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Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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27 day(s) 0 hour(s) ago

@Nagurski : I would tend to agree with you about not trying to Handicap the referees. It's not like the NBA where there are only 3 on the floor and serious fans know their tendencies as well as their names. I believe there are 8 [ or more ] officials for NFL playoff games and the Head Referee seldom calls the penalties with the exception of roughing the passer. The other officials pretty much labor in obscurity - does one referee [ back judge for example ] tend to call more pass interference or 'tend to let the boys play' ? After each quarter these referees switch with the field position meaning they are in each team's backfield for half the game.

I don't know if any teams have a coach that monitors all NFL referees - grading them on the number of calls and frequency the penalties are called. In baseball, professional handicappers keep grades and charts on umpires when they work home plate - lists are accumulated of umpires that call more/less strikes or balls. If at the end of the year one umpire has a 13-3 record of games going over the total and also called less strikes than balls it would be easy to classify the umpire as an over umpire. I believe most teams keep charts on all the umpires so no team really has a significant advantage. Whether the individual teams do an effective job of communicating this information to the players is debatable when you look at the batting statistics for most players. Also, all players when batting react to the pitch location according to their individual strike zone. They don't change their batting style each game because of a scouting report. The coach's can provide charts to the batters showing zones or locations that the umpire calls a higher percentage of strikes [ low and outside for example ] but most batters seldom adjust to this. However, the top Managers can make significant adjustments by knowing an umpire's tendency to call more balls - he can give more take signals, or if he knows the umpire calls more balls, he can call less steals and make the pitchers throw more pitches and wear out the other team's bullpens.

Instead of trying to handicap the referees in the playoffs, I would pay more attention to the coach's. Is there a reason that Sean Payton's teams always seem to over achieve or that Matt Eberflus's teams don't know how to win close games ? I think we all know the answer. In the final 2 matchups Reid is the obvious best Head Coach but how would you rate the other 3 ? Quinn took an overachieving team to the Super Bowl [ Atlanta ] but blew the big lead and game against Brady and never seem to recover from that fiasco. Is this his year of vindication ? Sirianni can be strange but has an excellent record and took one team to the Super Bowl and lost a lead late to the Chiefs although he received little criticism for his team losing ? Sean McDermott has a career 86-45 overall record but always seems to come up short ? If history repeats itself, it would suggest that the Chiefs have the best chance to advance to and win the Super Bowl, but I don't think the gap between these head coaches is that huge this year and I wouldn't count on it for handicapping purposes. If you think one coach is significantly better, that is an angle to consider. Good luck

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter : Glad to hear you've been doing well, keep it up. Making money on the NFL is tough. I couldn't pull the trigger this week although I would have hit the under on the Hou-Kc game. I'm with you as far as Walter, I enjoy reading his matchup writeups and analysis although I don't always agree with his opinion. If I don't have a bet on a game, I will usually root for Walter's team. I have some advice that I think would really help Walter : Spend more time and money handicapping the over/under. I broke into the Race & Sports wagering business in 1982 working at a small casino in North Las Vegas . Down the street was the Delmar Race & Sportsbook which was run by Bill Dark who was the acknowledged Bookmaker that started posting lines on Over/Unders for most sports. I'd like to make one point about over/unders : why are the limits so much lower on Total bets ? Although a lot has changed on sports wagering over the years , the gap on limits between totals wagers and wagers on the sides remains high. Both wagers usually employ the -110 line so the juice for the house remains the same. I firmly believe that Walter's win percentage would improve and he might even be able to go back to posting his picks for free rather than have us subsidize his losses. And like many of his readers, I don't read or pay any attention to his comments on Monday Night Football announcers or Jerks of the Week, I would rather focus on the games. I actually find that the opinions of you and Baird among others are better than Walter's. Good luck to all

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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2 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@Baird & Mr. Bitter : It's been a struggle for me to find a matchup I like [ power underdog ] the last few weeks and this week is no exception. My number #1 play this week sounds like your write up: I like the KC/Houston game Under 42. No need for any more explanation - you covered the reasons for the under quite well. I'm also going with the Jets-Rams game OVER 46. After watching A. Rodgers the last 2 weeks it looks like they are committed to the quick passing game to keep ARod upright and he has 2 great receivers in G. Wilson & D. Adams. Just like the Rams have 2 great receivers Kupp & Nakua. Both teams have solid RB's - B. Hall vs. K.Williams. Neither team's defense stands out. I like to play 3 teams [ 2 team RR parlays ] and on my 3rd pick I took a flyer on SF - Miami Over 45. Being a Bears fan I refuse to bet the Bears but I wouldn't be shocked if they give the Lions trouble. The Lions injuries are really adding up and I think the loss of D. Montgomery is Huge for the Lions. First game at home for the Bears after Sh-tcanning Eberflus, if they are going to put forth some effort it will come this week. Of course, they could sleepwalk through another non-effort also.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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2 month(s) 20 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : Interesting analysis on the Cardinals. To me they look like a team that is a year away [ as does the Chargers ] . M. Harrison Jr. is talented but plays like a rookie and there seems to be a serious problem with quality depth. I noticed from watching the game, especially late in the 4th quarter, that K. Murray seemed reluctant to use his legs to move the chains ? I don't know what to make of that.

As a long time Bear fan I hate to bet them but I think that the Bears are the play this week. No Eberflus around to screw up, and the 49ers are decimated with injuries. Frankly they might not win another game this year as it has to be apparent to their veterans that the team is not going anywhere this year. Lately the Bears have been playing everyone close and the 3 1/2 points should be a nice cushion for a team that should be highly motivated to win.

I make my own line before the actual lines come out and I made the Bengals - 1 over the Cowboys. I was thinking this might be the time to finally back the Bengals but the line has them favored by - 6 ! If I decide to bet that game I would definitely take the Cowboys. The Bengals defense is atrocious, I can't see them holding a lead late in a close game. I know the Cowboys stink, but they have been getting some of their injured players back and they seemed to have a little bit of momentum. I am seldom that far off on a line, and I'm really confused about the 6 point spread. Am I mistaken ?

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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2 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird: As a long time Bear fan I doubt that this week will be the Bears Super Bowl but I honestly don't know what to expect. Last year they gave the Lions fits, losing at Detroit due to Eberflus ineptitude [ blew the win late ] but beat the Lions handily at Soldier Field and roughed up Goff who is not the same outdoors in bad weather. I think their 'Super Bowl' will be in a couple of weeks when they play the Lions at home. I do like the Over tomorrow. Has anyone heard about Burrow complaining about his wrist ? According to what I read he is complaining about pain in cold weather and has not been throwing the ball well in practice ? If he is hurting and ready to shut it down, that team has a lot of quit in it.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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2 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter : I agree that TEN + 6 appears tempting. I don't know if Daniels is still hurt or that Wash is regressing to the mean, but I'm not interested in wagering on them at this time. Not thrilled with this week's schedule; I couldn't lay 4 points with DAL against a good college team and there appears to be traps all over the place. Are you confident in laying 3 with the RAMS on the road in NO ? I'm leaning towards the Cards + 3 1/2 but that is more a fade against the overrated Vikings than an endorsement of the Cards. The wrong team is favored in the Bengal-Steeler game, and I'm interested in the DOL + 3 1/2 but not at - 3. I'm not confident that the TEXANS should be favored by - 5 on the road but want no part of the Jags without Lawrence. Tough week to lay points and not really a great week to take underdogs. Might be a good week to watch !

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I haven't been watching the Browns games close enough to see how Chubb is playing. If I remember correctly didn't he suffer a catastrophic knee injury last year. The original projection was that they hoped that he would be able to play sometime this year ? What they didn't mention was what level of performance he would reach. Serious injuries take a long recovery time just to be able to play, usually at much less than maximum performance as well as the speed, maneuverability, and recovery period from a physical game all becoming factors. One of the toughest parts of handicapping football injuries is trying to determine whether a player is fully recovered. Most players come back early and are shot up with pain pills that masks the pain but doesn't enhance performance. I'm also leaning towards the Bears but refuse to bet them because I'm a lifelong fan. [ I also hate being at a huge coaching disadvantage ]

Also as far as injuries : you always keep in mind that Stafford may be more injured than we think. Doesn't that go for a lot of QB's ? I know Stafford was really brutalized when he played behind a horrible OL in Detroit all those years. When he got a chance to play behind a quality line in LA he won the Super Bowl but hasn't seemed to reach that level of his first year in LA [ mostly because of O-Line ] .

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I watched some of the Browns game and I thought that you guys were in good shape going into the 4th quarter. I have a question about this week though : Doesn't it feel like this week is their Super Bowl game ? At home against a bitter rival, on national tv ? Probably their most important game the rest of the year. It might be time to take out their frustrations on the Steelers who seldom play well when their favored. I have to be careful about saying this but the league [ and by extension the referees ] hope that it will be a close game and go right down to the end. The steelers could easily win but not cover.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Ouch ! Thanks to Baird & Mr. Bitter for the quick response. I'm also aware that Walt thinks this game may be his best bet. I guess that I don't disagree but really don't like either team. I also don't know about the coaching situation. Is the interim coach for NO any good ? [ Probably unlikely ] . Is the coach for Cleveland solid/good ? [ I think he is overrated and not as good as most people think ] . Who's the best offensive player on the field ? Alvin Kamara. No other major weapons on either team. Who's the best QB ? Dennis Carr [ not saying much ]. If I believe correctly wasn't Winston the backup for Carr when he was injured and missed some games last year ? Like I said you guys are probably correct, I 'm just uncomfortable on being on either side of what I consider bad teams. Out of curiosity : what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night ? Was that a complete one off or are they finally starting to play up to expectations ?

	Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416 ) • 3 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@Baird Keep in mind that when I handicap the Rams, the possibility that Stafford is more injured than anyone realizes is always baked in. 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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3 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Baird

As a Rams fan, how do you like their WC chances? I'm having trouble getting a read on them. Unprepared and mistake-prone was what I expected from MIA, not the Rams. Just feels like there's some angle I'm missing that might have them overvalued right now. Youth? So many of their key contributors are 1st/2nd year guys...

I think the Havenstein injury could be a real problem vs. the Pats. Keion White and Deatrich Wise are a quietly dominant tag team at LDE.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 76 Posts (47 ) • 3 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@KM what did you guys think about Miami on Monday night As a (an before A doesnt sound right). As uh Anaheim Rams fan, I teased 6U+ on MIA +8.5 with the understanding that I have 3U on LAR > 6.5 wins. I lost 1U on the over - same as tonight. 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Baird • 76 Posts (47

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3 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Simple for me. CHUBB preseason came 3 weeks ago vs CIN, then he battled 2 great run Ds in BAL (#1 ypc) & LAC #1 Rush TD allowed. He should keep the chains moving vs #31 ypc D (Saints @ 5.1). Carr had all the time in the world to throw w/ ATL zero pass rush (I watched the 30 min condensed replay & it was obvious), coach firing, blocked FG and missed FGs. TNF would normally be a worry, but not off a bye. I think the trajectory of CLE since Watson injury, SB vs BAL and letdown VS a good LAC team + BYE is a perfect setup for this week. Public has not caught up - THIS IS NOT D. WATSON Browns. JO-K is a big loss though.

Like I said, Chubb should keep the chains moving, Tillman is coming on strong, Moore is getting more rec, Carr wont have time, Njoku is healthy and CLE has 1 small chance for playoffs (plus pride?). I think Walt is good w/ 24-17 final. I'm thinking further apart. GL

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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3 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Betting the Browns is icky, but a few things:

Stefanski is a solid coach, IMO. No coach would have succeeded in the situation management forced upon him with the Watson signing.

I don't know much about Darren Rizzi, but I know this: Teams almost always get a pronounced one-game bump upon an in-season coaching change. Even with that bump, the Saints still would have lost at home to an obviously flat ATL squad had it not been for some last-minute clock mismanagement by the Falcons and three missed Younghoe Koo FGs. Like Marquez Valdez-Scantling's stat line, that victory was an obvious fluke.

Kamara may be the best offensive weapon in this matchup, but beyond him, it's crap like MVS, Foster Moreau and some guy called Mason Tipton for the Saints. I'll take Njoku, a healthy Chubb/Ford RB tag team, and the Tillman/Jeudy/Moore WR trio over what the Saints are trotting out any day. (Small sample size, but since CLE traded Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman is second only to Ja'Marr Chase by many WR performance metrics.) The Saints - already down C Erik McCoy - may also be without the left side of their O-line for this one. The NO offensive depth chart is a disaster.

As for MIA - I'm not sure how legit Monday's win was. Not sure if a game vs. a team as untalented and poorly-coached as LV will provide us any clarity, either. Kinda wait-and-see with MIA. Tua isn't pushing the ball downfield, Tyreek is obviously hurt, and the Austin Jackson injury means a RT Kendall Lamm vs. LDE Maxx Crosby glaring mismatch. A Raiders win wouldn't shock me, but I'm not touching that game.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

After taking a week off, I'm back to make a fool of myself. I have 2 teams I like this week, so I'm quite interested in both Baird & Mr. Bitter's top play this week to fill out my Round Robin Parlay. [1] I'm on the Steelers + 3 at home in a big divisional rivalry game. I assume both teams had circled this game earlier in the year and I expect maximum effort from both teams. Although the home field edge is not as strong as it used to be, it still accounts for something [ referee bias ? ] Anyway, I probably would have played the Steelers at - 1 and maybe - 2 so getting + 3 is a bonus. [2] Why are the Chargers favored by only 1 1/2 against the Bengals at home ? This is a huge Coaching Mismatch. The Bengal defense quit in the second half against the Ravens last week and I prefer to wager on the team with a better running game and a much superior defense. Once again, I would have taken the Chargers up to - 3, so 1 1/2 somewhat reduces the chance of a backdoor cover. There are a lot of games that I wouldn't touch this week as there are some matchups and lines that don't make sense. I hate playing big favorites and I hate playing bad teams. KC - Buff should be a great game to watch but I'm not betting it and I think the line is right and I don't see any advantage for either team. Best of luck to all this week.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 76 Posts (47 ) • 3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
@Karensman - I'm w Bitter as my top play is CLE. I was lucky to tease them before SNF @ +8.5 and continued to add at +7. I have 10.6U on teasers with CLE getting a TD+. I'm going to hit the ML on Sat and will prob go 5-8 units getting near even money. 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Almost forgot: KC/BUF - Leaning KC but probably just gonna sit back and enjoy. The media consensus seems to be that KC has smoke-and-mirrored their way to 9-0 and their fun stops Sunday. Fair, but I wonder if that narrative is just enough blood in the water for Reid/Mahomes. Also not liking BUF possibly down Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid in an all-hands-on-deck game.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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3 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Regarding the CIN/LAC spread - I think bettors are still leaning hard into the "this is a must-win for the Bengals" angle. It's an obvious and fair take, but it can be argued that CIN has been close to (or even in) must-win territory for weeks now, yet they continue laying eggs. Expecting this week to be the week the Bengals suddenly flip the switch is starting to feel like definition of insanity from a betting perspective. Joe Burrow is playing as well as can possibly be expected, yet CIN keeps coming out flat and losing. The CIN O-line sucks, the defense is a one-man show (Hendrickson), and Zac Taylor just can't light a fire under his team while being a miserable in-game manager. All the evidence says that CIN just isn't very good, yet bettors are falling into the trap of valuing them by what they should be instead of what they are.

My top play is CLE. I think the Browns win SU - maybe even comfortably - so getting any points is a gift. The Saints used up all their "We finally fired our crappy coach!" mojo last week and will come down to earth. Matchup wise, all signs point to a "Good Jameis" game (CLE offense getting healthy, gutted NO secondary) and domination from Myles Garrett (injured/weak NO tackles).

