Open Rants by vaughanmoore1

I like to predict who will bust and who will be a steal based on the pick they went at because I can look back at it a few years later and check if I was correct. Keep in mind, these are Day 1 AND Day 2 players, because 2nd and 3rd round players can be busts too. Here we go:

Busts:

Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

I personally think Wentz has the tools: the arm, size, intangibles, feet, accuracy, and pro-style system experience. However, the reason why I think he'll bust is because it's simply too big of a jump in competition. I have a feeling he will sit behind Bradford for a couple of seasons and never develop because he will not be able to handle the speed of the NFL game.

Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss

This is a super obvious one. People like Nkemdiche for some reason, but I don't see any reason to draft him other than his raw athletic ability. He barely has a position, he can't finish tackles, rush the passer, beat double teams, put effort into improving himself, be a good teammate (remember when he tried to throw Laremy Tunsil under the bus at the combine? He acted like a high school girl gossiping about her friends), or stay out of the limelight. He is also an idiot who plays like a chicken without its head on the field, firing aimlessly into the opposing backfield with no awareness of the ball carrier. He sucks at football. Whoever picks him will regret their decision, no matter what round they take him in. It angers me when people mock him to the Bills in their 1st round mock drafts.

Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

This may be surprising to some, but I think Stanley is going to be a disappointment at the next level. The reason is because he is weak and lacks passion for the game. He is said to be somewhat lazy, and I could see it in-game, as he would slack off at times- more than typical top-flight prospects. He is a below average run blocker who will mightily struggle with tough, bully defenders like Khalil Mack and J.J. Watt. I also think he'll fall farther than most people think in the draft. 

Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky

This is also a popular bust pick, but I have a different reason. I think he's clean off-the-field. People completely overreact to that stuff. He had great production at Eastern Kentucky, but that will come with an asterisk due to the low level of competition. People also overreacted to his Senior Bowl performance. There weren't many quality tackles he was going against, and it's easier to play well for just one important week of practice rather than a real game. I just don't see him playing well in the NFL. I won't count out the possibility of him becoming a decent backup situational pass rusher, though.

Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State

Correa is a late riser who I'm not all that impressed with. I don't think he is strong enough to combat quality NFL offensive linemen. Because of this, he avoids using power moves to evade blockers. This will be a huge problem in at the next level, and I don't think he has the athleticism to make up for his lack of power. I do not see Correa panning out in the NFL.

Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

This may also be surprising. Doctson was super productive in college in a high volume passing scheme, and dominated many CBs he played against. However, he played against Big 12 defenses, which absolutely sucked last year. Every team shredded Big 12 defenses. He is very good as a jump ball receiver, as he can out-leap shorter corners, but he is mediocre in every other regard. He could become a passable #2 receiver, but I cannot see him living up to his 1st round billing.

Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia (only if the team runs a 4-3 defense)

This is absolutely nothing against Floyd talent-wise. I think he has great length and athleticism. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the size to play as anything but a stand-up 3-4 OLB. The Bucs are probably going to take him with the 9th pick, which is problematic because they run a 4-3. Floyd would get eaten up as a 4-3 end because he is too skinny to take on offensive linemen at the line of scrimmage. He would get knocked over as they get leverage on him at pad level. Because of his lack of versatility and lanky body type, I think Floyd will bust, assuming the team that drafts him runs a 4-3 defense.

Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh

Tyler Boyd's game just doesn't translate well to the NFL. He's a jack of all trades, master-of-none type of #2 receiver. He lacks elite speed, size, athleticism, and hands. He would be a quality mid-round pick as a depth player, but he's going to disappoint a team if they pick him in the first 2 rounds. 

Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State

I loved Ogbah at first, but I'm having second thoughts on him. The reason is he is extremely inconsistent on tape. He explodes into the backfield one play and gets thrown to the ground the next play. He had tons of production in college, and certainly looks the part, but struggled to give consistent effort or maintain a high level of play. He would be a very solid mid round pick, but I just don't see him panning out as a 1st rounder. 

Artie Burns, CB, Miami

Burns is a very late riser, much like Correa. While he has the size and length to be a #1 corner, he's just too raw to be taken where he's being projected in mock drafts. He didn't have very good college tape and never locked down the opposing receiver. I like other corners a lot better than him and I think he'll be overdrafted and a disappointment.

Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah State

There are some players I have an unexplainable gut feeling towards, and one of those players this year is Kyler Fackrell. He had barely any production at a lower end D1 school, and while he has key traits of a quality defender, I think he's going to bust.

Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State

Hackenberg was a great high school player, and had an awesome freshman year at Penn State, but just didn't fit in a college-based system. As a result, he struggled the past two years with James Franklin at the helm. I think he is indeed responsible in ruining Hackenberg's career, as well as the lack of talent around him. Ultimately, I think he never recovers from the damage Franklin's scheme did to his learning curve. 

Now we go on to the steals. These players aren't necessarily late rounders you've never heard of, but, in my opinion, they will end up significantly exceeding their expectations based on where they are projected to be picked.

Steals: