to hit the HOU/KC under @ 48. I like your idea of LAR/NYJ over and your point w/ DET's injuries is definitely valid. Its just so hard to know what CHI team will show up. I teased a small amount on DET -0.5, but nothing crazy. GL this week 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide

Karensman • 31 Posts (11

) •
10 month(s) 5 day(s) ago

@Baird & Mr. Bitter : It's been a struggle for me to find a matchup I like [ power underdog ] the last few weeks and this week is no exception. My number #1 play this week sounds like your write up: I like the KC/Houston game Under 42. No need for any more explanation - you covered the reasons for the under quite well. I'm also going with the Jets-Rams game OVER 46. After watching A. Rodgers the last 2 weeks it looks like they are committed to the quick passing game to keep ARod upright and he has 2 great receivers in G. Wilson & D. Adams. Just like the Rams have 2 great receivers Kupp & Nakua. Both teams have solid RB's - B. Hall vs. K.Williams. Neither team's defense stands out. I like to play 3 teams [ 2 team RR parlays ] and on my 3rd pick I took a flyer on SF - Miami Over 45. Being a Bears fan I refuse to bet the Bears but I wouldn't be shocked if they give the Lions trouble. The Lions injuries are really adding up and I think the loss of D. Montgomery is Huge for the Lions. First game at home for the Bears after Sh-tcanning Eberflus, if they are going to put forth some effort it will come this week. Of course, they could sleepwalk through another non-effort also.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Your take on WAS/NO may be right. Saints O-line is healthy and could grind out a close game. Kool-aid may shadow McLaurin & Ekeler is out so it could easily be a grinder game. As long as WAS wins I'm good. I also like... KC/CLE under Phi +0.5 Pacheco > props Added more to Justice Hill > 12.5 rush 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago - hide
Ok, last one for now... Justice Hill (BAL) Over 12.5 Rushing Yards 200.00 / 168.00 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 10 month(s) 12 day(s) ago
@Baird This seems like a gift. Could easily be the type of game script where Henry and Hill feast for 3 quarters and even Keaton Mitchell gets in there in the 4th quarter and gets 15 yards and a TD. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
Ok, last one for now... Justice Hill (BAL) Over 12.5 Rushing Yards 200.00 / 168.00 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 12 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - great info right there! Crazy FG game was odd. Now I'm hoping LAR can win the div & make a playoff run. The last second FG killed my middle, but most of my $ was on Rams so all good.

I want to love TEN this week but Pollards D-D-L is sketchy. Brown, Rankins & the LB crew are out (CIN is starting an undrafted LB so Chig & Pollard could do well). I'm backing off a little awaiting Pollard news.

My biggest tease is WAS -1 and next is BAL -8.5. I cant imagine the Saints kill me like they did vs CLE, but any given Sunday. GL

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago - hide
Funny trend of the week... Mac Jones is 5-0 vs NYJ 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
@Baird That is so embarrassing. Might be 6-0. Then again, the Jets need their annual late-season/meaningless win that ensures they drop out of range for a decent QB in the draft. 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
Funny trend of the week... Mac Jones is 5-0 vs NYJ 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

AZ @ CAR (WK16)- Walt, I hope you're right on ARI>NE. Would love to see AZ get a big dome win. Dont care about DAL @ CAR (small tease on CAR), but would love to go big next week w/ AZ outdoors, season lost, on the East coast vs a stout O-line. Love CAR next week.

TEN - Walt's write-up is spot on; love TEN +11 this week. Made $$$ teasing Dal last week and will keep it going. This is assuming Sweat, Awuzie & Boyd (revenge) are a "GO". So mad NFL flexed off CLE vs CIN TNF - would have been perfect.

Titan's D-line vs CIN O-line is scary. Also, Latham vs Hendrickson is a wash (not like Guyton). Gibbens still out tho = big deal.

LB Wilson out, Bachie Doubtful = Pollard finally getting a TD?

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
Im a fan of LAR so I teased bigger on 8-8.5 & small SF +3.5 only. Hate the game after LAR win vs BUF + Durant out + Hufunga healthy & possibly Bosa back. As an Anaheim Rams fan I have a skewed view. GL 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - Hey, they beat CHI by 3, HOU by 3 and GB by 3 (I'm not counting that fluke TD). They did destroy the Colts, Jags & Titans so... watch out BUF. I went small on BUF +7.5 & 8 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

AZ vs MIN - the Chargers & Vikings are tied for least rushing TDs allowed in the league at 5. This is the 1st home game for Min in 4 weeks. Walt - I appreciate you digging into Murray's blitz #s. AZ has SEA next = SEA, min, SEA. I'm playing the ML... MIN -9U to win 5U

It sucks that Pace Jr. is out cause MIN is #9 vs TE (McBride). At least Cashman is healthy. I would be worried that AZ is #1 in penalties, but MIN is #3.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I suck at betting AZ & NO

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 20 day(s) ago

@Karensman

I don't think you're mistaken. Walt's assessment of CIN/DAL is pretty spot-on. The Bengals just aren't a good team.

That opening CIN -6 line is nuts to me. The only explanations I can think of are:

DAL has been complete dogsh*t at home vs. any team with a pulse this season, or...

...Vegas anticipates a "pride" performance from CIN (which I might buy if CIN hadn't been so flat when it actually mattered and Zac Taylor wasn't such an ineffective HC), or...

...Vegas thinks bettors might ignore all the factors that make DAL the right side and boil it all down to "Burrow is so much better than Rush".

Pissed-off Burrow going nuclear while Rush lays an egg is definitely on the table, but Burrow has been going nuclear all season and the Bengals still lose. Like Walt said - CIN has almost nothing positive going on beyond Burrow/Chase/Higgins, while a lot of positive stuff is going on for DAL right now relative to their record. DAL will probably have Diggs and Bland back at CB...Orlando Brown Jr. is DOUBTFUL just as Parsons is getting into a lather...Lamb staying positive and gutting it out...Brandin Cooks coming back...Jake Ferguson coming back just as Logan Wilson goes on IR...DeMarvion Overshown emerging as a stud...hell, even Mazi Smith has been grading out well lately. I gotta think DAL stays within a FG.