I'm passing on BAL/PIT. Always tight rivalry game that could easily hinge on some in-game injury or suspect calls (as you suggested). However, I'm not comfortable with the recent Russell Wilson hype and could see him fade a bit, not unlike Justin Fields' early-season rise and fall. Just a hunch - not bettable just yet.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 24 day(s) ago

Originally I only liked 2 games this week. There is no way that N.O. should be favored by 7 over another NFL team with a rookie QB on the road and the league's worst head coach. However, I can't stomach taking the points with the Panthers because of their overall ineptness and muddled QB situation. I liked the Colts vs. the Vikings, anything over 3 points is a must play on the Colts. But I was reluctant to wager on Richardson who can run but not throw. Then this afternoon I find out that Carr is expected back for N.O. making a Panthers wager lose any value and turning it into a 'no play'. And the Colts announced they were turning to Flacco at QB instead of Richardson. That instantly turns the Colts into a must wager - I agree with Walter, just a little surprised it's not his play of the month but it is still be early in November with a lot of football to play. I have a great deal of respect for Steichen, one of the sharpest new coaches whose teams always seem to overachieve or at least put forth a consistent effort. The move to Flacco tells me that he thinks that the Colts are serious playoff contender and that the organization owes it to the players that the team is willing to do what it takes to win. Richardson may or may not be the answer to the future [ I tend to doubt that he is ] but Flacco gives them a much better chance to win now. I'm not sure that Steichen is a better coach than the Vikings but he is every bit as good and I would not expect him to make a bone headed mistake. Go Colts !

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 24 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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3 month(s) 24 day(s) ago

@Karensman

IND/MIN jumped out at me too - especially with the Darrisaw injury - but I've hesitated knowing the Vikings might get Blake Cashman and T.J. Hockenson back. There's serious potential for a "last team with the ball wins" game with Flacco replacing Richardson, and it feels like I'm usually on the wrong side of those games. I saw the Richardson benching coming about the time he checked himself out of the game vs. HOU, and just went with the OVER on 45.5. Could easily clear 50, IMO.

I'm going to continue to fade the Jets until it's not profitable. Every "Which Teams Will Turn Their Season Around In The Second Half?" article I've read this week has the Jets at the top of the list, which tells me that the public still can't wrap their head around the idea that the Jets are no more than exactly what they appear to be. There's still meat on that bone.

The (hostage) situation with NYJ/Rodgers is similar to CLE/Watson was in that everything is predicated on the QB holding up his end of the bargain, otherwise everything falls apart. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign all of Rodgers' BFFs and every 2019 NFC Pro Bowler - if Rodgers is drastically compromised by age/injury (which is becoming more apparent by the week) then the season is lost, especially with Rodgers apparently resisting treatment in favor of "cayenne and water' home treatment. (Wish I was kidding.)

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

A couple of observations : I agree with Mr. Bitter that teams don't trade their best offensive weapon [ although I'm not certain that Amari Cooper is much of a game changer ] in mid-season if they are a serious contender. I would also agree that with Watson at QB the Browns have a crappy offense and should be shunned for wagering purposes. And for Mr. Baird; yes, there was a reversion to the means after this week's results, although I'm not certain a weekend with most favorites and overs winning is 'normal'. According to the column by Todd Dewey in the LV-Review Journal the books in Vegas got absolutely' killed' this weekend. All 4 afternoon games finished favorite and over which the 'squares' love to bet blindly in parlays. However, don't cry for the books because they have been having a fantastic year so far.

I would like to make one point that Walter should probably take a little more into account; lean towards wagering on the better head coach in a matchup. Example this week Sean Peyton returns to N.O. where he was a fixture for years and he's going up against one of the worst in the league, Dennis Allen. This game may be Denver's Super Bowl, the organization understands they are not contenders this year but are improving and trending the right way. How badly do you think that Peyton wants to win this Thursday night game on national tv ? Probably more than the game last Sunday vs. the Chargers. Walter did take the Broncos which I think is the right side. Just my opinion. Good luck to all

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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3 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Cousins is a good play. Murray has become too unpredictable.

ATL/TB has definite shootout potential, even without Godwin/Evans. The Falcons have no pass rush and no Justin Simmons means more room over the middle/downfield. I have a hunch the Bucs paste together an effective passing game with swings to R. White (he's much better in that role than as a rusher) and a ton of stuff over the middle to Otton, McMillan and maybe even Sterling Shepard. (Shepard was Mayfield's security blanket at Oklahoma. They have history.)

GL and enjoy

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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3 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I understand about showcasing Cooper Kupp for trade purposes but are the Rams really out of contention ? The NFC West looks rather even - with the injuries that SF has, they do not appear dominant. I also think that T.Hill is going to play for Miami on Sunday rather than just dress and sign autographs like he has done since Tua went out. I have no interest in betting the 49ers until McCaffery returns. There is a long history of Super Bowl losing teams underperforming the following year. SF seems to be falling into this pattern. I'm still going with the Eagles, the teams seem to be evenly matched all the way down to mediocre/inept coaches. I like the points and the RB Barkley. I also think that the Seahawks/Bills should be close and the Seahags have the better RB [ Walker ] . I'm not certain that the loss of Metcalf is that severe - Njigbe [ sp ] might surprise everyone. And I did go back and make a play on the Colts [ the more I see of Steichen, he could be the next McVay ! Good luck everyone !

