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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
3 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter No worries.  I was just busting your balls back.  I agree with you most of the time.  However, with the Steelers losing 4 consecutive games and the Ravens winning 4 straight games, I just don't see an upset.  Especially playing @ BAL.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
3 day(s) 16 hour(s) ago

@DoctorJ 

Hey, that hurts. I thumbed-up your comment. I was just busting balls with the crazy thing.

Like I said - unreliable. 1 catch for zero yards vs. the Bengals. Just ask any Steelers fan what they think of George Pickens.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
3 day(s) 16 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter George Pickens has been dealing with a hamstring injury since December 6th.  Week 14 = DNP; Week 15 = DNP; Week 16 = DNP; Week 17 = 7 Targets, 3 Rec., 50 Yds.; Week 18 = 6 Targets, 1 Rec., 0 Yds.  Last year's WC game was a long time ago and isn't really relevant to this season.  Yeah, I'm the crazy one.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
4 day(s) 3 hour(s) ago

@DoctorJ 

Wouldn't count on Freiermuth doing much. In his two games vs. BAL this season, he has a combined 5 catches for 30 yards.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
4 day(s) 7 hour(s) ago

@woo hoo 

I think Tomlin is a very good coach. He just doesn't have the horses to hang with BAL, regardless of how much his players may like him. These are two teams going in opposite directions.

No defense can stop the BAL offense right now - Flowers or no Flowers. The '24 BAL offense is 2nd-best EPA all-time behind only the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. BAL is 1st in EPA/pass and EPA/rush, while the defense has been 1st in EPA/pass and #1 in total EPA from weeks 11-18. The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL by every metric, and what few early-season weaknesses they had are now strengths.

Tomlin squeezed what he could from Russell Wilson, but we all kinda knew reality would set in as far as that goes. I doubt Wilson will just be able to turn that midseason form back on against a focused BAL team that is peaking in all three phases. Pat Freiermuth isn't enough. There's a reason Tomlin is hinting at getting Justin Fields more involved in this game. The Wilson magic has run it's course and isn't returning.

Pickens is petulant and unreliable. We're talking about a WR1 with more career unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and fumbles than TDs. I seriously think he's more likely to get frustrated and disqualified than get loose in this matchup. The BAL secondary has been throwing blankets on WR1s much better than Pickens since Week 11.

John Harbaugh teams are rarely caught off guard, and I can't see that happening in this spot. Not with the way last season ended vs. KC. The Steelers are likely walking into a buzzsaw, and Vegas knows it.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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chuckster • 365 Posts (317 ) •
4 day(s) 7 hour(s) ago
@woo hoo:  If the Ravens get caught "unaware" on a Playoff game at Home,  then shame on them.  I like the Ravens.  GL to you going forward.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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woo hoo • 7 Posts (5 ) •
4 day(s) 8 hour(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter 

Even though I agree the Ravens are the favorites, the Steelers might be playing for Tomlin's job. Even though he's clearly a mediocre coach he's still loved by the players, particularly the veterans on that team. That might catch the Ravens off guard.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
7 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
I don't know about the Steelers upsetting the Ravens.  George Pickens has been invisible since he returned from injury.  He might be still feeling the effects.  Pat Freiermuth has been the go to receiver.  Also, Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB we saw earlier in the season.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens seem to be hitting in all phases of the game right now.  I'll be betting on them big.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
4 day(s) 8 hour(s) ago

@DoctorJ 

You must be crazy. Pickens is a clutch late-season and playoffs performer. I mean, have you already forgotten his monster 11 TGT/5 REC/50 YD/0 TD/1 LOST FMB performance in PIT's 31-17 loss to BUF in last season's WC?