I'm kinda liking SF to cover vs. your Bears. Even with all the injuries, one of those aforementioned pride games is something I could see from SF in this one, especially off two humbling road losses. Just can't see a Shanahan team quitting. The Bears are also pretty banged-up themselves.

If the Niners can run on anybody right now, it's CHI, and if SF can control any team's run game right now, it's CHI. (De'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are trending OUT.) I'm thinking a back-to-basics, 23-17ish win for SF behind a strong performance from Isaac Guerendo.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

LVR vs TB - I keep finding myself putting O'Connell, Meyers & Bowers in DK lineups. The price is right on QB at $4,800. Brock is the most expensive TE, but for good reason (TB#27 D vs TE) and Meyers is under-priced at $5,700.

MY POINT? If I keep adding them to lineups shouldn't I expect this game to be close? I mean, LVR put up...
17 vs KC
19 vs DEN
17 vs MIA

Those are good Ds. Plus, TB seems like they're in letdown mode - OT win vs div rival, Baker beat-up & prob not going to give full attention to crappy non-conference, 2-10 team. Once again, I didn't learn my lesson and went too big early in the week on TB -0.5; now I like LVR +12.5

Full disclosure: ESPN Bet guy went into detail on why LVR is the front-runner to have the worst record and get #1 draft pick. Maybe he's right and they already gave up.
MY NOTE: there are 3 teams vying for #1 pick - NYG, LVR & JAX. Jags go to Vegas wk16 so 1 of those teams get a win. NYG seem like #1 winner.
*I cant name a single college player so 1, 2 or 3 draft pick is lost on me.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 21 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

@Baird

LV absolutely can't run the ball. They shouldn't even waste their time trying vs. TB. I imagine Irving/White/Tucker will find success from jump, so O'Connell should be flinging it early and often. The TB pass D is susceptible.

The Bucs are awful defending the slot. If Tykee Smith is OUT again, Meyers could practically be running against air. Bowers will do his usual Bowers things, so there's real shootout potential in this one - assuming LV puts forth a little effort. I don't see why they wouldn't - it's not as if they're coming down from anything. They were never in contention to begin with. Pierce and his staff are awful, but the players like them, so I can't imagine LV just full-on rolling over.

I'm sniffing around an O'Connell/Meyers/Bowers stack for DFS tournaments, maybe with an Otton runback. (Two-TE uniqueness/Mike Evans hurt, QUESTIONABLE).

I'm with you on the Giants emerging with the #1 pick. Miserable vibes in that locker room. Drew Lock is now operating behind 3rd-string OTs...that's going to get really ugly. Schoen and Daboll feel like dead men walking.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - ATL was def the right side. Cousins single handedly blew that game. How bad is he slumping? Watch him try so hard in MIN (2 picks? 350 yds? IDK). The letdown from LAC was real - they gave up 5 sacks to the weakest pass rush. Luckily I teased +7 so I'm happy, but was hoping for a win cause the div race is getting too close. Now I have to find the right game to close out this teaser...

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Karensman • 31 Posts (11

) •
10 month(s) 23 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : Interesting analysis on the Cardinals. To me they look like a team that is a year away [ as does the Chargers ] . M. Harrison Jr. is talented but plays like a rookie and there seems to be a serious problem with quality depth. I noticed from watching the game, especially late in the 4th quarter, that K. Murray seemed reluctant to use his legs to move the chains ? I don't know what to make of that.

As a long time Bear fan I hate to bet them but I think that the Bears are the play this week. No Eberflus around to screw up, and the 49ers are decimated with injuries. Frankly they might not win another game this year as it has to be apparent to their veterans that the team is not going anywhere this year. Lately the Bears have been playing everyone close and the 3 1/2 points should be a nice cushion for a team that should be highly motivated to win.

I make my own line before the actual lines come out and I made the Bengals - 1 over the Cowboys. I was thinking this might be the time to finally back the Bengals but the line has them favored by - 6 ! If I decide to bet that game I would definitely take the Cowboys. The Bengals defense is atrocious, I can't see them holding a lead late in a close game. I know the Cowboys stink, but they have been getting some of their injured players back and they seemed to have a little bit of momentum. I am seldom that far off on a line, and I'm really confused about the 6 point spread. Am I mistaken ?

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - the drop off from Dobbins to Edwards cant be ignored and the Harbaugh bowl on MNF naturally leads to a letdown from LA. Playing at home, off a bye screams ATL. I hope you're right because I have a big ticket for ATL to win their div. GL 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - thanks for the input. I decided to avoid the ML as the 9U for 5U risk/reward isnt worth it. I still like MIN and decided to go the teaser route instead, mixing 2-game teasers w/ DEN, LAR, SEA & BUF. GL 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@Baird

"I suck at betting AZ & NO "

Same here. But I think I may have finally figured the Cardinals out. (As for the Saints - they had their little, new rah-rah coach, pre-bye fun. I think the Rams beat them in workmanlike fashion.)

ARI GM Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon were great hires. They're establishing culture the right way and the arrow is pointing up for the organization. So when they face teams that are poorly coached (those pre-bye Ws vs. MIA, CHI and NYJ perfect examples), they TCB - especially if the opponent struggles vs. the run. Otherwise, the Cardinals can be had. They just don't have a very talented depth chart (especially on defense) and it catches up to them when they face teams with a good coaching staff. You take away Conner, and the offense becomes little more than McBride-or-bust, as none of the WRS have been able to create separation or YAC this season. Petzing's scheme has grown predictable and has shackled Murray. (One game above 21 rushing yards since Week 5.) The interior O-line is a glaring weakness and was fully exposed by SEA.

The Vikings are extremely well-coached and nails vs. the run. ARI doesn't match up well at all. As for the Flores blitz vs. Murray angle, I'm calling for variance. I would bet MIN if not for the Pace injury and my distrust of Sam Darnold.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

CHI vs DET - Det is amazing, they win. The End.
CHI got worked by NE a few weeks ago, but I should have noticed the 3-game division stretch they had ahead of them. So far CHI lost...