Note : I dropped Stafford from my Fantasy team and replaced him with K. Murray. I was thinking of starting Murray but I put my other QB K. Cousins back in instead. I have a bad feeling about this though, especially when Stafford went off on Thursday.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

	Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416 ) • 3 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
UPDATE: Parsons and Bland are OUT for DAL, with Kendricks questionable. The forecast is now calling for 10-15 MPH winds, so weather shouldn't be too much of a problem. Seriously questioning my DAL pick now, especially after reading a deep dive into DAL's extreme vulnerability to outside zone running schemes. Also worried about Nick Bosa taking turns on DAL's turnstile OTs. 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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4 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Karensman

Regarding Cooper Kupp - I think the Rams are trying to maximize his trade value before the Nov. 5 deadline. Get him as healthy as possible for a high-volume showcase game tonight, then sell high. Maybe squeeze a 3rd-rounder from a slot WR-needy team like PIT or something.

Yeah, Baker Mayfield's slim MVP chances may have evaporated with the Godwin injury. Godwin's slot role is the fulcrum of Liam Coen's scheme. Huge loss. If any NFC QB will challenge Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes for MVP it's probably Jared Goff at this point. Longshot though. (I'm guessing Lamar gets his third. Feels like he's on a mission.)

My favorite plays this week are IND and DAL.

I caught IND +5.5 figuring that line would tighten up once/if Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner are cleared to play. Even if they don't, the HOU defense is soft up the middle and severely banged up right now, and the offense is in an awful rut without Nico Collins. IND could easily win SU.

Caught DAL +4.5. That line could tighten, too. (Bland, Parsons, Kendricks, Deebo) There's value in fading SF right now, IMO. They're still being priced closer to recent 49ers vintage than what they actually are right now. Their offense is injury-plagued, their defense is susceptible and they have a real problem at kicker. With 25-30 MPH winds in the forecast, Aubrey could give DAL a huge advantage in this one - assuming he doesn't miss the game for jury duty.

I still like the LAC's Wild Card chances, especially once their CBs and WRs get healthy. Beyond BUF/BAL/HOU/KC, the AFC is a jumble. I think PIT and DEN will cool down and have seen no indication that Jeff Ulbrich and Aaron Rodgers are capable of turning the Jets around.

The Titans just suck. Ran Carthon is making all the wrong decisions, from letting Mike Vrabel go to overpaying for Spagnuolo scheme-specific fool's gold L'Jarius Sneed.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter: I had forgot that Baker used to be the QB for Cleveland. He was good but not great but the Browns fell in love with Watson and gave up the 'farm' to acquire him and set the franchise back for an extended period of time. Yes, Baker has improved and was having an incredible season, but he just lost his top 2 receivers which will probably kill his MVP chances. If he is as good as I think he is; he could still be a 'wager on' QB until the oddsmakers catch up.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Baird & Mr. Bitter : I'm not crazy about this week's schedule. Too many injuries to impact the games and I only get to Laughlin on Thursday this week leaving me trying to guess whether Puka or Cooper are going to play or Jaylen Daniels, hell, even A. Rodgers has an injury designation. I will only be making one play : I like the Eagles getting 2 1/2 against the Bengals. Each team's offense features 2 outstanding receivers, a good QB and Philly has the better running game [ although I do like Chase Brown ] . Both coach's are [ bet against coach's] BUT I am a big fan of the Eagles Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio has turned every defense he worked with into a solid unit by stressing physical play and an aggressive pass rush. I may be wrong , I'm not a fan of the Eagles [ Bear fan ] but I think the game should be close and I will go with the superior [ hopefully ] defense . I would like the game better if it goes to -3 but that is very unlikely.

I'd like to add another comment : what is going on with the Rams ? Cooper Kupp is apparently going to play on Thursday ? He's been out for 3 weeks and wasn't available last Sunday but he miraculously heals in 4 days to play on Thursday night ? If he was that close to playing last Sunday why didn't McVay activate him and use him as a decoy ? Does that mean if he activates him for tonight's game is he using him as a decoy knowing that Kupp will have 10 days before his next game ?

I think we can put the Dolphin's coach on the loser's list. I'm done wagering on the Dolphins no matter the situation. Ditto for the Cardinals Coach who called back-to-back 'Tush Push' from midfield on 3rd and fourth down late in a close game. One of the smallest players Kyler Murray [ yet fastest and quite elusive ] used on back to back QB sneaks which failed should have cost them the game .

I'm a big fan of Justin Herbert but their offense is not very good. Harbaugh will squeeze some wins out of them but they are not playoff contenders until they bring in some talent.

And are the Titans 'tanking' the season hoping to land a #1 draft choice ?

That's all, I wish you good luck this week, hopefully you can find some winners and make a killing.

;

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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4 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Karensman

With you on the LAC/ARI OVER.

We know about ARI's defense, but they also happen to be the worst defense vs. explosive runs, and JK Dobbins just happens to be near the top of the league in explosive run %...with Slater and Alt now healthy. The Chargers will run at will.

On the other side, LAC are near the bottom in explosive passing plays allowed, and might be without their top 3 CBs and likely without LOLB Joey Bosa to take advantage of ARI's O-line weak link at RT. Murray is overdue an eruption. I think that 44 gets dusted.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter: I'm short on time so I have to make this quick but are you a comedian or joke writer for one ? Not only is your analysis very informative but I spilled my coffee this morning laughing because it was hilarious. I have one quick question though : who is the QB that Cleveland kicked to the curb that is a candidate for MVP ? Are you talking Flacco ? BYW, I'm hoping that the Colts go back to Richardson this week.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Baird : Obviously my best bet this week was Denver, there is nothing that really stands out for the rest of the games, but I have Denver in a parlay with the Dolphins + 3, and also with Arizona Over 44. Arizona can't stop anyone [ Defense is atrocious ] and Herbert and Murray scream shootout although Harbaugh will try to run the ball and eat clock. Also, I haven't read anything lately but in the last few years the over has been very strong [ roughly 60% ] when teams are playing out of conference [ AFC vs. NFC ] . The thinking is that the teams only play on a semi-occasional basis so the offense has the advantage over the defense. As far as the Dolphins, I'm probably going against my own advice [ Colts head coach > Dolphins head coach ] but Colts injuries are staggering and I expect a close game. Dolphins coming off a bye and Huntley had to be helped by 2 weeks to learn offense, get in game shape, etc. but I don't like the bet enough to make any serious bet.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