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
21 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago - hide
If Alvin Kamara doesn't play for the Saints, I'm picking the Raiders.  Although Aidan O'Connell isn't a great QB, he can make plays to TE Brock Bowers.  Spencer Rattler looked terrible against the Packers on MNF.
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
19 day(s) 5 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - I have to * the Goedert #s w Brown out, but the others are legitimate.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
21 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago
If Alvin Kamara doesn't play for the Saints, I'm picking the Raiders.  Although Aidan O'Connell isn't a great QB, he can make plays to TE Brock Bowers.  Spencer Rattler looked terrible against the Packers on MNF.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
21 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago - hide
If Alvin Kamara doesn't play for the Saints, I'm picking the Raiders.  Although Aidan O'Connell isn't a great QB, he can make plays to TE Brock Bowers.  Spencer Rattler looked terrible against the Packers on MNF.
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
19 day(s) 10 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - very well said on circumstantial-side of Saints D vs TEs & thanks for diving into the TE #s. Looks less appealing w the thought of Bowers killing it and Abdullah giving them a viable running game. I cant get past the feeling that Rizzi will have this team playing 100% vs LVR maybe 75%? New Orleans will be rocking and I think both O&D lines for the Saints will be the difference... plus getting a TD on teasers after that egg vs GB feels right.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
19 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago
Ian Book was just signed by the PHI Eagles to their practice squad.  If Jalen Hurts doesn't clear concussion protocol and Kenny Pickett is still injured, we may see Book starting on Sunday vs the Cowboys.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
19 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago - hide
Ian Book was just signed by the PHI Eagles to their practice squad.  If Jalen Hurts doesn't clear concussion protocol and Kenny Pickett is still injured, we may see Book starting on Sunday vs the Cowboys.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
19 day(s) 11 hour(s) ago

@DoctorJ 

Pickett practiced and spoke to the media. He'll probably start.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
21 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago - hide
If Alvin Kamara doesn't play for the Saints, I'm picking the Raiders.  Although Aidan O'Connell isn't a great QB, he can make plays to TE Brock Bowers.  Spencer Rattler looked terrible against the Packers on MNF.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
20 day(s) 18 hour(s) ago

@Baird 

I'd take NO's ranking vs. TEs with a grain of salt. The LB crew is the strength of their defense, but a lot of their success vs. TEs has been circumstantial.

Right off the bat, the NFC South is a below-average TE division. The NO TE defense has been bolstered by 4 games vs. CAR (where TEs are an ever-injured hodgepodge of afterthoughts) and ATL (where Pitts has basically become the Invisible Man). In NO's 51-27 blowout loss to TB, Otton was getting in a lather and had an early TD before sitting out, and Godwin was gobbling up every target in sight anyway (11/125/2).

The NO non-division schedule has featured DAL (Ferguson OUT), DEN (practice squad-level TEs rarely targeted), LAR (Higbee OUT), NYG (Theo Johnson OUT), WAS (Ertz left early-1st quarter w/concussion), LAC (Hurst OUT/Dissly injured), and GB (blowout/Kraft unneeded as Packers basically did whatever they want). 

In their only three games vs. healthy, dangerous TEs that demand 2nd/3rd option volume, the Saints have given up 9/81 to David Njoku, 11/99 to Kelce (9/70)/Gray, and 10/170 (!!) to Dallas Goedert. Bowers is basically WR1 for LV and should go bonkers.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
21 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago - hide
If Alvin Kamara doesn't play for the Saints, I'm picking the Raiders.  Although Aidan O'Connell isn't a great QB, he can make plays to TE Brock Bowers.  Spencer Rattler looked terrible against the Packers on MNF.
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
21 day(s) 3 hour(s) ago
@Baird Side note: Olave back? Vs #116 out of 118 CB Richardson
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
21 day(s) 12 hour(s) ago - hide
If Alvin Kamara doesn't play for the Saints, I'm picking the Raiders.  Although Aidan O'Connell isn't a great QB, he can make plays to TE Brock Bowers.  Spencer Rattler looked terrible against the Packers on MNF.
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
21 day(s) 4 hour(s) ago

@DoctorJ - besides the recent sackfest NO's D has experienced, they are #8 vs TEs (Werner, Davis, Gay). Maybe they have pride in their last home game vs a team tanking for draft picks? I made 8U w GB MNF so I get it, but cmon, its not like LVR looked strong at home vs Jacksonville.

Saints weak O-line vs LVR's stout D-line is worrisome </s>

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
26 day(s) 14 hour(s) ago

Walter - After reading your analysis and Thursday Thoughts, I've switched my pick from the L.A. Chargers to the Denver Broncos:

1)  Justin Herbert's ankle continues to be a concern for me.

2)  Chargers will be missing Cam Hart and Elijah Molden.

3)  The sharps are on Denver.

4)  The Public Money on Denver is 72%.

5)  The Chargers have no running game since J.K. Dobbins went out.

6)  In the past 3 games, the Chargers offense has only scored 17 points in each game.