20-19 vs GB (should have won)
30-27 vs MIN (lucky to go to OT)

CHI fought hard during this stretch - can it continue? Hard to say because of road game on a short week.

DET is missing Decker and CDIII. They have 3 great linemen which helps, but Goff's blindside is a liability. The BIG problem is DET's CB group. The drop off from Davis to Dorsey is huge. Not to mention the others are very weak. Thankfully they have #1 & #3 safeties, but CHI's MO lately has been "get the ball out quick". Its hard to trust Willams and da Bears offense, but they are the right side with this inflated line in a div game. I wish this wasnt a short week &/or it was @ Soldier field because this would be a great opportunity.

TLDR - teasing 15.5-16 is way more inviting than DET @ -3.5 to -4

Side note: love SF @ home vs CHI next week (assuming the injuries let up)

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@Baird

Niners are just decimated, while the Bills are getting Milano back and are near full health (Kincaid). The only pro-SF angles I can muster up are Shanahan's sparkling post-Halloween record, it's must-win time for the Niners (while BUF has the AFC East in the bag), Jaylon Moore has been somewhat decent in relief of Trent Williams at LT, and SF gets a boost with Purdy likely back. (Although Walt's "bet against the obviously injured QB" angle is rock solid.) Niners are always a threat with McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Jennings (although I'm beginning to wonder if McCaffrey's wheels are shot), but BUF just has such a pronounced advantage in the trenches in this one. On top of all that...lake-effect snow. This just might be a lost season for the Niners. Any given Sunday - but it takes a good amount of mental gymnastics to not think BUF is a clean play, especially teased to SU.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - yes, I'm 100% going off injuries for SF vs CHI. I read about the week 4 fracture + no Greenlaw = LB crew seems to be a lost cause.

I'm hoping SF gets worked on the East coast - no LT, LG, RDT, RDE, Lenior (maybe Rock Ya-Sin fills in) but that seems to be a common theme of mine that fails. I love teasing BUF to 0

BUF is coming off a bye, but has @LAR & @ DET next (no conf worries). Maybe they come strong seeing KC eek out a win today. Is it too easy going BIG on BUF0?

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@Karensman Ohio resident here. Seems like the Burrow/wrist quotes are being overblown a bit. He basically just said that - in the past - cold weather has had an affect on his injuries, which is just kinda "duh". He said he "could have been better" throwing in practice, but "I/we could have been better" is his weekly default answer for everything, so I wouldn't read too much into that. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

Karensman • 31 Posts (11

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird: As a long time Bear fan I doubt that this week will be the Bears Super Bowl but I honestly don't know what to expect. Last year they gave the Lions fits, losing at Detroit due to Eberflus ineptitude [ blew the win late ] but beat the Lions handily at Soldier Field and roughed up Goff who is not the same outdoors in bad weather. I think their 'Super Bowl' will be in a couple of weeks when they play the Lions at home. I do like the Over tomorrow. Has anyone heard about Burrow complaining about his wrist ? According to what I read he is complaining about pain in cold weather and has not been throwing the ball well in practice ? If he is hurting and ready to shut it down, that team has a lot of quit in it.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

@Baird

How dare you pooh-pooh the great Dan Skipper!

I want so badly to throw some cabbage at CHI. Offense is ramping up a bit since the Waldron firing and return of some O-line starters...Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. those DET CBs...could be CHI's Super Bowl...it all screams back door. Then I remember Campbell vs. Eberflus. And like you said, CHI may be running on fumes.

The injuries don't seem to be letting up for SF. New reports say Fred Warner has a fractured ankle (would explain those uncharacteristic missed tackles lately), and Trent Williams was just seen in the SF locker room using a knee scooter. Reportedly, he "can barely walk" and is probably dealing with an Achilles injury. Not good. Both are likely trending more toward trips to the IR than returns to health.

Niners are just getting eaten alive by the injury bug. Beginning to wonder if there's something to that Super Bowl Loser Curse stuff.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@DoctorJ - I take it back. Burns vs Guyton, Lawrence vs Hoffman (Martin out) and NYG strength Phillips vs Lamb. I cant guess the state of the locker room in NY though. Drew Lock sucks but he can scramble. Throwing a little on the UNDER - GL 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 10 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@DoctorJ Amazing news - I was hoping Lock would go. He looked so bad in preseason, there was a reason he's #3 on depth chart. 1 or 2 int? Parsons 2 or 3 sacks vs Hubbard? 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago
@Bitter "Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up" Its only a matter of time before he implodes. I felt good about him VS Saints and even thought he was the deciding factor based on taking care of the ball, but joke was on me when he went 395-2-0. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide
@Bitter "Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up" Its only a matter of time before he implodes. I felt good about him VS Saints and even thought he was the deciding factor based on taking care of the ball, but joke was on me when he went 395-2-0. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago

@Baird

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that this is going to be a "bad Jameis" game. All the signs are there: Crappy weather...Chubb and Conklin shells of their former selves...no viable LT vs. a PIT defense that has been letting T.J. Watt pick his spots against both edges...Minkah Fitzpatrick waaay overdue for a pick-six...a potential feast for Harris/Warren vs. a JO-Kless CLE defense that has forgotten how to tackle...it could get ugly. So much so that PIT might get comfortably ahead, ease up, and let Winston feed Njoku for some garbage time goodness or something. I like PIT and the OVER.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago - hide
Looking ahead: DAL is bad but Lawrence, Bland, Lewis & Cooks are due back soon. I hope they get worked in DC (speaking of DC - Quinn revenge game?). Side note... how'd DAL let Quinn, Armstrong & Biadasz go? 3 great pieces to a div rival. Thinking of betting DAL in the near future - maybe vs DeVito 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago

@Baird

I'm glad you said that about the Cowboys. Thought I was alone in sensing emerging value with DAL, even with their two-headed abomination at QB.

As you said, a lot of key contributors are filtering back into the DAL lineup. However, Jake Ferguson, Zach Martin and Tyler Smith not practicing has me worried that it may just be one step forward, two steps back for the Cowboys, and that would be in line with the Murphy's Law-type season they're having. (I read that parts of the AT&T Stadium roof were falling onto the field Monday. Things are literally falling apart for Jerry Jones.)