	Baird • 76 Posts (47 ) • 4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@Karensman You make some great points. Any plays you like this week? 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Karensman

I don't think that Amari Cooper was ever really a game-changer. Like Walt said, his value lies in route-running/efficiency/reliability; a Henry Ellard/Isaac Bruce-type that remains an effective starter even at 33-34 years old. I don't think he's slipped this season - I think he was just done with waving at Watson's inaccurate passes. (He was visibly frustrated the last few games.)

Reliability is exactly what Josh Allen needs at WR. It was good of CLE to trade Cooper to a contender that will feed him properly. It was also a clear indication that they know the season is lost. Laying cabbage on a team that has packed it in and is led by a very expensive Zach Wilson just doesn't seem like a good idea. DEF/ST TDs aren't going to happen every week.

I shudder to think what the CLE offense will look like now. A million Jerry Jeudy wind sprints broken up by the occasional dropped pass I guess. Elijah Moore...I don't even bother to check if he's active or inactive during DFS research anymore because it really doesn't matter. The Browns better hope Njoku stays healthy. (He won't. The downside of being an Adonis is that you're also a pulled muscle waiting to happen.)

What you said about recognizing and getting ahead of the curve on teams that are improving/trending in the right direction is such an important aspect of betting. Foundational, really. I always try to sniff out the dog with a sustainable plan/direction vs. the directionless favorite.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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5 month(s) 19 day(s) ago

Walter : Good Luck to you this season, I've always enjoyed your information, articles, and selections and have been a fan of yours since I retired from the Race/Sports industry in Nevada over 12 years ago. This will be my last comment and please don't take this the wrong way : I have never paid money for a subscription or a tout service, I enjoy listening to other opinions but I always use my own judgement in regards to wagering. There are other free sites on the internet to find NFL information which is what I will have to resort to. It is somewhat unfathomable to me that someone would pay money to see your selections especially when you have been a loser 2 of the last 3 years.

Anyway let me give you my 2 selections for opening weekend; I like the Giants getting points at home vs. the Vikings [ more of fade of the Vikings who I anticipate will have a bad year ], and I like the Jags with the points [ 3 1/2 ? ] vs. the Dolphins. I will also be making a wager on the Jags to go over their win total, and to win their division, and even the AFC. BTW, if there is any team that will be minimally affected by the heat and humidity in Miami it would be another team from Florida. Thanks once again and good luck to you and everybody else on this site !

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 years 1 month(s) ago

to Mr. Bitter ; How is TEN supposed to stay close ? D. Hopkins is a capable receiver and T. Spears has some speed as a change of pace RB. IF the Jaguars were healthy, I think it would be a different story. I'm not sure what to expect from Lawrence who is so beat up, they may actually be better with their backup [ can't believe I'm saying that ! ] . I also wonder if the Jaguar players are all in on making the playoffs. In all likelihood they will be one and done once they get in anyway. If they win, they would just be postponing some tee times another week. They have had plenty of chances to wrap up first place and they failed miserably. They are not playing well enough to be favored over any NFL team on the road. BTW, I don't agree with your assessment that Tannehill is damaged goods: this looks like a perfect situation for a veteran QB to show that he is NOT washed up and could have a future as an experienced backup on n NFL team. He definitely won't have 'jitters' about starting in this game. I would actually like the Jaguars chances better if Levis was the QB for the Titans. Just my opinion and good luck with your bets.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 446 Posts (416

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1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Not sure why JAX wouldn't be all in on making the playoffs. They seemed pretty focused on their task last week. They tightened up around their backup QB for a clean, workmanlike W. That's what good teams do.

The Jags are a young team who have been dealing with a steady stream of key injuries this season; there were bound to be some inconsistencies. Still, the Pederson Jags usually beat the teams they're supposed to beat (especially in division), and key guys like Robinson, Campbell, Cisco, Kirk, etc, are being folded into the mix after absences. Assuming Lawrence is in one piece, I see no reason why JAX can't avenge that Week 14 road loss to CLE in the playoffs. (Sorry, but Flacco is going to turn into a pumpkin here real soon.)