That's too many red flags to trust the Chargers.  Give me Denver and the points.  I feel the Broncos will win the Moneyline too.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
I have to disagree with Walter on his prediction of BUF 27, DET 24.  The Bills are playing back-to-back road games against playoff teams while the Lions are home both games.  Buffalo is weaker on D in every category on most defensive categories (Total D Run Yds. Allowed, Total TDs Allowed, 3rd Down Pct. Allowed and Red Zone D Allowed.  The Bills are coming off a hard-fought game w/the LA Rams that they lost while the Lions played on TNF so have an added 3 extra days of rest and time for a better game plan.  Yet he picked the SF 49ers to win 31 - 24 over the LA Rams for that very reason.  
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
I have to disagree with Walter on his prediction of BUF 27, DET 24.  The Bills are playing back-to-back road games against playoff teams while the Lions are home both games.  Buffalo is weaker on D in every category on most defensive categories (Total D Run Yds. Allowed, Total TDs Allowed, 3rd Down Pct. Allowed and Red Zone D Allowed.  The Bills are coming off a hard-fought game w/the LA Rams that they lost while the Lions played on TNF so have an added 3 extra days of rest and time for a better game plan.  Yet he picked the SF 49ers to win 31 - 24 over the LA Rams for that very reason.  
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago

@Baird 

Hey, don't give DET too much credit. It was Eberflus that beat CHI by 3.

I'm with Walt. BUF wins SU.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
I have to disagree with Walter on his prediction of BUF 27, DET 24.  The Bills are playing back-to-back road games against playoff teams while the Lions are home both games.  Buffalo is weaker on D in every category on most defensive categories (Total D Run Yds. Allowed, Total TDs Allowed, 3rd Down Pct. Allowed and Red Zone D Allowed.  The Bills are coming off a hard-fought game w/the LA Rams that they lost while the Lions played on TNF so have an added 3 extra days of rest and time for a better game plan.  Yet he picked the SF 49ers to win 31 - 24 over the LA Rams for that very reason.  
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - Hey, they beat CHI by 3, HOU by 3 and GB by 3 (I'm not counting that fluke TD). They did destroy the Colts, Jags & Titans so... watch out BUF. I went small on BUF +7.5 & 8
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
I have to disagree with Walter on his prediction of BUF 27, DET 24.  The Bills are playing back-to-back road games against playoff teams while the Lions are home both games.  Buffalo is weaker on D in every category on most defensive categories (Total D Run Yds. Allowed, Total TDs Allowed, 3rd Down Pct. Allowed and Red Zone D Allowed.  The Bills are coming off a hard-fought game w/the LA Rams that they lost while the Lions played on TNF so have an added 3 extra days of rest and time for a better game plan.  Yet he picked the SF 49ers to win 31 - 24 over the LA Rams for that very reason.  
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
1 month(s) 4 day(s) ago

@DoctorJ 

My only beef with this analysis is the defensive stats angle. DET's defensive stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt now that their front seven has been decimated by injury. I mean, Glenn's scheming is top-notch, but when you're down to starting guys like Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O'Connor, Jonah Williams, Ezekial Turner...that's gotta catch up to you.

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago
Adam Schefter reported today that Drew Lock has replaced Tommy DeVito as the QB for the NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys in tomorrow's Thanksgiving Day game.  That should shift the Giants as the favorite.
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide
Adam Schefter reported today that Drew Lock has replaced Tommy DeVito as the QB for the NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys in tomorrow's Thanksgiving Day game.  That should shift the Giants as the favorite.
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Mr. Bitter • 399 Posts (436 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

@Baird 

Hubbard sucks so, so bad. Two starts: 7 pressures allowed to TB, and 12 (!!!) pressures allowed to PIT in WK 8. Parsons is cleared for takeoff.

Your UNDER is definitely the play. Could we see a 0-0 tie?

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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide
Adam Schefter reported today that Drew Lock has replaced Tommy DeVito as the QB for the NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys in tomorrow's Thanksgiving Day game.  That should shift the Giants as the favorite.
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago
@DoctorJ - I take it back. Burns vs Guyton, Lawrence vs Hoffman (Martin out) and NYG strength Phillips vs Lamb. I cant guess the state of the locker room in NY though. Drew Lock sucks but he can scramble. Throwing a little on the UNDER - GL
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DoctorJ • 7 Posts (7 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide
Adam Schefter reported today that Drew Lock has replaced Tommy DeVito as the QB for the NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys in tomorrow's Thanksgiving Day game.  That should shift the Giants as the favorite.
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Baird • 72 Posts (40 ) •
1 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

@DoctorJ 

Amazing news - I was hoping Lock would go. He looked so bad in preseason, there was a reason he's #3 on depth chart. 1 or 2 int? Parsons 2 or 3 sacks vs Hubbard?

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