Still, I'm very tempted to take the plunge with DAL +10.5 @WAS. At this juncture, I think DAL might be sneaking into undervalued territory, while I'm confident WAS is a bit overvalued right now. (Daniels is hurt and barely moving around back there. He hasn't been right in weeks.) If I'm right, I wanna get out ahead of it.

DAL has been taking snot-bubble beatings at home this season, but they're keeping games within six points on the road...rivalry game where DAL officially has nothing to lose and WAS may be feeling pressure to keep up in the WC race...just feeling a DAL cover if Martin and Smith play.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago
Looking ahead: DAL is bad but Lawrence, Bland, Lewis & Cooks are due back soon. I hope they get worked in DC (speaking of DC - Quinn revenge game?). Side note... how'd DAL let Quinn, Armstrong & Biadasz go? 3 great pieces to a div rival. Thinking of betting DAL in the near future - maybe vs DeVito 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 5 day(s) ago

@Karensman - you're prob right on the Chubb injury. I assumed BAL & LAC were match up issues and the bye was helpful. Takes me back to Mr. Bitter's comment... "the ghost of Chubb will limp" I cant find it below but that was pure comedy and sticks with me. Not that it matters, but when I checked the stats he was 10 for 50 and now he shows 11 for 50. Odd, but 4.5 not 5.0 vs NO.

I dont like the TNF game but I like your take on the refs. I may roll 0.5U on CLE +9.5 to start a 6-game teaser for fun.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
11 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Nick Chubb is a month shy of his 29th birthday. That's old relative to RBs, and Chubb is a very old 29. Last season's leg injury was vomit-inducing, and he had an equally gross leg injury in college.

Chubb is the heart and soul of the team - so his return has some short-term "good vibes" value - but he just doesn't look the same. Given his age/mileage, I think it would be a miracle if he ever will.

As for Stafford - yeah, everyone in the NFL is playing hurt to some degree, but not all injuries are equal. From what I've gathered, Stafford's main issue is his back - and back issues are often career-killers. Stafford is approaching 37. He's still a high-level QB, but It just feels like he's on borrowed time.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

Karensman • 31 Posts (11

) •
11 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I haven't been watching the Browns games close enough to see how Chubb is playing. If I remember correctly didn't he suffer a catastrophic knee injury last year. The original projection was that they hoped that he would be able to play sometime this year ? What they didn't mention was what level of performance he would reach. Serious injuries take a long recovery time just to be able to play, usually at much less than maximum performance as well as the speed, maneuverability, and recovery period from a physical game all becoming factors. One of the toughest parts of handicapping football injuries is trying to determine whether a player is fully recovered. Most players come back early and are shot up with pain pills that masks the pain but doesn't enhance performance. I'm also leaning towards the Bears but refuse to bet them because I'm a lifelong fan. [ I also hate being at a huge coaching disadvantage ]

Also as far as injuries : you always keep in mind that Stafford may be more injured than we think. Doesn't that go for a lot of QB's ? I know Stafford was really brutalized when he played behind a horrible OL in Detroit all those years. When he got a chance to play behind a quality line in LA he won the Super Bowl but hasn't seemed to reach that level of his first year in LA [ mostly because of O-Line ] .

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
11 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Baird

The rain/wind should be advantageous for PIT. It only strengthens the Boswell>Hopkins angle.

I think Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up for CLE. Harris/Warren were biting off chunks vs. BAL, so running on CLE should be no problem.

I'm liking CHI as a home dog. Very often, mid-season coordinator firings are just a case of somebody taking the fall for organization-wide problems, but in the case of Shane Waldron, I think he really was the problem. The Bears should improve going forward, and I don't trust Sam Darnold in this spot.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@Karensman - I can see that happening. I do think the BAL game was CLE's big one but this definitely has a playoff feel for them, at home & prime time. Plus letdown for PIT on a short week. A little help for the refs may be all they need. I'm keeping an eye on the weather; it should be windy, maybe rain. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - early leans? Still going through the match ups and will throw some thoughts out to get your take. So far, I find myself making points for/against both sides of most game. Hopefully tomorrow's injury report helps. With that said, I started a few teasers last night... HOU (won) & IND+14 (1.1 to win1) HOU (won) & WAS-4 (1.1 to win1) HOU (won) & TB+1 (1.1 to win1) 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

Karensman • 31 Posts (11

) •
11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I watched some of the Browns game and I thought that you guys were in good shape going into the 4th quarter. I have a question about this week though : Doesn't it feel like this week is their Super Bowl game ? At home against a bitter rival, on national tv ? Probably their most important game the rest of the year. It might be time to take out their frustrations on the Steelers who seldom play well when their favored. I have to be careful about saying this but the league [ and by extension the referees ] hope that it will be a close game and go right down to the end. The steelers could easily win but not cover.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@Baird Yeah, you're right. Hopkins was pretty good for a while after replacing York, but he's gone right back to being the same bad kicker he was before coming to CLE. Meanwhile, Boswell is a machine. Even if Myles Garrett dominates vs. PIT (which he usually does), the game likely comes down to ST. Betting CLE is probably getting too cute. Any early leans? 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - well said! Freakin Hill & definite letdown spot for PIT. My main worry is Hopkins. His 51-yd miss wasnt too bad, but the 30 yard miss (penalties) & miss again from 20 something is wild. In a game that should be close, Hopkins may be the deciding factor. 1 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Wow CLE looked awful. The defense, kicker & special teams forgot to show up. Winston threw for 400, Chubb ran for 5ypc but Taysom Hill had 7 carries so there was that. At least the games that looked easy came through to limit the bleeding - LAR, MIN, DET, HOU, etc. Bad week for me (-7.7U) 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago

@Baird

Freakin' Taysom Hill, man. Feels like he's been around since 2002, and he's one of those Mormon mission BYU grads...how is he not like 47 years old? Spends most of his time injured, only popping up to go nuclear when it ruins NO's draft position and absolutely screws me in betting and DFS tournaments. I wish he'd just stop.