Ryan Tannehill: 33.3 QBR, 64.7 CMP%, 2 TD/6 INT, sacked 11 times in his last two games. Damaged goods.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 years 2 month(s) ago

@j_oliver_23 I'll admit that I am a big Bear fan but I try not to be a 'homer'. The first 4 games for the Bears were a 'nightmare'. Their best OL Tevin Jenkins was on IR. Two other OL were hurt and in and out of the lineup as well as their center. Their OL was arguably the worst in the league. Internal distractions also plagued the team. The Def Coordinator took a surprise Personal Leave just before the start of week 2 and was subsequently terminated by HR for an 'undisclosed reason'. Less than a week later their RB coach was also canned by HR. At virtually the same time the Bears cut C. Claypool for lack of effort, insubordination, whatever. When Jenkins came back and other OL members got healthier, the offense picked up although the coaching staff blew a late lead against Denver and they did the same fade against the Lions in Game 1 against them. Those fades cost them 2 very winnable games. However, J. Fields after returning from IR is beginning to show the type of ability that he has, but had not yet been able to translate that talent into victories because of the quality of the team he was on last year and early this year. I would heartily agree with you that the early season Bears were one of the worst [ if not the worst ] teams in the league. Walter does a tremendous job of focusing on injuries and the impact those injuries have on NFL teams. Right now, the Bears are relatively healthy unlike early in the year. Several rookies have shown signs of improvement and the acquisition of M. Sweat has dramatically improved the Defense. Right now, the Bears have a young, improving team on an upward trajectory. I do not like their coaching staff, but they are very much underrated in my opinion. I also think that Green Bay is rapidly improving and also dangerous. As a Bear fan I detest GB but right now I think the Pack are better than Detroit who have suffered several significant injuries and are not playing anywhere near the level they did early in the season. We do not have much of a 'track record' on Lion's coach Campbell. The players seem to love playing for him, the media fawns over him but he has yet to prove that he is the highly successful coach that the Media loves to portray him. Could he have pushed his team too hard early in the year and the team has peaked ? Are all the injuries they suffered responsible for their subpar play lately ? They jumped out to a big lead down in NOLA but were actually fortunate to hang on and win and cover. I am in total agreement with Walt that the Saints have talent but are poorly coached and in my opinion 'counterfeit'. However, opinions are like a--holes, everyone has one so don't sweat the Power Rankings but use them in your decision making as far as wagering. Al least for me cashing winning tickets is what this is all about. Good Luck the rest of the season.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter : I have to agree with your assessment of the Browns as no longer being 'loaded'. Losing Chubb is/was a difference maker, there is no getting around it. BTW, Walter spoke rather glowingly of P.J. Walker as a good quality backup QB which he performed well in that role last year for the Panthers. The Bears signed him in the offseason to be the backup to Justin Fields this year. Just before the season started: the Bears cut Walker and handed the backup job to an undrafted division 2A quarterback. Walker's exhibition performance was terrible. In addition to releasing Walker, the Bears signed Peterman [ worst QB in NFL history ? ] for their 3rd string QB. Although I generally agree with Walt's assessment that many teams perform well for their backup QB, I don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling for th Browns in this game. If Walker was still good why did they start the rookie Dorian Thompson Gray last week who was clearly not ready ?

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@You are 100% correct. The Raiders organization is incredibly dysfunctional. Carr was performing at solid level when the team made the decision to start Stidham and bench Carr whose contract would extend if he suffered an injury. Not surprisingly the rest of the team basically quit on the rest of the year. Carr was not 'benched for Stidham' because of performance. 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 years 4 month(s) ago

I always make my own line early Monday and decide on most of my picks before I read Walter's write up on Tuesday. I am a long suffering Bears fan and follow them closely but very seldom bet on one of their games because I want to keep a 'rooting interest' without any money at stake. Anyway, I told my long time Bear fan and friend this morning that I was very interested in betting the Bears this week and told him I made the line Wash - 6 and asked him to check for me and he said -6 1/2. He then asked why the Bears ? I said :

[1.] Their best [ and most physical ] o-lineman Tevin Jenkins was injured in preseason and put on IR for 4 weeks . He is due to come off IR this week which will greatly improve the O-line.

[2.] It appears that Chase Claypool was a major distraction to the team, which along with their Defensive Coordinator basically being fired [ ? ] , let go [?], or who knows what that was all about. It appears that the team was definitely not focused and after the team's performance against the Broncos I would anticipate a 'rally together' team moment this week. I think the Bears are probably better off being on the road this week to avoid the distractions of everyone telling them 'how bad they are, or you guys suck' and after a tough loss you're probably better getting right back at it as quickly as possible. Granted the Skins are in the same boat but their #1 competition from the start of training camp had to have been the Eagles and they had to have unloaded everything they had in an attempt to beat the Eagles and just came up agonizingly short. I don't anticipate the same 'juice or urgency' against the winless Bears who they should handle easily.

[3.] If the Skins were considered a top 10 level team, I could see them overcoming the 'bad spot' they are in but I don't think that from a talent perspective they are really that much better than the Bears. I'm also one of the few that think that Fields is the better Qb which is a huge plus. I'm not interested in betting the Bears to win just that I don't like the chances of the Skins covering 6, 6 1/2, or even better yet 7

[4.] However I'm not confident that Eberflus is a competent head coach so I won't be going overboard on the amount of the wager.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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1 years 5 month(s) ago

I'm probably posting this in the wrong area/spot but Walter is looking for Denver to 'surprise' the Dolphins because the Dolphins defense stinks [ among other reasons ] . I would be the first to admit the talent level on Miami's defense pales in comparison to their offense BUT the Dolphins defensive coordinator is Vince Fazio - formerly the head coach of the Broncos. Not only is Fazio one of the top D- coordinators in the league, he may be looking to stick it to his former team. Just saying,

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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5 years 3 month(s) ago