Just piss-poor special teams and overall tackling from CLE. Rare quiet game from Myles Garrett. I still think CLE was the right side, although I probably underrated the absence of JO-K. He would have come in handy in limiting Hill.

I'm probably a glutton for punishment, but I'm sniffing around CLE +4 at home vs. PIT. Feels like a trap game for the Steelers.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@KM what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night As a (an before A doesnt sound right). As uh Anaheim Rams fan, I teased 6U+ on MIA +8.5 with the understanding that I have 3U on LAR > 6.5 wins. I lost 1U on the over - same as tonight. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 11 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Simple for me. CHUBB preseason came 3 weeks ago vs CIN, then he battled 2 great run Ds in BAL (#1 ypc) & LAC #1 Rush TD allowed. He should keep the chains moving vs #31 ypc D (Saints @ 5.1). Carr had all the time in the world to throw w/ ATL zero pass rush (I watched the 30 min condensed replay & it was obvious), coach firing, blocked FG and missed FGs. TNF would normally be a worry, but not off a bye. I think the trajectory of CLE since Watson injury, SB vs BAL and letdown VS a good LAC team + BYE is a perfect setup for this week. Public has not caught up - THIS IS NOT D. WATSON Browns. JO-K is a big loss though.

Like I said, Chubb should keep the chains moving, Tillman is coming on strong, Moore is getting more rec, Carr wont have time, Njoku is healthy and CLE has 1 small chance for playoffs (plus pride?). I think Walt is good w/ 24-17 final. I'm thinking further apart. GL

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 11 day(s) ago

@Mr.Bitter - "TB is still undervalued"

I agree completely
1. They have wins against good teams - WAS, DET & PHI
2. The losses arent bad - DEN (letdown game), ATL (should have split) + BAL, KC & SF

The bye came at the right time - Evans & Tykee should be back by 11/24, Otton has come on strong and the fight in Mayfield is impressive. The rest of their schedule is cake, except @ LAC.

Remaining favored - NYG, CAR (twice), LVR, DAL & NO.

TB > 8.5 wins (2U to win 2)

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 12 day(s) ago
@Karensman - I'm w Bitter as my top play is CLE. I was lucky to tease them before SNF @ +8.5 and continued to add at +7. I have 10.6U on teasers with CLE getting a TD+. I'm going to hit the ML on Sat and will prob go 5-8 units getting near even money. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 15 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - good call on TB/HOU covers (even w Collins out). You guys were spot on w/ Ind for a while, but BUF is for real. I do like IND next week knowing Jets season is done. Wish I stuck to my HUGE bet idea on AZ. Oh well, teasers still came through.

Hope you made money this week. I got lucky w/ KC and lost a few on Conner. Overall +9.4 today

Looking ahead - teasing CLE 8.5 vs Saints. I looked back to Antonio Pierce in 2023 after they showed up vs NYG

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

@Walt - You have PIT as a great teaser leg (me too), but no bet? You also have MIN as a top play @ -7. Why not PIT+9 paired w/ MIN-1 for a few? Cmon dude, add some PIT and enjoy the fresh D-line vs a rookie QB w/ PHI on Thurs. Also SF 0 &/or LAC -1.5. Seems like a great weekend.

PIT +3 (1.2 to win 1)
PIT+9/LAC-1.5 (2.2 to win 2)
PIT+9 spread out (5.6 to win a mix)

Golfing tomorrow so prob wont post again & felt like I'd get my notes out to revisit Sun AM.

Teaser leans...
ATL +2.5 - hated this game w/ coach firing, home field and div - felt like Saints. BUT something tells me this means a lot to ATL to fully clinch div (DEN & bye next).
*The game I was looking for last week was NO/CAR where -7 teased to -1 failed. Maybe I'm Bitter this week
PIT +9
SF -
LAC -1.5
PHI -1 (why does this worry me, its Copper Rush)
MIN -1
KC-2

Sorry for all the posts - notes to keep me honest & appreciate feedback. GL

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
Odds on J.Bosa sack? I cant find any Sack in week 1 & 2. Only played 2 snaps in week 3 and got hurt. Played limited week 8/9 and now has the best mismatch of the week vs Watson. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 17 day(s) ago - hide
Odds on J.Bosa sack? I cant find any Sack in week 1 & 2. Only played 2 snaps in week 3 and got hurt. Played limited week 8/9 and now has the best mismatch of the week vs Watson. 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
Secondary is Hunter vs Skipper w/ Decker out. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

AZ - I really wanted to like AZ this week (and still do a bit going into their bye), but my hope of CHI showing up last week failed and we have a desperate NY team coming to town. I'm on the fence on betting AZ ML, but have a few +7.5-8 on teasers and love James Conner in this w/ Mosley out.

Conner 80+ & 1TD (1U to win 1.97)
Conner 100+ & 2TD (1U to win 9.5)

Hoping the first hits and I freeroll the second. GL

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 24 day(s) ago

What am I missing this week? It feels like the perfect TEASER weekend which also feels wrong. There has to be something I'm missing.

I loved DAL +9, but all the OUT injuries have me spooked (not a Halloween pun). ATL is the rightish side, but +3 isnt enough after the TB game and neither is DAL +9. I still like Dak/Lamb vs 0 pass rush (plus best kicker in the league **prob dif in the game indoors) and dare I say Dowdle starting. But I went too big on DAL early in the week and now regret it. Learning leasons every week.

Leans with all current info...
Buf - (is this the weird one that loses? No way, maybe. Why only 6 & not 8.5?)
IND +11.5
PHI -1.5
Dal +8.5-9 (now regret), adding ATL +3 to slightly balance
Saints -1 (why is this stuck at 7 w/ Carr & Hill back and Young starting? Hubbard kills it? IDK)
KC -2.5
LAR +4.5 (AJ Barner DK $2600)

Secondary
Mix Den 15.5 & Bal 3.5 - who has Den beat? Lets not forget Bal went to KC (great D is my point) and lost by a Likely inch. Of course TNF is the issue - wait, doesnt DEN have KC next?
Mix LVR +13 & CIN -1 - hate this game but trying to middle.
Mix Chi/AZ
*If AZ faces 100% of Chi's D (like a tough game to get 20 points) I'm going huge ML on AZ vs NYJ the next week, before their bye and before SEA, X, SEA.
**Prob - lead in the Div has to have AZ pumped this week (Hail Mary has CHI deflated? Or chewed out & focused?, 2nd road game)

Please give insight on CHI VS AZ cause I want to bet HUGE on AZ ML vs NYJ next week.

LAR/SEA > 42
LAC/CLE < 48.5
NE/TEN < 44

I love this week teaser-wise which cant be a good thing.

WAS vs NYG??

GL-Baird

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 24 day(s) ago - hide

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 23 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter

I appreciate the feedback. I dont like the AZ game this week either - just hoping CHI shows up so AZ looks bad and the line next week is a little softer w NYJ coming off a win.

You could be on to something with the BUF motivation angle, but I expect more of a letdown to come from them next week (after MIA & before KC/bye).

Im w you on PHI and love it on teasers @ -1.5; however, there is also the letdown angle as they are coming off a blowout win and have DAL/WAS next. Plus Hines-Allen vs whoever is at LT is a prob.

GL today

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 24 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
11 month(s) 24 day(s) ago

@Baird

I think BUF is most likely to be the weird one that loses. The Bills are no doubt the better team with better coaching, but the Dolphins just plain score a lot of points when Tua is under center. This is also must-win time for MIA, whereas BUF is so comfortably ahead in the AFC East that there may already be a need to manufacture motivation. The true QUESTIONABLE tags for Amari Cooper and Christian Benford are also concerning if you're on BUF.

I can't back ARI with any confidence, even with all of the O-line problems and defensive injuries for CHI. The ARI defense is just so untalented. While their 4-4 record is commendable considering their SOS, it still feels like a flimsy 4-4. That defense will start hemorrhaging points at any moment.

Tough slate. I could go either way on most of the games this weekend. The most solid bets are ATL -3 and PHI -7.5, IMO. I'm kinda liking CLE as a home dog and definitely liking DET as a road favorite. (DET is a tough-minded team built to control the LOS, so the "Goff/dome team" angle as overblown, IMO. DET could easily dominate the trenches in what is shaping up to be a slop fest, especially with GB center Josh Myers DOUBTFUL.)

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
11 month(s) 24 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 11 month(s) 24 day(s) ago
@Baird - I rarely bet college, but started 3 cards w Penn+9-9.5 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

MIA - The cynical side of me cant help but think the Tyreek Hill iffy status is a ploy. He was smiling ear to ear hearing Tua would likely play. Did he get beat up last game or something I missed? I feel like he should be super fresh. Im being a homer and will be all over MIA Sun morning IF both are a go. Also, Gardeck out gets no mention? He's their best pass rusher - huge deal for a mediocre AZ D traveling across the country, outdoors after a big prime time win . I also think MIA's running game gets going (despite or in-spite of what AZ D did last week).

BUF - I'm teasing Buf +3 as well. Was waiting for Woolen to come back, but its a wash with Cooper. The weather is the only thing keeping SEA from getting trashed by 10+ at home. SEA should be able to run the ball and shorten the game, but without Metcalf I cant see them sustaining drives. He's a huge missing piece. BUF has MIA next which is the only thing keeping me from going crazy.

Note to self: BUF has destroyed middling teams and got worked by better competition. SEA without DK is def the former.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago - hide

Note to self: BUF has destroyed middling teams and got worked by better competition. SEA without DK is def the former.

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Baird

Still love the Colts. I got them at +5.5, and - unless I'm missing something - would take them in a heartbeat at the current +4.5. I'm with Walt - IND could easily win outright.

HOU can be had up the gut, especially now with the injuries at LB and S. I'm assuming the IND coaching staff is smart enough to put designed runs for Anthony Richardson back on the menu. If so, AR and Taylor should be able to control the clock. Worse case scenario is Richardson craps the bed and gets benched for Flacco, in which case Pittman and Downs eat. Either way, the Colts should make it a game.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago - hide

Note to self: BUF has destroyed middling teams and got worked by better competition. SEA without DK is def the former.

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Baird

Yeah, trends don't last forever and every game is different. I only consider trends when I've exhausted every other possible angle and all things are equal.

The Parsons/Bland news sobered me up. That, and the realization that DAL - at 3-3 - likely isn't in "must win" mode yet. That could be next week @ ATL. My initial lean just feels a week too early. Should Parsons and/or Bland return @ ATL, I'll probably be on the Cowboys.

I still think the 49ers are slightly overrated, but the Cowboys are really hurting. There was talk of Tyler Smith sticking at LT - which I liked - but it looks like DAL will continue to ride out Guyton's growing pains. Bosa could easily go nuclear on Guyton/Steele. A dominant Bosa game, a healthy dose of Jordan Mason (DAL has no answer vs. the run) and a sprinkle of Kittle should be enough for something like a 26-20 SF win.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago - hide

Note to self: BUF has destroyed middling teams and got worked by better competition. SEA without DK is def the former.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Saw you back off Dal a bit. Obviously Phillips & Parson is a big deal. Looking forward to Bland & Parsons back. Saw 13-3-1 ish McCarthy ATS coming off extra time. Not a fan of trends and backed off the game myself. 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago - hide

Note to self: BUF has destroyed middling teams and got worked by better competition. SEA without DK is def the former.

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@Baird Was also surprised by no mention of Gardeck. The ARI defense officially has no pass rush, and - no offense to Dennis Gardeck - the fact that Gardeck was the front seven defender ARI could least afford to lose shows just how little talent they have. Take away Budda Baker and that's little better than a practice squad-quality depth chart. 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

I put 3U on Rams > 6.5 wins before the LVR game last week (5 wins to go) thinking they would be competitive when healthy. I figured they would give vikings trouble on a short week, coming off a Det battle. Now, I'm concerned hearing all the trade talk. That normally happens when a team mails it in. Also, I was hopeful JJ III would be back to assist on D but Nacua is good surprise.