@Tyler two Tyler, I'm guessing that you are a Saints fan and that's fine. But when it comes to betting; it's all about winning the bet. 6 points are a lot of points in a divisional matchup on the road . I would be interested in betting the Saints if they were laying less than 3 points but at 6 points that is not what most serious bettors [ Walter included ] are inclined to do. Frankly this game screams "back -door cover" as Winston has been pretty good throwing the ball this year . I would gladly concede that Peyton has the coaching edge but I also have a lot of respect for Arians. There's also that possibility of the Saints wearing their black jerseys on a warm humid day in Tampa [ I wish that Walter could provide an information source for what uniforms will be worn ] that screams that Tampa is the side to bet.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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5 years 3 month(s) ago

Good comments. I don't follow the money aspect of the players so I will definitely defer to your expertise there. As a long time Bear [ and NFL fan ] I must put the blame for this season's decline squarely on the shoulders of Matt Nagy. I know it is fashionable in Chicago to blame Trubisky but the kid has some talent and skills but is he being utilized properly ? He is more effective when he is mobile in the pocket and throws well on the run. I do not believe Nagy has done a lot for his confidence, the loss to the Chargers [ eerily similar to the playoff loss to the Eagles ] featured a lack of confidence in Trubisky/Offense to get closer and instead relied on the kicker. It's never the coach's fault when the kicker misses - it's the kicker's fault. if the Bears had run another play and had a turnover it becomes the coaches fault . The Bears have a revolving door at tight end, none are talented. They may have the worst special teams coach in the NFL despite the best punt returner and best kickoff returner in the league. I don't know enough about Pagano but the defense has regressed. I remember a few games back with both Hicks out and Roquan Smith a no-show the Bears started #44 Kwiatkowski [ sp ] who had a sensational game. #44 [ easier than trying to spell his name ], is a regular on special teams. But when the Bears started getting gashed on defense because they couldn't stop the run, why wasn't he inserted ? It would be better on the defense if #44 was making tackles instead of Eddie Jackson or Dix. Coachimg, coaching, coaching. We all thought that Nagy was going to be a great coach but it is beginning to look like he was a one trick pony ]

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	Thats called Football (Anonymous Poster) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@chuckster No doubt the Lions SHOULD have scored more but credit the Packers defense. And if they lost the game solely because of that, then fine. But the refs interfered so much that it cost the Lions a chance to put the game away. Simple 0 0

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	TED BUNDY (Anonymous Poster) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@time to sign THAN THAN THAN. GO BACK TO KINDERGARTEN FOOL 0 1

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	BCE INC (Anonymous Poster) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@chuckster YOU’RE A CREEP SON. YOU BIATCH ASS TEASER MUST AVE WON YOU 50 CENTS SON. GO GET SOME BUBBLE GUM SON. GO JERK OFF TO THE REFS SON 0 1

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	time to sign • 630 Posts (473 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@Karensman The NFL refs love Brady than there is a gap than they love Rodgers than there is a gap to the rest of the league. Some thought that NOS would get favourable calls against the LAR earlier this year after the championship game stuff but the refs took away a TD from NOS with their incompetence. The NFL refs are not competent enough to try and help one team over the other. 1 0

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	GangGang (Anonymous Poster) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@Karensman To me if the NFL was gonna play into and fix a side I’d think lions will prob be the ones to get that. Considering they are the ones that lost due to it. It makes lions vs Minnesota all the more reason to lean heavy on lions. 0 0

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	$$$$ (Anonymous Poster) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@Peter Griffen It also brought the full game under. Not to mention the pack half time line closed at 4.5 and the second half under hit... 1 0

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	chuckster • 366 Posts (318 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@Peter Griffen: Lions shot themselves in the foot the entire game. They ended up with ONE touchdown and FIVE field goals.... The Lions "screwed" themselves. As did the Packers to themselves for quarters 2, 3 and 4. No doubt a bad call(s,)...happens almost every game for every team through the season. GL going forward. 2 3

	Karensman • 28 Posts (11 ) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
Gentlemen : Just a question or something to ponder : after the Lions were screwed by the refs on Monday night, will the refs look to "show favoritism" to the Lions this week . And/or look to screw over the Packers this week ? ? 0 3

	Peter Griffen (Anonymous Poster) • 5 years 4 month(s) ago
@Karensman neither. Garauntee that none of those refs will ref either of these teams again this season. Those refs needs to be investigated. The hands to the face was total BS flag to give the pack a win. Nothing against the pack but lions got screwed over. Refs don't want to be scrutinised so being favorable will lend them in a hot seat again. 0 0

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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5 years 4 month(s) ago

@Tyler Two I agree with you that the Wash. Foreskins shouldn't be favored on the road. Hell does anybody know who their qb is going to be ? I know that the Dolphins are trying to "mail in their season" but they can still win a few games and still be likely to get a top draft choice. Miami in October can be a strange place to play, not all NFL teams handle the heat & humidity. Plus the Dolphins are coming off a bye so their players are more rested and less banged up.This looks like a game to avoid.

Karensman • 28 Posts (11

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5 years 5 month(s) ago

@Walter: Good luck this year, I enjoy reading your selections and analysis. I would like to make a comment on your analysis of the Bear-Packer game. I am a long time Bear fan and I am confused by your assessment of Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan as being elite players. Most Bear fans would classify them [ especially Callahan ] as mediocre. Amos is a solid run stuffing safety, he became effective when the Bears added Eddie Jackson an all pro safety to cover the deep throws. Having an outstanding pass rush also helped. That said I'm not interested in betting this game because of Aaron Rodgers. The percentages say that a bettor should always take an elite quarterback getting points. Anyway thanks and good luck. By the way, how did you find out that Miami will be wearing their white jerseys ? I'm interested in finding out if Tampa and Jacskonville will be wearing white also.