In any case, I'm opening teasers and trying to double tonight with more on Min +3 to +3.5 with small on Rams +9. I also added 1 teaser w/ over 41.

Leaving for Vegas Saturday morning to cash tickets and will add teasers and ML parlays.

Teaser leans...
Det -5
Cle +14.5-15 and will put a few Bal -2.5 to -3
*Love Cle in this spot with Watson gone, Wyatt maybe back, Bal coming off a big prime time win. Feels so Cle in this one
Ind +11
ATL +3.5
*Seems like a gift to get more than a FG vs Tampa's situation. For the record, I was on Tampa before the injuries and thought they'd fold vs BAL.
NYJ -1
Cin +3.5
KC -3.5 - I hated this game until Walt threw the LVR frog info
Den -4

And will mix in a little Dal +10 for Mr. Bitter's take (& SF injuries).

ML parlays to follow - GL

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Karensman You make some great points. Any plays you like this week? 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

What a great week! Finally, reversion to the mean after 5+ point dogs killed it earlier this season. I havent seen an NFL weekend this normal in a long time.

NE - bottom 3 team with a rookie QB making his 1st start lost by 20
CAR - bottom 3 team missing key players lost to a div rival by 18
On a side note: this was the final leg of ATL's 3-game division run. I think we see a letdown from them next week. Oh, ATL has TB after they play SEA too (4 div games in 5 weeks). I'm on the Seahawks
AZ - won the Superbowl last week then came out flat, on the road vs a superior team and lost by 21
WAS - stepped up in competition and showed their defensive liability
PIT - played against a backup QB missing starting RB, star WR, #2 WR & RT. Held em to 13 points
DET - came off bye and destroyed an inferior team missing key players. Cant wait to see them vs Min next week (too bad Hutch is done).

On to Monday night...

How much time will they spend talking about the Saleh firing? The MNF team should be talking about how important this game is in the AFC East race. NE isnt winning it; MIA isnt either - this game means so much to both teams and I expect a dog fight.

The teams seem pretty even to me and Saleh getting fired wont make AR suddenly play better. The Jets had to travel back from London, but they do get home field advantage. Another thing to note is this is BUF's 3rd road game in a row.

I dont like this game from a spread standpoint and can easily see either team winning but think it will be close - what QB makes the least mistakes? With that said, I have (2) live teasers being closed with NYJ +8.5

I'm starting another teaser with NYJ +7, SEA +9 and WAS -2.

GL to all

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
Good call on Deebo. I thought Yuk would have the benefit lining up out left but Deebo's big TD was to the left. Bravo on the wheel/grease. Often that art supersedes stats 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Not sure I agree with the assessment of Bucs run D...

"Bucs have one of the top run defenses in the NFL" - maybe last year, but they're giving up 5 ypc (tied for 27th) and have allowed 7 rushing TDs (only DAL & AZ are worse w 8)

"Vea returned last week and helped his team put the clamps on Saquon Barkley" - Barkley had 8.4 ypc (10 for 84). I get that he did have a long run to help the stats, but with Brown and Smith out its not like the D had to focus on the pass game.

With that said, I am teasing TB +7.5 but dont want to get complacent thinking TB will easily shutdown Robinson & Allgeier - GL

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
Im with you on Hou for two reasons (aside from home field). #1 is Anderson & Hunter vs 2 horrible tackles and #2 is Jax is weak at CB and has the 2 worst rated safties in the league. With that said, Jags play a ton of man and CJ's numbers... Man 53.7 completion & 90.7 Rating Zone 67.2 & 104.1 I'm teasing a ton to 0.5 Hope Mixon can go - GL 1 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

End of the season so might as well go big. Its always scary betting against Mahomes (especially in BIG games), but I like the match up edge the Ravens have. I dont think Thuney is huge blow because his backup is decent and KCs issue has been on the edges, but his departure along with Toney & Gay (he was supposed to spy Lamar) as well as Pacheco not being 100% helps Bal.

I bet on Fri @ -205 ML and -3.5 spread
20.5u to win 10u ML
2.4u to win 2u spread
Bal wins 26-18

I'm not confident in the Det/SF game as I can see Det keeping it close, winning or getting blown out. My gut says Det doesnt score more than 24. I mixed up teasers with Det +13 & SF -1 and put a little on Lions spread.

Det +7 (2u)
SF wins 30-24

Lastly, I mixed game props...
Purdy>1.5 pass TDs, McCaffrey<18.5 carries & Bal 1st to 20 points @ +365
.8 to win 2.92

GL to all - lets go Ravens!

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

I bet on Fri @ -205 ML and -3.5 spread
20.5u to win 10u ML
2.4u to win 2u spread
Bal wins 26-18

Det +7 (2u)
SF wins 30-24

Lastly, I mixed game props...
Purdy>1.5 pass TDs, McCaffrey<18.5 carries & Bal 1st to 20 points @ +365
.8 to win 2.92

GL to all - lets go Ravens!

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

@Baird

Good stuff. I'm with you on both games, only I think DET might win SU. On paper SF is the right side, but something feels off...like they're kinda in cruise control, while DET is playing with fire in their belly. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I'm scarred by the images of Dontayvion Wicks handling Chase Young as if he was an All-Pro tackle. Just a gut call: DET 31 SF 28

BAL will take care of business. It's their year. I think you're underrating the loss of Thuney. Not because he's absolutely irreplaceable, but because KC's only hope for a championship run was establishing their new downhill running/defense identity on the fly, meaning their O-line absolutely could not afford to be weakened beyond what it already was. Combine that with BAL having a potential Kelce-eraser in Kyle Hamilton, and KC should find it difficult to put up points.

Underrated angle: I love the Mahomes commercials. He could seriously have a post-football future as a comedian. However, that media saturation along with the Kelce/Swift stuff...I dunno, it just feels like KC is fattened up for the kill. Again, maybe I'm overthinking it, but have you seen Lamar Jackson's interviews lately? Dude is focused at a frightening, eye of the tiger level.

BAL 31 KC 20

GL and enjoy your Sunday

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 9 month(s) ago

CHI @ GB - It looks like Johnson will be out and Gordon is questionable which hurts CHI's D. Sweat has been a great addition but hes up against a tough RT in Tom whos only allowed 2 sacks in 1,000+ snaps. Add in that Love may finally get all 3 receivers on the field, they're at home and Dillon is out so the better back (Jones) should get more touches/receptions.

I've been riding the Bears train for weeks now and while I really appreciate the $$$$ theyve brought, this is my stop I'm off.

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 10 month(s) ago
@Mr. Football It'll be interesting to see this weeks Dal/Mia matchup. Dallas struggles on the road and Mia cant beat a team with a winning record. Somethings gotta give 0 0

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 10 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - Nice call 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 11 month(s) ago

CIN vs BAL – The Hubbard/Higgins vs Stanley/Humphrey injuries favor Baltimore. The Ravens have a good backup in Mekari and boast one of the league’s top offensive lines – they’ll be fine without Stanley (especially with Hendrickson banged up and Hubbard out). Same with Humphrey as Ya-Sin has been just as good AND is matching up with Irwin instead of Higgins.

Both teams lost on late field goals last week, but luckily for Bal they’re not playing one of the leagues best Ds and unluckily for Cin they’re not enjoying the confines of home vs an average opponent. Give me the home team on a short week. While I don’t think this will be a blowout like Bal vs Det or Sea, I do think Bal establishes the lead and never gives it up.

On a side note, Keaton Mitchell has been very Devon Achane-esque in that he can go to the house anytime he touches the ball. Its no surprise that both runners have a PFF grade of 93-94 (albeit a small sample size). None the less, Harbaugh has said Mitchell will be more involved this week which should be a huge boost to the Ravens as the rookie comes to the game with fresh legs.

Mitchell > 38.5 RY (1U)
Mitchel +15 ½ RY vs Mixon total (.5U)
Bal -190 ML (2U)
*Fully transparency, I started (2) teasers cards with Cin +9 ½ and (2) others with Bal +2 ½. I’m hoping the 4 cards stay live with a 28-20 type final.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 11 month(s) ago

TEN vs PIT - The Titans have been great at home, going 3-0 and scoring 27, 27 & 28. Conversely, they're 0-4 on the road scoring 15, 3, 16 & 16. This makes me lean Pit’s way, but Ten has been good vs the run and Pit doesnt have a run game so Pit will have to rely on their receivers & D to win the game.

The Titans should be able to establish Henry and limit the burden on Levis, but there is a chance Heyward plays which will help a bit. With that said, Ten’s O-line took a hit w Hubbard in concussion protocol. If he cant go, that puts Petit-Frere against Watt (huge mismatch). The other side of the line isn’t much better either as Highsmith has a great matchup against Dillard (46.4 pass grade). If the ground game stalls, Levis will be in for a long night.

I’m not confident w either side but lean with the home team as Pit has a much better turnover differential, are penalized less & have home advantage on TNF.

With that said, I do like…
Highsmith > 0.25 sacks
Robinson > 1.5 rec (good matchup in slot & SM-B should limit his side of the field forcing Pickett to look elsewhere)

I may also go Watt > 0.75 sacks (if Hubbard is out) and possibly Levis < 201.5 passing

GL

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 11 month(s) ago - hide

I’m not confident w either side but lean with the home team as Pit has a much better turnover differential, are penalized less & have home advantage on TNF.

With that said, I do like…
Highsmith > 0.25 sacks
Robinson > 1.5 rec (good matchup in slot & SM-B should limit his side of the field forcing Pickett to look elsewhere)

I may also go Watt > 0.75 sacks (if Hubbard is out) and possibly Levis < 201.5 passing

GL

	Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396 ) • 1 years 11 month(s) ago
@Baird Nice call. Rock solid handicapping. 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 12 month(s) ago - hide

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

You reference Pits win vs Bal but I think that was a facade. The Ravens played 3 ROAD games vs div opps in 4 weeks and had to fly to UK following the following week. A bit of a letdown, but the kicker was Moses out so Watt caused issues on the right side of the line. Many other BAL players were out too so not as impressive of a win as it seemed.

Cam Robinson should limit Highsmith and if Little can play, the left side will be shored up. The mismatch Ridley & Kirk have over Wallace/Sullivan is ridiculous. Also, Jags run game vs Pit run D > Harris vs Jags run D (I cant believe Warren isnt getting 80%+ of the touches). Lets even throw in extra rest for Jax.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 12 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Yes, it looks like all practiced today except Jones who is the least impactful of the bunch IMO. I'm hoping the line doesnt move too much (ML is up to -145 now). I appreciate the confirmation on Jax - GL 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 12 month(s) ago

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 12 month(s) ago - hide

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

Mr. Bitter • 606 Posts (396

) •
1 years 12 month(s) ago

@Baird

I think rain would likely favor the Jaguars. JAX has the superior rushing attack, assuming PIT doesn't suddenly give Warren the vast bulk of carries (which they just refuse to do against all logic).

Then there's the whole Kenny Pickett/small hands thing...

The Jaguars are likely to have Tyson Campbell, Walker Little, Zay Jones and stud run-clogger DaVon Hamilton back in the lineup. JAX is absolutely the right side in this one.

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
1 years 12 month(s) ago - hide

JAX vs PIT - I love the Jags this week & was surprised to see your on Pit.

My only concern is the weather w rain in the forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but leaning...

Jags ML -135 (6U) Final 27-16

	Baird • 91 Posts (58 ) • 1 years 12 month(s) ago
I forgot the biggest mismatch... Josh Allen (89.8 PFF) vs Dan Moore (27 pass block grade) 0 0

Baird • 91 Posts (58

) •
2 years 0 month(s) ago

A friendly nudge Walt -

ATL isnt lighting up the scoreboard and although they play well at home, they grind the clock & dont win by much (unless your the crappy Panthers w rookie QB making his 1st start). WAS just got blown out and had extra time to rest/prep. I agree with you that ATL should win but I expect WAS to be focused and keep it close.

Why not go through the key numbers and start a teaser w WAS +8.5

Ditto with SEA +9 - GL